Er ministeren enig i, at note 14 i IPCCs rapport "Mitigation of Climate Change 2014" (gengivet nedenfor) giver udtryk for, at det i forbindelse med modelberegninger er forbundet med endog særdeles store vanskeligheder at forudsige en bestemt klimaudvikling som følge af de valgte (simple) antagelser i et komplekst styret system, og at man ikke bør forvente, at modellernes resultat vil svare virkeligheden?
14) The long-term scenarios assessed in WGIII were generated primarily by large-scale, integrated models that project many key characteristics of mitigation pathways to mid-century and beyond. These models link many important human systems (e. g., energy, agriculture and land use, economy) with physical processes associated with climate change (e. g., the carbon cycle). The models approximate cost-effective solutions that minimize the aggregate economic costs of achieving mitigation outcomes, unless they are specifically constrained to behave otherwise. They are simplified, stylized representations of highly-complex, real-world processes, and the scenarios they produce are based on uncertain projections about key events and drivers over often century-long timescales. Simplifications and differences in assumptions are the reason why output gen- erated from different models, or versions of the same model, can differ, and projections from all models can differ considerably from the reality that unfolds. [Box TS.7, 6.2]
Dato: 27-04-2015
Status: Endeligt besvaret
Emne:
klimapolitik og klimaforandringer