Klima-, Energi- og Bygningsudvalget
Til:
Dato:
Klima-, energi- og bygningsministeren
27. april 2015
Udvalget udbeder sig ministerens besvarelse af følgende spørgsmål:
KEB alm. del
Spørgsmål 94
Er ministeren enig i, at note 14 i IPCCs rapport "Mitigation of Climate Change
2014" (gengivet nedenfor) giver udtryk for, at det i forbindelse med modelbe-
regninger er forbundet med endog særdeles store vanskeligheder at forudsige
en bestemt klimaudvikling som følge af de valgte (simple) antagelser i et kom-
plekst styret system, og at man ikke bør forvente, at modellernes resultat vil
svare virkeligheden?
14) The long-term scenarios assessed in WGIII were generated primarily by
large-scale, integrated models that project many key characteristics of mitiga-
tion pathways to mid-century and beyond. These models link many important
human systems (e. g., energy, agriculture and land use, economy) with physi-
cal processes associated with climate change (e. g., the carbon cycle). The
models approximate cost-effective solutions that minimize the aggregate eco-
nomic costs of achieving mitigation outcomes, unless they are specifically
constrained to behave otherwise. They are simplified, stylized representations
of highly-complex, real-world processes, and the scenarios they produce are
based on uncertain projections about key events and drivers over often centu-
ry-long timescales. Simplifications and differences in assumptions are the re-
ason why output gen- erated from different models, or versions of the same
model, can differ, and projections from all models can differ considerably from
the reality that unfolds. [Box TS.7, 6.2]
Spørgsmålet er stillet efter ønske fra Villum Christensen (LA).
Svaret bedes sendt elektronisk til spørgeren på [email protected] og
til [email protected].
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