MOF, Alm.del - 2024-25 - Bilag 191: Henvendelse af 13/12-24 fra Rådet for Grøn Omstilling om danske metan-udledninger og det globale metanløfte

Miljø- og Fødevareudvalget 2024-25
MOF Alm.del Bilag 191
Offentligt

REPORT

Methane Emissions

in a Danish Context

Mapping of Denmark's current and projected methane

emissions and how we can reduce them

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GREEN TRANSITION DENMARK

Green Transition Denmark

is an independent environmental organization that works to

promote a green and sustainable transformation of society.

The Methane Matters Coalition

consists of experienced non-governmental organisations

working to significantly reduce methane emissions in the relevant agriculture, waste and

energy sectors by 2030. Green Transition Denmark is a partner organisation of the Coalition.

This report is funded by the Methane Matters Coalition

Published:

December 2024

Authors:

Lærke Kjærbye-Thygesen (Policy Officer at Green Transition Denmark), Christian

Ege (Senior Consultant at Green Transition Denmark), and Niklas Sjøbeck Jørgensen (Senior

Policy Officer at Green Transition Denmark).

Acknowledgements:

Thanks to our colleagues for their input and feedback: Erik Tang (Green

Transition Denmark), Trine Langhede (Green Transition Denmark), and Julie Bangsgaard

Abrahams (Green Transition Denmark).

Green Transition Denmark / Rådet for Grøn Omstilling

Kompagnistræde 22, 3

1208 København K

Danmark

[email protected]

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GREEN TRANSITION DENMARK

RECOMMENDATIONS

The Danish Government must develop a National Methane Action Plan with a

reduction target of 40-45%.

2. The short-term perspective (GWP20) should be incorporated in the decision-

making as the deadline of most climate goals are within the next 20-25 years.

3. Danish agriculture should be transformed resulting in less animal production and

more plant-based food production

4. The trade-offs in the use of mitigation technologies must be thoroughly explored

and taken into consideration before they are implemented.

5. Oil and fossil natural gas extraction must be phased out before 2040. This is

possible, according to our recent energy transition scenario.

6. The target of phasing-out the use of oil and gas boilers must be advanced to

2030.

7. Methane leakage from biogas plants must be closely monitored and addressed,

including the real impact of the new regulation on methane leakage.

8. The production and use of biogas must be in accordance with a significant

reduction in livestock numbers and feedstock for plants should primarily be

based on residues.

9. Biogas should only be used where there are no better alternatives – e.g. in peak

load production (supplementary to wind and solar power) and in industries

requiring high temperatures.

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Table of Contents

Danish Summary…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…4

Executive Summary………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….5

The Global Methane Pledge (GMP)..………………………………………………………………………………………....6

Why Is Methane Important?…………………………………………………………………………………………………..…7

Global Warming Potential………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….7

Sources of Methane Emissions

……………………………………………………………………………………………………..…...9

National Methane Action Plans……………………………………………………………………………………………….10

How to Develop a Danish Methane Action Plan…………………………………………………………………………………………11

Sources of Methane Emissions in Denmark…………………………………………………………………………….12

Projection of Danish Methane Emissions………………………………………………………………………………………………….13

Agriculture Sector…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..………15

Enteric Fermentation………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...…….16

Feed additives and optimization are not enough……………………………………………………………………………………………….…….17

Manure Management………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………18

Waste Sector………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..………..19

Anaerobic Digestions at Biogas Plants……………………………………………………………………………………..………………19

Solid Waste Disposal………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..……………..20

Energy Sector…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…..21

Energy Industries and Other Sectors…………………………………………………………………………………………….………….21

Gas in the heating sector should be phased out……………………………………………………………………………………..…………….…22

Fugitive Emissions…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…….22

Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)………………………………………………………………..23

Conclusions……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………24

Green Transition Denmark’s 9 Recommendations Elaborated…………………………………………………25

References………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…………………27

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Danish Summary

Metan er en kortlivet, men kraftig drivhusgas, der er årsag

til cirka en tredjedel af den totale globale opvarmning, vi

oplever i dag. Metan opvarmer planeten omkring 30

gange mere end CO2 beregnet over en 100-årig periode,

men over 80 gange mere over en 20-årig periode. Jo mere

bekymrede vi er for global opvarmning på den korte bane,

jo mere bør vi derfor fokusere på at reducere metan-

udledninger. Med de fleste klimamål inden for de næste

20-25 år, og en snarlig overskridelse af 1.5°C-målet og

flere ’tipping points’, kan reduktioner af metan-udledning

til atmosfæren skabe hurtige og markante effekter på

opvarmningen og købe tid til mere langsigtede CO2-

reduktionsstrategier.

I 2021 lancerede EU sammen med USA the Global

Methane Pledge (GMP) på COP26, hvis primære mål er at

reducere de globale metan-udledninger med 30% i 2030

i forhold til 2020. I marts 2024 havde 158 lande skrevet

under på GMP, deriblandt Danmark. Fremskrivninger fra

Klima, Energi og Forsyningsministeriet viser dog, at

Danmark kun ser ud til at reducere deres metan-

udledninger med 10-15%. De danske metan-udledninger

kommer fra henholdsvis landbrugs-, affalds-, energi- og

LULUCF-sektoren, hvor landbruget står for klart den

største andel af udledningerne.

Effekterne af den grønne trepart er ikke medtaget, da

effekterne heraf endnu er usikre. Tilskuddet til

fodertilsætningsstoffet Bovaer vurderes at bidrage til en

metanreduktion på op til fem procentpoint i 2030 i forhold

til 2020, mens det er usikkert, hvor meget antallet af

husdyr vil blive reduceret som følge af aftalen og dermed,

hvad den tilhørende metanreduktion vil være. Derudover

vil aftalen øge metanudledningen fra lavbundsjorder, men

den samlede klimaeffekt af vådlægningen vil dog være

positiv. Rådet for Grøn Omstilling forventer ikke, at

effekterne

trepartsaftalen

vil

reducere

metanudledningen tilstrækkeligt og er fortsat skeptiske

over for potentielle negative sideeffekter af Bovaer.

Rådet for Grøn Omstilling anbefaler, at den danske

regering udvikler en national metan-handlingsplan med et

reduktionsmål på 40-45 %. Dette reduktionsmål er

nødvendigt for at sikre overensstemmelse med Paris-

aftalen og the Global Methane Pledge, og er vurderet

omkostningseffektivt

gennemførligt

FN’s

miljøprogram. Fokus skal være på at transformere

landbruget mod mere plantebaseret produktion for at

reducere metan-udledningerne fra sektoren, der i dag står

for 80% af udledningerne. Dette kan kun lade sig gøre ved

en kombination af strukturel og teknologisk omstilling.

Det skal samtidig sikres, at teknologiske virkemidler ikke

har negative sideeffekter, f.eks. på dyrevelfærd og

biodiversitet.

De største kilder til metan-udledninger i Danmark er

husdyrenes fordøjelsesprocesser og husdyrgødning i

landbrugssektoren,

deponering

vådområder

affald

LULUCF-sektoren,

metan-lækage

fra

fast

biogasanlæg i affaldssektoren, samt flygtige emissioner

fra gas i energisektoren. For at leve op til hvad Danmark

skrev under på i the Global Methane Pledge, skal

Danmark udforme en national metan-handlingsplan, der

viser hvordan Danmark vil reducere sine metan-

udledninger med mindst 30% i 2030 i forhold til 2020.

Metan-udledninger fra energisektoren bør reduceres ved

at udfase olie- og naturgasudvinding inden 2040.

Installation af nye olie- og gasfyr bør straks forbydes, og

de eksisterende bør udfases senest i 2030.

Desuden skal metan-lækage fra biogasanlæg overvåges,

grænseværdierne skal gradvist skærpes, og de skal

håndhæves. Biogasproduktionens størrelse skal kunne

kombineres med en betydelig reduktion i antallet af

husdyr. Biogas skal kun bruges, hvor der ikke er bedre

alternativer, f.eks. som supplement til vind og sol, samt til

forsyning af industrier med særlige behov.

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Executive Summary

Methane is a short-lived but powerful greenhouse gas that

is responsible for about a third of the total net global

warming we are experiencing today. Methane warms the

planet about 30 times more than CO2 calculated over a

100-year period, but over 80 times more over a 20-year

period. Therefore, the more concerned we are about

global warming in the short term, the more emphasis we

must put on cutting methane emissions. With most

climate targets due to be met within the next 20-25 years,

and the threat of soon exceeding the 1.5°C target and

multiple ‘tipping points’, reducing methane emissions can

have a rapid and significant impact on global warming and

buy time for longer-term CO2 mitigation strategies.

In 2021, the EU and the US launched the Global Methane

Pledge (GMP) at COP26. The main goal of the GMP is to

reduce global methane emissions by 30% in 2030

compared to 2020. By March 2024, 158 countries had

signed the GMP, including Denmark. However, projections

from the Danish Ministry of Climate, Energy and Utilities

show that Denmark will only be reducing its methane

emissions by 10-15%. Danish methane emissions come

from the agriculture, waste, energy and LULUCF sectors,

with agriculture accounting for by far the largest share of

emissions.

The effects of the Danish political agreement - the Green

Tripartite Agreement - are not included as the effects are

still uncertain. The subsidy for the feed additive Bovaer is

estimated to contribute to a methane reduction of up to

five percentage points in 2030 compared to 2020, while

it is uncertain how much livestock numbers will be

reduced as a result of the agreement, and thus what the

associated methane reductions will be. In addition, the

agreement will increase methane emissions from

peatlands, but the overall climate effect of rewetting will

be positive. Green Transition Denmark does not expect

the effects of the tripartite agreement to sufficiently

reduce methane emissions and remains skeptical about

possible negative side effects of Bovaer.

Methane emissions from the energy sector should be

reduced by phasing out oil and natural gas extraction by

2040. The installation of new oil and gas boilers should

be banned immediately, and existing boilers should be

phased out by 2030 at the latest. In addition, methane

leakage from biogas plants must be monitored and limits

gradually tightened and enforced. The scale of biogas

production must be compatible with a significant

reduction in livestock numbers. Biogas should only be

used where there are no better alternatives, e.g. to

supplement wind and solar power, and to supply

industries with special needs.

Green Transition Denmark recommends that the Danish

government develops a National Methane Action Plan

with a reduction target of 40-45%. This reduction target is

necessary to ensure compliance with the Paris Agreement

and the Global Methane Pledge and has been deemed

cost-effective and feasible by the UN Environment

Programme (UNEP). The focus should be on transforming

agriculture towards more plant-based production to

reduce methane emissions from the sector, which

currently accounts for 80% of Danish methane emissions.

This can only be achieved through a combination of

structural and technological transformation. At the same

time, it must be ensured that technological measures do

not have negative side effects, for example on animal

welfare and biodiversity.

The largest sources of methane emissions in Denmark are

enteric fermentation and manure management in the

agriculture sector, wetlands in the LULUCF sector, solid

waste disposal and methane leakage from biogas plants

in the waste sector, and fugitive emissions from gas in the

energy sector. In order to fulfil Denmark's commitment to

the Global Methane Pledge, Denmark must develop a

National Methane Action Plan showing how Denmark will

reduce its methane emissions by at least 30% in 2030

compared to 2020.

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The Global Methane Pledge (GMP)

In 2021 the EU and the United States together launched

the Global Methane Pledge (GMP) at COP26 in Glasgow to

accelerate action to reduce methane emissions. The main

goal of the Pledge is to reduce global methane emissions

by 30% in 2030 compared to 2020 levels. The reduction

target is global rather than national, meaning that each

participant of the GMP has agreed to

take voluntary

actions to contribute to a collective effort to reduce global

methane emissions by at least

30%

. The pledge

emphasises the importance of rapidly reducing methane

emissions to limit global warming to 1.5°C, in line with the

Paris Agreement.

In March 2024 the GMP counted 158 participants, who

together

account

for

just

over

50%

global

anthropogenic methane emissions.

The

participants

have

committed

taking

comprehensive national actions to achieve the reduction

target by

focusing on standards to achieve all feasible

reductions in the energy and waste sectors and seeking

abatement of agricultural emissions through technology

innovation as well as incentives and partnerships with

farmers

. Denmark, led by the former climate and energy

minister Dan Jørgensen, signed the GMP at its launch in

2021, and is thereby one of the 158 countries that has

committed to collectively reduce the global methane

emissions with 30 % and to take comprehensive domestic

actions to achieve that target. As not all countries in the

world have signed the GMP, calculations by the UK think

tank Green Alliance show that all GMP participants must

reduce their methane emissions by more than 40% to

ensure that the GMP's 30% reduction target is met

Figure 1: Participants of the GMP (in blue)

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Why is Methane Important?

Methane

(CH4)

the

second

most

important

Figure 2: The Danish projected greenhouse gas

emissions in 2030 based on GWP100 and GWP20

anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) in terms of its

warming effect

. According to the sixth assessment report

from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC), about a third of the total net global warming since

pre-industrial

levels

due

higher

methane

GWP100

concentrations

. Methane warms the planet about 30

times more than CO2 calculated over a 100-year period,

but over 80 times more over a 20-year

period

This

means that the global warming potential (GWP) of

methane is about three times higher in the short term (20

years) than in the long term (100 years).

The GWP describes the total warming effect caused by the

instantaneous emission over the entire period (in this

case over 20 or 100 years), i.e. 1 tonne of methane over

100 years has a warming effect equivalent to 28 tonnes

of CO2, while 1 tonne of methane over 20 years has a

warming effect equivalent to 84 tonnes of CO2

. The

difference in the GWP of methane is due to the short

lifetime of methane in the atmosphere of 12-15 years.

The high GWP of methane compared to carbon dioxide in

the short term makes methane reductions an attractive

target for rapidly mitigating global warming in the near

term.

This is reflected in Figure 2, which shows the projections

of Danish greenhouse gases in 2030, calculated in CO2

equivalents based on the GWP of the gases over 20 and

100 years. In the short term, methane emissions account

for a much higher proportion of the global warming effect

of greenhouse gas emissions, which is why methane

reductions are much more important in this perspective

than reductions in carbon dioxide or nitrous oxide. In other

words, the more concerned we are about short-term

global warming, the more emphasis we must put on

cutting methane emissions.

The 100-year perspective also misses the threat of

‘tipping points’ that will result in irreversible changes and

damage the planet’s life-support systems when crossed

With the current warming level five major tipping points

are at risk of being crossed, and if the 1.5°C global

warming is exceeded three more tipping points are at risk

of being crossed (see the box below). The short lifetime of

mio. ton CO2e

GWP20

Co2

CH4

N20

SF6

Global Warming Potential

Currently,

effects

most

climate-models

gases,

use

this

100-year

the

perspective in their judgements of the temperature

greenhouse

includes

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

. The

climate projections that compare the warming effect of

different greenhouse gases look 100 years ahead to

2100. But the situation has changed since the decision

was taken to focus on the 100-year perspective. With

greenhouse gas emissions remaining high, climate

change accelerating globally, and climate targets for

2030 and 2050 approaching, a 10–25-year time horizon

is much more relevant for assessing how to best mitigate

climate change. In this perspective, methane emissions

have a much larger impact on the overall temperature rise

in the near future.

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methane could be the key to avoiding the harmful tipping

points of climate change and buying time for longer-term

CO2 mitigation strategies. Therefore, the rapid effect, and

thus importance, of methane reductions must be

considered in policy decisions and actions.

Reducing methane emissions is not only an effective way

to rapidly reduce global warming, but also to improve

human and ecosystem health. Methane contributes to the

formation of ground-level ozone, and thus to air pollution,

which causes

significant impacts on human health and

vegetation, including agricultural crops, forests and other

plants, as it reduces their growth rates and yields and has

negative

services

Tipping Points

In addition, ozone air pollution causes about one million

premature deaths a year worldwide (about 24.000 in the

), and economic losses due to reduced crop

productivity

. Reducing methane emissions therefore

contributes both to mitigating climate change and to

improving human and ecosystem health through better air

quality.

impacts

biodiversity

and

ecosystem

At today’s 1.2°C global warming five major tipping points are at risk of being crossed. If they are crossed, it will result in

irreversible changes and damage the planet’s life-support systems. These are warm-water coral reefs, the ice sheets of

Greenland and West Antarctica, the North Atlantic’s Subpolar Gyre circulation, and parts of the permafrost (see Figure 3).

If the 1.5°C global warming is exceeded three more potential tipping points become vulnerable: boreal forest, mangroves

and seagrass meadows.

Figure 3: Parts of the Earth system identified as tipping points by Global Tipping Points Report

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Sources of Methane Emissions

Global methane emissions come from both natural and

anthropogenic sources, i.e. emissions resulting from

human activities. Natural emissions account for around

40% of global methane emissions and come mainly from

wetlands

. The anaerobic soil conditions that are a

natural function of wetlands lead to the release of

methane, but at the same time wetlands also serve as

carbon sinks, regulate the water cycle and support 40% of

the world’s biodiversity

. Anthropogenic emissions

account for 60% of the emissions and the main sources

of these emissions are agriculture (animal husbandry and

land use), energy (extraction and transport of fossil fuels)

and waste (landfills and wastewater)

As shown in Figure 4, agriculture is the largest contributor

to methane emissions both globally and in the EU,

accounting for 40% and 54% of methane emissions

respectively. The energy sector is the second largest

emitter of methane globally, but the third largest in the EU.

One reason for this difference is that methane emissions

linked to fossil fuel imports are not included in the

inventory for EU presented in Figure 4. As shown in Figure

5, EU’s methane emissions from the energy sector would

be much higher if imported oil and gas were included.

Within the EU, methane emissions from the waste and

energy sectors have decreased since the 1990’s, while

the emissions from agriculture have remained more

stable.

Figure 4: Global and EU Emission Sources of Anthropogenic Methane

Global Emission Sources of Anthropological Methane

Other 5%

Waste 27%

Waste 20%

Agriculture

40%

EU Emission Sources of Anthropological Methane

Energy 19%*

Energy 35%

Agriculture

54%

*This does not include methane emissions linked to fossil fuel imports.

(The EU relies on imports for 70% of its coal consumption, 97% of its consumption and 90% of its fossil gas consumptions.)

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Figure 5: Development of EU’s methane emissions

300.000

250.000

200.000

kt CO2e

150.000

100.000

50.000

1996

1998

2000

Energy

2002

2004

2006

Agriculture

2008

2010

2012

Waste

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

EU methane emissions from the energy sector when imported oil and gas are included

National Methane Action Plans

As part of the commitment to the Global Methane Pledge

(GMP), countries are expected to submit a Methane

Action Plan outlining existing policies and future activities

to reduce methane by 2030 and beyond. As of October

2023, nearly 60 governments and the European Union

have completed or are in the process of completing their

National Methane Action Plans

. Among the Nordic

countries, Denmark is the only country that has not

submitted a Methane Action Plan

. Among the countries

that have submitted their Methane Action Plan, the

expected methane reductions between 2020 and 2030

vary widely. For example, Iceland expects its methane

emissions to decrease by 1%, Sweden by 17%, the EU by

23%, and Canada by 35%, while projections show that

Denmark’s methane emissions will decrease between 10-

15% in 2030 compared to 2020

In its Methane Action Plan, the EU specifically mentions

One reason for the large variation in the expected

methane reductions across countries is the difference in

the size of the different sectors. The GMP states that the

energy sector has the greatest potential for targeted

reductions

2030

Methane

emissions

from

agriculture are, according to the GMP and its initiators,

the challenges of high costs and biological processes

associated with methane reductions in the agriculture

sector as a reason why the EU will not reduce its methane

emissions by 30% in 2030 compared to 2020. Methane

emissions in the energy and waste sectors will be reduced

by more than 30% over this period, but as most of the EU's

methane emissions come from the agriculture sector,

USA and the EU, more challenging to reduce due to high

costs and the nature of the biological processes involved.

Therefore, reductions will require technological innovation

as well as incentives and partnerships with farmers,

according to the EU

. Most proven technologies and

practices, particularly in the fossil fuel and waste sectors,

can be implemented at negative or low cost, making

methane reductions in these sectors more accessible

But abating methane emissions from agriculture can also

be addressed in a more systemic way by changing what

we produce. Since the vast majority of methane emissions

stem from animal husbandry, it would lead to substantial

reductions if we transformed our production systems

towards producing less animal products and more plant-

based food for human consumption.

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where emissions by the sector and the authorities are

regarded as harder to reduce, the EU will not meet the

30% reduction target

. If the EU makes systemic changes

to the agricultural production, greater reductions could be

achieved. The 30% reduction target could arguably be set

higher considering the effects of an agricultural

production system change.

The reduction target in the Danish Methane Action Plan

should be at least a 30% reduction (in line with the GMP)

by 2030, but preferably of a 40-45% reduction by 2030,

which is considered both cost-effective and feasible in the

Global Methane Assessment

. This target must be the

focal point of a Danish Methane Action Plan that sets out

the path with concrete and new policies that makes it

possible to achieve the reduction target.

How to develop a Danish Methane Action

Plan?

EU's Methane Action Plan, as well as those of the other

Nordic countries, is more or less structured around five

building blocks developed by the Climate and Clean Air

Coalition (CCAC). The five building blocks are listed in the

box below. Denmark can therefore easily use these

building blocks to develop a Danish Methane Action Plan.

In the Danish context, it is specifically urgent to address

methane from the agriculture sector and seek pathways

to reduce the sector’s emissions, e.g. by addressing the

size of livestock production, as the current level is far from

sustainable (this will be elaborated below). In order to lead

to real reductions in methane emissions, the plan must

both set specific sub-targets and outline concrete

measures.

The Five Building Blocks of a National Methane Action Plan Developed by CCAC

Building Block #1 - Emissions:

Quantification of national total methane emissions disaggregated by major

source sectors for recent historic years

Building Block #2 - Analytics:

Data, tools and methods to identify, evaluate and prioritise methane mitigation

measures

through quantitative assessment of the emission reduction and additional benefits achievable from

their implementation

Building Block #3 - Targets:

Communicated target that outlines a commitment that will achieve a reduction

in methane emissions

Building Block #4 - Implementation Pathways:

A concrete set of actions that provide a clear pathway to the

implementation of priority methane mitigation measures, accounting for different types of regulatory,

legislative, infrastructure, financing, incentive, monitoring and enforcement, communication and other actions

necessary for implementation. Also accounting for barriers to implementation and how these can be

overcome, as well as how these actions can be turned into fundable projects.

Building Block #5 - Monitoring, Reporting and Verification:

Systems in place to sustainably track progress on

i) implementation of priority measures, ii) actions needed for their implementation and iii) impacts from their

implementation.

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Sources of Methane Emissions in Denmark

Figure 6: Development in Danish methane emissions compared to Danish CO2 emissions

mio. ton CO2e

1990

1994

1998

CO2

2002

2006

2010

2014

2018

2022

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

2010

2014

2018

2022

CH4 - (CO2 equivalent)

While total Danish CO2 emissions have decreased since

1990, Danish methane emissions have been much more

stable, with a small decrease since 1990 (see Figure 6).

The current Danish methane emissions come mainly from

agriculture, the waste sector, and the energy sector.

Denmark differs from both global and EU distribution of

emissions in how much agriculture contributes to the

national methane emissions. Agriculture accounts for

80% of methane emissions in Denmark (see Figure 7),

while it “only” accounts for 54% of methane emissions in

the EU

. Agriculture is therefore the main source of

methane emissions. Where the Danish methane

emissions from the energy sector and partly the waste

sector have decreased since 1990, methane emissions

from the agriculture sector have remained stable and high

(see Figure 8).

Figure 7: Danish Methane Emissions in 2023

(IPCC Sectors)

Waste 12%

LULUCF 4%

Energy 4%

Figure 8: Development of Danish Methane Emissions

(Sector Level)

mio. ton CO2e

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

Agriculture 80%

TOTAL Energy Sector

TOTAL Agriculture Sector

Enteric fermentation

Manure management

TOTAL LULUCF Sector

TOTAL Waste Sector

Anaerobic digestion at biogas facilities

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Projection of Danish Methane Emissions

Figure 9: Projection of Danish Methane Emissions from 2020-2035

(Mio. Ton Co2e based on GWP100)

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Energy

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Waste

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

Agriculture

LULUCF

The 2024 projections on the development of greenhouse

gas emissions, published annually by the Danish Ministry

of Climate, Energy and Utilities, show that Danish

methane emissions are expected to decrease in the

future

. The decrease in methane emissions is expected

to occur in the energy and agriculture sectors, while

methane emissions are expected to increase in the waste

and in the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry

(LULUCF) sectors. However, the increase in methane

emissions from the LULUCF-sector is due to an increase

in wetlands, as carbon-rich agricultural land is set-aside

and rewetted

. Despite the resulting increase in methane

emissions, rewetting of carbon-rich agricultural land has a

significant net positive effect on the climate of 10-40

tonnes of CO2 per hectare, as wetlands also serve as

carbon sinks

. Rewetting also entails positive effect on

the aquatic environment, as rewetting reduces nitrogen

leaching

Overall, Danish methane emissions are projected to

decrease by 10-15% in 2030 compared to 2020. Whether

the reduction will be 15% or 10% depends on whether a

regulation on methane leakage from biogas production is

included, as it is expected to decrease methane

emissions from biogas production. There is currently no

ex-post analysis of the effect of the regulation, which is

why it is not directly included in the projections of total

methane emissions. If the regulatory potential regarding

methane leakage is fully realized, the waste sector will

decrease its methane emissions by 16% in 2030

compared to 2020. Including this potential in the

projection thus changes the outcome significantly.

The effects of the new Danish political agreement - the

Green Tripartite Agreement - are not included in the

projections of methane emissions. Three important

effects of the Green Tripartite Agreement are worth

highlighting in relation to methane. First, the agreement

will lead to increased rewetting of carbon-rich peatlands,

which will lead to increased methane emissions. However,

the overall climate effect of rewetting will be positive.

Secondly, a subsidy for the feed additive Bovaer will be

introduced from 2025, resulting in an estimated methane

reduction from

feed

additives of

0.4

million

tonnes annually between 2025 and 2030

. Thereafter,

the marginal tax rate will exceed the cost of the feed

additive, which is why the effect of Bovaer is not estimated

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from 2030 onwards. When the estimated effect of Bovaer

is included in the total methane reduction calculations,

the use of feed additives could result in a reduction of up

to 5 percentage points. Thirdly, the agreement is expected

to lead to a reduction in livestock numbers (which will

have the largest impact on methane reductions in the

agricultural sector). How much livestock numbers will be

reduced and what the associated effect will be is highly

uncertain. In conclusion, Green Transition Denmark does

not expect the effects of the Tripartite agreement to

reduce methane emissions sufficiently and remain

skeptical of potential negative side-effects of Bovaer.

‘The Climate Status and Projection’ accounts for methane

emissions in CO2e based on the global warming potential

over 100 years (GWP100). If Danish methane emissions

were instead calculated in terms of their 20-year global

warming potential (GWP20), the climate impact would be

three times higher, and so would expected-reductions. A

30% reduction of methane emissions from 2020 to 2030

(in line with the GMP) measured based on GWP20, would

thereby result in a reduction of 8 million tons CO2e

. A

40-45% reduction, which is needed to honor the Paris

Agreement, would result in reductions of 10.7-12 million

tons CO2e.

Table 1: Projection of the Change in Danish Methane Emissions from 2020-2030

(Mio. Ton Co2e based on GWP100)

Sectors

2020

2030

% reduction from 2020 to 2030

Energy

Agriculture

LULUCF

Waste

0.37

7.28

0.3

0.96

0.25

5.96

0.51

1.34

-32 %

-18 %

70 %

40 %

***

Total

Total with partial correction regarding

methane leakage from biogas

production

8.91

8.06

-10 %

8.91

7.53

-15 %

* If the estimated effect of the feed additive Bovaer is included, the number for agriculture in 2030 is 5.56 and methane emissions would be

reduced by up to 5 percentage points. This results in a total reduction of 15-20%.

** If the correction regarding methane leakage from biogas production is included, the number will be 0,81

*** If the correction regarding methane leakage from biogas production is included, methane emissions from the waste sector decrease by 16%

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Agriculture Sector

The agriculture sector is the main contributor to Danish

methane emissions, with livestock accounting for almost

all methane emissions. Methane emissions from livestock

stem from enteric fermentation, which is the digestive

process in the rumen of ruminant animals, and manure

management, the methods used to handle animal

manure. The development in the agriculture sector has

been fairly stable since 1990, but the Danish climate

projections predict that methane emissions from

agriculture will decrease by 18% in 2030 compared to

2020. The projected decrease in methane emissions is

mainly due to an expected decrease in the number of

dairy cows and pigs, increased biogasification of cattle

and pig manure, the implementation of requirements for

frequent sluicing in pigsties from 2023, and the extraction

and extensification of agricultural land to reduce fertiliser

use

. It is important to mention that there is a great

uncertainty in the projections and measurements of

methane emissions in the agriculture sector because it is

difficult to quantify the complex biological processes.

As in other EU Member States, the Danish agricultural

sector is heavily dependent on the support it receives

from the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy

(CAP). However, a study of the CAP shows that 82% of the

EU’s agricultural subsidies are allocated to animal-based

food (38% directly and 44% for animal feed)

. This is

because the subsidy system is based on support per

hectare, which means that farms that use more land

receive more money. One of the main reasons why animal

production receives the largest share of agricultural

subsidies is that it takes up a lot of land to grow feed for

animals. The CAP architecture favors animal production

and makes it difficult to transform food production into

more sustainable and plant-based production. However,

an agriculture sector with less livestock and more plant-

based production would massively reduce methane

emissions from the sector.

Figure 10: Development of Danish Methane Emissions in the Agriculture Sector

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

mio. ton CO2e

TOTAL Agriculture Sector

Enteric fermentation

Manure management

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Enteric Fermentation

In 2023, enteric fermentation accounted for 62% of

methane emissions from livestock

. The metabolism of

feed in the rumen of ruminants leads to the formation of

methane. Methane emissions from enteric fermentation

ruminants

with

multi-chambered

stomach,

particularly dairy cows, are significantly higher than

emissions from production animals with a single stomach,

such as pigs

. This is clearly illustrated

in Figure 11,

which shows that cattle are responsible for the vast

majority of methane emissions from enteric fermentation.

Methane emissions from enteric fermentation can be

influenced by feeding practices and breeding and, most

importantly, by the number of ruminants. The Danish

government is adopting a requirement to reduce

emissions from livestock digestion that includes the use

of fodder with a high content of fat from 2025, which can

reduce

methane

emissions

from

dairy

cows.

Nevertheless, methane emissions per dairy cow are

expected to increase due to genetic improvement,

increased feed intake and optimised feed composition in

relation to production

. The expected decrease in

methane emissions from enteric fermentation is therefore

primarily driven by an expected decrease in the number

of dairy cows in Denmark.

Figure 11: Development of Methane Emissions from Enteric Fermentation

mio. ton CO2e

1990

1994

TOTAL

1998

Cattle

2002

2006

Sheep

2010

Swine

2014

Other livestock

2018

2022

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Feed additives and optimization are not enough

In the Danish debate on how to manage methane

emissions from the enteric fermentation of cows, the feed

additive ‘Bovaer’ is highlighted. This is because it is

estimated to reduce methane emissions from dairy cows

by around 30%. The effect of Bovaer is not included in the

ministry’s Climate Status and Projections 2024, but it is

expected to be included in the Climate Status and

Projections in 2025 if the climate effect is consolidated

It is important that the trade-offs of technologies are well

thought through before they are implemented on a large

scale.

In the case of Bovaer, the effect of the feed additive on

animal welfare has not been studied in-depth and studies

show that cows with high doses of Bovaer in their feed eat

less, which may be because the feed additive causes

discomfort to the cow

. At the same time, the use of

Bovaer risks keeping cows in barns with no or limited

grazing time that otherwise could have increased

biodiversity and nutrient cycling. Meanwhile, studies from

the Netherlands

and Sweden

show

that

methane

emissions from cattle can be reduced by approximately

30% if the animals only graze fresh grass and are not kept

and fed in barns. A Danish research project called

MetGraz is also investigating whether grazing cows emit

less methane than cows in barns, and preliminary results

show that this is the case

The trade-offs and side-effects of feed additives, as well

as other measures to optimize feed, need to be

considered. For example, palm oil is being used to

increase the fat content in cow feed, but this causes

deforestation in other parts of the world. As a result,

national emissions might drop, while they will rise

elsewhere, limiting net effect significantly – or removing it

entirely

. Therefore, feed optimization must consider the

global net effect as well as animal welfare concerns. An

alternative here could be Danish grown rapeseed, which

only has a third of the climate impact of imported palm oil.

Overall, to properly address methane emissions from

enteric

fermentation,

feed

additives

and

feed

optimization are important tools, but they are not enough.

A structural transformation of agriculture away from

industrial animal production towards plant-based food

production is necessary to limit the contribution to global

warming and ensure food production within planetary

boundaries. The total number of cows needs to be

reduced, as this will have a much larger impact on the

total methane emissions, and it will free up land for other

uses that previously was used for fodder.

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Manure Management

Methane

emissions

from

manure

management

Methane emissions from manure management can be

influenced by storage time, temperature, and manure

treatment technologies (e.g. biogas plants, more frequent

sluicing

or slurry cooling)

. The projected reduction in

methane emissions from manure management is

expected to be driven by the requirement of

frequent

sluicing in pigsties,

by extensification of agricultural land,

which reduces the use of manure, and by increased

biogasification

of cattle and pig manure. These

technologies are important in reducing methane

emissions from the agricultural sector, but it is

questionable whether technology alone can ensure that

we meet our climate targets. The unsustainable scale of

livestock production needs to be addressed if the targets

are to be met.

accounted for 38% of methane emissions from

agriculture in 2023

. Methane and nitrous oxides are

produced when manure is stored in barns and storage

facilities, but emissions vary depending on the amount

and type of manure and can be influenced by the way

manure is managed and stored in livestock buildings and

slurry tanks

. Especially cooling, acidification, and

biogasification reduces methane emissions.

Figure 12 illustrates

that manure management in pig

production accounts for most methane emissions from

manure management, followed by cattle production

While methane emissions from manure management in

pig production have decreased since they peaked in

2004, manure management in cattle production have

increased slightly since 1990, but remained more or less

stable since 2012, which is why the two types of

productions soon emit the same amount of methane. In

2030, methane emissions from manure management of

pig and cattle production are expected to be the same

Figure 12: Development of Methane Emissions from Manure Management

mio. ton CO2e

1990

1994

TOTAL

1998

Cattle

2002

2006

Sheep

2010

Swine

2014

2018

2022

Other livestock

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Waste Sector

Figure 13: Development of Danish Methane Emissions in the Waste Sector

2,0

1,8

1,6

1,4

mio. ton CO2e

1,2

1,0

0,8

0,6

0,4

0,2

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

Solid waste disposal

Anaerobic digestion at biogas facilities

Other waste

Waste composting

Wastewater Treatment and Discharge

TOTAL WASTE

In the waste sector, the two main sources of methane

emissions are solid waste disposal and anaerobic

digestion at biogas facilities. In 2023, solid waste disposal

accounted for 39% of methane emissions from the waste

sector, while anaerobic digestion at biogas facilities

accounted for

46%

The remaining 15% came from

composting (7%), anaerobic digestion at wastewater

facilities (3%), septic tanks (3%), sewage systems (1%),

and other waste (1%). Methane emissions from the waste

sector are expected to increase in the future, mainly due

to an increase in biogas production, which leads to an

increase in total methane emissions from anaerobic

digestion

However, if the expected effect of the earlier-

mentioned regulation (see page 12) on methane leakage

from biogas facilities, which was adopted in 2022, is

included, the overall methane emissions from the waste

sector will be reduced.

Anaerobic Digestion at Biogas Plants

Biogas plants use the process of anaerobic digestion,

where organic material (such as livestock manure) is

broken down by bacteria in an oxygen-free environment,

to produce biogas, which is a mix of mainly methane (CH4)

and carbon dioxide (CO2). The production of biogas is a

source of methane emissions due to leaks in the

processing plant and from the upgrading process, which

separates CH4 from CO2. In the future, biogas production

is expected to increase, leading to potentially higher

emissions from methane leakage. At the same time, the

above-mentioned new regulation on methane leakage

from biogas facilities, which requires biogas facilities to

minimise their methane leakage to less than 1%, which is

expected to reduce emissions. If this succeeds, emissions

from methane leakage from biogas facilities will decrease

despite increased biogas production

. However, the

methane leakages are not expected to be quantified until

2025, and there is still much uncertainty about the effects

of the regulation.

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Green Transition Denmark recommends close monitoring

of the new methane leakage regulation since additional

measures must be taken if a leakage of less than 1%

seems unfeasible with the current regulatory setup. Also,

quantifying methane leakage better will provide more

accurate greenhouse gas accounting.

In addition, Green Transition Denmark recommends that

the government lays out a strategy for expanding biogas

production targeted towards plant-based biomass, e.g.

side streams from industry, farms and household waste,

rather than manure. Since we need to reduce livestock

numbers, we must not create a lock-in to a certain

livestock production size by investing intensely in manure-

based biogas plants. The production of biogas in Denmark

is projected to increase from 22 PJ in 2022 to about 50

PJ in 2035

. Calculations from EA Energy made on

request of Greenpeace, show that it is possible to produce

50 PJ biogas in Denmark while simultaneously reducing

the number of livestock by 50%

. In addition, a report

from Green Transition Denmark shows that it is possible

to phase out the use of fossil energy by 2040 with the use

of only 42,3 PJ of biogas

Solid Waste Disposal

When organic waste deposited in e.g. landfills is broken

down by bacteria in an oxygen-free environment (the

process of anaerobic digestion mentioned above),

methane is produced. Methane emissions from landfills

have decreased significantly since 1990 because the

amount of organic waste going to landfills has decreased

over time, while organic waste in landfills naturally

degasses over time. One reason for the reduction in the

amount of organic waste going to landfill is the partial ban

on landfilling of organic waste introduced in 1997, which

means that most organic waste is now treated by

composting, incineration or biogasification

. However,

the decrease in emissions has stagnated in recent years

and is expected to remain at about the same level. One of

the reasons for this development is that the amount of

waste is expected to increase and that the disposed waste

degasses over time, according to the Climate Projection

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Energy Sector

Figure 14: Development of the Danish Methane Emissions in the Energy Sector

1,60

1,40

1,20

mio. ton CO2e

1,00

0,80

0,60

0,40

0,20

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

Energy Industries

Transport

Fugitive emissions from oil, gas and flaring

Manufacturing Industries and Construction

Other Sectors

TOTAL ENERGY

In the energy sector, the three main sources of methane

emissions are currently ‘fugitive emissions from fuels’,

‘energy industries’ and ‘other sectors’. In 2023, fugitive

emissions from extraction and distribution of fuels

accounted for 30%, energy industries for 30%, and other

sectors for 33%

. Methane emissions from the energy

sector are projected to decrease overall towards 2030,

due to reductions in methane emissions from public

electricity and heat supply, cars and residential buildings.

However, fugitive emissions from gas are projected to

increase towards 2030, accounting for 48% of methane

emissions from the energy sector in 2030

Energy Industries and Other Sectors

than the Danish consumption of piped gas, even though

fossil natural gas will still flow through the Danish gas

system, as it is part of the European gas network

Denmark should therefore replace the use of gas where

alternatives exist, e.g. electrification, even if the gas in the

pipelines is green gas in terms of inventory. A possible

surplus of Danish biogas could then be exported via the

European gas network to other countries where biogas will

replace the use of fossil natural gas - e.g. in Germany.

Other sectors that are responsible for methane emissions

within the energy sector are ‘residentials’ and ‘agriculture,

forestry and aquaculture’. While methane emissions from

‘agriculture, forestry and aquaculture’ are expected to

remain the same towards 2030, the emissions from

‘residentials’ are expected to decrease. Gas boilers in

households are an emitter of methane within this

category. The above-mentioned Climate Agreement from

2022 also sets the target that no residential buildings

should be heated with gas by 2035

. In 2023, 380.000

households were estimated to use a gas boiler as primary

heating system, and this number is estimated to decrease

to 130.000 in 2030 and to 110.000 in 2035

. This

Methane emissions from energy industries, which in the

Danish case is ‘public electricity and heat production’, are

expected to decrease towards 2030. One of the targets of

the Climate Agreement on green power and heat from

2022 is that all gas in Denmark should be green by 2030,

which means that district heating companies are required

to plan for the phasing out of fossil natural gas in the heat

production

However, this green gas target is defined as

being achieved when the production of biogas is higher

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means that the target of no gas heated residential

buildings in 2035 will not be achieved.

Gas in the heating sector should be phased out

used where there are no good alternatives, i.e. in certain

industries where high temperatures are required and for

peak loads in productions. This also means that biogas

should not be used in the heating sector, where better

alternatives are available.

In order to phase out gas heating in Danish households,

we also need a ban on the installation of new gas boilers

for heating. If this should be seen as violating EU single

market regulation, Denmark could instead put a high tax

on new gas boilers. When gas boilers are taken out, while

the owners are waiting for district heating pipes in their

local area, the utility company must provide them with an

intermediate solution, a second-hand boiler or an

intermediate heat pump solution.

Fugitive Emissions

In 2022, after the war broke out in Ukraine, the

government tried to step up its efforts to meet the target

of no gas heated residential buildings. The government

asked municipalities to inform owners of gas boilers

within a year whether they would be offered district

heating before 2028, and at the same time funding

schemes for heat pumps in residential buildings were set

up to encourage those who would not be offered district

heating to invest in heat pumps instead. But this attempt

was not successful, as the municipalities were not able to

complete the planning of the district heating pipelines

within the timeframe.

Despite the unsuccessful attempt, methane emissions

are projected to decrease due to an expected decrease in

consumption of piped gas, biogas and fossil natural gas,

as gas boilers are replaced by heat pumps or district

heating, and due to an expected increase in the share of

biogas in piped gas

. The same development is

estimated to apply for the gas used for space heating in

businesses.

Green Transition Denmark recommends that the use of

gas in the heating sector should be phased out by 2030

at the latest. This can be done by directing more planning

resources to municipalities. This will allow them to map

out whether owners of gas boilers will have access to

district heating or whether they will need to invest in heat

pumps.

In order to achieve the aforementioned goal of 100%

green gas in the Danish gas pipeline system, we must not

only expand biogas production, but also reduce gas

consumption overall. Biogas production must not be

expanded more than it is still possible to significantly

reduce the number of livestock animals to a sustainable

level, and we must continue to phase out the use of

energy crops in biogas plants

. Biogas should only be

Fugitive emissions from fuels and flaring are methane

leaks that occur during the extraction, production,

processing, storage, transmission and distribution of oil

and gas products

. In Denmark, the greatest contributors

of fugitive methane emissions are the platforms in the

North Sea that extracts oil and gas, as well as refineries

Fugitive emissions from oil and from flaring (controlled

burning of excess methane from oil and gas production

and refining) is projected to remain the same towards

2030, while fugitive emissions from gas are projected to

increase

Green Transition Denmark recommends that instead of

putting effort and resources into fixing pipes, which has a

smaller impact on methane emissions from oil, fossil

natural gas and energy production in general, effort and

resources should be put into the goal of phasing out the

production of oil and fossil natural gas. We can fix pipes

as an urgent measure to tackle fugitive methane

emissions, but this needs to be complemented by an end

date for the use of oil and gas. Green Transition Denmark

has presented a transformation scenario which shows

that it is possible to phase-out fossil energy in all parts of

society by 2040

. The scenario shows that it is possible

and economically responsible.

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Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)

In the Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF)

sector ‘grassland’ and ‘wetlands’ currently accounts for

most methane emissions. In 2023, grasslands and

wetlands each accounted for 35% of the sector’s

methane emissions, while forest land and cropland

accounted for 16% and 13% respectively

While

methane emissions from grassland, forest land, and

cropland decrease towards 2030, emissions from

wetlands increase. This means that wetlands are

projected to account for 73% of LULUCF’s methane

emissions in 2030. The implementation of policies that

facilitate the set-aside and rewetting of carbon-rich

agricultural land for the purpose of wetland restoration is

expected to result in a significant increase in the number

of wetlands

As mentioned earlier, methane emissions from wetlands

are defined as a natural source of emissions, and

wetlands also make a positive contribution by acting as

carbon sinks, regulating the water cycle and supporting

biodiversity. Furthermore, when peatlands are drained for

agriculture purposes, they emit large amounts of CO2.

Rewetting will therefore lead to a net reduction in

greenhouse gas emissions of 10-40 tons of CO2e per

hectare rewetted per year

. Therefore, increasing

methane emissions from this land use is not alarming.

Figure 15: Development of the Danish Methane Emissions in the LULUCF sector

0,35

0,30

0,25

mio. ton CO2e

0,20

0,15

0,10

0,05

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

Grassland

2008

2011

Wetlands

2014

2017

2020

2023

Forest land

Cropland

TOTAL LULUCF

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Conclusions

This paper has examined Danish methane emissions,

what the sources of methane emissions are, in which

sectors they are located, and how they are projected to

develop towards 2030. Table 2 shows which sources

account for the majority of methane emissions in

Denmark in 2020 and their projections to 2030. As shown

in this table, it is enteric fermentation and manure

management in the agriculture sector that account for the

vast majority of Danish methane emissions, should

therefore also be further addressed.

Therefore, the main focus must be on how to reduce

emissions from this sector. It is also important to address

methane emissions from the other sectors, where

reduction measures are available at a low or negative

cost. Biogas leakage in the waste sector and phasing out

oil and gas in the energy sector, including accelerating

phasing out gas boilers in Danish households

Table 2: The Largest Sources of Methane Emissions in Denmark*

(% of total methane emissions)

% in 2030 with methane

% in 2020

% in 2030

leakage from biogas

production correction

Energy Sector

Fugitive emissions from gas

Enteric fermentation

Agriculture Sector

Manure management

46 %

48 %

51 %

35 %

26 %

28 %

LULUCF Sector

Wetlands

Solid waste disposal

Waste Sector

Anaerobic digestion at biogas

facilities

**Methane leakage from biogas production is subtracted here.

3 %

*Methane emissions that account for under 2% is removed from this table

MOF, Alm.del - 2024-25 - Bilag 191: Henvendelse af 13/12-24 fra Rådet for Grøn Omstilling om danske metan-udledninger og det globale metanløfte

GREEN TRANSITION DENMARK

Green Transition Denmark's 9 Recommendations Elaborated

1. Develop a National Methane Action Plan with

a Reduction Target of 40-45%

3. Transition from Animal Production to Plant-

based Food Production

Denmark must develop a National Methane

Action Plan as soon as possible, with an

ambitious target of 40-45% by 2030 compared

to 2020. This reduction target is considered cost-

effective and feasible in the Global Methane

Assessment. And it is necessary because global

warming is approaching 1.5°C and methane

emissions, with their high short-term global

warming potential (GWP), will have a major

impact on whether we can keep the temperature

below 1.5°C.

2. Incorporate

the

Short-term

Perspective

The size of the Danish livestock production needs

to be reduced significantly as it accounts for the

vast majority of Danish methane emissions.

Transitioning to plant-based food production

systems will enable Denmark to become a net

producer of proteins

. Reducing livestock

production not only benefits the climate by

reducing methane emissions, but it also has a

number of other positive side-effects. To name

just a few, a reduction in livestock will lead to a

reduction

soybean

imports,

thereby

contributing positively to land use change

elsewhere in the world. The reduction will also

contribute positively to Danish land use, as

almost 80% of agricultural land is used to grow

animal feed

4. Consider

the

Trade-offs

the

Use

(GWP20) in the Decision-making

The short-term perspective (GWP20) must be

included in the plan of reaching the Danish

climate goal, as the deadline is within the next

20-25 years. Here reductions of methane

emissions play a particular important role. A 30%

reduction of methane emissions in 2030

compared to 2020 measured based on GWP100

will result in a reduction of 2.7 million tons of

CO2e, but if the reduction is measured based on

GWP20 the same 30% reduction will result in a

reduction of 8 million tons of CO2e. The use of

GWP20 takes into account the disproportionate

impact of methane on short-term temperature

and gives policymakers an incentive to focus on

reducing

methane

emissions

deliver

immediate climate benefits, slowing the rate of

global warming and buying time for longer-term

CO2 mitigation strategies.

Technologies Before They are Implemented

Some technologies can help reduce methane

emissions, but it is important to thoroughly

consider potential negative trade-offs. These

should be properly assessed before such

technologies are subsidized or implemented

through regulation. An example of this is the feed

additive Bovaer or the use of palm oil in feed, as

described above. The money invested in

technologies that lock-in current industrial

livestock production and leads to deforestation

and animal welfare issues, can be used better.

For example on documenting the potential effect

of grazing, which carries positive side-effects.

MOF, Alm.del - 2024-25 - Bilag 191: Henvendelse af 13/12-24 fra Rådet for Grøn Omstilling om danske metan-udledninger og det globale metanløfte

GREEN TRANSITION DENMARK

5. Phase Out the Use and Production of Oil and

Gas

8. Biogas Should Only be Used Where There are

No Better Alternatives

Production of oil and fossil natural gas must be

phased out as soon as possible. We might repair

pipes as an urgent way of dealing with fugitive

methane emissions from production, but this

needs to be complemented by an end date for

the use of oil and gas. It is possible to achieve a

phase-out in 2040, which will have a significant

impact on reducing methane emissions from the

energy sector.

6. Advance the Target of a Phase-out of the Use of

Gas Boilers in Danish Households

The use of biogas must be prioritized for areas

where there are no alternatives, e.g. certain

industries that require high temperatures and for

peak load in the production. We need to use

biogas wisely so that it effectively replaces the

use of fossil natural gas. This means that it

should not be used in the heating sector where

alternatives are available.

9. Methane Leakage from Biogas Plants Must be

Addressed

Methane leakage from biogas plants must be

addressed to minimize emissions. The reduction

effect of the new methane regulation needs to be

closely monitored, as additional measures will

need to be taken if leakage of less than 1%

seems unachievable under the current regulatory

regime. In addition, the quantification of

methane leakage needs to be improved to

enable

accurate

greenhouse

gas

accounting.

Denmark must phase out gas (fossil natural gas

and biogas) for household heating by 2030.

Municipalities need more planning resources to

meet the 'Climate Agreement on Green Power

and Heat,' which aims to implement district

heating by 2028, providing a better alternative to

gas boilers in all households. To support this, a

ban on the purchase of gas boilers should be

introduced in 2025, as they typically last about

20 years. Given Denmark's goal of climate

neutrality by 2045, citizens should avoid

investing in gas boilers from 2025 to facilitate

the transition away from gas heating.

7. Biogas

Production

and

Use

must

Methane Matters:

https://methanematters.eu/

Energy within Planetary Boundaries:

https://rgo.dk/en/energi-inden-for-planetaere-

graenser/

From Feed to Food II:

https://rgo.dk/en/publication/from-feed-to-feed-in-

report/

Sustainable

Biogas is an important tool for addressing

climate, water and waste problems together, but

the production must be sustainable. This means

that the expansion of biogas production must be

in accordance with the need to reduce livestock

numbers significantly.

This report has been made with funding from the

Methane Matters Coalition. Green Transition

Denmark is a partner organisation of the Coalition.

MOF, Alm.del - 2024-25 - Bilag 191: Henvendelse af 13/12-24 fra Rådet for Grøn Omstilling om danske metan-udledninger og det globale metanløfte

References

https://rgo.dk/wp-content/uploads/Ren-energi-indenfor-planetaere-graenser-i-2040.pdf

https://www.globalmethanepledge.org

https://www.globalmethanepledge.org/resources/global-methane-pledge

GMP participants + China who has stated that it will reduce its methane emissions as well, despite not being

a participant of the GMP.

https://green-alliance.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Why-the-UK-should-

do-more-to-cut-methane-emissions.pdf

https://www.globalmethanepledge.org/#pledges

https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/energy/facts-about-methane

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf

https://methanematters.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Make-Methane-Matter_Final.pdf

https://www.ft.dk/samling/20191/almdel/kef/spm/492/svar/1701666/2263864.pdf

Calculated based on data from

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638557759386656307/KF24_CRFtabels.xlsx

https://ing.dk/artikel/kronik-vi-undervurderer-temperatur-og-klimaeffekter-af-metanudledninger

https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/methane-emissions-in-the-eu

https://methanematters.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Make-Methane-Matter_Final.pdf

https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/energy/facts-about-methane

https://global-tipping-points.org/download/4607/

https://www.iea.org/reports/methane-tracker-2021/methane-and-climate-change

https://www.wetlands.org/wetlands/

https://methanematters.eu

Charts made based on

https://methanematters.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Make-Methane-

Matter_Final.pdf

Data A:

https://www.ccacoalition.org/sites/default/files/resources/2021_Global-

Methane_Assessment_full_0.pdf

Data B:

https://www.ccacoalition.org/sites/default/files/resources//European%20Union%20Methane%20Action%2

0Plan.pdf

Made based on

https://methanematters.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Make-Methane-Matter_Final.pdf

With data from

https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/maps-and-charts/greenhouse-gases-viewer-data-

viewers

https://www.globalmethanepledge.org/annual-report/methane-plans-and-policies

https://www.ccacoalition.org/resources/national-methane-action-plans#

https://www.ccacoalition.org/resources/national-methane-action-plans

Global Methane Pledge, 2021

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52020DC0663

https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/energy/facts-about-methane

https://www.ccacoalition.org/sites/default/files/resources//European%20Union%20Methane%20Action%2

0Plan.pdf

https://www.ccacoalition.org/sites/default/files/resources//2021_Global-Methane_Assessment_full_0.pdf

https://www.ccacoalition.org/sites/default/files/resources/M-

RAP%20Roadmap%20Template%20Guidance%20-%20Working%20Final.pdf

Data from:

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638557759386656307/KF24_CRFtabels.xlsx

https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/data-viewers/greenhouse-gases-viewer

Data from (% is calculated by RGO):

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638557759386656307/KF24_CRFtabels.xlsx

Data from:

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638557759386656307/KF24_CRFtabels.xlsx

Data from:

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638557759386656307/KF24_CRFtabels.xlsx

https://www.kefm.dk/klima/klimastatus-og-fremskrivning/klimastatus-og-fremskrivning-2024

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638557749505615087/KF24%20Kapitel%2018%20Landbrugsarealer%20og

%20øvrige%20arealer.pdf

https://klimaraadet.dk/sites/default/files/imorted-file/bilagsrapport_om_lavbundsjorder_0.pdf

10.

11.

12.

13.

14.

15.

16.

17.

18.

19.

20.

21.

22.

23.

24.

25.

26.

27.

28.

29.

30.

31.

32.

33.

34.

35.

36.

37.

38.

MOF, Alm.del - 2024-25 - Bilag 191: Henvendelse af 13/12-24 fra Rådet for Grøn Omstilling om danske metan-udledninger og det globale metanløfte

GREEN TRANSITION DENMARK

39.

https://klimaraadet.dk/sites/default/files/imorted-file/kulstofrige_lavbundsjorder_-

_analyse_af_klimaraadet_0.pdf

40.

https://oem.dk/media/awkfrkdz/1-klimaloesning-for-landbruget-mv_-a.pdf

41. Calculated based on GWP from:

https://www.ft.dk/samling/20191/almdel/kef/spm/492/svar/1701666/2263864.pdf

And data from:

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638557759386656307/KF24_CRFtabels.xlsx

See Figure 2 for the projected greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 based on GWP100 and GWP20

42. Data from (% reduction is calculated by RGO):

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638557759386656307/KF24_CRFtabels.xlsx

43.

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638500583839358855/KF24%20Kapitel%2017%20Landbrugsprocesser.pdf

44.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-024-00949-4

45. Data from:

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638557759386656307/KF24_CRFtabels.xlsx

46. Calculated by RGO based on data from:

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638557759386656307/KF24_CRFtabels.xlsx

47.

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638500583839358855/KF24%20Kapitel%2017%20Landbrugsprocesser.pdf

48.

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638500583839358855/KF24%20Kapitel%2017%20Landbrugsprocesser.pdf

49. Data from:

https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/maps-and-charts/greenhouse-gases-viewer-data-viewers

50.

https://www.ft.dk/samling/20231/almdel/mof/spm/506/svar/2034163/2842556/index.htm

51.

https://pure.au.dk/ws/portalfiles/portal/306097925/Rapport_FINAL_300123.pdf

52.

https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/enterische-methaanemissie-van-melkvee-in-relatie-tot-vers-graskwa

53.

https://jordbruksverket.se/jordbruket-miljon-och-klimatet/forskning-och-fakta-om-ekologisk-

produktion/arkiv/2023-06-13-betande-kor-kan-ge-mindre-metan-an-kor-pa-stall

54.

https://icoel.dk/klima/dansk-forskning-undersoeger-udledning-af-metan-fra-koeer-paa-graes/

55.

https://dcapub.au.dk/djfpublikation/djfpdf/DCArapport227.pdf

56. Calculated by RGO based on data from:

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638557759386656307/KF24_CRFtabels.xlsx

57.

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638500583839358855/KF24%20Kapitel%2017%20Landbrugsprocesser.pdf

58.

https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/maps-and-charts/greenhouse-gases-viewer-data-viewers

59.

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638500583839358855/KF24%20Kapitel%2017%20Landbrugsprocesser.pdf

60.

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638500583839358855/KF24%20Kapitel%2017%20Landbrugsprocesser.pdf

61. Biogas treatment of cattle and pig manure leads to lower methane emissions from the manure storage due

to an often shorter storage time before collection, and due to the emissions from the returned biogasified

manure are very low compared to non-biogasified manure

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638500583839358855/KF24%20Kapitel%2017%20Landbrugsprocesser.pdf

62. Data from:

https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/maps-and-charts/greenhouse-gases-viewer-data-viewers

63. However, projections to 2030 show a decrease in methane emissions from anaerobic digestion in biogas

plants due to the above-mentioned regulation. The figure’s data come from:

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638557759386656307/KF24_CRFtabels.xlsx

64. Calculated by RGO based on data from:

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638557759386656307/KF24_CRFtabels.xlsx

65.

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638557759386656307/KF24_CRFtabels.xlsx

66.

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638500583600673372/KF24%20Kapitel%2024%20Produktion%20af%20oli

e,%20gas%20og%20VE-brændstoffer.pdf

67.

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638500583600673372/KF24%20Kapitel%2024%20Produktion%20af%20oli

e,%20gas%20og%20VE-brændstoffer.pdf

68.

https://www.greenpeace.org/static/planet4-denmark-stateless/2023/01/e03557a9-

20221000_analyse_scenarier-for-biogas-mod-2030_ea-energianalyse.pdf

69.

https://rgo.dk/wp-content/uploads/Ren-energi-indenfor-planetaere-graenser-i-2040.pdf

70.

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638501715568637065/KF24%20Kapitel%2026%20Øvrigt%20affald%20og%

20spildevand.pdf

71.

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638501715568637065/KF24%20Kapitel%2026%20Øvrigt%20affald%20og%

20spildevand.pdf

72. Data from:

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638557759386656307/KF24_CRFtabels.xlsx

73. Calculated by RGO based on data from:

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638557759386656307/KF24_CRFtabels.xlsx

MOF, Alm.del - 2024-25 - Bilag 191: Henvendelse af 13/12-24 fra Rådet for Grøn Omstilling om danske metan-udledninger og det globale metanløfte

GREEN TRANSITION DENMARK

74. Calculated by RGO based on data from:

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638557759386656307/KF24_CRFtabels.xlsx

75.

https://www.kefm.dk/aktuelt/nyheder/2022/jun/aftale-om-et-mere-groent-og-sikkert-danmark-

76.

https://www.ft.dk/samling/20231/almdel/kef/spm/414/svar/2055453/2879783.pdf

77.

https://www.regeringen.dk/nyheder/2022/aftale-om-et-mere-groent-og-sikkert-danmark/

78.

https://www.kefm.dk/klima/klimastatus-og-fremskrivning/klimastatus-og-fremskrivning-2024

79.

https://www.kefm.dk/klima/klimastatus-og-fremskrivning/klimastatus-og-fremskrivning-2024

80. From July 2024 maximum 4 % (by weight) of the feedstock to biogas plants can be energy crops (like maize,

beet, grain, and grass) and from 2025 it will no longer be permitted to use maize in biogas production -

https://ens.dk/ansvarsomraader/bioenergi/energiafgroeder-til-biogas

81.

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638500583600673372/KF24%20Kapitel%2024%20Produktion%20af%20oli

e,%20gas%20og%20VE-brændstoffer.pdf

82.

https://dce.au.dk/udgivelser/vr/nr-451-500/nr-463-den-danske-emissionsopgoerelse-for-flygtige-

emissioner-fra-braendstoffer

83.

https://www.kefm.dk/klima/klimastatus-og-fremskrivning/klimastatus-og-fremskrivning-2024

84.

https://rgo.dk/en/energi-inden-for-planetaere-graenser/

85. Calculated by RGO based on data from:

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638557759386656307/KF24_CRFtabels.xlsx

86.

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638557749505615087/KF24%20Kapitel%2018%20Landbrugsarealer%20og

%20øvrige%20arealer.pdf

87.

https://klimaraadet.dk/sites/default/files/imorted-file/kulstofrige_lavbundsjorder_-

_analyse_af_klimaraadet_0.pdf

88. Data from:

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638557759386656307/KF24_CRFtabels.xlsx

89. Calculated by RGO based on data from:

https://www.kefm.dk/Media/638557759386656307/KF24_CRFtabels.xlsx

90. At present, Denmark produces protein for about 16 mio. people annually, but imports protein equivalent to

the protein requirements of 23 mio. people. The current protein balance is therefore negative.

Source:

https://okologi.dk/media/owkjpddm/fftf2.pdf

91.

https://www.ft.dk/samling/20171/almdel/MOF/bilag/281/1858307.pdf