Udenrigsudvalget 2023-24, Det Udenrigspolitiske Nævn 2023-24
URU Alm.del Bilag 75, UPN Alm.del Bilag 61
Offentligt
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Preliminary Estimates
 URU, Alm.del - 2023-24 - Bilag 75: Baggrundsmateriale til briefingen med UNDP om situationen i Gaza den 15. december 2023
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the speed with which the war in Gaza
has accelerated poverty in a
population already vulnerable even
before this crisis is deeply concerning.
 URU, Alm.del - 2023-24 - Bilag 75: Baggrundsmateriale til briefingen med UNDP om situationen i Gaza den 15. december 2023
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the shock due to this war has
been severe to the whole
Palestinian economy and not
only to Gaza
.
 URU, Alm.del - 2023-24 - Bilag 75: Baggrundsmateriale til briefingen med UNDP om situationen i Gaza den 15. december 2023
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On top of the immediate humanitarian catastrophe, we
see unfolding; there is also a
development crisis.
The war will have a
long-lasting negative impact
on
human development.
 URU, Alm.del - 2023-24 - Bilag 75: Baggrundsmateriale til briefingen med UNDP om situationen i Gaza den 15. december 2023
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The economic consequences of the war will have direct and
indirect effects on the humanitarian situation, and vice versa
ALMOST 1.5 MILLION PEOPLE IN GAZA INTERNALLY DISPLACED
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE WAR
.
THERE IS LARGE-SCALE DESTRUCTION,
ESPECIALLY OF THE HOUSING UNITS.
THE ASSESSMENT PREDICTS THAT THE ESTIMATED
ECONOMIC DOWNTURN WILL
EXACERBATE THE CATASTROPHIC HUMANITARIAN SITUATION &
WILL MAKE RECOVERY PROSPECTS CHALLENGING AND SLOW.
 URU, Alm.del - 2023-24 - Bilag 75: Baggrundsmateriale til briefingen med UNDP om situationen i Gaza den 15. december 2023
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Expected Socio-Economic Impacts
of the Gaza War
on Neighboring Countries
in the Arab States Region
Preliminary Estimates
 URU, Alm.del - 2023-24 - Bilag 75: Baggrundsmateriale til briefingen med UNDP om situationen i Gaza den 15. december 2023
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The humanitarian system in Gaza is on the edge of
collapse and each day this war continues, the ripple
effect on neighbouring counties in the Arab States
region will have lasting socioeconomic setbacks.
POVERTY
Egypt |Jordan | Lebanon
Number of poor (1,000)
387
3-month Scenario
230,000 will fall into
poverty by end 2023
6-month Scenario
Over 500,000 will fall
into poverty in 2024
174
96
43
14
Jordan
Lebanon
26
(six-months scenario)
(three-months scenario)
Egypt
 URU, Alm.del - 2023-24 - Bilag 75: Baggrundsmateriale til briefingen med UNDP om situationen i Gaza den 15. december 2023
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Due to the effects of reduced tourism activities, and
other changes in the economy, such as those affecting
investment, productivity and trade, the combine GDP
will sustain losses.
GDP
Egypt |Jordan | Lebanon
Combined GDP loss
$ (billion)
%
3-month Scenario
Aggregate Loss
US$ 10.3 billion
= -2.3%
6-month Scenario
Aggregate Loss
US$ 18.0 billion
= -4.0%
-2.3
-4.0
-10.3
-18.0
3-month
6-month
 URU, Alm.del - 2023-24 - Bilag 75: Baggrundsmateriale til briefingen med UNDP om situationen i Gaza den 15. december 2023
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The war will have a long-lasting negative impact
on human development.
Human
Development
Egypt |Jordan | Lebanon
Human Development Index Trends 2000-2023
0,8
0,75
3-month Scenario
2 years in all
3 countries
6-month Scenario
At least 3 years in
all 3 countries
0,7
0,65
0,6
0,55
0,5
hdi_egy
hdi_jor
hdi_leb
 URU, Alm.del - 2023-24 - Bilag 75: Baggrundsmateriale til briefingen med UNDP om situationen i Gaza den 15. december 2023
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The crisis hit at a time when all three countries have
limited policy space to address it impacts, because of
pre-existing structural gaps and more recent impacts
(including from COVID-19 and the Ukraine war).
SO FAR, THE REGIONAL EFFECTS HAVE LARGELY BEEN CONTAINED BUT ARE
BIG ENOUGH DURING SUCH A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TO PROVIDE
.
GROUNDS FOR CONCERN.
UNLESS THE WAR ENDS SOON, THE SPILLOVER EFFECTS ON THE STATE OF
PALESTINE’S IMMEDIATE NEIGHBORS CAN BE SIGNIFICANT
IF THE GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE WAR EXPANDS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
IMPACT WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.
SHORT-TERM EFFECTS CAN HAVE LONG LASTING IMPACTS.
 URU, Alm.del - 2023-24 - Bilag 75: Baggrundsmateriale til briefingen med UNDP om situationen i Gaza den 15. december 2023
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UNDP's Programme of Assistance to the
Palestinian People (PAPP)
Crisis Response and Early Recovery
Framework
 URU, Alm.del - 2023-24 - Bilag 75: Baggrundsmateriale til briefingen med UNDP om situationen i Gaza den 15. december 2023
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Crisis
Response and
Early Recovery
Framework
Approach
-
All-of-Palestine
-
Integrated
programming (e.g.
area-based)
-
Promoting social
cohesion
-
Risk management
and due diligence