Klima-, Energi- og Forsyningsudvalget 2023-24
KEF Alm.del Bilag 69
Offentligt
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Climate Neutral Power
System 2035
How the German power sector can
become climate neutral by 2035
Simon Müller
BERLIN / COPENHAGEN, 16 NOVEMBER 2023
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Germany has set itself ambitious targets for renewable
energies in late 2021 – and is making progress despite the
impact of the energy crisis.
Share of renewable energies in gross electricity consumption
Target 2030
according to coalition agreement:
80% electricity generation from renewable
energies
with 750 TWh gross electricity
consumption
Adjustment of tender quantities
taking into
account construction and planning times as
well as offshore grid connections
Multiple measures to accelerate project
implementation
and scale renewables
deployment.
Solar PV exceeding targets in
2023,
but wind lagging behind.
The
use of renewable energies is in the
overriding public interest
and serves
national security
Additional measures to scale grid
infrastructure and flexibility.
Historical development: AGEE-Stat (2022)
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Agora Energiewende has commissioned Prognos and
Consentec to investigate what is needed to achieve the 80
percent target and a climate-neutral electricity system by 2035.
KNS2035 is based on the "Climate Neutral Germany 2045" study
The study "Climate Neutral Electricity System
2035" (KNS2035) further develops "Climate
Neutral Germany 2045" (KNDE2045).
KNS2035 picks up on the new federal
government's targets for renewable electricity
generation and consumption.
The study examines electricity generation,
-consumption and transmission networks and
derives political recommendations for action.
Prognos AG has modelled electricity
generation and
-consumption, based on which Consentec
GmbH prepared a supplementary grid analysis.
Agora Energiewende (2021), Agora Energiewende (2022)
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Electricity market
modelling: Climate-
neutral electricity system
2035
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With a massive expansion, wind and solar are the supporting
pillars of the climate-neutral electricity system in 2035.
Renewable energies (installed capacity and net electricity generation)
Onshore wind is the largest contributor to net
RES-E generation, accounting for 40 percent.
Photovoltaics make a contribution of one third,
while offshore accounts for one quarter.
In 2035, the share of renewables in electricity
generation is 89 per cent direct generation
from renewables and 7 per cent generation
from hydrogen power plants.
Since Germany is a net exporter, the share of
renewables in electricity consumption is
arithmetically over 100 percent.
Prognos (2022)
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80 percent renewable electricity by 2030 and gas-fired power plants
increasingly powered by green hydrogen secure the coal phase-out
by 2030 and enable a climate-neutral electricity system by 2035.
Net electricity generation
The KNS2035 scenario shows a viable path to
achieving 80 per cent RE in 2030 and climate-
neutral electricity in 2035.
The coal phase-out in 2030 remains possible
through market instruments and RE expansion.
A rapid switch to hydrogen reduces natural gas
consumption and thus emissions. The share of
natural gas in electricity generation is only 2
per cent in 2035. In addition, there is 1 per cent
electricity generation from the combustion of
waste and blast furnace gas.
Parallel to the RE expansion, dispatchable
gas-fired power plants will be used in the
2030s to cover the residual load
High export surpluses in the long term if
Germany proceeds with RE expansion
compared to other countries.
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Prognos AG (2022)
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Electrolysers, electric vehicles, heat pumps and electric boilers
increase the demand for electricity. Their flexibility potential must be
increased in order to use wind and solar power efficiently.
Gross electricity consumption in the KNS2035 scenario
The level of future electricity demand is a key
driver for the necessary RE expansion demand
and the electricity system as a whole. It is
crucial that electricity is used efficiently and,
where possible, flexibly.
The increasing electrification of heat
generation, industry and transport as well as
hydrogen production will increase electricity
demand to around 726 TWh by 2030.
Conventional electricity consumption stagnates
as efficiency gains and more consumers offset
each other.
New consumers offer considerable flexibility
potential. These must be mobilised
comprehensively in order to efficiently match
supply and demand.
Prognos (2022)
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A climate-neutral electricity grid in 2035 requires a
considerably faster grid expansion to 50,000 electricity circuit
kilometres.
Grid quantity structures of the German transmission grid
The total circuit length in the German
transmission grid will grow from approx. 35,000
km today to approx. 50,000 km in 2035 - in all
sensitivities. For this, grid expansion and
reinforcement measures are preferable.
The expansion of renewable energies and grid
expansion must continue beyond 2035 in order
to meet the increase in electricity demand
through electrification and the rising demand
for European electricity exchange.
Forward-looking and integrated planning of the
electricity, gas and heat grids is necessary to
guarantee the economic and speedy grid
expansion and conversion of the entire
German energy infrastructure
Consentec GmbH (2022)
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Recommendations for action (1/2)
Develop an integrated system development plan by mid-2024
that includes the overall grid
infrastructure required for climate neutrality.
Continued acceleration of planning and approval procedures to
enable the timely expansion of
renewable electricity generation as well as electricity and hydrogen grids.
Maintain the necessary investment conditions for the expansion of renewable energies:
in
future introduce a symmetrical market premium; support expansion on the basis of long-term supply
contracts (PPAs) and further simplify the rules for self-consumption and local concepts.
Ensure the necessary expansion of controllable power plants and their switch to 100%
hydrogen:
Clarify the investment framework for controllable power plants; introduce a market ramp-
up instrument for hydrogen use, especially in the CHP sector
→
Power Plant strategy
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Recommendations for action (2/2)
Explore options for the introduction of geographic signals in the electricity market to
address
structural congestion in the transmission grid.
Implement
innovative operating concepts and technologies for electricity grid operation
quickly and reliably: Development of a package of measures for
100% RE system operation;
introduction of a monitoring process for
100% RE system operation.
Immediate reform of grid charges in order to increase flexibility potential:
Incentivise
consumption in times of high RES-E generation; abolish existing exceptions that hinder flexible use;
push at EU level for more energy transition-oriented specifications on grid charges.
Intelligent distribution grid operation and faster smart meter rollout to control decentralised
flexibilities:
Adapt grid regulation to encourage intelligent distribution grid operation; significantly
simplify framework conditions for smart meter rollout; direct supply of important decentralised
flexibilities such as e-cars or decentralised storage (split supply).
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Agora Energiewende
Anna-Louisa-Karsch-Str.2
10178 Berlin
T
+49 (0)30 700 1435 - 000
F
+49 (0)30 700 1435 - 129
www.agora-energiewende.de
Abonnieren sie unseren Newsletter unter
www.agora-energiewende.de
www.twitter.com/AgoraEW
Vielen Dank für Ihre
Aufmerksamkeit!
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Kontaktieren Sie mich gerne:
[email protected]
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Adjustable power plants, storage facilities, electricity
exchange with European neighbours and flexible consumers
ensure the balance between supply and demand.
Adjustable power
In the climate-neutral electricity system of
2035, the installed capacity of gas-fired power
plants doubles from 30 GW (2022) to 61 GW
(2035). New power plants must already be 100
per cent H
2
-ready today.
Flexible consumers contribute to short-term
balancing and thus to the efficient use of
renewables.
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Demand-side management - electromobility,
heat generators and electrolysers - must be
operated in a system-serving and thus flexible
manner from the outset in order to strengthen
RE system integration (e.g.
vehicle-to-grid).
Battery storage and pumped storage power
plants also offer considerable flexibility
potential.
Prognos AG (2022)
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Gas-fired power plants are needed above all for security of
supply in the winter half-year.
Monthly structure of generation and consumption
(Electricity generation or demand., 2035, in TWh)
Controllable gas-fired power plants generate
between 107 TWh (2030) and 86 TWh (2035)
of electricity, with a downward trend.
Hydrogen is increasingly replacing natural gas
(share of natural gas in electricity generation
2035: 2 percent).
Gas-fired power plants are mainly needed for
security of supply in the winter half-year. 1/3
(20 GW) generates 75 per cent of the total gas-
fired power generation in 2035. The last third is
operated for only a few hours per year.
Electrolysers use surplus RE electricity and
work in a mirror image of gas-fired power
plants.
Prognos AG (2022)
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