URU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 286: Orientering om den nye strategiske ramme for Bangladesh 2022-28

Udenrigsudvalget 2021-22
URU Alm.del Bilag 286
Offentligt

Denmark-Bangladesh

Strategic Framework

2022-2028

F2: 2022-20149

URU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 286: Orientering om den nye strategiske ramme for Bangladesh 2022-28

Table of Contents

A. Denmark in Bangladesh: Vision and strategic direction ................................................................................. 2

B. Context: Achievements, challenges and risks ................................................................................................. 4

C. Danish political priorities, achievements, and strengths ................................................................................ 9

D. Strategic objectives ....................................................................................................................................... 12

Green, sustainable and socially just economic growth ................................................................................. 12

Climate adaptation, stability and conflict mitigation .................................................................................... 14

Monitoring of Denmark’s broad engagement in Bangladesh

....................................................................... 15

E. Bangladesh bilateral development programme 2023-2028.......................................................................... 16

Development projects in support of green, inclusive and sustainable production sectors .......................... 17

Development projects targeting resilience of vulnerable groups affected by climate change .................... 18

Indicative budget for Bangladesh Bilateral Development Programme 2023-2028 ...................................... 20

Annex 1. Map of Bangladesh ............................................................................................................................. 21

Annex 2. Key Figures for Bangladesh ................................................................................................................ 22

Annex 3. BSF Monitoring framework ................................................................................................................ 23

URU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 286: Orientering om den nye strategiske ramme for Bangladesh 2022-28

A. Denmark in Bangladesh: Vision and strategic direction

Bangladesh is one of the

world’s fastest growing developing nations

with a sustained very positive

economic outlook. From being one of the poorest nations at constitution in 1971, Bangladesh

reached lower-middle income status in 2015 and is now on track to graduate from the UN's Least

Developed Countries (LDC) list in 2026

–

a recognition of the sustained developmental successes

that Bangladesh has achieved over the past few decades.

Bangladesh is at the same time one of the

world’s

most vulnerable countries to the impacts

of global warming and climate change, and it is primarily the most vulnerable people who still

struggle to see socio-economic progress and who are expected to be hit the hardest by climate

change. The UN estimates that one in seven Bangladeshi may experience climate-induced

displacement by 2050.

Bangladesh and Denmark’s shared concern over climate change, environmental damage and loss of

biodiversity being the greatest challenge of our time, has been manifested in a

‘Sustainable and

Green Framework Engagement’ signed by the two countries in 2022 with the aim to work for a

sustainable and greener future together.

Against

this backdrop, Denmark’s ‘Bangladesh

Strategic Framework 2022-2028’ will be guided by

the commitment to address the climate response at a global and national level while simultaneously

focusing on growth, equity and environmental protection for a more resilient, prosperous and

socially just future. In this pursuit, the framework will leverage Danish strengths across sectors

ranging from climate diplomacy, green business opportunities, innovation and research, and

government-to-government strategic sector cooperation.

The framework builds on 50 years partnership, which predominantly has focused on traditional

development cooperation. The decades of support to e.g. the agriculture, fisheries and water sectors,

democracy and human rights, including the rights of women and indigenous peoples, has created a

solid platform for political dialogue between Denmark and Bangladesh. In tandem,

Bangladesh’s

continued solid economic growth has given impetus to

Denmark’s trade

relations with the country

with increased investments and business relations.

With this strategic framework, it is the ambition that Denmark in the period 2022-2028 will

accelerate the transition from a traditional development partnership towards a partnership borne by

economic diplomacy with a special view to

Denmark’s ambitions in

the SDG and climate agenda.

An important element in the transition will be to pursue a role for private sector investments in

enabling a green, digital and sustainable socioeconomic transition in Bangladesh.

URU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 286: Orientering om den nye strategiske ramme for Bangladesh 2022-28

The overall vision of the Danish engagement in Bangladesh 2022-2028

is that:

Bangladesh is transitioning towards a sustainable, green, and socially just society through a

comprehensive commercial and political partnership with Denmark.

The vision will be pursued through

two strategic objectives

for the period, namely

•

Promote a green and socially sustainable economic transition

Reduce inequality and improve social cohesion and resilience in fragile communities

The strategic objectives will be complemented by cross-cutting priorities such as the preservation of

democracy and human rights, empowerment of youth, and improving gender equality, specifically

the protection of women’s and girl’s rights.

With a view to the Danish Foreign, Security, Trade and Development Policies, Denmark will in this

endeavor bring all relevant instruments into use to promote change and pursue Danish interests and

priorities. These instruments include political dialogue, bilateral development projects, Strategic

Partnerships with Danish NGOs, academic research, Strategic Sector Cooperation, business

instruments, and multilateral engagements at both national and global level.

The expanded partnership approach will entail coherent and coordinated actions whereby Danish

instruments will be supplemented by engagement with relevant stakeholders and actors across

society - and a close collaboration with the EU and the UN in particular. Through this partnership,

Denmark and Bangladesh will be able to tap into the knowledge, skills and expertise held by Danish

authorities, civil society and the private sector in pursuit of the above vision.

URU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 286: Orientering om den nye strategiske ramme for Bangladesh 2022-28

B. Context: Achievements, challenges and risks

Economic Growth, Human Development and Active Multilateralism

Bangladesh is becoming a country of substantial economic and political weight, rendering it an

important partner for Denmark in South Asia.

According to IMF and the World Bank, Bangladesh’s

economy is expected to cross USD 500 billion over the next five years. With a total population of

168 million, and an average annual growth rate of 7%, Bangladesh could within 20 years be among

the world’s 25 largest economies. The country’s economic recovery after

the first two years of the

Covid-19 pandemic signaled its overall resilience to economic shocks.

Bangladesh was included in the Lower Middle Income Country group in 2015, and will graduate

from the

United Nation’s

Least Developed Country (LDC) category in 2026. While these are

important milestones

in Bangladesh’s development,

it will mean that Bangladesh will face duties and

possibly reduced trade benefits with international markets. Continued preferential access to the

European market will depend on i.a. improved labour conditions, and sustained competitiveness will

require more environmentally friendly and socially oriented value chains across all sectors.

The economy of Bangladesh is vulnerable due to its heavy dependence on the garment sector, which

constitutes 80 pct. of the export. The pharmaceutical sector is slowly growing with exports to more

than 125 countries, including the EU. The information and communications technology industry has

also grown steadily over the last years, with increased outsourcing by European companies. As most

imports to Bangladesh are sourced from China and India, there is an opportunity to improve the trade

balance between Bangladesh and the EU. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from the EU remains

limited, amounting to only USD 2 million annually.

The ILO-World Bank estimated before the Covid-outbreak that one out of four youth were not in

employment in Bangladesh. As a consequence, many young people seek migrant job opportunities in

the Gulf States, making migration another key driver of economic growth as remittances contribute

to 8-10 pct. of the GDP. Irregular migration has increasingly become a challenge as the Gulf States

intake has been reduced.

In human development terms Bangladesh has made great strides, including an impressive decline in

child and maternal mortality, and a rise in life expectancy from 58 years in 1990 to 72 years in 2019.

Expected years of schooling increased from 5.6 to 11.6 years, and GNI per capita from USD 1,554 to

4,976 in the same time span. The pandemic has, however, led to significant learning loss and

negatively impacted education levels in the country because Bangladesh had one of the longest

school closures in the world.

Bangladesh is an active multilateral player supporting rules-based international order and common

progress of humankind with engagements in particular in the climate agenda, freedom of religion,

peacekeeping and peacebuilding.

Climate change and vulnerability

Placed in a delta and with extremely high population density, Bangladesh is on the frontline of

climate change, with effects being felt acutely in both rural and urban areas. An estimated 90 million

Bangladeshis live in “high climate exposure areas”, and up to 30 million people could be displaced

from coastal areas in the coming decades. In the longer term, a sea-level rise of 45cm by 2100 is

estimated to submerge more than 10% of Bangladesh’s territory.

URU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 286: Orientering om den nye strategiske ramme for Bangladesh 2022-28

The high exposure to climate change is in particular a threat to the last decades’ positive growth in

agricultural productivity. Bangladesh has become self-sufficient in grains, but the productivity is

gradually stagnating, and the sector faces challenges to achieving food security for the population.

Higher profitability, productivity through mechanization, irrigation expansions, modern and climate

smart agricultural production methods, and flood control are means to overcome the challenge.

Apart from food insecurity, the millions already living in chronic poverty in Bangladesh risk facing

an aggravated health insecurity due to climate change, just as it can contribute to loss of land and

livelihoods, which will heighten the risk of conflict and human insecurity, and risk causing climate-

induced displacement.

The Government of Bangladesh has shown impressive leadership in its disaster risk reduction and

climate adaptation efforts. It has been allocating own financial resources and been successful in

accessing International Climate Funds.

On the emission side, in spite of

the country’s drive for industrialization, Bangladesh has committed

itself to generating 40% of its energy from renewable sources by 2041. Currently, renewable energy

accounts for approximately 3% of its energy production.

Trade potential

In 2021, Danish exports to Bangladesh stood at DKK 650 million and imports from Bangladesh were

at DKK 6.3 billion.

The middle-class

–

now 12 million people

–

is growing faster than in any other Asian country.

Anticipating that the Bangladeshi economy will sustain an average 7% annual growth rate, by 2026,

the GDP (nominal) will cross USD 500 Billion with a $3,200 GDP/capita. This growth is partially

export driven but significantly relies on domestic consumption driven by the large population that

fuel a rapidly growing economy with an increasing industrial base, urbanization and infrastructure

needs. With this development comes a rising purchasing power pointing to a consumer market for a

range of advanced products and services.

Fossil fuel accounts for 85% of the total energy generated in Bangladesh. But the demand for

energy

efficiency and renewable

energy is increasing rapidly. Bangladesh aims to increase electricity from

renewables from 3% to 10% by 2025. Investments are also required to achieve

Bangladesh’s target

of quality and uninterrupted supply of electricity to all, through integrated development of power

generation, transmission, and distribution.

Clean and safe drinking

water to all is equally a goal in which the Danish private sector have strong

competencies

–

both through knowhow and technical solutions. The government has the mandate of

providing clean and safe drinking water to all, and will thus invest significantly, also in hard-to-

reach-areas such as the remote islands and coastal areas of Bangladesh.

Wastewater solutions

is equally high on the agenda, with a separate allocation under the national

budget to address climate challenges and ensure a sustainable environment. Policies are in place, and

factories, companies and stakeholders will now have to move towards more efficient technologies for

water usage and water treatment. This is highly relevant for the garment industry and tanneries, but

also for a wide range of other industries, including the medical.

Food and agriculture

has for decades been of interest for Danish companies doing business in

Bangladesh; ranging from dairy production, to food and beverages production, to cold chain and

URU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 286: Orientering om den nye strategiske ramme for Bangladesh 2022-28

storage. The market is not only expected to grow, but will also evolve to demand state-of-the-art

testing facilities and equipment, capacity building of key stakeholders in the value chain, including

the public authorities, to cooperate and constructively support its manufacturers and exporters by

ensuring quality control and certification of food products.

There is a broad recognition that Bangladesh’s private sector must diversify to secure and sustain the

growth of the overall economy. This requires broad-based business environment reforms, which

tackle social and governance issues, ensure rule-based predictability for investors, transparency, and

skills and competences development

of the country’s youth.

Poverty and fragility

Although Bangladesh has achieved significant economic growth and trade potential, the gains are

unequally distributed and inequality remains a key concern.

In 2019, 10% of the population accounted for approximately 43 pct. of GDP, while the poorest 50

pct. shared 17 pct. At least 20 million people are locked in extreme poverty. The fragility of the

poorest was clearly seen during the time of the Covid-pandemic, when urban slums saw a per capita

income drop of 75% and rural populations of 62%.

Minorities, including indigenous peoples, continue to suffer disproportionally from poverty,

violations of rights, and insecurity linked to local conflict. The fragile situation in the Chittagong Hill

Tracts, where the indigenous peoples are poorer and have less access to social services than the

national average, represents a particular set of problems. The government is yet to fully implement a

Peace Accord from 1997 to address tens of thousands of grievances on access to land.

In general,

Bangladesh’s economy generates too few jobs and income opportunities for the several

millions young people who enter the labour market each year. Half the population is below the age of

24 years and while youth represents a substantial potential dividend, it also comes with a risk of

disenfranchisement and social unrest arising out of unmet expectations. There is a risk of instability

and irregular migration if the job market cannot respond to their demands.

Rohingyas

Almost one million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar

have taken shelter in Cox’s

Bazar, a poor as

well as environmentally fragile part of the country, where they now out-number the local population

in some sub-districts. As the situation becomes more protracted, tensions between the host

community and the Rohingya refugee population continue to build. Risks of escalating local conflicts

are increasing due to the dense population and the already affected environment, with no

perspectives of a solution to the situation.

Continued support to

both the host community’s and the refugees’

needs

–

also with a view to

conflict mitigation

–

will remain critical to reduce poverty and instability in this part of Bangladesh.

Democracy and Human Rights

Bangladesh’s constitution provides for a parliamentary form of government in which most power

resides in the Office of the Prime Minister. While the country enjoys a relatively strong political

stability, Human Rights defenders report pressure on democracy, rule of law, and human rights such

as freedom of speech and association.

URU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 286: Orientering om den nye strategiske ramme for Bangladesh 2022-28

Corruption remains a challenge for the country. According to Transparency International,

Bangladesh performs comparatively poorly in the South Asian region, with many public institutions

perceived to be corrupt.

Civil society in Bangladesh is vibrant and active, but suffers from weak capacity and governance

issues. The space for civil society interventions has been shrinking in Bangladesh. Media freedom

has also decreased according to Human Rights organisations. Bureaucratic and cumbersome

registration and approval processes have adversely affected CSO activities. This has limited

platforms for marginalized groups, poor people, youth, and women and girls to claim their rights for

access to services, jobs, and incomes.

During Covid-19, child marriages, domestic violence, gender-based violence, and abuse have been

on the rise. Women and girls suffer the most due to the weak respect for human rights with studies

showing that more than 70% were victims of Gender Based Violence incidents during Covid-19

crisis.

Bangladesh’s rates

for child marriage remain among the highest in South Asia. While 3-4

million women are employed in the garment sector, jobs for women are still culturally constrained to

a few low-paying sectors.

Role of development partners in the transition

Bangladesh’s net ODA,

in relation to imports of goods, services and primary income, has declined

from 67% in 1977 to 6.7% in 2019. Today, the greater part of the ODA goes into larger investments

in infrastructure.

The LDC graduation is anticipated to cause an additional reduction in development funding. Many

traditional development partners have already seen a reduction, and UN agencies, funds and

programmes have all experienced a decline in regular resource allocation for country programmes,

development programmes and humanitarian assistance.

As Bangladesh and its partners pursue the SDG agenda, the country will have to make the most out

of the available resources in this transition period. While new and innovative partnerships are

essential in this pursuit, the implementation capacity and the importance of catalytic approaches

should also be considered.

URU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 286: Orientering om den nye strategiske ramme for Bangladesh 2022-28

Box 1

Risks and scenarios for Bangladesh

The achievement of the strategic objectives for the Danish partnership with Bangladesh depends

on political, economic and social developments as well as a range of associated risk factors.

In the positive scenario and as targeted by the Government, Bangladesh will continue its fast

economic and social development towards becoming a UN “Developed Country”

by 2041. This will

require a continued high level of economic growth. This kind of growth can only spur from

maintaining access to current export markets, diversification of the economy, greater FDI,

infrastructure development, and the prevalence of a skilled work force. It will also be fueled by

the growing middle class who seek better living conditions and demand more advanced products

and services. The social changes will likely lead to domestic understanding and support for the

government’s international climate leadership.

There will likely be a demand for a green transition

because the environmental and climate damage will be extensive and affect livability.

Reduction of poverty will continue and the state will gradually have the capacity to take

responsibility to offer greater social protection, whereas today many gaps in social services are

filled by NGOs. This scenario requires political stability in the country, which implies that the

question of political succession is resolved peacefully with ample democratic space and no human

rights violations. Climate displaced persons are absorbed into economic activities and urban

regions, and there is minimal consequence of rapid urbanization caused by climate-induced

migration.

In the negative scenario, Bangladesh loses its competitive edge in the international garment

sector before being able to move to the high-value-added production markets, the country falls

into the Middle Income Trap, sees low foreign investment, has limited industrial diversification,

and poor labour market conditions. Bangladesh does not achieve the preferential market access

to the European market after losing its privileged access in 2029. Other real risk factors for this

situation are the lack of skilled workers due to lack of quality education at all levels. Lack of

predictability as well as of a level playing field and unchecked corruption may continue to

discourage FDI and hamper Danish companies’ interest in the market. Lack of ability of the state

to deliver on economic growth and incrementally improve quality of life may undermine its

legitimacy and contribute to social disorder. Furthermore, the question of political succession

could become the cause of massive civil unrest in the country during a period of transition. The

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) noted that the greatest single impact of

climate change could be on human migration with a predicted number of 200 million displaced by

2050, and Bangladesh will not be spared. Finally, social and economic disenfranchisement

contributes to social fragmentation and rise in radical ideologies and religious extremism, which

could undermine a secular society committed to democracy and human rights.

Except for major disruptors in the world market or losing the preferential access to the European

market, none of the challenges are unsurmountable and Bangladesh is mainly set on the positive

scenario. However, difficult reforms will be required, including touching on vested interests, which

will challenge the government’s ability to keep the risks

in check, and there will surely be bumps

on the road to becoming an emerging market and beyond.

URU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 286: Orientering om den nye strategiske ramme for Bangladesh 2022-28

C. Danish political priorities, achievements, and strengths

Denmark’s

50 years of bilateral development partnership with Bangladesh has contributed

significantly to local development in areas such as governance and human rights, gender equality and

protection against gender based violence, humanitarian protection, climate adaptation and mitigation,

livelihoods development, access to clean water, agricultural development and improved

infrastructure and has been contributing factors to

Bangladesh’s impressive

social and economic

development.

The longstanding and committed

partnership has contributed to Bangladesh’s trust in

Denmark being

a credible bilateral partner. It provides a strong platform for a continued dynamic, broad and adaptive

partnership which will be

required in Denmark’s gradual shift from

a traditional development

partnership towards a partnership driven by economic diplomacy intending to push for a green and

socially sustainable development.

In this endeavour, Denmark will ensure that learnings from past achievements inform the selection of

instruments and the design of specific activities nationally in Bangladesh, and through joint pursuits

at the global level.

Climate diplomacy

In line with

the Danish Government’s

Strategy for Development Cooperation,

“The World

Share”,

the Foreign and Security

policy, and Denmark’s commitment to the

Sustainable

Development Goals (SDGs), Denmark and Bangladesh have embarked on a bilateral

‘Sustainable

and Green Framework Engagement’.

This will guide the joint endeavor towards the targets set in

the 2030 Agenda and the Paris Climate Agreement.

Denmark will

pursue shared priorities with Bangladesh in the international climate agenda and

negotiation process,

and push jointly for progress in relevant multilateral forums. Joint efforts in

this regard will build on

Bangladesh’s

leading role in the climate negotiations and its active role in

the Climate Vulnerable Forum,

and Denmark’s strengths in promoting

green technologies.

In support of the climate vulnerable communities, Denmark will

strengthen its engagement in

climate change adaptation and healthier ecosystems

for the global and local benefit and to address

the root causes for climate induced displacement. Denmark will ensure that this benefits the most

vulnerable and marginalized people of Bangladesh, including women and girls, who are also most

vulnerable to climate change, shocks and disasters. Focus will be on strengthening resilience of local

communities through improved access to clean water and climate smart agricultural value chains.

Economic diplomacy

Denmark will pursue the ‘triple bottom line’, and insist on both strengthening the potential for

Danish private sector engagements in Bangladesh, and purposefully work towards ensuring

Bangladesh’s stake in a green and socially just global agenda. Focus will be on efforts

across the

public and private actors, and work towards a mutual understanding of

social responsibility in the

value chains,

which nurture

Bangladesh’s industry’s

demand for greener energy sources, more

energy efficient and climate smart productions, and better working conditions in Bangladesh. Danish

companies are able to contribute to the green transition by technology transfer and through green

investments.

URU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 286: Orientering om den nye strategiske ramme for Bangladesh 2022-28

Box 2

Green transition - Knowledge transfer

In the ongoing transition from an expanded partnership to a targeted partnership revolving around

green transition and climate action, it is essential to strengthen dialogue and partnerships between a

broad range of Danish and Bangladeshi actors. It will be the role of the Embassy in Dhaka - with support

from the Foreign Ministry in Copenhagen and other relevant Danish authorities, represented i.a.

through sector counsellors, to stimulate the learning, knowledge sharing, networks, results and lessons

gained through collaboration with Bangladeshi partner authorities.

Also Danish business associations and the Danish private sector representatives’ engagement will be

essential in this transition as a means to engage in sustainable and green solutions and investments,

framework and market conditions that enable a level-playing

field in markets for “green” solutions e.g.

in the water and/or food production sectors where Danish firms can offer best-practice solutions.

Value diplomacy

In accordance with Denmark’s Foreign and Security Policy, Denmark will engage in the fight for

democratic values, promote international rule of law, and respect for human rights to

create

hope and

equal opportunities for all.

Denmark will together with and through the Nordic partners,

the EU and the UN, and in open dialogue with Bangladesh, ensure an active focus on these values

with a view to

contribute

to Bangladesh’s continued stability,

which is fundamental to the

continued sustainable growth. This requires a broad focus also on drivers of inequality, communal

tensions, and matters relating to religious intolerance and violent extremism.

Danish focus will be on a few critical areas where past Danish engagements provide a relevant basis

for engaging, such as labour rights, gender equality and rights of girls and women, and indigenous

peoples’ rights.

Migration Diplomacy

Denmark will continue its efforts to help uncover sustainable economic prospects for vulnerable

people where they live. Observing how irregular migration from Bangladesh to the EU has increased

over the past years, Denmark will maintain a strong focus on

decent jobs

as a contribution to sustain

livelihoods and equitable economic development. The joint Team Europe Initiatives will support

better

job opportunities for youth

who enter the job market.

Humanitarian support

The situation of the Rohingyas has become a protracted crisis, which calls for an effective

international response and coordination. Denmark will

address both the humanitarian and

development dimensions of the Rohingya crises

and provide support to both Rohingyas and the

communities affected by the large influx. Given the anticipated protracted nature of the crisis, local

leadership and sustainable solutions will be sought.

URU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 286: Orientering om den nye strategiske ramme for Bangladesh 2022-28

Box 3

Overview of Denmark’s most important instruments in Bangladesh

Active political dialogue on political priorities, including through the EU and other multilateral

fora

Bilateral development programme

Climate Funds

Strategic Partnership Agreements with Danish NGOs

Danida Development Research Grants

Strategic Sector Cooperation

Danida Green Business Partnerships

Danida Sustainable Infrastructure Finance, IFU, EKF/Green Accelerator and other financing

mechanisms

Through EU: NDICI and Team Europe Initiatives

Multilateral engagement at both national and global level with an envisioned focus on the

Green Climate Fund, the Global Environment Facility, UNDP, UNFPA, UNHCR, WFP, and the

World Bank.

URU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 286: Orientering om den nye strategiske ramme for Bangladesh 2022-28

D. Strategic objectives

This section unfolds the two strategic objectives and describes how Denmark

–

through coherent

efforts across policy areas and instruments

–

will pursue these.

The first Strategic Objective

focuses on the green partnership for Bangladesh’s sustainable and fair

transition, while the second addresses vulnerability of populations living with severe livelihood risks

or humanitarian needs, due to climate change, conflict, and marginalization.

The work to support the Strategic Objectives will revolve around five areas of varied

interconnectivity. For each area of intervention, selected tools and approaches are applied building

on past achievements, strengths, and new opportunities. Each area of intervention works primarily

towards one of the two objectives, but also support the other.

Respect for human rights and concerns for gender and youth are cross-cutting, and all initiatives and

instruments will be designed and applied with respect to the Human Rights Based Approach.

Green, sustainable and socially just economic growth

Strategic objective 1: Promote a green and socially sustainable economic transition

Advancing a growth process that generates greener and better opportunities for more people is

integral in the Danish partnership with Bangladesh.

Of the five thematic areas of interventions, three will in particular relate to this. One will directly

promote Danish-Bangladeshi business partnerships on green and responsible solutions, and as such

URU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 286: Orientering om den nye strategiske ramme for Bangladesh 2022-28

provide the foundation for the growing commercial partnership between Bangladesh and Denmark.

The other two work to promote the enabling conditions for a greener and more sustainable industry

and responsible value chains by advancing more environmentally friendly production and by

introducing more responsible labour practices. All three are closely related and of high relevance to

the transition towards a sustainable, green, and socially just society supported by the business sector.

Synergies will be sought in the implementation.

Expanding green commercial relations

–

Danish solutions to sustainability

In support of SDGs 6 (clean water), 7 (affordable energy) 11 (sustainable cities and communities)

and 12 (responsible consumption and production), this area of intervention will work to increase the

number and extent of partnerships between Danish and Bangladeshi private sector enterprises

interested in connecting the local market with the global demand for sustainable solutions and

emerging markets.

Denmark is well-positioned to support

Bangladesh’s ambitions to promote a greener economy,

with

strong-holds in water solutions and food and agriculture in particular, but also in relation to

sustainable building construction, energy efficiency, life sciences, and shipping and logistics.

Denmark will engage in improving the business climate to underpin more interest from Danish

companies.

Greening the production sectors

Building on a long-term development engagement in two specific sectors, namely food & agriculture

and garment, Denmark will in particular focus on these sectors, when supporting more

environmentally friendly production practices and value chains. This is fully in line with

Bangladesh’s

own commitment to promote a greener economy and a more resilient society. It will

help fulfill SDG 12 (responsible consumption and production) and 13 (climate action).

The garment sector is the economic backbone of the country and many Danish garment brands

source from Bangladesh. The country has been subject to criticism for its negative environmental

and social impact leading to substantial efforts of cleaner and more responsible production in the

recent years. The national and international demand for a more environmentally friendly and

sustainable garment sector requires a continued focus by relevant stakeholders.

The agricultural sector accounts for less than 20 per cent of GDP, but is highly relevant as it employs

more than 40% of

Bangladesh’s

labour force. The sector experiences high post-harvest loss caused

by poor product quality and insufficient cool chain. There is a demand for a climate-smart transition

of the production in Bangladesh by strengthening the regulatory frameworks, and institutional

capacity, systems and processes through sharing of best practices and green knowledge/technology

transfer.

Promoting decent jobs and responsible value chains

Decent work has been high on the agenda in Bangladesh since the Rana Plaza accident in 2013, in

which more than 1,100 workers died in a collapsed factory. This has triggered significant progress on

responsible business conduct in the formal garment sector. The work has been driven jointly by the

Bangladeshi government, the private sector, garment brands, civil society and development partners.

URU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 286: Orientering om den nye strategiske ramme for Bangladesh 2022-28

Danish research has shown a positive correlation between better working conditions and productivity

–

a business model that could be amplified. Considering that the majority of workers on the garment

is women, in particular in low-paid, low level positions, a special focus will be on also ensuring

decent gender-responsive work environments.

Continued progress on decent work is essential for many Danish companies relying on responsible

value chains to maintain and expand partnerships with Bangladeshi suppliers. Denmark has

knowledge to share, and is a well-established and credible partner to bring together relevant

institutions and authorities, the industries, and the unions in Bangladesh. This solid platform is

instrumental to push forward developments in this area and will enable progress on SDG 5 and 8

(gender equality and decent work and economic growth).

Climate adaptation, stability and conflict mitigation

Strategic objective 2: Reduce inequality and improve cohesion and resilience in fragile communities

Every year Bangladesh suffers economic losses as a result of extreme weather events that are

amplified by climate change. Addressing the severe adaptation needs is highly relevant when

working for a sustainable and just future for Bangladesh. Most at risk are already marginalized

groups, including women, children, and religious and ethnic minorities. Progress remains

geographically uneven with areas affected by fragility and resource constraints being of particular

concern. Pre-existing inequalities have been further exacerbated by Covid-19.

Denmark’s focus on this Strategic Objective is

in line with the principle of leaving no one behind,

and Denmark’s

international commitment to climate action. Furthermore, it should be seen as an

important building block under the Danish-Bangladeshi

‘Sustainable and Green Framework

Engagement’ through which Denmark will demonstrate its role as a responsible and trustworthy

partner in the broader climate agenda.

Two areas of interventions are directly supporting this objective.

Strengthening climate adaptation and resilience in vulnerable societies

Denmark will give priority to improve highly vulnerable communities’ resilience to climate change

to prevent climate-induced loss and damage and enhance their livelihood and social protection needs.

This will also reduce the pressure on natural resources, improve the broader environmental situation

and mitigate climate related displacement.

The Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT), the coastal zone, the Haor wetland areas,

and parts of the ‘dry

land’

are found to be climate vulnerable hotspots. These regions are at the same time crucial for the

country’s socio-economic

and ecological security as they provide vital natural resources. Denmark

will therefore target adaptation interventions in vulnerable communities in these areas.

The Danish engagement will revolve around capacity building of vulnerable communities, Local

Government Institutions and civil society organisations for planning and financing climate change

URU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 286: Orientering om den nye strategiske ramme for Bangladesh 2022-28

adaptation solutions in selected climate vulnerable areas, including micro- and small-watersheds, and

amongst smallholder farmers who are most vulnerable to impacts of the rising salinity in coastal and

estuarine areas in line with SDG 1 (no poverty), 6 (clean water), 10 (reduced inequalities) and 13

(climate action).

Recognizing that the climate crisis is gendered, with women being disproportionately affected by the

effects of a changing climate, Denmark will maintain a strong focus on women, girls and youth when

supporting local-led adaptation and climate resilience at community level to support SDG 5 (gender

equality).

Addressing the humanitarian situation and environmental degradation in Cox’s Bazar

In line with the international society, Denmark considers the Rohingya crisis a protection crisis.

Children and women, who make up the majority of the refugee population, have been

disproportionately affected by the crisis due to physical, psychological, and social vulnerabilities,

particularly due to disruptions in education.

The Cox’s Bazar district, which hosts the communities,

is exceptionally vulnerable to the impacts of

climate change, and preparedness and resilience to environmental risk and disaster situations is

therefore increasingly a concern. This comes on top of the high human-made pressure on natural

resources and environmental degradation, including deforestation, pollution and groundwater

depletion, which is a consequence of the influx of approximately a million Rohingyas in an already

overpopulated and poor district. Together, these factors are contributing to a negative

sentiment among Bangladeshis.

A near future political solution to the situation is unlikely. While continuing to advocate for a

political solution for the Rohingyas to return to Myanmar, the crisis will have to be treated as a

protracted crisis. Durable solutions for the refugees and the Bangladeshis living in Cox’s Bazar must

be considered through enhanced livelihoods taking into consideration the extreme pressure on natural

resources and the reduced ground water level.

Denmark will support both humanitarian and protection needs for a de-escalation of local conflicts

through targeted and essential development support, including access to drinking water and better

sanitation interventions in the host communities. These will contribute to SDG 5 (gender equality), 6

(clean water), 10 (reduced inequalities), and 13 (climate action).

Monitoring of

Denmark’s broad engagement in Bangladesh

The Embassy in Dhaka will, together with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Copenhagen, maintain

an overview of the broad range of engagements implemented by a broad range of actors, and through

the various available instruments supported by Denmark.

A monitoring framework (Annex 3) outlining the high level strategic indicators will provide the basis

for

the Embassy’s analysis

of progress, which will guide the bilateral political dialogue with the

Government of Bangladesh and other relevant partners including civil society and businesses who

have a stake in the implementation of the Strategic Framework. The monitoring of indicators will

furthermore lay the foundation for internal management dialogue related to scenarios and risks.

Review of the individual partnerships under the bilateral development programme will be specified

in accordance with the Danida Aid Management Guidelines. A Mid Term Review will be conducted

in the first half of 2025 to consider changes to design and approaches.

URU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 286: Orientering om den nye strategiske ramme for Bangladesh 2022-28

E. Bangladesh bilateral development programme 2023-2028

The previous chapter focused on the comprehensive approach to the strategic objectives of the

Strategic Framework for Bangladesh. This chapter specifically outlines the strategic focus areas of

one of the

Strategic Framework’s

instruments, namely the bilateral development programme. The

projects under the bilateral development programme are envisioned to be implemented in 2023-2028.

The reduced size and scope of the programme, in comparison to past country development

programmes, signals the gradual phasing out of Denmark’s traditional development

assistance, the

transition from a Danish

‘expanded partnership’, where all instruments are used to the anticipated

future ‘targeted partnership’,

which will increase focus on supporting areas of mutual interests.

DKK 300 Million has been budgeted for the bilateral development programme covering 2023-2028.

On top of this, funds

from the ‘climate envelope’ and an ongoing partnership

with IFAD (2019-

2026), focusing on agriculture and strengthened market linkages, will be treated as part of the

programme.

Priorities and strategic considerations

The bilateral development programme will consist of a limited number of projects, designed to

address the strategic objectives of the overall Bangladesh Strategic Framework. Limiting the number

of projects is a necessity to actively pursue synergies between the different instruments, including

trade instruments and policy dialogue.

The preliminary outcomes of the bilateral development programme have been determined with a

view to:

add value to the strategic objectives;

ensure thorough integration of gender and equality concerns;

ensure a focused and lean portfolio;

build on past achievements;

develop an adaptive design; and

enable solid exit strategies to consolidate

Denmark’s engagements in Bangladesh

for

sustainability.

The programme will mainly be implemented by existing long-term partners. The partners will be

selected based on their capacity to implement effectively with a view to a sound exit

strategy/sustainability, and/or potential scaling of impact by the Government or other development

partners

beyond Denmark’s engagement.

The development aspirations and priorities enshrined in Bangladesh’s 8th Five Year Plan will,

together with the Sustainable Development Goals, guide the programming. The United Nations

Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework for Bangladesh 2022-2026 will also be a guiding

document, which will be supported both through Denmark’s significant core support through the

broader UN system, and through relevant projects under the bilateral development programme.

URU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 286: Orientering om den nye strategiske ramme for Bangladesh 2022-28

The Embassy will on a regular basis assess synergies with other relevant instruments, including the

sector cooperation, global funds, and Strategic Partners/Danish NGOs to ensure an adaptive

approach in the implementation of the bilateral development programme.

Development projects in support of green, inclusive and sustainable production sectors

In support of the first Strategic Objective of the Bangladesh Strategic Framework, the bilateral

development programme will focus

on Denmark’s support towards a green and socially just

economic growth through the Food & Agriculture Sector, and through urban industrial sectors

(including, but not limited to, the garment industries). Through a limited number of projects, the

programme is expected to pave the way for enhanced engagement of Danish enterprises and

businesses that work for a fair and socially and environmentally sustainable trade agenda. With

considerations to the principle of ‘leaving no one behind’, the

sectors are selected because they can

be drivers of not only economic growth, but also improved local livelihoods in both rural and urban

settings.

Greening the industries

Pursuing a green and socially just transition, Denmark will continue its involvement in the greening

of significant polluting industries in Bangladesh. This will work to prevent a continuation of the

growth in CO2 emissions Bangladesh has seen over the past two decades,

and address Bangladesh’s

own pursuit of a green and trade-driven transformation of the industries. With the transition towards

a more trade related future partnership, this is an essential stepping stone, which responds to

Bangladesh’s continued access to the Danish and broader European markets

and its growing demand

for green and sustainable supply chains.

Globally, it is estimated that the fashion industry is responsible for 10% of global carbon emissions.

Barriers such as usage of old and poorly maintained machines, poor energy management are key

issues being addressed in the garment sector, as in several other industries in Bangladesh, if

Bangladesh is to meet its nationally determined contributions target of 15% GHG emission reduction

by 2030. Water is another concern, as the textile production is estimated to be responsible for about

20% of global clean water pollution from dyeing and finishing products globally, solutions for e.g.

waste water treatment is required for more environmentally friendly production methods.

Development through better working conditions

An equally important element of a sustainable supply chain

is ‘decent work’, which is essential for

Bangladesh to continue its access to the European market.

Denmark has built a longstanding and constructive relation with both the Danish and the Bangladeshi

business sector, social partners, and relevant authorities engaged in the decent work agenda primarily

within the garment sector. Partnerships which have been stimulated by the sector cooperation

between the Danish and Bangladeshi Labour Inspection Authorities over the past years.

Denmark will ensure that this strong platform is maintained, and that a project under the bilateral

development programme works to support efforts to heighten labour standards and strengthen labour

market governance, including social dialogue. Special consideration will be given to gender-

URU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 286: Orientering om den nye strategiske ramme for Bangladesh 2022-28

responsive interventions

As part of Denmark’s exit strategy, the

aim is to consolidate many years of

investment and partnerships, and to see a continued strong ownership of the Bangladeshi business

sector. The focus on consolidation of labour standards and decent working conditions is timely as it

directly links to Bangladesh’s roadmap for continued preferential

access to the European Market.

Furthermore, it responds to European brands’ expectations to see a more sustainable and socially just

garment supply chain.

The Danish engagement in the sector will be an integral part of the ‘Team Europe Initiative

Decent Work’ –

which brings EU and several member states together for a coherent approach to

skills and job creation for youth and women in particular, as well as work safety and protection, and

labour rights based on international standards.

The support will address the human rights agenda, and be an important step to transform the

economy towards a more inclusive and socially just economic growth. As such, it is also important

for the achievement of the second Strategic Objective in its aim to reduce inequality.

BOX 4

Expected Outcomes - Development projects in support of green, inclusive and sustainable production

sectors

Strengthened government and private sector participation in promoting green, resilient, and inclusive

development by setting climate and environmental standards that meet upcoming EU requirements

for import.

Strengthened enforcement of labour law, and increased motivation of companies with a view to

pursue a sustainable supply chain and decent working conditions.

Out of the

bilateral development programme’s DKK

300 Million, DKK 83 Million is envisioned allocated to

support Bangladesh’s sustainable, green and socially just growth.

Development projects targeting resilience of vulnerable groups affected by climate change

The second Strategic Objective of the Country Strategic Framework relates to reduced inequality and

improved cohesion and resilience in fragile communities. Focus will be on the most vulnerable

groups who are exposed to an increase in frequency or intensity of climate related events such as

cyclones, floods, droughts, and adverse impacts on livelihoods, agricultural production and

ecosystems. These undercut prospects for peace, stability, and sustainable development. The bilateral

development programme will address this objective in light of the climate vulnerability, poverty,

inequality and conflict nexus.

As earlier outlined, the projects will respond

to the Paris Agreement’s goals and Denmark’s

ambitions to devote focus to climate adaptation in the most climate vulnerable countries, with a focus

on the most marginalized people.

Strengthening adaptation and climate resilience in vulnerable communities

Being one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world, it is essential to support

Bangladesh’s resilience towards climate change. Denmark will therefore expand its contribution to

URU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 286: Orientering om den nye strategiske ramme for Bangladesh 2022-28

adaptation with a view to limit loss of livelihood opportunities for the most vulnerable and thereby

diminish climate-induced displacement. Investments have to be implemented in close collaboration

with

–

and engagement of

–

local communities and authorities, and where relevant be connected to

the global funds, which are operating in Bangladesh. Denmark will give special attention to the

nexus between climate change, gender and economic impoverishment with a focus on agriculture

and natural resource dependent communities in Bangladesh. These will include the Chittagong Hill

Tracts, where Denmark over many years has been engaged in local adaptation initiatives and in the

realization of the Peace Accord between ethnic minorities in the region and the government of

Bangladesh, but also climate vulnerable communities near the coastline and/or in the Haor wetland

region

or the ‘dry zone’.

Given the increased global focus on climate adaptation, Denmark will work through multilateral

avenues to ensure a strong collaboration with policy-makers and opinion leaders, particularly the

youth. This will be done with a view to promote scaling-up of relevant approaches, promotion of

community engagement to increase local ownership; and mainstreaming of nature-based solutions

into policymaking. The bilateral development programme will therefore ensure strong links to global

funds’ engagement in adaptation and disaster resilience,

and as such build a platform for continued

dialogue beyond the bilateral development programme.

Deescalating conflict potential in Cox’s Bazar

While Denmark supports the humanitarian response in the Rohingya camps through Strategic

Partnerships with Danish NGOs and through the significant core contributions to the UN system, the

bilateral development programme envisions to focus on the dire development needs in the host

communities of Cox’s Bazar region.

This region faces a severe risk of increased fragility, conflict

and local violence due to the high pressure on natural resources amplified by the climate changes and

the sudden presence of approximately one million refugees. Already prior to the Rohingya crisis,

Cox’s Bazar was amongst the districts in Bangladesh with most limited access to safe drinking water,

particularly in remote rural areas. Also the unstable situation in the bordering Rakhine region of

Myanmar is a concern in this part of Bangladesh, where deforestation and groundwater depletion has

amplified anti-refugee sentiments among Bangladeshis towards the Rohingyas, and where channels

of radicalization has increased over the past years. Through collaboration with local government

institutions and contributions to visible development investments in the water and sanitation sector,

the Danish bilateral development programme will contribute to reducing the longer term conflict

potential, while also facilitating access to basic services.

URU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 286: Orientering om den nye strategiske ramme for Bangladesh 2022-28

BOX 5

Expected Outcomes

–

Development projects targeting resilience of vulnerable groups affected by climate

change

Strengthened capacity of local and national stakeholders to plan and implement local-led climate

adaptation solutions.

Enhanced use of evidence-based information for improvement of climate change adaptation policies and

practices at national and local level.

Vulnerable host communities benefit from improved hygiene sensitization, and access to water and

sanitation for enhanced livelihood, resilience and diminished local conflicts.

Government agencies promote social inclusion and tolerance.

Out of the DKK 300 Million of the bilateral development programme DKK 180 Million is anticipated allocated to

support the fight against inequality, improved social cohesion in fragile communities through strengthened

adaptation and climate resilience.

Indicative budget for Bangladesh Bilateral Development Programme 2023-2028

Budget (DKK)

83 Million

180 Million

33 Million

4 Million

300 Million

Green, inclusive and sustainable production sectors

Resilience of vulnerable groups affected by climate change

Unallocated

Reviews, studies etc.

Total

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Annex 1. Map of Bangladesh

URU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 286: Orientering om den nye strategiske ramme for Bangladesh 2022-28

Annex 2. Key Figures for Bangladesh

INDICATOR

Key Economic Data

Surface area (square km, thousand)

Population

Gross Domestic Products, GDP (current US$)

Gross Domestic Products Growth (annual pct.)

GNI per capita (current US$)

Doing Business 2020 rank (out of 190 countries)

Sectoral share of GDP

Agriculture (%)

Industry (%)

Services (%)

Government expense (% of GDP)

Tax Revenue (% of GDP)

Net ODA received per capita (current US$)

Net official development assistance (% of GNI)

Current account balance (% of GDP)

Total debt service (% of GNI)

Inflation, consumer prices (annual change in pct.)

Key Social Data

Population growth (annual %)

Life expectancy at birth

Infant mortality rate (per 1.000 births)

Number of doctors (per 10,000)

Adult literacy rate (% above 15 years of age)

School enrolment, primary (% gross)

Military expenditure in (% of GDP)

Poverty headcount ratio at 1,90 US$ a day (% of population)

Income share held by the lowest 20% of population

Key environmental data

Forest area (% of land area)

Terrestrial and marine protected areas (% of total territorial

area)

CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita)

Key human rights data

Number of International Human Rights Instruments ratified

(out of 14)

Strength of legal rights index (0=weak to 12=strong)

Political rights score, 0 (Not free) - 40 (Free)

Civil liberties index, 7 (weak) - 1 (strong), 1972 - 2020

VALUE

147.57

164.69

million

323.06 billion

3.509

2030

168

13.02

31.13

55.86

9.4

8.77

27.493

1.418

0.335

1.141

5.691

1.003

72.59

24.3

6.37

74.7

119.556

1.302

14.3

8.6

14.47

4.889

0.513

YEAR

2020

2019

2016

2019

2020

2019

2020

2019

2020

2016

2020

2018

2020

2019

2020

SOURCE

BBS

WHO

UNESCO

OHCHR

The Global

Economy

The Global

Economy

BBS: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics

Atlas method.

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Annex 3. BSF Monitoring framework

IMPACT LEVEL

OVERALL VISION

Bangladesh is transitioning towards a sustainable, green, and socially just society through a comprehensive

commercial and political partnership with Denmark.

STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES

1. A strengthened green commercial and development 2. Reduce inequality and improve social cohesion and

collaboration for a sustainable economic transition

resilience in fragile communities

INDICATORS AND MEANS OF VERIFICATION (MOV)

1. Equality and growth inclusiveness

(Proportion of population living under national

poverty line; Income per capita among the bottom

40% population).

MOV: World Inequality Database; World Bank

Poverty and Equity Data Portal; Bangladesh Bureau of

Statistics (BBS) Household Income and Expenditure

Survey, SDGs: 1.2.1, 10.1.1.

2. Green commercial partnership and sustainable

development

(Danish-Bangladeshi business partnership on green

and responsible solutions to foster balanced growth

and sustainable development).

MoV: Global Green Economy Index; SDGs: 6, 7, 11,

12.

3. Sustainable and fair transition

(Addressing green and inclusive growth for advancing

sustainable economic growth through collaboration

and partnership)

MoV: World Bank Business Enabling Environment,

Asia Foundation Business Confidence Survey; SDG

17.11.1.

4. Decent and productive jobs creation

(Proportion of informal employment in total

employment, by sector and sex;

MoV: SDG 8.2, 8.3, World Bank Databank Jobs/ILO,

OECD.

5. Agricultural productivity and growth

inclusiveness

(Volume of production; Proportion of agricultural area

under productive and sustainable agriculture).

MoV: SDG 2.3.1, 2.4.1. Agriculture Sample Census;

Agriculture Production Survey, BBS; Bangladesh SDG

Progress Report.

6. Green growth

(Leadership and Climate Change; Efficiency Sectors,

Markets, Investments, Environment, Proportion of

population with primary reliance on clean fuels and

technology). MoV: Global Green Economy Index;

SDG 7.1.2, 12 and 13

1. Adaptation, mitigation and climate resilience

(Integrate climate change measures in to national policies,

strategies and planning).

MoV: Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate

Change Reports, SDG 13.2.1.

2. Socio economic vulnerability

(Addressing livelihoods and humanitarian needs and

climate-induced irregular migration).

MoV: Socio-economic Vulnerability Global Risk Index;

IOM; SDG: 10.7.2.

3. Inclusiveness, tolerance and democratic space

(Reduced conflict and violent extremism, )

MOV: Civicus Monitor, Global terrorism Index; SDG

16.1.2.

4. Gender equality

(Achieving gender equality and empowerment of women;

combating violence against women and girls).

MoV: SDG 5.2.1, 5.3.1 (Child marriage rate); SDG

Bangladesh Progress Report; Bureau of Statistics; Ministry

of Women and Children Affairs.

5. Youth

(Productive jobs created for young men and women,

Proportion of youth not in education, employment or

training).

MoV: World Bank Databank Jobs (ILO; SDGs 8.6.1.

6. Human Security

(Security of individuals and groups in economic,

environmental, and social terms)

MOV: The Human Security Index; SDG 1.1, 1.4, 13.1,

13.3, 16.1, 16.7, 16.b

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