TRU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 390: Henvendelse af 15/9-22 fra Rådet for Bæredygtig Trafik om en ny analyse: 'Nattog kan bidrage overraskende meget til at løse transportens europæiske klimabelastning'

Transportudvalget 2021-22
TRU Alm.del Bilag 390
Offentligt

The Global Warming

Reduction Potential

of Night Trains

Juri Maier,

Back-on-Track Germany e.V.

Version 1.1 | 15.09.2022

Back-on-Track.eu

European network to promote

cross-border night trains

TRU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 390: Henvendelse af 15/9-22 fra Rådet for Bæredygtig Trafik om en ny analyse: 'Nattog kan bidrage overraskende meget til at løse transportens europæiske klimabelastning'

Abstract

Night trains have the potential to reduce EU

greenhouse gas emissions by 3%.

According to opinion polls, 7 out of 10 Europeans would be

willing to take the night train instead of the plane if the

offer seemed reasonable to them. Back-on-Track, a

European network of night train initiatives, has used this

as a basis to examine air passenger numbers in the EU in

2019 to see which air connections could be replaced by

night train connections. Distances up to 1500 km as well

as distances up to 3000 km were considered with

different scenarios. Overall, up to 32 % of passengers

could switch to night trains if there were an attractive

offer. This would reduce emissions from air traffic by 26

%. In order to create such an offer, up to 2500 more night

trains would be required, as well as a considerable

improvement in the framework conditions, in particular a

reduction in track access charges.

of EU total

GHG emissions

could be reduced

by shifting to

night trains.

The GHG Reduction Potential of Night Trains | 09/2022

Back-on-Track.eu

European network to promote

cross-border night trains

Why this paper?

The potential of night trains has been recently examined in a couple of studies, but

•

the studies either examined a predefined target network

•

the potential passenger numbers were examined based on given constraints

•

if climate effects were calculated, non-CO

effects have been ignored

This paper is a follow-up to our 2021 study* on EU air passenger volumes that could be shifted to night

trains and examines

possible climate effects in a scenario assuming optimal conditions.

We assumed

•

a capable rail infrastructure on TEN-T routes prepared for 160 km/h max. speed

•

modern rolling stock with substantial improvements of privacy, security and comfort

•

an average occupancy rate of 80% like for other means of transport that require booking

•

a level playing field that allows for reasonable ticket prices

*Oui

au train de nuit (2021): Half of the air passengers will benefit from night trains, if Europe invests

The GHG Reduction Potential of Night Trains | 09/2022

Back-on-Track.eu

European network to promote

cross-border night trains

The current global warming potential of aviation

e incl. radiative forcing (RF) of non-CO

emissions (factor 3.0 using GWP* method)

Road

19,03%

EU greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 2019

Aviation (with RFF 3.0)

11,68%

12 % of the EU’s current global

warming contribution are from

aviation

far more than the 5%

when you just look at CO

emissions.

Aviation (just CO2)

5,13%

Ships

3,62%

Railways

0,12%

Other Transport

0,13%

Source:

EEA |

EU-28 data

Other Sectors

65,42%

The GHG Reduction Potential of Night Trains | 09/2022

Back-on-Track.eu

European network to promote

cross-border night trains

Only aviation emissions continue to grow

Development of EU GHG emissions 1990-2019

incl. projection for aviation (with all existing measures)

1.800.000,00

1.600.000,00

1.400.000,00

1.200.000,00

Transport

incl. int. Aviation

Energy supply

Industry

ktCO

Predicted to further

grow

3% per year

aviation has been

and remains the main cause

of the increase in transport

emissions.

1.000.000,00

800.000,00

600.000,00

400.000,00

200.000,00

0,00

Int. Aviation

Agriculture

Waste

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040

Source: EEA,

Data 90-19, Forecast 20-40

| EU-28 data | *incl

current RF (GWP*) of non-CO

emissions of aviation

The GHG Reduction Potential of Night Trains | 09/2022

Back-on-Track.eu

European network to promote

cross-border night trains

GHG emissions by means of transport

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

389

g CO

e* per person-km

Planes have

28 times

more greenhouse

effect than night trains, …

… and still

16 times more

with

100% sustainable fuels.

144

without

non-

217

132

Plane*

Plane(SAF)**

Car

Car (4 pers.)

Coach

Night Train

Base Source:

IEA

*incl

current RF (GWP*) of non-CO

emissions of aviation | **remaining well-to-tank emissions

and RF when using Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), source:

Sausen

The GHG Reduction Potential of Night Trains | 09/2022

Back-on-Track.eu

European network to promote

cross-border night trains

Night trains go further

Total traveling time

(h excl. sleep time)

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-6

-7

-8

High Speed

trains

compete

on distances

to 500 km

Tra

k m/

ai n

Nig

ht T

Nig

150

t Tr

igh

Plane

900 km/h

As sleep is not

perceived as travel

time

Night Trains

compete with a -8 h

head start

up to

Distance

(in km)

1500 km

at 75 to 125

km/h

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1.000

1.100

1.200

1.300

High Speed Night Trains

could

beat the plane up to 1900 km with

just 150 km/h average speed and

still attract passengers beyond that

(roughly 10% less per extra h). With

this speed they can go

up to 3000

and return in a day.

1.700

1.800

1.900

2.000

2.100

2.200

2.300

2.400

2.500

2.600

2.700

2.800

With

200 km/h

HS Night Trains

(like the

D901 Bejing-Shenzen)

could beat the plane at

distances up to 2700 km

2.900

3.000

3.100

3.200

3.300

3.400

3.500

3.600

3.700

3.800

3.900

4.000

100

1.400

1.500

1.600

The GHG Reduction Potential of Night Trains | 09/2022

Back-on-Track.eu

European network to promote

cross-border night trains

Which flights can be replaced?

•

We analysed Eurocontrol data for flights from EU-28 Airports*.

•

We excluded

•

connections to islands and places not connected by rail

connections separated by more than 3000 km road distance

connections which are served by day trains in less than 4 hours and

connections to other continents

connections with less than 100.000 passengers per year (as 140 passengers per

day and direction might be insufficient to fill a feeder train)

•

The reported passenger numbers per connection differ from the total number of passengers in the EU-28 due to under-reporting. Therefore,

the total numbers per connection were extrapolated to the total passenger numbers.

The GHG Reduction Potential of Night Trains | 09/2022

Back-on-Track.eu

European network to promote

cross-border night trains

Replaceable connections 500-1500 km:

According to our 2021 estimate, out of

yearly 1.1 B EU

aviation

passengers in

2019

•

362 M

passengers travel on

replaceable routes from 501 to

1500km distance.

Source:

Oui au train de nuit, 2021

The GHG Reduction Potential of Night Trains | 09/2022

Back-on-Track.eu

European network to promote

cross-border night trains

Replaceable connections 500-3000 km:

According to our 2021 estimate, out of

yearly 1.1 B EU

aviation

passengers in

2019

•

Another

213 M

passengers travel on

replaceable routes from 1500 to

3000km distance.

For

50% of 1.1 B EU aviation passengers

night trains could provide an alternative.

Source:

Oui au train de nuit, 2021

The GHG Reduction Potential of Night Trains | 09/2022

Back-on-Track.eu

European network to promote

cross-border night trains

How many would use the alternative?

69%

are

very or fairly

willing to use night trains.

of Europeans

25%

are

very

willing to use night trains.

of Europeans

The GHG Reduction Potential of Night Trains | 09/2022

So, if night trains were offered to 38% of all EU aviation and we can

assume

69% would use them

(as long as prices are reasonable and

travel times competitive as

in the 500-1500 km segment)

…

… and if some would use night trains even if travel times (excl. sleep)

exceed those of a plane trip so we may assume 11,4% less potential

per 1 extra hour (at 150 km/h avg. speed) so we may still assume

53% average preference in the 1500-3000 km segment

…

… then

32%

of all EU aviation passengers

would shift to night trains.

Source:

YouGov

Back-on-Track.eu

European network to promote

cross-border night trains