Transportudvalget 2021-22
TRU Alm.del Bilag 390
Offentligt
2623309_0001.png
The Global Warming
Reduction Potential
of Night Trains
Juri Maier,
Back-on-Track Germany e.V.
Version 1.1 | 15.09.2022
Back-on-Track.eu
European network to promote
cross-border night trains
TRU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 390: Henvendelse af 15/9-22 fra Rådet for Bæredygtig Trafik om en ny analyse: 'Nattog kan bidrage overraskende meget til at løse transportens europæiske klimabelastning'
2623309_0002.png
Abstract
Night trains have the potential to reduce EU
greenhouse gas emissions by 3%.
According to opinion polls, 7 out of 10 Europeans would be
willing to take the night train instead of the plane if the
offer seemed reasonable to them. Back-on-Track, a
European network of night train initiatives, has used this
as a basis to examine air passenger numbers in the EU in
2019 to see which air connections could be replaced by
night train connections. Distances up to 1500 km as well
as distances up to 3000 km were considered with
different scenarios. Overall, up to 32 % of passengers
could switch to night trains if there were an attractive
offer. This would reduce emissions from air traffic by 26
%. In order to create such an offer, up to 2500 more night
trains would be required, as well as a considerable
improvement in the framework conditions, in particular a
reduction in track access charges.
3%
of EU total
GHG emissions
could be reduced
by shifting to
night trains.
2
The GHG Reduction Potential of Night Trains | 09/2022
Back-on-Track.eu
European network to promote
cross-border night trains
TRU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 390: Henvendelse af 15/9-22 fra Rådet for Bæredygtig Trafik om en ny analyse: 'Nattog kan bidrage overraskende meget til at løse transportens europæiske klimabelastning'
2623309_0003.png
Why this paper?
The potential of night trains has been recently examined in a couple of studies, but
the studies either examined a predefined target network
the potential passenger numbers were examined based on given constraints
if climate effects were calculated, non-CO
2
effects have been ignored
This paper is a follow-up to our 2021 study* on EU air passenger volumes that could be shifted to night
trains and examines
possible climate effects in a scenario assuming optimal conditions.
We assumed
a capable rail infrastructure on TEN-T routes prepared for 160 km/h max. speed
modern rolling stock with substantial improvements of privacy, security and comfort
an average occupancy rate of 80% like for other means of transport that require booking
a level playing field that allows for reasonable ticket prices
*Oui
au train de nuit (2021): Half of the air passengers will benefit from night trains, if Europe invests
3
The GHG Reduction Potential of Night Trains | 09/2022
Back-on-Track.eu
European network to promote
cross-border night trains
TRU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 390: Henvendelse af 15/9-22 fra Rådet for Bæredygtig Trafik om en ny analyse: 'Nattog kan bidrage overraskende meget til at løse transportens europæiske klimabelastning'
2623309_0004.png
The current global warming potential of aviation
CO
2
e incl. radiative forcing (RF) of non-CO
2
emissions (factor 3.0 using GWP* method)
Road
19,03%
EU greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 2019
Aviation (with RFF 3.0)
11,68%
12 % of the EU’s current global
warming contribution are from
aviation
-
far more than the 5%
when you just look at CO
2
emissions.
Aviation (just CO2)
5,13%
Ships
3,62%
Railways
0,12%
Other Transport
0,13%
Source:
EEA |
EU-28 data
Other Sectors
65,42%
4
The GHG Reduction Potential of Night Trains | 09/2022
Back-on-Track.eu
European network to promote
cross-border night trains
TRU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 390: Henvendelse af 15/9-22 fra Rådet for Bæredygtig Trafik om en ny analyse: 'Nattog kan bidrage overraskende meget til at løse transportens europæiske klimabelastning'
2623309_0005.png
Only aviation emissions continue to grow
Development of EU GHG emissions 1990-2019
incl. projection for aviation (with all existing measures)
1.800.000,00
1.600.000,00
1.400.000,00
1.200.000,00
Transport
incl. int. Aviation
Energy supply
Industry
ktCO
2
e*
Predicted to further
grow
3% per year
aviation has been
and remains the main cause
of the increase in transport
emissions.
1.000.000,00
800.000,00
600.000,00
400.000,00
200.000,00
0,00
Int. Aviation
Agriculture
Waste
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
Source: EEA,
Data 90-19, Forecast 20-40
| EU-28 data | *incl
current RF (GWP*) of non-CO
2
emissions of aviation
5
The GHG Reduction Potential of Night Trains | 09/2022
Back-on-Track.eu
European network to promote
cross-border night trains
TRU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 390: Henvendelse af 15/9-22 fra Rådet for Bæredygtig Trafik om en ny analyse: 'Nattog kan bidrage overraskende meget til at løse transportens europæiske klimabelastning'
2623309_0006.png
GHG emissions by means of transport
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
389
g CO
2
e* per person-km
Planes have
28 times
more greenhouse
effect than night trains, …
… and still
16 times more
with
100% sustainable fuels.
144
without
non-
CO
2
RF
217
132
50
22
Plane*
Plane(SAF)**
Car
Car (4 pers.)
Coach
14
Night Train
Base Source:
IEA
|
*incl
current RF (GWP*) of non-CO
2
emissions of aviation | **remaining well-to-tank emissions
and RF when using Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), source:
Sausen
6
The GHG Reduction Potential of Night Trains | 09/2022
Back-on-Track.eu
European network to promote
cross-border night trains
TRU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 390: Henvendelse af 15/9-22 fra Rådet for Bæredygtig Trafik om en ny analyse: 'Nattog kan bidrage overraskende meget til at løse transportens europæiske klimabelastning'
2623309_0007.png
Night trains go further
Total traveling time
(h excl. sleep time)
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
High Speed
trains
compete
on distances
up
to 500 km
h
ig
N
a
Tr
t
in
75
km
/h
in
Tra
HS
17
h
k m/
5
1
ai n
r
tT
25
/
km
h
h
Nig
HS
ra
ht T
Nig
k
150
in
h
m/
ai
t Tr
igh
SN
H
km
00
n
2
/h
Plane
900 km/h
As sleep is not
perceived as travel
time
Night Trains
compete with a -8 h
head start
up to
Distance
(in km)
1500 km
at 75 to 125
km/h
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1.000
1.100
1.200
1.300
High Speed Night Trains
could
beat the plane up to 1900 km with
just 150 km/h average speed and
still attract passengers beyond that
(roughly 10% less per extra h). With
this speed they can go
up to 3000
km
and return in a day.
1.700
1.800
1.900
2.000
2.100
2.200
2.300
2.400
2.500
2.600
2.700
2.800
With
200 km/h
HS Night Trains
(like the
D901 Bejing-Shenzen)
could beat the plane at
distances up to 2700 km
2.900
3.000
3.100
3.200
3.300
3.400
3.500
3.600
3.700
3.800
3.900
4.000
100
1.400
1.500
1.600
7
The GHG Reduction Potential of Night Trains | 09/2022
Back-on-Track.eu
European network to promote
cross-border night trains
TRU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 390: Henvendelse af 15/9-22 fra Rådet for Bæredygtig Trafik om en ny analyse: 'Nattog kan bidrage overraskende meget til at løse transportens europæiske klimabelastning'
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Which flights can be replaced?
We analysed Eurocontrol data for flights from EU-28 Airports*.
We excluded
connections to islands and places not connected by rail
connections separated by more than 3000 km road distance
connections which are served by day trains in less than 4 hours and
connections to other continents
connections with less than 100.000 passengers per year (as 140 passengers per
day and direction might be insufficient to fill a feeder train)
The reported passenger numbers per connection differ from the total number of passengers in the EU-28 due to under-reporting. Therefore,
the total numbers per connection were extrapolated to the total passenger numbers.
8
The GHG Reduction Potential of Night Trains | 09/2022
Back-on-Track.eu
European network to promote
cross-border night trains
TRU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 390: Henvendelse af 15/9-22 fra Rådet for Bæredygtig Trafik om en ny analyse: 'Nattog kan bidrage overraskende meget til at løse transportens europæiske klimabelastning'
2623309_0009.png
Replaceable connections 500-1500 km:
According to our 2021 estimate, out of
yearly 1.1 B EU
aviation
passengers in
2019
362 M
passengers travel on
replaceable routes from 501 to
1500km distance.
Source:
Oui au train de nuit, 2021
9
The GHG Reduction Potential of Night Trains | 09/2022
Back-on-Track.eu
European network to promote
cross-border night trains
TRU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 390: Henvendelse af 15/9-22 fra Rådet for Bæredygtig Trafik om en ny analyse: 'Nattog kan bidrage overraskende meget til at løse transportens europæiske klimabelastning'
2623309_0010.png
Replaceable connections 500-3000 km:
According to our 2021 estimate, out of
yearly 1.1 B EU
aviation
passengers in
2019
Another
213 M
passengers travel on
replaceable routes from 1500 to
3000km distance.
For
50% of 1.1 B EU aviation passengers
night trains could provide an alternative.
Source:
Oui au train de nuit, 2021
10
The GHG Reduction Potential of Night Trains | 09/2022
Back-on-Track.eu
European network to promote
cross-border night trains
TRU, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 390: Henvendelse af 15/9-22 fra Rådet for Bæredygtig Trafik om en ny analyse: 'Nattog kan bidrage overraskende meget til at løse transportens europæiske klimabelastning'
2623309_0011.png
How many would use the alternative?
69%
are
very or fairly
willing to use night trains.
of Europeans
25%
are
very
willing to use night trains.
of Europeans
11
The GHG Reduction Potential of Night Trains | 09/2022
So, if night trains were offered to 38% of all EU aviation and we can
assume
69% would use them
(as long as prices are reasonable and
travel times competitive as
in the 500-1500 km segment)
… and if some would use night trains even if travel times (excl. sleep)
exceed those of a plane trip so we may assume 11,4% less potential
per 1 extra hour (at 150 km/h avg. speed) so we may still assume
53% average preference in the 1500-3000 km segment
… then
32%
of all EU aviation passengers
would shift to night trains.
Source:
YouGov
Back-on-Track.eu
European network to promote
cross-border night trains