KEF, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 44: Henvendelse af 26/10-21 fra Wind Denmark om vindindustriens anbefalinger til morgendagens forskning, udvikling, test og demonstration (FUTD) - Rapporten 'Annual Research and Innovation Agenda 2021'

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WIND

ANNUAL

RESEARCH

AND INNOVATION

AGENDA

2021

A N N U A L R E S E A R C H A N D I N N O VAT I O N A G E N D A 2 0 2 1

KEF, Alm.del - 2021-22 - Bilag 44: Henvendelse af 26/10-21 fra Wind Denmark om vindindustriens anbefalinger til morgendagens forskning, udvikling, test og demonstration (FUTD) - Rapporten 'Annual Research and Innovation Agenda 2021'

WIND POWER 2021

ANNUAL RESE ARCH

AND INNOVATION AGENDA

Oct 2021

Publisher:

Megavind

Authors:

Mattias Andersson

and Peter Hjuler Jensen, DTU

Cover photo:

Kim Høltermand

Photos:

Bax Lindhardt, Troels Friis Pedersen,

Iben Julie Schmidt, Witold Skrzypiński,

Tristan Stedman, Valur Vestmann,

Nordic Wind Consultants

Graphic Designer:

Lisbeth Neigaard, vinkdesign.dk

Download the electronic version:

www.megavind.winddenmark.dk/publications

ISBN 978-87-970265-7-1

EAN 978879702657

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CONTENTS

A NEW MEGAVIND

E XECUTIVE SUMMARY

MEGATRENDS

A PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP

FOR THE GREEN TR ANSITION

The Danish public-private partnership in wind energy

The early phase

Public ownership and the license to operate

Framework conditions and R&D

Entrepreneurship and industry

A renewed partnership for wind powered energy systems

2 0

R&D OPPORTUNITIES & CHALLENGES

Upscaling

System integration and sector coupling

2 8

Sustainability

Delivering gigawatts of wind power to the green transition

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A NEW

MEGAVIND

Per Hessellund Lauritsen, Chairman Megavind

IN 2020, the Megavind Executive Committee

agreed on organisational changes and a revised

mission for Megavind. The new Megavind will

incorporate a global outlook, extending its scope

to R&D for wind energy systems including sector

coupling, while creating a more agile organisation

with permanent strategic sub-committees.

This year’s Annual Research & Innovation Agenda

reflects on this new role for Megavind.

When we published the first Annual Research &

Innovation Agenda in 2017, we outlined four meg-

atrends that characterised wind energy R&I at that

time. This year, we revisit those megatrends.

Megavind was born of the public-private part-

nership unique to Danish wind energy and this

partnership has never been more vital than at the

present moment. The potential for global coop-

eration and business opportunities is rivaled by a

fierce international competition to attract com-

panies, competences and test infrastructures for

large components and wind turbines. How can we

renew our partnership in Denmark to respond to

the changing conditions? In this annual agenda we

review the history of the partnership. What were

its constituent parts and what set it apart from the

development of wind energy in other countries?

However, we are not only glancing backwards.

Together, the Megavind partners have identified

core elements that must be maintained, renewed

or reinvigorated to prepare the partnership for the

coming decades.

By navigating the megatrends, the new Megavind

will continue to play a key role in Danish and inter-

national wind energy research and innovation. This

year’s annual agenda includes a set of updated

recommendations for research and innovation that

reflect these new opportunities and challenges.

When the European Commission presented its

strategy for Offshore Renewable Energy in Novem-

ber 2020, the opening lines reflected on the crea-

tion of the first offshore wind farm, Danish Vindeby,

and when Innovation Fund Denmark launched

its 2020 strategy announcing the InnoMissions,

the success of Danish public-private partnership

in wind energy delivery was highlighted as an

example worth emulating. Adapting, extending

and strengthening our partnership as the green

transition goes truly global is the next step for

Megavind.

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EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

The Annual agenda 2021 focuses on megatrends within wind

power, the development and renewal of the Danish public-private

partnership for wind energy systems and the coming demands for

research and innovation enabling Denmark maintain its global lead in

wind power while working with citizens and stakeholders to ensure

wind power that is both socially and environmentally sustainable.

MEGATRENDS

In revising the megatrends identified in the 2017

annual agenda, Megavind identifies five megatrends

shaping the evolvement of wind energy in the coming

years.

1. Energy Systems Transformation towards zero

carbon economy

is influencing all aspects of soci-

ety. From regulations to finance, consumer behav-

ior to innovation investments, sector coupling and

political frameworks.

2. Industrialisation 2030

through digitalisation,

modularised manufacturing and innovations in the

supply chain will drive competitiveness across the

value chain from first design to decommissioning.

3. Globalisation of markets and companies.

Com-

panies, including subcontractors, must adapt busi-

ness models to scale, to cater for a global supply

chain and adapt to demands for local content.

4. Financially responsible markets.

Financial

markets are altering the risk profile of wind power,

and the potential for new business models raises

issues about market design and regulations to

balance risk and benefits for both investors and

consumers.

5. Social and environmental sustainability

is a key

megatrend for the wind energy and renewable

technologies industries more generally. Recycling

of turbine blades, sustainably circular wind farms

and a new dialogue around the co-existence of

renewable energy sources with ecosystems and

communities are called for.

A revitalised public-private part-

nership for wind energy systems

We need a revitalised and strength-

ened public-private collaboration

for the green transition. The current

public-private partnership in the wind

energy sector in Denmark has played

a major role in the success of wind

energy globally. To understand the

trajectory of this development, how it

should continue and where we need to

plot a new course, a summarising of its

constituent parts will be beneficial.

The renewed partnership should

maintain a shared mission, building on

a strong global position and outlook.

Public R&D support, including suitable

framework conditions for test facilities

and infrastructures is vital. This will re-

quire political vision and a willingness

to take risks to build on and extend

the holistic policy approach that has

characterised Denmark over the past

40 years.

A renewed engagement with the

public and vice versa will establish

a foundation for the future of wind

energy in Denmark. Dialogue based on

scientific evidence and a shared am-

bition to save the natural environment

and hinder climate change is called for.

Competences at all levels of exper-

tise are the lifeblood of the industry.

Colleges and universities should work

with stakeholders to maintain high

levels of education as well as encour-

aging entrepreneurship and nurturing

talent that can establish and scale new

wind energy companies in Denmark.

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DIALOGUE BASED ON

SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE

AND A SHARED AMBI

TION TO SAVE THE

NATURAL ENVIRO N

MENT AND HINDER

CLIMATE CHANGE IS

CALLED FOR

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RESEARCH AND INNOVATION

CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

How do the megatrends and mission statements translate into

future research and innovation?

Wind power and other renewables have been given a mandate to

deliver green power underpinning an electrified energy system.

That trust carries obligations and a set of concrete challenges

that need to be addressed and overcome.

Four areas of research and innovation are outlined below.

Delivering gigawatts of wind power

to the green transition

WIND POWER and other renewables are

recognised as the future mainstay of elec-

tricity generation in Europe. The delivery of

gigawatts of wind power to fuel the green

transition is now a necessity.

1. Reduction of LCOE through turbine

and wind farm R&I.

2. Solutions for flexible, resilient and

secure energy infrastructure.

3. Improving security of supply through

innovative new materials and alleviat-

ing shortages of current materials.

4. Financial and market instruments

to improve the value of wind energy

including better market design and

incentives for investment in wind and

alternative energy systems.

Upscaling and industrialisation

enabling cost reductions

RESEARCH AND INNOVATION to enable

and balance upscaling as well as industri-

alisation across the value chain. This will

require:

1. Models and simulation tools for mega

turbines, to alleviate the uncertainty

in design parameters.

2. Test methods and facilities capable

of assessing larger components or

enabling smart testing and increas-

ing the use of digital twins to reduce

physical testing requirements.

3. Design for the manufacturing and

operation of extremely large compo-

nents.

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Sector coupling to increase value

of wind for companies and society

THE ELECTRIFICATION of society through

sector coupling is altering the technology

and market dynamics that wind power

operates in. This requires technology solu-

tions and infrastructure based on market

dynamics and energy systems.

1. P2X systems and their dynamic in-

teraction with wind energy units with

variable energy production.

2. Load and production pattern opti-

misation, planning and scheduling

with combined wind energy and P2X

systems.

3. R&I in optimal wind power plant/tur-

bine configuration based on future

energy system market systems.

4. Efficient, grid-supporting and reliable

short- and long-duration energy stor-

age solutions.

5. Methods to assess and plan infra-

structural impact.

Sustainability for people

and the natural environment

CIRCULARITY of wind farms and the con-

struction of a value chain for recycling and

reusing material goes hand in hand with

engagement with local communities

1. R&I of material substitution in wind

turbines, to increase recycled

content, to minimise environmental

impacts and to enable recycling of

waste streams.

2. R&I to create a market for recycling

manufacturing waste and end-of-use

wind turbines.

3. R&I to extend the operational lifetime

of wind turbines.

4. Development of wind farms in harmo-

ny with surrounding ecosystems and

communities.

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MEGATRENDS

The energy system and its role in society has changed significantly

over the past five years, since Megavind published its first annual

agenda that outlined four megatrends in wind energy.

2020 MARKED A watershed in the development of

the green transition. Global investments in renew-

able energy reached 0,5 trillion dollars; NextEra

overtook Exxon Mobile as the most valuable energy

company in the US while China, India and many oth-

er countries set dates for reaching net-zero carbon

emission by 2050-60. Financially, the challenge now

is to find sufficient green energy projects to match

the financial resources eager to bank on renewable

technologies and services. And the climate needs

these investments. According to the Global Wind

Energy Council, we must install 180GW wind power

globally every year to meet climate targets

The financial market’s appetite for wind and solar

energy is a consequence of the continued cost

reductions in these fields, as well as the increased

trust in both technologies and developers, which

in turn leads to lower costs of new project financ-

ing. These cost reductions must endure, and the

industry must pursue them through a combination

of upscaling and technology advancements as well

as industrialisation. Lower margins and the require-

ments to supply higher volumes exerts pressure

on the supply chain. The number of mergers and

acquisitions are increasing. At the same time,

climate technology venture capital has grown to be

a multi-billion-dollar business that creates a new

financial ecosystem for start-up entrepreneurs to

grow their ideas into businesses.

The financial markets and governments have

confidence in wind energy as a primary driver for

the electrification of society. That trust comes with

obligations and industry needs to deliver. But wind

power and other renewable technologies cannot

deliver a decarbonised system alone. The energy

system and society must respond and react as well.

In regions with a high share of wind and solar power,

operators are forced to accelerate plans to mod-

ernise or adapt the electrical grid to control chang-

ing load patterns and encourage flexible consump-

tion. Managing flexibility and market signals drives

demand for sector coupling solutions while policy

makers must adapt regulations and market design.

More renewables result in a larger environmental

footprint which increase the potential for clashes

between technology, the environment and people.

The developments outlined here called for a reflec-

tion on the megatrends that we defined in 2017.

Digitalisation, for example, has become fully incor-

porated in the industrialisation of wind energy, while

globalisation is more specifically linked to market

development and innovation requirements across

the value chain. Subsidy-free wind power was

highlighted as a megatrend in 2017 following the

zero-subsidy bids for offshore wind power that took

the entire industry and energy community by sur-

prise. Five years on, this is now seen as one aspect

of a broader issue regarding how we shape financial-

ly responsible markets. Energy system integration is

seen in the wider perspective of the energy system

transformation and the move from cost to value. And

finally, sustainability appears as a new megatrend.

Based on these factors, Megavind has identified

five megatrends that influence wind energy and its

interaction with the energy system and society. The

new megatrends reflect the growing importance of

wind power in the green transition and the wealth of

business opportunities and societal challenges that

the system transformation provides and poses into

the future.

2017 MEGATRENDS:

1. Maturation, industrialisation

and globalisation

2. Subsidy-free wind power and

technology neutral tenders

3. Digitalisation

4. Energy Systems Integration

1. https://gwec.net/global-wind-power-growth-must-triple-over-next-decade-to-achieve-net-zero/

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THE FINANCIAL

MARKETS AND

GOVERNMENTS

HAVE CONFIDENCE

IN WIND ENERGY AS A

PRIMARY DRIVER FOR

THE ELECTRIFICATION

OF SOCIETY

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MEGATRENDS

2021

Megavind has identified five megatrends that influence wind power

and its interaction with the energy system and society.

Energy systems transformation

towards zero-carbon economy

The energy system transformation

towards zero-carbon economies

influences all aspects of socie-

ty. From regulations to finance,

consumer behavior to innovation

investments, sector coupling

and political frameworks. These

developments are perhaps best

summarised in the shift from LCOE

driven growth to energy system

development based on the tripar-

tite elements of cost reduction,

value creation and sustainability.

This trend is reflected in compa-

nies expanding their scope beyond

delivering turbines or wind farms to

providing emission-neutral renewa-

ble energy.

Industrialisation 2030

Digitalisation, modularised man-

ufacturing and innovations in the

supply chain will drive competitive-

ness across the value chain from

initial design to decommissioning.

Digital twins can reduce the need

for physical testing in the design

phase and will result in improved

real-time dates for operation and

management of assets; modular-

ised manufacturing and assembly

can allieviate barriers to turbine

upscaling, reducing the need for

ever-increasing logistical equip-

ment. Combined with standardised

procedures and components, the

next phase of industrialisation will

allow the industry to both scale and

reduce the cost of wind energy.

Globalisation

180GW annually installed capacity

wind power will be necessary to

meet climate targets. Countries

around the globe are banking on

wind energy not only to deliver

cheap and green electricity, but

simultaneously generate jobs and

growth. A noticeable characteristic

of wind energy is that it creates

both blue and white collar jobs

locally, and many countries are

inserting requirements into con-

tracts for

local content

including

local production, supply chain and

competence building to help boost

their economies. Danish-based

companies will need to adapt and

evolve to respond to these new de-

mands: how do you innovate novel

solutions enabling the scaling up of

the value chain in new geographical

areas? How do you tailor technolo-

gies and services for new markets?

Many companies will have to build

new business models that include

collaboration with companies in

the new markets to deliver local

content.

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Financially responsible

markets

Wind energy operating in financial

markets will become the norm in

the coming decade. The change in

the risk profile of wind power and

the potential for new business mod-

els raises issues regarding market

design and regulations to balance

risk and benefits for both investors

and consumers. Companies are

addressing new requirements and

market signals to deliver reliable

energy sources by pivoting towards

hybrid and energy management

solutions. How will this change the

role of the citizens and consumers?

To achieve a just and fair transition,

regulators will play a critical role

in accelerating market framework

development to unlock the massive

interest from investors while bal-

ancing an equitable distribution of

advantages and disadvantages for

consumers and citizens alike.

Social and environmental

sustainability

In 2017, sustainability was not

among the megatrends identified

by Megavind. Five years later, the

exclusion of sustainability as a key

megatrend for the wind energy sec-

tor is unthinkable, and for renewable

technologies in general. At the top

of the agenda is the recycling of

turbine blades, but improved solu-

tions towards sustainably circular

wind farms is the larger target and

the wind energy industry is com-

mitted to ambitious sustainability

goals. At the same time, a new di-

alogue around the co-existence of

renewable energy sources with the

natural environment and communi-

ties is called for. Onshore wind pow-

er deployment has almost come to

a standstill in some countries due

to local opposition or concerns

about the impact on ecosystems

and wildlife. Offshore tenders are

progressing, but wind power is

competing with fisheries, maritime

transport and other stakeholders

for space at sea.

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A PUBLIC-PRIVATE

PARTNERSHIP FOR

THE GREEN TRANSITION

This new age of the green transition calls for a range of technologies to be matured and

scaled up to enable a 100% decarbonised energy system by 2050. The scale, pace and

complexity of the actions required are breathtaking, but also offer immense opportunities

for all societal stakeholders. To seize the opportunities, public and private stakeholders will

have to work together if we are to achieve a decarbonised energy system in a rapid, equita-

ble, and cost-efficient manner.

A renewed public-private

partnership for the green transition

Denmark needs a renewed and strengthened

public-private collaboration for the green transition

and Danish wind energy offers important lessons

on its implementation. Building on the foundation

the Danish model for societal organisation,

the

public-private partnership that constitutes the wind

energy sector in Denmark has played a major role

in the success of wind energy globally. As we move

towards a renewed partnership that expands into

sector coupling and increases its global outlook, it

is therefore worthwhile summarising the constitu-

ent parts that made the partnership a success in

the past: to understand the trajectory that devel-

oped, in which direction it should continue and

where it is necessary to plot a new course to avoid

becoming trapped in outdated organisational forms

and processes.

the organisational foundations for these missions.

It is important to understand how different stake-

holders contribute to these partnerships and work

together to deliver on our shared ambition to curb

climate change.

A partnership of partnerships

The green mission of this decade – an electrified

energy system powered by renewables - requires

a partnership of partnerships. The partnerships

developed in technology silos such as wind power,

solar and hydrogen energy will collaborate with

other sectors to create an integrated energy

system. Megavind and its members will be actively

involved in these new partnerships and the wind

energy sector can contribute with its technological

know-how and experience in maintaining strong

partnerships for decades.

Partnership for an age of missions

In 2020, the Danish parliament called for Innovation

Fund Denmark to set up Innovation Missions (Inn-

oMissions). The success of wind energy was high-

lighted as an example to emulate. The InnoMissions

reflect a new global trend: from Bill Gates’ Mission

Innovation to the Mission concept for the new EU

Framework Programme for Research and Innova-

tion, to national and even local levels of initiative.

Tackling grand challenges is no longer enough; the

world is on a mission to create an energy system to

help curb global warming and we have 30 years to

deliver on that promise. Partnerships will be one of

TO SEIZE THE OPPORTUNI-

TIES, PUBLIC AND PRIVATE

STAKEHOLDERS WILL HAVE

TO WORK TOGETHER IF WE

WANT TO ACHIEVE A DECAR-

BONISED ENERGY SYSTEM

IN A RAPID, EQUITABLE, AND

COST-EFFICIENT MANNER.

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The Danish public-private partnership

in wind energy - The early phase

IN THE WAKE of the 1973 oil crisis, interest in wind

power increased among citizens, politicians, industry

and the research community. Denmark was not the

only country to see public, industrial and political in-

vestments in wind power during the 1970’s and on-

ward. The US, Germany, Holland, Belgium, the UK and

others were all active in the field. Yet Denmark was

uniquely successful, especially during the 1980’s

and 1990’s, where Danish turbine manufactures had

cornered up to 80-90% of the global market.

The foundations for this success have been widely

documented. They rest on a combination of social

attitudes, institutions, and the organisation of Dan-

ish society; sometimes referred to as ‘the Danish

model’. Public and private partners have a tradition

of working together to reach solutions that are

both pragmatic and innovative while allowing soci-

ety to grow and companies to prosper. This has not

been altogether frictionless over the past 40 years,

but the holistic approach has been key to sustain-

ing the development.

The stakeholders and their contribution to Danish

wind energy can be summarised in the following

figure:

2. This chapter draws on work from Peter Karnøe, Flemming Petersen and Henrik Bach Mortensen

Politicians

and

regulators

Market

mechanisms

R&D

support

Public ownership

and “license to

operate”

Grassroot

movements

THE

DANISH

MODEL

Approval system

and certification;

knowledge creation

Test & research

centers

Technology

and

services

Industry

and

utilities

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Public ownership and

the license to operate

SPURRED ON BY the energy crisis of 1973 and the

debate over which energy sources should power

Danish society in the future (nuclear, coal, gas or re-

newables) a popular movement consisting of grass-

root organisations, academics and engineers and

individual entrepreneurs helped pave the way for

Danish wind energy. The movement contributed in

four ways to the development of Danish wind pow-

er. Firstly, they promoted wind power in opposition

to the political establishment and the Danish utility

providers who had placed their bets on coal and

nuclear supply. Through a broad range of activities,

the movement created a license to operate power

sources independently that would eventually lead to

the introduction of the Danish Energy Plan of 1976.

Secondly, the movement consisted of people who

invested in wind turbines privately, thus enabling

the early Danish wind power pioneers to construct

and sell their first turbines. Thirdly, they generated

and disseminated knowledge about wind power

and how to construct and operate wind turbines.

Finally, they exerted pressure on turbine manufac-

tures to improve the quality of turbines to improve

safety and yield. The cooperatives that formed the

backbone of the popular movement would go on to

become the primary investor in Danish wind power.

At the height of the Danish cooperative wind energy

movement in the 1980’s, cooperatives in Denmark

owned a major part of Danish wind turbines.

1. Market support mechanisms

Since the late 1970’s and up to 2001,

Denmark had a continuous set of market

support mechanisms in place that created

a stable market for wind energy, both for

industry and investors. The absence of

stop-go market development observable

in other countries in the 1980’s and 1990’s

allowed Danish companies to survive the

early days of busts and booms synony-

mous with those periods. This was the re-

sult of an ongoing close dialogue between

the public and the private sector. Since

2001, shifting governments have chal-

lenged the aspect of state market support,

however the domestic market remains key

to the Danish wind energy sector.

The success of the market support mecha-

nisms is closely linked to the introduction of

a Danish approval and certification system

for wind turbines in 1979. The system set

a minimum standard for market quality of

new turbines that pushed manufacturers to

build more reliable machines. The reliability

of Danish turbines led to their success in

conquering a significant share of the largest

export markets in California and Germany.

The Danish standardisation system formed

the basis for international standards for

wind turbines. This gave Danish companies

a head start when international standards

were introduced since they already com-

plied with Danish standards. In addition,

because Risø test center was tasked

with administering the approval system,

researchers and industry had frequent in-

teractions. This resulted in research organ-

isations gaining first-hand knowledge and

interest in the challenges facing industry

while industry was exposed to the re-

search-based know-how that were largely

absent in production in the early days. This

synergy between research organisations

and industry was a distinctively Danish fea-

ture during the first decades compared to

other countries where academic research

remained far more insular from industry

interaction.

2. Approval system and certification

Framework conditions and R&D

In a statement to the Danish Parliament in 1976

about the new energy law, then Minister of Energy

Erling Jensen stated that renewables such as wind

power and solar would require extensive research

and development over the coming decades to

contribute meaningfully to the Danish energy mix

by the turn of the century (i.e. 2000). The political

willingness to continuously create legislation and

invest the necessary resources into renewables

cannot be underestimated, when considering the

success of Danish wind energy. In the decades

that followed the 1976 energy law, the necessary

elements were put in place to translate these ambi-

tions into reality. Compared to other countries such

as Germany, the Netherlands and the US that fo-

cused heavily on R&I funding, the Danish approach

was, and is, characterised by a combined focus on

four key elements:

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A POPULAR MOVEMENT

CONSISTING OF GRASSROOT

ORGANISATIONS, ACADEMICS

AND ENGINEERS AND INDI-

VIDUAL ENTREPRENEURS

HELPED PAVE THE WAY FOR

DANISH WIND ENERGY.

3. Test centers and facilities

The establishment of the test center for small

turbines at Risø in 1979 was, in essence, a

continuation of Poul La Cour’s work in the late

century. La Cour provided test, approval

and consultancy support to turbine develop-

ers, and the researchers at Risø started out

in a similar vein. In addition to providing test

facilities and managing the approval system,

the test center played a pivotal role in bring-

ing engineering and research know-how into

play in a sector that up till then was primarily

driven by machine manufactures with few or

no engineers employed in the early phase.

The Risø test center and the research groups

at universities were therefore crucial in two

ways. On the one hand, through the test and

approval system, the engineers at Risø acted

as consultants who, with a broad know-how

from their involvement with the entire industry,

thus improved knowledge circulation within the

sector. On the other, the groups were critical

in researching and developing software and

hardware solutions for the industry.

The innovations in wind energy were fund-

ed through several Danish and European

programs including funding for developing

and testing prototypes and 0-serie turbines.

Funding for wind energy R&D went predomi-

nantly to testing and development in the early

phase. However, from the end of the 1980’s

substantial funding for research in the dif-

ferent fields of wind energy was introduced.

The Danish approach was initially based on

a learning-by-doing incremental approach

that brought all actors into close contact and

enabled a positive knowledge exchange. This

contrasts with the approach in other countries

that saw very significant investments in ad-

vanced wind energy research combined with

costly, large-scale demonstration projects.

4. Public R&D support

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Entrepreneurship and industry

POLITICAL FRAMEWORK CONDITIONS and sup-

port were vital to the success of the wind energy

industry, but it was the entrepreneurship shown

by the individuals, groups and companies who de-

signed and constructed the turbines that would be

decisive. A retrospective look at what differentiated

the early wind industry from its international com-

petitors reveals three key elements to this success:

Small, robust and reliable turbines

Vestas, Bonus, Micon, Nordtank and Nordex were

machine manufacturing companies when they

eyed the chance for a new business avenue in

constructing wind turbines. Their approach to wind

turbine manufacturing was to deliver low-tech, ro-

bust solutions. By today’s standards these turbines

were heavy, simple machines, constructed with

little finesse when it came to aerodynamic proper-

ties. But they were reliable and reasonably safe and

with an early domestic market already in place and

a later Californian market coming onstream, the

Danish turbine manufacturers were a success..

Learning-by-doing low tech approach

Photographs from Danish wind energy history in

the 1970’s and 80’s are full of people climbing

on turbines, testing the turbine blade’s structural

capacity by loading sandbags onto it, or conduct-

ing repairs on the small nacelles. These are images

of a learning-by-doing approach that character-

ised the first decades of wind power in Denmark.

Compared to the expensive, high-tech, large-scale

approach in other countries, the Danish method

allowed both industry and research organisations

to collect substantial data and personal experience

from the turbine operations at a much lower cost.

BECAUSE OF THE THEN

POPULAR SKEPTICISM SUR-

ROUNDING WIND POWER’S

CONTRIBUTION TO THE

DANISH ENERGY SYSTEM,

THERE EXISTED A STRONG

SENSE OF COMMUNITY

AMONG PEOPLE IN THE

BUSINESS.

Collaboration

The story of Danish wind power contains stories of

family feuds and conflicts between individuals, but

the overall picture is one of collaboration. Employ-

ees moved back and forth between competing

companies and because of the then popular skep-

ticism surrounding wind power’s contribution to

the Danish energy system, there existed a strong

sense of community among people in the busi-

ness. This collaboration also extended to interac-

tions between public and private organisations,

which have grown in size and importance over the

last ten years.

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A renewed partnership

for wind powered energy systems

Wind power today is a different technology and a different business than it was 20, 30 or 40

years ago, but the core attitude of Danish wind power remains. Denmark has maintained a

significant wind industry and domestic market and the country is arguably the leading R&D

hub for wind power in the world. What should we retain and what must change to maintain a

strong public-private partnership in the coming decades?

Megavind has identified a set of characteristics for a renewed Danish partnership.

Shared mission in the wind energy

community and beyond

We are on a mission to save the world from dis-

astrous climate change and to build and maintain

successful companies to achieve this goal. In com-

petition with other regional wind energy hubs, Den-

mark must continue its tradition of collaboration to

remain competitive. If we compete on investments,

we lose. Smarter investment models for research

and test infrastructures that continue to leverage

both public and private resources, coordination of

new industry standards and a shared responsibility

to educate, train and attract talent are all significant

elements required.

jects as well as the demonstration of new solutions.

This in turn attracts companies from around the

world and creates strong vocational and academic

institutions to train engineers and scientists.

Test centers and facilities

Global outlook

Wind energy is a global business, and a Danish

partnership needs to orient itself towards global

challenges and opportunities. The Danish wind

power hub is closely connected with neighboring

countries around the North Sea, but also interna-

tionally through the network of companies and re-

search institutions. Acquisition and mergers create

stronger companies, but there is also a significant

potential for smaller Danish companies to expand

if they can adapt to the megatrends outlined earlier

in this report.

Denmark boasts some of the finest test facilities in

the world, but a new generation are required if we

want companies to retain their R&D in Denmark.

The blade test facility at Blaest or the facilities at

LORC need to be upgraded to accommodate the

growing size of turbines. Increasing the size of

some test facilities is one possibility, but there is

also genuine potential for new types of test sys-

tems. These include innovative test and measure-

ment systems that combine virtual and physical

testing, test facilities for modular manufacturing,

and geographical test zones for new forms of ener-

gy system management and customer relations to

enable the further testing of wind power and hybrid

power systems.

Public ownership and the

climate/environment movement

Public R&D support

Continued public support for research and innova-

tion remains vital for the Danish wind energy sector.

This should include both national funding and the

coordination of funding with other countries to

utilise national strengths as well as Danish compa-

nies’ presence in other countries. Public support

allows collaboration on high-risk, high-rewards pro-

Cooperative ownership of wind farms in Denmark

has declined from 80% at its height to 20% today.

This shift from community to investor-owned wind

farms and the ever-increasing size of turbines has

fueled public opposition to wind energy in Denmark

and elsewhere. This opposition must be addressed.

The establishment of the Co-Existence Lab by

WindDenmark and Dansk Energi is a concrete

example of ways to foster constructive dialogues

concerning the balance between renewable en-

ergy, environmental protection and social accept-

ance

3. https://www.danskenergi.dk/sites/danskenergi.dk/files/media/dokumenter/2021-06/Forstaeelsespapir-CO-EX-Lab.pdf in Danish only

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WHAT SHOULD WE

RETAIN AND WHAT MUST

CHANGE TO MAINTAIN A

STRONG PUBLIC-PRIVATE

PARTNERSHIP IN THE

COMING DECADES?

Entrepreneurship and education

Developing megawatt turbines is a billion dollar in-

vestment and leaves little room for individual entre-

preneurship. Nonetheless, the business needs the

innovators and disruptors and there is still plenty of

room for entrepreneurs to innovate new solutions

and services. Schools and universities are edu-

cating skilled young women and men, but perhaps

we need to promote more entrepreneurship and

a go-do-it attitude in the wind energy sector. We

need the facilities, the educational programmes

and an interaction between academia and industry

that encourages new start-up companies or future

employees with the skills and attitude to make a

difference. The good news is that investors are

pouring into climate tech and are hungry for new

companies to scale.

Political visions and willingness

to invest and risk

Danish politicians must maintain a vision and a

willingness to translate that vision into effective

framework conditions to ensure our global lead in

wind power. If there is one lesson learned from the

last 40 years, then it is the importance of maintain-

ing a holistic approach: enabling and supporting

future infrastructures; maintaining an offshore and

onshore market; ensuring efficient planning pro-

cedures and the right market incentives; fostering

world-class research and innovation; and enabling

an electrical infrastructure capable of managing a

very high penetration of wind and solar power. The

current endeavors in hydrogen are an area where

those learnings can be applied.

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R&D

OPPORTUNITIES

& CHALLENGES

How do the megatrends and the missions translate into future

research and innovation?

WIND POWER AND other renewables have been

entrusted the mandate to deliver green power as

the cornerstone of an electrified energy system.

That trust brings obligations and a set of concrete

challenges that need to be overcome.

FIRST and foremost, thousands of gigawatts of

wind power will need to be delivered in the com-

ing decade. How do we ensure the right balance

between the pace and cost of this expansion? New

metrics for assessing best business models in

different markets and locations, improved under-

standing of market dynamics and financial models,

better infrastructure planning and awareness of the

raw material supply chain will be key elements in

achieving targets.

SECONDLY, the economic feasibility of a massive

expansion of wind power requires new methods

of increasing the value of wind through sector

coupling and wind power technology innovations.

Understanding the dynamic interaction between

power2x equipment with variable production units

must be addressed to reduce the cost of power2x.

There will be no green hydrogen without cheap

electrons from wind power. At the same time,

research into market dynamics and methods to as-

sess and plan infrastructure impact and optimised

production patterns are also needed.

THIRDLY, the upscaling in volume and scale,

combined with the globalised market, challenges

the entire value chain from developers to subcon-

tractors. Designing, manufacturing, transporting,

installing, operating and eventually decommis-

sioning turbines up to 15MW and more is pushing

current equipment, model and simulation tools to

their limits.

FOURTHLY, we need solutions to address the envi-

ronmental and social sustainability of wind energy.

New materials to minimise waste must go hand in

hand with innovations to create markets for recy-

cling turbine waste and solutions that extend the

operational lifetime of turbines. At the same time,

wind power enjoys broad public support in general,

but opposition locally when new wind farms are

installed. This is a paradox that must be addressed.

FINALLY, the green transition is powered by people.

Denmark faces its own challenges in this regard,

but this is first and foremost a global challenge:

to educate a qualified work force and to retrain

those transitioning from the oil and gas industry.

Countries will take different approaches to these

particular challenges, but Danish R&I can help by

enabling synergies in Danish projects with compa-

ny competences based in other countries.

WIND POWER AND OTHER

RENEWABLES HAVE BEEN

ENTRUSTED THE MANDATE

TO DELIVER GREEN POWER

AS THE CORNERSTONE OF

AN ELECTRIFIED ENERGY

SYSTEM. THAT TRUST BRINGS

OBLIGATIONS AND A SET OF

CONCRETE CHALLENGES THAT

NEED TO BE OVERCOME.

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Delivering gigawatts of wind

power to the green transition

Competences and framework for the green transition

WIND POWER AND other renewables

are recognised as the future cor-

nerstone of electricity generation in

Europe. Now is the time to deliver Giga-

watts of wind power to fuel the green

transition. The wind energy sector can

play its part through sweeping indus-

trialisation measures in its value chain,

continued cost reductions as well as

increased value of wind power through

R&I. But the access to raw materials

and a flexible and speedy regulatory

framework including market design

must also be in place. Achieving these

goals is not only important for wind

power. The entire electrification of our

society is premised on the availability

of cheap and abundant clean electrons

from wind and solar energy. There will

be no competitive green hydrogen

without cheap wind power.

These challenges call for research in four

areas:

1. Reduction of LCOE

through classical wind energy research areas

(meteorology, aerodynamics, dynamics, materi-

als, grid integration), focus on further reduction

of LCOE and retaining the competitive strength

of the Danish Energy Hub. It represents the

foundation of the Danish R&D hub in wind pow-

er and is a unique strength in the public-private

partnership

Recent years have seen very little investment in

research to increase the flexibility and resil-

ience of our energy infrastructure. This must be

addressed if we are to achieve 100% renewable

penetration without increasing the number

of high-voltage additional power lines. The

research in infrastructure should also include

regulatory test zones for developing 100%

renewable-based local and regional systems.

Improve security of supply through innovating

new materials to alleviate shortages of current

materials. Optimised design to reduce material

use or waste and the use of novel materials is a

priority, and is directly linked to the sustainabil-

ity agenda.

Research and innovation to improve the value

of investing in renewables is required. The

same is true of analysis and solutions in market

design to identify and understand efficient

incentives for investments in wind power and

energy systems.

2. Infrastructure

3. Availability of raw materials

4. Financial and market instruments

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NOW IS THE TIME TO

DELIVER GIGAWATTS

OF WIND POWER TO

POWER THE GREEN

TRANSITION

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THE ENTIRE VALUE

CHAIN MUST BALANCE

THE DEMANDS OF

UPSCALING AND

INDUSTRIALISATION

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Upscaling

Upscaling and industrialisation

to achieve cost reductions

UPSCALING IS A consistent feature

of wind power, but as we move from

achieving price parity with legacy fuels

to delivering gigawatts of wind power

the entire value chain must balance the

demands of upscaling and industriali-

sation. 180GW annually installed wind

power capacity will not be achieved

without increased levels of industriali-

sation in the wind energy sector. In ad-

dition to accelerating production and

deployment, industrialisation also pro-

vides new avenues for significant cost

reductions. But so do larger turbines.

Finding the right balance to avoid the

loss of the benefits that the upscaling

of turbines and wind farms provide,

through the roadblocks this creates

for efficient industrialisation (as larger

turbines requires larger installation

vessels, larger furnaces for cast iron

components etc.) will be a necessary

area of focus in the future too.

Megavind sees three core areas of research

and innovation to pursue in this regard.

1. Models and simulation tools

for mega turbines.

The physics of larger turbines and wind farms

are insufficiently captured by current design

tools. Research and innovation to develop and

adapt models and simulation tools to alleviate

the uncertainty in design parameters will be a

major driver for cost efficient upscaling.

capable of engaging with larger components

or enabling smart testing and increasing the

use of digital twins to reduce physical testing

requirements. This allows for innovations in

areas including AI, additive manufacturing and

test equipment and tools.

Upscaling of onshore and offshore wind tur-

bines poses new challenges in relation to the

design, production, transport and installation of

very large components. A wide range of innova-

tion opportunities are already being pursued by

Danish companies, but many more exist.

2. Test methods and facilities

3. Design for manufacturing and operation.

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System integration

and sector coupling

Increased value of wind energy for companies

and society through sector coupling

THE ELECTRIFICATION OF Society

through sector coupling and the high-

er renewable energy penetration is

changing the technology and market

dynamics that wind power is operat-

ing within. It is therefore necessary

to research and innovate technology

solutions based on market dynamics

and to understand and develop the

energy infrastructure for electrons and

molecules to facilitate the integration

of large amounts of additional renewa-

ble energy sources.

At the same time, the opportunity to

produce and use electricity directly

through combined wind power and

power2x facilities could remove the

need for connection to traditional

electrical infrastructures. This will dra-

matically reduce the cost of turbines

by removing expensive components

that are required for compliance with

the electricity grid.

A 100% renewable energy system with

superior grid stability and high security

of supply requires research and inno-

vation of processes and technologies

to enable short- and long-durational

energy storage as well as the reliable

provision of ancillary services.

Megavind recommends research

and innovation in the following areas:

1. Wind power & P2X interaction

Power2x systems and their dynamic interaction

with wind energy units with variable energy

production. This includes stand-alone systems,

and technology innovations in turbine and wind

farm technologies to increase capacity factors.

Reaping the full benefit of new systems also

requires load and production pattern optimisa-

tion, planning and scheduling with combined

wind energy and power2x systems.

R&I in optimal wind power plant/turbine config-

uration based on future energy system market

systems that will use hydrogen ammoniac sys-

tems to provide integrated storage capacity.

Efficient, grid-supporting and reliable short-

and long-duration energy storage solutions

enabling high renewable energy penetration

with favourable supply profiles.

New methods to assess and plan infrastructure

impact are called for.

2. Optimisation & planning

3. Wind power plant configuration

4. Storage solutions

5. Infrastructure planning

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Photo courtesy of NWC

A 100% RENEWABLE

ENERGY SYSTEM

WITH SUPERIOR GRID

STABILITY AND HIGH

SECURITY OF SUPPLY,

REQUIRES RESEARCH

AND INNOVATION

OF PROCESSES AND

TECHNOLOGIES

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SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT

OF THE WIND

INDUSTRY REQUIRES

A HOLISTIC VIEW OF

INTERCONNECTED

VALUE CHAINS AND

ECOSYSTEMS

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Sustainability

Technology’s co-existence

with people and nature

BY SCALING UP to deliver GWs of wind

power, the wind industry has the po-

tential to provide renewable energy to

help the world decarbonize in the face

of the climate crisis. However, the next

generation of wind turbines and wind

farm sites, while drawing on natural

resources, will impact their surround-

ings. Wind power can develop as a

truly sustainable energy choice within

a future circular economy if technol-

ogies are designed and introduced

in harmony with the environment and

surrounding communities.

Sustainable development of the

wind industry requires a holistic view

of interconnected value chains and

ecosystems that only comes from

strong partnerships, both busi-

ness-to-business and public-to-pri-

vate. Strong partnerships start with

shared understanding and purpose.

Denmark’s public and private sectors

share a common vision of sustainable

growth based on the UN Sustainable

Development Goals. Further embed-

ding these global goals into the wind

power industry requires a closer look

at the road ahead: what is the starting

point, what is the desired destination,

what mechanisms can be implement-

ed to accelerate the industry in its

effort to grow in a sustainable way,

and how will progress be measured?

Megavind recommends the following

research and innovation focus areas,

where Denmark can play a significant

role in enhancing the environmental

and social sustainability of wind power

developments through public-private

partnerships.

1. R&I of material substitution in wind tur-

bines, to increase recycled content, to

minimise environmental impacts and to

enable recycling of waste streams.

This includes reducing emissions by developing

alternative materials to avoid virgin raw mate-

rial and make separation and recycling easier.

Research into assessment of environmental

impacts of materials to avoid toxic or scarce

materials is also needed.

2. R&I to create a market for recycling man-

ufacturing waste and end-of-use wind

turbines,

including efficient recycling process-

es and new products that incorporate recycled

materials.

A fact-based approach should be taken, and

recycling solutions should be environmentally

sustainable (based on life-cycle assessment or

similar), cost-efficient and capable of handling

large volumes of waste on a global scale. This

includes developing facilities and equipment to

process the waste streams as well as support-

ing the development of products/industries

that incorporate recycled materials.

3. R&I to extend the operational lifetime of

wind turbines

including leading edge protec-

tion for blades, service and maintenance solu-

tions and new monitoring systems for turbines.

4. Develop wind farms in harmony with sur-

rounding ecosystems and communities.

Research and innovative solutions to enable

better interaction between developers, public

authorities and local communities is a key area

for future R&I activities. Research and partner-

ship building to address wind farms effects on

ecosystems both onshore and offshore is also

imperative to address potential environmental

impacts of wind farms.

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Wind Denmark – Megavind

Vesterbrogade 1C, 2nd floor

DK-1620 København V

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