Klima-, Energi- og Forsyningsudvalget 2021-22
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Front cover artwork:
A Borrowed Planet - Inherited from our ancestors. On loan from our children.
by Alisa Singer,
www.environmentalgraphiti.org © 2022 All rights reserved. Source: IPCC.
IPCC has exclusive rights to "A Borrowed Planet". The artwork can only be reproduced as part of the cover of the WGII
Summary for Policymakers. You may freely download and copy the front cover for your personal, non-commercial use,
without any right to resell or redistribute it and provided that the IPCC will be acknowledged as the source of the material
used herein. For any other use, permission is required. To obtain permission, please address your request to the IPCC
Secretariat at [email protected].
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Summary for Policymakers
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Summary for Policymakers
Drafting Authors:
Hans-O. Pörtner (Germany), Debra C. Roberts (South Africa), Helen Adams (United
Kingdom), Carolina Adler (Switzerland/Chile/Australia), Paulina Aldunce (Chile), Elham Ali (Egypt),
Rawshan Ara Begum (Malaysia/Australia/Bangladesh), Richard Betts (United Kingdom), Rachel Bezner Kerr
(Canada/USA), Robbert Biesbroek (The Netherlands), Joern Birkmann (Germany), Kathryn Bowen
(Australia), Edwin Castellanos (Guatemala), Gueladio Cissé (Mauritania/Switzerland/France), Andrew
Constable (Australia), Wolfgang Cramer (France), David Dodman (Jamaica/United Kingdom), Siri H. Eriksen
(Norway), Andreas Fischlin (Switzerland), Matthias Garschagen (Germany), Bruce Glavovic (New
Zealand/South Africa), Elisabeth Gilmore (USA/Canada), Marjolijn Haasnoot (The Netherlands), Sherilee
Harper (Canada), Toshihiro Hasegawa (Japan), Bronwyn Hayward (New Zealand), Yukiko Hirabayashi
(Japan), Mark Howden (Australia), Kanungwe Kalaba (Zambia), Wolfgang Kiessling (Germany), Rodel Lasco
(Philippines), Judy Lawrence (New Zealand), Maria Fernanda Lemos (Brazil), Robert Lempert (USA), Debora
Ley (Mexico/Guatemala), Tabea Lissner (Germany), Salvador Lluch-Cota (Mexico), Sina Loeschke
(Germany), Simone Lucatello (Mexico), Yong Luo (China), Brendan Mackey (Australia), Shobha Maharaj
(Germany/Trinidad and Tobago), Carlos Mendez (Venezuela), Katja Mintenbeck (Germany), Vincent Möller
(Germany), Mariana Moncassim Vale (Brazil), Mike D Morecroft (United Kingdom), Aditi Mukherji (India),
Michelle Mycoo (Trinidad and Tobago), Tero Mustonen (Finland), Johanna Nalau (Australia/Finland),
Andrew Okem (SouthAfrica/Nigeria), Jean Pierre Ometto (Brazil), Camille Parmesan (France/USA/United
Kingdom), Mark Pelling (United Kingdom), Patricia Pinho (Brazil), Elvira Poloczanska (United
Kingdom/Australia), Marie-Fanny Racault (United Kingdom/France), Diana Reckien (The
Netherlands/Germany), Joy Pereira (Malaysia), Aromar Revi (India), Steven Rose (USA), Roberto Sanchez-
Rodriguez (Mexico), E. Lisa F. Schipper (Sweden/United Kingdom), Daniela Schmidt (United
Kingdom/Germany), David Schoeman (Australia), Rajib Shaw (Japan), Chandni Singh (India), William
Solecki (USA), Lindsay Stringer (United Kingdom), Adelle Thomas (Bahamas), Edmond Totin (Benin),
Christopher Trisos (South Africa), Maarten van Aalst (The Netherlands), David Viner (United Kingdom),
Morgan Wairiu (Solomon Islands), Rachel Warren (United Kingdom), Pius Yanda (Tanzania), Zelina Zaiton
Ibrahim (Malaysia)
Drafting Contributing Authors:
Rita Adrian (Germany), Marlies Craig (South Africa), Frode Degvold
(Norway), Kristie L. Ebi (USA), Katja Frieler (Germany), Ali Jamshed (Germany/Pakistan), Joanna McMillan
(German/Australia), Reinhard Mechler (Austria), Mark New (South Africa), Nick Simpson (South
Africa/Zimbabwe), Nicola Stevens (South Africa)
Visual Conception and Information Design:
Andrés Alegría (Germany/Honduras), Stefanie Langsdorf
(Germany)
Date:
27 February 2022 06:00 UTC
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Table of Contents
SPM.A: Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 3
Box SPM.1: AR6 Common Climate Dimensions, Global Warming Levels and Reference Periods......... 6
SPM.B: Observed and Projected Impacts and Risks .................................................................................... 7
Observed Impacts from Climate Change ................................................................................................... 7
Vulnerability and Exposure of Ecosystems and People ........................................................................... 11
Risks in the near term (2021-2040) .......................................................................................................... 13
Mid to Long-term Risks (2041–2100)....................................................................................................... 14
Complex, Compound and Cascading Risks .............................................................................................. 18
Impacts of Temporary Overshoot ............................................................................................................. 20
SPM.C: Adaptation Measures and Enabling Conditions ........................................................................... 20
Current Adaptation and its Benefits ......................................................................................................... 20
Future Adaptation Options and their Feasibility ..................................................................................... 23
Limits to Adaptation ................................................................................................................................. 26
Avoiding Maladaptation ........................................................................................................................... 28
Enabling Conditions ................................................................................................................................. 29
SPM.D: Climate Resilient Development ....................................................................................................... 30
Conditions for Climate Resilient Development ........................................................................................ 30
Enabling Climate Resilient Development................................................................................................. 32
Climate Resilient Development for Natural and Human Systems ............................................................ 33
Achieving Climate Resilient Development ............................................................................................... 35
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SPM.A: Introduction
This Summary for Policymakers (SPM) presents key findings of the Working Group II (WGII) contribution
to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the IPCC
1
. The report builds on the WGII contribution to the Fifth
Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC, three Special Reports
2
, and the Working Group I (WGI) contribution
to the AR6 cycle.
This report recognizes the interdependence of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity
3
, and human societies
(Figure SPM.1) and integrates knowledge more strongly across the natural, ecological, social and economic
sciences than earlier IPCC assessments. The assessment of climate change impacts and risks as well as
adaptation is set against concurrently unfolding non-climatic global trends e.g., biodiversity loss, overall
unsustainable consumption of natural resources, land and ecosystem degradation, rapid urbanisation, human
demographic shifts, social and economic inequalities and a pandemic.
The scientific evidence for each key finding is found in the 18 chapters of the underlying report and in the 7
cross-chapter papers as well as the integrated synthesis presented in the Technical Summary (hereafter TS)
and referred to in curly brackets {}. Based on scientific understanding, key findings can be formulated as
statements of fact or associated with an assessed level of confidence using the IPCC calibrated language
4
. The
WGII Global to Regional Atlas (Annex I) facilitates exploration of key synthesis findings across the WGII
regions.
Decision IPCC/XLVI-3, The assessment covers scientific literature accepted for publication by 1 September 2021.
The three Special Reports are: ‘Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above
pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the
threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty (SR1.5)’; ‘Climate Change and Land. An IPCC
Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas
fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems (SRCCL)’; ‘IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC)’
3
Biodiversity: Biodiversity or biological diversity means the variability among living organisms from all sources including, among
other things, terrestrial, marine and other aquatic ecosystems, and the ecological complexes of which they are part; this includes
diversity within species, between species, and of ecosystems.
4
Each finding is grounded in an evaluation of underlying evidence and agreement. A level of confidence is expressed using five
qualifiers: very low, low, medium, high and very high, and typeset in italics, e.g.,
medium confidence.
The following terms have been
used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: virtually certain 99-100% probability, very likely 90-100%, likely
66-100%, as likely as not 33-66%, unlikely 0-33%, very unlikely 0-10%, exceptionally unlikely 0-1%. Assessed likelihood is typeset
in italics, e.g.,
very likely.
This is consistent with AR5 and the other AR6 Reports.
2
1
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Figure SPM.1:
This report has a strong focus on the interactions among the coupled systems climate, ecosystems
(including their biodiversity) and human society. These interactions are the basis of emerging risks from climate change,
ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss and, at the same time, offer opportunities for the future. (a) Human society
causes climate change. Climate change, through hazards, exposure and vulnerability generates impacts and risks that can
surpass limits to adaptation and result in losses and damages. Human society can adapt to, maladapt and mitigate climate
change, ecosystems can adapt and mitigate within limits. Ecosystems and their biodiversity provision livelihoods and
ecosystem services. Human society impacts ecosystems and can restore and conserve them. (b) Meeting the objectives of
climate resilient development thereby supporting human, ecosystem and planetary health, as well as human well-being,
requires society and ecosystems to move over (transition) to a more resilient state. The recognition of climate risks can
strengthen adaptation and mitigation actions and transitions that reduce risks. Taking action is enabled by governance,
finance, knowledge and capacity building, technology and catalysing conditions. Transformation entails system
transitions strengthening the resilience of ecosystems and society (Section D). In a) arrow colours represent principle
human society interactions (blue), ecosystem (including biodiversity) interactions (green) and the impacts of climate
change and human activities, including losses and damages, under continued climate change (red). In b) arrow colours
represent human system interactions (blue), ecosystem (including biodiversity) interactions (green) and reduced impacts
from climate change and human activities (grey). {1.2, Figure 1.2, Figure TS.1}
The concept of risk is central to all three AR6 Working Groups. A risk framing and the concepts of adaptation,
vulnerability, exposure, resilience, equity and justice, and transformation provide alternative, overlapping,
complementary, and widely used entry points to the literature assessed in this WGII report.
Across all three AR6 working groups,
risk
5
provides a framework for understanding the increasingly severe,
interconnected and often irreversible impacts of climate change on ecosystems, biodiversity, and human
systems; differing impacts across regions, sectors and communities; and how to best reduce adverse
Risk is defined as the potential for adverse consequences for human or ecological systems, recognising the diversity of values and
objectives associated with such systems
5
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consequences for current and future generations. In the context of climate change, risk can arise from the
dynamic interactions among climate-related
hazards
6
(see Working Group I), the
exposure
7
and
vulnerability
8
of affected human and ecological systems. The risk that can be introduced by human responses
to climate change is a new aspect considered in the risk concept. This report identifies 127 key risks
9
. {1.3,
16.5}
The vulnerability
of exposed human and natural systems is a component of risk, but also, independently, an
important focus in the literature. Approaches to analysing and assessing vulnerability have evolved since
previous IPCC assessments. Vulnerability is widely understood to differ within communities and across
societies, regions and countries, also changing through time.
Adaptation
10
plays a key role in reducing exposure and vulnerability to climate change. Adaptation in
ecological systems includes autonomous adjustments through ecological and evolutionary processes. In human
systems, adaptation can be anticipatory or reactive, as well as incremental and/ or transformational. The latter
changes the fundamental attributes of a social-ecological system in anticipation of climate change and its
impacts. Adaptation is subject to hard and soft limits
11
.
Resilience
12
in the literature has a wide range of meanings. Adaptation is often organized around resilience as
bouncing back and returning to a previous state after a disturbance. More broadly the term describes not just
the ability to maintain essential function, identity and structure, but also the capacity for transformation.
This report recognises the value of diverse forms of
knowledge
such as scientific, as well as Indigenous
knowledge and local knowledge in understanding and evaluating climate adaptation processes and actions to
reduce risks from human-induced climate change. AR6 highlights adaptation solutions which are effective,
feasible
13
, and conform to principles of
justice
14
.
The term climate justice, while used in different ways in
different contexts by different communities, generally includes three principles:
distributive justice
which
refers to the allocation of burdens and benefits among individuals, nations and generations;
procedural justice
which refers to who decides and participates in decision-making; and
recognition
which entails basic respect
and robust engagement with and fair consideration of diverse cultures and perspectives.
Hazard is defined as the potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may cause loss of life, injury,
or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems and
environmental resources. Physical climate conditions that may be associated with hazards are assessed in Working Group I as climatic
impact-drivers.
7
Exposure is defined as the presence of people; livelihoods; species or ecosystems; environmental functions, services and resources;
infrastructure; or economic, social or cultural assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.
8
Vulnerability in this report is defined as the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected and encompasses a variety of
concepts and elements, including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
9
Key risks have potentially severe adverse consequences for humans and social-ecological systems resulting from the interaction of
climate related hazards with vulnerabilities of societies and systems exposed.
10
Adaptation is defined, in human systems, as the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects in order to
moderate harm or take advantage of beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, adaptation is the process of adjustment to actual
climate and its effects; human intervention may facilitate this.
11
Adaptation Limits: The point at which an actor’s objectives (or system needs) cannot be secured from intolerable risks through
adaptive actions.
• Hard adaptation limit - No adaptive actions are possible to avoid intolerable risks.
• Soft adaptation limit - Options may exist but are currently not available to avoid intolerable risks through adaptive action.
12
Resilience in this report is defined as the capacity of social, economic and ecosystems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or
disturbance, responding or reorganising in ways that maintain their essential function, identity and structure as well as biodiversity in
case of ecosystems while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation. Resilience is a positive attribute
when it maintains such a capacity for adaptation, learning, and/or transformation.
13
Feasibility refers to the potential for an adaptation option to be implemented.
14
Justice is concerned with setting out the moral or legal principles of fairness and equity in the way people are treated, often based
on the ethics and values of society.
Social justice
comprises just or fair relations within society that seek to address the distribution of
wealth, access to resources, opportunity and support according to principles of justice and fairness.
Climate justice
comprises justice
that links development and human rights to achieve a rights-based approach to addressing climate change.
6
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Effectiveness refers to the extent to which an action reduces vulnerability and climate-related risk, increases
resilience, and avoids maladaptation
15
.
This report has a particular focus on transformation
16
and system transitions in energy; land, ocean, coastal
and freshwater ecosystems; urban, rural and infrastructure; and industry and society. These transitions make
possible the adaptation required for high levels of human health and wellbeing, economic and social resilience,
ecosystem health
17
, and planetary health
18
(Figure SPM.1). These system transitions are also important for
achieving the low global warming levels (WGIII) that would avoid many limits to adaptation
11
. The report
also assesses economic and non-economic losses and damages
19
. This report labels the process of
implementing mitigation and adaptation together in support of sustainable development for all as climate
resilient development
20
.
[START BOX SPM.1 HERE]
Box SPM.1: AR6 Common Climate Dimensions, Global Warming Levels and Reference Periods
Assessments of climate risks consider possible future climate change, societal development and responses.
This report assesses literature including that based on climate model simulations that are part of the fifth and
sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase (CMIP5, CMIP6) of the World Climate Research
Programme. Future projections are driven by emissions and/or concentrations from illustrative Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
21
and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)
22
scenarios, respectively
23
.
Climate impacts literature is based primarily on climate projections assessed in AR5 or earlier, or assumed
global warming levels, though some recent impacts literature uses newer projections based on the CMIP6
exercise. Given differences in the impacts literature regarding socioeconomic details and assumptions, WGII
chapters contextualize impacts with respect to exposure, vulnerability and adaptation as appropriate for their
literature, this includes assessments regarding sustainable development and climate resilient development.
There are many emissions and socioeconomic pathways that are consistent with a given global warming
outcome. These represent a broad range of possibilities as available in the literature assessed that affect future
climate change exposure and vulnerability. Where available, WGII also assesses literature that is based on an
integrative SSP-RCP framework where climate projections obtained under the RCP scenarios are analysed
against the backdrop of various illustrative SSPs
22
. The WGII assessment combines multiple lines of evidence
including impacts modelling driven by climate projections, observations, and process understanding. {1.2,
16.5, 18.2, CCB CLIMATE, WGI SPM.C, WGI Box SPM.1, WGI 1.6, WGI Ch.12, AR5 WGI}
Maladaptation refers to actions that may lead to increased risk of adverse climate-related outcomes, including via increased
greenhouse gas emissions, increased or shifted vulnerability to climate change, more inequitable outcomes, or diminished welfare,
now or in the future. Most often, maladaptation is an unintended consequence.
16
Transformation refers to a change in the fundamental attributes of natural and human systems.
17
Ecosystem health: a metaphor used to describe the condition of an ecosystem, by analogy with human health. Note that there is no
universally accepted benchmark for a healthy ecosystem. Rather, the apparent health status of an ecosystem is judged on the
ecosystem’s resilience to change, with details depending upon which metrics (such as species richness and abundance) are employed
in judging it and which societal aspirations are driving the assessment.
18
Planetary health: a concept based on the understanding that human health and human civilisation depend on ecosystem health and
the wise stewardship of ecosystems.
19
In this report, the term ‘losses and damages’ refers to adverse observed impacts and/or projected risks and can be economic and/or
non-economic.
20
In the WGII report, climate resilient development refers to the process of implementing greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation
measures to support sustainable development for all.
21
RCP-based scenarios are referred to as RCPy, where 'y' refers to the level of radiative forcing (in watts per square meter, or
W m
-2
) resulting from the scenario in the year 2100.
22
SSP-based scenarios are referred to as SSPx-y, where 'SSPx' refers to the Shared Socio-economic Pathway describing the socio-
economic trends underlying the scenarios, and 'y' refers to the level of radiative forcing (in watts per square meter, or W m
-2
) resulting
from the scenario in the year 2100.
23
IPCC is neutral with regard to the assumptions underlying the SSPs, which do not cover all possible scenarios. Alternative scenarios
may be considered or developed.
15
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A common set of reference years and time periods are adopted for assessing climate change and its impacts
and risks: the reference period 1850–1900 approximates pre-industrial global surface temperature, and three
future reference periods cover the near-term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060) and long-term (2081–2100).
{CCB CLIMATE}
Common levels of global warming relative to 1850-1900 are used to contextualize and facilitate analysis,
synthesis and communication of assessed past, present and future climate change impacts and risks considering
multiple lines of evidence. Robust geographical patterns of many variables can be identified at a given level
of global warming, common to all scenarios considered and independent of timing when the global warming
level is reached. {16.5, CCB CLIMATE, WGI 4.2, WGI CCB11.1, WGI Box SPM.1}
WGI assessed increase in global surface temperature is 1.09 [0.95 to 1.20]
24
°C in 2011-2020 above 1850-
1900. The estimated increase in global surface temperature since AR5 is principally due to further warming
since 2003–2012 (+0.19 [0.16 to 0.22] °C).
25
Considering all five illustrative scenarios assessed by WGI, there
is at least a greater than 50% likelihood that global warming will reach or exceed 1.5°C in the near‐term, even
for the very low greenhouse gas emissions scenario
26
. {WGI CCB 2.3, WGI SPM A1.2, WGI SPM B1.3, WGI
Table SPM.1}
[END BOX SPM.1 HERE]
SPM.B: Observed and Projected Impacts and Risks
Since AR5, the knowledge base on observed and projected impacts and risks generated by climate hazards,
exposure and vulnerability has increased with impacts attributed to climate change and key risks identified
across the report. Impacts and risks are expressed in terms of their damages, harms, economic, and non-
economic losses. Risks from observed vulnerabilities and responses to climate change are highlighted. Risks
are projected for the near-term (2021-2040), the mid (2041-2060) and long term (2081-2100), at different
global warming levels and for pathways that overshoot 1.5°C global warming level for multiple decades
27
.
Complex risks result from multiple climate hazards occurring concurrently, and from multiple risks
interacting, compounding overall risk and resulting in risks transmitting through interconnected systems and
across regions.
Observed Impacts from Climate Change
SPM.B.1
Human-induced climate change, including more frequent and intense extreme events, has caused
widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people, beyond natural climate
variability. Some development and adaptation efforts have reduced vulnerability. Across sectors and regions
the most vulnerable people and systems are observed to be disproportionately affected. The rise in weather
In the WGI report, square brackets [x to y] are used to provide the assessed
very likely
range, or 90% interval.
Since AR5, methodological advances and new datasets have provided a more complete spatial representation of changes in surface
temperature, including in the Arctic. These and other improvements have also increased the estimate of global surface temperature
change by approximately 0.1°C, but this increase does not represent additional physical warming since AR5.
26
Global warming of 1.5°C relative to 1850–1900 would be exceeded during the 21st century under the intermediate, high and very
high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios considered in this report (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, respectively). Under the five
illustrative scenarios, in the near term (2021–2040), the 1.5°C global warming level is
very likely
to be exceeded under the very high
greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5),
likely
to be exceeded under the intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions
scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0),
more likely than not
to be exceeded under the low greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6)
and
more likely than not
to be reached under the very low greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9). Furthermore, for the very
low greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9), it is
more likely than not
that global surface temperature would decline back to
below 1.5°C toward the end of the 21st century, with a temporary overshoot of no more than 0.1°C above 1.5°C global warming.
27
Overshoot: In this report, pathways that first exceed a specified global warming level (usually 1.5°C, by more than 0.1°C), and then
return to or below that level again before the end of a specified period of time (e.g., before 2100). Sometimes the magnitude and
likelihood of the overshoot is also characterized. The overshoot duration can vary from at least one decade up to several decades.
25
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and climate extremes has led to some irreversible impacts as natural and human systems are pushed beyond
their ability to adapt. (high
confidence)
(Figure SPM.2) {1.3, 2.3, 2.4, 2.6, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5, 4.2, 4.3, 5.2, 5.12, 6.2,
7.2, 8.2, 9.6, 9.8, 9.10, 9.11, 10.4, 11.3, 12.3, 12.4, 13.10, 14.4, 14.5, 15.3, 16.2, CCP1.2, CCP3.2, CCP4.1,
CCP5.2, CCP6.2, CCP7.2, CCP7.3, CCB EXTREMES, CCB ILLNESS, CCB SLR, CCB NATURAL, CCB
DISASTER, CCB MIGRATE, Figure TS.5, TS B1
SPM.B.1.1
Widespread, pervasive impacts to ecosystems, people, settlements, and infrastructure have resulted
from observed increases in the frequency and intensity of climate and weather extremes, including hot
extremes on land and in the ocean, heavy precipitation events, drought and fire weather (high
confidence).
Increasingly since AR5, these observed impacts have been attributed
28
to human-induced climate
change particularly through increased frequency and severity of extreme events. These include increased heat-
related human mortality (medium
confidence),
warm-water coral bleaching and mortality (high
confidence),
and increased drought related tree mortality (high
confidence).
Observed increases in areas burned by wildfires
have been attributed to human-induced climate change in some regions (medium to
high confidence).
Adverse
impacts from tropical cyclones, with related losses and damages
19
, have increased due to sea level rise and the
increase in heavy precipitation (medium
confidence).
Impacts in natural and human systems from slow-onset
processes
29
such as ocean acidification, sea level rise or regional decreases in precipitation have also been
attributed to human induced climate change (high
confidence).
{1.3, 2.3, 2.4, 2.5, 3.2, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6, 4.2, 5.2,
5.4, 5.6, 5.12, 7.2, 9.6, 9.8, 9.7, 9.8, 9.11, 11.3, Box 11.1, Box 11.2, Table 11.9, 12.3, 12.4, 13.3, 13.5, 13.10,
14.2,14.5, 15.7, 15.8, 16.2, Box CCP5.1, CCP1.2, CCP2.2, CCP7.3, CCB EXTREME, CCB ILLNESS, CCB
DISASTER, WG1 9, WGI 11.3-11.8, WGI SPM.3, SROCC Ch. 4}
SPM.B.1.2
Climate change has caused substantial damages, and increasingly irreversible losses, in terrestrial,
freshwater and coastal and open ocean marine ecosystems (high
confidence).
The extent and magnitude of
climate change impacts are larger than estimated in previous assessments (high
confidence).
Widespread
deterioration of ecosystem structure and function, resilience and natural adaptive capacity, as well as shifts in
seasonal timing have occurred due to climate change (high
confidence),
with adverse socioeconomic
consequences (high
confidence).
Approximately half of the species assessed globally have shifted polewards
or, on land, also to higher elevations (very
high confidence).
Hundreds of local losses of species have been
driven by increases in the magnitude of heat extremes (high
confidence),
as well as mass mortality events on
land and in the ocean (very
high confidence)
and loss of kelp forests (high
confidence).
Some losses are already
irreversible, such as the first species extinctions driven by climate change (medium
confidence).
Other impacts
are approaching irreversibility such as the impacts of hydrological changes resulting from the retreat of
glaciers, or the changes in some mountain (medium
confidence)
and Arctic ecosystems driven by permafrost
thaw (high
confidence).
(Figure SPM.2a). {2.3, 2.4, 3.4, 3.5, 4.2, 4.3, 4.5, 9.6, 10.4, 11.3, 12.3, 12.8, 13.3,
13.4, 13.10, 14.4, 14.5, 14.6, 15.3, 16.2, CCP1.2; CCP3.2, CCP4.1, CCP5.2, CCP6.1, CCP6.2, CCP7.2,
CCP7.3, CCP5.2, Figure CCP5.4, CCB PALEO, CCB EXTREMES, CCB ILLNESS, CCB SLR, CCB
NATURAL, CCB MOVING PLATE, Figure TS.5, TS B1, SROCC 2.3}
Attribution is defined as the process of evaluating the relative contributions of multiple causal factors to a change or event with an
assessment of confidence. {Annex II Glossary, CWGB ATTRIB}
29
Impacts of climate change are caused by slow onset and extreme events. Slow onset events are described among the climatic-impact
drivers of the WGI AR6 and refer to the risks and impacts associated with e.g., increasing temperature means, desertification,
decreasing precipitation, loss of biodiversity, land and forest degradation, glacial retreat and related impacts, ocean acidification, sea
level rise and salinization (https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch).
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Figure SPM.2:
Observed global and regional impacts on ecosystems and human systems attributed to climate change.
Confidence levels reflect uncertainty in attribution of the observed impact to climate change. Global assessments focus
on large studies, multi-species, meta-analyses and large reviews. For that reason they can be assessed with higher
confidence than regional studies, which may often rely on smaller studies that have more limited data. Regional
assessments consider evidence on impacts across an entire region and do not focus on any country in particular. (a)
Climate change has already altered terrestrial, freshwater and ocean ecosystems at global scale, with multiple impacts
evident at regional and local scales where there is sufficient literature to make an assessment. Impacts are evident on
ecosystem structure, species geographic ranges and timing of seasonal life cycles (phenology) (for methodology and
detailed references to chapters and cross-chapter papers see SMTS.1 and SMTS.1.1). (b) Climate change has already had
diverse adverse impacts on human systems, including on water security and food production, health and well-being, and
cities, settlements and infrastructure. The + and – symbols indicate the direction of observed impacts, with a – denoting
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an increasing adverse impact and a ± denoting that, within a region or globally, both adverse and positive impacts have
been observed (e.g., adverse impacts in one area or food item may occur with positive impacts in another area or food
item). Globally, ‘–’ denotes an overall adverse impact; ‘Water scarcity’ considers, e.g., water availability in general,
groundwater, water quality, demand for water, drought in cities. Impacts on food production were assessed by excluding
non-climatic drivers of production increases; Global assessment for agricultural production is based on the impacts on
global aggregated production; ‘Reduced animal and livestock health and productivity’ considers, e.g., heat stress,
diseases, productivity, mortality; ‘Reduced fisheries yields and aquaculture production’ includes marine and freshwater
fisheries/production; ‘Infectious diseases’ include, e.g., water-borne and vector-borne diseases; ‘Heat, malnutrition and
other’ considers, e.g., human heat-related morbidity and mortality, labour productivity, harm from wildfire, nutritional
deficiencies; ‘Mental health’ includes impacts from extreme weather events, cumulative events, and vicarious or
anticipatory events; ‘Displacement’ assessments refer to evidence of displacement attributable to climate and weather
extremes; ‘Inland flooding and associated damages’ considers, e.g., river overflows, heavy rain, glacier outbursts, urban
flooding; ‘Flood/storm induced damages in coastal areas’ include damages due to, e.g., cyclones, sea level rise, storm
surges. Damages by key economic sectors are observed impacts related to an attributable mean or extreme climate hazard
or directly attributed. Key economic sectors include standard classifications and sectors of importance to regions (for
methodology and detailed references to chapters and cross-chapter papers see SMTS.1 and SMTS.1.2).
SPM.B.1.3
Climate change including increases in frequency and intensity of extremes have reduced food and
water security, hindering efforts to meet Sustainable Development Goals (high
confidence).
Although overall
agricultural productivity has increased, climate change has slowed this growth over the past 50 years globally
(medium
confidence),
related negative impacts were mainly in mid- and low latitude regions but positive
impacts occurred in some high latitude regions (high
confidence).
Ocean warming and ocean acidification
have adversely affected food production from shellfish aquaculture and fisheries in some oceanic regions (high
confidence).
Increasing weather and climate extreme events have exposed millions of people to acute food
insecurity
30
and reduced water security, with the largest impacts observed in many locations and/or
communities in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, Small Islands and the Arctic (high
confidence).
Jointly, sudden losses of food production and access to food compounded by decreased diet diversity have
increased malnutrition in many communities (high
confidence),
especially for Indigenous Peoples, small-scale
food producers and low-income households (high
confidence),
with children, elderly people and pregnant
women particularly impacted (high
confidence).
Roughly half of the world’s population currently experience
severe water scarcity for at least some part of the year due to climatic and non-climatic drivers (medium
confidence).
(Figure SPM.2b) {3.5, Box 4.1, 4.3, 4.4, 5.2, 5.4, 5.8, 5.9, 5.12, 7.1, 7.2, 9.8, 10.4, 11.3, 12.3,
13.5, 14.4, 14.5, 15.3, 16.2, CCP5.2, CCP6.2}
SPM.B.1.4
Climate change has adversely affected physical health of people globally (very
high confidence)
and mental health of people in the assessed regions (very
high confidence).
Climate change impacts on health
are mediated through natural and human systems, including economic and social conditions and disruptions
(high
confidence).
In all regions extreme heat events have resulted in human mortality and morbidity (very
high confidence).
The occurrence of climate-related food-borne and water-borne diseases has increased (very
high confidence).
The incidence of vector-borne diseases has increased from range expansion and/or increased
reproduction of disease vectors (high
confidence).
Animal and human diseases, including zoonoses, are
emerging in new areas (high
confidence).
Water and food-borne disease risks have increased regionally from
climate-sensitive aquatic pathogens, including
Vibrio
spp. (high
confidence),
and from toxic substances from
harmful freshwater cyanobacteria (medium
confidence).
Although diarrheal diseases have decreased globally,
higher temperatures, increased rain and flooding have increased the occurrence of diarrheal diseases, including
cholera (very
high confidence)
and other gastrointestinal infections (high
confidence).
In assessed regions,
some mental health challenges are associated with increasing temperatures (high
confidence),
trauma from
weather and climate extreme events (very
high confidence),
and loss of livelihoods and culture (high
confidence).
Increased exposure to wildfire smoke, atmospheric dust, and aeroallergens have been associated
with climate-sensitive cardiovascular and respiratory distress (high
confidence).
Health services have been
disrupted by extreme events such as floods (high
confidence).
{4.3, 5.12, 7.2, Box 7.3, 8.2, 8.3, Figure 8.10,
Acute food insecurity can occur at any time with a severity that threatens lives, livelihoods or both, regardless of the causes, context
or duration, as a result of shocks risking determinants of food security and nutrition, and used to assess the need for humanitarian action
(IPC Global Partners, 2019).
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Box 8.6, 9.10, Figure 9.33, Figure 9.34, 10.4, 11.3, 12.3, 13.7, 14.4, 14.5, Figure 14.8, 15.3, 16.2, Table
CCP5.1, CCP5.2.5, CCP6.2, Figure CCP6.3, Table CCB ILLNESS.1}
SPM.B.1.5
In urban settings, observed climate change has caused impacts on human health, livelihoods and
key infrastructure (high
confidence).
Multiple climate and non-climate hazards impact cities, settlements and
infrastructure and sometimes coincide, magnifying damage (high
confidence).
Hot extremes including
heatwaves have intensified in cities (high
confidence),
where they have also aggravated air pollution events
(medium
confidence)
and limited functioning of key infrastructure (high
confidence).
Observed impacts are
concentrated amongst the economically and socially marginalized urban residents, e.g., in informal settlements
(high
confidence).
Infrastructure, including transportation, water, sanitation and energy systems have been
compromised by extreme and slow-onset events, with resulting economic losses, disruptions of services and
impacts to wellbeing (high
confidence).
{4.3, 6.2, 7.1, 7.2, 9.9, 10.4, 11.3, 12.3, 13.6, 14.5, 15.3, CCP2.2,
CCP4.2, CCP5.2}
SPM.B.1.6
Overall adverse economic impacts attributable to climate change, including slow-onset and
extreme weather events, have been increasingly identified (medium
confidence).
Some positive economic
effects have been identified in regions that have benefited from lower energy demand as well as comparative
advantages in agricultural markets and tourism (high
confidence).
Economic damages from climate change
have been detected in climate-exposed sectors, with regional effects to agriculture, forestry, fishery, energy,
and tourism (high
confidence),
and through outdoor labour productivity (high
confidence).
Some extreme
weather events, such as tropical cyclones, have reduced economic growth in the short-term (high
confidence).
Non-climatic factors including some patterns of settlement, and siting of infrastructure have contributed to the
exposure of more assets to extreme climate hazards increasing the magnitude of the losses (high
confidence).
Individual livelihoods have been affected through changes in agricultural productivity, impacts
on human health and food security, destruction of homes and infrastructure, and loss of property and income,
with adverse effects on gender and social equity (high
confidence).
{3.5, 4.2, 5.12, 6.2, 7.2, 8.2, 9.6, 10.4,
13.10, 14.5, Box 14.6, 16.2, Table 16.5, 18.3, CCP6.2, CCB GENDER, CWGB ECONOMICS}
SPM.B.1.7
Climate change is contributing to humanitarian crises where climate hazards interact with high
vulnerability (high
confidence).
Climate and weather extremes are increasingly driving displacement in all
regions (high
confidence),
with small island states disproportionately affected (high
confidence).
Flood and
drought-related acute food insecurity and malnutrition have increased in Africa (high
confidence)
and Central
and South America (high
confidence).
While non-climatic factors are the dominant drivers of existing
intrastate violent conflicts, in some assessed regions extreme weather and climate events have had a small,
adverse impact on their length, severity or frequency, but the statistical association is weak (medium
confidence).
Through displacement and involuntary migration from extreme weather and climate events,
climate change has generated and perpetuated vulnerability (medium
confidence).
{4.2, 4.3, 5.4, 7.2, 9.8, Box
9.9, Box 10.4, 12.3, 12.5, CCB MIGRATE, CCB DISASTER, 16.2}
Vulnerability and Exposure of Ecosystems and People
SPM.B.2
Vulnerability of ecosystems and people to climate change differs substantially among and within
regions (very
high confidence),
driven by patterns of intersecting socio-economic development, unsustainable
ocean and land use, inequity, marginalization, historical and ongoing patterns of inequity such as colonialism,
and governance
31
(high
confidence).
Approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in contexts that are highly
vulnerable to climate change (high
confidence).
A high proportion of species is vulnerable to climate change
(high
confidence).
Human and ecosystem vulnerability are interdependent (high
confidence).
Current
unsustainable development patterns are increasing exposure of ecosystems and people to climate hazards (high
confidence).
{2.3, 2.4, 3.5, 4.3, 6.2, 8.2, 8.3, 9.4, 9.7, 10.4, 12.3, 14.5, 15.3, CCP5.2, CCP6.2, CCP7.3, CCP7.4,
CCB GENDER}
Governance: The structures, processes and actions through which private and public actors interact to address societal goals. This
includes formal and informal institutions and the associated norms, rules, laws and procedures for deciding, managing, implementing
and monitoring policies and measures at any geographic or political scale, from global to local.
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SPM.B.2.1
Since AR5 there is increasing evidence that degradation and destruction of ecosystems by humans
increases the vulnerability of people (high
confidence).
Unsustainable land-use and land cover change,
unsustainable use of natural resources, deforestation, loss of biodiversity, pollution, and their interactions,
adversely affect the capacities of ecosystems, societies, communities and individuals to adapt to climate
change (high
confidence).
Loss of ecosystems and their services has cascading and long-term impacts on
people globally, especially for Indigenous Peoples and local communities who are directly dependent on
ecosystems, to meet basic needs (high
confidence).
{2.3, 2.5, 2.6, 3.5, 3.6, 4.2, 4.3, 4.6, 5.1, 5.4, 5.5, 5.7, 5.8,
7.2, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 8.4, 8.5, 9.6, 10.4, 11.3, 12.2, 12.5. 13.8, 14.4, 14.5, 15.3, CCP1.2, CCP1.3, CCP2.2, CCP3,
CCP4.3, CCP5.2, CCP6.2, CCP7.2, CCP7.3, CCP7.4, CCB ILLNESS, CCB MOVING PLATE, CCB SLR}
SPM.B.2.2
Non-climatic human-induced factors exacerbate current ecosystem vulnerability to climate change
(very
high confidence).
Globally, and even within protected areas, unsustainable use of natural resources,
habitat fragmentation, and ecosystem damage by pollutants increase ecosystem vulnerability to climate change
(high
confidence).
Globally, less than 15% of the land, 21% of the freshwater and 8% of the ocean are protected
areas. In most protected areas, there is insufficient stewardship to contribute to reducing damage from, or
increasing resilience to, climate change (high
confidence).
{2.4, 2.5, 2.6, 3.4, 3.6, 4.2, 4.3, 5.8, 9.6, 11.3, 12.3,
13.3, 13.4, 14.5, 15.3, CCP1.2 Figure CCP1.15, CCP2.1, CCP2.2, CCP4.2, CCP5.2, CCP 6.2, CCP7.2,
CCP7.3, CCB NATURAL}
SPM.B.2.3
Future vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change will be strongly influenced by the past,
present and future development of human society, including from overall unsustainable consumption and
production, and increasing demographic pressures, as well as persistent unsustainable use and management of
land, ocean, and water (high
confidence).
Projected climate change, combined with non-climatic drivers, will
cause loss and degradation of much of the world’s forests (high
confidence),
coral reefs and low-lying coastal
wetlands (very
high confidence).
While agricultural development contributes to food security, unsustainable
agricultural expansion, driven in part by unbalanced diets
32
, increases ecosystem and human vulnerability and
leads to competition for land and/or water resources (high
confidence).
{2.2, 2.3, 2.4, 2.6, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6, 4.3,
4.5, 5.6, 5.12, 5.13, 7.2, 12.3, 13.3, 13.4, 13.10, 14.5, CCP1.2, CCP2.2, CCP5.2, CCP6.2, CCP7.2, CCP7.3,
CCB NATURAL, CCB HEALTH}
SPM.B.2.4
Regions and people with considerable development constraints have high vulnerability to climatic
hazards (high
confidence).
Global hotspots of high human vulnerability are found particularly in West-,
Central- and East Africa, South Asia, Central and South America, Small Island Developing States and the
Arctic (high
confidence).
Vulnerability is higher in locations with poverty, governance challenges and limited
access to basic services and resources, violent conflict and high levels of climate-sensitive livelihoods (e.g.,
smallholder farmers, pastoralists, fishing communities) (high
confidence).
Between 2010-2020, human
mortality from floods, droughts and storms was 15 times higher in highly vulnerable regions, compared to
regions with very low vulnerability (high
confidence).
Vulnerability at different spatial levels is exacerbated
by inequity and marginalization linked to gender, ethnicity, low income or combinations thereof (high
confidence),
especially for many Indigenous Peoples and local communities (high
confidence).
Present
development challenges causing high vulnerability are influenced by historical and ongoing patterns of
inequity such as colonialism, especially for many Indigenous Peoples and local communities (high
confidence).
{4.2, 5.12, 6.2, 6.4, 7.1, 7.2, Box 7.1, 8.2, 8.3, Box 8.4, Figure 8.6, Box 9.1, 9.4, 9.7, 9.9, 10.3,
10.4, 10.6, 12.3, 12.5, Box 13.2, 14.4, 15.3, 15.6, 16.2, CCP6.2, CCP7.4}
SPM.B.2.5
Future human vulnerability will continue to concentrate where the capacities of local, municipal
and national governments, communities and the private sector are least able to provide infrastructures and
basic services (high
confidence).
Under the global trend of urbanization, human vulnerability will also
concentrate in informal settlements and rapidly growing smaller settlements (high
confidence).
In rural areas
vulnerability will be heightened by compounding processes including high emigration, reduced habitability
and high reliance on climate-sensitive livelihoods (high
confidence).
Key infrastructure systems including
sanitation, water, health, transport, communications and energy will be increasingly vulnerable if design
Balanced diets feature plant-based foods, such as those based on coarse grains, legumes fruits and vegetables, nuts and seeds, and
animal-source foods produced in resilient, sustainable and low-greenhouse gas emissions systems, as described in SRCCL.
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standards do not account for changing climate conditions (high
confidence).
Vulnerability will also rapidly
rise in low-lying Small Island Developing States and atolls in the context of sea level rise and in some mountain
regions, already characterised by high vulnerability due to high dependence on climate-sensitive livelihoods,
rising population displacement, the accelerating loss of ecosystem services and limited adaptive capacities
(high
confidence).
Future exposure to climatic hazards is also increasing globally due to socio-economic
development trends including migration, growing inequality and urbanization
(high confidence).
{4.5, 5.5, 6.2,
7.2, 8.3, 9.9, 9.11, 10.3, 10.4, 12.3, 12.5, 13.6, 14.5, 15.3, 15.4, 16.5, CCP2.3, CCP4.3, CCP5.2, CCP5.3,
CCP5.4, CCP6.2, CCB MIGRATE}
Risks in the near term (2021-2040)
SPM.B.3
Global warming, reaching 1.5°C in the near-term, would cause unavoidable increases in multiple
climate hazards and present multiple risks to ecosystems and humans (very
high confidence).
The level of risk
will depend on concurrent near-term trends in vulnerability, exposure, level of socioeconomic development
and adaptation (high
confidence).
Near-term actions that limit global warming to close to 1.5°C would
substantially reduce projected losses and damages related to climate change in human systems and ecosystems,
compared to higher warming levels, but cannot eliminate them all (very
high confidence).
(Figure SPM.3, Box
SPM.1) {WGI Table SPM.1, 16.4, 16.5, 16.6, CCP1.2, CCP5.3, CCB SLR, WGI SPM B1.3}
SPM.B.3.1
Near-term warming and increased frequency, severity and duration of extreme events will place
many terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine ecosystems at high or very high risks of biodiversity loss
(medium
to very high confidence,
depending on ecosystem). Near-term risks for biodiversity loss are moderate
to high in forest ecosystems (medium
confidence),
kelp and seagrass ecosystems (high to
very high
confidence),
and high to very high in Arctic sea-ice and terrestrial ecosystems (high
confidence)
and warm-
water coral reefs (very
high confidence).
Continued and accelerating sea level rise will encroach on coastal
settlements and infrastructure (high
confidence)
and commit low-lying coastal ecosystems to submergence and
loss (medium
confidence).
If trends in urbanisation in exposed areas continue, this will exacerbate the impacts,
with more challenges where energy, water and other services are constrained (medium
confidence).
The
number of people at risk from climate change and associated loss of biodiversity will progressively increase
(medium
confidence).
Violent conflict and, separately, migration patterns, in the near-term will be driven by
socio-economic conditions and governance more than by climate change (medium
confidence).
(Figure
SPM.3) {2.5, 3.4, 4.6, 6.2, 7.3, 8.7, 9.2, 9.9, 11.6, 12.5, 13.6, 13.10, 14.6, 15.3, 16.5, 16.6, CCP1.2, CCP2.1,
CCP2.2, CCP5.3, CCP6.2, CCP6.3, CCB SLR, CCB MIGRATE}
SPM.B.3.2
In the near term, climate-associated risks to natural and human systems depend more strongly on
changes in their vulnerability and exposure than on differences in climate hazards between emissions scenarios
(high
confidence).
Regional differences exist, and risks are highest where species and people exist close to
their upper thermal limits, along coastlines, in close association with ice or seasonal rivers (high
confidence).
Risks are also high where multiple non-climate drivers persist or where vulnerability is otherwise elevated
(high
confidence).
Many of these risks are unavoidable in the near-term, irrespective of emission scenario
(high
confidence).
Several risks can be moderated with adaptation (high
confidence).
(Figure SPM.3, Section
C) {2.5, 3.3, 3.4, 4.5, 6.2, 7.1, 7.3, 8.2, 11.6, 12.4, 13.6, 13.7, 13.10, 14.5, 16.4, 16.5, CCP2.2, CCP4.3, CCP5.3,
CCB SLR, WGI Table SPM.1}
SPM.B.3.3
Levels of risk for all Reasons for Concern (RFC) are assessed to become high to very high at lower
global warming levels than in AR5 (high
confidence).
Between 1.2°C and 4.5°C global warming level very
high risks emerge in all five RFCs compared to just two RFCs in AR5 (high
confidence).
Two of these
transitions from high to very high risk are associated with near-term warming: risks to unique and threatened
systems at a median value of 1.5°C [1.2 to 2.0] °C (high
confidence)
and risks associated with extreme weather
events at a median value of 2°C [1.8 to 2.5] °C (medium
confidence).
Some key risks contributing to the RFCs
are projected to lead to widespread, pervasive, and potentially irreversible impacts at global warming levels
of 1.5–2°C if exposure and vulnerability are high and adaptation is low (medium
confidence).
Near-term
actions that limit global warming to close to 1.5°C would substantially reduce projected losses and damages
related to climate change in human systems and ecosystems, compared to higher warming levels, but cannot
eliminate them all (very
high confidence).
(Figure SPM.3b) {16.5, 16.6, CCB SLR}
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Mid to Long-term Risks (2041–2100)
SPM.B.4
Beyond 2040 and depending on the level of global warming, climate change will lead to numerous
risks to natural and human systems (high
confidence).
For 127 identified key risks, assessed mid- and long-
term impacts are up to multiple times higher than currently observed (high
confidence).
The magnitude and
rate of climate change and associated risks depend strongly on near-term mitigation and adaptation actions,
and projected adverse impacts and related losses and damages escalate with every increment of global warming
(very
high confidence).
(Figure SPM.3) {2.5, 3.4, 4.4, 5.2, 6.2, 7.3, 8.4, 9.2, 10.2, 11.6, 12.4, 13.2, 13.3, 13.4,
13.5, 13.6, 13.7, 13.8, 14.6, 15.3, 16.5, 16.6, CCP1.2; CCP2.2, CCP3.3, CCP4.3, CCP5.3, CCP6.3, CCP7.3}
SPM.B.4.1
Biodiversity loss, and degradation, damages to and transformation of ecosystems are already key
risks for every region due to past global warming and will continue to escalate with every increment of global
warming (very
high confidence).
In terrestrial ecosystems, 3 to 14% of species assessed
33
will
likely
face very
high risk of extinction
34
at global warming levels of 1.5°C, increasing up to 3 to 18% at 2°C, 3 to 29% at 3°C,
3 to 39% at 4°C, and 3 to 48% at 5°C. In ocean and coastal ecosystems, risk of biodiversity loss ranges between
moderate and very high by 1.5°C global warming level and is moderate to very high by 2°C but with more
ecosystems at high and very high risk (high
confidence),
and increases to high to very high across most ocean
and coastal ecosystems by 3°C (medium to
high confidence,
depending on ecosystem). Very high extinction
risk for endemic species in biodiversity hotspots is projected to at least double from 2% between 1.5°C and
2°C global warming levels and to increase at least tenfold if warming rises from 1.5°C to 3°C (medium
confidence).
(Figure SPM.3c, d, f) {2.4, 2.5, 3.4, 3.5,12.3, 12.5, Table 12.6, 13.4, 13.10, 16.4, 16.6, CCP1.2,
Figure CCP1.6; Figure CCP1.7, CCP5.3, CCP6.3, CCB PALEO}
SPM.B.4.2
Risks in physical water availability and water-related hazards will continue to increase by the mid-
to long-term in all assessed regions, with greater risk at higher global warming levels (high
confidence).
At
approximately 2°C global warming, snowmelt water availability for irrigation is projected to decline in some
snowmelt dependent river basins by up to 20%, and global glacier mass loss of 18
±
13% is projected to
diminish water availability for agriculture, hydropower, and human settlements in the mid- to long-term, with
these changes projected to double with 4°C global warming (medium
confidence).
In small islands,
groundwater availability is threatened by climate change (high
confidence).
Changes to streamflow magnitude,
timing and associated extremes are projected to adversely impact freshwater ecosystems in many watersheds
by the mid- to long-term across all assessed scenarios (medium
confidence).
Projected increases in direct flood
damages are higher by 1.4 to 2 times at 2°C and 2.5 to 3.9 times at 3°C compared to 1.5°C global warming
without adaptation (medium
confidence).
At global warming of 4°C, approximately 10% of the global land
area is projected to face increases in both extreme high and low river flows in the same location, with
implications for planning for all water use sectors (medium
confidence).
Challenges for water management
will be exacerbated in the near, mid and long term, depending on the magnitude, rate and regional details of
future climate change and will be particularly challenging for regions with constrained resources for water
management (high
confidence).
{2.3, Box 4.2, 4.4, 4.5, Figure 4.20, 15.3, CCB DISASTER, CCP5.3, SROCC
2.3}
SPM.B.4.3
Climate change will increasingly put pressure on food production and access, especially in
vulnerable regions, undermining food security and nutrition (high
confidence).
Increases in frequency,
intensity and severity of droughts, floods and heatwaves, and continued sea level rise will increase risks to
food security (high
confidence)
in vulnerable regions from moderate to high between 1.5°C and 2°C global
warming level, with no or low levels of adaptation (medium
confidence).
At 2°C or higher global warming
level in the mid-term, food security risks due to climate change will be more severe, leading to malnutrition
and micro-nutrient deficiencies, concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Central and South America
and Small Islands (high
confidence).
Global warming will progressively weaken soil health and ecosystem
Numbers of species assessed are in the tens of thousands globally.
The term ‘very high risks of extinction’ is used here consistently with the IUCN categories and criteria and equates with ‘critically
endangered’.
34
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services such as pollination, increase pressure from pests and diseases, and reduce marine animal biomass,
undermining food productivity in many regions on land and in the ocean (medium
confidence).
At 3ºC or
higher global warming level in the long term, areas exposed to climate-related hazards will expand
substantially compared with 2ºC or lower global warming level (high
confidence),
exacerbating regional
disparity in food security risks (high
confidence).
(Figure SPM.3) {1.1, 3.3, CCB SLR, 4.5, 5.2, 5.4, 5.5, 5.8,
5.9, 5.12, CCB MOVING PLATE, 7.3, 8.3, 9.11,13.5,15.3, 16.5, 16.6}
SPM.B.4.4
Climate change and related extreme events will significantly increase ill health and premature
deaths from the near- to long-term (high
confidence).
Globally, population exposure to heatwaves will continue
to increase with additional warming, with strong geographical differences in heat-related mortality without
additional adaptation (very
high confidence).
Climate-sensitive food-borne, water-borne, and vector-borne
disease risks are projected to increase under all levels of warming without additional adaptation (high
confidence).
In particular, dengue risk will increase with longer seasons and a wider geographic distribution
in Asia, Europe, Central and South America and sub-Saharan Africa, potentially putting additional billions of
people at risk by the end of the century (high
confidence).
Mental health challenges, including anxiety and
stress, are expected to increase under further global warming in all assessed regions, particularly for children,
adolescents, elderly, and those with underlying health conditions (very
high confidence).
{4.5, 5.12, Box 5.10,
7.3, Fig 7.9, 8.4, 9.10, Fig 9.32, Fig 9.35, 10.4, Fig 10.11, 11.3, 12.3, Fig 12.5, Fig 12.6, 13.7, Fig 13.23, Fig
13.24, 14.5, 15.3, CCP6.2}
SPM.B.4.5
Climate change risks to cities, settlements and key infrastructure will rise rapidly in the mid- and
long-term with further global warming, especially in places already exposed to high temperatures, along
coastlines, or with high vulnerabilities (high
confidence).
Globally, population change in low-lying cities and
settlements will lead to approximately a billion people projected to be at risk from coastal-specific climate
hazards in the mid-term under all scenarios, including in Small Islands (high
confidence).
The population
potentially exposed to a 100-year coastal flood is projected to increase by about 20% if global mean sea level
rises by 0.15 m relative to 2020 levels; this exposed population doubles at a 0.75 m rise in mean sea level and
triples at 1.4 m without population change and additional adaptation (medium
confidence).
Sea level rise poses
an existential threat for some Small Islands and some low-lying coasts (medium
confidence).
By 2100 the
value of global assets within the future 1-in-100 year coastal floodplains is projected to be between US$7.9
and US$12.7 trillion (2011 value) under RCP4.5, rising to between US$8.8 and US$14.2 trillion under RCP8.5
(medium
confidence).
Costs for maintenance and reconstruction of urban infrastructure, including building,
transportation, and energy will increase with global warming level (medium
confidence),
the associated
functional disruptions are projected to be substantial particularly for cities, settlements and infrastructure
located on permafrost in cold regions and on coasts (high
confidence).
{6.2, 9.9, 10.4, 13.6, 13.10, 15.3, 16.5,
CCP2.1, CCP2.2, CCP5.3, CCP6.2, CCB SLR, SROCC 2.3, SROCC CCB9}
SPM.B.4.6
Projected estimates of global aggregate net economic damages generally increase non-linearly
with global warming levels (high
confidence).
35
The wide range of global estimates, and the lack of
comparability between methodologies, does not allow for identification of a robust range of estimates (high
confidence).
The existence of higher estimates than assessed in AR5 indicates that global aggregate economic
impacts could be higher than previous estimates (low
confidence).
36
Significant regional variation in aggregate
economic damages from climate change is projected (high
confidence)
with estimated economic damages per
capita for developing countries often higher as a fraction of income (high
confidence).
Economic damages,
including both those represented and those not represented in economic markets, are projected to be lower at
1.5°C than at 3°C or higher global warming levels (high
confidence).
{4.4, 9.11, 11.5, 13.10, Box 14.6, 16.5,
CWGB ECONOMICS}
SPM.B.4.7
In the mid- to long-term, displacement will increase with intensification of heavy precipitation and
associated flooding, tropical cyclones, drought and, increasingly, sea level rise (high
confidence).
At
progressive levels of warming, involuntary migration from regions with high exposure and low adaptive
35
The assessment found estimated rates of increase in projected global economic damages that were both greater than linear and less
than linear as global warming level increases. There is evidence that some regions could benefit from low levels of warming (high
confidence).
{CWGB ECONOMICS}
36
Low confidence
assigned due to the assessed lack of comparability and robustness of global aggregate economic damage estimates.
{CWGB ECONOMICS}
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capacity would occur (medium
confidence).
Compared to other socioeconomic factors the influence of climate
on conflict is assessed as relatively weak (high
confidence).
Along long-term socioeconomic pathways that
reduce non-climatic drivers, risk of violent conflict would decline (medium
confidence).
At higher global
warming levels, impacts of weather and climate extremes, particularly drought, by increasing vulnerability
will increasingly affect violent intrastate conflict (medium
confidence).
{7.3, 16.5, CCB MIGRATE, TSB7.4}
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Figure SPM.3:
Synthetic diagrams of global and sectoral assessments and examples of regional key risks.
Diagrams show the change in the levels of impacts and risks assessed for global warming of 0-5°C global
surface temperature change relative to pre-industrial period (1850-1900) over the range. (a) Global surface
temperature changes in °C relative to 1850–1900. These changes were obtained by combining CMIP6 model
simulations with observational constraints based on past simulated warming, as well as an updated assessment
of equilibrium climate sensitivity (Box SPM.1). Changes relative to 1850–1900 based on 20-year averaging
periods are calculated by adding 0.85°C (the observed global surface temperature increase from 1850–1900 to
1995–2014) to simulated changes relative to 1995–2014.
Very likely
ranges are shown for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-
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7.0 (WGI Figure SPM.8). Assessments were carried out at the global scale for (b), (c), (d) and (e). (b) The
Reasons for Concern (RFC) framework communicates scientific understanding about accrual of risk for five
broad categories. Diagrams are shown for each RFC, assuming low to no adaptation (i.e., adaptation is
fragmented, localized and comprises incremental adjustments to existing practices). However, the transition
to a very high risk level has an emphasis on irreversibility and adaptation limits. Undetectable risk level (white)
indicates no associated impacts are detectable and attributable to climate change; moderate risk (yellow)
indicates associated impacts are both detectable and attributable to climate change with at least
medium
confidence,
also accounting for the other specific criteria for key risks; high risk (red) indicates severe and
widespread impacts that are judged to be high on one or more criteria for assessing key risks; and very high
risk level (purple) indicates very high risk of severe impacts and the presence of significant irreversibility or
the persistence of climate-related hazards, combined with limited ability to adapt due to the nature of the
hazard or impacts/risks. The horizontal line denotes the present global warming of 1.09°C which is used to
separate the observed, past impacts below the line from the future projected risks above it. RFC1: Unique and
threatened systems: ecological and human systems that have restricted geographic ranges constrained by
climate-related conditions and have high endemism or other distinctive properties. Examples include coral
reefs, the Arctic and its Indigenous Peoples, mountain glaciers and biodiversity hotspots. RFC2: Extreme
weather events: risks/impacts to human health, livelihoods, assets and ecosystems from extreme weather
events such as heatwaves, heavy rain, drought and associated wildfires, and coastal flooding. RFC3:
Distribution of impacts: risks/impacts that disproportionately affect particular groups due to uneven
distribution of physical climate change hazards, exposure or vulnerability. RFC4: Global aggregate impacts:
impacts to socio-ecological systems that can be aggregated globally into a single metric, such as monetary
damages, lives affected, species lost or ecosystem degradation at a global scale. RFC5: Large-scale singular
events: relatively large, abrupt and sometimes irreversible changes in systems caused by global warming, such
as ice sheet disintegration or thermohaline circulation slowing. Assessment methods are described in SM16.6
and are identical to AR5, but are enhanced by a structured approach to improve robustness and facilitate
comparison between AR5 and AR6. Risks for (c) terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and (d) ocean
ecosystems. For c) and d), diagrams shown for each risk assume low to no adaptation. The transition to a very
high risk level has an emphasis on irreversibility and adaptation limits. (e) Climate-sensitive human health
outcomes under three scenarios of adaptation effectiveness. The assessed projections were based on a range
of scenarios, including SRES, CMIP5, and ISIMIP, and, in some cases, demographic trends. The diagrams are
truncated at the nearest whole ºC within the range of temperature change in 2100 under three SSP scenarios in
panel (a). (f) Examples of regional key risks. Risks identified are of at least
medium confidence
level. Key
risks are identified based on the magnitude of adverse consequences (pervasiveness of the consequences,
degree of change, irreversibility of consequences, potential for impact thresholds or tipping points, potential
for cascading effects beyond system boundaries); likelihood of adverse consequences; temporal characteristics
of the risk; and ability to respond to the risk, e.g., by adaptation. The full set of 127 assessed global and regional
key risks is given in SM16.7. Diagrams are provided for some risks. The development of synthetic diagrams
for Small Islands, Asia and Central and South America were limited by the availability of adequately
downscaled climate projections, with uncertainty in the direction of change, the diversity of climatologies and
socio-economic contexts across countries within a region, and the resulting low number of impact and risk
projections for different warming levels. Absence of risks diagrams does not imply absence of risks within a
region. (Box SPM.1) {16.5, 16.6, Figure 16.15, SM16.3, SM16.4, SM16.5, SM16.6 (methodologies), SM16.7,
Figure 2.11, Figure SM3.1, Figure 7.9, Figure 9.6, Figure 11.6, Figure 13.28, Figure CCP6.5, Figure CCP4.8,
Figure CCP4.10, Figure TS.4, WGI Figure SPM.8, WGI SPM A.1.2, Box SPM.1, WGI Ch. 2}
Complex, Compound and Cascading Risks
SPM.B.5
Climate change impacts and risks are becoming increasingly complex and more difficult to manage.
Multiple climate hazards will occur simultaneously, and multiple climatic and non-climatic risks will interact,
resulting in compounding overall risk and risks cascading across sectors and regions. Some responses to
climate change result in new impacts and risks. (high
confidence)
{1.3, 2.4, Box 2.2, Box 9.5, 11.5, 13.5, 14.6,
Box 15.1, CCP1.2, CCP2.2, CCB DISASTER, CCB INTERREG, CCB SRM, CCB COVID}
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SPM.B.5.1
Concurrent and repeated climate hazards occur in all regions, increasing impacts and risks to
health, ecosystems, infrastructure, livelihoods and food (high
confidence).
Multiple risks interact, generating
new sources of vulnerability to climate hazards, and compounding overall risk (high
confidence).
Increasing
concurrence of heat and drought events are causing crop production losses and tree mortality (high
confidence).
Above 1.5°C global warming increasing concurrent climate extremes will increase risk of simultaneous crop
losses of maize in major food-producing regions, with this risk increasing further with higher global warming
levels (medium
confidence).
Future sea level rise combined with storm surge and heavy rainfall will increase
compound flood risks (high
confidence).
Risks to health and food production will be made more severe from
the interaction of sudden food production losses from heat and drought, exacerbated by heat-induced labour
productivity losses (high
confidence).
These interacting impacts will increase food prices, reduce household
incomes, and lead to health risks of malnutrition and climate-related mortality with no or low levels of
adaptation, especially in tropical regions (high
confidence).
Risks to food safety from climate change will
further compound the risks to health by increasing food contamination of crops from mycotoxins and
contamination of seafood from harmful algal blooms, mycotoxins, and chemical contaminants (high
confidence).
{5.2, 5.4, 5.8, 5.9, 5.11, 5.12, 7.2, 7.3, 9.8, 9.11, 10.4, 11.3, 11.5, 12.3, 13.5, 14.5, 15.3, Box 15.1,
16.6, CCP1.2, CCP6.2, Figure TS10C, WG1 SPM A.3.1, A.3.2 and C.2.7}
SPM.B.5.2
Adverse impacts from climate hazards and resulting risks are cascading across sectors and regions
(high
confidence),
propagating impacts along coasts and urban centres (medium
confidence)
and in mountain
regions (high
confidence).
These hazards and cascading risks also trigger tipping points in sensitive ecosystems
and in significantly and rapidly changing social-ecological systems impacted by ice melt, permafrost thaw and
changing hydrology in polar regions (high
confidence).
Wildfires, in many regions, have affected ecosystems
and species, people and their built assets, economic activity, and health (medium
to high confidence).
In cities
and settlements, climate impacts to key infrastructure are leading to losses and damages across water and food
systems, and affect economic activity, with impacts extending beyond the area directly impacted by the climate
hazard (high
confidence).
In Amazonia, and in some mountain regions, cascading impacts from climatic (e.g.,
heat) and non-climatic stressors (e.g., land use change) will result in irreversible and severe losses of ecosystem
services and biodiversity at 2°C global warming level and beyond (medium
confidence).
Unavoidable sea level
rise will bring cascading and compounding impacts resulting in losses of coastal ecosystems and ecosystem
services, groundwater salinisation, flooding and damages to coastal infrastructure that cascade into risks to
livelihoods, settlements, health, well-being, food and water security, and cultural values in the near to long-
term (high
confidence).
(Figure SPM.3) {2.5, 3.4, 3.5, Box 7.3, Box 8.7, Box 9.4, Box 11.1, 11.5, 12.3, 13.9,
14.6, 15.3, 16.5, 16.6, CCP1.2, CCP2.2, CCP5.2, CCP5.3, CCP6.2, CCP6.3, Box CCP6.1, Box CCP6.2, CCB
EXTREMES, Figure TS.10, WGI SPM Figure SPM.8d}
SPM.B.5.3
Weather and climate extremes are causing economic and societal impacts across national
boundaries through supply-chains, markets, and natural resource flows, with increasing transboundary risks
projected across the water, energy and food sectors (high
confidence).
Supply chains that rely on specialized
commodities and key infrastructure can be disrupted by weather and climate extreme events. Climate change
causes the redistribution of marine fish stocks, increasing risk of transboundary management conflicts among
fisheries users, and negatively affecting equitable distribution of food provisioning services as fish stocks shift
from lower to higher latitude regions, thereby increasing the need for climate-informed transboundary
management and cooperation (high
confidence).
Precipitation and water availability changes increases the risk
of planned infrastructure projects, such as hydropower in some regions, having reduced productivity for food
and energy sectors including across countries that share river basins (medium
confidence).
{Figure TS.10e-f,
3.4, 3.5, 4.5, 5.8, 5.13, 6.2, 9.4, Box 9.5,14.5, Box 14.5, Box 14.6, CCP5.3, CCB EXTREMES, CCB MOVING
PLATE, CCB INTERREG, CCB DISASTER}
SPM B.5.4
Risks arise from some responses that are intended to reduce the risks of climate change, including
risks from maladaptation and adverse side effects of some emission reduction and carbon dioxide removal
measures (high
confidence).
Deployment of afforestation of naturally unforested land, or poorly implemented
bioenergy, with or without carbon capture and storage, can compound climate-related risks to biodiversity,
water and food security, and livelihoods, especially if implemented at large scales, especially in regions with
insecure land tenure (high
confidence).
{Box 2.2, 4.1, 4.7, 5.13, Table 5.18, Box 9.3, Box 13.2, CCB
NATURAL, CWGB BIOECONOMY}
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SPM B.5.5
Solar radiation modification approaches, if they were to be implemented, introduce a widespread
range of new risks to people and ecosystems, which are not well understood (high
confidence).
Solar radiation
modification approaches have potential to offset warming and ameliorate some climate hazards, but substantial
residual climate change or overcompensating change would occur at regional scales and seasonal timescales
(high
confidence).
Large uncertainties and knowledge gaps are associated with the potential of solar radiation
modification approaches to reduce climate change risks. Solar radiation modification would not stop
atmospheric CO
2
concentrations from increasing or reduce resulting ocean acidification under continued
anthropogenic emissions (high
confidence).
{XWGB SRM}
Impacts of Temporary Overshoot
SPM.B.6
If global warming transiently exceeds 1.5°C in the coming decades or later (overshoot)
37
, then many
human and natural systems will face additional severe risks, compared to remaining below 1.5°C (high
confidence).
Depending on the magnitude and duration of overshoot, some impacts will cause release of
additional greenhouse gases (medium
confidence)
and some will be irreversible, even if global warming is
reduced (high
confidence).
(Figure SPM.3) {2.5, 3.4, 12.3, 16.6, CCB SLR, CCB DEEP, Box SPM.1}
SPM.B.6.1
While model-based assessments of the impacts of overshoot pathways are limited, observations
and current understanding of processes permit assessment of impacts from overshoot. Additional warming,
e.g., above 1.5°C during an overshoot period this century, will result in irreversible impacts on certain
ecosystems with low resilience, such as polar, mountain, and coastal ecosystems, impacted by ice-sheet,
glacier melt, or by accelerating and higher committed sea level rise (high
confidence).
38
Risks to human
systems will increase, including those to infrastructure, low-lying coastal settlements, some ecosystem-based
adaptation measures, and associated livelihoods (high
confidence),
cultural and spiritual values (medium
confidence).
Projected impacts are less severe with shorter duration and lower levels of overshoot (medium
confidence).
{2.5, 3.4, 12.3, 13.2, 16.5, 16.6, CCP 1.2, CCP5.3, CCP6.1, CCP6.2, CCP2.2, CCB SLR, Box
TS4, SROCC 2.3, SROCC 5.4, WG1 SPM B5 and C3}
SPM.B.6.2
Risk of severe impacts increase with every additional increment of global warming during
overshoot (high
confidence).
In high-carbon ecosystems (currently storing 3,000 to 4,000 GtC)
39
such impacts
are already observed and are projected to increase with every additional increment of global warming, such as
increased wildfires, mass mortality of trees, drying of peatlands, and thawing of permafrost, weakening natural
land carbon sinks and increasing releases of greenhouse gases (medium
confidence).
The resulting contribution
to a potential amplification of global warming indicates that a return to a given global warming level or below
would be more challenging (medium
confidence).
{2.4, 2.5, CCP4.2, WG1 SPM B.4.3, SROCC 5.4}
SPM.C: Adaptation Measures and Enabling Conditions
Adaptation, in response to current climate change, is reducing climate risks and vulnerability mostly via
adjustment of existing systems. Many adaptation options exist and are used to help manage projected climate
change impacts, but their implementation depends upon the capacity and effectiveness of governance and
decision-making processes. These and other enabling conditions can also support Climate Resilient
Development (Section D).
Current Adaptation and its Benefits
In this report, overshoot pathways exceed 1.5°C global warming and then return to that level, or below, after several decades.
Despite limited evidence specifically on the impacts of a temporary overshoot of 1.5°C, a much broader evidence base from process
understanding and the impacts of higher global warming levels allows a high confidence statement on the irreversibility of some
impacts that would be incurred following such an overshoot.
39
At the global scale, terrestrial ecosystems currently remove more carbon from the atmosphere (-3.4 ± 0.9 Gt yr
-1
) than they emit
(+1.6 ± 0.7 Gt yr
-1
), a net sink of -1.9 ± 1.1 Gt yr
-1
. However, recent climate change has shifted some systems in some regions from
being net carbon sinks to net carbon sources.
38
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SPM.C.1
Progress in adaptation planning and implementation has been observed across all sectors and
regions, generating multiple benefits (very
high confidence).
However, adaptation progress is unevenly
distributed with observed adaptation gaps
40
(high
confidence).
Many initiatives prioritize immediate and near-
term climate risk reduction which reduces the opportunity for transformational adaptation (high
confidence).
{2.6, 5.14, 7.4, 10.4, 12.5, 13.11, 14.7, 16.3, 17.3, CCP5.2, CCP5.4}
SPM.C.1.1
Adaptation planning and implementation have continued to increase across all regions (very
high
confidence).
Growing public and political awareness of climate impacts and risks has resulted in at least 170
countries and many cities including adaptation in their climate policies and planning processes (high
confidence).
Decision support tools and climate services are increasingly being used (very
high confidence).
Pilot projects and local experiments are being implemented in different sectors (high
confidence).
Adaptation
can generate multiple additional benefits such as improving agricultural productivity, innovation, health and
well-being, food security, livelihood, and biodiversity conservation as well as reduction of risks and damages
(very
high confidence).
{1.4, CCB ADAPT, 2.6, CCB NATURE, 3.5, 3.6, 4.7, 4.8, 5.4, 5.6, 5.10, 6.4.2, 7.4,
8.5, 9.3, 9.6, 10.4, 12.5, 13.11, 15.5, 16.3, 17.2, 17.3, 17.5 CCP5.4}
SPM.C.1.2
Despite progress, adaptation gaps exist between current levels of adaptation and levels needed to
respond to impacts and reduce climate risks (high
confidence).
Most observed adaptation is fragmented, small
in scale, incremental, sector-specific, designed to respond to current impacts or near-term risks, and focused
more on planning rather than implementation (high
confidence).
Observed adaptation is unequally distributed
across regions
(high confidence),
and gaps are partially driven by widening disparities between the estimated
costs of adaptation and documented finance allocated to adaptation (high
confidence).
The largest adaptation
gaps exist among lower income population groups (high
confidence).
At current rates of adaptation planning
and implementation the adaptation gap will continue to grow (high
confidence).
As adaptation options often
have long implementation times, long-term planning and accelerated implementation, particularly in the next
decade, is important to close adaptation gaps, recognising that constraints remain for some regions (high
confidence).
{1.1, 1.4, 5.6, 6.3, Figure 6.4, 7.4, 8.3, 10.4, 11.3, 11.7, 15.2, Box 13.1, 13.11, 15.5, Box16.1,
Figure 16.4, Figure 16.5, 16.3, 16.5, 17.4, 18.2, CCP2.4, CCP5.4, CCB FINANCE, CCB SLR}
Adaptation gaps are defined as the difference between actually implemented adaptation and a societally set goal, determined largely
by preferences related to tolerated climate change impacts and reflecting resource limitations and competing priorities.
40
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Figure SPM.4: (a)
Climate responses and adaptation options, organized by System Transitions and Representative Key
Risks (RKRs), are assessed for their multidimensional feasibility at global scale, in the near term and up to 1.5°C global
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warming. As literature above 1.5°C is limited, feasibility at higher levels of warming may change, which is currently not
possible to assess robustly. Climate responses and adaptation options at global scale are drawn from a set of options
assessed in AR6 that have robust evidence across the feasibility dimensions. This figure shows the six feasibility
dimensions (economic, technological, institutional, social, environmental and geophysical) that are used to calculate the
potential feasibility of climate responses and adaptation options, along with their synergies with mitigation. For potential
feasibility and feasibility dimensions, the figure shows high, medium, or low feasibility. Synergies with mitigation are
identified as high, medium, and low. Insufficient evidence is denoted by a dash. {CCB FEASIB., Table SMCCB
FEASIB.1.1; SR1.5 4.SM.4.3}
Figure SPM.4: (b)
Climate responses and adaptation options, organized by System Transitions and Representative Key
Risks, are assessed at global scale for their likely ability to reduce risks for ecosystems and social groups at risk, as well
as their relation with the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Climate responses and adaptation options are
assessed for observed benefits (+) to ecosystems and their services, ethnic groups, gender equity, and low-income groups,
or observed dis-benefits (-) for these systems and groups. Where there is highly diverging evidence of benefits/ dis-
benefits across the scientific literature, e.g., based on differences between regions, it is shown as not clear or mixed (•).
Insufficient evidence is shown by a dash. The relation with the SDGs is assessed as having benefits (+), dis-benefits (-)
or not clear or mixed (•) based on the impacts of the climate response and adaptation option on each SDG. Areas not
coloured indicate there is no evidence of a relation or no interaction with the respective SDG. The climate responses and
adaptation options are drawn from two assessments. For comparability of climate responses and adaptation options see
Table SM17.5. {17.2, 17.5; CCB FEASIB}
Future Adaptation Options and their Feasibility
SPM.C.2
There are feasible
41
and effective
42
adaptation options which can reduce risks to people and nature.
The feasibility of implementing adaptation options in the near-term differs across sectors and regions (very
high confidence).
The effectiveness of adaptation to reduce climate risk is documented for specific contexts,
sectors and regions (high
confidence)
and will decrease with increasing warming (high
confidence).
Integrated,
multi-sectoral solutions that address social inequities, differentiate responses based on climate risk and cut
across systems, increase the feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation in multiple sectors (high
confidence).
(Figure SPM.4) {Figure TS.6e, 1.4, 3.6, 4.7, 5.12, 6.3, 7.4, 11.3, 11.7, 13.2, 15.5, 17.6, CCB FEASIB, CCP2.3}
Land, Ocean and Ecosystems Transition
SPM.C.2.1
Adaptation to water-related risks and impacts make up the majority of all documented adaptation
(high
confidence).
For inland flooding, combinations of non-structural measures like early warning systems
and structural measures like levees have reduced loss of lives (medium
confidence).
Enhancing natural water
retention such as by restoring wetlands and rivers, land use planning such as no build zones or upstream forest
management, can further reduce flood risk (medium
confidence).
On-farm water management, water storage,
soil moisture conservation and irrigation are some of the most common adaptation responses and
provide economic, institutional or ecological benefits and reduce vulnerability (high
confidence).
Irrigation is
effective in reducing drought risk and climate impacts in many regions and has several livelihood benefits, but
needs appropriate management to avoid potential adverse outcomes, which can include accelerated depletion
of groundwater and other water sources and increased soil salinization (medium
confidence).
Large scale
irrigation can also alter local to regional temperature and precipitation patterns (high
confidence),
including
both alleviating and exacerbating temperature extremes (medium
confidence).
The effectiveness of most water-
related adaptation options to reduce projected risks declines with increasing warming (high
confidence).
{4.1,
In this report, feasibility refers to the potential for a mitigation or adaptation option to be implemented. Factors influencing feasibility
are context-dependent, temporally dynamic, and may vary between different groups and actors. Feasibility depends on geophysical,
environmental-ecological, technological, economic, socio-cultural and institutional factors that enable or constrain the implementation
of an option. The feasibility of options may change when different options are combined and increase when enabling conditions are
strengthened.
42
Effectiveness refers to the extent to which an adaptation option is anticipated or observed to reduce climate-related risk.
41
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4.6, 4.7, Box 4.3, Box 4.6, Box 4.7, Figure 4.28, Figure 4.29, Table 4.9, 9.3, 9.7, 11.3, 12.5, 13.1, 13.2, 16.3,
CCP5.4, Figure 4.22}
SPM.C.2.2
Effective adaptation options, together with supportive public policies enhance food availability
and stability and reduce climate risk for food systems while increasing their sustainability (medium
confidence).
Effective options include cultivar improvements, agroforestry, community-based adaptation,
farm and landscape diversification, and urban agriculture (high
confidence).
Institutional feasibility,
adaptation limits of crops and cost effectiveness also influence the effectiveness of the adaptation options
(limited
evidence, medium agreement).
Agroecological principles and practices, ecosystem-based
management in fisheries and aquaculture, and other approaches that work with natural processes support food
security, nutrition, health and well-being, livelihoods and biodiversity, sustainability and ecosystem services
(high
confidence).
These services include pest control, pollination, buffering of temperature extremes, and
carbon sequestration and storage (high
confidence).
Trade-offs and barriers associated with such approaches
include costs of establishment, access to inputs and viable markets, new knowledge and management (high
confidence)
and their potential effectiveness varies by socio-economic context, ecosystem zone, species
combinations and institutional support (medium
confidence).
Integrated, multi-sectoral solutions that address
social inequities and differentiate responses based on climate risk and local situation will enhance food security
and nutrition (high
confidence).
Adaptation strategies which reduce food loss and waste or support balanced
diets
33
(as described in the IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land) contribute to nutrition, health,
biodiversity and other environmental benefits (high
confidence).
{3.2, 4.7, 4.6, Box 4.3, 5.4, 5.5, 5.6, 5.8, 5.9,
5.10, 5.11, 5.12, 5.13, 5.14, 7.4, Box 5.10, Box 5.13, 6.3, 10.4, 12.5, 13.5, 13.10, 14.5, CWGB
BIOECONOMY, CCB MOVING PLATE, CCB NATURAL, CCB FEASIB, CCP5.4, CCB HEALTH}
SPM.C.2.3
Adaptation for natural forests
43
includes conservation, protection and restoration measures. In
managed forests
44
, adaptation options include sustainable forest management, diversifying and adjusting tree
species compositions to build resilience, and managing increased risks from pests and diseases and wildfires.
Restoring natural forests and drained peatlands and improving sustainability of managed forests, generally
enhances the resilience of carbon stocks and sinks. Cooperation, and inclusive decision making, with local
communities and Indigenous Peoples, as well as recognition of inherent rights of Indigenous Peoples, is
integral to successful forest adaptation in many areas. (high
confidence)
{2.6, Box 2.2, CCB NATURAL, CCB
FEASIB, CCB INDIG, 5.6, 5.13, 11.4, 12.5, 13.5, Box 14.1, Box 14.2, Table 5.23, Box CCP7.1, CCP7.5}.
SPM.C.2.4
Conservation, protection and restoration of terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and ocean ecosystems,
together with targeted management to adapt to unavoidable impacts of climate change, reduces the
vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change (high
confidence).
The resilience of species, biological
communities and ecosystem processes increases with size of natural area, by restoration of degraded areas and
by reducing non-climatic stressors (high
confidence).
To be effective, conservation and restoration actions will
increasingly need to be responsive, as appropriate, to ongoing changes at various scales, and plan for future
changes in ecosystem structure, community composition and species’ distributions, especially as 1.5°C global
warming is approached and even more so if it is exceeded (high
confidence).
Adaptation options, where
circumstances allow, include facilitating the movement of species to new ecologically appropriate locations,
particularly through increasing connectivity between conserved or protected areas, targeted intensive
management for vulnerable species and protecting refugial areas where species can survive locally (medium
confidence).
{2.3, Figure 2.1, 2,6, Table 2.6, 2.6, 3.6, Box 3.4, 4.6, Box 11.2, 12.3, 12.5, 3.3, 13.4, 14.7, Box
4.6, CCP5.4, CCB FEASIB}
SPM.C.2.5
Effective Ecosystem-based Adaptation
44
reduces a range of climate change risks to people,
biodiversity and ecosystem services with multiple co-benefits (high
confidence).
Ecosystem-based Adaptation
In this report, the term natural forests describes those which are subject to little or no direct human intervention, whereas the term
managed forests describes those where planting or other management activities take place, including those managed for commodity
production.
44
Ecosystem based Adaptation (EbA) is recognised internationally under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD14/5). A related
concept is Nature-based Solutions (NbS), which includes a broader range of approaches with safeguards, including those that contribute
to adaptation and mitigation. The term ‘Nature-based Solutions’ is widely but not universally used in the scientific literature. The term
is the subject of ongoing debate, with concerns that it may lead to the misunderstanding that NbS on its own can provide a global
solution to climate change.
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is vulnerable to climate change impacts, with effectiveness declining with increasing global warming (high
confidence).
Urban greening using trees and other vegetation can provide local cooling (very
high
confidence).
Natural river systems, wetlands and upstream forest ecosystems reduce flood risk by storing water
and slowing water flow, in most circumstances (high
confidence).
Coastal wetlands protect against coastal
erosion and flooding associated with storms and sea level rise where sufficient space and adequate habitats are
available until rates of sea level rise exceeds natural adaptive capacity to build sediment (very
high confidence).
{2.4, 2.5, 2.6, Table 2.7, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6, Figure 3.26, 4.6, Box 4.6, Box 4.7, 5.5, 5.14, Box 5.11, 6.3, 6.4, Figure
6.6, 7.4, 8.5, 8.6, 9.6, 9.8, 9.9, 10.2, 11.3, 12.5, 13.3, 13.4, 13.5, 14.5, Box 14.7, 16.3, 18.3, CCB HEALTH,
CCB NATURAL, CCB MOVING PLATE, CCB FEASIB.3, CWGB BIOECONOMY, CCP5.4}
Urban, Rural and Infrastructure Transition
SPM.C.2.6
Considering climate change impacts and risks in the design and planning of urban and rural
settlements and infrastructure is critical for resilience and enhancing human well-being (high
confidence).
The
urgent provision of basic services, infrastructure, livelihood diversification and employment, strengthening of
local and regional food systems and community-based adaptation enhance lives and livelihoods, particularly
of low-income and marginalised groups (high
confidence).
Inclusive, integrated and long-term planning at
local, municipal, sub-national and national scales, together with effective regulation and monitoring systems
and financial and technological resources and capabilities foster urban and rural system transition (high
confidence).
Effective partnerships between governments, civil society, and private sector organizations,
across scales provide infrastructure and services in ways that enhance the adaptive capacity of vulnerable
people (medium
to high confidence).
{5.12, 5.13, 5.14, Box 6.3, 6.3, 6.4, Box 6.6, Table 6.6, 7.4, 12.5, 13.6,
14.5, Box14.4, Box17.4, CCB FEASIB, CCP2.3, CCP2.4, CCP5.4}
SPM.C.2.7
An increasing number of adaptation responses exist for urban systems, but their feasibility and
effectiveness is constrained by institutional, financial, and technological access and capacity, and depends on
coordinated and contextually appropriate responses across physical, natural and social infrastructure (high
confidence).
Globally, more financing is directed at physical infrastructure than natural and social
infrastructure (medium
confidence)
and there is
limited evidence
of investment in the informal settlements
hosting the most vulnerable urban residents (medium to
high confidence).
Ecosystem-based adaptation (e.g.,
urban agriculture and forestry, river restoration) has increasingly been applied in urban areas (high
confidence).
Combined ecosystem-based and structural adaptation responses are being developed, and there is growing
evidence of their potential to reduce adaptation costs and contribute to flood control, sanitation, water
resources management, landslide prevention and coastal protection (medium
confidence).
{3.6, Box 4.6, 5.12,
6.3, 6.4, Table 6.8, 7.4, 9.7, 9.9, 10.4, Table 10.3, 11.3, 11.7, Box 11.6, 12.5, 13.2, 13.3, 13.6, 14.5, 15.5, 17.2,
Box 17.4, CCB FEASIB, CCP2.3, CCP 3.2, CCP5.4, CCB SLR, SROCC ES}
SPM C.2.8:
Sea level rise poses a distinctive and severe adaptation challenge as it implies dealing with slow
onset changes and increased frequency and magnitude of extreme sea level events which will escalate in the
coming decades (high
confidence).
Such adaptation challenges would occur much earlier under high rates of
sea level rise, in particular if low-likelihood, high impact outcomes associated with collapsing ice sheets occur
(high
confidence).
Responses to ongoing sea level rise and land subsidence in low-lying coastal cities and
settlements and small islands include protection, accommodation, advance and planned relocation (high
confidence)
45
. These responses are more effective if combined and/or sequenced, planned well ahead, aligned
with sociocultural values and development priorities, and underpinned by inclusive community engagement
processes (high
confidence).
{CCB SLR, CCP2.3, 6.2, 10.4, 11.7, Box 11.6, 13.2.2, 14.5.9.2, 15.5, SROCC
ES: C3.2, WGI SPM B5, C3}
SPM.C.2.9
Approximately 3.4 billion people globally live in rural areas around the world, and many are highly
vulnerable to climate change. Integrating climate adaptation into social protection programs, including cash
transfers and public works programmes, is highly feasible and increases resilience to climate change,
especially when supported by basic services and infrastructure. Social safety nets are increasingly being
reconfigured to build adaptive capacities of the most vulnerable in rural and also urban communities. Social
The term ‘response’ is used here instead of adaptation because some responses, such as retreat, may or may not be considered to be
adaptation.
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safety nets that support climate change adaptation have strong co-benefits with development goals such as
education, poverty alleviation, gender inclusion and food security. (high
confidence)
{5.14, 9.4, 9.10, 9.11,
12.5, 14.5, CCB GENDER, CCB FEASIB, CCP5.4}
Energy System Transition
SPM.C.2.10
Within energy system transitions, the most feasible adaptation options support infrastructure
resilience, reliable power systems and efficient water use for existing and new energy generation systems (very
high confidence).
Energy generation diversification, including with renewable energy resources and generation
that can be decentralised depending on context (e.g., wind, solar, small scale hydroelectric) and demand side
management (e.g., storage, and energy efficiency improvements) can reduce vulnerabilities to climate change,
especially in rural populations (high
confidence).
Adaptations for hydropower and thermo-electric power
generation are effective in most regions up to 1.5°C to 2°C, with decreasing effectiveness at higher levels of
warming (medium
confidence).
Climate responsive energy markets, updated design standards on energy assets
according to current and projected climate change, smart-grid technologies, robust transmission systems and
improved capacity to respond to supply deficits have high feasibility in the medium- to long-term, with
mitigation co-benefits (very
high confidence).
{4.6, 4.7, Figure 4.28, Figure 4.29, 10.4, Table 11.8, Figure
13.19, Figure 13.16, 13.6, 18.3, CCB FEASIB, CWGB BIOECONOMY, CCP5.2, CCP5.4}
Cross-cutting Options
SPM.C.2.11
Strengthening the climate resiliency of health systems will protect and promote human health
and wellbeing (high
confidence).
There are multiple opportunities for targeted investments and finance to
protect against exposure to climate hazards, particularly for those at highest risk. Heat Health Action Plans
that include early warning and response systems are effective adaptation options for extreme heat (high
confidence).
Effective adaptation options for water-borne and food-borne diseases include improving access
to potable water, reducing exposure of water and sanitation systems to flooding and extreme weather events,
and improved early warning systems (very
high confidence).
For vector-borne diseases, effective adaptation
options include surveillance, early warning systems, and vaccine development (very
high confidence).
Effective adaptation options for reducing mental health risks under climate change include improving
surveillance, access to mental health care, and monitoring of psychosocial impacts from extreme weather
events (high
confidence).
Health and well-being would benefit from integrated adaptation approaches that
mainstream health into food, livelihoods, social protection, infrastructure, water and sanitation policies
requiring collaboration and coordination at all scales of governance (very
high confidence).
{5.12, 6.3, 7.4,
9.10, Box 9.7, 11.3, 12.5, 13.7, 14.5, CCB FEASIB, CCB ILLNESS, CCB COVID}.
SPM.C.2.12
Increasing adaptive capacities minimises the negative impacts of climate-related displacement
and involuntary migration for migrants and sending and receiving areas (high
confidence).
This improves the
degree of choice under which migration decisions are made, ensuring safe and orderly movements of people
within and between countries (high
confidence).
Some development reduces underlying vulnerabilities
associated with conflict, and adaptation contributes by reducing the impacts of climate change on climate
sensitive drivers of conflict (high
confidence).
Risks to peace are reduced, for example, by supporting people
in climate-sensitive economic activities (medium
confidence)
and advancing women’s empowerment (high
confidence).
{7.4, 12.5, CCB MIGRATE, Box 9.8, Box 10.2, CCB FEASIB}
SPM.C.2.13
There are a range of adaptation options, such as disaster risk management, early warning systems,
climate services and risk spreading and sharing that have broad applicability across sectors and provide greater
benefits to other adaptation options when combined (high
confidence).
For example, climate services that are
inclusive of different users and providers can improve agricultural practices, inform better water use and
efficiency, and enable resilient infrastructure planning (high
confidence).
{2.6, 3.6, 4.7, 5.4, 5.5, 5.6, 5.8, 5.9,
5.12, 5.14, 9.4, 9.8, 10.4, 12.5, 13.11, CCB MOVING PLATE, CCB FEASIB, CCP5.4}
Limits to Adaptation
SPM.C.3
Soft limits to some human adaptation have been reached, but can be overcome by addressing a range
of constraints, primarily financial, governance, institutional and policy constraints (high
confidence).
Hard
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limits to adaptation have been reached in some ecosystems (high
confidence).
With increasing global warming,
losses and damages will increase and additional human and natural systems will reach adaptation limits (high
confidence).
{Figure TS.7, 1.4, 2.4, 2.5, 2.6, CCB SLR, 3.4, 3.6, 4.7, Figure 4.30, 5.5, Table 8.6, Box 10.7,
11.7, Table 11.16, 12.5 13.2, 13.5, 13.6, 13.10, 13.11, Figure 13.21, 14.5, 15.6, 16.4, Figure 16.8, Table 16.3,
Table 16.4, CCP1.2, CCP1.3, CCP2.3, CCP3.3, CCP5.2, CCP5.4, CCP6.3, CCP7.3}
SPM.C.3.1
Soft limits to some human adaptation have been reached, but can be overcome by addressing a
range of constraints, which primarily consist of financial, governance, institutional and policy constraints (high
confidence).
For example, individuals and households in low lying coastal areas in Australasia and Small
Islands and smallholder farmers in Central and South America, Africa, Europe and Asia have reached soft
limits (medium
confidence).
Inequity and poverty also constrain adaptation, leading to soft limits and resulting
in disproportionate exposure and impacts for most vulnerable groups (high
confidence).
Lack of climate
literacy
46
at all levels and limited availability of information and data pose further constraints to adaptation
planning and implementation (medium
confidence).
{1.4, 4.7, 5.4, Table 8.6, 8.4, 9.1, 9.4, 9.5, 9.8, 11.7, 12.5
13.5, 15.3, 15.5, 15.6, 16.4, Figure 16.8, 16.4, Box 16.1, CCP5.2, CCP5.4, CCP6.3}
SPM.C.3.2
Financial constraints are important determinants of soft limits to adaptation across sectors and all
regions (high
confidence).
Although global tracked climate finance has shown an upward trend since AR5,
current global financial flows for adaptation, including from public and private finance sources, are insufficient
for and constrain implementation of adaptation options especially in developing countries (high
confidence).
The overwhelming majority of global tracked climate finance was targeted to mitigation while a small
proportion was targeted to adaptation (very
high confidence).
Adaptation finance has come predominantly
from public sources (very
high confidence).
Adverse climate impacts can reduce the availability of financial
resources by incurring losses and damages and through impeding national economic growth, thereby further
increasing financial constraints for adaptation, particularly for developing and least developed countries
(medium
confidence).
{1.4, 2.6, 3.6, 4.7, Figure 4.30, 5.14, 7.4, Table 8.6, 8.4, 9.4, 9.9, 9.11, 10.5, 12.5, 13.3,
13.11, Box 14.4, 15.6, 16.2, 16.4, Figure 16.8, Table 16.4, 17.4, 18.1, CCB FINANCE, CCP2.4, CCP5.4,
CCP6.3, Figure TS 7}
SPM.C.3.3
Many natural systems are near the hard limits of their natural adaptation capacity and additional
systems will reach limits with increasing global warming (high
confidence).
Ecosystems already reaching or
surpassing hard adaptation limits include some warm water coral reefs, some coastal wetlands, some
rainforests, and some polar and mountain ecosystems (high
confidence).
Above 1.5°C global warming level,
some ecosystem-based adaptation measures will lose their effectiveness in providing benefits to people as
these ecosystems will reach hard adaptation limits (high
confidence).
{1.4, 2.4, 2.6, 3.4, 3.6, CCB SLR, 9.6,
Box11.2, 13.4, 14.5, 15.5, 16.4, 16.6, 17.2, CCP1.2, CCP5.2, CCP6.3, CCP7.3, Figure SPM.4}
SPM.3.4
In human systems, some coastal settlements face soft adaptation limits due to technical and financial
difficulties of implementing coastal protection (high
confidence).
Above 1.5°C global warming level, limited
freshwater resources pose potential hard limits for Small Islands and for regions dependent on glacier and
snow-melt (medium
confidence).
By 2°C global warming level, soft limits are projected for multiple staple
crops in many growing areas, particularly in tropical regions (high
confidence).
By 3°C global warming level,
soft limits are projected for some water management measures for many regions, with hard limits projected
for parts of Europe (medium
confidence).
Transitioning from incremental to transformational adaptation can
help overcome soft adaptation limits (high
confidence).
{1.4, 4.7, 5.4, 5.8, 7.2, 7.3, 8.4, Table 8.6, 9.8, 10.4,
12.5, 13.2, 13.6, 16.4, 17.2, CCB SLR, CCP1.3. Box CCP1.1, CCP2.3, CCP3.3, CCP4.4, CCP5.3}
SPM.C.3.5
Adaptation does not prevent all losses and damages, even with effective adaptation and before
reaching soft and hard limits. Losses and damages are unequally distributed across systems, regions and sectors
and are not comprehensively addressed by current financial, governance and institutional arrangements,
particularly in vulnerable developing countries. With increasing global warming, losses and damages increase
and become increasingly difficult to avoid, while strongly concentrated among the poorest vulnerable
46
Climate literacy encompasses being aware of climate change, its anthropogenic causes and implications.
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populations. (high
confidence)
{1.4, 2.6, 3.4, 3.6, 6.3, Figure 6.4, 8.4, 13.7, 13.2, 13.10, 17.2, CCB LOSS,
CCB SLR, CCP2.3, CCP4.4, CWGB ECONOMIC}
Avoiding Maladaptation
SPM.C.4
There is increased evidence of maladaptation
15
across many sectors and regions since the AR5.
Maladaptive responses to climate change can create lock-ins of vulnerability, exposure and risks that are
difficult and expensive to change and exacerbate existing inequalities. Maladaptation can be avoided by
flexible, multi-sectoral, inclusive and long-term planning and implementation of adaptation actions with
benefits to many sectors and systems. (high
confidence)
{1.3, 1.4, 2.6., Box 2.2, 3.2, 3.6, Box 4.3, Box 4.5,
4.6, 4.7, Figure 4.29, 5.6, 5.13, 8.2, 8.3, 8.4, 8.6, 9.6, 9.7, 9.8, 9.9, 9.10, 9.11, Box 9.5, Box 9.8, Box 9.9, Box
11.6, 13.11, 13.3, 13.4, 13.5, 14.5, 15.5, 15.6, 16.3, 17.3, 17.4, 17.6, 17.2, 17.5, CCP5.4, CCB NATURAL,
CCB SLR, CCB DEEP, CWGB BIOECONOMY, CCP2.3, CCP2.3}
SPM.C.4.1
Actions that focus on sectors and risks in isolation and on short-term gains often lead to
maladaptation if long-term impacts of the adaptation option and long-term adaptation commitment are not
taken into account (high
confidence).
The implementation of these maladaptive actions can result in
infrastructure and institutions that are inflexible and/or expensive to change (high
confidence).
For example,
seawalls effectively reduce impacts to people and assets in the short-term but can also result in lock-ins and
increase exposure to climate risks in the long-term unless they are integrated into a long-term adaptive plan
(high
confidence).
Adaptation integrated with development reduces lock-ins and creates opportunities (e.g.,
infrastructure upgrading) (medium
confidence).
{1.4, 3.4, 3.6, 10.4, 11.7, Box 11.6, 13.2, 17.2, 17.5, 17.6, CCP
2.3, CCB SLR, CCB DEEP}
SPM.C.4.2
Biodiversity and ecosystem resilience to climate change are decreased by maladaptive actions,
which also constrain ecosystem services. Examples of these maladaptive actions for ecosystems include fire
suppression in naturally fire-adapted ecosystems or hard defences against flooding. These actions reduce space
for natural processes and represent a severe form of maladaptation for the ecosystems they degrade, replace
or fragment, thereby reducing their resilience to climate change and the ability to provide ecosystem services
for adaptation. Considering biodiversity and autonomous adaptation in long-term planning processes reduces
the risk of maladaptation. (high
confidence)
{2.4, 2.6, Table 2.7, 3.4, 3.6, 4.7, 5.6, 5.13, Table 5.21, 5.13, Box
13.2, 17.2, 17.5, Table 5.23, Box 11.2, 13.2, CCP5.4}
SPM.C.4.3
Maladaptation especially affects marginalised and vulnerable groups adversely (e.g., Indigenous
Peoples, ethnic minorities, low-income households, informal settlements), reinforcing and entrenching
existing inequities. Adaptation planning and implementation that do not consider adverse outcomes for
different groups can lead to maladaptation, increasing exposure to risks, marginalising people from certain
socio-economic or livelihood groups, and exacerbating inequity. Inclusive planning initiatives informed by
cultural values, Indigenous knowledge, local knowledge, and scientific knowledge can help prevent
maladaptation. (high
confidence)
(Figure SPM.4) {2.6, 3.6, 4.3, 4.6, 4.8, 5.12, 5.13, 5.14, 6.1, Box 7.1, 8.4,
11.4, 12.5, Box 13.2, 14.4, Box 14.1, 17.2, 17.5, 18.2, 17.2., CCP2.4}
SPM.C.4.4
To minimize maladaptation, multi-sectoral, multi-actor and inclusive planning with flexible
pathways encourages low-regret
47
and timely actions that keep options open, ensure benefits in multiple sectors
and systems and indicate the available solution space for adapting to long-term climate change (very
high
confidence).
Maladaptation is also minimized by planning that accounts for the time it takes to adapt (high
confidence),
the uncertainty about the rate and magnitude of climate risk (medium
confidence)
and a wide
range of potentially adverse consequences of adaptation actions (high
confidence).
{1.4, 3.6, 5.12, 5.13, 5.14,
11.6, 11.7, 17.3, 17.6, CCP2.3, CCP2.4, CCB SLR, CCB DEEP; CCP5.4}
From AR5, an option
that would generate net social and/or economic benefits under current climate change and a range of future
climate change scenarios,
and represent one example of robust strategies.
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Enabling Conditions
SPM.C.5
Enabling conditions are key for implementing, accelerating and sustaining adaptation in human
systems and ecosystems. These include political commitment and follow-through, institutional frameworks,
policies and instruments with clear goals and priorities, enhanced knowledge on impacts and solutions,
mobilization of and access to adequate financial resources, monitoring and evaluation, and inclusive
governance processes. (high
confidence)
{1.4, 2.6, 3.6, 4.8, 6.4, 7.4, 8.5, 9.4, 10.5, 11.4, 11.7, 12.5, 13.11,
14.7, 15.6, 17.4, 18.4, CCB INDIG, CCB FINANCE, CCP2.4, CCP5.4}
SPM.C.5.1
Political commitment and follow-through across all levels of government accelerate the
implementation of adaptation actions (high
confidence).
Implementing actions can require large upfront
investments of human, financial and technological resources (high
confidence),
whilst some benefits could
only become visible in the next decade or beyond (medium
confidence).
Accelerating commitment and follow-
through is promoted by rising public awareness, building business cases for adaptation, accountability and
transparency mechanisms, monitoring and evaluation of adaptation progress, social movements, and climate-
related litigation in some regions (medium
confidence).
{3.6, 4.8, 5.8, 6.4, 8.5, 9.4, 11.7, 12.5, 13.11, 17.4,
17.5, 18.4, CCB COVID, CCP2.4}
SPM.C.5.2
Institutional frameworks, policies and instruments that set clear adaptation goals and define
responsibilities and commitments and that are coordinated amongst actors and governance levels, strengthen
and sustain adaptation actions (very
high confidence).
Sustained adaptation actions are strengthened by
mainstreaming adaptation into institutional budget and policy planning cycles, statutory planning, monitoring
and evaluation frameworks and into recovery efforts from disaster events (high
confidence).
Instruments that
incorporate adaptation such as policy and legal frameworks, behavioural incentives, and economic instruments
that address market failures, such as climate risk disclosure, inclusive and deliberative processes strengthen
adaptation actions by public and private actors (medium
confidence).
{1.4, 3.6, 4.8, 5.14, 6.3, 6.4, 7.4, 9.4,
10.4, 11.7, Box 11.6, Table 11.17, 13.10, 13.11, 14.7, 15.6, 17.3, 17.4, 17.5, 17.6, 18.4, CCB DEEP, CCP2.4,
CCP5.4, CCP6.3}
SPM.C.5.3
Enhancing knowledge on risks, impacts, and their consequences, and available adaptation options
promotes societal and policy responses (high
confidence).
A wide range of top-down, bottom-up and co-
produced processes and sources can deepen climate knowledge and sharing, including capacity building at all
scales, educational and information programmes, using the arts, participatory modelling and climate services,
Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge and citizen science (high
confidence).
These measures can
facilitate awareness, heighten risk perception and influence behaviours (high
confidence).
{1.3, 3.6, 4.8, 5.9,
5.14, 6.4, Table 6.8, 7.4, 9.4, 10.5, 11.1, 11.7, 12.5, 13.9, 13.11, 14.3, 15.6, 15.6, 17.4, 18.4, CCB INDIG,
CCP2.4.1}.
SPMC.5.4
With adaptation finance needs estimated to be higher than those presented in AR5, enhanced
mobilization of and access to financial resources are essential for implementation of adaptation and to reduce
adaptation gaps (high
confidence).
Building capacity and removing some barriers to accessing finance is
fundamental to accelerate adaptation, especially for vulnerable groups, regions and sectors (high
confidence).
Public and private finance instruments include inter alia grants, guarantee, equity, concessional debt, market
debt, and internal budget allocation as well as savings in households and insurance. Public finance is an
important enabler of adaptation (high
confidence).
Public mechanisms and finance can leverage private sector
finance for adaptation by addressing real and perceived regulatory, cost and market barriers, for example via
public-private partnerships (high
confidence).
Financial and technological resources enable effective and
ongoing implementation of adaptation, especially when supported by institutions with a strong understanding
of adaptation needs and capacity (high
confidence).
{4.8, 5.14, 6.4, Table 6.10, 7.4, 9.4, Table 11.17, 12.5,
13.11, 15.6, 17.4, 18.4, BOX 18.9, CCP5.4, CCB FINANCE}.
SPM.C.5.5
Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of adaptation are critical for tracking progress and enabling
effective adaptation (high
confidence).
M&E implementation is currently limited (high
confidence)
but has
increased since AR5 at local and national levels. Although most of the monitoring of adaptation is focused
towards planning and implementation, the monitoring of outcomes is critical for tracking the effectiveness and
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progress of adaptation
(high confidence).
M&E facilitates learning on successful and effective adaptation
measures, and signals when and where additional action may be needed. M&E systems are most effective
when supported by capacities and resources and embedded in enabling governance systems (high
confidence).
{1.4, 2.6, 6.4, 7.4, 11.7, 11.8, 13.2, 13.11, 17.5, 18.4, CCB PROGRESS, CCB NATURAL, CCB ILLNESS,
CCB DEEP, CCP2.4}.
SPM.C.5.6
Inclusive governance that prioritises equity and justice in adaptation planning and implementation
leads to more effective and sustainable adaptation outcomes (high
confidence).
Vulnerabilities and climate
risks are often reduced through carefully designed and implemented laws, policies, processes, and
interventions that address context specific inequities such as based on gender, ethnicity, disability, age,
location and income (high
confidence).
These approaches, which include multi-stakeholder co-learning
platforms, transboundary collaborations, community-based adaptation and participatory scenario planning,
focus on capacity-building, and meaningful participation of the most vulnerable and marginalised groups, and
their access to key resources to adapt (high
confidence).
{1.4, 2.6, 3.6, 4.8, 5.4, 5.8, 5.9, 5.13, 6.4, 7.4, 8.5,
11.8, 12.5, 13.11, 14.7, 15.5, 15.7, 17.3, 17.5, 18.4, CCB HEALTH, CCB GENDER, CCB INDIG, CCP2.4,
CCP5.4, CCP6.4}
SPM.D: Climate Resilient Development
Climate Resilient Development integrates adaptation measures and their enabling conditions (Section C) with
mitigation to advance sustainable development for all. Climate resilient development involves questions of
equity and system transitions in land, ocean and ecosystems; urban and infrastructure; energy; industry; and
society and includes adaptations for human, ecosystem and planetary health. Pursuing climate resilient
development focuses on both where people and ecosystems are co-located as well as the protection and
maintenance of ecosystem function at the planetary scale. Pathways for advancing climate resilient
development are development trajectories that successfully integrate mitigation and adaptation actions to
advance sustainable development. Climate resilient development pathways may be temporarily coincident
with any RCP and SSP scenario used throughout AR6, but do not follow any particular scenario in all places
and over all time.
Conditions for Climate Resilient Development
SPM.D.1
Evidence of observed impacts, projected risks, levels and trends in vulnerability, and adaptation
limits, demonstrate that worldwide climate resilient development action is more urgent than previously
assessed in AR5. Comprehensive, effective, and innovative responses can harness synergies and reduce trade-
offs between adaptation and mitigation to advance sustainable development. (very
high confidence)
{2.6, 3.4,
3.6, 4.2, 4.6, 7.2, 7.4, 8.3, 8.4, 9.3, 10.6, 13.3, 13.8, 13.10, 14.7, 17.2, 18.3, Figure 18.1, Table 18.5, Box 18.1}
SPM.D.1.1
There is a rapidly narrowing window of opportunity to enable climate resilient development.
Multiple climate resilient development pathways are still possible by which communities, the private sector,
governments, nations and the world can pursue climate resilient development – each involving and resulting
from different societal choices influenced by different contexts and opportunities and constraints on system
transitions. Climate resilient development pathways are progressively constrained by every increment of
warming, in particular beyond 1.5°C, social and economic inequalities, the balance between adaptation and
mitigation varying by national, regional and local circumstances and geographies, according to capabilities
including resources, vulnerability, culture and values, past development choices leading to past emissions and
future warming scenarios, bounding the climate resilient development pathways remaining, and the ways in
which development trajectories are shaped by equity, and social and climate justice. (very
high confidence)
{2.6, 4.7, 4.8, 5.14, 6.4, 7.4, 8.3, 9.4, 9.3, 9.4, 9.5, 10.6, 11.8, 12.5, 13.10, 14.7, 15.3, 18.5, CCP2.3, CCP3.4,
CCP4.4, CCP5.3, CCP5.4, Table CCP5.2, CCP6.3, CCP7.5, Figure TS14.d}
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SPM.D.1.2
Opportunities for climate resilient development are not equitably distributed around the world
(very
high confidence).
Climate impacts and risks exacerbate vulnerability and social and economic
inequities and consequently increase persistent and acute development challenges, especially in developing
regions and sub-regions, and in particularly exposed sites, including coasts, small islands, deserts, mountains
and polar regions. This in turn undermines efforts to achieve sustainable development, particularly for
vulnerable and marginalized communities (very
high confidence).
{2.5, 4.4, 4.7, 6.3, 9.4, Box 6.4, Figure 6.5,
Table 18.5, CWGB URBAN, CCB HEALTH, CCP2.2, CCP3.2, CCP3.3, CCP5.4, CCP6.2}
SPM.D.1.3
Embedding effective and equitable adaptation and mitigation in development planning can reduce
vulnerability, conserve and restore ecosystems, and enable climate resilient development. This is especially
challenging in localities with persistent development gaps and limited resources (high
confidence).
Dynamic
trade-offs and competing priorities exist between mitigation, adaptation, and development. Integrated and
inclusive system-oriented solutions based on equity and social and climate justice reduce risks and enable
climate resilient development (high
confidence).
{1.4, 2.6, 3.6, 4.7, 4.8, Box 4.5, Box 4.8, 5.13, 7.4, 8.5, 9.4,
10.6, Box 9.3, Box 2.2, 12.5, 12.6, 13.3, 13.4, 13.10, 13.11, 14.7, 18.4, CCB HEALTH, SRCCL, CCB DEEP,
CCP2, CCP5.4}
Figure SPM.5:
Climate resilient development (CRD) is the process of implementing greenhouse gas mitigation and
adaptation measures to support sustainable development. This figure builds on Figure SPM.9 in AR5 WGII (depicting
climate resilient pathways) by describing how CRD pathways are the result of cumulative societal choices and actions
within multiple arenas. Panel (a): Societal choices towards higher CRD (green cog) or lower CRD (red cog) result from
interacting decisions and actions by diverse government, private sector and civil society actors, in the context of climate
risks, adaptation limits and development gaps. These actors engage with adaptation, mitigation and development actions
in political, economic and financial, ecological, socio-cultural, knowledge and technology, and community arenas from
local to international levels. Opportunities for climate resilient development are not equitably distributed around the
world. Panel (b): Cumulatively, societal choices, which are made continuously, shift global development pathways
towards higher (green) or lower (red) climate resilient development. Past conditions (past emissions, climate change and
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development) have already eliminated some development pathways towards higher CRD (dashed green line). Panel (c):
Higher CRD is characterised by outcomes that advance sustainable development for all. Climate resilient development is
progressively harder to achieve with global warming levels beyond 1.5°C. Inadequate progress towards the Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 reduces climate resilient development prospects. There is a narrowing window of
opportunity to shift pathways towards more climate resilient development futures as reflected by the adaptation limits
and increasing climate risks, considering the remaining carbon budgets. (Figure SPM.2, Figure SPM.3) {2.6, 3.6, 7.2,
7.3, 7.4, 8.3, 8.4, 8.5, 16.4, 16.5, 17.3, 17.4, 17.5, 18.1, 18.2, 18.3, 18.4, Figure 18.1, Figure 18.2, Figure 18.3, Box 18.1,
CCB COVID, CCB GENDER, CCB HEALTH, CCB INDIG, CCB SLR, AR6 WGI Table SPM.1 and Table SPM.2,
SR1.5 Figure SPM.1, Figure TS.14b}
Enabling Climate Resilient Development
SPM.D.2
Climate resilient development is enabled when governments, civil society and the private
sector make inclusive development choices that prioritise risk reduction, equity and justice, and when
decision-making processes, finance and actions are integrated across governance levels, sectors and
timeframes (very
high confidence).
Climate resilient development is facilitated by international cooperation
and by governments at all levels working with communities, civil society, educational bodies, scientific and
other institutions, media, investors and businesses; and by developing partnerships with traditionally
marginalised groups, including women, youth, Indigenous Peoples, local communities and ethnic minorities
(high
confidence).
These partnerships are most effective when supported by enabling political leadership,
institutions, resources, including finance, as well as climate services, information and decision support
tools (high
confidence).
(Figure SPM.5) {1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 2.7, 3.6, 4.8, 5.14, 6.4, 7.4, 8.5, 8.6, 9.4, 10.6, 11.8,
12.5, 13.11, 14.7, 15.6, 15.7, 17.4, 17.6, 18.4, 18.5, CCP2.4, CCP3.4, CCP4.4, CCP5.4, CCP6.4, CCP7.6,
CCB HEALTH, CCB GENDER, CCB INDIG, CCB DEEP, CCB NATURAL, CCB SLR}
SPM.D.2.1
Climate resilient development is advanced when actors work in equitable, just and enabling ways
to reconcile divergent interests, values and worldviews, toward equitable and just outcomes (high
confidence).
These practices build on diverse knowledges about climate risk and chosen development pathways account
for local, regional and global climate impacts, risks, barriers and opportunities (high
confidence).
Structural
vulnerabilities to climate change can be reduced through carefully designed and implemented legal, policy,
and process interventions from the local to global that address inequities based on gender, ethnicity, disability,
age, location and income (very
high confidence).
This includes rights-based approaches that focus on capacity-
building, meaningful participation of the most vulnerable groups, and their access to key resources, including
financing, to reduce risk and adapt (high
confidence).
Evidence shows that climate resilient development
processes link scientific, Indigenous, local, practitioner and other forms of knowledge, and are more effective
and sustainable because they are locally appropriate and lead to more legitimate, relevant and effective actions
(high
confidence).
Pathways towards climate resilient development overcome jurisdictional and organizational
barriers, and are founded on societal choices that accelerate and deepen key system transitions (very
high
confidence).
Planning processes and decision analysis tools can help identify ‘low regrets’ options
47
that enable
mitigation and adaptation in the face of change, complexity, deep uncertainty and divergent views (medium
confidence).
{1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 2.7, 3.6, 4.8, 5.14, 6.4, 7.4, 8.5, 8.6, 9.4, 10.6, 11.8, 12.5, 13.11, 14.7, 15.6, 15.7,
17.2-17.6, 18.2-18.4, CCP2.3-2.4, CCP3.4, CCP4.4, CCP5.4, CCP6.4, CCP7.6, Box 8.7, Box 9.2, CCB
HEALTH, CCB INDIG, CCB DEEP, CCB NATURAL, CCB SLR}
SPM.D.2.2
Inclusive governance contributes to more effective and enduring adaptation outcomes and enables
climate resilient development (high
confidence).
Inclusive processes strengthen the ability of governments and
other stakeholders to jointly consider factors such as the rate and magnitude of change and uncertainties,
associated impacts, and timescales of different climate resilient development pathways given past development
choices leading to past emissions and scenarios of future global warming (high
confidence).
Associated
societal choices are made continuously through interactions in arenas of engagement from local to international
levels. The quality and outcome of these interactions helps determine whether development pathways shift
towards or away from climate resilient development (medium
confidence).
(Figure SPM.5) {2.7, 3.6, 4.8, 5.14,
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6.4, 7.4, 8.5, 8.6, 9.4, 10.6, 11.8, 12.5, 13.11, 14.7, 15.6, 15.7, 17.2-17.6, 18.2, 18.4, CCP2.3-2.4, CCP3.4,
CCP4.4, CCP5.4, CCP6.4, CCP7.6, CCB HEALTH, CCB GENDER, CCB INDIG}
SPM.D.2.3
Governance for climate resilient development is most effective when supported by formal and
informal institutions and practices that are well-aligned across scales, sectors, policy domains and timeframes.
Governance efforts that advance climate resilient development account for the dynamic, uncertain and context-
specific nature of climate-related risk, and its interconnections with non-climate risks. Institutions
48
that enable
climate resilient development are flexible and responsive to emergent risks and facilitate sustained and timely
action. Governance for climate resilient development is enabled by adequate and appropriate human and
technological resources, information, capacities and finance. (high
confidence)
{2.7, 3.6, 4.8, 5.14, 6.3, 6.4,
7.4, 8.5, 8.6, 9.4, 10.6, 11.8, 12.5, 13.11, 14.7, 15.6, 15.7, 17.2-17.6, 18.2, 18.4, CCP2.3-2.4, CCP3.4, CCP4.4,
CCP5.4, CCP6.4, CCP7.6, CCB HEALTH, CCB GENDER, CCB INDIG, CCB DEEP, CCB NATURAL,
CCB SLR}
Climate Resilient Development for Natural and Human Systems
SPM.D.3
Interactions between changing urban form, exposure and vulnerability can create climate change-
induced risks and losses for cities and settlements. However, the global trend of urbanisation also offers a
critical opportunity in the near-term, to advance climate resilient development (high
confidence).
Integrated,
inclusive planning and investment in everyday decision-making about urban infrastructure, including social,
ecological and grey/physical infrastructures, can significantly increase the adaptive capacity of urban and rural
settlements. Equitable outcomes contributes to multiple benefits for health and well-being and ecosystem
services, including for Indigenous Peoples, marginalised and vulnerable communities (high
confidence).
Climate resilient development in urban areas also supports adaptive capacity in more rural places through
maintaining peri-urban supply chains of goods and services and financial flows (medium
confidence).
Coastal
cities and settlements play an especially important role in advancing climate resilient development (high
confidence).
{6.2, 6.3, 18.3, Table 6.6, Box 9.8, CCP6.2, CCP2.1. CCP2.2, CWGB URBAN}
SPM.D.3.1
Taking integrated action for climate resilience to avoid climate risk requires urgent decision
making for the new built environment and retrofitting existing urban design, infrastructure and land use. Based
on socioeconomic circumstances, adaptation and sustainable development actions will provide multiple
benefits including for health and well-being, particularly when supported by national governments, non-
governmental organisations and international agencies that work across sectors in partnerships with local
communities. Equitable partnerships between local and municipal governments, the private sector, Indigenous
Peoples, local communities, and civil society can, including through international cooperation, advance
climate resilient development by addressing structural inequalities, insufficient financial resources, cross-city
risks and the integration of Indigenous knowledge and Local knowledge. (high
confidence)
{6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 7.4,
8.5, 9.4, 10.5. 12.5, 17.4, 18.2, Table 6.6, Table 17.8, Box 18.1, CCP2.4, CCB GENDER, CCB INDIG, CCB
FINANCE, CWGB URBAN}
SPM.D.3.2
Rapid global urbanisation offers opportunities for climate resilient development in diverse
contexts from rural and informal settlements to large metropolitan areas (high
confidence).
Dominant models
of energy intensive and market-led urbanisation, insufficient and misaligned finance and a predominant focus
on grey infrastructure in the absence of integration with ecological and social approaches, risks missing
opportunities for adaptation and locking in maladaptation (high
confidence).
Poor land use planning and siloed
approaches to health, ecological and social planning also exacerbates, vulnerability in already marginalised
Institutions: Rules, norms and conventions that guide, constrain or enable human behaviours and practices. Institutions can be
formally established, for instance through laws and regulations, or informally established, for instance by traditions or customs.
Institutions may spur, hinder, strengthen, weaken or distort the emergence, adoption and implementation of climate action and climate
governance.
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communities (medium
confidence).
Urban climate resilient development is observed to be more effective if it
is responsive to regional and local land use development and adaptation gaps, and addresses the underlying
drivers of vulnerability (high
confidence).
The greatest gains in well-being can be achieved by prioritizing
finance to reduce climate risk for low-income and marginalized residents including people living in informal
settlements (high
confidence).
{5.14, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5, 7.4, 8.5, 8.6, 9.8, 9.9, 10.4, 18.2, Table 17.8, Table
6.6, Figure 6.5, CCB HEALTH, CCP2.2, CCP5.4, CWGB URBAN}
SPM.D.3.3
Urban systems are critical, interconnected sites for enabling climate resilient development,
especially at the coast. Coastal cities and settlements play a key role in moving toward higher climate resilient
development given firstly, almost 11% of the global population – 896 million people – lived within the Low
Elevation Coastal Zone
49
in 2020, potentially increasing to beyond 1 billion people by 2050, and these people,
and associated development and coastal ecosystems, face escalating climate compounded risks, including sea
level rise. Secondly, these coastal cities and settlements make key contributions to climate resilient
development through their vital role in national economies and inland communities, global trade supply chains,
cultural exchange, and centres of innovation. (high
confidence)
{6.2, Box 15.2, CCP2.1, CCP2.2, Table
CCP2.4, CCB SLR}
SPM.D.4
Safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystems is fundamental to climate resilient development, in light
of the threats climate change poses to them and their roles in adaptation and mitigation (very
high
confidence).
Recent analyses, drawing on a range of lines of evidence, suggest that maintaining the resilience
of biodiversity and ecosystem services at a global scale depends on effective and equitable conservation of
approximately 30% to 50% of Earth’s land, freshwater and ocean areas, including currently near-natural
ecosystems (high
confidence).
{2.4, 2.5, 2.6, 3.4, Box 3.4, 3.5, 3.6, 12.5, 13.3, 13.4, 13.5, 13.10, CCB
NATURAL, CCB INDIG}
SPM.D.4.1
Building the resilience of biodiversity and supporting ecosystem integrity
50
can maintain benefits
for people, including livelihoods, human health and well-being and the provision of food, fibre and water, as
well as contributing to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation and mitigation.{2.2, 2.5, 2.6,
Table 2.6, Table 2.7, 3.5, 3.6, 5.8, 5.13, 5.14, 12.5, Box 5.11 CCP5.4, CCB NATURAL, CCB ILLNESS, CCB
COVID, CCB GENDER, CCB INDIG, CCB MIGRATE}
SPM.D.4.2
Protecting and restoring ecosystems is essential for maintaining and enhancing the resilience of
the biosphere (very
high confidence).
Degradation and loss of ecosystems is also a cause of greenhouse gas
emissions and is at increasing risk of being exacerbated by climate change impacts, including droughts and
wildfire
(high confidence).
Climate resilient development avoids adaptation and mitigation measures that
damage ecosystems (high
confidence).
Documented examples of adverse impacts of land-based measures
intended as mitigation, when poorly implemented, include afforestation of grasslands, savannas and peatlands,
and risks from bioenergy crops at large scale to water supply, food security and biodiversity (high
confidence).
{2.4, 2.5, Box 2.2, 3.4, 3.5, Box 3.4, Box 9.3, CCP7.3, CCB NATURAL, CWGB BIOECONOMY}
SPM.D.4.3
Biodiversity and ecosystem services have limited capacity to adapt to increasing global warming
levels, which will make climate resilient development progressively harder to achieve beyond 1.5°C warming
(very
high confidence).
Consequences of current and future global warming for climate resilient development
include reduced effectiveness of EbA and approaches to climate change mitigation based on ecosystems and
amplifying feedbacks to the climate system (high
confidence).
{2.4, 2.5, 2.6, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6, 12.5, 13.2, 13.3,
13.10, 14.5, 14.5, 15.3, 17.3, 17.6, Box 14.3, Box 3.4, Table 5.2, CCP5.3, CCP5.4, Figure TS.14d, CCB
EXTREMES, CCB ILLNESS, CCB NATURAL, CCB SLR, SR1.5, SRCCL, SROCC}
LECZ, coastal areas below 10 m of elevation above sea level that are hydrologically connected to the sea
Ecosystem integrity refers to the ability of ecosystems to maintain key ecological processes, recover from disturbance, and adapt to
new conditions.
50
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Achieving Climate Resilient Development
SPM.D.5
It is unequivocal that climate change has already disrupted human and natural systems. Past and
current development trends (past emissions, development and climate change) have not advanced global
climate resilient development (very
high confidence).
Societal choices and actions implemented in the next
decade determine the extent to which medium- and long-term pathways will deliver higher or lower climate
resilient development (high
confidence).
Importantly climate resilient development prospects are increasingly
limited if current greenhouse gas emissions do not rapidly decline, especially if 1.5°C global warming is
exceeded in the near term (high
confidence).
These prospects are constrained by past development, emissions
and climate change, and enabled by inclusive governance, adequate and appropriate human and technological
resources, information, capacities and finance (high
confidence).
{1.2, 1.4, 1.5, 2.6, 2.7, 3.6, 4.7, 4.8, 5.14, 6.4,
7.4, 8.3, 8.5, 8.6, 9.3, 9.4, 9.5, 10.6, 11.8, 12.5, 13.10, 13.11, 14.7, 15.3, 15.6, 15.7, 16.2, 16.4, 16.5, 16.6,
17.2-17.6, 18.2-18.5, CCP2.3-2.4, CCP3.4, CCP4.4, Table CCP5.2, CCP5.3, CCP5.4, CCP6.3, CCP6.4,
CCP7.5, CCP7.6, Figure TS.14d, CCB DEEP, CCB HEALTH, CCB INDIG, CCB DEEP, CCB NATURAL,
CCB SLR}
SPM.D.5.1
Climate resilient development is already challenging at current global warming levels (high
confidence).
The prospects for climate resilient development will be further limited if global warming levels
exceeds 1.5°C (high
confidence)
and not be possible in some regions and sub-regions if the global warming
level exceeds 2°C (medium
confidence).
Climate resilient development is most constrained in
regions/subregions in which climate impacts and risks are already advanced, including low-lying coastal cities
and settlements, small islands, deserts, mountains and polar regions (high
confidence).
Regions and subregions
with high levels of poverty, water, food and energy insecurity, vulnerable urban environments, degraded
ecosystems and rural environments, and/or few enabling conditions, face many non-climate challenges that
inhibit climate resilient development which are further exacerbated by climate change (high
confidence).
{1.2,
9.3, 9.4, 9.5, 10.6, 11.8, 12.5, 13.10, 14.7, 15.3, CCP2.3, CCP3.4, CCP4.4, Box 6.6. CCP5.3, Table CCP5.2,
CCP6.3, CCP7.5, Figure TS.14d}
SPM.D.5.2
Inclusive governance, investment aligned with climate resilient development, access to
appropriate technology and rapidly scaled-up finance, and capacity building of governments at all levels, the
private sector and civil society enable climate resilient development. Experience shows that climate resilient
development processes are timely, anticipatory, integrative, flexible and action focused. Common goals and
social learning build adaptive capacity for climate resilient development. When implementing adaptation and
mitigation together, and taking trade-offs into account, multiple benefits and synergies for human well-being
as well as ecosystem and planetary health can be realised. Prospects for climate resilient development are
increased by inclusive processes involving local knowledge and Indigenous Knowledge as well as processes
that coordinate across risks and institutions. Climate resilient development is enabled by increased
international cooperation including mobilising and enhancing access to finance, particularly for vulnerable
regions, sectors and groups. (high
confidence)
(Figure SPM.5) {2.7, 3.6, 4.8, 5.14, 6.4, 7.4, 8.5, 8.6, 9.4, 10.6,
11.8, 12.5, 13.11, 14.7, 15.6, 15.7, 17.2-17.6, 18.2-18.5, CCP2.3-2.4, CCP3.4, CCP4.4, CCP5.4, CCP6.4,
CCP7.6, CCB HEALTH, CCB INDIG, CCB DEEP, CCB NATURAL, CCB SLR}
SPM.D.5.3
The cumulative scientific evidence is unequivocal: Climate change is a threat to human well-being
and planetary health. Any further delay in concerted anticipatory global action on adaptation and mitigation
will miss a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all.
(very
high confidence)
{1.2, 1.4, 1.5, 16.2, 16.4, 16.5, 16.6, 17.4, 17.5, 17.6, 18.3, 18.4, 18.5, CWGB URBAN,
CCB DEEP, Table SM16.24, WGI SPM, SROCC SPM, SRCCL SPM}
Subject to Copyedit
SPM-35
Total pages: 35