Skatteudvalget 2020-21
SAU Alm.del Bilag 52
Offentligt
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Experts’ views on car sharing
in future urban mobility
Results from a User Survey and an
Expert Survey in four European countries
Eivind Farstad, TØI, OSLO
 SAU, Alm.del - 2020-21 - Bilag 52: Henvendelse af 17/11-20 fra GoMore om foretræde vedrørende øget bundfradrag på privat udlejning af grønne biler
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Today’s presentation
•
Eivind Farstad (PhD), senior researcher, TØI
•
A little about the TEMPEST project
•
Results from car sharer user survey (Oslo)
•
Results from Expert survey about future
development up to 2030
•
Some conclusions
•
Some suggested policies and measures
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 SAU, Alm.del - 2020-21 - Bilag 52: Henvendelse af 17/11-20 fra GoMore om foretræde vedrørende øget bundfradrag på privat udlejning af grønne biler
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First - a litte about TEMPEST
•
TEMPEST
= Transforming household mobility
practices through shared consumption: Low-
carbon transport and sustainable energy
solutions in urban areas
•
3-year research project financed by Norges
forskningsråd (Research Council of Norway)
•
Partners:
Transportøkonomisk institutt
(lead); DRIFT at
Erasmus University
Rotterdam,
Nederland;
Lund University,
Sverige; TSU at
University of Oxford,
UK;
and PhD research fellow connected to TIK at
University of Oslo
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 SAU, Alm.del - 2020-21 - Bilag 52: Henvendelse af 17/11-20 fra GoMore om foretræde vedrørende øget bundfradrag på privat udlejning af grønne biler
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TEMPEST Goal & research approach
Goal:
Investigate the potential of a transition, away from individually
privately owned means of transport (i.e. private cars) to car
sharing (cs), and implications for mobility practices in
households and related energy use and emissions
Research approach:
Comparative case study via
document analysis,
in-depth
interviews of households, survey among car shares
(only
in Norway),
stakeholder workshops,
and
Expert survey
(Delphi study)
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 SAU, Alm.del - 2020-21 - Bilag 52: Henvendelse af 17/11-20 fra GoMore om foretræde vedrørende øget bundfradrag på privat udlejning af grønne biler
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RESULTS FROM CS SURVEY:
Does car sharing lead to less car use?
2000+ users of Billkollektivet (coop),
Nabobil (P2P), Hertz (B2C) in Oslo
▪
Most car sharers agree that they drive less
after starting with car sharing (i.e., disagree
that they drive more)
▪
Car sharers in Oslo drive ca. 30% less in km.
per week than the general Oslo population
▪
Bilkollektivet’s
(Coop) users agree they have
increased car use the most, most likely
because many have not had a car previously
▪
Most new drivers agree they drive more now
than those who have had a car before
▪
But not always
–
also some (20%), mostly
former owners, agree they drive more than
before
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Have increased car use after adoption (%)*
75
66
50
63
36
14
19
23
Bilkollektivet
Nabobil
Enig
Herz
Uenig
Totalt
Agree Disagree
Agee that I use car more now (%)*
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
26%
21%
13%
20%
31%
35%
54%
20%
→
Yes, most probable - and especially
those who go from owning to sharing
0%
Bilkollektivet
Nabobil
Eid bil før
Have owned car
Herz
Ikke eid bil før
Never owned car
Totalt
* Sum score: 5-7 on a scale from 1-7 where 1 is Do not agree at all to 7 Totally agree
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 SAU, Alm.del - 2020-21 - Bilag 52: Henvendelse af 17/11-20 fra GoMore om foretræde vedrørende øget bundfradrag på privat udlejning af grønne biler
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Does car sharing contribute
to reductions in use of public
transport, biking and walking?
▪
Very few think cs has reduced their use
of public transport, also among people
who have not had a car before
▪
Somewhat more among Hertz users
think it has reduced use of public
transport, probably because they have
more shorter cs trips
▪
Many think it has increased their
walking and biking, especially former
car owners who now are shares
Reductions in use of public transport
15%
12%
7%
3%
2%
0%
Bilkollektivet
Nabobil
Have owned car
10%
5%
3%
2%
6%
4%
Hertz
Ikke eid bil før
Never owned car
Totalt
Eid bil før
Increased walking and biking
40%
30%
20%
10%
6%
8%
38%
31%
35%
7%
→
No, but probably increase in
biking and walking
0%
Bilkollektivet
Have owned car
Hertz
Eid bil før
Ikke eid bil før
Never owned car
Totalt
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 SAU, Alm.del - 2020-21 - Bilag 52: Henvendelse af 17/11-20 fra GoMore om foretræde vedrørende øget bundfradrag på privat udlejning af grønne biler
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Can cs be a supplement
to owned cars that
increase total car driving?
▪
In total one in four car sharers have access
to another car than cs (owned or rented)
▪
Among Nabobil users one in three have
access to other cars
▪
Bilkollektivet’s
users have to a lesser
degree access to other cars
▪
Households with other supplementary
cars drive more than those with only cs
cars
▪
Generally active users have less other cars
available at home than passive, occasional
users
Car ownership
90,0%
80,0%
70,0%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0%
30,0%
20,0%
10,0%
0,0%
81%
73%
51%
36%
27%
14%
68%
25%
Nabobil
Bilkollektivet
Flere biler i husholdningen
Other cars in household
Herz
Shared car only
Totalt
Kun delebil
Km driven by car last week
160
140
120
98
61
41
39
147
100
80
60
40
20
0
Nabobil
Kun delt bil
Herz
90
→
Yes, this is quite probable, but for
the most part some of Nabobil (P2P)
users
Bilkollektivet
Shared car only Other cars in household
Flere biler i husholdningen
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 SAU, Alm.del - 2020-21 - Bilag 52: Henvendelse af 17/11-20 fra GoMore om foretræde vedrørende øget bundfradrag på privat udlejning af grønne biler
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About the expert survey (Delphi)
▪
Purpose: To get experts’ opinions on different possible developments
likely to affect the level of diffusion of cs in the future mobility system
▪
Theoretical framework: the Multi-Level Perspective w/conceivable
developments within the Landscape, Regime and Niche levels
▪
Invitations sent e-mail by project partners to a pool of experts and other
resource persons in each case country among:
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
Public civil servants, transport and urban planners
Local politicians
Transport operators
Car sharing operators
Research and academia
NGOs
Finance and insurance
Other experts
▪
110 experts were asked to consider urban mobility-related developments
towards 2030 in London, Malmö-region, Oslo or Rotterdam, for their
respective case city
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 SAU, Alm.del - 2020-21 - Bilag 52: Henvendelse af 17/11-20 fra GoMore om foretræde vedrørende øget bundfradrag på privat udlejning af grønne biler
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Top 5 likely future developments
Considered as the 5 most likely developments among 27-
all respondents
Very
unlikely
1
A massive development of public transport and last-mile
services, coupled with very good facilities for walking and
biking, has substantially reduced the need for car driving
in the city
More designated short-time parking spaces for shared
cars and removal of other public parking space has made
car sharing more widespread in cities
2
3
4
5
Very
likely
6
Several new innovative car sharing services/platforms
have made car sharing development escalate rapidly
Due to consolidation processes a limited number of
international car sharing companies will dominate the
market
Spatial urban planning will be used to phase out individual
car-based mobility
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 SAU, Alm.del - 2020-21 - Bilag 52: Henvendelse af 17/11-20 fra GoMore om foretræde vedrørende øget bundfradrag på privat udlejning af grønne biler
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Least likely developments
Considered as the 5 least likely developments - all respondents
Very
1
unlikely
A fleet of autonomous cars will dominate passenger
transportation in the city
2
3
4
5
Very
likely
6
New technology and increased road capacity has
made private cars very comfortable, convenient and
cheap to use in urban areas
Shared cars have turned out to be a “hype”, and very
few people are no longer using shared cars
Car sharing has substantially increased the total
number of car trips in the city, and replaced most of
the public transport, walking and biking trips
The public transport system has collapsed, and
instead several private companies offer mobility-as-a-
service (MaaS) integrating multiple transport services
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 SAU, Alm.del - 2020-21 - Bilag 52: Henvendelse af 17/11-20 fra GoMore om foretræde vedrørende øget bundfradrag på privat udlejning af grønne biler
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Delphi Study results by case city - 5 considered most likely developments
London, UK
Rotterdam, the Netherlands
Malmö-region, Sweden
Average for all respondents
A massive development of
public transport and last-mile
services, coupled with very
good facilities for walking and
biking, has substantially
reduced the need for car
driving in the city
6
Oslo, Norway
5
4
Spatial urban planning will be
used to phase out individual
car-based mobility
3
2
1
More designated short-time
parking spaces for shared
cars and removal of other
public parking space has
made car sharing more
widespread in cities
Due to consolidation
processes a limited number
of international car sharing
companies will dominate the
market
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Several new innovative car
sharing services/platforms
have made car sharing
development escalate rapidly
 SAU, Alm.del - 2020-21 - Bilag 52: Henvendelse af 17/11-20 fra GoMore om foretræde vedrørende øget bundfradrag på privat udlejning af grønne biler
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Estimates of technological & cs future
development
–
much agreement across cities
Technological and car sharing diffusion estimates (percent) by 2030
- by case city
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Fossil-fuel powered cars of all cars in the city centre
Zero-emission cars of all cars in the city centre
Autonomous driver-less cars of all shared cars in the
city
All types of shared cars in the city (of the total
number of cars)
Proportion of private passenger car trips replaced by
shared car trips in the city
London, UK
Rotterdam, the Netherlands
Malmö-region, Sweden
Average for all respondents
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Oslo, Norway
 SAU, Alm.del - 2020-21 - Bilag 52: Henvendelse af 17/11-20 fra GoMore om foretræde vedrørende øget bundfradrag på privat udlejning af grønne biler
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Estimates of different types of car sharing
development
–
also much agreement across cities
Different types of car sharing diffusion estimates (percent) by 2030
- by case city
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
All types of shared cars in the city
(total number of cars)
Peer-to-peer (P2P) car sharing of all
shared cars
Commercial business-to-consumer
(B2C) cs of all shared cars
Open-ended or free-floating shared
cars of all shared cars
London, UK
Rotterdam, the Netherlands
Malmö-region, Sweden
Average for all respondents
Oslo, Norway
Today: Less than 5% cs
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 SAU, Alm.del - 2020-21 - Bilag 52: Henvendelse af 17/11-20 fra GoMore om foretræde vedrørende øget bundfradrag på privat udlejning af grønne biler
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Some conclusions so far…
▪
Our research suggests that cars sharing can reduce car
driving in the city
–
around 1/3 of car trips
▪
Experts generally believe car sharing will increase in
magnitude and importance towards 2030
▪
Developments that are «cs favorable» are judged likely to
occur
▪
Developments working against cs growth are judged less
likely to take place
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 SAU, Alm.del - 2020-21 - Bilag 52: Henvendelse af 17/11-20 fra GoMore om foretræde vedrørende øget bundfradrag på privat udlejning af grønne biler
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Some conclusions so far…
▪
Experts think fossil-fueled cars will be partly phased out
and zero-emission cars take over by 2030,
▪
and only a low proportion of autonomous cars in city centers
▪
The majority (45%) of cs cars within B2C business models
▪
Cs diffusion believed to become 40% of all cars in cities
▪
Cs trips can replace 30-40% of private car trips in case
cities, on average
▪
With this level of prevalence of cs cars in 2030, that will
make a substantial impact on energy use and emissions.
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 SAU, Alm.del - 2020-21 - Bilag 52: Henvendelse af 17/11-20 fra GoMore om foretræde vedrørende øget bundfradrag på privat udlejning af grønne biler
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and finally -
some more…
▪
Some suggested policies:
▪
Develop parking policies that favor cs over private cars
▪
Make it more difficult and expensive to drive private cars in
cities
▪
Develop public transport and facilities for biking and walking
making it less necessary to drive cars in cities
▪
Integrate cs with shared mobility systems (MaaS etc.)
▪
Use urban planning to phase out private cars in the city
▪
Try to stimulate a variety of cs
services, avoid “cs monopolies”
Further work:
2-3 scenarios will be developed based on the findings
We believe the user and expert survey results are important
as input for policy makers when setting premises and
designing the future mobility system
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 SAU, Alm.del - 2020-21 - Bilag 52: Henvendelse af 17/11-20 fra GoMore om foretræde vedrørende øget bundfradrag på privat udlejning af grønne biler
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Thank you for your attention!
www.toi.no
og https://www.toi.no/tempest/
[email protected]
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