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THE WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME’S

CONTRIBUTION TO IMPROVING

THE PROSPECTS FOR PEACE

IN MALI

rachel goldwyn, suyoun jang,

jonas holm klange, gary milante

and rebecca richards

WORKING PAPER

June 2019

URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred

STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL

PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE

SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into

conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966,

SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources,

to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public.

The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the

publications of the Institute.

GOVERNING BOARD

Ambassador Jan Eliasson, Chair (Sweden)

Dr Dewi Fortuna Anwar (Indonesia)

Dr Vladimir Baranovsky (Russia)

Espen Barth Eide (Norway)

Jean-Marie Guéhenno (France)

Dr Radha Kumar (India)

Dr Patricia Lewis (Ireland/United Kingdom)

Dr Jessica Tuchman Mathews (United States)

DIRECTOR

Dan Smith (United Kingdom)

Signalistgatan 9

SE-169 70 Solna, Sweden

Telephone: +46 8 655 97 00

Email: [email protected]

Internet: www.sipri.org

URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred

THE WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME’S

CONTRIBUTION TO IMPROVING

THE PROSPECTS FOR PEACE

IN MALI

Working paper

rachel goldwyn, suyoun jang,

jonas holm klange, gary milante

and rebecca richards

June 2019

URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred

Methodology and disclaimer

The Mali case study is one of four country case studies for the first phase of the Stock-

holm International Peace Research Institute–World Food Programme Knowledge

Partnership. For each case study, a joint team of staff from SIPRI and WFP conducted

in-country research for approximately two weeks to identify the possible contributions

to improving the prospects for peace resulting from WFP programming. The method-

ologies for this analysis were a literature review of the country context and of WFP

and other programming; key informant interviews with WFP country office staff,

beneficiaries and local experts; focus group discussions with beneficiaries; and

consultations with partners and experts in the country. Each country visit culminated

in a presentation of the findings and a discussion with the management of the country

office on possible ways forward, which included a discussion of the contemporary

political, social and technical challenges of incorporating a conflict lens, conflict

sensitivity and peacebuilding work into WFP programming. The country report was

then written up in consultation with the country office, incorporating clarifications

and additional evidence as these became available. As a result, this analysis is not

independent of the context. The findings of these four country cases informed the

Global Report on Phase 1, which was published in June 2019.

The findings and recommendations and any errors or omissions are those of the

authors and do not represent the position of SIPRI, WFP, or the management, executive

directors or boards of these institutions.

transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of SIPRI or as

expressly permitted by law.

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Contents

Acknowledgements

Abbreviations

Executive Summary

1. Introduction

2. Conflict context analysis

Situation profile

Drivers of conflict

Food insecurity and conflict in Mali

Box 2.1. Humanitarian action in an integrated mission context

3. WFP in Mali

WFP Mali programming and improving the prospects for peace

Figure 3.1. WFP Mali Transitional Interim Country Strategic Plan, 2018–19

Figure 3.2. Entry points for peacebuilding in the programme design and

implementation cycle

4. WFP’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace in Mali

Strategic Outcome 2

Strategic Outcome 4

Strategic outcome 5

Box 4.1. The link between resilience and conflict prevention in the Mali context

Box 4.2. School management committees

Box 4.3. Peers for Peace: Building social cohesion in the Mopti and Ségou Regions

Box. 4.4. Community-based participatory planning

5. Cross-cutting issues: Conflict sensitivity, participatory planning and data

Conflict sensitivity concerns

Inclusion/exclusion errors on participant/distribution lists

Inputs are collected and redistributed on the basis that all community members

are vulnerable

Recommendations on revisiting targeting of individuals and households for

assistance

Community-based participatory planning processes

Data

Integration of peace and conflict into WFP Mali’s processes, systems and capacities

vii

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Acknowledgements

The Mali country visit took place in January 2019. The research team consisted of:

Rachel Goldwyn (Senior Conflict-Sensitivity and Peacebuilding Advisor, WFP),

Suyoun Jang (Researcher, SIPRI), Jonas Holm Klange (Programme Officer, WFP Mali

Country Office), Gary Milante (Director of Studies, Peace and Development, SIPRI)

and Rebecca Richards (Chief of Emergencies and Transition, WFP).

The research team would like to begin by gratefully acknowledging the cooperation

of the WFP Mali country office staff, administration and management, in particular:

Silvia Caruso (Country Director), Ibrahim Diop (Deputy Country Director), William

Nall (Head of Programme), Nanthilde Kamara, Michèle Kiermeier, Caroline Schaefer,

Nail Lazrak, Ramatou Konate and Katia Oslansky.

The team would also like to express its gratitude for the support and guidance

provided during the visit to project sites to Moussa Jean Traoré (Head of Sub-office)

and all staff at the WFP Mopti sub-office as well as the staff of Yam Giribolo Tumo

(YAGTU). We extend our appreciation to all the informants in the other United

Nations organizations, donor agencies, international/local NGOs, civil society and

local partners, as well as government representatives, in Mali. Sincere gratitude also

goes to WFP’s beneficiaries who kindly shared their insights with the SIPRI–WFP

research team.

The team is grateful to the SIPRI Editorial Department for its important work in

realizing this publication.

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Abbreviations

ACLED

CBPP

CFM

CSP

ENSAN

FAO

FC-G5S

FFAs

GDP

GFD

IDP

MDSF

MINUSMA

NRM

SAMS

SDC

SDG

SMC

T-ICSP

TOC

WFP

Armed Conflict Location and Event Database

Community-based participatory planning

Complaints and feedback mechanism

Country Strategic Plan

National Food and Nutritional Security Survey

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Force Conjointe du G5 Sahel

Food assistance for assets

Gross domestic product

General food distribution

internally displaced person

Malian Defence and Security Forces

Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali

Natural resource management

Smallholder agriculture market and value chain support

Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation

United Nations Sustainable Development Goal

School management committee

Transitional Interim Country Strategic Plan

Theory of change

World Food Programme

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Executive Summary

This case study is the part of a wider knowledge partnership between the World Food

Programme (WFP) and the Stockholm International Peace Research institute (SIPRI),

which aims to better understand and strengthen WFP’s contribution to improving

the prospects for peace. In the light of its complex context, where humanitarian,

development and peace agendas intersect, Mali was selected along with three other

countries (El Salvador, Iraq and Kyrgyzstan) for pilot phase research. The objectives

of this phase 1 case study were to understand WFP’s contribution to improving the

prospects for peace, how WFP could enhance its contributions to improving such

prospects, and how all this could be measured.

This case study report contains detailed findings from the field research. This

research involved a review of country office and programme documentation and

the relevant literature, and an assessment of current data sets. However, the core of

the field research, and the activity on which most time was invested, was qualitative

assessment through focus group discussions and research interviews involving key

stakeholders within and outside WFP, as well as visits to project sites.

The case study focused on the part of WFP’s portfolio in Mali that includes

food assistance for assets (FFA), general food distribution (GFD), the school meals

programme and a social cohesion project funded by the Peacebuilding Fund. To

review which parts of the portfolio appear most promising as WFP’s contribution to

improving the prospects for peace, the case study employed the concept of theories of

change (TOCs) as a tool for facilitating analysis and stimulating new thinking about how

programming can contribute to improving the prospects for peace. The availability of

relevant data for measuring WFP’s contribution to enhancing the prospects for peace

was evaluated in the light of these TOCs. The detailed methodology for using TOCs in

the research is set out in the preliminary report, which was published in June 2019.

Conflict context analysis in Mali

Context of the conflict in Mali

In early 2012, a rebellion in northern Mali was taken over by non-state armed groups.

This culminated in a political crisis and a coup d’état, which led to international

involvement and later the deployment of the United Nations Multidimensional

Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) in 2013. The 2015 Algiers Peace

and Reconciliation Agreement ended the armed conflict and enabled the installation

of interim authorities but insecurity remains high. Marginalization and limited access

to services and opportunities, combined with inter-communal conflict, provide fertile

ground for the expansion of non-state armed groups, illicit trafficking and extremism.

Since 2016, central Mali, which is not covered by the peace agreement, has increasingly

become a centre of instability due to the presence of extremist armed groups that have

exploited pre-existing rivalries between farmers and herders over access to land,

water and pasture. This has caused inter-community conflicts to flare up throughout

the region.

Food insecurity and conflict

Mali is caught in a cycle of mutually reinforcing factors of vulnerability and instability,

which makes it one of the most food insecure countries in the world. Around 25 per

C., Jang, S., Milante, G. and Smith, D.

The World Food Programme’s Contribution to Improving the

Prospects for Peace

(SIPRI: Stockholm, 2019).

Delgado,

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viii

improving the prospects for peace in mali

cent of households are moderately to severely food insecure. Most of the regions with

the highest levels of food insecurity are conflict-affected areas. The gradual erosion

of livelihoods in northern and central Mali is a root cause or driver of instability. This

is fuelled by marginalization, exclusion, corruption and a sense of injustice, as well

as the limited capacity of the state to deliver basic services to the population. People

in Mali, and youth, in particular, can be drawn into inter-communal tensions and

recruited into armed violence or organized crime.

Although there is little evidence that food insecurity was a factor in the outbreak of the

conflict in Mali, underlying factors affecting food security, especially food availability

and access, have exacerbated some of the root causes of conflict or fuelled existing

grievances. Inconsistent rains and more frequent and severe drought linked to climate

change increase natural resource stresses and reduce food security, increasing

tensions especially between farmers and herders. More generally, food price volatility,

market closures and market access issues create shocks that further aggravate social

tensions. A mixture of stress factors compounded by food insecurity intensifies the

risk of conflict over resources.

WFP in Mali

Following on from WFP’s emergency operation in response to the 2012 crisis in

northern Mali, WFP Mali is supporting communities affected by conflict and

vulnerable households experiencing seasonal stresses while building their resilience

to shocks through an increasing convergence of activities in central and northern

Mali. The country office has begun to design food security activities that can be used

as platforms for joint peacebuilding initiatives in partnership with other UN agencies,

the Government of Mali and NGOs. Currently, these activities are carried out under

a Transitional Interim Country Strategic Plan (T-ICSP), which ends in 2019. In 2020,

WFP will transition to a five-year Country Strategic Plan (CSP).

WFP’s contributions to improving the prospects for peace in Mali

The TOCs articulated in the study are set out below, along with a summary of

the relevant evidence from the peacebuilding field, potential conflict sensitivity

considerations, analysis and recommendations, where relevant, on improving the

prospects for peace.

TOC 1:

local communities mobilize themselves to manage the school meals programme through

school management committees,

then

they will demonstrate good governance at the grassroots level and

strengthen cooperation and trust among community members.

This theory is based on the assumption that a demonstrably accountable process at the

local level contributes to consensus building, and that mutual interests and interaction

among previously divided communities will help to reframe the perception of the

‘other’, build trust and change attitudes, thereby helping to create social cohesion. The

relevance of this TOC is dependent on context. It is most likely to be relevant in cases

where schools serve divided communities, and where levels of trust and cooperation

are low. In such cases, it may be an effective mechanism for strengthening relationships

locally.

TOC 2:

school meals programmes contribute to keeping schools open,

then

they may strengthen the

stabilizing role of education among communities affected by crisis.

There is evidence that the restoration of services, including education, in crisis

situations can restore a sense of normalcy and provide a practical ‘peace dividend’ for

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executive summary

communities. External studies show that school meals programmes have a positive

impact on the survival of schools, mitigating the effects of conflict on education and

stability in a community.

This TOC is particularly relevant in Mali, where the closure of schools due to

insecurity and the presence of extremist groups, as well as their reopening have

had strong signalling effects. Schools are a key platform for the delivery of relief and

development interventions, and school feeding is a critical enabler of schools remaining

open. Schools play a role in restoring normalcy and stabilizing local communities,

both directly and as a vehicle for further interventions, and by investing in a new

generation of human capital.

TOC 3:

natural resources are enhanced and equitable agreements are reached on their use,

then

conflict/tensions over natural resource access between competing user groups will be reduced.

The assumption behind this TOC is that rehabilitating and enhancing natural

resources to increase their availability and productivity can reduce competition and

disputes. The strongest contributions to peace through natural resource management

(NRM) require the creation of a clear system of ownership, mechanisms to resolve

disputes and the promotion of equity in benefits.

The root causes of escalating patterns of violence in Mali are land- and resource-

related conflicts. Farmer–herder conflicts, which usually coincide with ethnic

cleavages, have been intensified by climate change and population growth, and are

sometimes leveraged by armed groups. By enhancing infrastructure to reduce land

degradation and water loss, FFA enhances resource supply and thus directly helps to

prevent conflict over resources at the community level. To strengthen the contribution

to enhancing the prospects for peace, FFA programming should address ownership/

land-use issues, which should also promote stronger equity in terms of benefits.

TOC 4:

communities mobilize themselves to analyse their vulnerabilities through an inclusive and

participatory process and work together to strengthen livelihoods,

then

this will strengthen the inclusion

of youth and collaboration within and between communities.

This TOC is underpinned by contact theory, which states that participatory processes

can strengthen trust between community members, and by an assumption that

FFA interventions can create alternative sources of power and purpose through

community-based participatory planning (CBPP) processes, which provided practical

avenues for youth to air their views and see them put into action, and thus experience

empowerment through their involvement in enhancing livelihoods options. While

CBPPs may have the potential to strengthen inter/intra-community collaboration,

more evidence is required at the country office, regional and corporate levels.

Moreover, this TOC hinges on the inclusivity of its decision making, and further work

is recommended on analysing the involvement of vulnerable groups.

TOC 5:

government enhances the provision of basic social services, and increases its accountability

and responsiveness,

then

the citizen-state link will be strengthened by the state signalling its willingness

and ability to respond to the population’s needs.

There is a growing evidence base that public administration and social services can

enhance contact and accountability between citizens and the state by providing

performance-based legitimacy for the state. Although the capacity of the government

to provide essential social services in a substantial proportion of Mali is constrained

by high levels of insecurity and uncertainty over the peace process, decentralization

efforts support participatory budgeting and commune-level planning to increase the

accountability and responsiveness of the state. WFP Mali works with the Government

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improving the prospects for peace in mali

of Mali and the national social protection platform to enhance social protection

systems through a range of interventions.

Linking up WFP’s local planning processes with decentralized government

planning and budgeting processes at the commune level could help strengthen the

citizen-state link by building government capacities, improving service provision and

accountability, and feeding into a local planning process. Despite the constraints in

those parts of the country where the state is only partially present, it seems that there

is untapped potential for WFP to continue and scale up capacity building and support,

especially of lower tiers of governance.

Enhancing WFP’s contributions to improving the prospects for peace in Mali:

challenges and opportunities

Conflict sensitivity concerns

The country study also identified areas in which WFP’s programming might

unintentionally be leading to tensions and grievances or missing out on opportunities

to contribute to improving the prospects for peace. General concerns were raised about

the inclusivity of participatory processes and planning tools. The main concerns were

that sections of communities may not be genuinely involved in the process, especially

herders, and that lower status sections of the community may not be able to speak up

in community-wide processes.

Issues linked to programme participation—the selection of individuals and

households to participate in activities and receive assistance—also raised important

conflict sensitivity concerns. First, there can be inclusion/exclusion errors in drawing

up participant/distribution lists. The most pressing problem arises if armed groups

or local powerbrokers and chiefs try to influence or even control who gets on to a

participant/distribution list and use this as a mechanism to reinforce their power

over a community and to legitimize their position. Another issue that may arise is

the redistribution of food/cash transfers by the village chief, which indicates a lack of

understanding and acceptance of the selection criteria. If a chief were to favour certain

groups, this could contribute to an increase in grievances among excluded groups.

Another concern raised was linked to the risk of diversion during the distribution

process or the delivery of food assistance in areas with a weak state presence or under

the control of non-state armed groups, where resources have occasionally been looted

or misappropriated. Some modalities, such as e-vouchers to reduce the risk of resource

diversion, were identified as mitigation measures. When distributions are in-kind,

chiefs can also use this to solidify their own position and claim credit for the food

gained for the community.

Data

Measuring contributions to improving the prospects for peace is challenging. There

are difficulties linked to data collection in conflict environments and to the typically

intangible nature of the results being measured, such as increased levels of trust or

tolerance. WFP Mali already collects detailed data for a variety of monitoring purposes

and, while these were not designed for the purpose of assessing contributions to

improving the prospects for peace, some adaptations to these existing tools could help

to capture relevant evidence. This data should be complemented by other qualitative

data to provide a more nuanced understanding of attitudes and relationships, and the

changing nature of conflict/violence in the areas of operation. Data on other areas of

concern, such as physical security, market changes and market access, armed conflict

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executive summary

(from MINUSMA and/or the Armed Conflict Location and Event Database, ACLED)

and land agreements could be used to feed into, measure and inform contributions

to improving the prospects for peace. Finally, efficient complaints and feedback

mechanisms (CFMs), such as the one recently established by WFP, are essential

components of any effort to monitor possible inadvertent contributions to conflict.

Integration of Peace and Conflict into Processes, Systems and Capacities

To further evaluate and measure WFP Mali’s possible contribution to improving

the prospects for peace and integrate conflict sensitivity into all of its activities, the

research mission sought to assess WFP Mali’s current capacities and opportunities.

Conflict sensitivity does not currently appear to be systematically integrated into

project design or implementation processes, and existing monitoring tools are not

designed to track levels of conflict or peace. Other than their acceptability within the

community, the capacity of partners with regard to conflict sensitivity does not appear

to be assessed in any formal way, although reference is made to the principles of ‘do

no harm’ and accountability to affected populations as part of performance standards.

A conflict sensitivity lens in programming is increasingly becoming a formal donor

requirement, and WFP Mali has identified this as an area to be addressed and

strengthened.

Recommendations and way forward

At the end of phase 1 of the SIPRI/WFP knowledge partnership, recommendations

were made for inclusion in phase 2 and more generally to be carried out by WFP Mali.

•

Integrate conflict sensitivity into strategy implementation.

WFP Mali

should integrate conflict analysis and conflict-sensitive approaches into

all components of the operation across the programme cycle, including

programme design within the five-year CSP, and ensure that staff and

partners have adequate capacity.

A particular focus within the programme cycle is required on:

•

Targeting of programme participants.

Carry out operational research to

identify and integrate best targeting practices to minimize conflict risks

and maximize support for peace. Findings should be clearly integrated into

programme design and implementation.

•

Community-based participatory planning and accountability to the most

vulnerable.

Explore options for strengthening participatory planning

processes, working with local authorities to link community level participatory

planning processes to local government communal planning and budgeting in

order to support strengthened accountability.

•

Transformative change in relation to access to resources.

Advocate for and

support regional assessments of benefit capture linked to FFA interventions,

and for research programmes that achieve successful transformative change

in relation to land, water and other resources; integrate findings into land

agreements for use in resilience programming in particular.

•

Strengthening Evidence on Conflict and Peace Outcomes.

Explore partnerships

for gathering both quantitative and qualitative data that can capture changes

in the quantity and quality of peace.

1. Introduction

The World Food Programme (WFP) and the Stockholm International Peace Research

Institute (SIPRI) have established a Knowledge Partnership in order to build an

evidence base to assess whether—and if so how—WFP’s programming contributes

to improving the prospects for peace and to identify where—if anywhere—it has

unintended negative effects. The partnership will support future operational

refinement based on the research conclusions, and it is expected that this work will

inform an evaluation of WFP’s policy that is planned for 2021. Given the complex

context in Mali, where humanitarian, development and peace agendas intersect,

WFP Mali was selected to participate in the research as one of the four case studies

in Phase I intended to focus the development of the evidence base. The objectives of

the case studies were to understand in each context: WFP’s contribution to improving

the prospects for peace; how WFP might enhance its contribution to improving the

prospects for peace; and how WFP can measure its contributions to improving the

prospects for peace.

The case study research involved a review of programme documents and literature

on Mali, a review of the data gathered by WFP, discussions with staff and a field

visit to project sites in the Mopti Region, which involved focus group discussions

with programme participants and other community members. In addition, semi-

structured interviews were held with a wide range of key stakeholders in Bamako and

Mopti from among peer agencies and NGOs, civil society, local leaders, local partners

and representatives of the Malian Government, as well as with academics, donors and

experts in peace and conflict.

The case study focused on parts of the portfolio in the Transitional Interim

Country Strategic Plan (T-ICSP), such as food assistance for assets (FFA), general food

distribution (GFD) and the school meals programme, as well as on the social cohesion

project funded by the Peacebuilding Fund. To assess which aspects of the portfolio

appear to be most promising in terms of WFP’s contribution to improving the prospects

for peace, the case study employed the concept of theories of change (TOCs) as a tool

for facilitating analysis and stimulating new thinking about how programming might

contribute to improving the prospects for peace. The availability of relevant data to

measure WFP’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace was evaluated in

the light of these TOCs. The detailed methodology for the use of TOCs in this research

is included in the preliminary report published in June 2019.

Delgado et al. (note 1).

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2. Conflict context analysis

Situation profile

In early 2012, Mali’s road to recovery from a Sahel-wide drought was cut short by

a secessionist rebellion in the north of the country, which was subsequently largely

taken over by extremist groups. Strategic towns in northern Mali were captured,

culminating in a political crisis and a coup d’état. This in turn led to international

military intervention and the deployment of a UN peacekeeping mission, the United

Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA),

in the north. Seven years later, despite the existence of the Algiers Peace and

Reconciliation Agreement between the government and signatory armed groups,

the unravelling of Mali continues. Implementation of the agreement has been slow

and the north remains largely under the control of armed groups under the umbrella

organizations Coordination of Movements of Azawad and the ‘Plateforme’, as well as

the interim authorities. Clashes continue between signatory armed groups and several

groups have been accused of involvement in illicit trafficking across the Sahel and

North Africa. Terrorist groups operate in most parts of the north and frequently attack

the Malian Defence and Security Forces (MDSF), MINUSMA and France’s Operation

Barkhane, which carries out counterterrorism operations across the Sahel.

Since 2016, central Mali, which is not covered by the peace agreement, has

increasingly become a centre of instability due to the presence of extremist armed

groups. In the ‘three border zone’ between Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, rivalries

between farmers and herders over access to land, water and pasture continue to be a

source of inter-community conflict. This in turn has provoked the emergence of local

self-defence militia, which despite local mediation efforts are increasingly becoming

involved in atrocities against civilians. Extremist movements have exploited the

widespread feelings of marginalization and have all but replaced state authorities near

the Mauritanian border. The MDSF is under increasing pressure in central Mali and is

reliant on MINUSMA and Barkhane. The Force Conjointe du G5 Sahel (FC-G5S), a joint

force of five Sahel region countries, has been deployed to central Mali, but operations

to secure border areas have stalled due to a lack of resources and attacks against the

force.

State authority and presence in the region remain limited due to the prevailing

level of insecurity, targeted killings and the intimidation of state representatives.

The sustained and ongoing consequences of instability and conflict include

economic disruption, population displacements, the destruction of infrastructure

and disruption of development efforts. Government control and the ability to provide

basic social services are severely limited across much of northern Mali and the same is

becoming increasingly true of central Mali, where localized conflict has led to soaring

levels of displacement, the closure of schools and health centres, and reduced access

to markets.

Drivers of conflict

Negative climatic changes, the increasing occurrence of extreme weather events,

demographic pressures and changes in aspirations, where traditional livelihoods

strategies in rural areas no longer appeal to youth, are the root causes driving instability

and the gradual erosion of livelihoods in northern and central Mali. These are often

fuelled by a sense of injustice, marginalization and exclusion, as well as corruption

and the limited capacity of the state to deliver basic services to the population. As a

The four countries are Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger.

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conflict context analysis

result, Mali finds itself in a cycle of mutually reinforcing factors of vulnerability and

instability. The population in Mali, particularly youth, is affected by socio-economic

exclusion, deprivation and the erosion of traditional livelihoods exacerbated by

environmental degradation and climate change, and vulnerable to being drawn into

intercommunal tensions and recruited into armed violence or organized crime. Mali’s

economic growth—gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.3 per cent in 2017—is

largely based on export crops and gold mining, which are geographically concentrated

in the southern part of the country. This has not created opportunities for increasingly

disadvantaged rural populations, particularly in the north. About two-thirds of the

population live in rural areas and subsistence agriculture, livestock and fisheries

account for about one-third of Mali’s GDP and nearly 80 per cent of employment.

Mali has a young and fast-growing population. The fertility rate of six children per

woman is the third-highest in the world, and the population is projected to double by

2035. About 52 per cent of the population is under the age of 15. Future increases in

demand for land and water will put further strain on an already degraded resource base.

The lack of employment opportunities means that many unskilled youths migrate from

rural areas to urban centres. The urbanization rate of 5 per cent per year is among the

highest in the world and there is widespread urban poverty. The dearth of sustainable

livelihood strategies in many parts of Mali feeds a sense of disenfranchisement and

grievance, and potentially serves as a push factor for radicalization. The relationship

between urbanization and radicalization is complex—urbanization may be a valve for

releasing societal pressures that might otherwise result in youth radicalization.

Climate change, land degradation and demographic challenges have led to

increased competition for resources such as land, water and pasture for livestock. This

contributes to increased levels of inter-communal conflict between pastoralists and

agro-pastoralists, especially in the Sahelian zone. It is estimated that 60 per cent of

Malians live on degraded land, where soil degradation is accelerated by unsuitable

agricultural practices, overuse of land due to rapid population growth, overgrazing or

the lack of alternative livelihoods. Climate change and the related degradation of soils,

forests and water ecosystems further aggravate these conditions and thus levels of

poverty. In central Mali, where competition for land underpins much of the conflict,

the emergence of militant extremist groups is a recent evolution of much longer term

structural drivers of conflict.

Food insecurity and conflict in Mali

Food insecurity and conflict

Mali is one of the most food insecure countries in the world. Almost 25 per cent of

households are moderately to severely food insecure.

Most of the regions with the

highest levels of food insecurity are conflict-affected areas, such as Kidal (29 per

cent), Mopti (28 per cent), Gao (47 per cent) and Timbuktu (30 per cent). The 2018

population survey identified that the primary concern for 92 per cent of Malians is

to nourish their families, and that people believe that the Government of Mali should

make food security a priority.

While there is a general understanding of the devastating impact of conflict on food

security, there is less evidence that food insecurity itself is a factor in the outbreak of

conflict in Mali. Nonetheless, the underlying factors affecting food security, especially

Sukarieh,

M. and Tannock, S., ‘The global securitisation of youth’,

Third World Quarterly,

vol. 39, no. 5 (2018),

pp. 854–70.

Government of Mali,

Enquête Nationale sur la Sécurité Alimentaire et Nutritionnelle (ENSAN Mali)

(Le Système

d’Alerte Précoce du Mali, SAP: Bamako, Feb. 2019).

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improving the prospects for peace in mali

Box 2.1.

Humanitarian action in an integrated mission context

Established by UN Security Council Resolution 2100 (2013), the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated

Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) was deployed to Mali in 2013. MINUSMA has had its mandate

renewed by subsequent Security Council resolutions, the latest being Resolution 2324 (2018) which also

expanded it to cover central Mali. Its mandate is focused on supporting the implementation of the Algiers

Peace and Reconciliation Agreement. MINUSMA is the world’s second largest UN peacekeeping mission.

It has over 15 000 authorized personnel and an annual budget of $1.1 billion for July 2018 to June 2019. The

mission has also suffered one of the highest rates of fatalities of any peacekeeping operation.

The UN Country Team has been part of an integrated mission context since the deployment of MINUSMA.

The UN Development Assistance Framework, 2015–2019 (UNDAF+),which provides the overall framework

for the UN System’s development assistance, including MINUSMA’s contribution, contains a pillar on

Peace, Security and National Reconciliation.

The majority of WFP’s activities that could help to improve

the prospects for peace, as described in this report, fit within the UNDAF+ and the Humanitarian Response

Plan (HRP).

MINUSMA’s proximity to other security actors, including counterterrorism operations such as Operation

Barkhane and the Force Conjointe du G5 Sahel, means that some armed groups do not perceive it as

impartial. As a result, efforts to strengthen complementarity between the mission and UN agencies, as

required by Security Council resolutions and reflected in the Integrated Strategic Framework, must

carefully consider the risks of compromising on the principles of humanitarian action. The conflation of

counterterrorism, security and development/humanitarian agendas can risk undermining principles of

neutrality and impartiality, and losing the trust of local populations.

The UNDAF+ will be replaced by a UN Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework for 2020–

2024, which is currently under development by the UN Country Team with participation from MINUSMA.

Resolution 2423 (2018) requests the development of an Integrated Strategic Framework to orient the UN’s

overall vision, joint priorities and internal division of labour for sustaining peace in Mali and ensuring an

efficient division of tasks and complementarity of effort between MINUSMA and UN agencies, funds and

programmes.

food availability and access, exacerbate some of the root causes of conflict or fuel pre-

existing grievances to trigger conflict.

Inconsistent rains and more frequent and severe droughts linked to climate change

increase natural resource stresses and reduce food security, increasing tensions

especially between farmers and herders.

Food price volatility, market closures and

market access issues create shocks that further aggravate social tensions. A mix of

stress factors compounded by food insecurity intensifies the risk of conflict over

resources.

Food insecurity and violent extremism

Multiple perspectives were captured from across the stakeholder interviews on

whether food insecurity plays a role in recruitment for violence. The link to food

insecurity was weak—only one respondent identified hunger, or fear of hunger, as a

key recruitment driver. Other informants argued that there was no obvious profile for,

or driver as the main reason, why youth join extremist, armed or self-defence groups.

Unemployment and a poverty of opportunity were widely cited by informants, as

well as economic incentives. Renegotiating social status by joining a group, including

gaining a voice in decision making, a sense of injustice linked to heavy handed actions

by the MDSF, as well as anger over poor governance and/or poor resource management

were also cited. Self-defence against attack, to obtain protection and being caught up

in vicious circles of revenge were discussed. Some are simply forced to join.

Food assistance and migration

Globally, the correlation between food aid and migration is rarely direct, and access

to food or other forms of assistance is not the only determinant of people’s decisions

World Food Programme (WFP) and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO),

Monitoring

Food Security in Countries with Conflict Situations: A Joint WFP/FAO Update for the United Nations Security Council,

no. 4 (WFP and FAO: Rome, Aug, 2018).

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conflict context analysis

to migrate. However, in situations where survival strategies have been exhausted

and people are forced into distress migration, the availability of food assistance can

be considered an inducement to help enable people to remain in their home areas

throughout a period of severe stress. Furthermore, although the initial driver of

migration differs across contexts, onward movement is driven by a common desire

for stability, and livelihoods and food security are key pull factors.

The National Food

and Nutritional Security Survey (ENSAN) collects data on the movement of people,

including destination areas and reasons for movement/migration in the Mali context.

However, there is no hard evidence that food assistance helps to prevent migration in

Mali.

WFP,

At the Root of Exodus: Food Security, Conflict and International Migration

(WFP: Rome, 2017).

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3. WFP in Mali

WFP has been present in Mali since 1964. It provides assistance through a three-tier

approach focused on crisis response, resilience-building and capacity strengthening

of government services as part of its T-ICSP, 2018–19 (see figure 3.1). In addition to

the Country Office in Bamako, WFP has sub-offices in Koulikoro, Kayes, Mopti,

Timbuktu and Gao. Following on from WFP’s emergency operation in response to the

2012 crisis in northern Mali, WFP Mali has been supporting communities affected by

conflict and vulnerable households experiencing seasonal stress while building their

resilience to withstand shocks. There is an increasing convergence of activities on

central and northern Mali. In partnership with other UN agencies, the Government

of Mali and NGOs, the country office has begun to design food security activities that

can be used as platforms for joint peacebuilding initiatives.

WFP plans to transition

to a five-year Country Strategic Plan by 2020.

Figure 3.1.

WFP Mali Transitional Interim Country Strategic Plan, 2018–19

Increasing insecurity in northern and central Mali and terrorist threats limit WFP’s

access to populations in need. WFP Mali implements most of its activities through

local and international non-governmental organization partners. Monitoring is

mostly carried out by third parties. The fact that WFP has limited access to monitor

implementation could potentially affect the likelihood of improving the prospects for

peace and limit WFP’s ability to ensure that interventions are conflict-sensitive.

WFP Mali programming and improving the prospects for peace

While the research mission focused on specific activities in the Mali T-ICSP that

could either contribute to improving the prospects for peace or inadvertently generate

tensions or aggravate conflict, the researchers considered the entire programming

cycle. Thus, the analysis and the imputed theories of change encompass entry points

and risks that go beyond the mere delivery of an activity.

WFP

Mali receives funds from the Peacebuilding Fund and the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated

Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)-managed UN Trust Fund for Stabilization and Peace in Mali.

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wfp in mali

In figure 3.2, the programme design and implementation cycle is supplemented by

the prospects for doing harm and the entry points for contributing to peacebuilding

through WFP programming. Poor design or implementation of WFP programming

can be a source of grievance that creates the potential for future conflict and possible

harm, as represented by the red arrows and letters. Possible contributions to improving

the prospects for peace are represented by green arrows and numbers. The examples

are illustrative rather than exhaustive.

Figure 3.2.

Entry points for peacebuilding in the programme design and implementation cycle

Where the programme fails in delivery (the red arrows), a vicious circle is created

in which a promised service is not delivered and lack of trust in the service provider is

reinforced by the lack of delivery. In these situations, exclusion and capture reinforce

negative expectations and make trust in service delivery mechanisms more unlikely

in the future.

•

Exclusionary targeting criteria.

The determination of who will or will

not receive resources is the most significant conflict flashpoint in all forms

of aid. Even with carefully crafted vulnerability-based criteria, the most

vulnerable may coincide with specific ethnic or linguistic groups and thus

feed grievances.

•

Exclusion in planning processes.

Exclusive definitions of who constitutes

the ‘community’ and/or significant power dynamics within the community

can result in groups being excluded from participatory community planning

processes or having no voice within them. Processes can reinforce the

domination of some by others.

•

Diversion.

Diversion or misappropriation of resources by powerful

individuals can feed grievances and heighten tensions over corruption.

Where the programme understands and adapts to a conflict context (the green

arrows), it contributes to a virtuous spiral, creating an expectation among recipients

that is reinforced by successful delivery and further reinforces expectations of service

delivery in the future.

The numbered paths below demonstrate how successful

delivery can, theoretically, reinforce this virtuous spiral and contribute to the

prospects for peace.

World

Bank,

World Development Report, 2004: Making Services Work for Poor People

(World Bank: Washington,

DC, 2004).

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improving the prospects for peace in mali

•

People have expectations about fairness that are reinforced positively when

the vulnerable are properly targeted for assistance. (Even when they are not

recipients, people usually value the fact that the vulnerable are recipients.)

•

Inclusive processes such as community-based participatory planning can

create opportunities for divided community members to work collectively

to identify and plan to address shared needs, and build relationships across

existing divides through repeated interaction.

•

Successful service delivery creates expectations of future delivery; if

these services are delivered by the government this can reinforce trust in

government/state functions.

•

Successful delivery of basic needs, such as food, can create entry points

for other work to address conflict drivers, by building relationships and

credibility with communities.

•

Feedback mechanisms can capture conflict-sensitivity concerns early on and

help to demonstrate accountability mechanisms at the grassroots level.

•

Monitoring mechanisms can track known conflict-sensitivity risks and

expected contributions to peace, possibly using non-indicator-based

techniques.

Bank,

World Development Report, 2015: Mind, Society and Behavior

(World Bank: Washington, DC, 2015);

and Narayan, D. et al.,

Voices of the Poor: Crying Out for Change

(Oxford University Press: New York, 2000). This was

reinforced by reporting from the interviews with cooperation partners and during the field research.

World

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4. WFP’s contribution to improving the prospects

for peace in Mali

The research team articulated a number of TOCs linked to WFP programming

activities. Drawing on the available documentation and a literature review, and more

broadly on interviews with key informants about project aims and results, these

TOCs were narrowed down to those included below for which there is support from

the evidence base. Attribution of WFP’s contribution to improving the prospects for

peace is complicated by the complexity of the conflict context and the difficulties in

measuring resilience in such an environment (see box 4.1). The TOCs are linked to the

Strategic Outcomes of WFP Mali’s T-ICSP (see figure 3.1).

Strategic Outcome 2: Vulnerable people in food-insecure and post-crisis areas

are able to meet their basic food and nutrition requirements throughout the

year

With a focus on vulnerable people in recurrently food-insecure and post-crisis areas,

this strategic outcome aims to build resilience among targeted populations, particularly

children, pregnant and lactating women, and those affected by periodic shocks and/or

acute malnutrition. This objective includes unconditional cash transfers to vulnerable

people affected by seasonal shocks and the provision of school meals in targeted areas.

Two separate theories of change were proposed for the school meals programme:

TOC 1:

local communities mobilize themselves to manage the school meals programme

through school management committees (SMCs, see box 4.2),

then

they will demonstrate

good governance at the grassroots level and strengthen cooperation and trust among

community members.

Evidence from the peacebuilding field relevant to this theory of change

The assumptions underpinning this theory of change relate to: (a) demonstrating good

governance at the grassroots level; and (b) strengthening trust between community

members.

Demonstrating good governance. The assumption is that if accountable processes

are applied at the local level, these will produce learning-by-doing and provide a

demonstration effect of accountable processes at the local level. Lessons from the

peacebuilding field show that building good governance from the ground up requires

long time lines and significant per capita investments in order to bring about changes

in governance practices.

Strengthening trust. The assumption is that participation in common projects of

mutual interest and structured interaction among previously divided communities

will help to reframe perceptions of the ‘other’, build trust, dispel negative myths

and facilitate changes in perceptions and attitudes. The fact that school meals and,

more broadly, the management of education-related activities is a non-contentious,

positively perceived aspect of the community’s life is crucial. Providing a safe space

to engage in dialogue could potentially be extended to other, more contentious, issues

once relationships have been established. This is based on contact theory—whereby

positive interaction is believed to humanize ‘the other side’, with a particular emphasis

See e.g. Humphreys, M., Sanches de la Sierra, R. and van der Windt, P.,

Social and Economic Impacts of Tuungane:

Final Report on the Effects of a Community Driven Reconstruction Program in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo

(Columbia University: New York, 2012).

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improving the prospects for peace in mali

Box 4.1.

The link between resilience and conflict prevention in the Mali context

The drivers of conflict and violence in Mali existed prior to 2012 but the onset of violence has coincided with

multiple drivers occurring simultaneously. Communities that otherwise might be able to accommodate

one or more of these shocks find that coping mechanisms (institutions, intra-community and inter-

community trust, assets) are tested and can break when exposed to the multiple shocks that Mali is facing.

Manifestations of violence, including violence between ethnic groups and violent extremism, represent

failures of these overlapping systems to resolve conflict/tensions between persons and groups. Building

resilience in Mali will not just require building trust between ethnic groups and trust in state institutions.

It will also require the creation of new social safety nets and institutions that can accommodate climate

change and demographic pressures. Strengthening resilience by building inclusive and participatory

planning processes, reducing stresses on populations and creating new assets and livelihoods that reduce

the impact of stresses can help to prevent violence.

on working on shared needs. There is an expectation that these contacts can be scaled

up and form relationships between divided groups to manage tensions and prevent

violence.

Some research also highlights the need for work

within

communities to

build trust as a prerequisite for strengthening state–citizen relationships.

Nurturing

peaceful transactions and solidarity within society provides an enabling environment

for communities to develop a shared understanding of core threats and take collective

action, including engagement with the state.

Conflict sensitivity considerations

WFP’s use of cash transfers to SMCs to enable them to procure food and prepare meals

has the potential to stimulate the local economy by increasing demand. However, locally

produced rice is relatively expensive in many regions of Mali, so each SMC spends

a proportion of its budget on procuring imported rice through local traders. Thus,

there are missed opportunities to support the local economy to the greater benefit of

the community, which may also represent a missed opportunity to strengthen peace

through enhanced economic opportunities.

Data availability

WFP Mali’s current monitoring mechanisms do not assess whether—and if so how—a

functioning SMC contributes to increased cooperation and trust locally. Metrics alone

cannot measure changes in levels of conflict/tension within a community that could be

attributed solely to the school meals programme, as local conflicts will have multiple

drivers and the SMC will, at best, be only a partial influence on wider community

trust and cooperation. Demonstrating good governance could be assessed by verifying

the existence and quality of the involvement of minorities in the SMC, and/or by

assessing community perceptions of the performance of the SMC. Consultations and

surveys could also capture evidence of how SMCs are used to resolve conflicts within

a community or to deliver other services.

According to critiques of contact theory, increasing contact can result in worsening prejudice, especially when

the contact is involuntary or when there is a large power differential between the different groups in the contact.

See Babbitt, E., Chigas, D. and Wilkinson, R.,

Theories and Indicators of Change: Concepts and Primers for Conflict

Management and Mitigation

(USAID: Washington, DC, 2013). In addition, there is little evidence on the longevity of

attitude change, and problems of ‘re-immersion’ are widespread. A number of studies also highlight that individuals

may collaborate in a minimalistic sense to achieve personal economic benefit but actively prevent this from

affecting relationships across divides. See Woodrow, P. and Oatley, N., ‘Practical approaches to theories of change

in conflict, security and justice programmes’, Part I, ‘What they are, different types, how to develop and use them’,

Practice Products for the Conflict, Crime, and Violence Results Initiative (CCVRI)

(UK Department for International

Development and CDA Collaborative Learning Projects: London, 2013).

Spearing, M.,

Addressing State Fragility from the Bottom Up Through Inclusive Community Governance: Exploring

Theories of Change

(CARE Netherlands: The Hague, 2016). See also United Nations Development Programme (UNDP),

Local Governance in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Settings: Building a Resilient Foundation for Peace and Development

(UNDP: New York, 2016). This capacity of groups to agree on how to live and govern together is one of three key pillars

within UNDP’s Social Contract Framework for Governance.

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wfp’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace in mali

Box 4.2.

School management committees

School management committees (SMCs) are purpose-driven working groups which are representative

of local communities. All public schools are required to have an SMC. Their mandate is to manage and

take decisions on all aspects of the school’s life. SMCs are a combination of an administrative body and an

elected institution. Some of its members are elected by the local community while others are ex-officio.

WFP Mali’s school feeding programme is implemented with and through SMCs, which receive monthly

cash transfers to procure food and prepare meals for the students. The SMC mobilizes volunteer cooks and

collects contributions from the community.

Analysis

The relevance of this theory of change is context-dependent. If schools serve divided

communities where levels of trust and cooperation are low, then it may be an effective

mechanism for strengthening relationships locally. However, in homogenous

communities where trust and cooperation are already strong, it may have limited

utility. Mixed schools that operate across communities and are attended by children

from several ethnic/livelihood groups are common in Mali. WFP, however, does not

currently collect data on whether school populations are mixed in this way. Nor does

it have any information on local tensions or divisions. If WFP Mali considers that the

potential contribution of SMCs to improving the prospects for peace is sufficiently

significant to warrant further investigation, then it should:

Recommendation 1.

Conduct qualitative research across a small sample of SMCs to understand whether

there is enhanced trust and cooperation among the SMC members and, where this is

transferring to the wider community, what enables this transfer or ‘ripple’ effect to

take place.

Recommendation 2.

Gather data to map where SMCs are working with mixed schools in divided

communities to understand whether, beyond WFP’s traditional school feeding aims,

the programme has an added value in such communities.

Recommendation 3. Further assess the use of cash in the school feeding model, in

particular its potential ‘stimulus effect’ on the surrounding community.

TOC 2:

the school meals programmes contribute to keeping schools open,

then

they

may strengthen the stabilizing role of education among communities affected by crisis.

Evidence from the peacebuilding field relevant to this theory of change

Services such as education, health care and the provision of water and sanitation

allow societies and economies to function. They are often disrupted by conflict.

If a community loses hope of access to basic services, this can lead to anger. The

reinstatement of basic services restores normality and a belief in a more peaceful

future.

The resumption of services, most notably schools, can be a more tangible

‘peace dividend’ for a population than security sector or constitutional reform.

demonstrates that the reasons that led to the closure are no longer applicable. Thus,

reopening schools or keeping schools open can provide people with a sense of normalcy,

safety and unbroken routine in times of crisis.

of the United Kingdom,

The UK Government’s Approach to Stabilisation: A Guide for Policy Makers

and Practitioners

(Stabilisation Unit: London, 2019).

McCandless, E.,

Peace Dividends and Beyond: Contributions of Administrative and Social Services to Peacebuilding

(UN Peacebuilding Support Office: New York, 2012).

Government

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improving the prospects for peace in mali

WFP’s school meals programme in this context can provide an incentive to keep

schools open by using the school institution as an instrument for the delivery of food,

which results in improved attendance and attentiveness in class and helps create a

generation of human capital.

Thus, school meals can directly contribute to restoring

a sense of normalcy in crisis-affected societies. Furthermore, in situations where

other social support structures have broken down, school feeding can enhance the

role of schools as social support structures for children. It may thus be possible for

educational, nutritional and psychological gains to emerge from this existing school

infrastructure and for benefits to accrue synergistically.

Conflict sensitivity considerations

In Mali, schools close for a range of reasons. Some are threatened because they teach

the official curriculum, which is referred to as ‘the French school’. School closures

or the reopening of schools has a major signalling effect in Mali. Jihadi groups have

targeted schools for attack and often close schools on securing control of an area to

undermine state authority and as a rejection of Mali state policy on secularism in

schools.

However, many schools also close because their working conditions are

difficult due to the limited presence of the state in the area.

WFP school canteens are only established in public schools that teach the official

curriculum established by the Malian state. In zones with a significant presence of or

controlled by extremist groups, schools have received threats, in many cases related

to the education of girls, and some have been forced to close. Working only with public

schools could be perceived by armed groups as an abandonment of impartiality, and

at worst contribute to putting pupils, teachers and WFP staff and partners in harm’s

way.

Data availability

WFP’s process monitoring tools collect some data on the functioning of a school:

•

If the school does not work, why? (suspension of the school canteen/

insecurity/no participation of community, etc.)

•

Has the introduction of cash in the canteen caused conflicts within the

community? If yes, what are the reasons for this conflict?

However, WFP does not collect any specific data to substantiate how school meals

programmes might contribute to keeping schools open or to stabilizing conflict-

affected communities.

Analysis

The opening or closure of schools has a major signalling effect in conflict-affected

areas of Mali. Where jihadi groups have targeted schools for attack the Government

of Mali has made the reopening of schools a symbolic act through a back to school

campaign. While the country office does not collect much data relevant to this TOC,

external studies show that the school meals programme has a positive impact on the

survival of schools, mitigating the effects of conflict on education and stability in the

community.

A recent study using quasi-experimental methods has shown that in

Moussa, S., ‘Keeping schools open: School feeding in conflict and crisis’,

SCN News,

24 July 2002, pp. 54–59.

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO),

The Hidden Crisis: Armed Conflict

and Education

(UNESCO: Paris, 2011).

See e.g. USAID, ‘Projet “Activité d’Appui à l’Education En Situation d’Urgence-USAID-EESA”: Analyse Rapide

des Besoins liés à l’Education (RNA) dans les régions de Ségou, Mopti, Tombouctou, Gao et Kidal’ [Project ‘Emergency

Education Support Activity-USAID-EESA’: Rapid Analysis of Educational Needs (RNA) in the regions of Ségou, Mopti,

Timbuktu, Gao and Kidal], 2016; Education Emergency Support Activity (EESA), Rapid Education Risk Assessment

(RERA) for the regions of Ségou, Mopti, Tombouctou, Gao, and Kidal. Bamako, USAID Mali; and Plan Ireland,

Falling

Through the Cracks: Barriers to Conflict Affected Malian Children’s Education

(Plan Ireland: Dublin, 2014).

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wfp’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace in mali

conflict-affected areas of Mali, school feeding increased school enrolment rates by 11

percentage points between 2012 and 2017 and increased the duration of schooling by

an average of 0.5 years per child.

In addition, school meals reduced the engagement

of children in child labour. These effects were more significant in areas where conflict

intensity was higher.

Schools are a key platform for the delivery of relief and development interventions,

and school feeding is a critical enabler of schools remaining open. Thus, schools can

play a role in restoring normalcy and stabilizing local communities, both directly and

as a vehicle for further interventions.

Recommendation 4.

Monitoring tools should be further developed to capture the outcomes of the

programme on local peace and stability. This would involve a baseline assessment

of local conflicts, qualitative or quantitative study of the impact of schools on

stabilization and local peace, and assessment of the impacts on local governance and

service delivery.

Strategic Outcome 4: Populations in targeted areas, including vulnerable

smallholder farmers, have enhanced livelihoods and the resilience to better

support their food security and nutrition needs all year round

This strategic outcome aims to build resilience among targeted populations by

preserving and increasing the productive capacity of their resource base and promoting

increased revenues through technical support and strengthening the linkages to

markets. It involves FFA activities,

as well as smallholder agriculture market and

value chain support (SAMS).

WFP’s joint pilot project funded by the Peacebuilding

Fund (see box 4.3) fits within this outcome. The research team proposed two potential

theories of change for this strategic outcome.

TOC 3:

natural resources are enhanced and equitable agreements are reached on their

use,

then

conflict/tensions over natural resource access between competing user groups

will be reduced.

Evidence from the peacebuilding field relevant to this theory of change

The proposed theory of change assumes that conflict over natural resources is caused

either by reduced or limited supply or by inequitable use of resources.

Enhancing the supply of resources. In areas where different factors, such as

demographic change, market pressures and environmental change, push people

to exceed the sustainable limits of natural resources, competition over access to

resources intensifies. Rehabilitating and enhancing natural resources to increase their

availability and/or productivity can reduce competition for such natural resources.

Equitable use of resources. A major lesson learned from a wide range of programmes

combining conflict resolution and natural resource management (NRM) is that

the design of the NRM components must consider the conflicts related to resource

management. To maximize peacebuilding outcomes, such programmes should create

E. et al., ‘School feeding or general food distribution? Quasi-experimental evidence on the educational

impacts of emergency food assistance during conflict in Mali’,

Innocenti Working Paper

no. 4 (2018), UNICEF Research

Office, Innocenti, Florence.

FFA activities are undertaken to develop, restore and rehabilitate productive community infrastructures, and

designed through participatory community processes.

SAMS involves activities to strengthen the livelihoods of vulnerable farming communities, such as technical

support, facilitating access to markets, enhancing value-addition and reducing post-harvest losses.

Aurino,

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improving the prospects for peace in mali

Box 4.3.

Peers for Peace: Building social cohesion in the Mopti and Ségou Regions

This pilot Peacebuilding Fund project is jointly implemented by the Food and Agriculture Organization

of the United Nations, the World Food Programme (WFP) and the United Nations High Commissioner

for Refugees, with WFP as the lead agency. The project targets 500 households (peers for peace) and

involves strengthening community-based conflict mediation mechanisms and enhancing livelihoods and

community infrastructure. The project’s theory of change is that: If community structures for conflict

prevention and transformation are strengthened, and local livelihoods are improved through income

generating strategies, then communities will be more resilient to violent conflict related to natural resource

management, social fabric will be restored and social cohesion will increase.

The research team met with cooperation partners in Mopti but was unable to visit project sites for security

reasons. Significant changes have been observed by cooperation partners in the commune of Diankabou in

the Koro Cercle of Mopti region, which is covered by the project, but these are not yet properly reflected

in reporting. In particular, there has been a decrease in the severity and extent of inter-community

violence. Prior to the intervention, there had been numerous cases of inter-communal violence between

Fulani pastoralist and Dogon farmers that involved killings and the burning of villages. Dogon community

members were subsequently unable to access fields near the Fulani village. In the initial planning phase,

community members were too afraid to enter each other’s village. However, tensions have significantly

reduced since the beginning of the project. There has also been an increase in economic interdependence

between villages—Fulani allow Dogon to bring their animals to their village to drink from the pastoral well

that was built through the project, while the Dogon are selling vegetables to the Fulani that were grown in

the market gardens supported by the project. In addition, village credit and savings groups have provided

an opportunity for empowerment through access to small credits while allowing members to build chains

of solidarity and dialogue. There has also been an increase in the movement of people between villages.

Anecdotal evidence of increasing trust has been noted by partners but current metrics do not capture these

observations well. Alternative sources of data could better inform outcome indicators:

•

the number of conflicts resolved through supported conflict resolution mechanisms and the level

of satisfaction with the result;

movement maps to show increased interaction between communities;

data to capture economic interactions, through markets and economic integration;

Most Significant Change could be used to capture evidence of change among community members

for donor reporting.

The changes observed in the conflict context are stark. At the same time as the project was starting up,

however, the Malian Defence and Security Forces were deployed to the area to prevent inter-communal

violence and to fight violent extremist groups. Security force bases also appear to have been recently

installed in other project locations and this may provide an alternative explanation for the sudden and

significant change in levels of violence. This needs investigation.

a clear system of ownership, create mechanisms to resolve disputes and promote

equity in benefits.

Conflict sensitivity considerations

When designing activities that aim to improve or expand the natural resource base

it is important to consider who will ultimately benefit from or be affected by the

intervention. This also applies to WFP’s work to construct or rehabilitate productive

assets. In order to prevent conflict over the ownership and usage of, for instance,

improved land, WFP’s cooperation partners are brokering agreements within

communities to determine land usage rights. In the context of an oral tradition, these

agreements bring in state actors to formalize land status in the legal realm. This is a

practical response to previous instances where landowners, which had been willing to

allow vulnerable communities to use their land, reasserted their claims to ownership

and exclusive usage once the land had been improved through FFA interventions.

Sensitivity concerns emerged over this practice during the field research, and in some

cases landowners appeared to capture significant benefits from the rehabilitation of

lands/assets even though the activity is aimed at vulnerable community members. To

strengthen WFP’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace, a transformative

approach could be taken whereby work to improve land/water resources strengthens

See e.g. USAID,

Water and Conflict: A Toolkit for Programming

(USAID: Washington, DC, 2014).

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access for vulnerable groups, achieves social justice and avoids reinstating inequitable

access. The struggle over power and resources is at the heart of many conflicts in Mali,

and it is important to examine the potential and risks of such a transformative approach

while also understanding where minimum standards of ‘do no harm’ fall. Contesting

traditional practices such as these raises new risks. Challenging social stability in a

wider conflict context could significantly destabilize communities and lead to open

violence. There are also practical considerations. The timescale during which WFP

must be present and accompany a community through such a transformational process

is long term. When embarking on FFA programming in Mali, WFP seeks to support

communities for a minimum of three years in order to achieve sustainable results.

Data availability

An external evaluation of a joint resilience programme by WFP and the Food and

Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) identified that FFA had a

positive impact on social cohesion.

The evaluation attributes this contribution to the

improvement of livelihoods through FFA (asset creation/rehabilitation) and SAMS

(support to smallholder organizations) and to the negotiation of land usage/grazing

rights. A cost-benefit analysis of FFA carried out by WFP Mali in 2018 also identified

that inter-ethnic clashes had been reduced by the creation of assets through FFA

activities.

The country office does not collect data on what usage agreements have been

brokered where or the perceptions of equity of those involved. Nor is any data gathered

on whether the agreements hold, although it is believed that if an agreement had been

overturned WFP would have heard about it through the cooperation partners. It is

not clear how widespread the problem of benefit capture is, and this issue warrants

further interrogation.

Analysis

Among the root causes of escalating patterns of violence in central Mali are land-

and resource-related conflicts. Farmer/herder conflicts, which usually coincide with

ethnic cleavages, have intensified due to climate change and population growth, and

are sometimes leveraged by armed groups. By enhancing infrastructure to reduce

land degradation and water loss, FFA activities enhance supply and thus directly

help to prevent conflicts over resources at the community level. To strengthen the

contribution to improving the prospects for peace, FFA programming should address

the ownership/usage issues identified above, which should also promote stronger

equity in benefits. Given that FFA and SAMS are part of a comprehensive approach to

resilience strengthening for the Sahel led by WFP’s Regional Bureau in Dakar, efforts

to further examine conflict sensitivity issues linked to FFA should have regional

ownership.

Recommendation 5.

Advocate for the Regional Bureau to take the lead on research on programmes to

achieve successful transformative change in relation to land. Support the Regional

Bureau to conduct such research and scope the potential for the WFP to play a role in

land and water issues. Integrate the findings into land agreements, in particular for

use in resilience programming. This could involve identifying best practices regionally

and WFP,

Évaluation conjointe FAO/PAM du projet ‘Appui à la résilience des populations vulnérables au nord

du Mali,

Rome, 2019, <www.fao.org/evaluation - www1.wfp.org/independent-evaluation>. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0

IGO.

Sissoko, K. and Troré, M.,

Evaluation des Impacts (Coûts/Benefices) des Activités Food for Assets (FFA) au Mali

(WFP Mali: Bamako, 2019).

FAO

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Box 4.4.

Community-based participatory planning

Community-based participatory planning (CBPP) is a ‘bottom up’ tool that ensures communities have a

strong voice and will take the lead in setting priorities for activities such as food assistance for assets. It is

used to develop multi-sectoral plans tailored to local priorities, and to ensure prioritization and ownership

by communities.

In Mali, WFP applies a ‘watershed approach’ where all settlements on the same watershed are represented

in the CBPP. This is because they face the same problems and the effects of an intervention will also affect

neighbouring communities. This offers a forum where, for instance, farmers and herders can meet and

interact.

among agencies that have worked directly on transformative change in relation to

land agreements. This would then allow a more informed debate on the possible role

of WFP in this area.

TOC 4:

communities mobilize themselves to analyse their vulnerabilities through an

inclusive and participatory process and work together to strengthen livelihoods,

then

this

will strengthen the inclusion of youth and collaboration within and between communities.

Evidence from the peacebuilding field relevant to this theory of change

This TOC is underpinned by both contact theory (for a discussion of how participatory

processes can strengthen trust between community members see TOC 1) and the

assumption that FFA interventions can create alternative sources of power and

purpose through community-based participatory planning (CBPP) processes, thereby

providing a practical avenue for youth to air their views and see their suggestions put

into action (see box 4.4). This can be particularly relevant to enabling the inclusion of

otherwise marginalized youth, who can experience empowerment through enhanced

livelihoods options.

Conflict sensitivity considerations

Given the different power relations within the community, not all community members

will be able to participate in the CBPP process on equal terms. This could be linked

to intra-community caste differences or gender inequality, or because pastoralist

communities are not integrated into the CBPP process.

Data availability

While WFP and its partners document the CBPP process, the country office does not

have the tools or processes to evaluate whether it contributes to increased collaboration

and trust within and between communities, or if this spills over into activities/spheres

that are not part of any given intervention. WFP Mali has commissioned a study from

an external consultant on the possible contribution of WFP’s programming to social

cohesion, and the CBPP process will be among the activities covered by this research.

WFP collects data to determine whether a management committee exists for

a specific asset, and to monitor its composition and functioning, but WFP does not

consider the quality of processes, such as who is included in decision making. No data,

for instance, is collected concerning youth perceptions on sense of empowerment or

prospects for the future. Survey data on youth economic migration and perceptions

of prospects for the future would fill this data gap. A more qualitative enquiry would

also be helpful here.

As noted above, reduced conflict between livelihood groups has been documented

in a recent evaluation, although no detail is given on the incidence of conflicts.

Thus,

Peace Direct,

Evaluation of Livelihoods Support and Peacebuilding Project

(Peace Direct: Kismayo, Somalia, 2019).

Sissoko and Troré (note 24).

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current data does not provide full insights into the possible effects on peace or possible

conflict-sensitivity concerns.

Analysis

CBPP brings communities together to discuss their problems and identify solutions. If

the process includes representatives from divided communities and takes an approach

that promotes equity and tolerance, it has the potential to contribute to improving

the prospects for peace. As discussed under TOC 1, critics of contact theory note

that interaction can worsen a situation if the contact is forced or power is clearly

asymmetrical. If CBPP processes were successfully changing attitudes to ‘other’

groups, this would be demonstrated through collaboration stretching beyond the CBPP

process and wider interactions between divided communities. The country office’s

initiative to commission an external study on social cohesion could provide valuable

insights, but more evidence, including on the potential exclusion of vulnerable groups

and youth, will be needed. Since CBPP is a corporate tool of WFP, such evidence

could also be sought at the corporate or regional levels. A deeper understanding of

the aspirations and frustrations of youth seems warranted. The relationship between

WFP programming, social cohesion and peacebuilding is further discussed in box 4.4,

which describes the Peers for Peace Peacebuilding Fund project.

Recommendation 6.

Enhance monitoring mechanisms to understand youth perspectives on the future,

empowerment and sense of purpose.

Strategic outcome 5: Government and civil society have strengthened capacity

to manage food security and nutrition policies and programmes by 2023

Food security and nutrition policies are at the forefront of the government’s

development policy agenda. This strategic outcome aims to address the root causes of

food insecurity and hunger by strengthening the capacity of government at the central

and local levels to manage and implement food security and nutrition policies.

TOC 5:

government enhances the provision of basic social services and increases its

accountability and responsiveness,

then

the citizen-state link will be strengthened by the

state signalling its willingness and ability to respond to the population’s needs.

Evidence from the peacebuilding field relevant to this theory of change

Weak service delivery and failures of governance have been widely recognized as

underlying causes of conflict. There is a widespread assumption that underpins a

wide range of state building programming that public administration and social

services—delivered in an effective and equitable manner—can enhance contact and

accountability between citizen and state, thereby providing performance-based

legitimacy for the state. Routine interaction with the state over service delivery, such

as school feeding or nutrition services, may be the citizen’s only routine interaction

with the state. However, the evidence for this assumption is mixed and some argue that

there are too many variables to demonstrate a direct causal linkage between enhanced

service delivery and increased state legitimacy.

Service delivery models with built-in

redress mechanisms, which foster relationships between service providers and users,

appear to have greater success in shifting attitudes.

Government of the United Kingdom (note 14).

Slater, R., Merry, M., Tan de Bibiana, M. and Jang, S.,

Service Delivery in Fragile Settings

(SIPRI and ODI:

Stockholm and London, 2016).

See

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improving the prospects for peace in mali

In Mali, WFP works closely with the Ministère de la Solidarité et de l’Action

Humanitaire, which is responsible for the overall coordination of social protection

activities through various line ministries. WFP and Jigisemejiri, the national social

protection platform, have been collaborating for several years on different aspects

of social protection, such as nutrition, the productive orientation of safety nets and

school meals, and have developed standards for technical norms on asset creation

with the competent ministries.

Conflict sensitivity considerations

WFP Mali’s current approach to participatory planning processes risks bypassing,

or even undermining, decentralized planning processes and tools. Decentralized

tiers of governance, such as districts and communes, have their own planning cycles

and tools, which despite the participation of local technical services are separate

from WFP’s three-pronged approach.

If WFP aspires to strengthen the citizen-

state link through capacity building with government, better service provision and

greater accountability, the three-pronged approach needs to feed into local planning

processes.

On the other hand, when government, including at decentralized levels, fails to

deliver and/or when resources are diverted or misappropriated by the authorities, this

can undermine the credibility of WFP and its programmes as well as its contribution

to improving the prospects for peace.

Data availability

WFP does not collect data to measure perceptions of service delivery or trust. External

entities such as Afrobarometer ask questions about service delivery and accountability.

The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) incorporate the governance agenda

into SDG 16 on peace, justice and strong institutions, and have adopted a specific

target (16.6) on developing effective, accountable and transparent institutions at all

levels.

In Mali, civil society has set up a ‘veille citoyenne’ (citizen watch) mechanism

to collect information at the community level and consolidate it at the partner level.

This could be a resource for monitoring perceptions of local service delivery.

Analysis

The capacity of the Government of Mali to provide essential social services in a

substantial portion of the country is constrained by instability, insecurity and

uncertainty over the peace process. In addition, many informants noted that the

government does not seem to have any intention of improving the public services

provided to the population or that services cannot be delivered due to lack of effective

resource allocation, including from the centre to local authorities, insufficient

capacity, weak accountability lines, bureaucratic inefficiency or, in some cases,

misappropriation of resources.

Decentralization efforts support participatory budgeting and commune-level

planning to increase the accountability and responsiveness of the state. Budgets and

plans also need to respond effectively to the priority needs of the most vulnerable, but

three-pronged approach (3PA) is an innovative programming approach developed by WFP in consultation

with governments and partners. The aim is to strengthen the design, planning and implementation of programmes

on resilience building, safety nets, disaster risk reduction and preparedness. The approach consists of three elements:

integrated context analysis, seasonal livelihood planning and community-based participatory planning.

While this may also be true of the emergency response planned through the cluster structure that complements

government response plans, this is especially problematic for medium- to long-term development-oriented activities

such as SAMS and FFA.

For more information on SDG 16, see United Nations, ‘SDGs Knowledge Platform: Sustainable Development Goal

16’, <https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg16>.

The

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there is often a lack of structured participatory analysis of need or of prioritization in

decentralized planning, as well as insufficient analysis of issues related to livelihoods.

The most vulnerable are not able to express their priorities effectively and their

participation at the commune level, let alone district or regional level, is often limited.

In significant parts of the country, the state is not present or has only very limited

capacity. In northern Mali, for instance, interim authorities, usually affiliated with

signatory armed groups, take responsibility for service provision in the areas under

their control. In many situations, cooperation partners’ coordination with local

authorities is limited and the capacity for service provision is low in most cases, as

many civil servants are still displaced. Despite these constraints, however, there is

still untapped potential for WFP to continue and scale up its capacity building and

support, especially at the lower tiers of governance.

Recommendation 7.

Support the creation of complaints and feedback mechanisms (CFMs) for government-

led national social protection programmes, building on internal best practices and the

expertise accrued from WFP’s own CFMs, to be applied to school feeding and other

social protection instruments.

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5. Cross-cutting issues: Conflict sensitivity,

participatory planning and data

As section 4 demonstrates, a number of issues transcend individual project or

programmatic approaches to delivery and are cross-cutting for WFP Mali. Among the

major issues are: (a) conflict sensitivity concerns; (b) the challenges and opportunities

presented by participatory planning; (c) data, or the difficulties of designing

measurement and monitoring processes specific to measuring contributions to

improving the prospects for peace; and (d) process, system and capacity issues. These

issues and associated recommendations are discussed in more detail below.

Conflict sensitivity concerns

During the research in Mali, a number of potential conflict sensitivity concerns

emerged that may warrant further investigation. While the concerns related directly to

the TOCs and the specific activities of WFP Mali are described above, some concerns

are of a more general nature and related to all or several activity types.

Targeting of programme participants

The targeting process of choosing who does or does not get access to resources is the

most common conflict sensitivity flashpoint the world over. Conflict sensitivity risks

relating to targeting emerge in two forms.

Inclusion/exclusion errors on participant/distribution lists

The problem of inclusion/exclusion errors appears to be widespread in Mali, and not

specific to WFP but also important for other agencies. The most pressing problem

is if armed groups or elites try to influence or control who gets on to a distribution

list and to use this as a mechanism to reinforce their power over a community and to

legitimize their position and role.

Another exclusion concern is related to possible tensions between internally

displaced persons (IDPs) and host communities. Elsewhere, assistance based on

displacement status has provoked grievances if host community members are equally

vulnerable. In Mali, WFP provides emergency food assistance to IDPs immediately

following displacement for 90 days. After 90 days, both IDPs and host populations are

assisted based on their level of vulnerability. This is an excellent conflict sensitivity

practice. Providing assistance on the basis of vulnerability rather than victimhood can

help to prevent tensions building between IDP and host communities.

Inputs are collected and redistributed on the basis that all community

members are vulnerable

In some circumstances the distribution committee provides a distribution list to

WFP but when inputs are provided (food/cash), these are collected by the chief and

redistributed across the entire community on the basis that all community members

are vulnerable. Such redistribution of food assistance was described by cooperation

partners, and views were generally mixed as to whether this occurs voluntarily or

involuntarily—although it is clear that if a family decided to keep their rations and to

refuse to participate in the redistribution they would be ostracized. The scale of the

practice is open to debate, but it appears to be fairly widespread in the Segou and Mopti

regions. From a conflict sensitivity perspective there are risks that efforts to reach

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cross-cutting issues

the most marginalized could end up reinforcing their marginalized status within the

community, with no power to control the assets targeted to them and the potential

for abuses of power. If there is no clear understanding and acceptance of the selection

criteria among communities, this could contribute to increasing the grievances of

excluded groups—especially if a chief were to favour certain groups.

This issue is related to the role of traditional leaders and cannot be addressed

without considering possible unintended consequences. If traditional leaders and their

practices are undermined, this could threaten the social fabric, making communities

more vulnerable to shocks of any kind in a context of instability and tension. A

complaint and feedback mechanism (CFM) is already in place. Increasing community

awareness of the CFM could help WFP understand the scale of the phenomenon and

to inform decision making on the actions required to address the issue.

Recommendations on revisiting targeting of individuals and households for

assistance

Based on discussions concerning targeting practices and the various challenges

encountered, it is recommended that the country office explore best practices on

the selection of beneficiaries and integrate these into programming. Targeting of

assistance to individual beneficiaries should not just aim to understand and avoid

exclusion and inclusion errors. It should also explore other potential risks where

targeting might contribute to increased tensions or miss opportunities to positively

contribute to improving the prospects for peace. This would build on and complement

a recent review and mapping of targeting approaches by the Regional Bureau in Dakar.

The operational research would involve examining the targeting methods used by

a broad range of agencies in Mali and regionally, and how these approaches affect

conflict or peace. It should feed into a systematic revision of processes within WFP

Mali, including enhanced provision of information to communities. This operational

research and integration into WFP processes should be carried out in the period June

2019 to May 2020 and focus on:

•

Identifying best practices on preventing exclusion and abuses;

•

Exploring the different approaches to engaging traditional chiefs or local

government authorities in generating participant/distribution lists;

•

Identifying red lines and providing guidance for WFP;

•

A revision of WFP’s targeting practices.

The research could potentially be conducted in conjunction with other humanitarian

actors in Mali and/or other WFP country offices.

Recommendation 8.

The country office should review and improve its targeting, identify best practices that

will reduce the risk of exclusion and other conflict sensitivity risks, and incorporate the

results into its programming. WFP Mali should also enhance information provision to

communities.

Diversion

In the process of distributing and delivering food assistance in areas controlled by

non-state armed groups or where there is only a weak state presence, resources have

occasionally been looted by armed actors and or criminal groups, or misappropriated.

In 2018, there were several instances of convoys transporting commodities being

ambushed and commodities being either stolen or destroyed. There have also previously

been incidents where vouchers have been looted from cooperation partners’ offices or

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from distribution points. The transfer modality can mitigate this risk to some degree.

E-vouchers, for instance, can reduce the risk of resource diversion and are currently

being used by WFP in most locations in Mali. Furthermore, when distributions are

made as in-kind assistance, local powerbrokers and chiefs can use this to solidify

their own position and claim credit for having secured the food assistance for the

community. This issue seems to be less of a concern with cash-based transfers, such

as vouchers, where vulnerable households have agency and choice when receiving

assistance.

Transformative change in relation to access to resources

Given the conflict sensitivity considerations that may exist around benefit capture,

there is interest in understanding the extent of this issue in Mali. Activities by which

WFP can facilitate communities in their negotiation of land agreements are part of

a broader regional approach to resilience strengthening in the Sahel led by WFP’s

Regional Bureau. Thus, efforts to further examine concerns around land agreements

should ideally be regionally led. The country office should support these efforts and

explore best practice among agencies that have worked directly in this area in Mali

and the Sahel (see recommendation 5).

Integrating conflict sensitivity into strategy implementation

In the lead up to the start of the Country Strategic Plan (CSP) 2020–24 in January 2020,

WFP Mali should undertake a number of initiatives to define how to better integrate

conflict sensitivity into the implementation of the CSP. WFP Mali has expressed

strong interest in integrating conflict sensitivity into its programming and ensuring

that WFP staff and partners have sufficient capacity to identify and act on conflict

sensitivity concerns. This could involve training in conflict sensitivity as well as other

capacity building measures and the identification of specific conflict sensitivity risks

and adjustments to programme design, as well as specific efforts to more systematically

integrate conflict sensitivity into all stages of programme design and implementation

processes, and to build partnerships with other agencies with expertise in the field

of conflict and peace. These efforts will combine support from the Emergencies

and Transition Unit at WFP Headquarters with new partnerships with external

actors, such as peacebuilding NGOs with the capacity to train country office staff

and partners on conflict sensitivity, or Malian social scientists/anthropologists who

can help deepen understanding of local contexts. The country office has committed

to implement this recommendation before the start of the CSP in January 2020. In

order to achieve this, WFP HQ should work with WFP Mali to articulate a road map

for integrating conflict sensitivity to identify the actions in more detail, including the

identification of sources of support for component elements.

Recommendation 9.

WFP Mali should integrate conflict analysis and conflict-sensitive approaches into

all components of the operation across the programme cycle, including programme

design under the five-year Country Strategic Plan, and ensure that staff and partners

have adequate capacity.

Community-based participatory planning processes

Informants raised concerns about the inclusivity of participatory planning processes

in general (not specific to WFP). These involved:

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2 3

•

Sections of communities not being involved in the processes, especially

herders, either because they are absent long term or because they are not

deemed to be part of the community as they are not permanently present.

•

That lower status sections of the community are not able to speak up in

community-wide processes as they are expected to defer, in particular to the

chief and his close circle.

The CBPP process in Mali is typically managed by the cooperation partners and

local technical services, with support from WFP. They brief the community on the

process, which the community then takes leadership of. There are specific checks and

balances to ensure participation from across all socio-economic classes. There may

be potential to contribute to improving the prospects for peace through the CBPP

process, through:

•

More inclusive processes at the community level; and

•

Strengthening accountability relationships between communities and local

government if they participate in the CBPP and ensure that the CBPP is linked

to planning and budgeting processes and tools at the commune level.

Traction on local governance will increase when planning processes shift from a

WFP tool for FFA/SAMS planning to a commune-level tool that promotes community

priorities for decentralized planning and budgeting. Delivering on this transformation

would involve supporting a certain level of integration of the community planning

process into decentralization processes.

The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) uses an approach that

is centred on rebuilding citizens’ confidence in the state. Its work concentrates on

strengthening local authorities by supporting them to develop and resource a local

plan. This contrasts with the WFP approach, in that WFP invites local authorities

into planning processes initiated by WFP at the local level rather than participating

and delivering through a plan developed by the local authorities. The SDC approach

thus helps to make local authorities accountable and can serve to minimize the risk

of capture of resources. While the cluster system may preclude this approach from

being used for humanitarian assistance, it could be applied to more developmental

programming. Given the country office’s intention to strengthen government capacity

and to gradually hand over seasonal response and school feeding interventions in the

longer term, and the country office’s aim to work at a decentralized level, the SDC

approach may warrant further consideration, particularly if the country office wishes

to engage in more transformative programming, notably on building citizen-state

links. WFP Mali has already begun initiatives to include school feeding programmes

in communal budget plans with advice from the SDC.

Community-based participatory planning processes and accountability to the most

vulnerable

WFP Mali is currently exploring a potential collaboration with decentralization

actors, such as the German Agency for International Cooperation and the SDC among

others, to work on the linkage between participatory community level planning and

the communal/decentralized level, as a contribution to a strengthened accountability

framework and the progressive restoration of the social contract.

Recommendation 10.

Explore options for strengthening participatory planning processes and working more

directly through local authorities to link community level participatory planning

processes to local government communal planning and budgeting in order to support

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strengthened accountability. This would include reviewing the CBPP methodology

and the application of CBPP to ensure that marginalized groups are not excluded from

decision making.

Data

Measuring contributions to peace presents challenges not only because it is hard to

collect data in conflict environments, but also because the results sought are typically

intangible, such as shifts in levels of trust and tolerance, or in perceptions of ‘the

other’, as well as potential wider ripple effects that transform cultures or norms. Many

interventions are based on experimental designs that do not have a well-developed

evidence base, and lessons from one context may not be transferable to another.

Addressing conflict is often a complex problem in which causal pathways are emergent

or adaptive.

WFP Mali already collects detailed data for a variety of monitoring purposes.

Although these were not designed for the purpose of assessing contributions to

improving the prospects for peace, some adaptations to these existing tools could help

to capture relevant evidence. However, this data should be complemented with other

qualitative data to provide a more nuanced understanding of attitudes and relationships,

and the changing nature of conflict and violence in its areas of operation. WFP Mali

has commissioned additional qualitative studies to achieve this, most notably a study

by a local consultant of the effect of WFP programmes on social cohesion.

With regard to physical security, a number of questions are already asked in the

process monitoring tools, including questions about distribution, access and security.

These can be cross-referenced or cross-tabulated with data on the time taken to reach

distribution, the time waiting for distribution, the gender and age of participants/

recipients, and so on, to provide descriptive statistics on security risks. Because data

can be geo-coded, these statistics can be compiled across beneficiary communities to

identify regions where security is a constraint on delivery. Additional questions can be

added to the current post-distribution monitoring mechanisms to gather information

related to security. One example might be: ‘In the past 12 months, how often have you

or someone in your family felt unsafe in the neighbourhood?’

Further questions on

the movement of people, such as on whether family members have recently migrated or

returned, and on investments in farms or businesses, would help capture perceptions

on prospects for the future.

Data on markets and changes in markets through, for example, the market

information system and the agricultural market observatory can be used to measure

changes in market access, security of access to markets and, depending on the level

of specificity of the analysis, the types of products brought to market, which might

reflect increased inter-ethnic economic interdependence. For instance, if milk or meat

become more available in a market this might mean that local Fulani have gained

access to that market, which would previously have been impossible.

Furthermore, conflict data from MINUSMA and/or ACLED can be overlaid with

activities—for example, school feeding and conflict, FFA/SAMS and conflict, and food

distribution and conflict—to identify places where interventions are limited or affected

by conflict prevalence and/or places where distribution is linked to or correlated with

but not necessarily a cause of a decrease in conflict. A simple application would be to

Mali Round 6 Questionnaire, ‘The quality of democracy and governance in Mali’, 2014, <http://

afrobarometer.org/sites/default/files/questionnaires/Round per cent206/mli_r6_questionnaire.pdf>

Afrobarometer,

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cross-cutting issues

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compare general food distribution with armed conflict over time to identify the level

of access and the impact of conflict on delivery.

Statistics on land agreements, usage rights and land titling are not immediately

available. If possible, visual records (scans) of agreements and statistical records

(counts) of such agreements and their geo-referenced implementation should be used

to monitor WFP involvement in land agreements. Additional qualitative enquiry will

be needed to enable the country office to understand the impacts of such agreements.

A CFM is an essential component of any effort to monitor possible inadvertent

contributions to conflict. WFP has recently established a CFM, which is a significant

achievement. Other, more open-ended, qualitative processes are also needed.

Strengthening Evidence on Conflict and Peace Outcomes

During the case study, several monitoring tools were reviewed and adjusted in

the light of inputs from the research team. Following the mission to Mali, further

discussions were held to assess whether monitoring and evaluation tools collect data

relevant to the proposed TOCs. While quantitative data can provide useful insights,

understanding WFP’s interaction with conflict (positive or negative) requires more

open-ended inquiry to understand why and how change happens. Surveys may not

be the best tool. Strong interest was expressed by the country office in collecting

more qualitative data, in particular by building partnerships with other agencies with

expertise in this area.

Recommendation 11.

Explore possible partnerships for gathering qualitative data, including through non-

survey methods, that can capture outcomes on peace and conflict.

Integration of peace and conflict into WFP Mali’s processes, systems and

capacities

The research team also sought to assess the current capacities of and opportunities for

WFP Mali to further evaluate and measure its possible contribution to improving the

prospects for peace and integrating conflict sensitivity into all of its activities.

Staff capacity and interest in conflict sensitivity

The country office benefits from employing a staff member in a specialist conflict/

peace role. Beyond this post, some staff members are familiar with the concept of

conflict sensitivity, even though there has not been any staff-wide training on conflict

sensitivity or peacebuilding.

Integration of conflict analysis into design and implementation

Conflict has been taken into account implicitly in context analysis, programming and

implementation, but the country office does not systematize the integration of conflict

sensitivity and analysis. At the macro level, broad strategic frameworks, including

the T-ICSP and the National Zero Hunger Strategic Review, analyse the context of

ongoing conflict and insecurity, and their impact on food security in Mali. At the

micro-level, conflict sensitivity does not appear to be integrated into project design

or implementation processes. For example, there have been recent attempts to add a

conflict layer to the integrated context analysis by integrating external conflict data

a useful resource with multiple layers of relevant data on transhumance migration routes, ACLED conflict

data, displacement and water access, among other things, see <www.earthtime.org>.

For

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improving the prospects for peace in mali

sets such as ACLED and that of the Joint Mission Analysis Centre.

However, the

country office does not have any clear guidelines on how this tool can be used for

targeting. Similarly, CBPP by its nature considers conflict and risk in the locality, but

does not appear to require conflict analysis as part of its processes.

Monitoring of impacts on conflict/peace

Existing monitoring tools were not designed to track conflict or peace. Some

questionnaires in post-distribution monitoring capture protection risks around

location and procedures for distribution to prevent negative consequences from WFP’s

intervention.

Staff capacity to monitor conflict and peace, however, is low. Onsite

project monitoring and the recently launched CFM provide opportunities for feedback

during implementation. The social cohesion study and the current Peacebuilding Fund

project potentially provide opportunities to monitor WFP’s contribution to improving

the prospects for peace or any inadvertent negative effects.

Donor requirements

Donors may increasingly make conflict sensitivity a formal requirement in award/

contribution documents and will expect the country office to demonstrate compliance

and capacity.

current 3PA guidance does not require conflict analysis. A full review of the 3PA methodology from a

conflict/peace perspective is planned by WFP HQ.

WFP, ‘Response to the Sahel crisis: Lessons learned from PDM in Mali’, Presentation by the Monitoring and

Evaluation team, Bamako, Mali, Feb. 2019.

The

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