Udenrigsudvalget 2019-20
URU Alm.del Bilag 70
Offentligt
2118147_0001.png
THE WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME’S
CONTRIBUTION TO IMPROVING
THE PROSPECTS FOR PEACE
Preliminary Report
caroline delgado, suyoun jang, gary milante
and dan smith
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
2118147_0002.png
STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL
PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into
conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966,
SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources,
to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public.
The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the
publications of the Institute.
GOVERNING BOARD
Ambassador Jan Eliasson, Chair (Sweden)
Dr Dewi Fortuna Anwar (Indonesia)
Dr Vladimir Baranovsky (Russia)
Espen Barth Eide (Norway)
Jean-Marie Guéhenno (France)
Dr Radha Kumar (India)
Dr Patricia Lewis (Ireland/United Kingdom)
Dr Jessica Tuchman Mathews (United States)
DIRECTOR
Dan Smith (United Kingdom)
Signalistgatan 9
SE-169 70 Solna, Sweden
Telephone: +46 8 655 97 00
Email: [email protected]
Internet: www.sipri.org
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
2118147_0003.png
THE WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME’S
CONTRIBUTION TO IMPROVING
THE PROSPECTS FOR PEACE
Preliminary Report
caroline delgado, suyoun jang, gary milante
and dan smith
June 2019
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
© SIPRI 2019
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or
transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of SIPRI or as
expressly permitted by law.
The views expressed here reflect the findings of the authors and do not necessarily represent the
views of the World Food Programme.
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
Contents
Acknowledgements
Abbreviations
1. Introduction
Background
Overview of findings
The knowledge partnership between SIPRI and WFP
WFP programming and the prospects for peace
Box 1.1. Timeline of World Food Programe/SIPRI Partnership (Phase 1)
2. WFP’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace
Theories of change
Meta-theories of change derived from this study
Box 2.1. Five meta-theories of change
Box 2.2. Enhancing socio-economic status and empowerment: The Gastromotiva
project in El Salvador
Box 2.3. The Optimising School Meals Programme and government capacity building
in Kyrgyzstan
Box 2.4. Reducing water loss in disputed territories between Kyrgyzstan and
Tajikistan
Box 2.5. Brokering agreements for land usage rights in El Salvador
Box 2.6. Peers for peace: Building social cohesion in the Mopti and Ségou
regions of Mali
3. Cross-cutting findings
Conflict sensitivity
Targeting
Holistic approach
Partnerships
Climate change
Measuring peace
4. Enhancing WFP’s contributions to improving the prospects for peace
Conflict analysis to ensure conflict sensitivity
Targeting
Holistic approach
Partnerships
Measurement of contributions to improving the prospects for peace
Box 4.1. A conflict sensitivity, gender and environmental risk screening checklist
in Kyrgyzstan
Box 4.2. Supporting return and reconciliation
5. Summary of recommendations
Annex A.
Imputed theories of change from the four case study countries
v
vi
1
1
2
3
4
2
7
7
8
8
10
11
12
13
14
16
16
18
19
20
20
21
23
23
24
25
26
27
24
26
30
32
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
Acknowledgements
The authors at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) would like
to begin by gratefully acknowledging the cooperation of the World Food Programme
(WFP) research team in Rome: Francesca de Ceglie (Programme and Policy Officer),
Rachel Goldwyn (Senior Conflict-Sensitivity and Peacebuilding Advisor) and David
Branca (Programme and Policy Officer), under the guidance of Rebecca Richards
(Chief of Emergencies and Transition)
The authors would also like to express their gratitude to the WFP country offices’
staff, administration and management for their support and guidance during the
field research: Andrew Stanhope (Country Director), Elia Martinez and Juan Ramon
Pacheco of the WFP El Salvador Country Office and Enrico Cristiani at the Regional
Bureau in Panama; Sally Haydock (Country Director), Marianne Ward (Deputy
Country Director), Yasuyuki Misawa, Salar Khudadad and Khansae Ghazi in the
WFP Iraq Country Office; Silvia Caruso (Country Director), Ibrahim Diop (Deputy
Country Director) and Jonas Holm Klange from the WFP Mali Country Office;
and Andrea Bagnoli (Country Director), Keiko Izushi (Deputy Country Director),
Elmira Shishkaraeva, Sharifbek Sohibnazarov and Suiunbek Aidarov from the WFP
Kyrgyzstan Country Office.
We extend our appreciation to all informants in the other United Nations organ-
izations, donor agencies, international/local NGOs, civil society and local partners
including government representatives, in the four case study countries. Sincere
gratitude also goes to WFP’s beneficiaries who kindly shared their insights with the
SIPRI–WFP research team.
The authors are grateful to the SIPRI editorial team for its important work in realiz-
ing this publication.
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
Abbreviations
CBPP
CDD
CDR
CFM
CRF
ENSAN
FAO
FFA
FFT
GCF
GFD
IDP
IFAD
mVAM
NGOs
PBF
SDGs
TOC
UNICEF
VAM
WFP
WHO
Community-based participatory planning
Community-driven development
Community-driven reconstruction
Complaints and feedback mechanism
Corporate results framework
National Food and Nutritional Security Survey
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Food Assistance for Assets
Food Assistance for Training
Green Climate Fund
General food distribution
Internally displaced person
International Fund For Agricultural Development
Mobile vulnerability analysis mapping
Non-governmental organizations
United Nations Peacebuilding Fund
United Nations Sustainable Development Goals
Theory of change
United Nations Children’s Fund
Vulnerability analysis and mapping
World Food Programme
World Health Organization
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
1. Introduction
Background
After decades of progress in reducing world hunger, the number of undernourished
people worldwide has been increasing since 2014. The two main drivers of this change
are violent conflict and climate change.
1
Today, an estimated 2 billion people live in
fragile and conflict-affected areas of the world where they are extremely vulnerable
to the impact of conflicts and disasters.
2
In addition, there are more crises that affect
more people and last longer than a decade ago. While most humanitarian crises have
a number of causes—extreme weather events, compounded by social inequalities and
inadequate governance structures being prominent among them—violent conflict is
part of the cause of an estimated 80 per cent of humanitarian needs.
3
The World Food Programme (WFP) is the specialized food assistance organization
of the United Nations. It is the largest humanitarian organization fighting hunger
worldwide, delivering food assistance in emergencies and working with communities
to improve nutrition and build their resilience. It is well-used to meeting human needs
in conflict-torn settings and well-equipped to that end. The WFP is dual-mandated
to support social and economic development to ensure long-term food security while
also addressing humanitarian crises. Even before the launch of its policy on how to
work in peacebuilding settings in 2013, it had begun to explore how food assistance
could complement broader efforts to prevent violent conflict and achieve peace.
4
As the global context of humanitarian need has become more demanding over the
past half-decade, there has been pressure to achieve greater efficiency. At the same
time, responding to the complex character of many of these emergencies, the UN
Secretary-General and member states have called for more integrated interventions
that address root causes and offer better support for long-term, sustainable solutions
and building resilience.
5
These have been picked up by the current Secretary-General
in an ambitious agenda for the prevention of violent conflict.
6
Recognizing the linkages between development, peace and the humanitarian
action needed to achieve this, WFP signed up to the ‘Peace Promise’ in 2016. This
promise defines the need for collective action across the humanitarian, development
and peace spheres as essential for ‘ending human suffering by addressing the drivers
of conflict and vulnerability and reducing subsequent humanitarian needs’.
7
Studies
such as the 2018 UN and the World Bank report
Pathways for Peace
demonstrate
that investments in resilience can ultimately yield greater progress on achieving the
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and less expenditure of time and resources on
crisis response and recovery.
8
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), International Fund For Agricultural
Development (IFAD), United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), World Food Programme (WFP) and WHO (World
Health Organization),
The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World, 2018
(FAO: Rome, 2018).
2
United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA),
Global Humanitarian Overview, 2019
(OCHA: New York, 2019), p. 6.
3
World Bank, ‘Fragility, conflict & violence: overview’, updated 2 Apr. 2019.
4
WFP, ‘WFP’s role in peacebuilding in transition settings’, WFP/EB.2/2013/4-A/Rev.1, Rome, 2013; and WFP,
‘Update on WFP peacebuilding policy’, WFP/EB.2/2014/4-D, Rome, 2014.
5
United Nations, General Assembly, ‘Review of the United Nations Peacebuilding Architecture’, A/70/L.43, New
York, 1 Apr. 2016.
6
Guterres, A., ‘Remarks to the Security Council open debate on “Maintenance of International Peace and Security:
Conflict Prevention and Sustaining Peace’”, 10 Jan. 2017.
7
See United Nations, General Assembly, Report of the Secretary-General, ‘Progress Report on the Prevention
of Armed Conflict’, A/60/891, 18 July 2006; and UN Peacebuilding Support Office (PBSO), ‘The Peace Promise:
commitments to more effective synergies among peace, humanitarian and development actions in complex
humanitarian situations’, [n.d.].
8
UN and World Bank,
Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict
(World Bank:
Washington, DC, 2018).
1
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
2118147_0010.png
2
wfp’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace
Box 1.1.
Timeline of the World Food Programme/SIPRI Partnership (Phase 1)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
February 2018
June 2018
September 2018
October 2018
November 2018
December 2018
January 2019
March 2019
March 2019
April 2019
May 2019
June 2019
Memorandum of Understanding signed and first joint event in Stockholm
Side event at WFP Executive Board
Phase 1 Kick-off workshop in Rome
Methodology and desk review
Kyrgyzstan case study mission
Stockholm event on Conflict and Hunger (exhibition and discussion meeting)
Mali case study mission
El Salvador and Iraq missions
Workshop on findings and initial debriefing with WFP Directors
Finalization of global report
Stockholm Peace and Development Forum
Side event at WFP Executive Board and release of WFP/SIPRI report
While it was ready to play its part in the Peace Promise and the integrative approach
across the humanitarian, development and peace nexus, WFP had questions about
its capacity to do this, to do it efficiently and to do it without undermining its core
mandate. Against this background, in 2018 WFP and the Stockholm International
Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) established a knowledge partnership. Its overall goal
is to provide a basis in knowledge for strengthening WFP’s contribution to improv-
ing the prospects for peace. This report is the first product of this partnership; it
reflects pilot phase research and the interim findings derived from studies of just four
countries where WFP works: El Salvador, Iraq, Kyrgyzstan and Mali.
Overview of findings
The four case studies reveal that significant components of WFP’s programming in
the four countries do indeed contribute to improving the prospects for peace. Whether
this finding can be generalized to WFP as a whole is not clear: the sample is too small
for that kind of assessment to be made. In some of these cases where WFP is helping
to improve the prospects for peace, it is clear that this was part of the intention behind
the project. In other cases, that is not so clear; it could be that some members of the
project teams or country offices had peace in mind as they developed or implemented
the project, but it is hard to be sure. This is because a key element that is normally
found in programming on peace and conflict issues is missing in WFP’s work. This
missing element is what is known as the theory of change, which explains why a
peace-positive outcome is expected from the project.
When working in conflict-affected countries, it is possible for external assistance
to have negative as well as positive effects. It is axiomatic that interventions in
conflicted-affected countries should do no harm. The four case studies therefore
explored whether WFP’s programming in the four countries had had an identifiable
effect in exacerbating conflict or increasing the risk of conflict. The results are mixed
and there are some instances of WFP programming having a marginal negative effect,
or risking one, as well as cases where WFP staff could not be sure whether there
were increased risks or did not know how to find out. This is because while WFP
staff proficiently and professionally analyse many key issues of need and of impact in
designing programmes and projects, they do not generally take the conflict context
specifically and explicitly into account. In this sense, WFP programming often shows
a lack of conflict sensitivity.
The four case studies also revealed that many WFP staff are aware of much of the
basis for this sort of concern about their work. In fact, information and insights from
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
introduction
3
WFP staff in-country form a significant part of the research evidence, on the basis of
which this report is able to outline issues of concern. This suggests a willingness—at
least in these country offices—to take on the challenge of contributing to improving
the prospects for peace, figuring out what is needed in order to be well-equipped for
meeting that challenge, and making the requisite changes.
On the basis of these four case studies, the research suggests that WFP will need to
make changes in its practice if it is to fulfil its own stated ambitions and commitments
under the Peace Promise and in other policy statements. These changes may be only
partly about changing what it does, and focused more on the question of how it does
its work. Based on these case studies, the clear indication is that these changes would
affect the background analysis WFP carries out to support its programming, how it
plans, what partnerships it has and how it treats them, and how it assesses its work,
impact, achievements and deficiencies. This report closes by proposing five areas of
change.
The knowledge partnership between SIPRI and WFP
SIPRI and WFP established their partnership in order to build a basis in evidence
for assessing whether, and if so how, WFP’s programming contributes to improving
the prospects for peace and identifying where, if anywhere, it has unwanted negative
effects. The partnership will support future operational refinement based on the
research conclusions and it is expected that this work will inform the evaluation of
WFP’s policy, planned for 2021.
Phase 1 began by identifying three key questions, the answers to which could build
the evidence base needed to assess WFP’s programming from a peace perspective,
refine practice and develop policy. The questions are:
1. What is WFP’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace?
2. How could WFP enhance its contribution to improving the prospects for
peace?
3. How can WFP measure its contributions to improving the prospects for
peace?
The validity of research questions needs to be tested in practice. Thus, one of the aims
of Phase 1 was to assess whether these were indeed the right questions to be asking.
As indicated above, four case study countries were chosen. The aim was to research
WFP programming in diverse situations, ranging from conditions of outright violent
conflict to cases where a transition from violence to sustainable peace is under way. In
this way, looking across a variety of contexts, it would be possible to identify common
factors that contribute to or detract from the capacity to improve the prospects for
peace. This analysis involved desk research and field research.
The desk research reviewed the literature on the link between food security, conflict
and peace to establish the state of evidence and analysis to date. This would form the
foundations on which the research could build and enable the research team to outline
a theoretical framework for the work. The literature review will be included in a later
report.
The field research began with a review of country office and programme documen-
tation. This formed the basis for deciding which programmes to focus on. Field
research also featured assessment of current data sets, to identify how far they help to
understand whether there has been a contribution to peace or conflict, to assess the
data gaps and to see how best WFP could plug these. However, the core of the field
research and the activity on which most time was invested was qualitative assessment
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
4
wfp’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace
through focus group discussions, research interviews involving key stakeholders
within and outside WFP, and visits to project sites. Detailed findings from the field
research will be included in four country case study reports to be published at a later
date.
WFP programming and the prospects for peace
Peace and conflict are both complex phenomena and both have many different forms
and qualities. Not all conflict is violent and some conflict is necessary and beneficial;
social progress, for example, is often driven by conflict. Similarly, not all kinds of
peace are equally desirable, and a robust and resilient peace can persist even while
conflicts are pursued as long as there are institutions that can manage them. Policies
and activities in conflict-affected countries need some degree of clarity about what
kinds of conflict at what stage in their evolution are to be addressed, and similarly
what kind of peace is the objective. An intervention that aims to reduce the harm
being inflicted in the middle of a hot war is likely to look completely different from
an intervention aimed at contributing to a sustainable, long-term peace. Some care
is therefore required in identifying at what points in the evolution of a conflict or
the unfolding of a peace process WFP programming is most likely to make a positive
contribution.
There is evidence that food security interventions can help to address potential
long-term drivers of conflict—often referred to as root causes—and thus to mitigate
and prevent violence.
9
Such interventions include livelihood support to increase agri-
cultural productivity, programmes to rehabilitate and improve access to relevant
natural resources and measures to reduce food price volatility. These interventions
contribute to peace in the long term, not to stopping the violent escalation of conflict
in the short term.
Two further forms of linkage between food security and peace are worth exploring.
The first is the positive impact of improving social cohesion and reconciliation on
reducing violence. The second is the equally positive effect of creating capacities and
institutions to deliver essential services and thereby manage future shocks. Both
highlight possible contributions to creating a climate that is favourable to improving
the prospects for peace. The evidence for this is less developed. However, there have
recently been growing attempts to understand food security not just as a stand-alone
sector that addresses nutrition and livelihoods, but rather as a broader social aim that
is relevant to each of the humanitarian, development and peacebuilding sectors alike.
A number of impact evaluations on food security programming have shown that equit-
able and inclusive processes of food assistance can help build resilience and social
cohesion at the community level and there is evidence to show that these outcomes are
positive for peaceful development.
10
Similarly, supporting the provision of basic social
services, such as health, education and social safety nets, can instil greater confidence
in governments.
11
It may also help build government capacity, accountability and
legitimacy.
12
This reinforces the case for recent peacebuilding initiatives launched by
T. R., ‘Can food assistance promoting food security and livelihood programs contribute to peace
and stability in specific countries?’, Paper presented at the High-Level Expert Forum on Food Insecurity in Protracted
Crisis, Rome, 13–14 Sep. 2012; and FAO, ‘Sowing the seeds of peace for food security: Disentangling the nexus between
conflict, food security and peace’,
FAO Agricultural Development Economics Technical Study
2 (FAO: Rome, 2017).
10
Hendrix, C. S. and Brinkman, H., ‘Food insecurity and conflict dynamics: Causal linkages and complex feedback’,
Stability: International Journal of Security & Development,
vol. 2, no. 2 (2013), pp. 1–18; and Breisinger, C. et al., ‘Building
resilience to conflict through food-security policies and programs: Evidence from four case studies’,
2020 Conference
Paper 3
(IFPRI: Washington, DC, 2014).
11
Breisinger (note 10).
12
World Bank,
World Development Report: Conflict, Security and Development
(World Bank: Washington, DC, 2011)..
9
Frankenberger,
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
introduction
5
the UN Peacebuilding Fund (PBF) that include a food security component as one of
the basic social services.
13
However the international actors that seek to contribute to greater peace in the
world express their ambitions, it is fair to ask what they mean by peace. The response
to the question is not purely theoretical by any means. It directly affects operational
decisions and realities. Peace is perceived in different ways by different people at
different times in different cultures and political systems. For peace is not just the
absence of violence, although achieving that is important.
It may be helpful to think of peace as a spectrum that extends from what is often
called ‘negative peace’—the absence of violence—to ‘positive peace’, an environment in
which disputes and conflicts can be pursued and resolved without physical violence
that harms people and communities, by finding collaborative solutions to the issues
at stake.
14
A negative peace can be a necessary precondition for peacebuilding—
the breathing space that makes the transition to new forms of social and political
relationships possible in a country hit hard by violent conflict. However, a lasting
negative peace can also be undesirable and a block to the pursuit of positive peace.
Even in the absence of direct, physical violence and repression, the social and political
order is sustained in some countries by inequitable systems and institutions that keep
people in states of vulnerability and marginalization. This is a form of structural vio-
lence.
15
A positive peace is a shift of actors away from structural violence and towards
collaborative solutions and development, and thus towards self-sustaining peace.
Peacebuilding seeks to achieve changes within individuals (e.g. attitudes, behaviours,
capacity); in relationships between people (e.g. communication, interaction); in the
way institutions operate (e.g. institutional policies and practices that exclude certain
groups); and at a fundamental cultural level (e.g. discriminatory attitudes that cut
across communities).
16
Peacebuilding can contribute to either a positive or a negative
peace. Its contributions can be calibrated to different timescales—to contribute to a
relatively short-term stabilization in a country coming out of recent armed conflict, or
equally to contribute to long-term stability and a transition to a positive peace.
Attempts to contribute to building peace of any kind go astray if they are treated as
technical solutions to technical problems. Peace is complex. If regarded as a system it
should be thought of as an ecosystem rather than a machine. A multiplicity of different
aspects are involved and when they are in balance with each other, peaceful progress
is the result. When the balance is disturbed, however, something may go wrong.
Workable approaches depend on how the problems are understood and framed, on the
capacity of the stakeholders to solve the problems (or parts of the problems) and on the
vision of those driving the peacebuilding process.
International organizations, being external to all the conflict-affected and peace-
building situations they address, cannot be the ones that ultimately drive the peace
process. They can, however, offer vital assistance. In this role of attempting to help to
make a lasting, self-sustaining peace possible, the response to the complex challenges
of the task requires a holistic approach. That is to say, each actor needs to understand its
place in a process that is far larger than its own activities. The least of the risks entailed
in not paying proper attention to the bigger picture is that the efforts of one counteract
the efforts of another. To contain these risks and ensure they do no harm, international
13
UN Peacebuilding Support Office (PBSO),
Peace Dividends and Beyond: Contributions of Administrative and Social
Services to Peacebuilding
(UN PBSO: Washington, DC, 2012).
14
Milante, G., ‘Sustaining peace and sustainable development in dangerous places’,
SIPRI Yearbook 2017:
Armaments, Disarmament and International Security
(Oxford University Press: Oxford, 2017).
15
Galtung, J., ‘Violence, peace, and peace research’,
Journal of Peace Research,
vol. 6, no. 3 (1969), pp. 167–91.
16
Lederach, J. P.,
Building Peace: Sustainable Reconciliation in Divided Societies
(United States Institute of Peace:
Washington, DC, 1997).
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
6
wfp’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace
actors may need to undertake, for example, more consultation or collaboration with
partners than they are used to, or more piloting and experimentation, or they may
require increased feedback loops and monitoring.
17
Because of these complexities, assessing progress in the long-term enterprise of
building peace and gauging the impact of external assistance can be difficult. Because
of the multiplicity of factors shaping the prospects for peace, and in the absence of
counterfactuals, it is always difficult and can be impossible to attribute progress to the
impact of an individual actor or programme.
18
In addition, it can be difficult to know
whether the peace that is being built is resilient to shocks and, therefore, whether it is
sustainable.
It is in response to these issues that this research, in considering how WFP as a
dual-mandated humanitarian and development organization works in conflict-
affected environments, has focused on WFP’s
contributions to improving the prospects
for peace.
This entails compiling evidence on how work by WFP may have reduced the
likelihood of violence or increased the prospects for positive peace. Understanding
whether the prospects for a desired outcome have been increased necessarily entails
a considerable degree of judgement, and we come to how such judgement can be made
in the course of this report. At this point, it may be worthwhile to offer a reminder
to the reader that there could be instances when WFP contributes to the prospects
for peace, yet violence occurs, or when peace is realized without a contribution from
WFP.
Enshrined in the humanitarian principles in UN General Assembly resolutions 46/182 of 19 Dec. 1991 and
58/114 of 17 Dec. 2003, and the first principle of the OECD Development Assistance Committee’s principles for good
engagement in fragile states, see Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD),
Principles for
Good International Engagement in Fragile States and Situations
(OECD: Paris, 2007).
18
OECD,
Evaluating Peacebuilding Activities in Settings of Conflict and Fragility: Improving Learning for Results
(OECD: Paris, 2012).
17
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
2. The World Food Programme’s contribution to
improving the prospects for peace
This chapter reviews the areas that appear to be the most promising for WFP’s contri-
bution to improving the prospects for peace. For this review, this study employs the
concept of theories of change (TOCs) as a tool to facilitate analysis and support future
programme design.
Theories of change
As discussed above, peacebuilding is a complex undertaking, where the causal pathway
is emergent or adaptive, and many interventions are based on experimental designs.
As a result, its programming is often built on numerous assumptions about how inter-
ventions contribute to peace. Furthermore, such assumptions are often unstated and
embedded in the approaches of individual practitioners or organizations and their
inter ventions. This complicates evaluation of peacebuilding activities and building an
evidence base. The use of TOCs has been developed within the field of peacebuilding
to address this problem.
A TOC spells out an understanding of how a specific activity will result in the
achievement of desired changes in a particular context.
19
In its simplest form, a TOC
can be stated as
If we do X (action), the effect will be Y (result).
The core of this is a simple
cause-and-effect statement, although the if-then formulation is not always used. As
utilized in the peacebuilding field, a TOC is not a theory in the same way as the term
is used in social science. It is something much crisper and more straightforward than
most social science theories. It provides a testable hypothesis that makes explicit the
assumptions that underpin the planned activities, setting out the expectation of what
they will achieve. The TOC contributes directly to the evaluation of activities. If the
expected results are achieved, the TOC offers a causal pathway that can be explored,
assessed for validity and potentially replicated with appropriate modifications in
another context. If the results are not achieved, the TOC enables an assessment of
whether this was due to implementation failure or design failure, and helps to identify
additional necessary activities or actors that should be engaged.
20
While TOCs can be helpful in articulating and testing complex peacebuilding inter-
ventions, it needs to be acknowledged that it can be hard to collect data for their valid-
ation, especially in conflict-affected contexts. In addition, since evaluation based on
a TOC focuses on how the process of change occurs, it needs to be complemented by
other forms of measurement of outcomes in order to fully understand the results. It
is also a potential weakness of TOCs that they can inadvertently encourage an overly
linear approach by oversimplifying the contribution an initiative will make and miss-
ing some or all of the co-factors and other actions that are also essential. These limi-
tations mean that TOCs must be linked to a robust conflict analysis to ensure that
programming is sensitive and tailored to context. Despite their limitations, the use
of TOCs is now acknowledged good practice in peacebuilding and for organizations
working in conflict-affected environments.
The research team did not find TOCs in most WFP programme planning documents,
reports and evaluations. This is not surprising. In some of WFP’s usual programming
19
OECD (note 18).
P. and Oatley, N., ‘Practical approaches to theories of change in conflict, security and justice
programmes’, Part I, ‘What they are, different types, how to develop and use them’,
Practice Products for the Conflict,
Crime, and Violence Results Initiative (CCVRI)
(UK Department for International Development and CDA Collaborative
Learning Projects: London, 2013).
20
Woodrow,
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
2118147_0016.png
8
wfp’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace
Box 2.1.
Five meta-theories of change
Supported by the evidence:
Livelihoods investments
If
livelihoods are enhanced and/or diversified,
then
this will contribute to improving economic
opportunities and prospects for the future.
State–citizen link
If
government service delivery is inclusive and/or enhanced,
then
this will help strengthen state–citizen
links and contribute to stability and the prospects for peace.
Enhancing access to and supply of contested natural resources
If
the supply of natural resources is enhanced and/or the equitable use of natural resources is guaranteed,
then
this will create resilience to shocks that, without resilience, might leave communities vulnerable to
violence.
Community-based participatory approach
If
all sections of the community participate in the planning, implementation and monitoring processes of
community programming,
then
this will help to (re)build trust and social capital among communities.
Potential (not enough evidence to back it up):
General food distribution and stabilization
If
general food assistance is provided to people affected by crises to respond quickly to their urgent food
needs,
then
this will contribute to restoring stability and re-establishing a sense of normalcy among
affected populations.
areas, such as nutrition, there is a strong body of evidence that shows the impact of
programmatic intervention. A specific TOC for a specific nutrition programme would
be of marginal utility. The field of peacebuilding, by contrast, is relatively new and
there is a limited (albeit growing) body of evidence about what does and does not work.
It will make sense for WFP to draw on acknowledged good practice in that field. This
will make possible, among other gains, a basic unit of comparison across programmes
and contexts, with a view to the aggregation and synthesis of findings from different
country contexts.
Although explicit TOCs were largely lacking, a number of WFP programme staff
with whom the research team met had a relatively clear sense of why an activity
contributed to improving the prospects for peace or might be expected to do so.
Because the purpose of this research is not just to find out what WFP has done but to
understand how it might in future enhance its contribution to improving the prospects
for peace, it was appropriate and advantageous to use the TOC approach as a way
to understand both current activities and their possible enhancement. Accordingly,
drawing on a limited amount of documentation, and more broadly on interviews about
project aims and results, the research team imputed TOCs to WFP programming
activities. In essence, the effect is to propose that had there been TOCs, this is what
they would have looked like. Overall, 24 imputed TOCs were identified in the four
case study countries (see annex A).
Meta-theories of change derived from this study
Drawing on the 24 imputed TOCs, there are five broad or meta-TOCs that cluster in
patterns in WFP activities and outcomes together (see box 2.1). These are employed
fairly consistently, albeit differently in different contexts, across programming in the
four country case studies. For four of the five TOCs, there is adequate evidence to back
them up. The fifth is treated as a potential theory of change, in the sense that there is
not enough evidence to back it up. That is not to say that it should be regarded as dis-
proven, only that further inquiry is needed.
The specific outcomes and TOCs in each country case study are different because
of the diversity of contexts in which they apply. In some cases, multiple activities that
could each be seen as being supported by a different TOC combined to produce broader
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
wfp’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace
9
outcomes. Especially in complex settings, a holistic approach along these lines may be
required, which systematically takes different interrelated factors into account. The
next four sub-sections explore each meta-theory of change and their differences, with
examples.
Livelihoods investments
If
livelihoods are enhanced and/or diversified,
then
this will contribute to improving economic
opportunities and prospects for the future
Livelihoods are generally defined as the activities undertaken to translate resources—
whether natural or human—into means for living for groups or individuals, including
the production of goods and services. In fragile and conflict-affected situations,
supporting livelihoods through development assistance is widely used to build the cap-
acities of individuals and communities to enhance their resilience to shocks, engage
in sustainable livelihood strategies and contribute to long-term development.
21
Thus,
livelihood outcomes are more than jobs and income generation and include increased
well-being, reduced vulnerability and a more sustainable use of resources.
22
WFP implements a wide range of programming to improve the socio-economic
opportunities of vulnerable people who have limited income opportunities and
to provide additional pathways to break the intergenerational cycle of poverty and
hunger.
23
Among the four case studies, a promising example of a livelihoods intervention
contributing to improved prospects for peace was the Gastromotiva project in El
Salvador (see box 2.2). The critical success factors for this project were strong plan-
ning, intensive follow-up and private sector involvement, with a specific emphasis
on overcoming stigma. Bridging between the private sector and beneficiaries was
intended to reduce the vulnerability to individual recruitment into gangs by providing
other livelihood options. It should be noted that this is a highly labour intensive and
small-scale intervention, requiring minimum critical investment per beneficiary at a
higher level of maintenance than is typical for a WFP programme.
State–citizen links
If
government service delivery is inclusive and/or enhanced,
then
this will help strengthen state–citizen
links and contribute to stability and the prospects for peace.
In all four country case studies, WFP is supporting the state with service delivery, in
particular in the provision of social safety nets and in strengthening broader national
social protection systems. The possible contributions of these activities to improving
the prospects for peace take two forms: strengthening the legitimacy of the govern-
ment because its performance on service delivery improves; and enhancing the
inclusivity of government-led social safety nets.
It is a widely held assumption that improving service delivery to make it more
effective and equitable can improve the quality of contact between government and
citizens, enhance a government’s accountability and improve its legitimacy.
24
WFP’s
work in this area in the four case study countries involves supporting performance
J. and Calderone, M., ‘Building livelihood and community resilience’, ODI-Cesvi Working Paper 545
(ODI: London, 2019).
22
UK Department for International Development (DFID), ‘Sustainable livelihoods guidance sheets’, DFID,
London, 1999.
23
These interventions include resilience-building programming through Food Assistance for Assets (FFA), Food
Assistance for Training (FFT), income generating activities (IGA) and Smallholder Agriculture Market Support
(SAMS), as well as climate services and rural insurance, or connecting school meals programmes to the local
production, such as through locally grown school meals.
24
UN PBSO (note 13).
21
Twigg,
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
2118147_0018.png
10
wfp’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace
Box 2.2.
Enhancing socio-economic status and empowerment: The Gastromotiva project
in El Salvador
Theory of change:
If
urban youth at risk of stigma, violence and displacement have opportunities for socio-
economic inclusion and access to safe spaces,
then
they connect and develop, become agents of change in their
communities and support themselves and their families without becoming caught up in conflict dynamics.
Gastromotiva is aligned with the government’s response to assist migrant returnees and break the vicious
circle between food insecurity, violence and migration. It aims to promote productive livelihood incentives
for vulnerable youth, victims of gang violence and deported migrants. Participants acquire skills in
professional cooking, gain hands-on practice in restaurants and an education at a university, with the aim
of gaining formal employment. The World Food Programme (WFP) intends to scale up the programme by
increasing the number of participants and private sector partners in 2019.
This project could contribute to improving the prospects for peace in El Salvador in a range of ways:
•
Enhancing status within a community.
Vocational training has the potential to improve social
standing and status, as enhanced skills and knowledge contribute to enhanced community
recognition. Status can be particularly important in societies where strong hierarchies exist.
Through the Gastromotiva project, WFP sensitized at-risk youth and returnees to the importance
of overcoming stigma and provided them with vocational training. WFP sensitised private sector
partners, created a private sector network and a bridge between employers and trainees, resulting
in reintegration of the most marginalized sectors of society into the wider social and economic
sphere.
Empowerment.
Enhanced opportunities and livelihood options can lead to strengthened self-
confidence and autonomy, providing hope for the future. The youth engaged in the project shared
their renewed sense of hope for alternatives to violence, thereby becoming agents of change to help
build a culture of peace.
Preventing recruitment.
Livelihoods programming may have some potential to help stem the
recruitment of individuals into militia or other armed groups, or into gangs. The employment
opportunities provided through the Gastromotiva project may have a stronger influence on forced
returnees from the United States and Mexico who are at high risk of joining gangs if they do not
find livelihoods alternatives.
•
•
with data, analysis and evidence; providing technical assistance to enhance the
quality of specific government-led social safety net programmes; and offering tech-
nical advice to strengthen legislation related to social safety nets. WFP’s portfolio of
capacity strengthening initiatives typically provides support across the breadth of
government, covering ministries such as agriculture, education, environment, health
and social protection; provincial authorities; and the national food security and stat-
istical institutes.
Where exclusion from services provided by the government coincides with a sense
of injustice and divisions within the community, such as ethnic or tribal divisions,
even the perception of being excluded can feed grievances against the state. In most of
the country case studies, WFP advocates and provides technical assistance to enhance
the inclusivity of social safety nets.
In Kyrgyzstan, by working with the government in a government-led social safety
net initiative, WFP has the potential to help strengthen the government’s performance
legitimacy on education (see box 2.3). The high level of interest in providing and
willing ness at all levels of government to provide school meals and active community
participation means that WFP’s Optimising School Meals Programme can help
improve the quality of school meals and build more grassroots trust in the local and
central government. WFP is also piloting methods to include schools that do not reach
the minimum criteria for inclusion in this free school meals programme. However, its
contribution to improving the prospects for peace is as yet constrained by limited state
visibility and the lack of feedback mechanisms and relevant data.
Enhancing access to and supply of contested natural resources
If
the supply of natural resources is enhanced and/or the equitable use of natural resources is guaranteed,
then
this will create resilience to shocks that, without resilience, might leave communities vulnerable to
violence.
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
2118147_0019.png
wfp’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace
11
Box 2.3.
The Optimising School Meals Programme and government capacity building in
Kyrgyzstan
Theory of change:
If
the Government develops responsive, inclusive and accountable institutions at the national
and subnational levels and enhances service delivery,
then
citizens will increasingly trust the state.
In 2013, the World Food Programme (WFP) launched the Optimising School Meals Programme (OSMP)
to improve the national school meals programme (SMP) for children aged 6–9 years old. The programme
upgraded the standard daily ‘tea and bun’ provision for school children to a nutritious hot meal, through
technical support to the schools, policy support to the government, and strengthening the capacity of the
involved staff. To date, WFP has introduced improved school meals in approximately 500 primary schools
and 500 additional schools will receive financial and technical support from WFP to improve their meals.
The government aims to cover all of the 2200 schools across the country with improved meals in the next
five years.
WFP works with the Government of Kyrgyzstan, which provides part of the financing; local authorities,
which pays for the relevant infrastructure and renovations required for schools to shift to hot meals;
and communities, including village committees as well as parent and teacher associations (PTAs). PTAs,
in particular, function as project management committees through daily monitoring and follow-up,
involvement in the management of the meals (such as collection of funds and purchase of additional
products), daily oversight of the quality of the food, and support to the day-to-day running of the SMP.
WFP provides technical assistance with the reconstruction and re-equipment of school kitchens and
canteens and water/sanitation infrastructure; the introduction of new nutritious menus; training managers
and cooks; and promoting and supporting school farms and gardens. At the policy level, WFP provides
assistance to the Government to revise and develop national policy and legislation related to school
nutrition for the sustainability and effective management of the school meals programme.
The national and safety regulations prescribe strict standards and requirements for school canteen
infrastructure and basic facilities related to the preparation of fresh food at school. This means that those
schools which do not meet the standards, mostly located in rural areas or impoverished communities, might
not be eligible for the programme. It is estimated that 25 per cent of schools do not meet the standards. To
address this challenge, WFP is currently engaging with new partners and raising complementary funds
for infrastructure rehabilitation. At the time being, 190 schools which do not meet the minimum criteria
have been receiving assistance to enable these institutions to join fully the programme. This effort to
ensure a more inclusive approach is resource-intensive and requires involvement of both local and national
government stakeholders. The process is still at the onset and the result not fully documented yet. It is
expected that the programme, as a longer-term impact, will improve the prospects for sustaining peace,
building inclusiveness and stronger trust within communities.
Currently, corporately WFP has limited indicator set to collect data that could document enhanced
performance, legitimacy or accountability in the communities. Although some external data sets contain
indicators for measuring perceptions of public service delivery and trust in government. Corporate and
targeted WFP toolsets are instrumental to document results and trigger effective and informed actions
within peace building and community trust.
Control over and access to natural resources, in particular land and water, are common
drivers of conflict in resource-dependent communities. Demographic change, environ-
mental degradation, market pressure and climate change are all pressures on scarce
and diminishing natural resources. These pressures can push people to exceed the
sustainable limits of natural resources, which become subject to intense competition.
Resilience programming that directly addresses natural resource constraints has the
potential to diminish the conflict and tensions induced by resource scarcity. To achieve
this, WFP typically utilizes Food Assistance for Assets (FFA) programmes. These are
one of WFP’s key tools for providing food assistance to the most vulnerable and for
strengthening their food security, livelihoods and resilience to shocks and stresses.
25
FFA programming is implemented in all four case study countries to reduce natural
resource stresses. It has, for example, contributed to the rehabilitation of irrigation
canals which cross back and forth between disputed territories that are claimed by both
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The programme has reduced water loss and contributed to
increased agricultural productivity with the result that inter-community conflict over
water has been prevented (see box 2.4).
25
WFP, ‘Food Assistance for Assets: Regional overviews’, Rome, 2018.
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
2118147_0020.png
12
wfp’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace
Box 2.4.
Reducing water loss in disputed territories between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
Theory of change:
If
natural resource infrastructure is improved to enhance efficiency and allow separate
access by different ethnic groups,
then
there will be a reduction in tensions over natural resource management.
Water stress is widely regarded as a major driver of conflict in Batken province, Kyrgyzstan, and among the
communities in the disputed territories between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. A lack of border demarcation
means that there are no functioning governance structures to deal with natural resource management.
The water infrastructure has deteriorated, resulting in significant water losses, which means that in
drier periods there is not enough water for all water users. This contributes to tensions both between
communities on either side of the border, and among communities on the same side of the border, which
sometimes erupt into acts of violence.
Working in conjunction with other agencies through a Peacebuilding Fund project, the World Food
Programme (WFP) implemented Food Assistance for Assets programming to rehabilitate irrigation
canals and water pipelines in cross-border villages in the region, with priorities identified and agreed by
communities on both sides of the disputed border. For example, in Karabak Ayil Okmoto, Tajik and Kyrgyz
communities live in immediate proximity, and the existing irrigation canal is implicitly understood by local
communities as the de facto border. The canal itself is seen by both communities as belonging to the Kyrgyz
side but with no alternative sources of water, Tajik farmers had illegally drilled holes into the canal to draw
water, reducing the overall water flow by approximately 50 per cent.
Through the programme, a new irrigation canal was built to serve the Kyrgyz side, and wells were
constructed to serve the Tajik side. The programme has documented evidence of enhanced access to
irrigation water, reduced tensions between communities over water access and enhanced relations between
communities.
Given the tacit understandings on ownership of the canals, the programme is carefully navigating choices
over which pieces of infrastructure to rehabilitate and who can work on them. Since control over water
is such a contentious issue, the project needs to continually assess whether rehabilitation efforts might
enhance actual control of water by one community, or whether it might give an implicit message of
increasing assertion of control over water.
However, WFP’s approach is often limited to enhancing access to, or the supply of,
natural resources. Other elements of natural resource management are not normally
the focus of WFP interventions, including in the four case studies. To maximize
contributions to improving the prospects for peace, such programmes should create a
clear system of ownership of the natural resources in question, as well as mechanisms
for resolving disputes over resource use and promoting equity in benefits.
26
WFP’s
performance is uneven in this regard.
The most promising practice was found in El Salvador, where WFP is brokering
agreements between communities or groups of beneficiaries that do not have access
to productive land, and landowners. In order to support this intervention, WFP is
also bringing in legal support. The contracts agreed allow communities to use the
improved land and assets even after project completion (see box 2.5).
In Mali, WFP’s cooperation partners brokered agreements within communities to
determine land use rights in an effort to prevent conflict over improved land, but these
did not address critical underlying structural inequalities regarding land ownership
and use.
In the cases we observed, WFP support following the completion of newly con-
structed or rehabilitated infrastructure typically drops off so there is no onward
support to help communities take advantage of the enhanced assets. The question of
the sustainability of enhanced assets, and whether this has any bearing on the pros-
pects for peace, requires further examination.
Community-based participatory approach
If
all sections of the community participate in the planning, implementation and monitoring processes
of community programming,
then
this will help to (re)build trust and social capital among communities.
26
USAID,
Water and Conflict: A Toolkit for Programming
(USAID: Washington, DC, 2014).
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
2118147_0021.png
wfp’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace
13
Box 2.5.
Brokering agreements for land usage rights in El Salvador
Theory of change:
If
rural communities vulnerable to climate change and violence have access to: (a) community
participation avenues; (
b)
diversified income sources; (c) increased knowledge; and (d) improved management
of natural resources,
then
there will be increased social cohesion and greater resilience to contextual conflict
dynamics.
The resilience programme targets rural smallholders who identify and build key assets to diversify and
improve their livelihoods and build resilience to shocks.
The study looked at three specific interventions: the building of macro-tunnels, greenhouses and forestry
projects. For households to be able to participate in these two projects, they must have access to land
and water. A major challenge, however, is the limited access to land, as only 20 per cent of participating
households owned land. As a way of overcoming this limitation, local landholders have lent land for free
to beneficiaries. Although participants benefit from improved and diversified livelihoods for the duration
of the project, such arrangements increase the risk of elite capture of assets. The landowner also benefits
from the improved soil and water management resulting from participants’ work on the land. Where rent
is paid, participants are also vulnerable throughout the project to rent increases or even the landowner
terminating the agreement.
To reduce these risks, the World Food Programme contracts lawyers to legally formalize rental agreements.
A Shared Benefit Compromise Letter is signed by the landowners and landless participants to ensure that
the benefits of asset creation activities are shared for at least 3–5 years beyond programme closure.
WFP has used community-based participatory processes extensively to inform the
planning and implementation of food assistance programmes. This approach engages
a representative group drawn from all sections of communities in all aspects of
programming. It works on the assumption that communities are better placed than
anybody else to identify their needs and the actions required to meet them. This way
of working has been widely used by international development agencies as a principal
component of community-driven development (CDD) or reconstruction (CDR) in
conflict-affected contexts. Over the past three decades, CDD programmes have gained
profile as a vehicle for strengthening governance at the grassroots level. There is no
clear difference between the strategies or methodologies devised in conflict-affected
or non-conflict settings. In conflict-affected contexts, however, countries face an even
stronger imperative to rebuild socio-economic infrastructure and social capital torn
apart by violent conflict. Thus, the rapid transfer of resources in the form of a peace
dividend can help fill service gaps and mitigate the risk of conflict, especially if the
focus is on opportunities for collective benefit from collaborative action.
27
Even more
importantly, participatory processes of product delivery with strengthened mech-
anisms for redressing grievances can influence attitudes, behaviours and norms in a
way that rebuilds social accountability.
28
Community-based participatory planning (CBPP) is widely used by WFP to inform
resilience programming.
29
WFP evaluation results suggest that CBPP has contributed
to building trust and social cohesion in communities by involving different actors
in programming processes.
30
Broader impacts on gender dynamics have also been
observed, such as improvements in the position of women in the community and
households, and increased social connectivity.
31
A number of evaluations of community-driven development highlight that some
targeted local institutions were discriminatory, exclusionary and unrepresentative of
S. et al.,
Community-driven Reconstruction as an Instrument in War-to-Peace Transitions,
CPR Working
Paper no. 7 (World Bank: Washington, DC, 2013).
28
Bennett, S. and D’Onofrio, A., ‘Community driven development in conflict affected contexts: revisiting concepts,
functions and fundamentals’,
Stability: International Journal of Security and Development,
vol. 4, no. 1 (2015), pp.
1–18; and de Regt, J., et al. 2013.
Designing Community-driven Development Operations in Fragile and Conflict-affected
Situations: Lessons from a Stocktaking
(World Bank: Washington, DC, 2013).
29
For further information on WFP’s 3PA, see WFP, ‘The Three-pronged approach (3PA) Factsheet’, 2 May 2017.
30
WFP,
Synthesis Report of the Evaluation Series on the Impact of Food for Assets (2002–2011) and Lessons for
Building Livelihoods Resilience: Impact Evaluation Synthesis
(WFP: Rome, 2014).
31
WFP,
The Potential of Food Assistance for Assets (FFA) to Empower Women and Improve Women’s Nutrition: A
Five Country Study
(WFP: Rome, 2017).
27
Cliffe,
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
2118147_0022.png
14
wfp’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace
Box 2.6.
Peers for peace: Building social cohesion in the Mopti and Ségou regions of Mali
Theory of change:
If
communities strengthen livelihoods through an inclusive participatory process,
then
the community will work together which will signal a positive change in circumstances, reduce the sense of
marginalization and provide purpose and meaningful employment for youth.
This pilot Peacebuilding Fund project is jointly implemented by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO),
the World Food Programme (WFP) and the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), with WFP as the
lead agency. The project targets 500 households (‘peers for peace’) and involves strengthening community-
based conflict mediation mechanisms and enhancing livelihoods and community infrastructures.
All the activities are based on Participatory Community Planning Processes. To enhance livelihoods, a
communal vegetable garden was created. The land used for the garden was chosen by the entire community
and an agreement was signed where the land initially belonged to an individual or family. In order to have
a fully functional water management system, a rotating management committee was formed (in some
communities, expensive solar materials can expose the population to theft). A community youth group was
trained in equipment maintenance and repair, and the community was encouraged to create a management
fund to pay for a night watchman and mechanics.
Significant changes in the commune of Diankabou, in the Mopti region covered by the project, have been
observed by cooperation partners. In particular, there has been a decrease in the severity and extent of
inter-community violence. It is difficult to ascertain the exact reasons for the reduction in violence; the
installation of army bases in the intervention areas could have played an important part. Nevertheless,
prior to the intervention, there had been numerous cases of inter-communal violence between Fulani
pastoralists and Dogon farmers, involving mutual killings and the burning of villages. Subsequently, Dogon
community members could not access fields near the Fulani village. In the initial planning phase, the
community members were too afraid to enter each other’s village. However, tensions have significantly
reduced since the beginning of the project. Furthermore, there has been an increase in economic
interdependence between villages—Fulani allow Dogon to bring their animals to the Fulani village to drink
from the pastoral well that was built through the project, while the Dogon now sell vegetables, which were
grown in the market gardens supported by the project, to the Fulani. In addition, village credit and savings
groups provide a sense of empowerment through access to small credits while allowing members to build
chains of solidarity and dialogue. Finally, there has been an overall increase in the movement of people
across villages.
communities.
32
These were examples of how efforts to promote inclusive participation
can unintentionally lead to exclusion. WFP’s CBPP seeks full representation but
to achieve this, an understanding of local power dynamics is required to avoid the
exclusion of marginal groups. Here, the research team identified cases (discussed
further in section 3.2) where particular groups were not adequately included due to
the local power structures, cultural norms or displacement.
In all four case study countries, there was anecdotal evidence of CBPP contributing
to enhanced trust and stronger social capital. In the Kyrgyzstan school meals
programme, for example, parental support was found to have a positive impact on
relationships between parents, and between parents and the school (see box 2.3).
33
However, without any mapping of ethnicity or details on whether schools serve
divided communities, it is impossible to discern whether participation in a school
committee has any bearing on relationships across divides or in areas where social
capital is weak. In a social cohesion project in Mali, by contrast, observable changes in
the conflict context are clear, such as decreased violence and increased interactions
among divided communities (see box 2.6). WFP collects data to determine whether the
management committee of a specific asset exists, how it is composed and its function-
ality. However, it does not consider such questions as the quality of the process or who
32
See e.g. Strand, A. et al., ‘Community Driven Development in Contexts of Conflict’,
Concept Paper Commissioned
by ESSD, World Bank
(Chr. Michelsen Institute: Bergen, 2003); World Bank,
The Effectiveness of World Bank Support
for Community Based and Driven Development: An OED Evaluation
(World Bank: Washington, DC, 2005); Haider,
H.,
Community-based Approaches to Peacebuilding in Conflict-affected and Fragile Contexts,
GSDRC Issues Paper
(University of Birmingham: Birmingham, 2009); and Wong, S.,
What have been the Impacts of World Bank Community-
Driven Development Programs?
CDD impact evaluation review and operational and research implications (World
Bank: Washington, DC, 2012).
33
WFP, ‘Report on the results of the overview assessment for the project “Optimization of the National School
Meals Program’”,
Kyrgyz Republic: A Component for the Development of Complementary School Facilities,
DEV Project
200176 (WFP in the Kyrgyz Republic: Bishkek, 2017).
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
wfp’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace
15
is included in decision making. This does not provide full insight on possible peace
effects or possible conflict sensitivity concerns.
General food assistance and stabilization
If
general food assistance is provided to people affected by crises to respond quickly to their urgent food
needs,
then
this will contribute to restoring stability and re-establishing a sense of normalcy among
affected populations.
General food assistance is the largest component of the WFP portfolio and is
particularly vital to individuals displaced by violence. A number of TOCs about the
contribution of general food assistance to improving the prospects for peace were
identified in Mali and Iraq. However, the evidence base for these remains unformed. A
number of cooperating partners that have been delivering WFP’s general food assist-
ance in northern Mali reported that general food and cash transfers have a stabilizing
effect, but there were no metrics of stabilization.
A potential sub-category of this TOC is that providing food assistance at times of
severe food insecurity could encourage people to remain in their place of origin. This
would avoid them becoming internally displaced persons (IDPs) and moving to an area
where, as often happens, there are tensions with the host population. Where other
sur vival strategies have been exhausted and there is a lack of access to food, it would
seem logical that the availability of food assistance could be an inducement to people
to remain in their home areas throughout a period of severe stress. Furthermore,
although the initial driver of migration differs across contexts, onward movement is
driven by a common desire for stability, and livelihoods and food security are key pull
factors.
34
However, while the National Food and Nutritional Security Survey (ENSAN)
collects data on the movement of people, including their reasons for moving, it does
not offer evidence that food assistance contributes to preventing human mobility in
Mali.
Nor was there evidence to support another potential sub-category of this TOC that
addresses potential tensions between IDPs and host populations. These tensions are
often caused by the perception among the host community that the IDPs are being
better treated than they are. Food aid targeted to IDPs alone, like other forms of assist-
ance, therefore gives rise to significant risks. In Mali, WFP provides emergency food
assistance to both IDPs and host populations during the so-called lean season. The
most vulnerable IDPs and host community households are eligible for continued assist-
ance outside the lean season. Again, logic suggests that this could well be a conflict
mitigation method, but there are no metrics for measuring the effects. WFP in Mali
recently launched a mobile vulnerability analysis mapping (mVAM) survey to assess
targeting among general food assistance beneficiaries—although not specifically
IDPs—and this could be utilized as a tool to collect relevant data.
Nonetheless, a number of other studies have found evidence that the regular pro-
vision of food assistance could contribute to re-establishing a sense of normalcy
among people affected by displacement and violence.
35
Since general food assistance
is designed to be of short duration (even though it frequently continues for a decade or
more), its impact is likely to be limited; accompanied by additional livelihoods invest-
ments, however, it could create a buffer through which people affected by conflict can
begin to rebuild their lives and livelihoods. Although clear evidence is lacking, there
is enough of a basis here to conclude that further exploration of the impact of general
food assistance on the prospects for peace would be worthwhile.
34
WFP,
At the Root of Exodus: Food Security, Conflict and International Migration
(WFP: Rome, 2017).
35
Frankenberger (note 9).
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
3. Cross-cutting findings
This chapter discusses issues that emerged from the four country case studies that
have a wider relevance beyond these four countries, and sketches out the areas to
be addressed in setting out to enhance WFP’s overall contribution to improving the
prospects for peace.
Conflict sensitivity
It is well known that the introduction of aid resources into conflict and peacebuilding
environments can influence patterns of violence and expose intended recipients to
new risks.
36
In effect, when international assistance is provided in conflict-affected
states, it becomes part of the context and thus also of the conflict. It can at worst
become part of the reason why violent conflict is prolonged or diffused. Although
WFP as a humanitarian actor seeks to be neutral and nonpartisan, the impact of its
inter ventions may not be.
As a way to think about this, the principle of ‘do no harm’ has received wide
acknowledgement and support among international humanitarian, development and
peacebuilding actors over the past two decades.
37
To this end, to avoid exacerbating
conflict, the concept of conflict sensitivity encourages organizations to understand
both the context in which they work and how their activities interact with it.
38
Beyond
doing no harm, organizations aspire, of course, to do some good and may have high
ambitions, but the minimum acceptable standard is the avoidance of harm. In complex
and often fast-moving conflict contexts, this may be the minimum but that does not
make it simple. Given the highly complex and contextual nature of armed conflict
and peacebuilding environments, conflict sensitivity concerns are different among
the countries where WFP operates and, to add further complexities, even within
them; different areas of the same countries can present quite different operational
environments.
Eight broad conflict sensitivity concerns were identified across the four country
case studies. These relate to conflict dynamics and the operational environment, on
the one hand, and WFP’s processes and activities, on the other. The research team
found that WFP has a number of mitigation measures in place to meet these concerns
but they were not comprehensively applied. The most important conflict sensitivity
concern is targeting, which is discussed separately below.
The response to all of the concerns raised below is to increase conflict sensitivity in
programming, which means putting increased emphasis on analysis in the planning
stages and throughout the life of a programme. Too often, international actors are
not fully informed about what is happening in the areas where they operate and it is
often an extremely demanding task to develop an adequately broad, deep and sensitive
analysis and keep it up to date. This is one of the key challenges for humanitarianism,
development assistance and peacebuilding alike.
Violent extremism
WFP operates in numerous settings where violent extremism is commonplace.
There is mixed evidence around the connection between food insecurity and violent
R. M. and Sullivan, C., ‘Doing harm by doing good? The negative externalities of humanitarian aid
provision during civil conflict’,
Journal of Politics,
vol. 77, no. 3 (2015), pp. 736–48.
37
Anderson, M. B.,
Do No Harm: How Aid Can Support Peace—or War
(Lynne Rienner Publishers: Boulder, CO,
1999).
38
See the definition provided by the Conflict Sensitivity Community Hub, <http://conflictsensitivity.org/
conflict-sensitivity/what-is-conflict-sensitivity/>.
36
Wood,
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
cross-cutting findings
17
extremism.
39
However, it is clear that WFP’s interventions could have an impact on
some of the drivers of recruitment into extremist groups. In particular, WFP’s work on
social safety nets, community cohesion and resilience interacts with important social
factors that drive recruitment, such as social exclusion, marginalization and dis-
crimination (real or perceived), limited social mobility, limited education or employ-
ment opportunities, displacement and criminality.
Operating with a dual humanitarian and development mandate
WFP’s dual humanitarian and development mandate poses dilemmas in certain
conflict-affected or fragile contexts. Wherever possible, WFP engages in development
programming in support of host governments to sustainably reach zero hunger. In
conflict-affected environments, the humanitarian principle of neutrality plays a
significant role in ensuring that armed actors and affected populations accept WFP’s
presence and programming. This requires neutrality and operational independence
from the host government. The distinction is more complicated in practice. In some
conflict-affected countries, WFP continues to work with the host government,
including on development projects, while in conflict-affected areas WFP operates
under humanitarian principles. This duality means that gaining acceptance for safe
and effective programming is a particular challenge.
Corruption
Corruption is a pervasive problem that occurs at both the central and the provincial
levels of government and is often a driver of conflict. In two country case studies,
important concerns arose around the intention of government to provide and/or
improve services to sections of the population, as well as concerns over corruption
and state budgets.
Diversion
Theft of aid resources by a warring party is similarly a major challenge that faces all
development and humanitarian actors in a wide range of conflict contexts. In one
country case study there had been incidents of food being looted by armed groups, but
this was not widespread.
Resource capture
Through programmes such as FFA and Food Assistance for Training (FFT), WFP
provides resources in the form of cash, vouchers and food transfers, as well as
investments in infrastructure to build social and human capital. These resources
are at times captured by local elites or other non-intended beneficiaries, which can
reinforce societal inequalities. Resource capture is tied to local power dynamics
and traditional practices, and is different from the issue of diversion. Contesting
the traditional practices that underpin resource capture, however, raises new risks
around challenging social stability. In a wider conflict context, such interventions
could significantly destabilize communities
Participatory planning
CBPP seeks to involve representatives of all the different stakeholders in communities
and local governance in identifying issues and solutions. Participatory planning is a
good principle, but conflict sensitivity concerns arose in some case study countries
around incomplete representation. Defining who is ‘the community’ can exclude
39
See e.g. Hendrix and Brinkman (note 10); and Raleigh, C., Choi, H. J. and Kniveton, D., ‘The devil is in the details:
An investigation of the relationships between conflict, food price and climate across Africa’,
Global Environmental
Change
, vol. 32 (Apr. 2015), pp. 187–99.
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
18
wfp’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace
certain members—such as IDPs or nomadic groups—or those in nearby communities
who may be affected by an intervention.
Onward linkages
WFP provides training to food insecure beneficiaries in combination with food or cash
transfers to build knowledge or skills that can generate income. However, if onward
linkages to employment opportunities are weak, interventions run the risk of creating
frustration among trainees.
Targeting
The targeting process, which determines who does and does not receive resources, is
the most common conflict sensitivity flashpoint across all international aid. Even when
aid is targeted to the most vulnerable, this can be perceived as bias. Vulnerability often
coincides with lines of division among and between communities. The case studies
highlighted a number of concerns.
Inclusion/exclusion errors in targeting
Where lists of beneficiaries are generated through government lists, such as working
through government social safety net programmes, or where government has a strong
role in determining the location of interventions, such as schools to be supported
or irrigation canals to be improved, there is a risk that programming can reinforce
any existing bias in these lists. In some situations, particularly where WFP cannot
access communities due to security concerns, targeting can become caught up in
wider conflicts, where certain groups or powerful individuals in the community
seek to influence or even control beneficiary lists. This is a potential mechanism for
reinforcing their power over a community and gaining legitimacy in the eyes of the
government and international organizations.
Visibility of beneficiaries
Where WFP systems support victims of violence and require the provision of personal
data, this can result in individuals who wish to remain hidden becoming identifiable.
Even when personal data is anonymized, information about the location of beneficiaries
could fall into the wrong hands. This raises a protection risk. The right to privacy is
not only an important right in itself, but also a key element of individual autonomy and
dignity. Beneficiaries may want to remain hidden for various reasons, including fear of
persecution, marginalization or stigmatization, or as a matter of principle.
In other cases, when WFP is co-controller of personal data together with the govern-
ment or has data-sharing agreements with other agencies or governments (normally
to improve programme integration or support social registries and social protection
systems), there is a risk that data might be used for unintended purposes. Data stored
in social registries can easily be linked to other systems, including those unrelated
to social protection (e.g. law enforcement, commercial marketing, counterterrorism,
migration) and can therefore be used for non-humanitarian or non-development
purposes. While this specific risk was not observed or relevant in any of the four
country case studies, it has been highlighted in the overall discussions regarding
conflict-sensitivity and data protection, and it is an emerging area of concern as WFP’s
work to support government systems expands.
Finally, being a recipient of aid can expose beneficiaries to threats and extortion,
particularly in a context of gangs.
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
cross-cutting findings
19
Challenge to social norms
In some contexts, there are difficulties with the concept of targeting, as community
leaders collect distributed inputs (food or cash) from the targeted beneficiaries and
redistribute them across the entire community. While encountered in one country case
study, it is not clear how widespread this phenomenon is. Nonetheless, it affects all aid
providers, not just WFP, and appears to be largely accepted by local non-governmental
organizations (NGOs) on the basis that all community members consider themselves
vulnerable. There are conflict sensitivity risks that efforts to reach the most marginal-
ized could inadvertently result in reinforcing their marginalized status within the
community, with no power to control the assets targeted to them, and the potential to
increase grievances if a leader were to favour certain groups/individuals.
Holistic approach
The conflict sensitivity issues discussed above highlight some of the challenges
faced by organizations operating in armed conflict and peacebuilding environments.
Building a sustainable peace is a complex undertaking that entails influencing the
behaviour of social systems that have been affected by armed conflict. Chapter 1
contained reflections on the complexities of conflict, peace and the process of building
peace. These imply that work aimed at improving the prospects for peace must be
based on a nuanced understanding of the task in hand. All social systems are complex,
highly dynamic, non-linear and emergent—meaning that they have the ability to adapt
and self-organize.
40
Peacebuilding must seek to stimulate processes in a society that
enable self-organization and that will lead to strengthened resilience among the social
institutions that manage internal and external stressors and shocks. Engaging with
such complex challenges requires organizations to think and act in integrative ways
that cut across traditional boundaries and to see peacebuilding not just through the
lens of their own core competencies, but in a holistic way that considers the peace-
building needs of a situation at the systemic level.
41
It requires thinking about inter-
connectedness as events and social phenomena do not exist in a vacuum but are
connected to other events and social phenomena. Causality does not flow only in one
direction, but any causal event touches off a chain reaction that will eventually have
an impact on the initial causal event itself (feedback).
A holistic approach thus requires recognition of the many different types of actors,
their networks and relationships, operating in different sectors of society and in
different parts of the country, exercising their agency for peace or against it.
42
These
interactions often transcend the traditional political and thematic boundaries that
peacebuilding efforts tend to organize around. Examples of the complex challenges
that WFP encounters include the return of refugees and IDPs to communities that
may not want them back, negotiating with local governments on sustainable resource
or infrastructure management, or resolving larger systemic issues such as targeting
in the presence of ministries and donors that earmark and have their own political
objectives. Engaging with complex challenges like these brings to the forefront the
importance of partnerships.
40
De Coning, C., ‘Adaptive peacebuilding’,
International Affairs,
vol. 94, no. 2 (2018), pp. 301–17.
R., ‘Networks of effective action: Implementing an integrated approach to peacebuilding’,
Security
Dialogue,
vol. 34, no. 4 (2003), pp. 445–62.
42
MacGinty, R. and Richmond, O. P., ‘The local turn in peace building: A critical agenda for peace’,
Third World
Quarterly,
vol. 34, no. 5 (2013), pp. 763–83.
41
Ricigliano,
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
2 0
wfp’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace
Partnerships
The many complex challenges in conflict and peacebuilding environments call for an
increased role for partners and partnerships. We identified a tendency in WFP, familiar
in other international organizations, to think of partners purely in contractual terms
as participants in implementation. Partnerships with organizations in the countries
where WFP works could extend beyond this and some WFP teams are already entering
into more expansive forms of partnership. This can be important in at least four ways:
knowledge, wisdom, credibility and critical distance.
First, partners, by virtue of their diverse mandates and experience, have additional
technical knowledge that can be informative. Conflict-affected environments such as
those of the four countries visited are often characterized by incomplete information
systems. Partners may, for example, have contacts in the government that can help
navigate the bureaucracy so as to move a project forward. They may be able to identify
technical resources that might serve as the foundation for programme design and
planning.
Partners may also bring additional perspective to and understanding of the
operating environment. This can enhance understanding of the challenges and help
to identify workable solutions. Examples include the ability to convene multiple stake-
holders to broker agreements, an understanding of deeply rooted grievances that may
affect perceptions of targeting, and knowledge of which stakeholders in a complex
environment will be allies or obstacles to reform and progress.
The WFP acts in line with the principles of neutrality and independence but it
is hard to be completely objective in a complex political environment. Problems of
analytical bias may arise not because WFP or its staff take sides, but because of their
sense of mission, or because of assumptions about the conflict situation, especially
where information is incomplete. In these circumstances, triangulation through
consultation with partners can provide critical perspectives and help understand
the complex political context. Partners can thus serve as a sounding board to provide
feedback on analysis and programme design, and advise WFP when it may be lacking
conflict sensitivity or be blind to other stakeholders’ objectives.
All of this is predicated on partnerships being developed steadily and sustainably,
and on close relationships developing with a degree of strategic alignment and a great
deal of mutual trust. The aim should be to include local partners not only in implement-
ation, but also in analysis, planning and assessment. At the same time, when partner-
ships involve contractual relationships, it is important that the same demands for
conflict sensitivity are made of partners as of WFP. Attachment to common standards
is one condition for a successful partnership.
Climate change
The issue of climate change impacts arises in each of the four case study countries and
will arise with increasing intensity throughout WFP’s work in the years ahead. Cli-
mate change has been a significant cause of the increase in world hunger in the past
half-decade.
43
This impact can be expected to increase as the world moves towards
1.5°C of warming, which on current trends according to the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change will be reached some time between 2030 and 2050.
44
There is
43
FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (note 1).
44
Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
Global Warming of 1.5°C: Special Report
(IPCC: Geneva,
2018).
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
cross-cutting findings
21
considerable evidence available of the security-related risks of climate change, among
which are some that hinge on issues of food security such as price volatility.
45
Most of El Salvador is part of the Dry Corridor that also stretches through Guatemala
and Honduras. The region is experiencing one of the worst droughts of the past
ten years. This has had disastrous consequences for grain production, particularly
affecting small-scale farmers who have lost much of their maize harvest. The lack
of water was a recurrent topic in the interviews with communities. The drought is a
main driver of migration and perhaps also of the increased levels of violence. In Mali,
climate change, land degradation and demographic challenges have led to increased
competition for land and water. This contributes to increased levels of intercommunal
conflict between farmers and pastoralists, as it does elsewhere across the Sahel. In
central Mali, competition for land is central among the long-term causes of conflict, in
which the emergence of jihadi groups is a recent evolution.
In Iraq and Kyrgyzstan, WFP has begun to address climate change issues. In
Kyrgyzstan, where climate change has negatively affected the livelihoods and food
security of vulnerable people as well as water availability, the country office has
received funds to work with the Green Climate Fund (GCF). There are plans to
analyse cause-effect relations of climate change and food security. In Iraq, WFP is
working with the government on a GCF proposal. Climate change exacerbates the
all too evident existing risks to human security and has the potential to undermine
peacebuilding efforts.
46
In the southern provinces, climate change is producing
prolonged heatwaves and decreased rainfall. This puts pressure on basic resources
and undermines livelihood security for the local population, resulting in angry
protest movements. Climate change in Iraq is expected to put further strain on water
resources, agriculture and living conditions: 92 per cent of the total area of the country
is at risk of desertification.
47
In contrast to the technologically advanced dam projects
upstream in Turkey and Iran, Iraq’s water infrastructure is heavily damaged and
outdated.
48
In a climate-changing world, WFP, like the rest of the international system, will
have to adjust its programming. It will need to be climate sensitive in all of its work.
It will also need to include the impact of climate change in its conflict analyses, and
to contribute in the food sector to climate adaptation. By helping to build resilience,
it will be contributing across all the fields of humanitarian, development, peace and
climate action.
Measuring peace
To repeat, peace is complex and improving the prospects for it is too. Peace is multi-
faceted, culturally shaped and contested. It includes elements such as feelings and
relationships that are not easily quantifiable. Measuring contributions to the improved
prospects for peace, therefore, is challenging. Among the main challenges are:
•
Challenges of attribution.
In a fast-changing conflict, in which there are
multiple interventions from a range of agencies, it is difficult to claim that a
particular change was due to a specific intervention.
e.g. Rüttinger, L. et al.,
A New Climate for Peace: Taking Action on Climate and Fragility Risks
(Adelphi,
International Alert, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and European Union Institute for Security
Studies, 2015); see also Krampe, F. and Smith, D., ‘Climate-related security risks in the Middle East’, eds A. Jägerskog,
M. Schulz and A. Swain,
Routledge Handbook on Middle East Security
(Routledge: London, 2019).
46
Expert Working Group on Climate-related Security Risks, ‘Iraq: Climate-related security risk assessment’, Aug.
2018.
47
Expert Working Group on Climate-related Security Risks (note 46).
48
Luchtenberg, K., ‘Iraq’s watershed moment: Hydropolitics and peacebuilding’, LSE Middle East Centre Blog,
19 July 2018.
45
See
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
22
wfp’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace
•
Intangibility of results.
Among the changes necessary to build peace are
intangible ones such as greater trust and tolerance.
•
Fragility of results.
The progress of a peace process is rarely smooth.
Reverses and hiatuses are common. Especially in impoverished countries,
it may not take more than a few hundred disgruntled people with access to
weapons to reverse the gains of several years of building peace. Claims of
success and registering achievements are often rather tenuous.
•
Complexity of causality.
Addressing conflict is often complex because the
causal pathway is unclear and changeable. Many social, economic, political
and security factors come together to generate violence or create a sustainable
peace. The large number of intervening variables makes it difficult to identify
the relative importance of different issues.
•
Constraints on data collection.
Not only can it be difficult to access the
relevant people due to conflict, but people may be traumatized, it may be
difficult to ask questions about conflict or the conflict might be hidden.
For these reasons, monitoring, evaluation and impact assessment are challenging
tasks. They are made more difficult when activities aimed at improving the prospects
for peace have an unclear purpose, when TOCs are implicit or weak, or when conflict
analysis is inadequate. They are also difficult when, as is often necessary, interventions
are deliberately experimental because unfamiliar problems are to be addressed.
As WFP establishes itself as a humanitarian and development agency with the aim
of helping to improve the prospects for peace wherever possible, it will need to iden-
tify ways to manage and minimize these challenges. In so doing, because of its scale,
it is capable of making a major, if indirect, contribution to improving monitoring,
evaluation and assessment throughout the fields of humanitarian action, development
assistance and peacebuilding.
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
4. Enhancing WFP’s contributions to improving
the prospects for peace
In chapter 2, we identified WFP’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace,
based on the four case studies from which five meta theories of change were derived.
In this chapter, we set out how WFP can enhance its contribution to improving the
prospects for peace. These are our preliminary conclusions and recommendations on
how WFP can fulfil its stated ambitions on contributing to improving the prospects
for peace. They do not entail WFP diverging from its mandate and the core nature
of its work. Rather, our findings are about the need to go about programming and
activities differently. To this end, we have identified five main areas of change for
WFP and 11 action points.
Conflict analysis to ensure conflict sensitivity
Chapter 3 outlined the importance of conflict-sensitive programming. While many
country offices are taking steps to apply conflict-sensitive approaches, a key finding of
this research is that conflict sensitivity in programming is not sufficiently institutional-
ized. Working in this way, without clear corporate processes or accountability, can
result in conflict-sensitivity risks, as emerged in the country case studies.
Conflict analysis is the basis of conflict-sensitive programming. Without a strong
analysis, it is impossible to assess a programme’s potential interaction with conflict. The
analysis must strike a balance between capturing the complexities of armed conflict
and being programme relevant. There needs to be a recognition of the limitations
of conflict analysis in providing a complete account. While it is necessary, it cannot
generate a fully accurate understanding of a conflict-affected social system. Even the
best conflict analysis will be provisional.
49
It is therefore important not to regard it
as a one-off activity. The best conflict analysis is actually one that is continuously
refreshed with new facts as they emerge, new insights and new perspectives. With
this in mind, in order to usefully inform programme design and implementation,
conflict analysis should be:
•
Documented.
Capturing the analysis is valuable for incoming staff, and for
revisiting programme design decisions when the context shifts.
•
Process-oriented.
The need to produce a document can result in conflict
analysis being contracted out and then left on a shelf. That will not inform
programming. The process of the conflict analysis should engage staff and
partners in discussions.
•
A live document.
The conflict analysis should be a rolling document, updated
in the light of significant changes in the context or at least every year prior to
new resource allocations.
•
Robust.
The conflict analysis should include analysis of:
o
o
o
o
drivers of conflict, including underlying and structural causes of conflict,
triggers of conflict and other drivers such as the availability of weapons;
actors, such as the people and groups involved in the conflict, their aims and
means;
power dynamics and relations; and
broader social trends, including plausible scenarios and windows of
opportunity for peace.
49
De Coning, C. (note 40).
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
2118147_0032.png
24
wfp’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace
Box 4.1.
A conflict sensitivity, gender and environmental risk screening checklist in
Kyrgyzstan
The Kyrgyzstan country office has developed an integrated risk screening for all community projects when
they are in the preparation stage. The checklist was designed to implement the World Food Programme’s
peacebuilding principles and policies in the programme activities with the purpose to enhance positive
peacebuilding, gender and environmental opportunities as well as to ensure that adverse risks and impacts
are avoided, minimised and mitigated. The checklist requires field monitors to confirm that they have:
•
•
•
•
Analysed the local conflict context;
Considered possible conflict risks;
Considered specific risks relating to water, pasture, arable land and services; and
Assessed whether the project might exacerbate conflict.
The checklist is then submitted to the project review committee which in case of potential negative impacts
conducts additional proposal review and carefully considers it for thorough risk assessments and decision.
•
Programme-relevant and at an appropriate level of granularity.
While
acknowledging wider conflict dynamics, the analysis should focus on the
geographic area in which the programme will be implemented, should
consider issues relevant to the programme and should understand the
regional nuances.
Compared to some other organizations, staff capacity for conflict sensitivity is low in
WFP. In both Mali and Kyrgyzstan, the country offices benefit from a specialist peace
and conflict position (see box 4.1); in Kyrgyzstan, the country office has integrated
the process of screening projects for their conflict, gender and environmental impact.
Beyond these two roles, staff conceptualization of conflict sensitivity was very mixed,
and understandings of WFP’s possible contribution to peace varied from deep and
nuanced to simplistic. Building staff competence in conflict sensitivity is crucial. This
is particularly true for an organization such as WFP, which relies heavily on decentral-
ized decision making. There is a demand from country teams for this training and
it was noted that corporate support for building competencies in this area would be
welcome. Along with this, of course, staff responsibility for operationalizing conflict
sensitivity and accountability for its part of satisfactory performance must be included
in the job descriptions for all relevant staff positions.
Recommendation 1.
Incorporate conflict analysis throughout WFP’s programme planning and
implementation cycle.
Recommendation 2.
Build staff competence in conflict sensitivity and peacebuilding by systematically
providing training in these areas.
Recommendation 3.
Include responsibility and accountability for conflict sensitivity in job descriptions.
Targeting
A systematic commitment to conflict analysis along the lines indicated above would
significantly help WFP to navigate concerns around targeting. Conflict analysis, if
done correctly, will interrogate community dynamics and power relations, which in
turn can mitigate any inclusion/exclusion errors. In situations where WFP seeks to
access hidden populations, the conflict analysis process must not only interrogate
local dynamics and relations, but also capture how these connect to wider regional
and national conflict dynamics. This need was clearly illustrated in El Salvador,
where IDP populations wished to remain hidden given the ability of perpetrators to
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
enhancing the wfp’s contributions
2 5
locate displaced persons because a wide network of gangs reaches into most parts of
the country. The location of beneficiaries is not requested by WFP. Nor is such infor-
mation revealed in those cases where beneficiary location does become part of the data
obtained by WFP. Nonetheless, the fear that such information might leak can result
in intended beneficiaries from hidden or other vulnerable populations not providing
data required by WFP and thus risking exclusion from the intervention.
Recommendation 4.
Focus conflict analysis on ensuring that targeting assistance does not run the risk of
increasing exclusion.
Holistic approach
The most promising areas for WFP’s contribution to improving the prospects for
peace demonstrate the need to look beyond individual projects and individual actors.
An individual activity may successfully achieve its short-term outcomes but such suc-
cesses do not necessarily add up to real progress towards peace. One reason for this
is that both conflict sensitivity and contributing to improving the prospects for peace
present a series of ‘wicked problems’.
50
Wicked problems are frustrating because they
have no single correct solution and the problems themselves refuse to stand still; they
alter across time, often in response to the efforts made to resolve them. Faced by such
problems, the most appropriate and efficient course of action is not to look for the first-
best solution, but rather to go for best-fit solutions, unique to their different contexts.
Thinking holistically means, among other things, a recognition that no single actor
can resolve the wicked problem of peace in a given country or in part of it. An agency’s
contribution may be important—but may be of genuine impact only if it is dovetailed
with another intervention from a different source. Overall, programming should be a
set of mutually reinforcing efforts that include enhancing social cohesion and trust,
improving livelihoods, strengthening resilience and reducing the risk of violence.
Drawing on successful experiences found in the four country case studies, working
in this way could look something like the following:
•
Facilitated needs assessment with communities.
An exploratory process
to understand a community’s needs, including but not limited to food security;
this would be led by communities rather than being based on a survey.
•
Partnership with a range of actors.
The needs assessment would be likely
to identify needs beyond the mandate of WFP; other agencies should be
involved in responding to them.
•
Long-term, continuous support.
If the intended impact will only be felt in
the long term or is hard to sustain without assistance, WFP and its donors
should commit to supporting and accompanying the community over several
years.
•
Multiple rounds of transfers.
This allows for continuous improvements
in targeting to reduce inclusion/exclusion errors. It also provides learning
opportunities to demonstrate accountability and responsiveness.
•
Integrated approach.
As an integrated programme, it would draw on the
full range of WFP’s possible programming, beyond general food assistance,
problems have six main features: (a) the problem is not understood or defined until the solution is
formed; (b) there is no stopping rule for formulating a solution; (c) there is no right or wrong solution (often because
different solutions may be preferred on different dimensions); (d) every wicked problem is, by definition, unique and
novel; (e) every solution is unique (one shot); and (
f
) there are no given alternative solutions. See Conklin, J.,
Dialogue
Mapping: Building Shared Understanding of Wicked Problems
(Wiley: West Sussex, 2006).
50
Wicked
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
2118147_0034.png
2 6
wfp’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace
Box 4.2.
Supporting return and reconciliation
The case of Iraq shows that resilience/rehabilitation programming can be a vehicle for building
relationships across divided groups, as cooperation partners brokered deals between divided tribes to
enable canal rehabilitation projects to proceed. In the Iraqi context, there are not only tribal divides, but
also sectarian and ethnic divisions, as well as pervasive anger towards perceived Islamic State-affiliated
families in which a relative, sometimes quite distant, is accused of having been supportive of the Islamic
State. These perceived Islamic State-affiliated families have largely not been able to return to their homes
and remain in internally displaced person (IDP) camps due to rejection by their communities. There are no
obvious durable solutions for this section of society.
However, some local peacebuilding actors, such as the Iraqi Facilitators Network (IFN, hosted by Sanad),
have succeeded in negotiating significant returns. In Yathrib in Saladin Governorate, IFN negotiated the
return of approximately 40 000 Sunni IDPs who were previously rejected by the remaining Shia community
as perceived IS-affiliated families. This was a long-term negotiation process, but IFN’s support dropped
off at the point of return even though the need for reconciliation was clear. This represents a potential
entry point for the World Food Programme—where resilience and rehabilitation can take on a specific aim
of supporting reconciliation and reintegration. This would need to be part of a more holistic approach,
working with others to provide a wider package of support.
To achieve this level of ambition would require knowing when these nascent ‘windows of opportunity’ are
open and which processes should be supported. Partnerships with other groups, such as Sanad and IFN,
could help to identify these opportunities. The design of such interventions could also be linked to the
nature of the return pact, ensuring that only voluntary and dignified returns are supported.
beyond FFA and FFT, beyond livelihoods and into broader social skills, as
required.
•
Careful targeting.
If the intention is to reach a specific group—for example,
young people at risk of recruitment into armed groups or gangs—the best
possible efforts must be made to understand the pool of potential recruits and
their social dynamics.
Building knowledge about the effectiveness of working in this way within WFP is an
important part of the organizational development now required.
Recommendation 5.
Ensure a holistic programming approach by adopting a design process that brings
together different types of intervention.
Recommendation 6.
Strengthen programming capacities by ensuring programme staff are familiar with
evidence of what has worked and what has not in previous interventions.
Partnerships
Emphasising the holistic approach indicates the necessity for partnerships with
different actors in various sectors. In particular, in conflict or complex settings,
cooperation partners such as local NGOs can enable access not only for needs
assessments, but also for delivery as well as monitoring and reporting.
51
While such
partnerships help to push the boundaries of humanitarian assistance to meet the needs
of those who would otherwise be inaccessible, WFP’s approach has generally taken a
contractual cooperation partner format and worked in silos. Working to improve the
prospects for peace requires a different approach to partnerships. Critical friends and
partners in reflection, planning and evaluation are required to act as sounding boards
and sources of knowledge and wisdom; they can help not only with deeper contextual
knowledge, but also with networks. The evidence from one case in Iraq shows how
such partnership might look (see box 4.2).
Policy Evaluation: WFP Corporate Partnership Strategy, 2014–2017,
Evaluation Report OEV/2016/010
(WFP: Rome, 2017).
51
WFP,
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
enhancing the wfp’s contributions
27
Recommendation 7.
Develop multi-sector, multi-stakeholder partnerships to meet the different needs and
priorities of vulnerable populations and to ensure greater synergies among WFP-
supported interventions.
Measurement of contributions to improving the prospects for peace
Evidence compiled through this research suggests that WFP is able to make important
contributions to improving the prospects for peace. However, its monitoring and
evaluation systems are not designed to capture and measure many of these contri-
butions. The metrics WFP uses to assess performance in delivering to the most
vulnerable in the most difficult and complex places, often acting as service provider
of last resort, say little about the prospects for peace. Developing, testing and getting
familiar with a new approach to measurement is a major task for WFP.
Current measurements and data inadequate for measuring contribution to peace
Further compounding the challenge, WFP utilizes a Corporate Results Framework
(CRF), which provides a menu of corporate indicators from which country offices must
select the most suitable to their context and country portfolio. While this approach
allows for systematic comparisons between different countries and contexts, it is ill-
suited to measurement of peacebuilding interventions which should be context-driven.
In El Salvador, for example, the WFP country team expressed concern over the
inability of the CRF to capture important contributions to peace. FFA initiatives
build community cohesion through generating spaces where community members
gather and discuss problems of common interest, beyond the specific issues related
to the WFP intervention. In some cases, mutual support groups and rotating savings
schemes were established by the communities within these spaces. The extended and
sustained functioning of such local community networks is an indicator of improved
community cohesion in a context where protracted violence has fomented a culture of
mistrust. However, these unexpected benefits were not part of the monitoring frame-
work and are not systematically documented or monitored. Similarly, in Mali’s Peers
for Peace programme (see box 2.6), the observations of cooperation partners were not
an element of the monitoring plan, even though they could be captured through other
techniques such as community journals or movement maps.
Recommendation 8.
Develop the capacity to generate contextually calibrated indicators of progress on
contributing to improving the prospects for peace.
Using existing data and measurements differently
Assessing WFP’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace cannot be done
simply by modifying WFP’s current data and evaluation systems. These are impressive,
should be maintained and can be called on to meet some of the needs for assessing the
contributions to improving the prospects for peace. However, there is no avoiding a
change in what WFP measures and how. To assess and report on WFP’s contribution
to peace, work must begin on conflict analyses and use a combination of qualitative,
quantitative and visual measures. Indicators that aim to capture local and subjective
dimensions of peace should be developed in conjunction with the community affected
by the interventions. Since an important aspect of peacebuilding is to foster changes
in individuals and relationships between people, the development of indicators should
include not only project beneficiaries, but the wider community. Because of the wicked
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
2 8
wfp’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace
nature of the problem (see above), assessment must be carried out in real time so that
the necessary adjustments to programme activities can be quickly made.
Both qualitative and quantitative indicators are important. Qualitative indicators
are well-suited to capturing subjective understandings of peace, including what peace
means for the communities served by WFP and how it is experienced in their everyday
lives. They reflect the various dimensions of peace and resist oversimplification.
Quantitative indicators can aggregate complex findings and effectively demonstrate
what happened and how much, while qualitative indicators can reveal how something
is working and why this happens.
Since peacebuilding fundamentally seeks to achieve change in divided societies (see
‘WFP programming and the prospects for peace’ in chapter 1), longitudinal studies are
particularly useful for assessing the impact of WFP’s interventions on the prospect
for peace. They gauge change over time in a defined population through repeated
measurements which are analysed against baseline data. While it can be complicated
and costly to carry out longitudinal surveys in conflict and peacebuilding environ-
ments, WFP’s well-established presence in many such areas should make it possible.
Findings from longitudinal studies on what changes occur can be unpacked through
qualitative research on how and why these changes occurred, using methods such
as focus group discussions, key informant interviews, Go-Along interviews or Most
Significant Change techniques.
Existing WFP survey tools reviewed in the case study countries already collect data
that has some utility for understanding WFP’s interactions with conflict and peace-
building environments. The PBF project in Kyrgyzstan has collected a range of relevant
data, using surveys to collect perception-based data to demonstrate reductions in
violence and tensions. Outside of PBF programming, in Iraq, FSOM collects data on
safety issues. In all four case study countries, WFP had begun to work on a complaints
and feedback mechanism (CFM). If well understood and utilized for this purpose by
communities, a CFM can help capture conflict sensitivity concerns.
WFP Regional Bureaux and country offices that were not among our four case
studies also have useful measurement and monitoring tools. The Regional Bureau in
Cairo developed a social cohesion score indicator and piloted it in Egypt and Lebanon,
to assess the degree of acceptance of Syrian nationals by host communities. The indi-
cator measures positive attitudes and acceptance by host nationals by assessing the
agreement of the respondent to several statements. It can be used in activities that
involve both Syrian refugees and host communities, such as FFA and FFT.
Finally, measurement through visual methods can aid the representation of data,
help reveal patterns and facilitate the interpretation of underlying processes. As this
report has repeatedly stated, peace is complex and measuring contributions to the
improved prospects for peace is challenging. Cutting edge data visualization tech-
niques offer new ways to understand big and abstract data on complex processes.
Layering data on to dynamic geographical maps visualizes transformation over time
and space. Data visualization in this way allows the communication of thousands of
data points in a few single images. Compared to tables, text, graphs and charts, the
new data visualization techniques often make new analytical insights possible and
make the data accessible to a wider range of users.
WFP already visualizes part of its data through its vulnerability analysis and mapping
(VAM) approach. Adding layers relevant for understanding conflict and peacebuilding
can help understand how drivers of conflict change over time and space, which in turn
allows for a better calibrated response. Layers relevant for understanding conflict
and peacebuilding could include lethal and non-lethal conflict-related violent events,
and the spread of organized violence, acts of terrorism, arms transfers and refugee
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
enhancing the wfp’s contributions
2 9
movements.
52
Further layers could be added related to climate change, for example,
featuring temperatures, water volumes and flows in lakes and river basins, dry zones
and the changing extent of grazing land.
Recommendation 9.
Expand WFP’s toolkit for monitoring, evaluation and assessment to include more
qualitative methods and a systematic approach to data visualization.
Recommendation 10.
Combine standard survey methods with techniques such as interviews and focus
groups to improve measurement.
External data
Data on conflict and violence is collected by a number of local, national and inter-
national actors. Some are primary sources (entities directly involved in the collection
or recording of events) and some are secondary sources (those that compile data from
a range of different sources). Primary sources include surveys and studies of public
perceptions on issues such as social cohesion, the prospects for the future and/or trust
in government.
53
Where WFP staff do not have the skills or access to conduct in-depth community
consultations, other specialist agencies can help. There is a large body of external data
that WFP can draw on both to understand changes in a macro conflict context and to
help understand the organization’s contribution to improving the prospects for peace.
Existing conflict data gathered from other sources can be a useful measure of the
degree to which an area is affected by conflict and an indication of the complex con-
ditions in which WFP works. Using external data alongside WFP’s own data can help
inform strategic planning to support implementation in conflict and peacebuilding
environments.
Finally, the trends identified in these statistics, and how they change over time,
can tell a story about trends in peace. This could be linked to shifts in portfolio, from
emergency assistance and general food distribution (GFD) to livelihoods and resili-
ence. It will not be possible to attribute a perceived decline in violence to the work of
WFP, but that should not preclude WFP from noting where positive trends in peace
are correlated with positive trends in sustainable food security outcomes.
Recommendation 11.
Familiarize WFP with external data sources.
Recommendation 12.
Supplement WFP skill sets and knowledge by working with partner organizations.
is available from conflict databases such as the Uppsala Conflict Data Project; and the Armed Conflict
Location and Event Data project. Terrorism data is available from the Global Terrorism Database; and arms transfers
data is available from the SIPRI Arms Transfers Database. Data on refugees is available from UNHCR.
53
See the World Bank conflict survey module and Afrobarometer as well as the Gallup World Values Survey polling
questions.
52
Data
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
5. Summary of recommendations
WFP has the dual mandate of meeting humanitarian need and supporting social and
economic development by building long-term food security. Because an estimated
80 per cent of humanitarian needs are driven by violent conflict, the question arises:
what is the impact of WFP’s operations in conflict-affected contexts and what
could it be beyond the humanitarian and development space? The UN Secretary-
General’s leadership has provided an invigorated imperative not only to meet urgent
humanitarian need, but also to address the long-term causes of violent conflict; and
WFP signed up to the Peace Promise in 2016. For WFP, this means both striving to
do no harm and examining its potential contribution to improving the prospects for
peace. The threefold task of working across the triple humanitarian, development and
peace nexus is consistent with WFP’s mandate because conflict generates need. The
WFP is not the only actor called on to carry out this work; nor does it have a mono-
poly on knowledge. It does, however, gain access to locations where vulnerability is
extreme and insecurity is rife, and where there is often no other international actor
engaged. It does have useful knowledge and experience. It has a part to play along
with others.
The evidence compiled for this report indicates that some WFP programmes do con-
tribute to improving the prospects for peace. There are, however, problems, deficien-
cies and missed opportunities that need to be addressed. It is for this reason that the
knowledge partnership with SIPRI was initiated. This preliminary report is based on
studies of WFP programming in only four countries. Further work is required to test
the robustness and general applicability of the findings and recommendations. That
said, while the recommendations below may in time be expanded, deepened or fine-
tuned, we are confident that, whatever else WFP does, it needs to make at least these
changes in order to fulfil its ambitions.
Based on the analysis in chapter 4 above, these recommendations are necessary
action points for changing how WFP goes about its programming:
1. Incorporate conflict analysis throughout WFP’s programme planning and
implementation cycle.
2. Build staff competence in conflict sensitivity and peacebuilding by
systematically providing training in these areas.
3. Include responsibility and accountability for conflict sensitivity in job
descriptions.
4. Focus conflict analysis on ensuring that targeting assistance does not run the
risk of increasing exclusion.
5. Ensure a holistic programming approach by adopting a design process that
brings together different types of intervention.
6. Strengthen programming capacities by ensuring programme staff are familiar
with evidence of what has worked and what has not in previous interventions.
7. Develop multi-sector, multi-stakeholder partnerships to meet the different
needs and priorities of vulnerable populations and to ensure greater synergies
among WFP-supported interventions.
8. Develop the capacity to generate contextually calibrated indicators of
progress on contributing to improving the prospects for peace.
9. Expand WFP’s toolkit for monitoring, evaluation and assessment to include
more qualitative methods and a systematic approach to data visualization.
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
summary of recommendations
31
10. Combine standard survey methods with techniques such as interviews and
focus groups to improve measurement.
11. Familiarize WFP with external data sources.
12. Supplement WFP skill sets and knowledge by working with partner
organizations.
Each of these recommendations is a modest and rather easily digestible technical
adjustment in how WFP works, rather than a major change of direction. Taken
together, however, they will effect a significant enhancement of WFP’s contribution to
improving the prospects for peace. Beyond these, it is more than certain that further
inquiry into other countries where WFP works and into specific sectors of work such
as general food assistance, cash transfers and others will identify further challenges.
In a climate-changing world of deepening political instability and growing human
insecurity, the need for WFP to work across the three pillars of humanitarian action,
peace and development will not recede. In a changing world, the way to alleviate need
changes too. Here are set out some initial steps to start down that road.
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
2118147_0040.png
Annex A. Imputed theories of change from the four
case study countries
Country
Kyrgyzstan
Theories of change
Livelihoods investments
If
poor and vulnerable people acquire new skills, diversify their livelihoods and increase
income,
then
they can meet essential household needs remaining in their location, reducing
frustration and grievance towards the state.
If
natural resources are enhanced and equitable agreements are reached on their use,
then
conflict / tensions over natural resource access between competing user groups will reduce.
If
livelihoods are strengthened through an inclusive participatory process,
then
the
community will work together, which signals a positive change in circumstances, reducing
a sense of marginalization and strengthening resilience, and will provide purpose and
meaningful employment to youth at risk of recruitment into armed groups.
Iraq
El Salvador
If
livelihood options are increased in areas of return and communities thrive,
then
rural
communities will not present an enabling environment for radical groups.
If
urban youth at risk of stigma, violence and displacement have opportunities for socio-
economic inclusion and access to safe spaces,
then
they connect and develop, become
agents of change in their communities and support themselves and their families without
becoming caught up in conflict dynamics.
If
returnees and internally displaced persons have access to transitional humanitarian
assistance linked to a comprehensive package of support,
then
they have improved
opportunities for sustainable economic, socio- and psychosocial reintegration.
State–citizen links
Kyrgyzstan
If
the government develops responsive, inclusive and accountable institutions at the national
and subnational levels, and enhances service delivery,
then
citizens will increasingly trust
the state.
If
the school meals programme is delivered efficiently and is recognized as a public service,
then
this reduces the sense of neglect and marginalization, and may contribute to restoring
state legitimacy, strengthening citizen-state relationships
If
government enhances and maintains its performance in the provision of basic social
services, including education and nutrition,
then
this signals the state’s willingness and
ability to respond to its population’s needs and citizens will trust the state.
If
the school meals programme contributes to keeping schools open,
then
they can help
strengthen the stabilizing role of education among communities affected by crisis
Iraq
If
the government is seen to reduce corruption and increase the effectiveness of the public
distribution system (PDS),
then
this will improve performance legitimacy, fostering citizen
trust towards the state.
If
technical solutions are provided for the government to more efficiently manage the
PDS,
then
the government will be receptive to shifting from a blanket provision of PDS to a
targeted PDS.
El Salvador
If
mechanisms to connect citizens to local authorities are strengthened and referrals are
made to enhance access and the quality of service delivery,
then
this contributes to fostering
state–citizen trust.
Enhancing access to and the supply of contested natural resources
Kyrgyzstan
If
natural resource infrastructure is improved to enhance efficiency and allow separate
access by different ethnic groups,
then
there will be a reduction in tensions over natural
resource management.
If
risks associated with climate change are mitigated and livelihoods are more adaptive,
diversified and resilient,
then
stress over natural resource access will be reduced, and future
conflict over natural resource management will be prevented.
El Salvador
If
rural communities vulnerable to climate change and violence have access to: (a) avenues
for community participation; (b) diversified income sources; (c) increased knowledge; and
(d) improved management of natural resources,
then
there will be increased social cohesion
and greater resilience to contextual conflict dynamics.
Community-based participatory approach
Kyrgyzstan
If
parents actively engage in school committees to oversee the free school meals
programme,
then
they will build relationships among one another.
Mali
Mali
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
2118147_0041.png
annex a
33
Country
Mali
Theories of change
If
local communities mobilize themselves to manage the school meals programme through,
for example, school management committees,
then
they will demonstrate good governance
at the grassroots level and strengthen shared values, cooperation and trust among
community members.
If
communities strengthen conflict mediation mechanisms, and local livelihoods are
improved through income generation strategies,
then
communities will be more resilient to
violent conflict related to natural resource management, and intra- and inter-community
trust will be strengthened.
Iraq
If
communities work together to identify common needs, and collectively respond to these
needs,
then
relationships will be fostered across ethnic/sectarian/tribal/other divides
General food assistance and stabilization
If
distributions reach communities at times of extreme food insecurity,
then
these can help
communities to better respond to crises and enable communities to remain in their place
of origin, thereby avoiding tensions between host and IDP (Internally displaced person)
communities.
If
distributions are provided to both host and IDP communities,
then
this can prevent
tensions over access to resources.
Mali
Iraq
If
support is provided to the most impoverished and marginalized IDPs (including those
accused of association with the Islamic State),
then
this will reassert their humanity and
help prevent radicalization among such individuals.
If
the government provides support (PDS and from the Ministry of Labour and Social
Affairs) to the most impoverished and marginalized IDPs (including those accused of
association with the Islamic State),
then
these IDPs will increase their trust in the state and
this will prevent radicalization among these individuals.
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
About the authors
Caroline Delgado
(Sweden) is a Researcher at SIPRI with the Peace and Development
Programme. Her current research is on sustainable peace, including making use of
geographic information systems (GIS) technologies as a way of inquiring into complex
conflict dynamics. Caroline has a background in both academic and policy-oriented
research, specializing in how security is understood, practised and produced in
conflict and post-conflict transition contexts. She received her PhD in Humanitarian
and Conflict Response from the University of Manchester.
Suyoun Jang
(South Korea) is a Researcher at SIPRI with the Peace and Development
Programme. Her current research is on state fragility, human fragility, food security
and peace, triple nexus, and Korean and Swedish ODA in conflict-affected fragile
states. Suyoun was seconded to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
as Technical Adviser to support the PRAIA Group on Governance Statistics in Praia,
Cape Verde from 1 November 2016 to 31 March 2017. Suyoun received her PhD in
International Studies (Development Cooperation) from the Ewha Womans University.
Gary Milante
(United States) is the Director of Studies for Peace and Development
at SIPRI. His research focuses on the intersection of security and socio-economic
development throughout his career as a researcher and policy advisor. Before joining
SIPRI, he was a Senior Economist for the World Bank working on fragility, conflict and
violence and was the lead economist for the
World Development Report 2011: Conflict
Security and Development.
Gary received his PhD in Economics from the University of
California at Irvine.
Dan Smith
(United Kingdom) is the Director of SIPRI. He has a long record of research
and publication on a wide range of conflict and peace issues, including the relationship
between climate change and insecurity, peace and security issues in the Middle
East, peacebuilding, the ethics of forcible intervention in conflicts, gender aspects of
conflict and peacebuilding, and global conflict trends. Dan served four years in the
UN Peacebuilding Fund Advisory group, two of which (2010–11) were as Chair.
 URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 70: Materiale fra World Food Programme (WFP) om sammenhængen mellem sult, konflikt og fred
2118147_0044.png
Signalistgatan 9
SE-169 72 Solna, Sweden
Telephone: +46 8 655 97 00
Email: [email protected]
Internet: www.sipri.org
© SIPRI 2019