URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 170: Materiale til virtuel briefing den 14. maj 2020 ved UNDPs regionale direktør for Afrika om den aktuelle situation og håndtering af COVID-19 i Afrika syd for Sahara

Udenrigsudvalget 2019-20
URU Alm.del Bilag 170
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Understanding and Tackling the

Socio-Economic Dimensions of

COVID-19

in Africa

Regional Bureau for Africa

URU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 170: Materiale til virtuel briefing den 14. maj 2020 ved UNDPs regionale direktør for Afrika om den aktuelle situation og håndtering af COVID-19 i Afrika syd for Sahara

Current Status -- Epidemiology + Response

African Countries

Reported Cases

Almost

12,000

Reported Cases

African Countries

Declares State of Emergency

African countries

African Countries

With Immigration Restriction

Confirmed Fatalities

Countries

African Countries

have Announced Economic

and Social Assistance Packages

with Travel Bans

Current Status – Macroeconomic Impacts

Reduced GDP Growth

• Productivity Losses

• Fall in Growth Projections

Weakened Trade

• Falling Demand for Africa’s

Exports

• Disruption of Critical Imports

• Deteriorating Trade Balance

Debt Crisis

• Rising External Debt stock

• Growing Debt Service

• Domestic Debt Increase

Increased Unemployment

• Job Losses in Public and Private

Sectors

• Disrupted Supply Chains

Decimate SMEs

• Knock on Effects in Non-Formal

Economy

Domestic Price Volatility

• Scarcities Fuel Inflation

• Imported Inflation Likely

Diverse Country Contexts

The COVID-19 Spectrum

Prevention

A. Robust Response

(The

Singapore

Model)

•

Effective screening

•

Tracking system in place

•

Messaging and cultural

adaptation

Response

•

Effective tracing + tracking

•

Expanded and accessible testing

•

Augmented medical

infrastructure

•

Adequate + protected response

and support staff

Recovery

•

Transition and recovery

plan in place

•

Focus on individuals and

communities

•

Rebuilding SMEs

•

Effective, but

inconsistent screening

B. Uneven Response

(The

Hong Kong

Model)

•

Tracking in place

•

Mixed messages over

time

•

Weak and delayed

screening

•

Delay in tracking

•

Weak messaging and

poor cultural adaptation

•

Patchy and unsustained tracking

•

Transition and recovery

+ tracing

plans, not comprehensive

•

Some testing, but not consistent

•

Focus on resuming

•

Augmented, but inadequate

business as usual

•

Interventions not

medical facilities and staff

•

Sporadic social distancing

coordinated

•

Weak tracing + tracking

•

Incomplete coverage or testing

•

Overwhelmed facilities,

inadequate equipment

•

Delayed social distancing

•

Weak or non-existent

transition + recovery plans

•

Focus on resuming

business as usual

•

Interventions not fully

closed or coordinated

C. Weak Response

(The

Italy

Model)

In some slums . . . . .

Less than 20% have pipe

borne water (Lagos)

71% of households live in a

single room (Kampala)

Population density is 9,000

per sq km (Johannesburg)

Medical facilities

Intensive care beds:

Kenya (130)

Uganda (55)

Malawi (25)

1 doctor per 5,000

Understanding COVID-19 Transmission in Africa

African Countries are

NOT

Exempt

• While some African countries might prevent domestic transmission, . . . . .

• . . . . . Africa’s COVID-19 wave might be lagged.

• Where there is domestic transmission, COVID-19 is likely to overwhelm

health care infrastructure in most countries.

• The experience from other

countries gives some

indication of SSA’s

potential COVID-19

trajectory.

Week 1

Iran

France

Italy

Spain

Week 2

191

152

674

Week 3

245

663

1036

6043

Week 4

4747

4499

6362

21157

Week 5

12729

South Africa ?

402

927

1845

Africa Transmission Analytics

Enhance Core Capacity

• Improve existing facilities.

• Train medical and medical support

staff.

• Provide additional facilities -

convert school + hotels.

• Bolster primary health care

infrastructure.

• Sharpen the narrative.

• Community engagement/outreach.

Capacity constraints could undermine the effort,

even with a flatter curve

Africa Transmission Analytics

Beware of the Plateau

• Prepare for a much longer

response phase.

• Decentralized stocks and

response capacity.

• Cater for much larger population

of COVID-19 infections.

• Develop more sustained

community engagement

strategies.

• Expand non-traditional

partnerships.

The flattened curve could hang a protracted

“HUMP” because of cultural and capacity issues.

Africa Transmission Analytics

Prepare for Multiple Humps

• Prioritize sustained consistency in

response effort.

• Longer term efforts should be

programmatic; not isolated projects.

• Premature declarations of victory

should be avoided.

• Politically- motivated timeline

should be avoided.

• Invest in sustained community level

response.

• Sustain messaging and community

education.

Initial gain could be undermined or reversed if

response is inconsistent; creating double, or

multiple, humps.

Africa Transmission Analytics

Develop Innovative Ways to Flatten

the Curve

• Create “safe spaces” for household

isolation in marginalized/vulnerable

communities.

• Intensity creative and continuous

civic education campaign.

• Plan for immediate and sustained

distribution of water and sanitizers.

• Establish community-based, peer

support mechanisms to enforce

social distancing.

• Introduce income generation and

retail opportunities.

Flattening the curve in Africa would remove

much more than traditional hand-washing and

social distancing. Community living, non-formal

economies, slums and refugee/IOP camps

Tackling Socio-Economic Effects

Potential Socio-Economic Pathways in Africa

COVID-19

Shocks

•

Global

•

Domestic

First Order Effects

Economic

• GDP drops

• Trade Balance worsens

• Job and livelihood losses

Social

• Social spending reduced

• Disproportionate impact

on vulnerable groups

• Social services disrupted

Political

• Politicized responses

Second Order Effects

Economic

• Domestic supply chains

collapse

• Economic activity stalls

• Increased non-formal activity

Social

• Widespread deprivation

• Social disaffection

• Breakdown in social services

Political

• Erosion of trust

• Politicization of law

enforcement

Third Order Effects

Economic

• Recession

• Debt crisis

• Financial distress

Social

• Vulnerable groups

victimized

• Societal unrest

Political

• Political unrest

• Political violence

Socio-Economic Political Impacts

Societal Effects

• Cuts in social spending will affect the

poor disproportionately.

• Women and children will be “left

behind.”

• Daily-waged (particularly in the non-

formal sector) will experience rapid

asset depletion.

• Existing health challenges

exacerbated – e.g. HIV and malaria

• IDPs and refugee camps are

particularly vulnerable.

• Increases in prices of basic

commodities will heighten tensions.

• Cultural and religious adaptation of

protocols (like social distancing)

could be problematic.

Political Effects

• Potential politicization of the

government’s response could

increase political animosity.

• Weak government responses

could further undermine the social

compact and erode trust.

• COVID-19 restrictions could be

instrumentalized for electoral

purposes. Guinea's 22 March

parliamentary elections were not

postponed. Upcoming: Burundi

(20 May); Malawi (2 July);

Ethiopia (16 August); Cote

d’Ivoire (31 October).

Economic Policy Responses:

An Assets-Based Approach

Household

Income

Accumulative

of Assets

Intensity

of Asset

Use

Return to

Assets

Prices

Transfers

Prices

External

Shocks

Policy Actions

Rapid Investments in:

- Human capital

- Social capital

- Financial capital

- Physical capital

Re-Balance Crisis

Value Chain by:

- Buying local

- Encouraging

‘economics of

mutuality’

- Expanding

market size

Prioritize

Macroeconomic

Stability and

Fiscal

Management

Facilitate and

Expedite

Diaspora

Transfers

Source: adapted from Lopez-Calva, Land Rodriguez-Castelan (2016)

Opportunities and Challenges

Opportunities

•

Explore new markets

for exports from SSA within the context of AfCFTA and

regional trade arrangements. Prioritizing, facilitating and promoting intra-

African trade could forestall losses in productive and jobs.

•

Identify niche opportunities,

that could trigger manufacturing and service

sectors, by filling supply gaps created by the COVID-19 crisis. UK-based

Mologic plans to start producing COVID-19 diagnostic kits in Senegal.

•

Invest in retraining staff and repurposing spare industrial capacity

(in

countries like South Africa, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal and

Cote d’Ivoire) to meet the demand for supplies, equipment and food that may

arise.

•

Institutionalize basic health care standards and facilities

in fragile

communities and for vulnerable group (women and youth). Improved human

capital will yield significant dividend.

•

Promote sustainable livelihoods

develop agriculture and natural resources

based regional value chains and value addition through agribusiness, agro-

processing, eco-tourism

Challenges

• Cultural and behavioral: resistance to COVID-19 response protocols.

• Impracticality of standard COVID-19 protocol: social distancing not practical

in congested urban settlements; hand-washing not possible in the absence of

potable water; communal living arrangements.

• Reaching the non-formal economy with immediate economic and financial

relief packages.

• Finding alternate sources of food, medicine and basic consumer goods.

China’s bounce-back might take a couple of quarters, and both Europe and

the US are currently affected.

• Ongoing peace support (Sahel) and peace making (South Sudan) would be

undermined because of COVID-19 disruptions and delays/reductions

regarding necessary supplies.

• Operationalizing AfCFTA expeditiously.

• Financing effective interventions, while export earning plummet and fiscal

revenues dry up.

• Stigma and fear: false information through social media and lack of trust in

national systems slowing down appropriate response.

Key Messages for Private Sector

SECTOR

FOCUS

Catalyze Solutions

“It’s raining!”

Seize Opportunities

“COVID-19 is a disrupter”

Re-Tool Capacities

“Procurement and logistics

emergency”

Reshape the Narrative

“Overcome societal barriers”

Evidence-Driven Change

“Move the needle”

Fill the Gap

“Leverage long-term solutions”

ACTIONS

Domestic/regional liquidity

Pension funds, etc

Manufacture COVID necessities

Kick-start AfCFTA-related firms

Map viable logistics paths

Pooled procurement?

COVID-19 is not Ebola

This is a socio-economic emergency

Argue against “cut and paste” approaches

Support research

Build coalitions

Have a “theory of change”

Finance

Manufacturing

Industry

The Arts

Advocacy

Philanthropy

Key Messages

• Africa is not exempt, its COVID-19 wave would be lagged.

• COVID-19 would impact African countries differently, and transmission

mechanisms would differ.

• First order epidemiological effects would rapidly translate into social,

political and security impacts.

• COVID-19 provides Africa with unique opportunities to examine new

industrial opportunities, expand regional markets and invest in critical

capital.

• However, to make the most of these opportunities Africa must address

existing and emerging challenges, and invest in critical assets.