Transportudvalget 2019-20
TRU Alm.del Bilag 67
Offentligt
2105185_0001.png
MEMO
ABOUT THE METHODOLOGY FOR THE “STUDY OF DYNAMIC
EFFECTS OF THE FBFL WHICH HAS NOT BEEN CONSIDERED IN THE FTC
STUDY”
Munich, October 2019
The purpose of this memo is to explain the methodology behind the “Study of dynamic effects of
the FBFL which has not been considered in the FTC study”. The study takes as its point of
departure the theory of gravitation. This approach is beyond the scope of standard approaches in
traffic prognosis like the FTC-study. Consequently, the use of gravitation theory is a way to
estimate dynamic effects’ impact on traffic.
(1)
Theory
In physics
gravitation
between two bodies is dependent on
•
the masses of the bodies
•
the distance between the bodies.
This natural law has been adapted both to
(1)
(2)
transport science and
spatial science/regional sciences
and indeed is common ground for both sciences:
•
interaction
(and thus transport and traffic)
between two regions
is
dependent
on the "weight"
of the regions (in terms of population, economic activity) and on the geographical distance or
(more general)
the resistance to overcome the space between these regions.
(2)
Effects the FBFL-project
The FBFL project will, unlike other transport projects which mainly are intended to improve the
conditions for traffic and transport, create a more or less
new quality of connection,
generally
between Scandinavia and the continent and
especially between the regions of Eastern
Denmark/Scania in Scandinavia and Eastern Schleswig-Holstein/Hamburg
in Germany.
Given the "physical laws" of transport and spatial sciences this means in consequence that
activities and thus transport and traffic will grow due to the new FBFL.
1
 TRU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 67: Analyse af trafikprognoserne på Femern Bælt forbindelsen, fra transportministeren
2105185_0002.png
(3)
To what extent have these effects been considered in the FTC-Study?
The FTC-study takes into account how
existing
traffic without FBFL is
redistributed
to the new
situation: traffic would shift from other routes (ferry Rödby
–
Puttgarden, other ferry lines, Great
Belt) and other modes of transport to the FBFL.
In addition, to some extent the results of FTC-study include
“induced
traffic”. Induced traffic is
defined as additional or more frequent trips because of time savings with FBFL given the existing
structures in the regions. In the FTC-model this effect has been calculated only for existing
travellers and without changing the traffic structure in the study area. Consequently, a "gravitation"
effect in the sense of (1) has not been calculated
1
as it is beyond the scope of standard
approaches in traffic prognosis.
(4)
What has not been considered in the FTC-study?
The results of the FTC-study include some "induced traffic" but the FTC-study did not deal with
"dynamic effects",
which is
•
an
intensification of economic and social interaction
between the regions involved (due to
increasing gravitation, see (1))
•
in consequence an
increase of economic activity and housing
in the regions involved (so
called "wider economic effects" of transport projects which are generally accepted in transport
economy), these again lead to an increase of traffic.
Therefore, potential new traffic, generated by factors such as Danish citizens taking a job in
Lübeck and German citizens buying summer cottages in Lolland following the completion of the
FBFL, and even, in goods traffic, new transports due to a strengthening of business relations
between enterprises on both sides of Fehmarn Belt are not calculated in the FTC-study.
Thus, the long term demand effects of the FBFL project have been underestimated in the FTC-
study. This indeed has been pointed out in the due diligence study of the Danish transport ministry
(carried out by COWI).
1
The north-south-traffic has been mapped but not the complete spatial structure of traffic and transport in
the wider study area.
2
 TRU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 67: Analyse af trafikprognoserne på Femern Bælt forbindelsen, fra transportministeren
2105185_0003.png
(5)
Basic approach to modelize the dynamic effects of the FBFL project
If the gravitation theory can be applied successfully for the FBFL project, these "dynamic effects"
(see (4)) can be quantified for the FTC-context: gravitation between the regions north and south
of Femern Belt without the FBFL in comparison to the gravitation in the case with FBFL. If
gravitation can be
a)
b)
measured itself
transferred into traffic and transport multiplicators
the demand effects of the FBFL in terms of additional traffic ("dynamic effects") can be modelized
(see figure below).
(6)
Measuring "resistance" and "masses"
In physics the variables for the gravitation law are just (physical) distance (unit: meters resp. a
multiple of it) and (physical) mass (unit: kilogram resp. a multiple of if). For transport and spatial
sciences these variables are less explicit. Generally, and this has been applied here, the "masses"
of the regions are defined as
population
for passenger traffic (unit: inhabitants of the regions) and
economic activity for freight traffic (unit:
regional GDP,
here in Euro). The variable "distance",
literally, is even not very precise to describe "resistance" between the regions. More appropriate
is travel/transport time. However, the FBFL will be tolled. That means next to time there is another
3
 TRU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 67: Analyse af trafikprognoserne på Femern Bælt forbindelsen, fra transportministeren
2105185_0004.png
kind of resistance. In transport science there is a way to
combine travel time and travel costs
in a unit called
Generalized (transport) Costs
(time is transferred into costs using the value of
time (VoT) as conversion factor). A matrix of Generalized Transport Costs between all regions of
the study area is available from the FTC study. Population and GDP data for each region north of
Femern are even available.
(7)
Measuring correlation between gravitation and traffic/transport intensity
In the physical law of gravitation, gravitation rises or decreases inversely proportional to the
distance. This single and clear correlation does not exist in transport science. Therefore a
gravitation model can only be applied, if the correlation between gravitation and traffic/transport
intensity can be measured correctly and with a sufficient empirical foundation:
In the context of the German Bundesverkehrswegeplanung (BVWP) widely empirical matrices of
traffic and transport flows have been collected and extrapolated between European regions
(completely covered: Central Europe and neighbouring countries in Northern, Western, Southern
and Eastern Europe). Combining these data (traffic/transport flows between regions = dependent
variables) with regional population/GDP and the Generalized Transport Costs (= independent
variables) well founded gravitation coefficients could be derived from regression analyses
(regression coefficients up to 0.97).
The important thing is: The traffic and transport flows are based on observation and thus represent
real traffic and transport interaction between regions. Correlated with socio-economic data of the
regions and the Generalized Transport Costs the long term dependency of traffic and transport
between the regions in term of travel time/travel costs resp. Generalized Transport Costs can be
measured and transferred to projects like the FBFL.
(8)
Application of the model for the FBFL
Because the methodical background of the FTC-model in the transport model which has been
developed and used for the BVWP, it was possible to apply the findings of the regression analyses
based on the BVWP traffic and transport flow data to the FBFL-context. Due to the fact, that the
FBFL will serve a border crossing, the gravitation coefficients valid for international traffic and
transport have been applied.
4
 TRU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 67: Analyse af trafikprognoserne på Femern Bælt forbindelsen, fra transportministeren
2105185_0005.png
To consider the individual situation of the study area the function as shown in the figure above has
been used in a factoral way:
traffic due to gravitation in the case with FBFL
divided by
traffic due to gravitation in the case without FBFL.
This factor has been applied to the traffic according to the FTC-study, in passenger traffic minus
"induced traffic" form the FTC-study to eliminate double counts.
(9)
Findings
Additionally to the demand effects, which have been calculated for the FBFL in the FTC-study,
there is a large potential for additional effects caused by "gravitation" representing "dynamic
effects" of the FBFL next to the redistribution of existing traffic from other routes and modes to the
FBFL. These additional effects would increase the FBFL traffic in terms of vehicles (cars, buses
and lorries) by another 18 % or 2.200 additional vehicles per day (related to 2030, see table below).
Differently from route- and mode-shifts these effects would develop gradually. We would expect a
number of around 2.500 vehicles per day ten years after opening of the FBFL caused by dynamic
effects.
Passengers/vehicles
in FTC study
(in 1000)
Additional
passengers/vehicles
in the study of
dynamic effects (in
1000)
309
85
1.226
1.620
41
772
3
35
810
Additional
passengers/vehicles
in % of the FTC-
study
Rail passengers
Bus passengers
Car passengers
Total passengers
Rail tons
Cars
Buses
Lorries
Total vehicles
Tab.:
1.083
1.352
9.573
12.009
9.464
3.767
36,5
634
4.437
28,5
6,3
12,8
13,5
0,4
20,5
8,2
5,5
18,3
Dynamic effects of the FBFL (yearly figures related to 2030)
5
 TRU, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 67: Analyse af trafikprognoserne på Femern Bælt forbindelsen, fra transportministeren
2105185_0006.png
These results show even that the FBFL opens big chances to develop the axis Öresund Region -
Femern
–
Hamburg to a nucleus of growth on the interface between Northern and Central Europe.
6