Miljø- og Fødevareudvalget 2019-20
MOF Alm.del Bilag 207
Offentligt
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STUDY SUMMARY
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It’s there for a reason:
Why Ministers must not exceed scientific
advice on fishing quota
Gri n Carpenter
Summary
New Economics Foundation
On December 16 and 17, EU fisheries ministers will set fishing quotas for the North Sea and Northeast Atlantic. This
meeting will largely determine whether the reform of the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy will succeed or fail in the
objective to end overfishing in EU waters.
While EU Ministers have put o action to end overfishing by 2020, there are countless positive reasons why reaching
the deadline should be embraced. The briefing
It’s
there for a reason: Why Ministers must not exceed
scientific advice on fishing quota
explains that ending overfishing brings environmental, social, and economic
benefits. And it is also the law. This document summarises the briefing’s arguments.
Environmental benefits: Abundant marine life in a more resilient ecosystem
For most EU commercial fish stocks, fishing pressure is managed through quota limits – a maximum quantity of fish that
can be caught. Research has demonstrated that if and when fishing quotas are set in accordance with scientific advice,
stock recovery follows.
There is a growing recognition that it is di cult to manage fish populations separately and instead a multispecies or
‘ecosystem-based approach’ should be employed. Studies using this approach show that for some populations to be
caught at their maximum yield, others must be caught below their maximum yield – meaning quotas set below the
scientific advice.
Fishing is not the only stressor in marine ecosystems. Increasingly, climate change is being cited as a major stressor as
fish populations shift poleward. Ending overfishing can help mitigate this problem by building resilience through larger
and more abundant marine life.
Rebuilding fish populations would end the ‘boom and bust’ of current management. With many fish populations still in a
fragile state of recovery, fishing at the limit of scientific advice can risk overfishing. This has led to the recent MSC
certification and subsequent removal for North Sea cod.
Socio-economic benefits: Larger catches from fewer trips
Often policies to protect the environment are contrasted with their financial costs. This is not the case for overexploited
renewable resources. Allowing fish populations to recover increases the abundance and thus a sustainable level of harvest
comes from a larger base (for example 10% of 100,000 tonnes instead of 20% from 20,000 tonnes). By protecting fish
populations, we can fish more in the future with more income for fishers and coastal communities.
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 MOF, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 207: Henvendelse af 9/11-19 fra Our Fish om dansk mandat ved AGRIFISH: Tiden er inde for bæredygtigt fiskeri i EU
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Fishing from more abundant fish populations also reduces costs, as abundant populations are easier to harvest (you can
haul the same amount of fish in a smaller area and in less time). These returns to fishing can occur as profits or alternatively
as jobs or wages depending on how the fleet is structured and labour policy. Measured in profits, studies have found that
the earlier MSY is achieved the better, finding that achieving MSY in 2020 instead of 2016 would already result in more than
31% of the potential operating profit being lost (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: Net present value of MSY pathways under the proportional cost assumption (2016-2035)
120
108,9
93,5
77,2
Cumulative profits (billion €)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Current
FMSY 2016
FMSY Incremential
MSY 2020
Source: Using the proportional costs assumption from Guillen, J. et al. (2016). Sustainability now or later? Estimating the benefits of pathways to maximum sustainable yield for
EU northeast Atlantic fisheries. Marine Policy 72: 40-47.
Figure 2 displays the proposed quota changes under the Commission quota proposal for the North Sea and Northeast
Atlantic (blue) beside the estimated quotas at a state of MSY (red) compared to 2019. It is clear that in the majority of cases
the MSY value is many times greater than the cases where there are reductions proposed (10.3 times greater, on average).
Importantly, these higher MSY values are recurring.
Figure 2: Proposed TAC changes and MSY potential
1500%
1300%
1100%
900%
700%
500%
300%
100%
-100%
2020 Change
MSY Change
Source: European Commission. (2019). Commission proposes fishing opportunities in the Atlantic and North Sea for 2020. Retrieved from:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_19_6151 and Froese, R. et al. (2016).
Exploitation and status of European stocks. Madrid: Oceana. Retrieved from:
https://eu.oceana.org/en/our-work/froese-report/overview
Note: Where stocks cover multiple TACs, conversions were made based on the current TAC proportions as in Guillen et al, 2016.
The meaning of law
Putting o action for so long that it becomes ever more 'costly' to comply creates a moral hazard – where excessive risks
are taken in the knowledge that the costs will be borne by someone else. If the landmark 2020 deadline isn't met, why would
any other policy in the Common Fisheries Policy be trusted? Or what about other EU policies?
It would be a disappointment and frustration to the millions of EU citizens who put their hopes in the CFP reform to come up
short in this objective. We are watching with great hope and expectation.
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