Klima-, Energi- og Forsyningsudvalget 2019-20
KEF Alm.del Bilag 144
Offentligt
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Annex 2. Trends and projections in Danish GHG
emissions and removals 1990-2040
Trends and projections in Danish GHG emissions and removals 1990-2040 with the
effects of existing national and EU policies and measures as of May 2019 (the WEM-
scenario) - by gas, by IPCC sectors, in the EU ETS, in EU non-ETS (ESD/ESR), the
LULUCF sector and different energy sectors.
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GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
CO2 emissions w ithout net CO2 from LULUCF
CO2 emissions w ith net CO2 from LULUCF
CH4 emissions w ithout CH4 from LULUCF
CH4 emissions w ith CH4 from LULUCF
N2O emissions w ithout N2O from LULUCF
N2O emissions w ith N2O from LULUCF
HFCs
PFCs
Unspecified mix of HFCs and PFCs
SF6
NF3
Total (without LULUCF)
Total (with LULUCF)
Total (w ithout LULUCF, w ith indirect CO2)
Total (with LULUCF, with indirect CO2 )
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025
CO2 equivalent (kt)
53558 61584 54279 51498 49169 35204 34795 31864
58275 64985 57664 55735 47940 38613 37545 34324
7596
7789
7965
7993
NO,NA
NO,NA
8022
8212
7228
7255
258
1
7871
8059
6970
6997
766
23
7629
7814
5503
5529
903
19
7308
7493
5210
5237
827
17
6822
7012
5226
5259
462
0
6885
7076
5450
5479
405
1
6277
6443
5301
5306
334
0
29063
31377
6376
6550
5192
5198
283
0
NO,NA
20
NO,NA
40933
43428
41109
43604
2030
26213
29528
6462
6644
5085
5091
191
0
NO,NA
21
NO,NA
37971
41475
38110
41614
2035
24993
27993
6432
6622
5074
5081
191
0
NO,NA
21
NO,NA
36710
39908
36831
40029
2040
23961
27434
6459
6657
5195
5203
191
0
NO,NA
21
NO,NA
35827
39507
35929
39609
CO2 equivalent (kt)
NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA
42
104
57
21
37
121
75
20
NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA
69161 77197 69966 65571 62568 47835 47612 43796
74099 80815 73566 70021 61551 51468 50582 46427
70291 78259 70790 66231 63038 48133 47892 44030
75229 81877 74390 70681 62020 51766 50863 46661
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES
1. Energy (w ith indirect CO2)
2. Industrial processes and product use
3. Agriculture
4. Land use, land-use change and forestry
5. Waste
6. Other
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025
CO2 equivalent (kt)
53517 61632 54348 51407 49564 34838 34110 30928
2344
2901
3699
2764
1911
1829
2010
2003
27951
2063
10411
2494
685
NO
2030
24888
2073
10477
3504
672
NO
2035
23611
2073
10503
3198
645
NO
2040
22461
2139
10773
3680
557
NO
CO2 equivalent (kt)
12668 12129 11256 10813 10405 10397 10642 10428
4938
1762
NO
3618
1598
NO
3600
1487
NO
4450
1246
NO
-1018
1159
NO
3632
1070
NO
2971
1131
NO
2630
672
NO
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
in EU ETS and non-ETS SECTOR CATEGORIES
EU ETS (CO2 emissions from stationary installations also included in the inventory)
[1990-2004: PROXY estimates]
EU ETS (CO2 emissions from domestic aviation also included in the inventory)
EU ETS (Total CO2 em issions in ETS also included in the inventory)
[1990-2004: PROXY estim ates]
Non-ETS GHG em issions, w ithout LULUCF, w ith indirect CO2
(2013-2020: ESD / 2021-2030: ESR) [1990-2004: PROXY estim ates]
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025
CO2 equivalent (kt)
29356 36237 29733 26476 25266 15796 15063 12144
251
246
194
177
179
130
137
140
10221
147
10368
30741
2030
8345
156
8500
29610
2035
8269
158
8428
28404
2040
8007
161
8167
27762
CO2 equivalent (kt)
29607 36483 29927 26653 25445 15926 15200 12284
40684 41776 40863 39578 37593 32208 32693 31746
GREENHOUSE GAS NET EMISSIONS and ACCOUNTING QUANTITIES
in the LULUCF SECTOR
LULUCF under the UNFCCC
(net em issions from "4. Land use, land-use change and forestry")
LULUCF accounting quantities (net credits if negative):
KP1(2008-2012), KP2(2013-2020), EU/LULUCF(2021-2030)
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025
CO2 equivalent (kt)
4938
NA
3618
NA
3600
NA
4450
NA
-1018
-1405
3632
-2106
2971
-2832
2630
-3322
2494
-1460
2030
3504
-1460
2035
3198
NE
2040
3680
NE
CO2 equivalent (kt)
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
in the different ENERGY SECTORS
1. Energy (w ith indirect CO2)
A. Fuel combustion (sectoral approach) (w ith indirect CO2)
1. Energy industries (w ith indirect CO2)
2. Manufacturing industries and construction
3. Transport
4. Other sectors
5. Other
B. Fugitive emissions from fuels
1. Solid fuels
2. Oil and natural gas and other emissions from energy production
C. CO2 transport and storage
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025
CO2 equivalent (kt)
53517 61632 54348 51407 49564 34838 34110 30928
53000 60932 53258 50531 48996 34447 33727 30617
27381 33620 26875 23830 24574 13179 11855
5431
5918
5927
5446
4419
3833
4025
9242
3744
27951
27601
6821
3672
13334
3466
309
350
NO
350
NO
2030
24888
24705
4904
3628
12750
3114
309
183
NO
183
NO
2035
23611
23441
4811
3532
11988
2800
309
170
NO
170
NO
2040
22461
22300
4453
3518
11272
2748
309
161
NO
161
NO
CO2 equivalent (kt)
10752 12075 12469 13586 13405 12722 13209 13368
9266
170
517
NO
517
NO
8996
323
699
NO
699
NO
7786
201
1090
NO
1090
NO
7290
379
877
NO
877
NO
6390
209
568
NO
568
NO
4515
198
391
NO
391
NO
4333
306
383
NO
383
NO
3954
309
311
NO
311
NO
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Annex 3. Natural gas price projections
2019-
MEUR/ktoe
Import price
Retail price
Central
power plant
309
322
289
247
245
251
257
263
270
276
283
289
294
301
307
313
319
324
334
337
341
343
346
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
289
303
270
228
226
232
238
244
251
257
264
270
276
282
288
294
300
306
315
318
321
324
327
Decentral CHP
plant/
heavy industry
350
363
330
284
283
281
288
294
302
310
316
324
330
337
344
351
356
362
371
375
378
381
384
Final
consumers
470
484
451
396
394
374
383
391
401
410
419
428
436
445
454
462
468
473
483
486
489
492
495
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Annex 4. Electricity and gas prices by energy,
network and taxes/levies for businesses and
households
BUSINESSES
Inclusive
levies
taxes
and
2017H2 (DKK/m3)
Gas price
Transmission
Distribution
Subscription
Naturgasafgift
Nox-tax
CO2-tax
Energy saving
contribution
Other tariffs
Total, excl. VAT
Band I
1,9161
0,0709
0,9518
0,1063
2,1880
0,0080
0,3890
0,2477
0,0108
5,89
Band II
1,9162
0,0793
0,9271
0,0196
2,1880
0,0080
0,3890
0,2366
0,0108
5,77
Band III
1,7153
0,0746
0,3749
0,0038
2,1880
0,0080
0,3890
0,0906
0,0108
4,85
Band IV
1,6332
0,0674
0,2567
0,0005
2,1880
0,0080
0,3890
0,0618
0,0058
4,61
BandV
1,5955
0,0572
0,2064
0,0001
2,1880
0,0080
0,3890
0,0469
0,0019
4,49
Refundable
taxes/levies subtracted
2017H2 (DKK/m3)
Gas price
Transmission
Distribution
Subscription
Naturgasafgift
Nox-tax
CO2-tax
Energy saving
contribution
Other tariffs
Total, excl. VAT
Band I
1,9161
0,0709
0,9518
0,0953
1,8131
0,0080
0,3890
0,2477
0,0108
5,50
Band II
1,9162
0,0793
0,9271
0,0097
1,2963
0,3812
0,0080
0,2366
0,0108
4,87
Band III
1,7153
0,0746
0,3749
0,0027
0,4483
0,3151
0,0080
0,0906
0,0108
3,04
Band IV
1,6332
0,0674
0,2567
0,0003
0,2979
0,0080
0,1634
0,0618
0,0058
2,49
Band V
1,5955
0,0572
0,2064
0,0001
0,2979
0,0080
0,1634
0,0469
0,0019
2,38
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Inclusive taxes and levies
Band I
Gas price
Transmission and distribution
Taxes
Total, excl. VAT
1,9161
1,1290
2,8435
5,8885
Band I
Gas price
Transmission and distribution
Taxes
Total, excl. VAT
HOUSEHOLDS
2017H2 (DKK/m3)
Gas price
Transmission
Distribution
Subscription
Naturgasafgift, kr/m3
Nox-tax
CO2-tax
Energy saving contribution
Other tariffs
Total, excl. VAT
Band I
2,6852
0,0892
0,9518
1,6764
2,1880
0,0080
0,3890
0,2477
0,0108
8,25
Band II
1,9572
0,0995
0,9518
0,4224
2,1880
0,0080
0,3890
0,2477
0,0108
6,27
Band III
2,1656
0,1000
0,9518
0,0595
2,1880
0,0080
0,3890
0,2477
0,0108
6,12
1,9161
1,1180
2,4686
5,5027
Band II
1,9162
1,0260
2,8324
5,7746
Band II
1,9162
1,0161
1,9329
4,8653
Band III
1,7153
0,4533
2,6864
4,8550
Band III
1,7153
0,4522
0,8728
3,0403
Band IV
1,6332
0,3245
2,6526
4,6103
Band IV
1,6332
0,3243
0,5369
2,4944
Band V
1,5955
0,2636
2,6338
4,4929
Band V
1,5955
0,2636
0,5181
2,3772
Refundable taxes/levies subtracted
Band I
Gas price
Transmission and distribution
Taxes
Total, excl. VAT
2,6852
2,7174
2,8435
8,2461
Band II
1,9572
1,4737
2,8435
6,2743
Band III
2,1656
1,1113
2,8435
6,1204
5
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Annex 5. Description of existing measures and the
modelling platform (Denmark’s energy and climate
model)
Existing policies and measures are described in the NECP regulation (art.2) as the
implemented and adopted policies and measures.
All the policies, which are part of the frozen policy are described as follows.
Energy Agreement of 29 June 2018 (Ministry of Climate, 2018) covers the period up
to and including 2024. However, since the last of the three offshore wind farms under
the agreement is not expected to be commissioned until 2030, the agreement can
be interpreted to affect the entire projection period. In addition to three new offshore
wind farms, the Energy Agreement ensures funding for new biogas production;
continued relaxation of electricity taxes; new technology-neutral tendering
procedures for photovoltaic solar modules, onshore wind and nearshore offshore
wind; as well as new energy saving efforts in place of the energy saving scheme
(energy saving efforts of energy companies), which runs until the end of 2020
(Danish Energy Agency, 2019d).
The new energy saving scheme includes subsidy pools for energy saving efforts by
the corporate sector as well as by households. Furthermore, the scheme includes a
campaign to raise awareness about how households can save energy. DECO19
moreover includes the effect of abolishing Annex 1 of the Danish Electricity Tax Act
as part of the Energy Agreement, which will allow more business and industry sectors
to seek refunds for electricity taxes. Finally, removal of the cogeneration requirement
and the fuel obligation in small-scale district heating areas under the Energy
Agreement, as well as the Danish Energy Agency's possibility to grant exemption
from the cogeneration requirement in large-scale district heating areas, are also
included. Removal of the cogeneration requirement, including removal of the
possibility to be exempted from this requirement, has implications for the expected
scope of the conversion of facilities from coal-based and natural-gas-based CHP
generation to production based on other energy supply technologies such as heat
pumps and biomass boilers.
The Energy Agreement earmarks a financial reserve for even more renewable
energy from 2025 - the so-called RE reserve. The effect of this element has not been
included in DECO19 because any realisation of the RE reserve must be based on a
period assessment of developments
without
realisation of the RE reserve.
Furthermore, the Energy Agreement's pool for the deployment of green transport has
yet to be realised as concrete initiatives and has therefore also not been included.
The Energy Agreement's relaxation of electricity taxes prolongs and expands current
relaxations agreed in connection with the Agreement on Business and
Entrepreneurial Initiatives of 12 November 2017 (Erhvervsministeriet, 2017). In the
energy area, this agreement is valid up to and including 2020.
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The PSO tariff, which is paid for over the electricity bill, is being phased out and will
be discontinued from year end 2021 (Energistyrelsen, 2018b).
An agreement on a temporary relaxation of the registration tax on electric vehicles
(Danish Ministry of Taxation, 2018) has been included as having an effect on sales
of cars up to 2022.
Earlier subsidy schemes for new offshore wind, new biomass-based CHP and new
biogas production will lapse during 2019 and will be replaced by the technology-
neutral tendering scheme. Existing facilities established under earlier subsidy
schemes will continue under existing terms and conditions. However, the 2018
amendment to the Promotion of Renewable Energy Act and to the Electricity Supply
Act stipulates a revised price supplement for biomass-based electricity generation
based on facility-specific depreciation in accordance with EU state aid rules.
Production-independent support for small-scale CHP production (the so-called basic
amount) and support for establishment of large electricity-driven heat pumps ended
at year end 2018 (Danish Energy Agency, 2018a).
The technology-neutral tendering procedure conducted in the period 2018-2019 has
been included with the effects achieved from this initiative. Upcoming technology-
neutral tendering procedures have been included as an element in the Energy
Agreement and have been distributed across technologies as appropriate.
Agreements funded by the Danish Finance Act 2019 (Finansministeriet, 2018) have
been included as having an effect on some of the emissions from agriculture; on
emissions of certain greenhouse gases from cooling systems; as well as on reduced
leakages from biogas plants from 2021.
EU product standards such as the Ecodesign Directive and the Energy Labelling
Directive, and standards for transport vehicles, have been included as having an
effect throughout the projection period with the restrictions and expansions already
decided by the EU.
In principle, the EU Waste Framework Directive will have effect throughout the entire
projection period. However, there is currently no basis for any new expectations
about the composition of waste or the calorific value, including the renewable energy
share of waste for incineration, just as the existing incineration capacity is assumed
to stay the same.
The Danish building regulations will continue, in which transitioning to building class
2020 will be optional, and the regulations will be current throughout the projection
period.
Other existing taxes and subsidies will continue to apply throughout the projection
period.
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Denmark’s Energy and Climate Model
All the projections are based on constant prices 2016, specific selection of
exogenous factors and the Denmark’s Energy and Climate Model. All modelling set-
up used is explained as follows:
Figure 1. Overall elements in the model platform with inputs on the left and outputs
on the right.
(Energistyrelsen, 2019a).
INPUTS include:
Projection of emissions based on, amongst other things, DECO’s
energy balance and on emissions from e.g. agriculture in collaboration with the
Danish Centre for Environment and Energy (DCE) at Aarhus University; projections
by the Danish Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Affairs and the
Interior of economic and demographic developments, business productivity and CO2
allowances; the International Energy Agency's (IEA's) projection of world market
prices of fossil fuels adapted to a Danish level; detailed plant data on Danish energy
plants, based, among other things, on the Danish Energy Agency's energy
production statistics and master data register; Statistics Denmark's input-output
matrices for exchanges between sectors; the Danish Energy Agency's technology
catalogues; and the projection of the electricity demand, energy production capacity
and interconnectors of 23 European countries, based on data from the European
Network of Transmission System Operators, ENTSO-E.
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OUTPUTS include:
(year-by-year and hour-by-hour up to 2030) energy
consumption by sector, by use and by technology; energy balances for supply
facilities and for district heating areas; greenhouse gas emissions; key indicators
such as shares of renewables in accordance with the requirements of the RE
Directive (Eurostat, 2018); electricity exchange and the electricity price for each of
the 15 European electricity market areas included in the electricity market model;
security of electricity supply; fiscal revenue lags; socioeconomic and corporate
financial performance; as well as developments in the energy intensities of
businesses.
THE MODEL PLATFORM INTEGRATES THE FOLLOWING SUB MODELS:
•
The summary model "Denmark's Energy and Climate Model",
which
integrates the two sector models mentioned below as well as results from the
DCE's emissions model such as to provide an overall projection result at system
level. Furthermore, the summary model forms the basis for the comparative
analyses of projection scenarios vis-a-vis impact assessments at system level.
RAMSES,
which models electricity and district heating supply. RAMSES is a
technical-economic model for operations optimisation, which is based on a
detailed description of all energy-producing facilities and district heating areas in
the Danish energy system as well as on an aggregated description of the
electricity production plants in the European electricity markets included in the
model, including interconnectors between these markets. RAMSES simulates
operations in the interlinked European energy system on an hourly basis.
RAMSES does not automatically take account of new investments. RAMSES
includes Denmark as well as 23 countries broken down by 15 European
electricity market areas. Trends in new production capacity are defined partly
exogenously based on specific knowledge as well as on capacity development
models, e.g. for wind power and solar PV, and partly based on a coupling to DH-
Invest, which is a new investment model for small-scale district heating areas.
IntERACT,
which models energy consumption by the corporate sector and
households. The model comprises two sub models: An economic model which
describes the macroeconomic correlations using a neoclassical, general
equilibrium model and a technical energy system model based on the IEA' s
TIMES model (IEA-ETSAP, 2018). The model describes fundamental energy-
technology, thermodynamic and physical relationships on a theoretical energy-
economics basis. The model uses output data from RAMSES on electricity prices
and district heating prices.
DH-INVEST,
which is an investment model for small-scale district heating areas.
This investment model simulates operations and investments for each district
heating area in order to determine investment scenarios that are optimal from
the perspective of corporate economics. The investment scenarios include
decommissioning of existing facility units. The investment model is integrated
•
•
•
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with RAMSES and uses a common assumptions basis, after which the calculated
changes in capacity for the individual district heating area are included in the
basis used by RAMSES in its modelling of the overall Danish electricity and
district heating system.
•
SISYFOS,
which simulates the capacity adequacy (security of supply) of the
electricity system. SISYFOS is a Monte Carlo simulation model which, based on
rolls of dice, simulates different situations with outages of power plants and/or
power lines in the electricity system. Using time series for electricity demand,
wind power, photovoltaic power, etc., the model identifies combinations of events
which can lead to capacity shortages. Loss-of-probability (LOLP) is calculated
and converted into number of minutes' capacity shortage per year. Furthermore,
expected unserved energy (EUE) is calculated using a methodology developed
by Energinet, along with the associated average number of outage minutes.
FREM,
which models energy consumption in the transport sector. Amongst other
things, FREM is based on input from the Danish Transport, Construction and
Housing Authority, which uses the National Transport Model (LTM) (Technical
University of Denmark, 2018) to describe developments in road traffic and
energy consumption by railways. FREM projects road transport based on
projections for growth in transport volume, developments in the energy efficiency
of vehicles by 44 vehicle categories and survival rates, journeys as a function of
the age of vehicles, as well as choice of vehicle. FREM projects energy
consumption in air transport based on developments in GDP and population
numbers, as well as expected developments in energy efficiency in aviation.
The PSO model,
which is used to calculate expected future expenditure on
subsidies for electricity production. The model calculates expenses for offshore
wind, onshore wind, biogas, photovoltaics, CHP production and more. The
results are used to determine the PSO tariff and in connection with fiscal
budgeting. The model uses output data from RAMSES on electricity prices,
electricity consumption and electricity production. The model also models
relevant technology subsidy schemes.
Technology Deployment Models
for offshore wind, onshore wind, solar PV and
biogas use, which model the profitability of technology investments in terms of
corporate finances against the profitability requirements of relevant investors,
which means the models model the most probable capacity deployment scenario
against the current investment and operating conditions.
•
•
•
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Annex 6. Carbon ETS price. Revised carbon ETS
price in September 2019
Carbon
price
revised
September
2019
22,5
15,5
7,7
6,1
27,6
28,4
29,2
30,1
31,0
31,9
32,9
33,9
34,9
35,9
37,0
42,8
49,6
Year
2005
2010
2015
2017
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2035
2040
Carbon
ETS price
DECO2019
22,5
15,5
7,7
6,1
16,1
16,6
17,2
17,9
18,6
19,4
20,3
21,3
22,4
23,5
24,8
32,0
41,4
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Annex 7. Projections of air pollutants
Table 1. The main results of the “with measures” air pollutants projection from March 2019.
 KEF, Alm.del - 2019-20 - Bilag 144: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks nationale energi- og klimaplan
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Table 2. The main results of the “with additional measures” air pollutants projection from March 2019.
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