Transport-, Bygnings- og Boligudvalget 2018-19 (1. samling)
B 7 Bilag 3
Offentligt
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NOTAT
Til
Transport-, Bygnings- og Boligministeriet
Vedr.
Forskningsprojekt om aldersgrænsen for erhvervelse af kørekort til stor
knallert og lille motorcykel.
Fra
Mette Møller, Kira H. Janstrup, Luca Furlanetto
DTU Management Engineering
December 2018
Mopeds - Risk of serious injury or death
Delnotat III
Danmarks Tekniske Universitet
Department of Management Engineering
DTU Management Engineering
Diplomvej
Bygning 372
2800 Kgs. Lyngby
Tlf.
Fax
45 25 65 37
45 93 34 35
[email protected]
www.man.dtu.dk
 B 7 - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 3: DTU-rapport om aldersgrænsen for erhvervelse af kørekort til stor knallert og lille motorcykel
Table of Contents
1
2
Objective
........................................................................................................................................... 3
Methodology
..................................................................................................................................... 3
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
3
4
Exposure
................................................................................................................................... 3
Accidents
.................................................................................................................................. 3
Spatial subdivision of the country
................................................................................................ 4
Type of mopeds
......................................................................................................................... 5
Underreporting...................................................................................................................................
6
Results
.............................................................................................................................................. 6
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
Moped 30 and Moped 45
............................................................................................................ 7
Comparison between urban and rural areas
................................................................................... 9
Moped 30
................................................................................................................................ 10
Moped 30 young users
.............................................................................................................. 11
Moped 45
................................................................................................................................ 12
Comparison between moped 30 and moped 45
–
Own risk
.......................................................... 13
Comparison between moped 30 and moped 45
–
Total risk
.......................................................... 14
Risk of serious accident for young cyclist
................................................................................... 15
5
Conclusion
...................................................................................................................................... 16
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1
Objective
The current report presents an analysis of the risk of serious injury or death in Denmark regarding
moped 30 and moped 45. The analysis regards the period 2007 - 2017.
2
Methodology
The risk of serious injury or death has been calculated as a ratio between the number of accidents, in
which at least one moped was involved, and the exposure, which refers to the total mileage driven.
The accident observations have been obtained through Vejman, a road management system operated
by Vejdirektoratets (Danish Road Directorate). The exposure is based on data from the
Transportvaneundersøgelsen (The Danish National Travel Survey).
2.1
Exposure
The exposure, or the total kilometres driven, is based on data from the Transportvaneundersøgelsen
(TU), The Danish National Travel Survey. It consists of an interview survey, which serves to document
the travel behaviour of the Danish population. Among other things, it indicates the trip length made in
one day by a moped user. Based on this data, the total km driven between 2007-2017 in each of the
six macro areas has been calculated (further details in later sections).
2.2
Accidents
The accident observations state the location, age of the driver, and the type of injury sustained in the
accident. This was used to create the following two categories:
Total risk of serious accident:
includes accidents that have caused death or serious injury to
any of the persons involved.
Own risk of serious accident:
includes accidents that have caused death or serious injury to
the moped driver.
Notice that an accident involving two mopeds has
been counted twice: first, two are the number of
mopeds involved; second, if the accident have caused a serious injury to one of the drivers and not to
the other, the accident can be counted or not in own category depending on the point of view.
The two types of risk of accident have been calculated as follows:
Own risk of accident
=
Number of severe or fatal accidents for mopeds driver
Exposure
Intuitively, this calculation represents how dangerous driving a moped is for the moped driver.
����otal
risk of accident =
Number of mopeds related severe or fatal accidents
Exposure
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This calculation represents how dangerous driving a moped is not only for the driver him/herself but
for all road users. Given that only severe and fatal accident are considered, the risk of accident can be
interpreted as risk of serious injury or death.
2.3
Spatial subdivision of the country
Since it is assumed that geographical and social contexts may influence the risk, it was decided to
divide the country into macro areas sharing the same characteristics. The data from The Danish
National Travel Survey also indicates the municipality crossed by each journey. This information can
be aggregated into groups of municipalities but cannot be explored further (for example, NTM zones
are not available). The spatial subdivision of the country has been based on municipality as well. First,
the territory is distinguished between urban and rural areas based on population city size. The
municipalities
of the nine largest cities have been identified as urban area, while the rest of the country
has
been identified as rural area. However, it has been noticed that some
of municipalities nearly only
contain highly populated areas, while other municipalities also contain less populated areas. Two
different categories were therefore created:
The three largest cities which nearly only contain highly populated areas: Copenhagen,
Odense, and Aarhus
Larger cities which also contain less populated areas: Esbjerg, Kolding, Vejle, Horsens,
Randers, and Aalborg
Given that Copenhagen contains many different municipalities, an aggregation of these must be
considered in the category. Instead of selecting an arbitrary aggregation of the municipalities, the
NUTS (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) area, named by Byen København, which well
contains the entire urban area of the capital, was chosen. The idea of considering all the remaining
areas as one unique rural macro area has been rejected due to a previous analysis (not included here
for the sake of simplicity), which pointed out a higher number of km driven in Jutland in comparison
with Zealand. For this reason, and in order to capture the possible social differences, the following
categories have been created:
Countryside North Zealand and Bornholm
Countryside South and West Zealand
Countryside North and West Jutland
Countryside Funen, South and East Jutland
Notice that the exact borders between the last four categories are based on the NUTS areas. It follows
a map representing all the six created macro areas.
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Figure 1 Overview of the six macro areas used in the analysis
2.4
Type of mopeds
Two types of mopeds are considered in the current analysis: Mopeds 30 and Mopeds 45. The
maximum speed of a Moped 30 is 30 km/h and the minimum age of the users is 15 years old. The
maximum speed of a Moped 45 is 45 km/h and the minimum age of the users is 18 years old.
However, mopeds that have been adjusted (illegally) in order to drive faster are widespread.
We calculate the risk of serious injury or death with respect to the type of moped and the age of the
user in order to create the following categories:
Moped 30 and 45
Moped 30
Moped 30 young users (15-17 years old)
Moped 45
Due to an insufficient number of observations, we decided to exclude the category Mopeds 45 young
users from the statistical analysis.
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3
Underreporting
According to Janstrup et al (2016)
1
a relevant proportion of severe accidents,
i.e.
accidents that have
caused serious injury, are not reported to the police. This is particularly relevant for the current
analysis, given that the considered accident data is provided by the police. Intuitively, we should
multiply the number of severe accidents by the under-reporting rate in order to obtain a better
approximation of the reality. Table 1 shows the
Police catch rate
by means of transport. It is important
to be aware that the numbers are based on data from Funen 2003-2007. The numbers may have
changed.
Table 1: Underreporting rates
Transport Mode
Pedestrian
Bicycle
Moped
Motorcycle
Car
Bus
Other
Police Catch Rate (%)
56
14
45,6
17,6
68,2
13
77,6
4
Results
The results are divided into categories based on moped type and user age. The risk of severe injury or
death
per million km driven and the 95% Confidence Interval
is shown each time for both the
Own risk
of serious accident
and the
Total risk of serious accident.
The results are shown both in charts and in
tables. The tables show the results numerically, while the charts aim to visualize the risk of seriour
injury or death. Notice that the tables show three parameters:
Num. acc.
Which is the yearly average
number of accidents,
Rate
which is the risk of serious injury or death, and
C.I.
which
the confidence
interval.
1
Janstrup, K.H., Kaplan, S., Hels, T., Lauritsen, J., Prato, C. (2016). Understanding traffic crash under-reporting: Linking police
and medical records to individual and crash characteristics, Traffic Injury Prevention, 17, 6, 580-584.
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4.1
Moped 30 and Moped 45
4
Fatal and Severe accidents / Millions of km
3
2
1
0
The three Larger cities N Zealand, S-W Zealand N-W Jutland S-E Jutland,
largest cities
Bornholm
Funen
Own risk
Total risk
Figure 2: Risk of serious injury or death, mopeds 30 and 45.
Table 2: Risk of serious injury or death, mopeds 30 and 45
Exposure
Geography
(Million Km)
The three largest cities
Larger cities
N Zealand, Bornholm
S-W Zealand
N-W Jutland
S-E Jutland, Funen
27,8
26,1
19,2
26,2
36,8
48,4
Num. acc.
68
53
28
43
67
85
Rate
2,5
2,0
1,4
1,7
1,8
1,8
C.I.
[1,9 - 3,1]
[1,5 - 2,6]
[1 - 1,9]
[1,2 - 2,1]
[1,5 - 2,2]
[1,5 - 2,1]
Num. acc.
87
61
33
50
77
97
Rate
3,1
2,3
1,7
1,9
2,1
2,0
C.I.
[2,4 - 3,9]
[1,7 - 3]
[1,2 - 2,3]
[1,4 - 2,4]
[1,7 - 2,5]
[1,6 - 2,3]
Own risk of serious accident
Total risk of serious accident
Figure 2 and Table 2 show the combined risk of serious injury or death for moped 30 and moped 45.
What can be noticed from table 2 is that the general risk of serious injury or death is slightly higher in
the big cities compared with the countryside. In the following section, we present a comparative
analysis about the risk of serious injury or death focused on urban and rural area.
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Reasonably, the
total risk
is higher than the
own risk
because each accident in the own category is
also in the total one but not the opposite. The difference therefore represents the accidents that have
caused serious injury or death, not to the moped driver, but to the other subject involved, which is
likely a pedestrian or a cyclist. This explains why the own and the total risk is higher for
The three
largest cities
than for the other areas. Cities are characterized by having a higher number of
pedestrians and cyclists compared to the countryside.
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4.2
Comparison between urban and rural areas
The previous section identified a difference between cities and countryside. In order to clarify this two
new categories were created and are compared urban area and rural area. The
Urban area
includes:
The three largest cities
and
Larger cities;
while the category
Rural area
includes the remaining four
macro areas.
4
Fatal and Severe accidents / Millions of km
3
2
1
0
Own risk
Urban area
Rural area
Total risk
Figure 3: A comparison between urban and rural areas with regard to own risk and total risk.
Table 3: A comparison between urban and rural area
Exposure
Geography
(Million Km)
Urban area
Rural area
53,9
130,6
Num. acc.
121
224
Rate
2,3
1,7
C.I.
[1,8 - 2,7]
[1,5 - 1,9]
Num. acc.
148
256
Rate
2,7
2,0
C.I.
[2,3 - 3,2]
[1,8 - 2,2]
Own risk of serious accident
Total risk of serious accident
Figure 3 and Table 3 compare the own risk and total risk in rural and urban areas. Results indicate
that the risk of serious injury or death is higher in urban areas than in rural areas for own as well as
total risk.
A possible explanation could be that mopeds are less common in urban areas. Indeed the km driven
per person in urban area are 0,4, while it is 13 in rural areas. Therefore, it is reasonable to think that
other road users in the countryside (such as car driver, truck drivers
etc.)
are more aware of the
mopeds, while mopeds might be less expected in the cities. Other explanations include that moped
riders are easily overlooked and their speed may be underestimated by other road users.
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4.3
Moped 30
In this section we focus on the risk of serious injury or death for moped 30 only.
6
Fatal and Severe accidents / Millions of km
5
4
3
2
1
0
The three Larger cities N Zealand, S-W Zealand N-W Jutland S-E Jutland,
largest cities
Bornholm
Funen
Own risk
Total risk
Figure 4: Risk of serious injury or death for moped 30.
Table 4: Risk of serious injury or death moped 30
Exposure
Geography / macro areas
(Million Km)
The three largest cities
Larger cities
N Zealand, Bornholm
S-W Zealand
N-W Jutland
S-E Jutland, Funen
18,1
17,5
10,6
11,5
22,9
29,5
Num. acc.
58
47
24
38
61
74
Rate
3,2
2,7
2,3
3,3
2,7
2,5
C.I.
[2,3 - 4,1]
[1,8 - 3,6]
[1,6 - 2,9]
[2 - 4,5]
[2,1 - 3,3]
[2 - 3]
Num. acc.
74
54
29
43
70
85
Rate
4,1
3,1
2,7
3,8
3,0
2,9
C.I.
[2,9 - 5,3]
[2,1 - 4,1]
[2 - 3,5]
[2,4 - 5,2]
[2,4 - 3,7]
[2,2 - 3,5]
Own risk of serious accident
Total risk of serious accident
Figure 4 and Table 4 show that
The three largest cities
together with
S-W Zealand
have the highest
risk of serious injury or death while,
N-Zealand
has the lowest. The reason for the difference between
urban and rural areas might be as mentioned in the previous subsection.
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4.4
Moped 30 young users
We now look specifically on the risk of serious injury or death for young (15-17 years old) moped users
(Figure 4 and Table 4). The highest risk is identified in the three largest cities. Given that the analyzed
population is smaller than before, the confidence interval is bigger.
Fatal and Severe accidents / Millions of km
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
The three Larger cities N Zealand, S-W Zealand N-W Jutland S-E Jutland,
largest cities
Bornholm
Funen
Own risk
Total risk
Figure 4: Risk of serious injury or death for moped 30 young users (15-17 years old).
Table 5: Risk of serious injury or death mopeds 30 young users (15-17) years old
Exposure
Geography / macro areas
(Million Km)
The three largest cities
Larger cities
N-Zealand, Bornholm
S-W Zealand
N-W Jutland
S-E Jutland, Funen
3,4
8,2
3,6
5,3
8,5
12,5
Num. acc.
13
13
8
11
18
21
Rate
3,8
1,6
2,2
2,1
2,1
1,7
C.I.
[1,4 - 6,3]
[0,6 - 2,6]
[1 - 3,3]
[0,5 - 3,6]
[1,4 - 2,9]
[1,1 - 2,3]
Num. acc.
18
16
10
13
22
26
Rate
5,1
2,0
2,8
2,5
2,6
2,1
C.I.
[1,9 - 8,4]
[0,7 - 3,3]
[1,3 - 4,3]
[0,6 - 4,3]
[1,7 - 3,5]
[1,4 - 2,9]
Own risk of serious accident
Total risk of serious accident
Based on the results of the analysis, it can be stated that the risk for young moped drivers is not
higher than for other ages. There is a higher risk of serious injury or death in
The three largest cities
and a lower risk in the remaining categories. However, due to
the large confidence interval
iit is not
possible to draw any conclusion on the small difference.
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4.5
Moped 45
We now look at the risk of serious injury or death for moped 45 (Figure 6 and Table 6).
1,6
Fatal and Severe accidents / Millions of km
1,2
0,8
0,4
0,0
The three Larger cities N Zealand, S-W Zealand N-W Jutland S-E Jutland,
largest cities
Bornholm
Funen
Own risk
Total risk
Figure 5: Risk of serious injury or death, moped 45
Table 6: Risk of serious injury or death, moped 45
Exposure
Geography
(Million Km)
The three largest cities
Larger cities
N Zealand, Bornholm
S-W Zealand
N-W Jutland
S-E Jutland, Funen
9,6
8,6
8,6
14,7
13,9
18,9
Num. acc.
11
6
4
6
6
11
Rate
1,1
0,7
0,4
0,4
0,4
0,6
C.I.
[0,7 - 1,5]
[0,4 - 1]
[0,1 - 0,7]
[0,2 - 0,6]
[0,3 - 0,6]
[0,4 - 0,8]
Num. acc.
12
7
4
6
7
12
Rate
1,3
0,8
0,5
0,4
0,5
0,6
C.I.
[0,9 - 1,7]
[0,5 - 1,2]
[0,1 - 0,9]
[0,2 - 0,6]
[0,4 - 0,7]
[0,5 - 0,8]
Own risk of serious accident
Total risk of serious accident
As for moped 30, the risk of serious injury or death is slightly higher in urban areas compared with the
countryside for both types of risks of accident. In addition, it can be seen that the risk of serious injury
or death for moped 45 is lower than the risk for moped 30. Due to this, the following presents a
comparison of the two.
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4.6
Comparison between moped 30 and moped 45
–
Own risk
5
Fatal and Severe accidents / Millions of km
4
3
2
1
0
The three Larger cities N Zealand, S-W Zealand N-W Jutland S-E Jutland,
largest cities
Bornholm
Funen
Mopeds 30
Mopeds 45
Figure 7: Comparison of the own risk of serious injury or death between moped 30 and moped 45.
Table 7: Comparison of the own risk of serious injury or death between moped 30 and moped 45
Mopeds 30
Geography
Num. acc.
The three largest cities
Larger cities
N Zealand, Bornholm
S-W Zealand
N-W Jutland
S-E Jutland, Funen
58
47
24
38
61
74
Rate
3,2
2,7
2,3
3,3
2,7
2,5
C.I.
[2,3 - 4,1]
[1,8 - 3,6]
[1,6 - 2,9]
[2 - 4,5]
[2,1 - 3,3]
[2 - 3]
Num. acc.
11
6
4
6
6
11
Rate
1,1
0,7
0,4
0,4
0,4
0,6
C.I.
[0,7 - 1,5]
[0,4 - 1]
[0,1 - 0,7]
[0,2 - 0,6]
[0,3 - 0,6]
[0,4 - 0,8]
Mopeds 45
Figure 7 and Table 7 highlights the higher risk of serious injury or death for moped 30 compared with
moped 45, and given that the maximum speed of moped 30 is lower than moped 45, the result is
somewhat surprising.
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4.7
Comparison between moped 30 and moped 45
–
Total risk
6
Fatal and Severe accidents / Millions of km
5
4
3
2
1
0
The three Larger cities N Zealand, S-W Zealand N-W Jutland S-E Jutland,
largest cities
Bornholm
Funen
Mopeds 30
Mopeds 45
Figure 7: Comparison of the total risk of serious injury or death between moped 30 and moped 45.
Table 8: Comparison of the total risk of serious injury or death between moped 30 and moped 45.
Mopeds 30
Geography
Num. acc.
The three largest cities
Larger cities
N Zealand, Bornholm
S-W Zealand
N-W Jutland
S-E Jutland, Funen
74
54
29
43
70
85
Rate
4,1
3,1
2,7
3,8
3,0
2,9
C.I.
[2,9 - 5,3]
[2,1 - 4,1]
[2 - 3,5]
[2,4 - 5,2]
[2,4 - 3,7]
[2,2 - 3,5]
Num. acc.
12
7
4
6
7
12
Rate
1,3
0,8
0,5
0,4
0,5
0,6
C.I.
[0,9 - 1,7]
[0,5 - 1,2]
[0,1 - 0,9]
[0,2 - 0,6]
[0,4 - 0,7]
[0,5 - 0,8]
Mopeds 45
Once again, the risk of serious injury or death is higher for moped 30 than for moped 45.
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4.8
Risk of serious accident for young cyclist
0,3
Fatal and Severe accidents / Millions of km
0,2
0,1
0,0
The three Larger cities N Zealand, S-W Zealand N-W Jutland S-E Jutland,
largest cities
Bornholm
Funen
Own Risk
Total risk
Figure 8: Risk of serious injury or death for young cyclists.
Table 9: Risk of serious injury or death for young cyclists.
Exposure
Geography
(Million Km)
The three largest cities
Larger cities
N Zealand, Bornholm
S-W Zealand
N-W Jutland
S-E Jutland, Funen
52,6
17,7
20,8
14,4
19,8
28,3
Num. acc.
7
3
4
3
4
6
Rate
0,13
0,16
0,19
0,20
0,19
0,20
C.I.
[0,12 - 0,14]
[0,15 - 0,18]
[0,17 - 0,2]
[0,17 - 0,22]
[0,18 - 0,21]
[0,18 - 0,22]
Num. acc.
9
3
5
3
5
6
Rate
0,16
0,19
0,22
0,24
0,26
0,21
C.I.
[0,15 - 0,17]
[0,17 - 0,21]
[0,2 - 0,23]
[0,21 - 0,27]
[0,24 - 0,28]
[0,19 - 0,23]
Own risk of serious accident
Total risk of serious accident
The risk of serious accident for bicycles appears different from mopeds given that the risk is lower for
cyclists in the city compared with the rural areas. It is also worth noting that the risk of serious injury or
death for young cyclists on average is ten times smaller than for drivers of moped 30. With regard to
cyclists, it is important to remember that the level of underreporting is very high for cyclist accidents.
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5
Conclusion
Based on data from the Danish National travel Survey and the police registered road traffic accidents
the risk of serious injury or death has been calculated for moped 30, moped 45, moped 30 and 45
combined, and bicycle.
With regard to moped 30 and 45 results show that the risk of serious injury or death is higher in urban
areas than in rural areas. Results also indicate that the risk of young moped riders is not higher than
the risk of the general population.
Further, results show that the risk related to moped 45 is lower than the risk related to moped 30.
Unlike the risk identified in relation to mopeds, the risk of serious injury or death for young cyclists is
smaller in urban areas, and 10 times smaller than the risk of moped 30.
16