Transport-, Bygnings- og Boligudvalget 2018-19 (1. samling)
B 7 Bilag 3
Offentligt
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Notat
Til
Transport-, Bygnings- og Boligministeriet
Vedr.
Forskningsprojekt om aldersgrænsen for erhvervelse af kørekort til stor
knallert og lille motorcykel.
Fra
Mette Møller, Kira H. Janstrup, Luca Furlanetto
DTU Management Engineering
December 2018
Moped use
–
fact sheet
Delnotat II
Danmarks Tekniske Universitet
Department of Management Engineering
Technology Innovation Management
Diplomvej
Bygning 372
2800 Kgs. Lyngby
Tlf.
Fax
45 25 65 37
45 93 34 35
[email protected]
www.man.dtu.dk
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Table of Contents
1
2
Objective
........................................................................................................................................... 3
Methodology
..................................................................................................................................... 3
2.1
3
Example of confidence interval
................................................................................................... 3
Results
.............................................................................................................................................. 5
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.10
3.11
Share of km driven among all the means of transport
.................................................................... 5
Macro Areas
.............................................................................................................................. 8
Trip share by travel time
........................................................................................................... 10
Trip share by trip length
............................................................................................................ 12
Average trip length
................................................................................................................... 13
Average trip duration
................................................................................................................ 14
Variation over the years
............................................................................................................ 15
User sex
.................................................................................................................................. 16
Trip purpose
............................................................................................................................ 17
Seasonality
.............................................................................................................................. 19
Public transport availability
....................................................................................................... 20
4
5
Conclusion
...................................................................................................................................... 21
Appendix
......................................................................................................................................... 22
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1
Objective
The purpose of this fact sheet is to provide an overview of selected aspects regarding moped use and
moped users in Denmark with regard to the period from 2013 to 2018.
It is commonly thought that mopeds are a means of transport used primarily by young people.
However, based on the current analysis it appears that the usage of mopeds also applies to middle-
aged men who are more likely, not to hold a driver license. Additionally, the usage of mopeds is not
just an urban phenomenon but also regards the countryside.
2
Methodology
The data utilized in the current analysis was obtained from The Danish National Travel Survey, which
consists of an interview survey that documents the travel behaviour of the Danish population between
the ages of 10 and 84 years
1
. The number of responses regarding moped users constitutes 578 out of
a total of 159.462 responses. Since this work aims to analyse the current usage of mopeds, we only
examine
data from the last five years
(November 2013 to October 2018). Considering more years
could affect the representation of the current state; while, considering less years would increase the
uncertainty of the results. Notice that the results are presented without any indication of the confidence
interval and the reader must be aware of the existence of an implicit uncertainty. However, we tested
the level of uncertainty in some instances and the results are shown in subsection 1.1.
We include two types of mopeds in the analysis: moped 30 and moped 45. The maximum speed of
the first one is 30 km/h and the minimum
user age is 15 years, while, the maximum speed of the
second one is 45 km/h and the minimum user age is 18 years. In the analysis we do not distinguish
between mopeds 30 and 45; but we include both in all analysis. This is done to ensure enough data.
We evaluate the usage of mopeds by either calculating the share of the total km driven or the average
trip length for particular categories. These categories are based on geographical usage, temporal
usage, user age and user characteristics. Moreover, we divide all the results into two categories:
urban area and rural area, based on population city size. The category:
urban area
includes the
municipalities of the nine largest cities in Denmark: Copenhagen, Odense, Aarhus, Esbjerg, Kolding,
Vejle, Horsens, Randers and Aalborg. While, the rest of the country is considered
rural area.
2.1
Example of confidence interval
The purpose of this section is to give an idea of the size of the uncertainty; therefore, any kind of
comment or explanation of the results presented is missing.
However, the first example can be found
in section 2.2, the second in section 2.6.
The two examples presented in this chapter are based on data collected from 2013 to 2017; this is
because
the calculation of the confidence interval for the data collected
during the 2018 is not
currently available. In this report, we decided to also include 2018 because The Danish National
Travel Survey has collected a particular amount of responds from moped users during the last year.
1
In 2016 it was expanded to include persons as young as 6 years old.
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Given that the size of the confidence
interval also depends on the population size, it can be assumed
that the confidence interval related
to the rest of the report is not wider than the one shown here.
The
first
example regards the share of the total km driven in six macro areas of Denmark. The macro
areas are explained in detail in section 3.2. Figure 1 and table 1 below include information on the 95%
confidence intervall.
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
The three
largest cities
Larger cities
N Zealand,
Bornholm
S-W Zealand
N-W Jutland
S-E Jutland,
Funen
Figure 1: Share of the total km driven by macro area.
Table 1: Share of total km driven by macro area
Exposure
Millions of km
The three largest cities
Other large cities
N Zealand, Bornholm
S-W Zealand
N-W Jutland
S-E Jutland, Funen
11,0
11,7
5,8
13,5
12,9
18,6
Confidence Interval
[6,1 - 15,9]
[7 - 16,4]
[2,7 - 9]
[7,3 - 19,7]
[7,3 - 18,4]
[12,4 - 24,9]
Share of km driven
Proportion
15,0%
15,9%
7,9%
18,3%
17,5%
25,4%
Confidence Interval
[8,3% - 21,7%]
[9,5% - 22,3%]
[3,7% - 12,2%]
[9,9% - 26,7%]
[9,9% - 25%]
[16,9% - 33,8%]
Macro Area
Similarly, the second example (figure 2, table 2) regard the km share by trip purpose and also include
information on the 95% confidence interval.
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60%
40%
20%
0%
Workplace
Leisure time
Urban area
Errand
Educational
institution
Rural area
Business
Figure 2: Share of total km driven by trip purpose.
Table 2: Share of total km driven by trip purpose.
Trip Purpose
Workplace
Urban
Share
Confidence interval
[22,8% - 60,7%]
[11,1% - 43,6%]
[2,1% - 11,3%]
[10,7% - 33,5%]
[-0,5% - 4,5%]
Share
35,5%
12,8%
12,2%
30,9%
8,6%
Rural
Confidence interval
[24,3% - 46,7%]
[6,5% - 19,2%]
[6,9% - 17,5%]
[19,7% - 42%]
[-0,3% - 17,6%]
41,8%
Leisure time
27,4%
Errand
6,7%
Educational institution
22,1%
Business
2,0%
3
3.1
Results
Share of km driven among all the means of transport
We compare the use of modes with the use of other modes. The results are divided into groups based
on user age and on the possession of a driving license. Notice that the category
All the population
includes all persons from 10 to 84 years old while the categories
Yes driving licence and No driving
licence
not only include persons from 18 to 84, but from 2017, also the 17 year olds. The category
named
Car
includes not only car drivers but also car passengers.
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80%
70%
60%
50%
56,5%
70,2%
90%
83,4%
100%
40,5%
0,2%
3,6%
5,1%
1,2%
5,0%
6,6%
2,0%
95,3%
10%
0%
All the Population
[10-84]
Young [15-17]
Young [18-24]
No driving licence Yes driving licence
[18-84]
[18-84]
Bicycle
Car
Mopeds
Pedestrian
Public Transport
Figure 3: Share of the total km driven by all the means of transport in urban area
93,3%
Rural Area
88,5%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
19,4%
40%
30%
67,5%
69,2%
0,1%
2,1%
6,8%
1,9%
4,5%
2,4%
0,2%
1,8%
2,2%
2,4%
10%
0%
All the Population
[10-84]
Young [15-17]
Young [18-24]
No driving licence Yes driving licence
[18-84]
[18-84]
Bicycle
Car
Mopeds
Pedestrian
Public Transport
Figure 4: Share of total km driven by all the means of transport in rural areas
0,1%
1,5%
1,1%
6
20%
2,0%
6,6%
15,6%
6,7%
6,5%
0,1%
3,0%
3,3%
20%
0,2%
5,3%
12,7%
12,2%
7,7%
11,6%
30%
20,8%
40%
0,7%
12,5%
25,5%
25,1%
87,0%
Urban Area
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As can be seen from Figure 3 and table 3 the share of the total number of km driven by mopeds in
Denmark is very low, compared to the other means of transport. This indicates that, a moped is not a
commonly used mode of transportation. It can be noticed, that the share of km driven by mopeds
differs across age groups and among people with and without a driving licence. This indicates that the
use of the moped differs between different subgroups of people, and that some subgroups use the
moped more than others do. In order to make this comparison easier, the values of moped shares are
extrapolated and presented in Figure 5.
2,0%
1,5%
1,0%
0,5%
0,0%
All the Population
[10-84]
Young [15-17]
Young [18-24]
No driving licence Yes driving licence
[18-84]
[18-84]
Urban area
Rural area
Figure 5: The moped share of the total km driven in subgroups of the population.
From figure 5 it can be noticed that the two highest moped shares are found among persons who are
not allowed to drive a car alone:
People who do not have a driving license
and
young persons aged 15
to 17.
This leaves the impression that mopeds are more likely to be used as an alternative to public
transport or bikes when cars are not accessible particularly in rural areas. Further studies are needed
to clarify this, but it may be related to a lower availability of public transport and bicycle infrastructure
in rural areas. Section 3.12 presents an analysis of the availability of public transport in Denmark.
In order to investigate further, the possible correlation between the possession of a driving license and
moped use, we calculate the number of moped users in possession of a driving license, and compare
the results with the national average. The category
under 18
intends to represent the people who are
not entitled to hold a driving license; thus, starting from 2017, the 17 year olds are no longer included
in that category. Therefore, the other categories include people from 18 to 84 years of age, before
2017 and from 17 to 84 years onwards.
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80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Under 18
All the Population [10-84]
Yes
Never had
Has had
Moped user - Urban area
Moped user - Rural area
Figure 6: A Comparison between all persons aged 10–84 and moped users based on driving license.status.
Generally, the results in Figure 6 show, that moped users are more likely not to have a driving license
than the average person is. Noteworthy, 3 out of 10 adult moped users do not have a driving license,
although one of them used to.
3.2
Macro Areas
In order to investigate the geographical usage of mopeds, Denmark was divided into six macro areas
2
.
These macro areas are:
The three largest cities: Copenhagen, Odense, and Aarhus
Larger cities: Esbjerg, Kolding, Vejle, Horsens, Randers, and Aalborg
Countryside North Zealand and Bornholm
Countryside South and West Zealand
Countryside North and West Jutland
Countryside Funen, South and East Jutland
The grouping of the urban macro areas is based on population city size and population density,
whereas the rural areas have been divided into four areas in order to increase the level of detail and to
capture social differences.
In some analysis, the first two and the last four macro areas are merged to create two group: urban
area and rural area. We do this to create a simpler classification and to increase the number of
observations for a category when necessary.
2
For further details see delnotat I: Møller et al. (2018). Scenarieberegninger for knallert 45 og lille motorcykel. Delnotat I. DTU
Management Engineering 2018.
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Figure 7: The six macro areas used in the analysis
For each of the macro areas, we calculated the share of the total km driven by moped (Figure 8).
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
The three Larger cities
largest cities
N Zealand, S-W Zealand N-W Jutland S-E Jutland,
Bornholm
Funen
Figure 8: Share of the total km driven by macro area.
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Figure 8 shows that the largest share of the total kilometres driven by moped is driven in South-East
Jutland, Funen, and North-West Jutland. The smallest share of the kilometres is driven in North-
Zealand. Thus the number of km driven by moped in Jutland and Funen are considerably higher than
in Zealand. Indeed, almost half (45%) of the total km are driven in the western part of Denmark.
Moreover, it has been calculated that within the following macro areas
The three largest cities
and
Larger cities,
the number of km driven per inhabitant is 0,4; while within the remaining macro areas,
the km per inhabitant are 13. Based on this, mopeds are more common in rural areas than in urban
areas. It follows the average trip length for macro areas.
Figure 9 shows the average trip length by macro area. As can be seen the lowest value has been
obtained from the category
The three largest cities.
1,4
1,2
1
0,8
Km
0,6
0,4
0,2
0
The three Larger cities
largest cities
N Zealand, S-W Zealand N-W Jutland S-E Jutland,
Bornholm
Funen
Figure 9: Average trip length by macro area.
3.3
Trip share by travel time
In order to further investigate the moped use, we calculate the proportion of moped trips based on trip
duration (see Figure 10 and 11). The results are grouped by age and, for this analysis, Denmark was
divided into: Urban area and Rural area. The urban area includes the following macro areas; The
three
largest cities
and
Other large cities
while the rural area includes the remaining macro areas.
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Urban area
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0 - 19
20 - 39
40 - 59
Minutes
15-24 Years old
>24 Years old
60 - 120
> 120
Figure 10: Trip share by trip duration, Urban area.
Rural area
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0 - 19
20 - 39
40 - 59
Minutter
60 - 120
> 120
15-24 Years old
>24 Years old
Figure 11: Trip share by trip duration, Rural area.
The results shown in Figure 10 and 11 shows that more than half of the current moped trips have a
duration shorter than 20 minutes. The number of trips decrease along with the duration. As expected,
the number of trips longer than one hour is very low.
In comparison with urban area, the share of trips shorter than 20 minutes is higher in rural area.
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3.4
Trip share by trip length
In this section, we calculate the proportion of trips based on trip length. The results are grouped by
age and by geography (macro areas). Figure 10 shows the results regarding urban area, and Figure
11 shows the results regarding rural area.
Urban area
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0-2
2-5
5 - 10
10 - 15
Kilometers
15-24 Years old
>24 Years old
15 - 25
25+
Figure 12: Trip share by trip length, Urban area.
Rural area
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0-2
2-5
5 - 10
10 - 15
15 - 25
25+
Kilometers
15-24 Years old
>24 Years old
Figure 13: Trip share by trip length, Rural area.
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As shows in Figure 12 and 13, the most common trips among young moped drivers are 5-10 km.
While, for adults, 60% of all the trips range from 2 - 10 km. As expected, the number of trips longer
than 25 km is very low.
3.5
Average trip length
In this section, we investigate the average trip length for each of the 6 macro areas.
8
6
Kilometers
4
2
0
The three largest
cities
Larger cities
N Zealand,
Bornholm
S-W Zealand
N-W Jutland
S-E Jutland, Funen
15-24 Years old
>24 Years old
Figure 14: Average trip length.
Results show that the average moped trip length in Denmark, among all the users, is 5.9 kilometers.
No significant pattern between urban and rural area or between adult and young users appear.
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3.6
Average trip duration
In this section, we investigate the average trip duration for each of the 6 macro areas.
18
15
12
Minutes
9
6
3
0
The three largest
cities
Larger cities
N Zealand,
Bornholm
S-W Zealand
N-W Jutland
S-E Jutland,
Funen
15-24 Years old
>24 Years old
Figure 15: Average moped trip duration.
Results show that the average moped trip duration in Denmark, among all the users, is 14.4 minutes.
No significant pattern between urban and rural area or between adult and young users appear.
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3.7
Variation over the years
We examined the variation of the number of km driven by moped for the period of 2006 to 2017, in
order to reveal possible increasing or decreasing trends. As before, we divide Denmark in Urban and
Rural areas. The shaded area in the charts represents the
95% confidence interval.
200
180
160
140
Millions of km
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2006-2007
2008-2009
2010-2011
2012-2013
2014-2015
2016-2017
Figure 16: Variation of the usage of mopeds (moped 30 and 45) over the last 12 years in urban areas.
450
400
350
Millions of km
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2006-2007
2008-2009
2010-2011
2012-2013
2014-2015
2016-2017
Figure 17: Variation in the usage of mopeds (moped 30 and 45) over the last 12 years in rural areas.
Given the continuous increase in the population and the increased car use in Denmark, it would be
reasonable to expect an increase in the overall moped use too. However, not only is the use of
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mopeds not increasing, it is actually decreasing. It can be argued that the total km driven is going up
on the biennium 2016 to 2017 in urban areas (Figure 16). However due to the large confidence
interval it is really not possible to make conclusions. Also, it should be taken into account, that the
minimum age limit for the moped 30 was reduced from 16 to 15 on October 1
st
, 2016. The same
possible increase is not observed in the rural areas, which is likely because the 15 year olds only
represent a small proportion of the total users.
3.8
User sex
When investigating role of moped users sex, it is clear that males drive mopeds much more than
females (Figure 18).
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Female
Urban area
Rural area
Male
Figure 18: Share of total km driven by moped by user sex
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3.9
Trip purpose
In order to understand in which situations people drive mopeds, the share of total km driven by moped
30 and 45 has been analysed based on
trip purpose
(figure 19).
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Workplace
Leisure time
Urban area
Errand
Educational
institution
Rural area
Business
Figure 19: Share of total km driven by trip purpose.
Figure 19 shows that the largest share of kilometres driven on mopeds is related to workplace
commutes, followed by leisure time commutes and commutes to an educational institution. This is true
for urban as well as rural areas. Figure 19 also indicates a difference between the use of mopeds in
urban and rural areas as the distribution of kilometres indicates, that in urban areas a larger share of
the kilometres are work or school related, whereas in urban areas a larger share of the kilometres are
related to leisure and errands.
Given the low share of total km driven by mopeds for education related trips, we decided to investigate
how students commute to school. Figure 20 shows the share of the total km driven for educational
related purposes by means of transport.
60%
45%
30%
15%
0%
Urban area
Bicycle
Car
Mopeds
Pedestrian
Rural area
Public Transport
Figure 20: Share of total km driven by trip purpose.
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Figure 20 shows that generally, students do not tend to drive mopeds to school, instead, they tend to
take cars, public transport and, in urban areas, bicycles.
In order to provide a more detailed analysis on the usage of mopeds by young users, a chart showing
the share of the total km driven by trips purpose by young users is provided below (Figure 21).
However, it is important to be aware, that the chart is based on very small numbers.
60%
40%
20%
0%
15-17 Urban area
Workplace
18-24 Urban area
Errand
15-17 Rural area
Educational institution
18-24 Rural area
Business
Leisure time
Figure 21: Share of total km driven by moped by trip purpose for young users.
It appears that the proportion of errand, educational and business related trips tend not to change in
the different categories. However, one main difference can be noticed: 15 to 17 year old users drive
mostly for free-time related purposes, while 18-24 year old users drive mostly in connection with the
commute to the workplace.
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3.10 Seasonality
It is reasonable to think that the usage of mopeds depends on weather conditions, for this reason, we
calculate the share of total km driven for each season. Notice that the season has been approximated
as aggregation of 3 months starting from winter as aggregation of December-January-February.
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Winter [12-2]
Spring [3-5]
Urban
Summer [6-8]
Rural
Fall [9-11]
Figure 22. Share of total km driven by season.
Mopeds are least used during Winter Time when compared with the other period of the year. The
difference in moped use between Winter Time and the other season is clear in urban areas while it is
lower in rural areas. This can be due to less availability of transport alternatives in rural areas such as
public transport.
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3.11 Public transport availability
Given that differences in the availability of public transport in urban and rural area may influence
transport related mode choice, we show the results of an analysis of the number of departures in
Denmark below (figure 23). The map shows the ratio between daily departure and area for each
municipality. Moreover, it is possible to distinguish between the macro area given the coloured borders
and the numbers.
Daily departures/ 100m^2
Figure 23 The ratio between daily departure and area for each municipality.
Figure 23 shows, as expected, that the availability of public transport is higher in urban areas than in
rural area.
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4
Conclusion
Based on The Danish National Travel Survey this fact sheet provides an overview of selected aspects
of the moped use and the users. The overview is based on data from 2013 to 2018.
The use of mopeds in Denmark is limited. To ensure enough data the two moped categories, moped
30 and moped 45, were therefore both included in all analysis.
More males than females drives a moped, but results confirm that moped use is limited. The
kilometres driven on mopeds constitute less than 2,5% of the total kilometres driven. The moped is
used more in rural areas compared to urban areas 0,4 km per citizen in urban areas compared to 13
km per citizen in rural areas.
The overview showed that moped is more common among persons who do not have a driving license.
Some of the moped users never had a license (probably because they are still young), whereas others
no longer has a license.
With regard to geographical differences, the analysis showed that the largest share of the total number
of moped kilometres are performed in South-East Jutland and Funen, and the smallest share in North-
Zealand. However, on average people driver the longest trips in South-West Zealand and the larger
cities.
More than half of the trips last less than 20 minutes and the share of trips with a duration of less than
20 minutes is higher in rural areas. For young moped users (15-24 years old) the most common trip is
a trip of 5-10 kilometres. Young moped users mainly use the moped for leisure related trips rather than
work or educational related trips.
21
 B 7 - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 3: DTU-rapport om aldersgrænsen for erhvervelse af kørekort til stor knallert og lille motorcykel
1996277_0022.png
5
Appendix
Table 3: Share of total km driven by mean of transport, Urban area
Category
All the Population [10-84]
Young [15-17]
Young [18-24]
No driving license [18-84]
Yes driving license [18-84]
Millions of Km
1.819
19.808
43
856
1.221
74
342
7
30
152
286
1.733
6
130
313
274
534
9
165
336
1.389
18.302
27
621
699
Means of transport
Bicycle
Car
Mopeds
Pedestrian
Public Transport
Bicycle
Car
Mopeds
Pedestrian
Public Transport
Bicycle
Car
Mopeds
Pedestrian
Public Transport
Bicycle
Car
Mopeds
Pedestrian
Public Transport
Bicycle
Car
Mopeds
Pedestrian
Public Transport
Share
7,7%
83,4%
0,2%
3,6%
5,1%
12,2%
56,5%
1,2%
5,0%
25,1%
11,6%
70,2%
0,2%
5,3%
12,7%
20,8%
40,5%
0,7%
12,5%
25,5%
6,6%
87,0%
0,1%
3,0%
3,3%
22
 B 7 - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 3: DTU-rapport om aldersgrænsen for erhvervelse af kørekort til stor knallert og lille motorcykel
1996277_0023.png
Table 4. Share of total km driven by mean of transport, Rural area
Means of transport
Bicycle
Car
All the Population [10-84] Mopeds
Pedestrian
Public Transport
Bicycle
Car
Young [15-17]
Mopeds
Pedestrian
Public Transport
Bicycle
Car
Young [18-24]
Mopeds
Pedestrian
Public Transport
Bicycle
Car
No driving license [18-84] Mopeds
Pedestrian
Public Transport
Bicycle
Car
Yes driving license [18-84] Mopeds
Pedestrian
Public Transport
Category
Millions of Km
1.073
41.260
98
797
992
76
764
22
51
220
88
3.211
5
76
247
103
1.093
32
105
247
780
37.982
47
599
456
Share
2,4%
93,3%
0,2%
1,8%
2,2%
6,7%
67,5%
1,9%
4,5%
19,4%
2,4%
88,5%
0,1%
2,1%
6,8%
6,5%
69,2%
2,0%
6,6%
15,6%
2,0%
95,3%
0,1%
1,5%
1,1%
23