Energi-, Forsynings- og Klimaudvalget 2018-19 (1. samling)
EFK Alm.del Bilag 146
Offentligt
1999872_0001.png
De
ark’s
Draft
Integrated
National Energy and Climate Plan
under the
REGULATION OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL
on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action
Version: 1.0
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0002.png
Date: December 2018
To be submitted to the European Commission: 31 December 2018
2
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0003.png
Contents
1. OVERVIEW AND PROCESS FOR ESTABLISHING THE PLAN .............................................. 6
1.1 E
XECUTIVE
S
UMMARY
........................................................................................................ 6
1.2 O
VERVIEW OF CURRENT POLICY SITUATION
........................................................................... 10
1.3 C
ONSULTATIONS AND INVOLVEMENT OF NATIONAL AND
EU
ENTITIES AND THEIR OUTCOME
........... 11
1.4 R
EGIONAL COOPERATION IN PREPARING THE PLAN
................................................................. 12
2.0 NATIONAL OBJECTIVES AND TARGETS ...................................................................... 14
2.1 D
IMENSION
D
ECARBONISATION
..................................................................................... 14
2.1.1 GHG emissions and removals ............................................................................. 14
2.1.2 Renewable energy .............................................................................................. 20
2.2 Dimension Energy efficiency ................................................................................. 24
2.3 Dimension Energy security .................................................................................... 29
2.4 Dimension Internal energy market ....................................................................... 32
2.5 Dimension Research, innovation and competitiveness ......................................... 36
3.
POLICIES AND MEASURES...................................................................................... 38
3.1 D
IMENSION
D
ECARBONISATION
..................................................................................... 38
3.1.1 GHG emissions and removals ............................................................................. 38
3.1.2 Renewable energy .............................................................................................. 45
3.1.3 Other elements of the dimension ....................................................................... 54
3.2 D
IMENSION
E
NERGY EFFICIENCY
..................................................................................... 55
3.3 D
IMENSION
E
NERGY SECURITY
....................................................................................... 63
3.4 D
IMENSION
I
NTERNAL ENERGY MARKET
........................................................................... 65
3.4.1 Electricity infrastructure ..................................................................................... 65
3.4.2 Energy transmission infrastructure .................................................................... 66
3.4.3 Market integration ............................................................................................. 67
3.5 D
IMENSION
R
ESEARCH
,
INNOVATION AND COMPETITIVENESS
.............................................. 70
4.
CURRENT SITUATION AND PROJECTIONS WITH EXISTING POLICIES AND MEASURES
,
........................... 74
4.1
P
ROJECTED EVOLUTION OF MAIN EXOGENOUS FACTORS INFLUENCING ENERGY SYSTEM AND
GHG
EMISSION DEVELOPMENTS
...................................................................................................... 74
4.2 D
IMENSION
D
ECARBONISATION
..................................................................................... 85
4.2.1 GHG emissions and removals ............................................................................. 85
4.2.2 Renewable energy .............................................................................................. 95
4.3 D
IMENSION
E
NERGY EFFICIENCY
..................................................................................... 99
4.4 D
IMENSION
E
NERGY SECURITY
..................................................................................... 100
4.5 D
IMENSION
I
NTERNAL ENERGY MARKET
......................................................................... 103
4.5.1 Electricity interconnectivity .............................................................................. 103
4.5.2 Energy transmission infrastructure .................................................................. 105
.................................................................................................................................. 108
4.5.3 Electricity and gas markets, energy prices ....................................................... 108
4.6 D
IMENSION
R
ESEARCH
,
INNOVATION AND COMPETITIVENESS
............................................ 114
3
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0004.png
5.
IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF PLANNED POLICIES AND MEASURES ........................... 116
5.1
I
MPACTS OF PLANNED POLICIES AND MEASURES DESCRIBED IN SECTION
3
ON ENERGY SYSTEM AND
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS INCLUDING COMPARISON TO PROJECTIONS WITH EXISTING
POLICIES AND MEASURES
(
AS DESCRIBED IN SECTION
4). ............................................................. 116
5.2 M
ACROECONOMIC
,
AND TO THE EXTENT FEASIBLE
,
THE HEALTH
,
ENVIRONMENTAL
,
EMPLOYMENT AND
EDUCATION
,
SKILLS AND SOCIAL IMPACTS INCLUDING JUST TRANSITION ASPECTS
(
IN TERMS OF COSTS AND
BENEFITS AS WELL AS COST
-
EFFECTIVENESS
)
OF THE PLANNED POLICIES AND MEASURES DESCRIBED IN
SECTION
3
AT LEAST UNTIL THE LAST YEAR OF THE PERIOD COVERED BY THE PLAN
,
INCLUDING COMPARISON
TO PROJECTIONS WITH EXISTING POLICIES AND MEASURES
........................................................... 119
5.3 O
VERVIEW OF INVESTMENT NEEDS
............................................................................... 119
5.4 I
MPACTS OF PLANNED POLICIES AND MEASURES DESCRIBED IN SECTION
3
ON OTHER
M
EMBER
S
TATES
AND REGIONAL COOPERATION AT LEAST UNTIL THE LAST YEAR OF THE PERIOD COVERED BY THE PLAN
,
INCLUDING COMPARISON TO PROJECTIONS WITH EXISTING POLICIES AND MEASURES
......................... 122
PART 2 .......................................................................................................................... 125
1.
GENERAL PARAMETERS AND VARIABLES............................................................. 125
2. E
NERGY BALANCES AND INDICATORS
................................................................................... 126
2.1 Energy supply ...................................................................................................... 126
2.2 E
LECTRICITY AND HEAT
................................................................................................... 127
2.3T
RANSFORMATION SECTOR
.............................................................................................. 127
2.4 E
NERGY CONSUMPTION
.............................................................................................. 128
2.5.
P
RICES
............................................................................................................... 128
2.6 I
NVESTMENTS
.............................................................................................................. 128
2.7 R
ENEWABLES
........................................................................................................... 128
3.0 GHG
EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS RELATED INDICATORS
.................................................... 129
FURTHER REPORTING ON ARTICLE 7 IN THE ENERGY EFFICIENCY DIRECTIVE ................ 132
4
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0005.png
Part 1: General framework
SECTION A: NATIONAL PLAN
5
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0006.png
1. OVERVIEW AND PROCESS FOR ESTABLISHING THE PLAN
1.1 Executive Summary
(i) Political, economic, environmental, and social context of the plan
Denmark is a frontrunner within the green energy transition with a large share of
renewable energy in the system, high security of supply and great focus on energy
efficiency and research and innovation. The current Danish Government has in
June 2018 reached a political energy agreement between the Government (the
Li e al Pa t of De a k, Li e al Allia e a d the Co se ati e People s Pa t ,
and all other Parties of the Danish Parliament (Social Democrats, the Danish
People's Party, the Red-Green Alliance, the Alternative, the Social Liberal Party
a d the So ialist People s Pa t
)
to fu the uild De a k s i te atio al positio s
of strength with a focus on renewable energy, energy efficiency improvements,
research and development and energy regulation. The agreement establishes a
professional and efficient energy sector as the basis for the transition to a
sustainable green society. All of the political parties of the Danish Parliament thus
agree to maintain the pace of the green transition.
The agreement aims to ensure a market-driven green transition. Technological
advances and competition to deliver renewable energy have made it realistic to
envision a scenario in the near future where green solutions can be delivered on
commercial terms. This has served as a strong motivating factor in the efforts to
esta lish De a k s positio as the o ld s leadi g offsho e i d atio . Offsho e
wind is expected to be able to generate green electricity on market conditions
without state subsidies within just a few years. On this basis, a decision has been
made to establish three offshore wind farms by 2030, which will serve as a
substantial contribution to the green transition.
To ensure that renewable energy becomes
De a k s p edo i a t sou e of
electricity within the foreseeable future, as well as an increasingly utilised primary
energy source for heating, technology-neutral energy tender processes involving
solar PV, land-based wind, offshore wind near coasts and other technologies will
be conducted in the coming years. The expansion of renewable energy capacity
will need to contribute to the cheapest possible future production of green
energy, thus benefitting Danish society as a whole.
The green transition encompasses both the energy sector and climate policy.
Therefore, there is agreement among all political parties that Denmark will work
towards net zero emissions, in accordance with the Paris Agreement, and
advocate for the adoption of a target of net zero emissions in the EU and Denmark
by 2050 at the latest. During recent years, there have been announcements made
6
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0007.png
by energy companies in Denmark to phase out coal before 2030. It has been
agreed between all political parties to phase out coal in electricity production
between now and 2030.
The parties in the energy agreement have allocated funding that sets a course
towards a RE (renewable energy) share of approximately 55% by 2030. The
agreement also aims to give Denmark a RE share in electricity above 100% of
consumption, and ensure that at least 90% of district heating consumption is
based on energy sources other than coal, oil or gas by 2030. The parties agree to
monitor developments closely throughout the agreement period (2020-2024).
Furthermore, the parties of the Energy Agreement agreed on the need to reduce
energy taxes to encourage more people to choose green solutions such as heat
pumps, which can also promote a more flexible and integrated energy system and
better utilisation of surplus heat.
The Energy Agreement also represents an important step in an ambitious climate
agenda, including the allocation of government funding to support green solutions
in the transport sector.
Furthermore, on 9 October 2018 the government published its Climate and Air
Proposal Together for a greener future
ith
additional measures for reducing
both greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution.
The Government is working for a climate-neutral society by 2050, which means
that at least as much greenhouse gas as emitted will absorbed.
This is a highly ambitious goal. A step towards achieving the goal will be a
Denmark without cars driven by fossil fuels. All of the cars, busses and taxis in our
city streets today must eventually be replaced by alternative vehicles with zero
greenhouse gas emissions.
The government is taking a dual-track approach to achieving this goal by making it
even more attractive to drive low-emission vehicles than at present, and by
setting a clear political goal with end dates for the sale of new petrol and diesel
vehicles. This sends an unequivocal signal to the car industry that the time has
come to speed up the pace of technological advances.
Climate impacts and air pollution from the agricultural production must be
reduced to even lower levels. The best existing solutions must be adopted and
implemented as far and wide as possible, and research into new technologies,
products and agricultural methods must be conducted. New solutions that
targeted research efforts are capable of delivering is needed.
7
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0008.png
In the follow-up of the 2016 Government Platform and the announced climate
st ateg , the go e
e t pu lished its Cli ate a d Ai p oposal Togethe fo a
g ee e futu e o O to e
.
The go e
e t s ai is
to keep Denmark at the global forefront of
environmental policy. The government wants to ensure that Danes continue to
enjoy access to clean air and a stable climate, while steering development towards
green solutions in Denmark, Europe, and around the world. These aims will be
pursued through a series of initiatives that put Denmark on course for reaching its
climate goals in the EU by 2030. These initiatives also push towards the ambitious
goal of a climate-neutral Denmark by 2050, where Denmark is absorbing at least
as much greenhouse gas as it is emitting.
The li ate a d ai p oposal Togethe fo a g ee e futu e alls o all Da es to
come together and embrace a shared responsibility for our planet. The proposal
takes shape through 38 concrete initiatives to ensure cleaner transport in cities
and the countryside, efficient and modern agriculture, more environmentally-
friendly shipping, and a green transition in housing and industry.
The climate and air proposal includes the following initiatives:
The last petrol and diesel car will be sold in 2030
C1)
Phase-out of sales of new petrol and diesel cars in 2030, and of new plug-
in hybrid cars in
2035.
C2)
A commission for the transition to green cars must show the way.
C3)
No registration tax in 2019 and 2020 on green cars priced below 400,000
DKK.
C4)
Lower taxation on green company cars.
C5)
Charging a low-emission car must be faster.
C6)
Greater powers for municipalities to grant parking discounts for low-
emission cars.
C7)
Ensuring parking spaces with charging stations for low-emission cars.
C8)
De a k s u i ipalities a g a t lo
-emission cars permission to drive
in bus lanes.
C9)
Research into the dynamics between electric cars and the energy system.
Cleaner transport in cities and the countryside
C10)
A e d to a o e issio s a d ai pollutio f o
usses i De a k s
cities by 2030
–
starting with the first step in 2020, where new buses must be
CO2-neutral.
C11)
Clea ai i De a k s ig ities –
bringing environmental zones up to
date.
C12) Petrol and diesel out of taxi operations by 2030.
C13) Benefits for green taxis.
8
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0009.png
C14) Higher scrapping premium for old diesel cars.
C15) Putting an end to NOx fraud.
C16) All new asphalt on national roads must be climate-friendly, if an ongoing
pilot project can confirm the expected effects and durability of the asphalt.
C17) More biofuel in petrol and diesel.
More environmentally-friendly shipping at sea and in port
C18) More environmentally-friendly cruise tourism in the Baltic Sea.
C19) Monitoring of sulphur emissions in Danish waters.
An efficient and modern agricultural sector
C20) Less ammonia in the air.
C21) Improvement of biogas plants.
C22) Air- and climate-friendly technology in pig farms.
C23) Stronger research efforts in agriculture.
C24) Promotion of precision agriculture.
C25) Land distribution fund focused on environment, climate and nature.
C26) Partnership with the agricultural sector.
Green transition of housing and industry
C27) Old wood-burning stoves must be scrapped in connection with transfers of
home ownership.
C28) Scrapping premium for old wood-burning stoves.
C29) Stricter regulation of climate-damaging gases in cooling systems.
C30) Strategy for development of the natural gas system.
We can all play a part in helping the climate
C31) Behavioural campaign with climate labelling.
C32) Climate activities for Danes.
Towards a climate-neutral Denmark by 2050
C33) Increased research into carbon dioxide removal and storage.
C34) Use of carbon dioxide removal in climate efforts.
C35) Analysis to improve the monitoring and accounting of carbon dioxide
storage in soils and forests.
An impactful climate effort
C36) Annulment of carbon dioxide allowances.
C37) More funding for climate efforts in 2026-2030.
C38) Ongoing follow-up on our efforts.
In households and industry, the government will continue the proud Danish
tradition of ambitious environmental standards and gradually reduce
environmental impacts.
9
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0010.png
The government will also introduce new initiatives in shipping that will contribute
to a greener future.
The government will make it easier for ordinary Danes to choose climatefriendly
solutions in their everyday lives. With a focus on good ideas and visionary
initiatives, we will enable everyone to take part in climate efforts.
The aim of achieving climate neutrality by 2050 requires that we capture and store
carbon currently in the atmosphere. Therefore, the government will undertake a
targeted research effort that will enable Denmark to capture and store
considerable amounts of atmospheric carbon.
Together for a greener future
i ludes:
-
-
Stop on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars in 2030, and plug-in hybrid
cars in 2035.
From 2020, all new busses must be climatefriendly powered by e.g.
electricity, hydrogen, biogas or biofuels. From 2030, city busses and taxis
may not be powered by fossil fuels, but by e.g. electricity or hydrogen.
Concrete initiatives and targeted research will future-proof agriculture.
Initiatives in housing, industry and shipping will also benefit the climate
and air quality.
Climate labelling and information will make it easier to be a climate-
conscious consumer.
Research in carbon capture and storage will pave the way for a climate-
neutral Denmark.
-
-
-
-
1.2 Overview of current policy situation
(i) National and Union energy system and policy context of the national plan
All political parties reached an energy agreement in June 2018, setting the scene
for the future Danish energy policy. The measures and policies decided in the
agreement are now in the process of being implemented.
Furthermore, the Danish Government launced its Climate and Air Proposal
Togethe fo a g ee e futu e
in October 2018, with 38 additional initiatives
targetting both both greenhouse gas emissions and air polluting emissions of
which some are already being negotiatied with a view to be adopted in the near
future
10
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0011.png
(ii) Current energy and climate policies and measures relating to the five
dimensions of the Energy Union
The current energy and climate policies and measures will be elaborated on in
chapter 3
(iii) Key issues of cross-border relevance
As a small country taking part in the integrated Nordic electricity market, cross-
border aspects of the energy system has become more and more relevant for
Denmark. Especially in light of the increasing amount of fluctuating energy in the
energy system, Denmark sees an increased importance of a well-functioning and
integrated energy market across borders. Thus, knowledge of the energy mix and
policies, as well as co-operation with our
eig ou i g ou t ies is i easi gl
important.
(iv) Administrative structure of implementing national energy and climate policies
The implementation of energy and climate policy is done in the same way as other
sector legislation and is implemented in the Ministry of Energy, Utilities and
Climate.
1.3 Consultations and involvement of national and EU entities and
their outcome
(i) Involvement of the Parliament
The Danish Parliament has been informed about the Danish draft plan, before the
it was handed over to the Commission.
(ii) Involvement of local and regional authorities
There has not been a specific involvement of local or regional authorities, but the
o ga isatio ep ese ti g the u i ipalities Lo al go e
e t De a k has
been involved in the hearing of the draft plan, as well as the organisation
representing the different regions in Denmark, the so-
alled Da ish Regio s .
(iii) Consultations with stakeholders, including social partners, and engagement of
civil society and the general public
The Danish Ministry of Energy, Utilities and Climate has a structure in place where
relevant stakeholders get the opportunity to take part in a hearing via the socalled
EU Special Committee. The draft NECP was presented for the EU Special
Committee in December 2018, where they had the opportunity to comment on
the draft.
11
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0012.png
(iv) Consultations with other Member States
Cooperation, coordination and general dialogue is taking place with the Nordic
countries via the Nordic Council of Ministers. There has been established an ad
hoc networking group with participation of the NECP coordinators in the Nordic
Countries. This networking group has had its first couple of meetings to discuss
the work. Further, a Nordic modelling workshop has been arranged.
(v) Iterative process with the European Commission
Dialogue with the European Commission has taken place within the structure of
the Technical Working Group on the National Energy and Climate Plans.
1.4 Regional cooperation in preparing the plan
(i) Elements subject to joint or coordinated planning with other Member States
Denmark is part of the wider North Seas region, which has a large renewable
energy potential. The European Commission has estimated that offshore wind
from the North Seas can cover up to 12 pct. of the electric power consumption in
the EU by 2030.
Offshore wind generation and grid infrastructure projects may have cross-border
effects on energy prices, security of supply and the environment, including
availability of marine space as well as the pace of innovation. The North Seas
countries therefore have great benefits to gain from cooperation.
The North Seas Energy Cooperation (NSEC) is a voluntary, bottom up, market-
oriented, regional cooperation initiative established in 2016, which seeks to create
synergies and to avoid incompatibilities between national policies and to foster
joint strategies where possible and beneficial. The aim is to coordinate and
facilitate further cost-effective deployment of offshore renewable energy, in
particular wind, ensuring a sustainable, secure and affordable energy supply in the
North Seas countries through increased and better coordinated offshore wind
deployment as well as potential joint projects or cluster projects. The NSEC
focuses on a step-by-step approach with the perspective of further integration
and increased efficiency of wholesale electricity markets in the longer term, while
contributing to a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, in average wholesale
price spreads and enhancing security supply in the region.
The North Seas Energy Cooperation consists of 10 countries with participation
from the European Commission: Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, France,
Germany, UK, Ireland, Norway, Sweden and Denmark.
The support groups under the cooperation focuses on the following subjects:
12
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0013.png
SG1: Maritime Spatial Planning
SG2: Development and regulation of offshore grids and other offshore
infrastructure
SG3: Support framework and finance for offshore wind projects
SG4: Standards, technical rules and regulations in the offshore wind sector
As regards to preparing this plan, Denmark made use of the NSEC, in which
experts in the support groups shared information and experiences on specific
aspects, for example on offshore wind development and in particular
development on aggregation of national renewable energy trajectories for
offshore wind until 2030 (2.1.2) and market integration (2.4.1).
As regards to measures, Denmark benefits from the NSEC in several ways. The
work in the NSEC provides a platform for exchange of best practice as regards to
the design of support schemes and to exchange and work on new concepts
tackling new challenges as regards support for offshore wind. The NSEC also
serves as a platform to jointly work on concepts for potential joint wind offshore
projects (3.1.2) and for coordinated electricity infrastructure including
transmission infrastructure.
Furthermore, Denmark made use of the Nordic cooperation within the Nordic
Council of Ministers, as mentioned above.
(ii) Explanation of how regional cooperation is considered in the plan
As regards to measures, Denmark benefits from the NSEC in several ways. The
work in the NSEC provides a platform for exchange of best practice as regards to
the design of support schemes and to exchange and work on new concepts
tackling new challenges as regards support for offshore wind. The NSEC also
serves as a platform to jointly work on concepts for potential joint wind offshore
projects (3.1.2), for coordinated electricity infrastructure including transmission
infrastructure (3.4.1 and 3.4.2) and renewable market integration measures
(3.4.3)
13
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0014.png
2.0 NATIONAL OBJECTIVES AND TARGETS
2.1 Dimension Decarbonisation
2.1.1 GHG emissions and removals
(i) The Member State's binding national target for greenhouse gas emissions and
the annual binding national limits pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2018/842
1
, and
the Me er States’s o
it e ts pursua t to Regulatio EU
/ 4
2
.
Where applicable to meet the objectives and targets of the Energy Union and
the long-term Union greenhouse gas emissions commitments consistent with
the Paris Agreement, other objectives and targets, including sector targets and
adaptation goals.
In October 2014 the European Council agreed on the 2030 climate and energy
framework on objectives regarding green house gas emissions, energy efficiency,
renewable energy and interconnections. On green house gas emissions the EU
endorse a binding EU target of at least 40% less greenhouse gas emissions by
2030, compared to 1990.
The agreement on the 2030 framework, specifically the EU domestic greenhouse
gas reduction target of at least 40%, formed the basis of the EU's contribution to
the Pa is Ag ee e t. The EU s so-called
Intended Nationally Determined
Contribution (INDC) was formally approved at an Environment Council meeting in
March 2015.
In May 2018 the European Council adopted a regulation on the EU effort sharing
of greenhouse gas emission reductions in the non-ETS sectors in the period 2021-
2030
–
the so-called Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR)
3
. Under this regulation
Denmark is committed to a reduction in non-ETS emissions in the period 2021-
2030, rising to 39% by 2030 relative to 2005. The flexibilities under the ESR include
borrowing, banking and transfer of annual emission allowances between years
and between member states (cf. Article 5), cancellation of EU ETS Allowances
instead
–
in practice meaning that reductions are made under EU ETS instead of
1
Effort sharing regulation, 2018/842
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-
content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32018R0842&from=EN
2
LULUCF, 2018/841
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32018R0841&from=EN
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32018R0842&from=EN
14
3
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0015.png
under ESR (cf. Article 6) and use of credits from LULUCF (cf. Article 7). Further
details on the commitments under the ESR regulation are included below.
In May 2018 the European Council also adopted a regulation of emissions by
sources and removals by sinks in the land sector
–
the LULUCF regulation, where
LULUCF is La d-Use,
Land-Use
Cha ge a d Fo est
. C edits o tai ed u de this
regulation can be used to reach the target for the non-ETS sector in accordance
with the ESR up to a certain limit. The limit for Denmark is 14.6 million credits
from LULUCF. Further details on the commitments under the LULUCF regulation
are included below.
The EU is committed to reducing its ETS emissions by 43% from 2005 to 2030 to
achieve the 40% below 1990 levels by 2030 in total greenhouse gas emissions.The
EU has also set itself the target of increasing the share of renewables in energy use
to 32% by 2030.
The Danish Energy Agreement from June 2018 includes a number of new
initiatives that will set the path towards a 55 pct. renewables share in 2030 in
Denmark.
Co siste
ith De a k s lo g-term
low emission strategy is ensured as
De a k s targets
under the ESR regulation and the LULUCF Regulation are to be
seen as steps in 2021-2030 towards the Gove
e t s lo g-term
objective to
become a carbon neutral society by 2050. The targets 2021-2030 are consistent
ith the ta get fo
. Fu the i fo atio ill e i luded i De a k s lo g-
term low emission strategy to be submitted to the European Commission by 1
January 2020 pursuant to Article 15 of the Governance Regulation.
Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR)
As regards the dimension "Decarbonisation", and with respect to greenhouse gas
emissions and removals and with a view to contributing to the achievement of the
e o o
ide EU g ee house gas e issio s edu tio ta get i
, De a k s
binding national target for greenhouse gas emissions and annual binding national
limits pursuant to Regulation ESR are as follows:
2030:
Li it De a k s o
-ETS greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 at least by 39
pe e t i elatio to De a k s e issio s i
dete i ed pu sua t to
paragraph 3 of Regulation ESR
4
.
4
Taking into account the flexibilities provided for in Articles 5, 6 and 7 of Regulation 2018/842 [ESR] cf. the
egulatio s A ti le o o plia e he k
(see footnote 5).
15
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0016.png
2021-2029: Taking into account the flexibilities provided for in Articles 5, 6 and 7
of Regulation ESR
5
, the adjustment pursuant to Article 10(2) of the regulation
6
and
any deduction resulting from the application of Article 7 of Decision No
406/2009/EC
7
, e su e that De a k s o
-ETS greenhouse gas emissions in each
year between 2021 and 2029 do not exceed the limit defined by a linear
t aje to , sta ti g i
o the a e age of De a k s o
-ETS greenhouse gas
emissions during 2016, 2017 and 2018 determined pursuant to paragraph 3 of
Article 4 of the ESR Regulation and ending in 2030 on the limit mentioned above.
LULUCF Regulation
As regards the dimension "Decarbonisation", and with respect to greenhouse gas
emissions and removals and with a view to contributing to the achievement of the
economy wide EU greenhouse gas emissions reduction target in 203
, De a k s
commitments pursuant to LULUCF Regulation are as follows:
2021-2030: Account for emissions and removals from land use, land use change
and forestry ('LULUCF') in accordance with LULUCF Regulation and as reported
pursuant to Article 7 of Regulation (EU) No 525/2013
8
occurring in the following
land accounting categories on the EU territory of Denmark:
(a) During the periods from 2021 to 2025 and from 2026 to 2030:
(i)
affo ested la d : la d use epo ted as opla d, g assla d, etla ds,
settlements, and other land converted to forest land;
5
The flexibilities under the ESR include borrowing, banking and transfer of annual emission allowances between
years and between member states (cf. Article 5), cancellation of EU ETS Allowances instead
–
in practice
meaning that reductions are made under EU ETS instead of under ESR (cf. Article 6) and use of credits from
LULUCF (cf. Article 7).
According to article 10(2) of the ESR certain member states can get extra annual emissions allowances for 2021.
This is not the case for Denmark.
Application of Article 7 of the Effort Sharing Decision 406/2009 (the EU decision on EU membe
States o
-ETS
targets for the period 2013-2020:
https://eur-
lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:140:0136:0148:EN:PDF
) is a deduction of annual
emissions allowances in the period 2021-2030 due to non-compliance in the period 2013-2020 (not relevant
for Denmark as Denmark expects to be in compliance in the period 2013-2020).
MMR: Regulation(EU) No 525/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2013 on a
mechanism for monitoring and reporting greenhouse gas emissions and for reporting other information at
national and Union level relevant to climate change and repealing Decision No 280/2004/EC (https://eur-
lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2013:165:0013:0040:EN:PDF
)
16
6
7
8
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0017.png
(ii)
defo ested la d : la d use epo ted as fo est la d o e ted to opla d,
grassland, wetlands, settlements, and other land;
a aged opla d : la d use epo ted as:
cropland remaining cropland,
grassland, wetland, settlement, other land converted to cropland, and
cropland converted to wetland, settlement and other land;
(iii)
(iv)
a aged g assla d : la d use epo ted as:
grassland remaining grassland,
cropland, wetland, settlement and other land, converted to grassland,
and
grassland converted to wetland, settlement and other land;
(v)
a aged fo est la d : la d use epo ted as fo est la d e ai i g fo est
land.
As of
:
a aged etla d : la d use epo ted as
wetland remaining wetland,
settlement, other land converted to wetland, and
wetland converted to settlement and other land.
2021-2025 and 2026-2030: Taking into account the flexibilities provided for in
Articles 11-13 of the LULUCF Regulation
9
Denmark will ensure that emissions do
not exceed removals, calculated as the sum of total emissions and removals on
De a k s EU te ito i the la d a ou ti g atego ies e tio ed a o e
combined and as accounted in accordance with the LULUCF Regulation.
(ii) Where applicable, other national objectives and targets consistent with the
Paris Agreement and the existing long-term strategies. Where applicable for the
contribution to the overall Union commitment of reducing the GHG emissions,
9
These flexibilities include transfer and banking of credits from LULUCF as well as eliminating the effect of net
emissions in the LULUCF sector up to an amount that equals deleted emission allocations and the effect of
net emissions from Managed Forest Land under conditions specified in Article 13 of Regulation
2018/841[LULUCF].
17
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0018.png
other objectives and targets, including sector targets and adaptation goals, if
available
De a k s ea l a tio s to a hie e e e g a d li ate ta gets i the past a d
until
2020 are to be seen as important steps in the continuous effort to limit and
edu e De a k s g ee house gas e issio s
in the long-term. Since 1990
Denmark has undertaken or committed itself to several targets with respect to
reducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing the share of renewable energy:
2000:
In accordance with the Climate Convention, to reduce total emissions
of greenhouse gases in Denmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands to
the 1990 level by 2000. This target was achieved for total emissions
excluding the land-use sector (LULUCF). Due to windfalls total
emissions including LULUCF brought the realm to within 1% of the
target. As a contribution to stabilization of GHG in the EU, Denmark
committed itself to reducing CO2 emissions in 2000 by 5% compared
to the adjusted level for 1990. This target was fulfilled.
2008-2012: In relation to the Kyoto Protocol, for the period 2008-2012 the EU
committed itself to reducing emissions of greenhouse gases on
average to 8% below the level in the base year; 1990 for CO2,
methane, and nitrous oxide and either 1990 or 1995 for industrial
greenhouse gases. Denmark committed itself to a reduction of 21% as
an element of the so-called burden-sharing agreement within the EU.
Both Denmark and the EU reached these targets.
2013-2020: In relation to the period 2013-2020, the EU reached an agreement in
December 2008 on a climate and energy package and on a regulation
on CO2 from new vehicles. According to this package the EU is
committed to reducing its overall emissions to at least 20% below
1990 levels by 2020. Under the EU burden sharing of the joint EU
target for 2020, Denmark is committed to a reduction in non-ETS
emissions in the period 2013-2020, rising to 20% by 2020 relative to
2005. The EU is also committed to reducing its ETS emissions to 21%
below 2005 levels by 2020. The EU has also set itself the target of
increasing the share of renewables in energy use to 20% by 2020.
Under burden sharing for this EU target, Denmark is committed to
18
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0019.png
reaching a 30% share of renewables in energy use by 2020. Both
Denmark and the EU are on track to reaching these emissions
reduction and renewable energy targets
10
.
As a result of the Danish Energy Agreement in 2012 the following
additional headline results expected to be achieved by 2020:
•
More than 35% renewable energy in final energy consumption.
•
Approximately 70% of electricity consumption to be supplied by
renewable energy sources in total and about 50% of electricity
consumption to be supplied by wind power.
•
Approximately 8% reduction in gross energy consumption in
relation to 2010.
•
34% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in relation to 1990.
Denmark is well on track to meet these additional targets by 2020.
Beyond 2020
I
, the go e
e t s
long-term objective for Denmark was to become a low-
emission society by 2050
i depe de t of fossil fuels a d o t i uti g to the EU s
target of 80-95 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 relative to
1990. The near-term targets
–
in addition to the EU targets for Denmark described
above
–
were: (1) to pursue a target of
at least pe e t of De a k s e e g
needs to come from renewable sources by 2030 and (2) to implement the political
agreement on the introduction of a blending requirement of 0.9 per cent
advanced biofuels in fuel for land transport.
These ambitions have been stepped up in 2018 through the Energy Agreement of
Ju e
a d the li ate a d ai p oposal Togethe fo a g ee e futu e of
October 2018 so that the government has now (1) set the path towards reaching
a share of approximately 55 per cent renewable energy by 2030 and (2) work
towards net zero emissions in accordance with the Paris agreement and for a net-
zero-emission target in the EU and Denmark by 2050 to push towards the
go e
e t s goal of a li ate-neutral
Denmark by 2050.
As a result of the Danish Energy Agreement in 2018 the following additional
headline results are expected to be achieved by 2030:
10
https://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/eu-still-on-track-to
19
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0020.png
•
•
The parties in the agreement have allocated funding that sets a course
towards a share of renewable energy of approximately 55% by 2030.
The agreement is expected to give Denmark a share of renewable
energy in electricity above 100% of consumption by 2030, while
ensuring that at least 90% of district heating consumption is based on
energy sources other than coal, oil or gas by 2030.
The key initiatives in the 2018 climate and air proposal include:
•
Phase out the sale of new petrol and diesel cars in 2030.
• Ze o a o e issio s a d ze o ai pollutio f o
2030.
usses i De
a k s ities
•
A climate- and environmentally-efficient agricultural sector, with a strong focus
on research.
•
Clean air in big cities through stricter environmental zones.
•
Lower emissions from industry and housing.
•
Behavioral campaign with climate labelling.
•
Research efforts to develop carbon capture and storage technologies for use in
De a k s fields a d fo ests.
2.1.2 Renewable energy
(i) With a view to achieving the Union's binding target of at least 32 % renewable
energy in 2030 as referred to in Article 3 of the Renewables Directive , a
contribution to that target in terms of the Member State's share of energy from
renewable sources in gross final consumption of energy in 2030, with an indicative
trajectory for that contribution from 2021 onwards. By 2022, the indicative
trajectory shall reach a reference point of at least 18 % of the total increase in the
share of energy from renewable sources between that Member State's binding
2020 national target, and its contribution to the 2030 target. By 2025, the
indicative trajectory shall reach a reference point of at least 43 % of the total
increase in the share of energy from renewable sources between that Member
State's binding 2020 national target and its contribution to the 2030 target. By
2027, the indicative trajectory shall reach a reference point of at least 65 % of the
20
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0021.png
total increase in the share of energy from renewable sources between that
Member State's binding 2020 national target and its contribution to the 2030
target. By 2030, the indicative trajectory shall reach at least the Member State's
planned contribution. If a Member State expects to surpass its binding 2020
national target, its indicative trajectory may start at the level it is projected to
achieve. The Member States' indicative trajectories, taken together, shall add up to
the Union reference points in 2022, 2025 and 2027 and to the Union's binding
target of at least 32 % renewable energy in 2030. Separately from its contribution
to the Union target and its indicative trajectory for the purposes of this Regulation,
a Member State shall be free to indicate higher ambitions for national policy
purposes;
The Danish Parliament has agreed on the energy policy post 2020 in the policy
agreement of June 2018. With the agreement, the Parliament expects to reach an
overall renewables share of approximately 55 pct. in 2030.
In 2020 Denmark expects to reach an overall renewables share of 42 pct,
according to Denmarks Energy and Climate Outlook 2018 (DECO18)
11
. The
individual shares for electricity, district heating and transport are estimated to
79.6 pct., 73 pct. and 8.7 pct. respectively.
The Danish binding EU target for 2020 is 30 pct. Denmark plans to count the extra
12 percentage points as early effort towards the 2030 RES target. The new policy
agreement includes a number of new initiatives, described below, that will set the
path towards the approximately 55 pct. renewables share in 2030.
The indicative trajectory for the Danish contribution from 2020 and onwards is
displayed in figure 1. The estimation is indicative and entails great uncertainly.
Therefore, the actual renewables share may vary from this estimation.
11
Based on the EU methodology
21
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0022.png
Figure 1. Indicative trajectory for the share of energy from renewable sources in
gross final consumption compared to the minimum reference points
The indicative trajectory is based on the Danish energy agreement of 29 June
2018, in which funding has been allocated to set the course towards a Renewable
Energy share of approximately 55 pct. by 2030. Consequently, this is the Danish
expected contribution to the 2030 EU target, in accordance with Article 4 (a) 2 of
the Governance Regulation. However, as shown in Table 7 on p. 86, current
odelli g of the o se ue es of the E e g Ag ee e t, o l leads to a RE
share of 48 pct. by 2030 due to the fact that the modelling at this stage only
includes known, specific policies and measures in the Energy Agreement, and
where the effects can be quantified. Hence, figure 1 represents an indicative,
possible trajectory, where the remaining 7 percentage points are reached through
additional policies and measures that have not yet been specified and decided.
(ii) Estimated trajectories for the sectorial share of renewable energy in final
energy consumption from 2021 to 2030 in the electricity, heating and cooling, and
transport sector
Denmark has not at present set any individual objectives or targets for sectorial
shares of renewable energy. Subsequently, no policy based trajectories have been
set for individual renewables shares in various sectors.
However, as a result of the policy agreement from June 2018
–
that includes new
investment for renewables as well as a decision to phase out coal in the electricity
production sector in 2030
–
the renewables share in electricity consumption is
expected to exceed 100 pct. in 2030.
22
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0023.png
As for the district heating sector, it is the projection that at least 90 pct. of the
heating in the district heating sector will be based on other sources than fossil
fuels in 2030. Included in the policy package is annually 13.4 million EUR
earmarked for promotion of use of waste heat.
In addition, a reservation on an amount of 500 million DKK has been agreed for
the years 2020-2024
–
100 million DKK a year for the transport sector. The pool is
described to support green solutions in the transport sector. For the present there
is no further information on the pool.
(iii) Estimated trajectories by renewable energy technology that the Member State
projects to use to achieve the overall and sectorial trajectories for renewable
energy from 2021 to 2030 including expected total gross final energy consumption
per technology and sector in Mtoe and total planned installed capacity (divided by
new capacity and repowering) per technology and sector in MW
Denmark has not at present set any individual objectives or targets for individual
technologies to use to achieve the overall and sectorial trajectories. Denmark is
planning multi technology tenders for wind power and solar PV, and aim for
renewable energy without support well before 2030. With this approach targets
cannot be set for each technology.
The political framework for 2020 to 2030, agreed upon in June 2018, include 3
new offshore wind parks of a total of 2,400 MW. The three parks will each be
minimum 800 MW. The first is to be tendered in 2019 or 2020 and will have a
capacity of approximately 800 MW– the next two in 2021 and 2023 will each have
a capacity of at least 800 MW.
Since the cost of off-shore wind is expected to continue falling in the coming
years, it is agreed to gradually reduce the number of land based wind turbines
from approx. 4,300 today to maximum 1,850 in 2030. The production from land
based wind turbines is however still expected to increase since smaller existing
turbines will be replaced with larger ones with higher capacity.
Denmark has shared and discussed in the NSEC the estimated offshore renewable
trajectory, information on its national offshore deployment plans and best
practices in the design of offshore wind tenders.
Aggregating national offshore wind objectives and corresponding trajectories
amongst all NSEC countries results in an overall offshore wind trajectory of
approx. XX GW in the greater North Seas region for the year 2030.
(iv) Estimated trajectories on bioenergy demand, disaggregated between heat,
electricity and transport, and on biomass supply, by feedstocks and origin
23
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0024.png
(distinguishing between domestic production and imports). For forest biomass, an
assessment of its source and impact on the LULUCF sink
Denmark has not at present set any individual objectives or targets on bioenergy
demand, aggregated or disaggregated on sectors, imports etc. Therefore, no
trajectories have been set for the use of bioenergy.
(v) Where applicable, other national trajectories and objectives, including those
that are long-term or sectoral (e.g. share of renewable energy in district heating,
renewable energy use in buildings, renewable energy produced by cities, energy
communities and self-consumers, energy recovered from the sludge acquired
through the treatment of wastewater)
As for the district heating sector, it is the projection that at least 90 pct. of the
heating in the district heating sector will be based on other sources than fossil
fuels in 2030.
Denmark has not at present set any individual objectives or targets on bioenergy
demand, aggregated or disaggregated on sectors, imports etc. Therefore, no
trajectories have been set for the use of bioenergy.
2.2 Dimension Energy efficiency
(i) The elements set out in point (b) of Article 4
(1)The indicative national energy efficiency contribution to achieving the Union's
energy efficiency target of at least 32,5 % in 2030 as referred to in Article 1(1) and
Article 3(4) of Directive 2012/27/EU, based on either primary or final energy
consumption, primary or final energy savings, or energy intensity; expressed in
terms of absolute level of primary energy consumption and final energy
consumption in 2020, and in terms of absolute level of primary energy
consumption and final energy consumption in 2030, with an indicative trajectory
for that contribution from 2021 onwards; including the underlying methodology
and the conversion factors used)
Reduction of energy consumption through increased energy efficiency and energy
savings has been an important part of Danish energy policy since the 1970s, when
the oil crisis first focused on security of supply and import dependence. In the
meantime, climate change has also played a role in the desire to streamline and
reduce energy consumption in Denmark.
Denmark has therefore developed a great expertise in energy efficiency, which has
made it possible to keep energy consumption largely unchanged in spite of
significant economic growth over the last three decades.
24
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0025.png
Indicative national target for 2020
The indicative national target for the Danish gross energy consumption (primary
energy) and final energy consumption in 2020 corresponds to the energy
consumption in 2020 in the Danish Energy Agency's 2018 Energy and Climate
Outlook published in April 2018.
The Danish Energy and Climate Outlook 2018 is based on a frozen policy scenario,
where instruments and actions from the latest energy policy agreement of March
2012 and subsequent adjustments therein as well as new initiatives are included.
The Danish Energy Agency's Energy and Climate Outlook is based on a number of
overall economic assumptions (the production of the companies, private
consumption, fuel prices, etc.), a number of technology-specific assumptions
(what is the cost of different types of installations, what is their efficiency, etc.)
and assumptions as to what the energy market players will do when acting on
market terms.
The Danish gross energy consumption by 2020 is defined in the outlook as the
gross energy consumption excluding non-energy consumption of 707.2 PJ (16.89
Mtoe). This is a reduction of gross energy consumption by 16.9 per cent in 2020
compared to 2006.
The corresponding indicative target for final energy consumption (excluding
consumption for non-energy purposes) by 2020 is 615.5 PJ (14.70 Mtoe). This is a
reduction of 7.7 per cent compared to 2006.
Indicative national energy efficiency contribution to achieving the Unions energy
efficiency targets in 2030
The indicative national contribution for the Danish gross energy consumption
(primary energy) and final energy consumption in 2030 corresponds to the energy
consumption in 2030 in the Danish Energy Agency's 2018 Energy and Climate
Outlook published in April 2018 as well as the energy efficiency measures included
in the Energy Agreement from June 2018. The Energy Agreement from June 2018
includes energy efficiency measures in the period 2021-2024. An updated
contribution for the indicative national contribution for the Danish gross energy
consumption (primary energy) and final energy consumption in 2030 will be
included as a revised draft NECP and final NECP for the period 2021-2030 has to
be submitted in 2023 and 2024. An indicative trajectory for the contribution from
2021 and onwards will be included in the first NECP together with a more detailed
explanation of the underlying methodology and the conversion factors used.
25
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0026.png
The Danish gross energy consumption by 2030 is estimated to approx. 780 PJ (18,6
Mtoe).
The corresponding indicative contribution for final energy consumption (excluding
consumption for non-energy purposes) by 2030 is approx. 660 PJ (15,8 Mtoe).
(2) Cumulative amount of end use energy savings to be achieved over the period
2021-2030 under point (b) of Article 7(i) on the energy saving obligations of
Directive 2012/27/EU
The following is an outline of the Danish energy savings obligation based on the
current EED as well as the Danish energy policy agreement from 2012 as well as
the estimated end-use savings for 2021-2030 under Article 7 in the Directive
2012/27/EU
Energy Efficiency Obligation Scheme
Denmark will fulfil the obligations set out in Article 7 of Directive 2012/27/EU
exclusively by an energy efficiency obligation scheme. Since 2006, the network
and distribution companies in Denmark have been subject to energy saving
commitments via the obligation scheme. The latest agreement on the obligation is
from 16 December 2016 and sets out the overall savings obligation for 2020. In
2016-2020, network and distribution companies will ensure energy savings of 10.1
PJ per year of the final consumption of energy excl. transport.
According to Article 7 (1) in Directive 2012/27/EU, the Danish targets are
calculated as:
An annual target of 1.5%: 6.18 PJ
Savings by 2020 (7 x 1.5%): 43.23 PJ
Cumulative Savings 2014-2020 (28 x 1.5%): 172.93 PJ
The basis for calculations of the Danish target for 2020 pursuant to Article 7 is the
official Danish energy statistics 2012 published in November 2013. These data are
the basis for reporting to Eurostat.
According to Article 7 (1)(b) in , Directive 2012/27/EU [Version as amended in
accordance with proposal Com(2016)761] the Danish targets are calculated as:
An annual target for end use savings of 0.8%: 4.94 PJ
Savings by 2030 (10 x 4.94%): 49.4 PJ
Cumulative Savings 2021-2030 (55 x 4.94): 271.7 PJ
26
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0027.png
The basis for calculations of the Danish estimated cumulative amount of energy
savings to be achieved over the period 2021-2030 pursuant to Article 7 in the
revised Directive is the consumption in 2016 in the official Danish energy statistics
and the forecasted consumption for 2017 and 2018.
(3) The indicative milestones for 2030, 2040 and 2050, the domestically established
easura le progress i di ators a d their o tri utio s to the U io ’s e erg
efficiency targets as included in the roadmaps set out in the long-term renovation
strategies for the national stock of residential and non-residential buildings, both
public and private, in accordance with Article 2a of Directive 2010/31/EU on the
Energy Performance of Buildings
As far as buildings are concerned the energy agreement from June 2018 defines
the principle for setting the milestones rather than indicating the actual
milestones. The agreement specifies that the long term marginal cost of reducing
energy consumption in buildings should be seen in relation to the cost of
expanding the renewable energy supply. Setting the indicative milestones should
therefore be based on balancing long term cost of energy efficiency with the cost
of expanding renewable energy supply. This needs to be prepared before the
indicative milestones can be included in the NECP.
(4) The total floor area to be renovated or equivalent annual energy savings to be
achieved from 2021 to 2030 under Article 5 of Directive 2012/27/EU on the
exemplary role of public bodies' buildings
The energy savings to be achieved from 2021-2030 under article 5 of the EED are
expected to be calculated in 2019.
Below ,the energy savings to be achieved from 2014-2020 under article 5 of the
EED will be outlined.
Denmark has notified the Commission that Article 5 of the EED has been
implemented using the alternative approach involving the establishment of an
energy savings target expressed in MWh. The calculation of the target is based on
relevant extracts of the area from the Central Register of Buildings and Dwellings
(BBR) and the energy performance from the energy labeling scheme for central
government buildings. The energy savings to be achieved in 2020
is 148,192 MWh
in the period 2014-2020.
The a tual e e g o su ptio of the Da ish i ist ies a d the go e
e ts
own institutions, etc. is reported to a central database each year. Furthermore the
central database is divided into consumption of electricity, heat and water for the
Danish government building portfolio. The building area and number of full time
27
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0028.png
employees are also entered into the database hence displaying the absolute as
well as relative (to building area and employees) energy savings in institutions at
all levels within central government and affiliated institutions.
The database in addition covers energy consumption in buildings covered by the
circular on energy efficiency in state institutions No 9477 of 2 July 2014. In this
circular buildings that are not within the scope of Article 5 of the Energy Efficiency
Directive are also included (e.g. rented buildings and buildings belonging to
independent institutions).
In Denmark, there is a tradition of using a broad range of energy saving and
energy efficient methods, including behaviour modification. The alternative
approach is therefore closest to the methods that have previously been used for
central government buildings. Under the circular, the ministries are at liberty to
pursue the instruments most cost effective in their particular circumstances,
including deep renovations, behavioural measures etc., thus meeting their energy
savings target.
In 2016, a midway evaluation was carried out of the energy efficiency measure. In
the ministries and institutions all types of energy improvements are carried out,
such as:
- Lighting and appliances
- Building envelope
- Installations
- Energy supply
- Water savings
- Other measures, including the relocation or reduction of activities, energy
screening, behavioural campaigns and night energy consumption measuring.
(iii) Where applicable, other national objectives, including long-term targets or
strategies and sectorial targets and national objectives in areas such as energy
efficiency in the transport sector and with regard to heating and cooling
Energy-efficient public procurement (EED Article 6)
Danish circular on energy efficiency in state institutions No 9477 of 2 July 2014
impose a requirement for energy efficient public sector procurement including the
procurement of services where this is profitable based on an assessment of socio-
economic and environmental factors, etc. Furthermore, the government provides
28
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0029.png
general information on energy efficient procurement through the following
websites:
https://sparenergi.dk/offentlig/vaerktoejer/indkoebsanbefalinger
http://www.csr-indkob.dk
http://www.gronneindkob.dk/]
2.3 Dimension Energy security
(i) National objectives with regard to:
-
increasing the diversification of energy sources and supply from third
countries, the purpose of which may be to reduce energy import
dependency,
-
-
increasing the flexibility of the national energy system, and
addressing constrained or interrupted supply of an energy source, for the
purpose of improving the resilience of regional and national energy
systems, including a timeframe for when the objectives should be met;
Stable and reliable energy supply is considered a prerequisite for the Danish
society. The effectiveness and functioning of the economy, public organizations
and private households depend on a reliable energy supply. The transition of the
energy sectors towards increasing integration of renewable energy sources
demands integration of energy systems, increased international connections and
precise control of energy production and consumption. The development of
interconnection between subsectors and cross boarders is an objective targeting
an efficient use of fluctuating energy sources. Therefore both legislative and
governance measures are being implemented in order to promote further
integration internationally and intra sectorially. The international dimension is
vital to a small country like Denmark, linking Scandinavia to the continent, and the
North Sea to the Baltic Sea. The geographic situation gives Denmark extraordinary
conditions for import and export of energy, whether it is fossil fuels, biomass
transported by sea or electricity. Denmark supports further international
cooperation in regards to energy supply and further development of an open
market for electricity and natural gas.
29
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0030.png
Conventional power plants are being decommissioned or transformed into bio-
fueled plants, and diversification in both production and consumption is being
improved with an impact on both the natural gas and electricity systems. This
development demands further integration between subsectors and direct control
over local plants in order to balance the integrated systems. Therefore,
cybersecurity forms a priority in the energy sectors. Denmark recognises the
importance of cybersecurity in the energy sector as a strategic important issue to
address in the coming years.
Within both the natural gas sector and the electricity sector Denmark has the
objective to further develop the international cooperation on security of supply by
increasing physical interconnections and ensuring common understanding on risks
to supply. The Danish electricity system is undergoing a development comprising
an increasing amount of renewable energy production from mainly intermittent
wind and solar power sources, together with a decreasing central and decentral
power plant production capacity. This leads to an increasing dependency on
interconnectors to the neighbouring countries. The potential security issues are
being mitigated through regional cooperation in the Nordic region on authority
and TSO level. This cooperation aims at enhancing the operational cooperation in
case of crises by common exercising and knowledge sharing .
The Minister of Energy, Utilities and Climate has the overall responsibility for the
security of supply of electricity and natural gas in Denmark. The Minister also
determines the level of security of supply of electricity according to a law that
entered into force in 2018.The technical monitoring and maintenance of the
security of supply is ensured by the national TSO (Energinet). The TSO is
responsible for ensuring the presence of sufficient production or import and
maintaining security of supply together with the efficient utilization of the
coherent electricity supply system and natural gas system. The TSO is the
custodian for the national emergency plans within both the electricity and natural
gas sectors. These plans are coherent with the respective EU-Regulation
2017/1938 concerning measures to safeguard security of gas supply and
sectorspecific EU regulation.
In regards to the electricity security of supply, existing and planned
interconnectors contribute to an increased security of supply in Denmark. An
expansion of the electricity market to include greater overall consumption as well
as a wider portfolio of production technologies will ensure an increased security of
supply across borders.
Within the oil sector, Denmark is dependent on free movement of shipping in the
North Sea and the Baltic Sea and the international market. It is an objective for
30
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0031.png
Denmark to ensure international cooperation within this field. Therefore Denmark
is participating in international cooperation within the EU and the IEA with regards
to ensure sufficient oil-stocks
(ii) National objectives with regard to increasing: the diversification of energy
sources and supply from third countries for the purpose of increasing the resilience
of regional and national energy systems
Denmark does not have national objectives for reducing the energy import
dependency of third countries, since these dependencies are limited due to the
diversification of energy sources and the production of oil and gas within
Denmark. The dependency on import of coal is decreasing as a result of
integration of more renewable energy. However, the transition towards
integration of renewables leads to an increasing dependency on a well-functioning
market for electricity across the Nordic region. In regards to natural gas, Denmark
has been a net exporter of natural gas since the introduction of natural gas in
1984. The importance of natural gas in the Danish energy supply has been
decreasing in the last decade. This development is expected to continue in the
following years as natural gas is expected to cover respectively about 15 % in
2023, 14 % in 2023 and 12 % in 2030 of the total Danish energy mix. The figures
include biogas injected into the gas pipeline system.
Historically, Denmark has been dependent on third countries like
China, India, the
United States, Australia, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa
in regards to coal. The
power plants have been able to produce full load substituting coal with oil, making
the dependency of coal less critical. In recent years
the political decision on
moving towards an energy system with an increasing part of renewable energy
has made the energy system increasingly independent of coal.
(iii) Where applicable, national objectives with regard to reducing energy import
dependency from third countries, for the purpose of increasing the resilience of
regional and national energy systems
Denmark currently does not have such objectives.
(iv) National objectives with regard to increasing the flexibility of the national
energy system, in particular by means of deploying domestic energy sources,
demand response and energy storage
Denmark currently does not have such objectives. However, the Danish
Government has announced that by 2030 Denmark can have more than 1 million
green cars, a new gas strategy and a roadmap for smart energy, as well as
31
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0032.png
significant increase of heat pumps in heating sectors of Denmark. This is expected
to provide a basis for increasing flexibility through increased demand response
and energy storages.
2.4 Dimension Internal energy market
2.4.1 Electricity interconnectivity
The level of electricity interconnectivity that the Member State aims for in 2030 in
consideration of the electricity interconnection target for 2030 of at least 15%,
with a strategy with the level from 2021 onwards defined in close cooperation with
affected Member States, taking into account the 2020 interconnection target of
10% and the following indicators of the urgency of action:
(1)
Price differential in the wholesale market exceeding an indicative threshold
of €/MWh et ee Me er States, regio s or iddi g zo es;
(2)
Nominal transmission capacity of interconnectors below 30% of their peak
load;
(3)
Nominal transmission capacity of interconnectors below 30% of installed
renewable generation.
Each new interconnector shall be subject to a socioeconomic and environmental
cost-benefit analysis and implemented only if the potential benefits outweigh the
costs;
De a k s u e t i te o e ti it is at . p t. ased o the E e g U io
Fa tsheet De a k f o the Eu opea Co
issio . The i te o e ti it le el is
calculated as a ratio between import interconnection and net generation
capacities of the country (i.e. the 2017 value is the ratio between simultaneous
import interconnection capacity and net generating capacity in the country at 11
January 2017, 19:00 pm as resulted from ENTSO-E Winter Outlook 2016/2017)
Given the high interconnectivity level, Denmark has no specific objectives for a
certain future level and consequently no strategy for reaching any targets that are
a elo De a k s i te o e ti it le el. Pote tial e i te o e to s a e
considered in coordination with other Member States taking into account the
overall socioeconomic value.
Denmark is involved in the NSEC work on concrete concepts for joint offshore
projects or cluster projects. The NSEC has identified a list of potential areas and
projects in the region, where joint projects could be most beneficial. These
include: (1) IJmuiden Ver offshore wind farm to UK, (2) CGS IJmuiden Ver
–
Norfolk, (3) COBRA Cable, (4) DE offshore wind farm connected to NL and (5)
North Seas Wind Power Hub.
32
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0033.png
The NSEC is working on developing concrete concepts for the implementation of
selected projects from the above list.
2.4.2 Energy transmission infrastructure
(i) Key electricity and gas transmission infrastructure projects, and where relevant,
modernisation projects, that are necessary for the achievement of objectives and
targets under the five dimensions of the Energy Union Strategy
There are no specific projects necessary for a certain interconnectivity target.
However, 5 projects are currently on the list of Projects of Common Interest,
based on their positive socio-economic value and are about to be established.
- Viking Link
–
Interconnector between Denmark and UK
- Endrup
–
Niebüll
–
Interconnector between Denmark and Germany
- Kassø
–
Audorf
–
Upgrading of existing interconnector between Denmark and
Germany
- Kriegers Flak Combined Grid Solution
–
Interconnector between Denmark and
Germany which combines an interconnector with the grid connection of offshore
wind farms.
- Baltic Pipe
–
Gas interconnector between Denmark and Poland
With regards to gas infrastructure, the Danish TSO -Energinet - and the Polish TSO
- Gaz-System
–
have in 2018 taken the final investment decision to establish the.
Baltic Pipe Project. The project will make it possible to transport up to 10 BCM
Norwegian gas to Poland thorugh the Danish gas infrastructure and connect the
Danish and Polish gas markets.
These projects are important in terms of fulfilling the dimensions of the Energy
Union such as a fully-integrated internal energy market with security, solidarity
and trust. The majority of projects is based upon the need to ensure well-
functioning energy markets, while the need for a number of projects is also based
upon the need for security of supply.
(ii) Where applicable, main infrastructure projects envisaged other than Projects of
Common Interest (PCIs)
The Nordic TSOs are currently investigating several cross-border investments in
the Nordics. Corridors between Western Denmark and Norway as well as Eastern
Denmark and Sweden are under investigation. In both cases some of the
33
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0034.png
interconnectors are about to reach the end of their expected lifetime and
decisions about reinvestments have to be made.
The Dogger Bank project is currently a development project being investigated
jointly by the Danish TSO, Energinet, and the Dutch-German TSO, TenneT, along
with its project partners. The Dogger Bank project would consist of an artificial
island which could serve as a hub for offshore wind power production and then
connect the island to the European mainland using interconnectors.
2.4.3 Market integration
(i) National objectives related to other aspects of the internal energy market such
as increasing system flexibility in particular related to the promotion of
competitively determined electricity prices in line with relevant sectoral law,
market integration and coupling, aimed at increasing the tradeable capacity of
existing interconnectors, smart grids, aggregation, demand response, storage,
distributed generation, mechanisms for dispatching, re-dispatching and
curtailment, and real-time price signals, including a timeframe for when the
objectives shall be met;
Market coupling in the wholesale day-ahead and intraday timeframe is well-
advanced in Denmark. There is also a common Nordic market for manual
Frequency Restoration Reserves (mFRR).Denmark continuously works on
developing markets for ancillary services. These markets are partly integrated
with neighbouring countries or are in the process hereof, as part of the
implementation of the electricity balancing guideline and the corresponding
timeframe.
With regards to real-time price signals, Denmark has just updated a national law
12
,
specifying that the Danish TSO shall, as far as possible, procure all energy and non-
energy services that are necessary for security of supply through market-based
mechanisms. The demand for all services has to be published annually. In cases
with limited competition, the TSO shall analyse whether changes to the product
definitions and procurement process could increase competition. The law aims at
increasing transparency, creating price signals for all services, including non-
frequency ancillary services, and thus enabling more market participants,
including DER, to participate in the delivery of these services.
(ii) Where applicable, national objectives related to the non-discriminatory
participation of renewable energy, demand response and storage, including via
12
LOV nr 704 af 08/06/2018
34
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0035.png
aggregation, in all energy markets including a timeframe for when the objectives
should be met
The Danish electricity market is open for participation from renewable energy,
demand response and storage, including via aggregation. The Danish TSO is by law
required to contribute with its activities to the best possible conditions for
competitions in the electricity market.
Renewable energy producers (except for household-scale plants) are obliged to
sell their production into the market via balancing responsible parties. The
ancillary services markets are open to participation from renewable energy as
well. Many wind power plants, for example, offer downward regulation into the
market.
Denmark foresees an increasingly important role for demand-side resources in
contributing to an integrated, market-based and flexible energy system. A large
number of electrical boilers are already installed and may offer their service in all
markets from spot to primary reserves. To encourage the participation of
aggregated demand response, Denmark is constantly seeking to improve market
regulations with the aim to reduce barriers for decentralised market participants.
(iii) Where applicable, national objectives with regard to ensuring that consumers
participate in the energy system and benefit from self-generation and new
technologies, including smart meters
Denmark has an overall objective of rolling out smart meters to all consumers by
2020. In the future, this will enable consumers to participate in the energy
markets through aggregation. The energy agreement of 2018 also underlines the
objective to increase the utilisation of data and digital solutions and create a smart
energy system. This is also in line with the Danish Governments smart grid
strategy of 2013.
It is possible for consumers to self-generate electricity under defined rules for net
metering. As such, however, self-generation is no particular objective for
Denmark, as the goal is to provide consumers with an overall efficient and secure
electricity system.
(iv) National objectives with regard to ensuring electricity system adequacy, as well
as for the flexibility of the energy system with regard to renewable energy
production, including a timeframe for when the objectives are to be met
Denmark has one of the highest security of supply levels in Europe. It is the
go e
e t s lea a itio s to keep a high le el of se u
ity of supply also in the
35
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0036.png
future when integrating more renewable energy into the Danish electricity
system.
(v) Where applicable, national objectives to protect energy consumers and improve
the competitiveness of the retail energy sector
In general, Denmark aims at highly competitive retail markets. Danish Utilities are
obliged to roll-out remotely readable smart meters by the end of 2020 to all end
users. The full roll-out of smart meters is expected to change the retail business
over the coming years, and Denmark will closely monitor the development.
Although Denmark does not have specific national objectives, consumer
protection and competitiveness of the retail sector are addressed in many policies
and measures as described below.
2.5 Dimension Research, innovation and competitiveness
(i) National objectives and funding targets for public and, where available, private
research and innovation relating to the Energy Union including, if appropriate, a
timeframe for when the objectives are to be met.
As a pa ti ipa t i the i te atio al oope atio Missio I o atio De a k
has committed to double its public funding to research and development to 580
mio. DKK in 2020. The Danish parliament has recently reached a new energy
agreement with the target of spending 1 billion DKK on energy research and
development by 2024.
Denmark does not have any funding targets for private research and innovation
relating to the energy union.
(ii) Where available, national 2050 objectives related to the promotion of clean
energy technologies and, where appropriate, national objectives including long-
term targets for the deployment of low-carbon technologies, including for
decarbonising energy- and carbon-intensive industrial sectors and, where
applicable, for related carbon transport and storage infrastructure
The Danish Government along with all political parties of the Parliament will work
towards net zero emissions by 2050 at the latest, in accordance with the Paris
Agreement. This has to be achieved in a cost-effective way.
Denmark does not have any target for deployment of specific technologies.
(iii) Where applicable, national objectives with regard to competitiveness
Denmark does not have any formal national objectives with regard to
competitiveness.
36
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0037.png
However, the Danish Government has published a national export strategy for the
energy sector. The aim is to double the exports of Danish energy technology and
services from 2015 to 2030. In order to achieve this, Danish solutions has to be
innovative and competitive on the growing global market for new energy
solutions.
37
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0038.png
3. POLICIES AND MEASURES
3.1 Dimension Decarbonisation
3.1.1 GHG emissions and removals
(i) Policies and measures to achieve the target set under Regulation (EU)
2018/842
13
as referred to in point 2.1.1 and policies and measures to comply with
Regulation (EU) 2018/841
14
, covering all key emitting sectors and sectors for the
enhancement of removals, with an outlook to the long-term vision and goal to
become a low emission economy and achieving a balance between emissions and
removals in accordance with the Paris Agreement
Existing policies and measures (implemented or adopted)
De a k s i ple e ted a d adopted
as of 1. January 2018
15
(cf. the definition of
e isti g policies
and measures with effect on greenhouse gas emissions
epo ted i
i De a k s Se e th Natio al Co
u i atio a d Thi d
Biennial Report under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC)
16
and under the EU Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (MMR)
17
are shown in Table 1.
The policies and measures listed in Table 1 include policies and measures, which
will contribute to the achievement of the target set under Regulation 2018/842
[ESR: Effort Sharing Regulation]
18
as referred to in 2.1.1, and policies and
measures, which will contribute to compliance with Regulation 2018/841[LULUCF:
Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry]
19
. Most of the policies and measures
13
Effort Sharing Regulation
LULUCF
14
16
NC7/BR3:
https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/8057126_Denmark-NC7-BR3-2-NC7-DNK-Denmarks-
NC7-and-BR3_1January2018-12MB.pdf
MMR:
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2013:165:0013:0040:EN:PDF
ESR or Effort Sharing Regulation: REGULATION (EU) 2018/842 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE
COUNCIL of 30 May 2018 on binding annual greenhouse gas emission reductions by Member States from
2021 to 2030 contributing to climate action to meet commitments under the Paris Agreement and amending
Regulation (EU) No 525/2013
LULUCF-regulation: REGULATION (EU) 2018/841 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 30
May 2018 on the inclusion of greenhouse gas emissions and removals from land use, land use change and
38
17
18
19
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0039.png
related to energy consumption (names starting with TD, EN, BU, TR or HO
20
) will
have an effect on both greenhouse gas emissions under Regulation
2018/842[ESR]
21
and CO
2
emissions under Directive 2003/87/EC[EU ETS
22
]
23
. The
list covers all key emitting sectors and sectors for the enhancement of removals.
Fu the i fo atio o De a k s li ate poli i ge e al a d the poli ies a d
measures listed in Table 1 is included in Annex 1
The effects of the existing measures as of April 2018
a e i luded i the ith
e isti g easu es g ee house gas p oje tio s e a io, the so-called
WEM-
projection scenario, reported in Chapter 4.
forestry in the 2030 climate and energy framework, and amending Regulation (EU) No 525/2013 and
Decision No 529/2013/EU
20
TD: Taxes and Duties, EN: Energy sector (except BU, TR and HO), BU: Business sector (energy consumption), TR:
Transport sector (energy consumption), HO: Household sector (energy consumption).
In the period 2013-2020 the measures will also have an effect on greenhouse gas emission under Decision
406/2009 [ESD: Decision No 406/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009 on
the effo t of Me e States to edu e thei g ee house gas e issio s to eet the Co
u it s g ee house
gas emission reduction commitments up to 2020].
EU ETS: Directive 2003/87/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 October 2003 establishing a
scheme for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Community
For example TR-10 (Electrification of parts of the infrastructure), which will
–
everything else being equal -
decrease emissions from the use of diesel under ESR, but potentially increase emissions under ETS, if not
counteracted by an increase in the use of renewable energy in electricity production.
39
21
22
23
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0040.png
Table 1
O er ie of De ark’s portfolio of e isti g li ate rele a t poli ies a d
measures (implemented and adopted)
40
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0041.png
Additional policies and measures (planned as well as adopted, but not yet
implemented)
De
a k s additio al
24
policies and measures with effect on greenhouse gas
emissions are shown in Table 2. The list of additional measures includes both the
additional measures adopted with the Energy Agreement of 29 June 2018 (i.e.
adopted, but not yet implemented and not yet included in the WEM-projection
scenario
25
) and the additional measures proposed by the government in its
Climate and Air Proposal of 9 October 2018 (i.e. planned until adopted, allocation
of financial resources and/or mobilisation of human resources
26
). Chapter 5
elaborates and reports on the ex-ante estimated effects of additional decided and
planned measures. On the basis of the ex-ante estimated effects of the additional
measures, under the planned policies and measures, a projected development of
the g ee house gas e issio s a d e o als PDP-PAMs
27
has been elaborated
and reported in chapter 5. Further information on the 2018 Energy Agreement
and the 2018 Climate and Air Proposal is included in Annex 1.
24
As of 9 October 2018 in
the Go e
WEM: With Existing Measures
e t s Cli ate a d Ai p oposal
25
26
'planned policies and measures' are options under discussion and having a realistic chance of being adopted
and implemented after the date of submission of the national plan or progress report;
PDP-PAMs
: Projections of the Development of the GHG emissions and removals under the Planned Policies
And Measures cf. Governance Regulation, Annex I, Part 1, Section 5.1(i). It should be noted that in addition to
the measures planned with the Climate and Air Proposal of 9 October 2018 also the measures adopted with
the Energy Agreement of 29 June 2018 are included in the PDP-PAMs-scenario as the effects of these
measures are not included in the April 2018 WEM-scenario.
41
27
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0042.png
Table 2
O er ie of De ark’s portfolio of
additional and planned climate
relevant policies and measures
Outlook to the long-term vision
As an outlook to the long-term vision and goal to become a low emission economy
and achieving a balance between emissions and removals in accordance with the
Paris Agreement,
De a k s ta gets u de Regulatio
2018/842 (ESR) and
Regulation2018/841 (LULUCF) are to be seen as steps in 2021-2030 towards the
Go e
e t s lo g-term
objective for Denmark in 2050, which is to become a
climate-neutral society by 2050, which means that Denmark will absorb at least as
much greenhouse gas as it emits.
The Energy Agreement outlining De
a k s e e g poli
, reached by the
government with all political parties in the Parliament on 29 June 2018, includes
the following long-term elements until 2050:
42
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0043.png
1. Following from the agreement significant investments to reach the
ambition of a low-emission society by 2050 will be made.
2. The green transition takes place in the energy sector and through the
Danish climate policy. In this context, the parties agreed that Denmark will
work towards net zero emissions in accordance with the Paris agreement
and for a net-zero-emission target in the EU and Denmark by 2050.
3. Finally, the parties note that a long-term renovation strategy for existing
buildings is being developed. This strategy will include indicative
milestones for building renovation for 2030, 2040 and 2050.
As highlighted i the go e
e t s li ate a d ai pollutio p oposal
Together
for a greener future
f o
O to e
, it as also
agreed in the Energy
Agreement to increase funding for energy and climate research to DKK 1 billion in
2024 in support of the course towards a climate-neutral society by 2050.
Specifically, the government will initiate research into carbon sequestration and
storage. This creates the basis for even more reductions.
Further information will
e i luded i De a k s lo g-term
low emission strategy
to be submitted to the European Commission by 1 January 2020 pursuant to
Article 14 of the Governance Regulation.
ii) Where relevant, regional cooperation in this area
One fora in where Denmark participates in regional cooperation is the Nordic
Council of Ministers. The Nordic Council of Ministers was founded in 1971. Despite
the generic name, it actually consists of several councils. Regional cooperation in
the area of climate change takes place through the Nordic Council of Ministers for
the Environment and Climate (MR-MK)
28
. The Council of Ministers for the
Environment and Climate (MR-MK) is responsible for the Nordic inter-
governmental co-operation on environmental issues, including on climate change.
Its remit includes preserving and enhancing the quality of the environment and of
life in the Region and exerting influence on regional and international co-
28
http://www.norden.org/en/nordic-council-of-ministers/council-of-ministers/nordic-council-of-ministers-for-
the-environment-and-climate-mr-mk/nordic-council-of-ministers-for-the-environment-and-climate
43
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0044.png
operation
29
. Currently, in MR-MK Denmark is represented by the Minister for
Environment and Food when environment is on the agenda and by the Minister
for Energy, Utilities and Climate when climate is on the agenda.
The Nordic Council of Ministers for the Environment and Climate (MR-MK) has a
Committee of Senior Officials for the Environment and Climate (EK-MK), which
prepares and follows up on the work of the council and is responsible for ensuring
that the Environmental Action Plan is implemented. The Nordic Committee of
Senior Officials for the Environment and Climate (EK-MK) has set up a Working
Committee (AU) consisting of representatives of national environment agencies,
to plan and co-ordinate its activities. Currently, the Danish Environmental
Protection Agency represents Denmark in MR-MK and AU.
Working Groups under MR-MK/EK-MK/AU relevant to regional cooperation on
climate change and greenhouse gas emissions reduction are:
Climate and Air Pollution Group (KoL): The work of the Climate
and Air Pollution Group supports the Nordic objectives of reducing serious
climate change and preventing the impact of air pollution on the
environment, ecosystems and human health. The outcome is a series of
publications
30
.
The Nordic Council of Ministers' Environmental Co-operation funds
projects whose aims are in keeping with the Nordic Environment Action
Plan 2013–2018
31
and/or the programme of the annual Presidency. At
least three Nordic countries must take part in the project, which must
generate clear Nordic synergy. The Climate and Air Pollution Group (KOL)
invites applications for contributions to Nordic projects that support the
implementation of the Nordic Environmental Action Programme and the
priorities of the Climate and Air Pollution Group. The Climate and Air
Pollution Group is working to limit and prevent serious climate change and
transboundary air pollution, as well as to limit and prevent air pollution
from causing harm to human health
32
.
29
The most recent outcomes are available here:
http://www.norden.org/en/nordic-council-of-ministers/council-
of-ministers/nordic-council-of-ministers-for-the-environment-and-climate-mr-mk/strategy
http://www.norden.org/en/nordic-council-of-ministers/council-of-ministers/nordic-council-of-ministers-for-
the-environment-and-climate-mr-mk/institutes-co-operative-bodies-and-working-groups/working-
groups/climate-and-air-pollution-group-kol/publications-and-reports
http://norden.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:701877/FULLTEXT01.pdf
http://www.norden.org/en/nordic-council-of-ministers/council-of-ministers/nordic-council-of-ministers-for-
the-environment-and-climate-mr-mk/institutes-co-operative-bodies-and-working-groups/working-
44
30
31
32
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0045.png
The Nordic working group for global climate negotiations (NOAK): The
group's overarching goal is to contribute to an ambitious and effective
implementation of the UNFCCC and its Paris Agreement, with a Nordic
perspective. The outcome is a series of publications
33
.
In addition there are also Working Groups under the Nordic Council of Ministers
for Sustainable Growth (MR-VÆKST)
34
and its Committee of Senior Officials, which
are relevant to regional cooperation on climate change and greenhouse gas
emissions reduction. Information on the cooperation through these working
groups is included under the relevant sections on the other dimensions of the
Energy Union.
(iii) Without prejudice to the applicability of state aid rules, financing measures,
including Union support and the use of Union funds, in this area at national level,
where applicable
Renewable energy sources are promoted with economic measures, including use
of energy and CO
2
taxes on fossil fuels and through the Public Service Obligation
Schemes (PSO), which have been a supplement to the price of electricity paid by
all consumers until 2017. The Danish PSO levy will be phased out during a period
of 5 years (2017-2022), and the financing of support to renewables will gradually
shift to the State Budget.
3.1.2 Renewable energy
(i) Policies and measures to achieve the national contribution to the binding 2030
Union target for renewable energy and trajectories as referred to in point (a)(2)
Article 4, and, where applicable or available, the elements referred to in point 2.1.2
including sector- and technology-specific measures
35
.
groups/climate-and-air-pollution-group-kol/the-climate-and-air-pollution-group2019s-project-funding-in-
2018
33
http://www.norden.org/en/nordic-council-of-ministers/council-of-ministers/nordic-council-of-ministers-for-
the-environment-and-climate-mr-mk/institutes-co-operative-bodies-and-working-groups/working-
groups/the-nordic-working-group-for-global-climate-negotiations-noak/publications-and-reports
The Nordic countries work together on business, energy and regional policies in order to promote continued
positive growth in the Region. The Nordic Council of Ministers for Sustainable Growth consists of ministers
responsible for business, energy and regional policy.
When planning these measures, Member States shall take into account the end of life of existing installations
and the potential for repowering.
45
34
35
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0046.png
Denmark will in the coming period from 2020 to 2030 continue the path towards a
climate neutral society by 2050. With the new initiatives outlined in the June
political agreement, Denmark has allocated funding that sets a course towards a
RE share of approximately 55 % by 2030.
Denmark will in the coming years significantly expand its capacity of renewable
energy. In the electricity sector new capacity is primarily expected to be solar PV
and wind, but also solid biomass will play an important role in the conversion of
the remaining central power plants still operating on coal.
New technology neutral tenders for wind and solar PV will be conducted in 2018
and 2019, whereas further RES technologies will be added in the technology
neutral tenders conducted from 2020-2024. Tenders for offshore wind has been
conducted and contracts signed for the first 400 MW to start production in 2019,
and 350 MW to start production in 2020 and 600 MW to start production in 2021.
Additional tenders for three offshore wind parks of a total of at least 2,400 MW
have also been decided. The decision rests upon the prerequisites mentioned in
section 1.1.
To support the continuant renewable capacity increase, Denmark will implement
new financial support schemes for a range of technologies as described under
point iii) below.
The production and consumption of renewables go hand in hand. Therefore
Denmark wants to ensure better incentives for use of renewable energy over
fossil alternatives. Denmark is phasing out the public service obligation originally
put on the electricity bill to finance support for renewables. At the same time,
the parties of the 2018 Energy Agreement agreed to reduce the electrical
heating tax by .152 DKK/kWh (2018 prices), effective from 2021. Thus the
electricity heating tax will be reduced from .307 DKK/kWh to .155 DKK/kWh
(2018 prices). The tax reduction constitutes a follow-up on the
Agreement on
Business and Entrepreneur Initiatives.
This initiative will make the tax on electrical heat more balanced in relation to the
tax on fossil fuels for space heating. The reduction of the electrical heating tax
promotes the green transition in the heating sector by increasing the use of
individual heat pumps and heat pumps in district heating systems. It also
increases the incentive for utilising surplus heat.
As a result of the shift from fossil heating to electrical heating, the tax reduction
contributes to reducing carbon emissions in non-quota sectors. It will also make
46
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0047.png
electrical heat more attractive than wood-burning stoves, thereby lowering
particle emissions
. This means that electricity produced on RE-sources will become more
competitive with other energy sources.
The parties of the 2018 Energy Agreement agree to work for a modernised heating
sector where district heating plants and consumers have the freedom to make
their own decisions on future investments, thereby improving access to green and
cheap heating for businesses and consumers. The regulatory bindings for
producers of district heating on the choice of fuels will be terminated in the
smaller district heating areas from 1 January 2019. It is expected to leave way for
more renewable heating as a substitute for natural gas. As well a planned stop to
new consumer commitments in the form of e.g. connection obligations will give
individual consumers freedom to choose their own heating solution, which as well
is expected to lead to more consumers choosing renewable options, as these have
been made more competitive.
In transport, according to present Danish legislation, suppliers must blend at least
5.75 pct. of biofuels in the transport fuel they put on the market. From January 1,
2020, they must blend in at least 0.9 pct. of advanced biofuels.
(ii) Where relevant, specific measures for regional cooperation, as well as as an
option, the estimated excess production of energy from renewable sources which
could be transferred to other Member States in order to achieve the national
contribution and trajectories referred to in point 2.1.2
Denmark has entered a cooperation agreement with Germany which will result in
statistical transfers from Denmark to Germany, corresponding to the electricity
production from 50 MW solar PV financially supported by Germany.
Denmark cooperates with other European and non-European countries on
renewable energy in a number of fora. The European policy fora include CA-RES
(RES in EU), BEMIP (RES and other topics in countries around the Baltic Sea), North
Seas Energy Cooperation (Offshore wind in the North Sea), and Nordic council of
ministers (RES and other topics in the Nordic countries).
On cooperation regarding renewable gas, the Danish TSO, Energinet, issues so-
called biomethane certificates for every MWh of biomethane injected into the
natural gas grid. Upon request, certificates are issued to biogas producers serving
as documentation for the amount of biogas fed into the grid. In order to receive
certificates, each producer must register with a specific database operated by
47
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0048.png
Energinet. Certificates can be traded across member states, but at present, the
renewable share is counted towards the national Danish renewables target.
Denmark works in the NSEC to coordinate the timing of tenders, to exchange best
practices on the design for offshore wind support schemes and to identify, where
possible, common principles as well as possible options for alignment of support.
As regards timing of tenders, Denmark regularly shares information regarding its
national tender schedule with the other NSEC countries. NSEC countries collect
and regularly update each other on their respective national tender schedules
with the aim to identify possible overlaps in time and to enable for a most
continuous tender pipeline across the North Seas region. Denmark is ready to take
into account, amongst other criteria and where possible, this overview of tender
schedules in its future tender planning to avoid unnecessary overlaps and to
provide a steady capacity pipeline to involved stakeholders without stop and go
cycles.
(ii) Where relevant, specific measures for regional cooperation, as well as, as an
option, the estimated excess production of energy from renewable sources which
could be transferred to other member States in order to achieve the national
contribution and trajectories referred to in point 2.1.2
Nordic co-operation on Renewable Energy
The Nordic countries make considerable efforts to develop and increase the use of
renewable energy, aiming to diversify the energy system and to be less dependent
on import of energy sources such as fossil fuels , and to reduce the CO
2
emissions.
The Working Group for Renewable Energy (AGFE)
–
consisting of experts from the
Ministries and energy authorities in the five Nordic countries
–
supports the
Nordic countries' policy and development work in renewable energy sector by
exchanging information and enhancing the collaboration between Nordic
countries. In addition, AGFE disseminate information about relevant projects
commissioned by AGFE tackling different issues on renewable energy in the
Nordics. Most recently AGFE has looked at: renewable energy system support in
the Nordics, how new EU sustainability criteria for biomass will affect the Nordics
and finally, an assessment of the emerging trend of distributed electricity
production and self-consumption.
AGFE aims to strengthen Nordic added value through projects that would usually
occur nationally, but where positive effects are created through a Nordic joint
effort. The group works to develop and manifest Nordic collaboration, and
48
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0049.png
thereby increase Nordic competencies and competitiveness. AGFE also strives to
develop Nordic perspectives on emerging policies and regulations within EU. Some
of AGFE's recent activities are listed below:
In 2018, AGFE initiated a study on Distributed energy production and self-
consumption in the Nordics. The aim of the study is to review the current situation
and future prospect of decentralized energy production and the transition where
consumers such as households are becoming also producers. The regulations and
policies in the Nordic countries concerning distributed electricity production and
self-consumption will be discussed, and barriers to a sound development will be
identified. This study will provide useful information for policy makers and other
stakeholders and will contribute to fulfil coming requirements according to the
revised EU directive on renewable energy (REDII).
AGFE works for enhanced Nordic co-operation on implementing the current EU
renewable energy directive (REDI) to 2020 as well as preparing for the revised
directive (REDII) that take effect from 2020.
As a set of new forest biomass sustainability criteria were proposed in RED II,
AGFE in 2017 commissioned a study on the emerging Bioenergy Sustainability
Poli a d its possi le i pa ts e titled;
A Nordic analysis of the proposed EU
poli fo ioe e g sustai a ilit .
This work contributed to the process of
revising the Directive and increasing the knowledge of its impact on the bioenergy
sector in the Nordic region.
I
AGFE o
issio ed a stud ; Ne Ga epla –
RES Support in the
No di s ith the pu pose to i estigate the i pa t of the e ised State Aid
Guidelines on current Nordic support schemes designed to promote renewable
energy. The study contributed to the discussions regarding the design of Nordic
support schemes.
(iii) Specific measures on financial support, where applicable including Union
support and the use of Union funds, for the promotion of the production and use of
energy from renewable sources in electricity, heating and cooling, and transport
Electricity from wind power and solar PV
Denmark has conducted tenders of support for offshore wind parks and signed
contracts for 400 MW to start production in 2019, 350 MW to start production in
2020 and 600 MW to start production in 2021. Additional tenders for three
offshore wind parks of at least 800 MW each have been decided in the policy
agreement of June 2018.
49
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0050.png
Denmark will arrange technology neutral tenders of support for wind power and
solar PV in 2018 and 2019, where the installations are expected to start
production in 2020 and 2021, and a tender in 2018 for solar PV installations
smaller than 1 MW. The policy agreement of June 2018 includes further
technology neutral tenders in the period 2020-2024, which among other things
also include wave and hydropower technologies.
The June 2018 political agreement also include a reserve of 400 million DKK in
2025 and 500 million DKK annually for further efforts from 2026 to promote
renewable energy.
Denmark is also preparing specific support schemes for wind turbines with a
testing purpose from 2018-2024.
In the NSEC, Denmark also contributes to the work of analysing and developing
options for further mobilisation of investment capital for joint projects, for
instance through EU funds such as EFSI and CEF as well as institutional investors.
Such joint projects could be cross-border projects for renewable energy in
accordance with the CEF proposal.
Promotion of the use of electricity
Denmark has some of the highest consumption taxes on electricity in the EU. As
the renewables share in electricity steadily increases, the Danish Parliament
wishes to improve incentives for the use of electricity over other types of energy,
especially in the heating sector. For that purpose it is agreed gradually to reduce
the electricity taxes in the period from 2019-2025.
The tax on electricity for heating purposes will be reduced from 4.1 EUR cent/kWh
to 2.1 EUR cent/kWh from year 2021. The general electricity tax will be reduced
from 12.3 EUR cent/kWh today to 10.4 EUR cent/kWh in 2025. For certain types of
businesses the electricity tax will be reduced to the EU-minimum level.
Going forward, a special task force will be set up with the purpose to analyze if the
present tariffs and tax regime can be optimized to better support demand side
management.
Biogas
The use of biogas for certain purposes is supported financially. More specifically,
end-users are eligible for different types of direct grants when biogas is used to
produce electricity or heat, upgraded to biomethane, used as a fuel in the
transport sector or used in industrial processes.
50
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0051.png
Under current national legislation, the support schemes do not contain a specific
expiry date. Approval by the EU under EU state aid legislation is, however, limited
to 2023 for the support schemes covering electricity generation and upgrading,
and 2026 for the schemes covering the remaining purposes.
The policy agreement of June 2018 include funding for 32 million EUR per year
over 20 years to continue support for biogas and other types of green gas.
Electricity and heat from solid biomass
The electricity production from the use of solid biomass is supported with a fixed
premium of 2 EUR cent/kWh. The scheme runs for 10 years until 2019 and covers
existing and new biomass CHP plants. The fixed premium scheme, in combination
with tax exemption on biomass fuels for heat production, has been a strong driver
in recent years for the fuel switch from coal and gas.
The policy agreement of June 2018 establishes the future support system after
April 1, 2019.
There are in total 3 support schemes:
1)
2)
Existing non depreciated installations will continue with a fixed premium of 2
EUR cent/kWh in the entire depreciation period.
Depreciated installation will be supported by a fixed premium calculated on
basis of the difference in operating cost in using biomass compared to an
alternative fossil reference.
For new installations after April 1, 2019 a grant pool is established, which
would give the possibility of aid for new capacity for the production of
electricity using biomass, biogas and other green gasses after application.
3)
The latter two new schemes are to be notified to the European Commission.
Transport
In the Energy policy agreement from June 2018 there has been made a reservation
on an amount of 500 million DKK for the years 2020-2024
–
100 million DKK a year
for the transport sector. The pool shall be used to support green solutions in the
transport sector. The specific initiatives will be developed further.
Furthermore, as an element in the Agreement on business and entrepreneurial
initiatives of 12 November 2017, there has been made a reservation on 140
million DKK to support the production of advanced biofuel. It is yet to be decided
how these 140 million DKK can support the production of advanced biofuel.
51
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0052.png
Heating and Cooling
From 2020 13.4 million EUR/year is earmarked for promotion of use of waste
heat.
(iv) Where applicable, the assessment of the support for electricity from
renewable sources that Member States have to carry out pursuant to Article 6 (4)
of the Directive (EU) 2018/? on the promotion of the use of energy from
renewable sources.
The assessment has not yet been made in Denmark.
(v) Specific measures to introduce one or more contact points, streamline
administrative procedures, provide information and training, and facilitate the
uptake of power purchase agreements
Summary of the policies and measures under the enabling framework
Member States have to put in place pursuant to Articles 21(6) and Article
22(5) of Directive (EU) 2018/X on the promotion of the use of energy from
renewable sources] to promote and facilitate the development of renewable
self-consumption and renewable energy communities
The administrative procedures regarding permit granting for off-shore wind has
been simplified in recent years by the establishment of a single contact point
handled by the Danish Energy Agency. The agency acts as a one stop shop and is
responsible for delivering the final permission regarding feasibility studies,
construction and production. The Agency is also responsible for coordinating input
from other relevant authorities.
Denmark is in the preparation for the national implementation of article 15 and 16
regarding streamlining administrative procedures and the set-up of national
contact points for renewable energy projects.
Electricity used for self-consumption is supported by an exemption from electricity
tax. At present, the tax on electricity for private consumers is 12.3 EUR cent/kWh.
This gives a clear economic incentive for self-consumption in buildings.
In Denmark there is a long tradition for establishing of renewable energy
communities especially in the district heating sector and renewable electricity
production.
52
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0053.png
Denmark is in the preparation for the national implementation of article 21 and 22
regarding an enabling framework for renewable self-consumption and renewable
energy communities.
(vi) Assessment of the necessity to build new infrastructure for district heating and
cooling produced from renewable energy sources
Denmark is rapidly phasing out fossil fuels for the production of heat and power.
The latest Energy Agreement from June 2018 is expected to give Denmark a RE
share in electricity above 100 % of consumption, while ensuring that at least 90 %
of district heating consumption is based on energy sources other than coal, oil or
gas by 2030. It is a political priority to achieve the increase through market
mechanisms. For the coming year an analysis will be conducted to assess the
expected transition path. This analysis will allow for further assessment of the
possible need for new infrastructure. And is expected finalized in the first half of
2019.
(vi) Where applicable, specific measures on the promotion of the use of energy
from biomass, especially for new biomass mobilisation taking into account:
- biomass availability, including sustainable biomass: both domestic potential and
imports from third countries
- other biomass uses by other sectors (agriculture and forest-based sectors); as
well as measures for the sustainability of biomass production and use
Denmark currently has no specific measures that promote the production of
electricity from new biomass installations after 2020. Considerations regarding the
promotion of new installations are currently undergoing.
Biomass for heating is promoted by the absence of energy taxes on heat from
renewable sources.
In 2014, the Danish energy sector laid down principles for a set of sustainability
criteria for the use of solid biomass in energy production. The purpose and
principles are set up as a voluntary industry agreement, to encourage the
industry's members and branches to the purchase of sustainable biomass.
As mentioned, in the present setup the electricity production from the use of solid
biomass in existing installations is supported with a fixed premium of 2
EURcent/kWh. This fixed premium scheme has been a supplement to tax
exemption on biomass fuels for heat production.
53
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0054.png
3.1.3 Other elements of the dimension
(i) Where applicable, national policies and measures affecting the EU ETS sector
and assessment of the complementarity and impacts on the EU ETS
Not applicable.
Although ost of De a k s poli ies a d easu es elated to
energy consumption mentioned in Table 1 (names starting with TD, EN, BU, TR or
HO) will have an effect on both CO
2
emissions under Directive 2003/87/EC [EU
ETS] and greenhouse gas emissions under Regulation 2018/842 [ESR] as
mentioned in chapter 3.1.1, assessments of the separate effect on the EU ETS
sector have not been carried out.
(ii) Policies and measures to achieve other national targets, where applicable
A o g De a k s poli ies a d easures
with effect on greenhouse gas emissions
epo ted i
i De a k s Se e th Natio al Co
u i atio a d Thi d
Biennial Report under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) and under the EU Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (MMR) cf.
Table 1, there are several policies and measures, which will also contribute to the
achievement of the expected national share on renewable energy in 2030. Directly
this includes EN-2, EN-3, EN-4, EN-5, BU-8 and TR-8 in Table 1 and indirectly TD-
1b, TD-2, TD-3, TD-4, TD-5, TD-6 and TD-7 in Table 1.
(iii) Policies and measures to achieve low-emission mobility (including
electrification of transport)
A o g De a k s poli ies a d easu es ith effe t o g ee house gas e issio s
reported in 2018 in Denma
k s Se e th Natio al Co
u i atio a d Thi d
Biennial Report under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) and under the EU Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (MMR) cf.
Table 1, there are policies and measures, which will also contribute to the
achievement of low-emission mobility and/or electrification of transport. This
includes TR-1a, TR-8, TR-10 and TR-12 in Table 1.
The following policies and measures in the
Cli ate a d Ai p oposal Togethe fo
a g ee e futu e of
9 October 2018, will also contribute to the achievement of
low-emission mobility (including electrification of transport):
C1)
C2)
C3)
Phase-out of sales of new petrol and diesel cars in 2030, and of new plug-
in hybrid cars in 2035.
A commission for the transition to green cars must show the way.
No registration tax in 2019 and 2020 on green cars priced below 400,000
DKK.
54
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0055.png
C4)
C5)
C6)
C7)
C8)
C9)
C10)
C11)
C12)
C13)
C14)
C16)
C17)
C18)
Lower taxation on green company cars.
Charging a low-emission car must be faster.
Greater powers for municipalities to grant parking discounts for low-
emission cars.
Ensuring parking spaces with charging stations for low-emission cars.
De a k s u i ipalities a g a t lo
-emission cars permission to drive
in bus lanes.
Research into the dynamics between electric cars and the energy system.
A e d to a o e issio s a d ai pollutio f o
usses i De a k s
cities by 2030
–
starting with the first step in 2020, where new buses must
be CO2-neutral.
Clea ai i De a k s ig ities –
bringing environmental zones up to
date.
Petrol and diesel out of taxi operations by 2030.
Benefits for green taxis.
Higher scrapping premium for old diesel cars.
All new asphalt on national roads must be climate-friendly, if an ongoing
pilot project can confirm the expected effects and durability of the
asphalt.
More biofuel in petrol and diesel.
More environmentally-friendly cruise tourism in the Baltic Sea.
(iv) Where applicable, national policies, timelines and measures planned to phase
out energy subsidies, in particular for fossil fuels
In general, Denmark does not have a tradition for subsidizing fossil fuels. Thus,
Denmark currently does not have policies, timelines and measures to phase out
fossil fuels.
Further, Denmark is member of the coalition Friends of Fossil Fuel Subsidy
Reform, together with Sweden, Norway, Finland, Switzerland, New Zealand,
Ethiopia, Costa Rica and Uruguay. The coalition works for promoting the phase out
of ineffective fossil fuel subsidies.
3.2 Dimension Energy efficiency
Planned policies, measures and programmes to achieve the indicative national
energy efficiency contributions for 2030 as well as other objectives referred to in
point 2.2, including planned measures and instruments (also of financial nature) to
promote the energy performance of buildings, in particular with regard to the
following:
(i) Energy efficiency obligation schemes and alternative policy measures under
Article 7a and 7b and article 20(6) of Directive 2012/27/EU and to be prepared in
accordance with Annex II to this Regulation
55
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0056.png
As previously mentioned, Denmark has had an energy efficiency obligation
scheme since 2006. The obligations are defined in the Acts concerning electricity
supply, natural gas supply and heat supply and sets out the commitments of the
electricity, natural gas and district heating network and distribution companies.
Denmark thus has the legal authority to impose an annual energy saving
obligation. However, the obligation is determined through a voluntary agreement
between the Minister for Energy, Utilities and Climate and the obligated
companies.
The companies included are:
• App o .
44 electricity distribution companies
•
atu al gas dist i utio
o pa ies
• App o .
dist i t heati g o pa ies
hi h a ies out the a ti it o
ehalf
of 6 oil companies
• The Oil I dust
The latest voluntary agreement on the obligation scheme is from 16 December
2016. The new energy savings agreement outlines the companies' energy saving
target until the end of 2020 as described under section A.
With the new energy agreement from June 2018 there is a political agreement to
replace the current Energy Savings Obligation scheme beyond 2020. The new
model is now being developed and it is expected that more details on the new
model to fulfill Article 7 beyond 2020 will be presented in the first NECP to be
prepared.
(ii) Long-term renovation strategy to support the renovation of the national stock
of residential and non-residential buildings, both public and private, including
policies, measures and actions to stimulate cost-effective deep renovation and
policies and actions to target the worst performing segments of the national
building block, in accordance with article 2a of EPBD
36
The energy agreement defines that the main instruments to stimulate investments
etc. should be market based and oriented towards providing maximum benefit for
society and consumers. The precise definition of measures and the interplay
between them now has to be defined.
36
In accordance with Article 2a of Directive 2010/31/EU [version as amended in accordance with proposal
COM(2016)765].
56
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0057.png
(iii) Description of policy and measures to promote energy services in the public
sector and measures to remove regulatory and non-regulatory barriers that
impede the uptake of energy performance contracting and other energy efficiency
service models
37
The Danish Government has implemented the following measures to promote
energy services in the public sector:
The Government has developed a general concept for OPP (= Public/Private
Partnerships), which encourages public authorities to enter into partnerships with
private partners in order to reduce costs and increase efficiency in the public
sector. OPP-projects play an important role in construction and renovation of
buildings in the public sector. The core of the concept is that construction or
renovation and maintenance of public buildings is carried out by private partners,
while the public pays an agreed rent for the use of the buildings based on a long
term contract. ESCO-projects can be considered as a special class of OPP-projects
with focus on energy renovation.
It is compulsory for local authorities to consider the use of OPP whenever they
decide to carry out new construction or renovation of buildings.
OPP-projects are supported by standard contracts and manuals, which have been
developed by the Government for local authorities.
Furthermore, the Government is disseminating information on ESCO and how to
use the ESCO-model in relation to energy performance contracting as a tool to
improve the energy efficiency in buildings owned by local and regional authorities.
It is estimated that there are no regulatory barriers to the use of energy
contracting. This is documented by the fact, that there has been an increase in the
use of ESCOs in the public sector. Over the last years 22 pct. of all municipalities
have chosen to carry out energy efficiency projects using energy performance
contracting with private partners.
To overcome non-regulatory barriers, the Government is disseminating
information on ESCOs to regional and local authorities.
(iv) Other planned policies, measures and programmes to achieve the indicative
national energy efficiency contributions for 2030 as well as other objectives
referred to in point 2.2 (for example measures to promote the exemplary role of
public buildings and energy-efficient public procurement, measures to promote
37
In accordance with Article 18 of Directive 2012/27/EU.
57
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0058.png
energy audits and energy management systems
38
, consumer information and
training measures
39
, and other measures to promote energy efficiency
40
)
As regards energy audits and management systems (EED Article 8) Act No 345 of 8
April 2014 contains the overarching requirements for energy audits of large
enterprises, which entails an obligation for large enterprises to carry out a
mandatory energy audit every four years on their total energy consumption,
including processes, buildings and transport. The enterprises can also fulfil their
obligation by using and maintaining a certified energy management system or a
certified environmental management system that includes an energy audit as part
of the management system. The minimum requirements for energy audits are
stipulated in the Executive Order 1212 of 19 November 2014 on energy audits in
large enterprises, which was issued pursuant to the Act.
As regards consumer information and training and with a reference to Articles 12
and 17 in the EED, the Danish Energy Agency has drawn up an action plan and
strategy for the information campaign on energy efficiency at end-user level. The
aim of this information campaign is to promote energy efficient solutions and
purchasing and energy efficient behaviour among end-users. The information
campaign focuses on end users with home owners, the public sector, and
commercial enterprises as specific focus areas.
Improving the energy efficiency of buildings and modifying behaviour in
connection to the use of buildings is a priority in the Danish public and consumer
information campaign. This involves preparing material on energy efficient
solutions, information on building regulations, and better access to information
and knowledge about energy renovation. The Danish Energy Age
s e site
www.sparenergi.dk
is the a k o e of the Age
s o
u i atio ith the e d
users concerning energy efficient solutions both in private households and in
public and private enterprises.
In addition to SparEnergi.dk the Danish Energy Agency offers private households
free phone and email advice regarding energy efficient solutions and arrange
public meetings together with local authorities with focus on energy
refurbishment and particular replacement of oil boilers into heat pumps.
BedreBolig is a scheme offering advice, which was launched in autumn 2014.
There is no longer financial support to the building owner via the scheme, but the
scheme is still being administered. The aim of the scheme is to make it easier and
38
39
In accordance with Article 8 of Directive 2012/27/EU.
In accordance with Articles 12 and 17 of Directive 2012/27/EU
40
In accordance with Article 19 of Directive 2012/27/EU.
58
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0059.png
more clear for home owners how to renovate their homes by offering
comprehensive, expert advice throughout the energy renovation process.
Training and awareness-raising about energy efficiency are also important
ele e ts i the Da ish E e g Age
s o k to i p o e e e g effi
iency. The
BedreBolig scheme contains a large element of training. In connection with the
scheme, a training course for tradesmen has been set up where tradesmen,
construction engineers, engineers, architects etc. can train to provide advice from
the start of a renovation project to the completion (one-stop shop).
The Knowledge Centre for Energy Savings (Videncenter for Energibesparelser -
VEB) is a service for tradesmen and educational institutions concerning energy
efficiency improvements. The centre has worked with industry organisation within
the area of mediating knowledge to its members, and VEB provides on regular
basis courses to support the general further education of tradesmen.
Furthermore, educational efforts are carried out via a campaign run by the labour
market training centres.
The energy agreement from June 2018 includes measures to improve the use of
data and digitalisation to promote energy efficiency. Special emphasis is put on
using data to improve the quality and use of the Energy Performance Certificates,
which are produced in accordance with the Directive Energy Performance of
Buildings Directive.
Furthermore the agreement includes measures to improve consumer information
and awareness targeted at end-users and energy service companies with the view
of improving energy efficiency and the market for energy services.
(v)Where applicable, a description of policies and mesures to promote the role of
local energy communities in contributing to the implementation of policies and
measures in points I, ii and iv
Not applicable
(vi) Description of measures to utilise energy efficiency potentials of gas and
electricity infrastructure
41
In 2015 The Danish Energy Agency together with the Danish TSO Energinet, The
Danish Energy Association and the Danish DSO, HMN Natural Gas published the
epo t
Potentialevurdering for energieffektivitet i el- og gasinfrastruktur i
41
In accordance with Article 15(2) of Directive 2012/27/EU.
59
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0060.png
Da ark The pote tial for e erg effi ie
infrastructure).
i the Da ish ele tri it a d gas
The report was published to meet the obligations in directive 2012/27/EU, art.
15(2). The report both addresses the energy efficiency potentials for transit and
distribution in the electricity and gas sector and gas storage.
For the
electricity
infrastructure, Energinet works on concrete projects on
automatic voltage control and reactive power control that among other things will
have a positive effect on energy efficiency. Energy efficiency is generally a
parameter that is considered by Energinet in infrastructure projects in Denmark.
Energinet is now also implementing procedures to support the use of excess heat
to dist i t heati g f o E e gi et s fa ilities o a o
-profit basis, where it is
socioeconomically viable. While not directly decreasing the efficiency of
E e gi et s ele t i it t a
smission activities, the utilization of the heat generated
through electricity losses, decreases the loss of value for the Danish society as a
whole.
The energy loss in the Danish
gas
net is very low and is approximately 0,06 pct. of
the total gas consumption. Efficiency potentials are primarily related to the choice
of components; compressors and boilers and the choice of pressure and
temperature. There is no measureable loss of gas from storage. As an example, all
compressor drives in the Danish system are electrical powered.
The gas net is continuously optimized and components are renewed with more
energy efficient components, when the grid is maintained.
Because of the very low net loss it is not possible to point to significant efficiency
potentials, which is not being taken care of in the continuous maintenance of the
grid
(vii) Regional cooperation in this area, where applicable
Nordic Co-operation on Energy Efficiency
The Nordic cooperation on energy efficiency is conducted in the networking group
on energy efficiency (NGEE). The group consists of experts from the Ministries and
energy authorities in the Nordic countries.
The main objectives of the co-operation in this area are to promote Nordic co-
operation on energy efficiency initiatives and to implement EU/EEA directives and
programmes.
60
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0061.png
The co-operation is conducted in a network co-operation where specific ad hoc is
dis ussed ithi the g oup espe iall i elatio to the Clea e e g fo all
package. In addition to this the group is facilitating analysis and seminars on
specific issues.
Below is some recent examples of Nordic energy efficiency co-operation.
-
A Nordi Approa h to the EU’s Heati g a d Cooli g Strateg
The project had two goals: 1) to present a survey on Heating and Cooli
g to
generate information which will help Nordic politicians, government officials and
other interest groups to further develop the market for these solutions and as a
ke o je ti e to ide tif the o
o i te est of No di ou t ies a d to
arrange
a o kshop i B ussels to p ese t the good p a ti es f o the No di
countries, further development areas, and serve as a starting point for discussions
concerning the different options for regulatory approaches in the heating and
ooli g a ket .
- Mainstreaming energy services and EPC in the Nordic countries
The objective of the project is to strengthen the Nordic market for energy services
and EPC by
-
creating networks among local authority clients and facilitators in the
Nordic countries,
–
–
increasing exchange of information and mutual capacity building, and by
mainstreaming the way of conducting energy efficiency projects.
Nordic cooperation ecodesign and energy labelling
The Nordic cooperation on market surveillance and policy work on ecodesign and
energy labelling is conducted in the Nordsyn working group. It is a cooperation
among Nordic market surveillance authorities (MSAs) and policy agencies.
Ecodesign and energy labelling supplies nearly half the energy savings target set
by the EU in 2020. Effective regulations and efficient market surveillance is
essential if this is to be realized and Nordsyn aim to improve the efficiency of
Nordic market surveillance and policy input. Nordic authorities, producers and
consumers benefit from Nordsyn while green growth and energy efficiency are
supported. The results and structure of Nordsyn can be used to improve market
surveillance also in other EU countries.
61
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0062.png
Nordsyn sub projects:
In 2018 Nordsyn focus on 1) the strategic Nordic product heat pumps with two
studies on how the products work in reality in Nordic climate; 2) an information
film on the new product database and coming revised energy labelling; 3) a
Nordcrawl2 project in which the previous developed Nordcrawl web crawling tool
will be applied to give valuable input to market surveillance and policy work.
Earlier projects: Barriers for market surveillance cooperation (2012 and 2013-
2015), Working methods (2013-2015), Information material (2013), Strategic
Nordic products
–
Heat pumps (2014), Challenges for market surveillance
–
difficult products (2015-2017), Effects of market surveillance (2013-2014),
Cooperation with customs (2013-2014), How small counties work with ecodesign
and energy labelling (2013-2014), Energy labelling online information film (2016),
Heat pump list prospect (2016), Strategic Nordic products - Windows (2017-2018),
Heat pump reality studies phase 1 and 2 (2017-2018), Recycler interview study
(2017-2018).
Results from Nordsyn
The most appreciated result of Nordsyn is that the Nordic countries now regularly
share questions, commission answers, discussions, test results and plans on email
and skype. Even though the core of Nordsyn is continuous contact and exchange
of market surveillance results, Nordsyn has also given the possibility to perform a
number of projects that improve Nordic market surveillance and knowledge of
legislation among producers, retailers and consumers. The Nordsyn steering group
communicate on monthly skype meetings, emails and two physical
meetings/workshops per year.
Effects-project:
this study showed a prevented energy loss worth 28 million Euro
for a market surveillance cost of around 2 million Euro in the Nordic countries, and
an overall rate of 6.3% non-compliance. These results show that the market
surveillance is cost efficient, especially when countries cooperate.
Strategic Nordic products Heat pumps-project:
the project resulted in an
overview of legislation, national work and recommendations. Some of these
recommendations are further studied in the 2017 and 2018 heat pump projects.
Challenges-project:
the project contains a number of product studies on how to
perform market surveillance on complex products (ventilation units, transformers,
professional refrigeration etc).
62
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0063.png
(viii)Financing measures, including Union support and the use of EU funds, in the
area at national level
An updated list of financing measures will be included in the first NECP for the
period 2021-2030.
3.3 Dimension Energy security
(i) Policies and measures related to the elements set out in 2.3
42
The general movement of the Danish Energy sectors go towards further
diversification as a result of a political ambition to increase the amount of
renewables in the energy mix and the technical challenges with the fluctuation of
wind and solar power. At the moment the Danish Government invests in a variety
of energy technologies focused on increasing the variation of possibilities in
production, distribution and consumption.
Denmark has developed legislation to ensure that the electricity and natural gas
sector adapt to new digitally enabled threats and vulnerabilities. This legislation is
adapted into the existing framework for risk assessment and mitigation. A specific
strategy for cybersecurity in the energy sectors has been developed in
cooperation with the companies in the recognition of the complexity of the area
and demand for corporation between authorities and companies.
The electricity sector
In Denmark the probability of electricity being available to the consumer, when it
is demanded, is better than 99.99% and there has been no historic lack of
electricity supply due to insufficient generation capacity or interconnector. In the
year 2020 Denmark will have more interconnector capacity than the maximum
Danish electricity consumption and together with the domestic installed electricity
production capacity, Denmark is solidly based in the matter of security of electrical
supply.
42
Consistency shall be ensured with the preventive action and emergency plans under Regulation [as proposed
by COM(2016) 52] concerning measures to safeguard the security of gas supply and repealing Regulation (EU) No
994/2010, as well as the risk preparedness plans under Regulation [as proposed by COM(2016) 862] on risk-
preparedness in the electricity sector and repealing Directive 2005/89/EC.
63
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0064.png
The matter of sufficient generation capacity is being monitored and analyzed
regularly by Energinet and the Danish Energy Agency, in order to take any re-
quired pre-emptive measures needed to meet the level of security of supply.
The natural gas sector
The producer in the North Sea has announced that the main gas production facility
in the North Sea
–
Tyra
–
will be shut down from November 2019 to July 2022 in
order to renovate the facility. The decision has been taken due to security reasons,
as the platform has sunk since the facility came on stream in 1984, and the fact
that the waves are becoming higher and more powerful. During the shut-down,
gas flows on shore to Denmark will be reduced to about 10 % of the gas delivered
in 2018. The oil production in the southern part of the North Sea is expected to
continue during the period of renovation and the associated gas production can
be evacuated to the Netherlands through the NOGAT pipe line system. However,
it is expected that the export to the Netherlands will not exceed 1 BCM per year.
The Tyra shut-down period represents a new challenge for the Danish as well as
the Swedish security of gas supply, as the gas markets will be almost fully relying
on supplies from Germany and the two Danish storage facilities. Thanks to the
former expansion of the transmission system in the Northern part of Germany and
in the southern part of Jutland, the import capacity from Germany in combination
with the storage capacity should be sufficient to ensure gas supply to the Danish
and Swedish customers. However, the gas system will be significant less flexible
and more vulnerable during the reconstruction of the Tyra gas facility.
When the Tyra facility comes on stream again, Denmark will return to be a net
exporter of gas. It is expected that the degree of self-sufficiency of gas will be
about 160-170 % and that Denmark will continue to be self-sufficient to at least
2035.
(ii) Regional cooperation in this area
43
Denmark is promoting regional cooperation by participating in the Nordic risk-
preparedness cooperation group (NordBER) and by facilitation the operational
coordination between the Nordic Electricity TSOs in the Nordic Regional Security
Coordinator (RSC) stationed in Denmark.
Consistency shall be ensured with the preventive action and emergency plans under Regulation [as proposed
by COM(2016) 52] concerning measures to safeguard the security of gas supply and repealing Regulation (EU) No
994/2010, as well as the risk preparedness plans under Regulation [as proposed by COM(2016) 862] on risk-
preparedness in the electricity sector and repealing Directive 2005/89/EC.
64
43
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0065.png
The natural gas sector
The Danish TSO (Energinet) and the Polish TSO (Gaz-System) have taken the final
investment decision to establish the Baltic Pipe project. The project will make it
possible to transport up to 10 BCM Norwegian gas to Poland from October 2022
through the Danish gas infrastructure. The project will connect the Danish and
Polish gas markets including the possibility for Denmark to import gas from Poland
With regard to the implementation of Regulation 2017/1938 concerning measures
to safeguard the security of gas supply, Denmark participates in the risk groups
Norway, Baltic Sea and Denmark. Denmark leads the risk group and a final report
has been prepared and notified to the Commission. Furthermore, Denmark will
have to make agreements with Germany and Sweden in technical, legal and
financial arrangements in order to ensure that gas can be supplied to solidarity
protected customers in one of the Member States in case of a request. A dialog
with Germany and Sweden on these arrangements is ongoing.
(iii) Where applicable, financing measures in this area at national level, including
Union support and the use of Union funds
Not applicable
3.4 Dimension Internal energy market
3.4.1 Electricity infrastructure
(i) Policies and measures to achieve the targeted level of interconnectivity as set
out in point (d) of Article 4
Denmark has no specific target regarding interconnectivity, but it remains to be a
priority. In Denmark new interconnectors are approved based on their socio
e o o i alue, see . . . It is the Da ish TSO, E e gi et s,
responsibility to
propose new interconnectors to the relevant ministry.
(ii) Regional cooperation in this area
44
The North Seas Energy Cooperation aims to facilitate the further cost-effective
deployment of offshore renewable energy with the aim of ensuring a sustainable,
secure and affordable energy supply in the North Seas countries, thereby also
facilitating further interconnection, further integration and increased efficiency of
wholesale electricity markets in the longer term.
44
Other than the PCI Regional Groups established under Regulation (EU) No 347/2013.
65
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0066.png
Denmark works together with the other North Seas Energy Cooperation countries
on the possibilities for concrete cooperation projects. Besides joint offshore wind
projects that would be connected to and supported by several Member States
(see 3.1.2), this includes the work on possible 'hybrid' solutions that would use a
grid connection cable for evacuating offshore wind as well as interconnection
capacity between countries, and on the corresponding market arrangements.
Denmark is therefore contributing to the development of a regional study looking
at the possibilities for cooperation on hybrid projects and identifying and
addressing possible legal, regulatory and commercial barriers. Further work is
planned on synergies between offshore wind and offshore oil and gas
installations.
By coordinating on increased interconnection among the countries in the North
Seas Energy Cooperation, an increasing amount of excess production of energy
could flow across borders in a well-functioning internal energy market.
Si e the esta lish e t of the No th Seas Cou t ies Offsho e G id
Initiative(NSCOGI) in 2009, the cost of offshore wind energy has decreased with
technologies used to generate it have matured, and in 2016 the countries in the
North Seas Region signed a political declaration to reaffirm their commitment to
cooperation.
Furthermore, nordic TSOs work closely together on Nordic grid development and
have developed a Nordic Grid Development plan 2017. The report is intended to
be renewed every two years.
The Nordic Council of Ministers and the underlying Committee of Senior Officials
for Energy and the Electricity Market Group also coordinate on energy issues and
monitor for example the TSO cooperation (also on grid development).
3.4.2 Energy transmission infrastructure
(i) Policies and measures related to the elements set out in point 2.4.2, including,
where applicable, specific measures to enable the delivery of Projects of Common
Interest (PCIs) and other key infrastructure projects
Infrastructure projects are developed by the Danish TSO and approved by the
Danish Energy Agency and the Ministry for Energy, Utilities and Climate.
No specific measures have been implemented relating to the elements set out in
2.3.2. The Danish TSO, Energinet, is the sole developer of electricity and gas
transmission projects and these projects are assessed in terms of the need for the
project. The need is assessed in terms of whether it complies with any of the
following topics
66
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0067.png
-
Wellfunctioning energy markets
-
Security of supply
-
Risk preparedness
-
Integration of renewable energy sources
In addition interconnectors are also assessed in terms of their socio-economic
benefit.
No specific measures in addition to the TEN-E regulation have been implemented
(ii) Regional cooperation in this area
45
Denmark participates in the relevant fora that are established under the TEN-E
regulation, such as the North Seas Energy Cooperation and the Baltic Energy
Market Interconnection Plan.
(iii) Where applicable, financing measures in this area at national level, including
Union support and the use of Union funds
In general infrastructure projects are financed through tariffs. The Danish TSO,
Energinet, has made use of the Connecting Europe Facility for feasibility studies
and pre-lay investigation of cable routes etc.and the Baltic Pipe project
3.4.3 Market integration
(i) Policies and measures related to the elements set out in point 2.4.3
With regards to system adequacy and level of security of supply, in 2018 a new
law is envisaged giving the relevant minister the possibility to set a specific
standard for the level of security of supply. The intention is to enable a political
discussion of the desired level for security of supply as well as transparency of
related costs and benefits. The Danish TSO is responsible for living up to the
desired level.
Denmark finds that system adequacy should be secured through marked based
solutions in the electricity markets, not by capacity markets. However, Energinet is
empowered to implement a strategic reserve, if necessary, and given the
necessary approvals on EU level.
(ii) Measures to increase the flexibility of the energy system with regard to
renewable energy production, such as smart grids, aggregation, demand response,
storage, distributed generation, mechanisms for dispatching, redispatching and
curtailment, real-time price signals, including the roll-out of intraday market
coupling and cross-border balancing markets
45
Other than the PCI Regional Groups established under Regulation (EU) No 347/2013.
67
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0068.png
Implicit Intra-day market coupling in the Nordic Market and between East
Denmark and Germany via Kontek-interconnector has been in place for many
years and from June 2018 the former explicit allocation of capacity on the
interconnector between West Denmark and Germany has been replaced by
implicit intra-day market coupling (also known as XBID).
Cross-border markets and products are developed in line with the electricity
balancing and Capacity Allocation and Congestion Management guidelines and
the corresponding timeframe.
In Denmark, new renewable energy production cannot receive subsidies in hours
with negative market prices. This is one measure to ensure the right incentives for
market participants and reaction to price signals.
(iv) Policies and measures to protect consumers, especially vulnerable and, where
applicable, energy poor consumers, and to improve the competitiveness and
contestability of the retail energy market
These include an obligation for electricity suppliers to supply any household
usto e , upo the usto e s e uest, i a eas he e the supplie offe s its
products. It is not allowed to enter into time-limited supply agreements with
household customers. If there is particular reason to expect a lack of payment
ability or willingness to pay, that is if the customer is or has been in arrears with
payments, the supplier can request a guarantee from the customer. Only if the
request for a guarantee is not fulfilled, the supplier is allowed to cancel the
agreement.
A supplier centric model has been implemented in 2016 with the aim of ensuring
that suppliers have the primary customer contact, and all costs related to
electricity are summed up in one bill sent to the customer by their supplier. In
addition, a regulation on electricity companies' invoicing of costs to electricity
consumers
46
has been passed to ensure that electricity bills are more easily
understandable. The regulation sets a minimum standard on the content of
electricity bills.
Denmark has also introduced a datahub that enables all transactions related to
the retail and wholesale market to be managed through one central system
operated and owned by the TSO. This also creates more transparency and ensures
a level playing field regarding access to data.
46
BEK nr 1400 af 03/12/2015
68
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0069.png
Denmark has established an online price comparison tool, elpris.dk, operated by
the Danish regulatory authority that facilitates easier comparison between
different suppliers and a trustworthy source of information on the quality and
terms of different products offered in the market.
A recent change in Danish law
47
requires stricter rules regarding the separated
identity of monopoly and commercial activities in vertically integrated companies.
Monopoly companies have to clearly distinguish themselves (name and logo) in
public appearance, including all sorts of customer contact. The new rules are
effective as of 1 July 2018.
Denmark generally addresses energy poverty through social policy, which is not
specifically targeted towards energy. There are specific subsidies targeting energy
efficiency, particularly in buildings. Low-income pensioners, however, receive
specific financial support for their heating bill.
(v) Description of measures to enable and develop demand response including
those addressing tariffs to support dynamic pricing
48
By 2020 all Danish customers will have smart meters installed. Simultaneously, the
TSO and distribution grid operators implement a new hourly settlement model,
a ed fle af eg i g , fo s all o su e s <
.
kWh/ ea . This is the asi
precondition for the access to dynamic pricing products that make it possible to
benefit from demand response activities.
Besides the dynamic electricity price, DSOs can choose to apply a time-
differentiated tariff model, and 3 DSOs have chosen that model to date. Currently,
the tariff is based on a static time-of-use model consisting of two different tariff
levels for small consumers. DSOs and TSO are further developing their tariff
models including coordination between transmission and distribution levels. The
2018 energy agreement also includes an initiative to address potential regulatory
barriers in relation to tariffs, in particular how they affect demand response.
A large share of the electricity price for Danish household consumers is made up
of levies and taxes. Measures have been put into force that over several years
remove the levy for public service obligations from the electricity bill. Moreover,
the 2018 energy agreement contains a substantial reduction of the electricity tax.
As a result wholesale prices may be reflected onto consumers more directly and
with less distortions in the future.
47
LOV nr 662 af 08/06/2017
In accordance with Article 15(8) of Directive 2012/27/EU.
69
48
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0070.png
Just as reducing the general electricity tax rate, it is also planned to cut the tax on
electricity used for heating by almost half over the coming years. Primarily, this
aims at a further electrification of the heating sector. At the same time, the new
pricing- and tariff regimes shall ensure the flexible operation of such units.
The energy agreement also includes an initiative to explore the possibilities of a
dynamic electricity tax. A dynamic electricity tax can for example increase demand
in periodes with low electricity prices where production of renewable electricity is
high.
There are no specific barriers in Danish law that inhibit independent service
providers to enter into a contract with a customer or an aggregator, or
aggregators from offering demand flexibility. No difference is made between bids
in the market coming from a single source or an aggregated source. Nonetheless,
Denmark seeks to further develop its market model to facilitate demand response,
including through aggregation, and support the utilisation of flexibility at the
distribution level. Therefore, market models are being revised to define and
accommodate aggregators as a stand-alone role in its own right.
3.5 Dimension Research, innovation and competitiveness
(i) Policies and measures related to the elements set out in point 2.5
As a participant in the
i te atio al oope atio Missio I o atio De a k
has committed to double its public funding to research and development to 580
mio. dkr. in 2020. The funding will be earmarked energy research and
development on the annual state budget.
The Danish government has proposed to earmark appr. 60 mio. DKK to new test
facilities in smart energy.
(ii) Where applicable, cooperation with other Member States in this area,
including, where appropriate, information on how the SET Plan objectives and
policies are being translated to a national context
Nordic energy research co-operation
Nordic Energy Research (NER) is the platform for cooperative energy research and
analysis in the Nordic region under the auspices of Nordic Council of Ministers. It
funds research of joint Nordic interest that supports these ambitions by expanding
knowledge on sustainable energy and contributing to the development of new,
competitive energy solutions. Denmark is an active member of Nordic Energy
Research.
70
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0071.png
According to its strategy for the period 2018-2021 the vision of NER is to create
the knowledge basis for the Nordic countries to become global leaders in smart
energy. The mission is progressed through Nordic collaboration.
NER manages a number of projects and facilitates in various fields, ranging from
compilation of results from ongoing studies, to technical research. As an
illust atio , i
NER sele ted th ee a itious p oje ts to se e as Flagships
for Nordic research cooperation in energy for the coming 4-year period, covering
such diverse areas as flexible electricity market design to allow for more wind and
solar energy; modelling how to achieve an energy-efficient and low carbon
transport system; and enabling negative CO2-emissions through new combustion-
related technologies.
With regard to the regional aspects linked to the national energy and climate
plans, two projects are of particular significance:
Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives (NETP) is a Nordic edition of the
I te atio al E e g Age
s IEA glo al E e g Te h olog Pe spe ti es. The
report has been published twice (2013 and 2016) and offers a detailed scenario-
based regional analysis of how the Nordic countries can achieve a near carbon-
neutral energy system. At present, the possibility of an updated report (with the
working title Nordic Energy Outlook) is discussed within the Bard of NER and with
the IEA
.
The Nordic Electric Vehicle Outlook 2018 (NEVO 2018) has been developed in co-
operation between the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Nordic Energy
Research. It aims to identify and discuss recent developments of electric mobility
in the five Nordic countries: Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden. The
report assesses the current status of the electric car market, the deployment of
charging infrastructure, and the integration with the electricity grid at country
level. It analyses the role of European, national, and local policy frameworks in
supporting these developments. The analysis also provides insights on consumer
behaviour and includes an outlook on the progress of electric mobility in the
Nordic region up to 2030.
SET-plan
The overarching criteria of the Danish energy research and demonstration
program are applicability to global trends and challenges, and business potential,
in line with the objectives of the SET-plan. When it comes to specific technology
areas Denmark has taken a neutral approach, but favor areas where Denmark
already has a stronghold.
71
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0072.png
Denmark is committed to the work on both the regional and the European level,
and has opened its national research program for international participation so as
to facilitate international cooperation in the area.
(iii) Where applicable, financing measures in this area at national level, including
Union support and the use of Union funds
As a pa ti ipa t i the i te atio al oope atio Missio I o atio De a k
has committed to double its public funding to research and development to 580
mio. dkr. in 2020.
Denmark has received approximately 94,6 mio.
€ to e e g
the Horizon2020-programme (from 2014 to March 2018).
elated p oje ts u de
72
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0073.png
Part 1: General framework
SECTION B: ANALYTICAL BASIS
49
49
See Part 2 for a detailed list of parameters and variables to be reported in Section B of the Plan.
73
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0074.png
4. CURRENT SITUATION AND PROJECTIONS WITH EXISTING
POLICIES AND MEASURES
50,51
4.1 Projected evolution of main exogenous factors influencing
energy system and GHG emission developments
The projections and assumptions presented below were published in April 2018,
ai l as pa t of De a k s E e g a d Cli ate Outlook
DECO . Thus,
projection results include existing measures as of April 2018. On June 29th 2018,
the Danish Government and all parties in Parliament agreed to a new set of
measures to be introduced from 2020 to 2024. On 9 October 2018 the
go e
e t pu lished its Cli ate a d Ai P oposal Togethe fo a g ee e
futu e ith additio al easu es fo edu i g oth g ee house
gas emissions and
air pollution. Preliminary projected effects of the Energy Agreement and the
Climate and Air proposal are included where stated
–
especially in chapter 5
(trends with additional measures). However, in general, measures decided upon
after March 2018 are not included in the projections in this chapter (chapter 4:
trends with measures implemented or adopted when the projection was
ela o ated , ut ill e i luded i the e t De a k s E e g a d Cli ate
Outlook, which will be published in 2019.
(i) Macroeconomic forecasts (GDP and population growth)
GDP forecast from DECO18:
2017-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2017-2030
GDP
1,78
1,55
1,22
1,48
50
51
Current situation as of April 2018
The selection of exogenous factors may be based on the assumptions made in the EU Reference Scenario 2016
or other subsequent policy scenarios for the same variables. Besides, Member States specific results of the EU
Reference Scenario 2016 as well as results of subsequent policy scenarios may also be a useful source of
information when developing national projections with existing policies and measures and impact assessments.
74
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0075.png
Population growth:
No explicitit popultion growth assumptions are used in projections. However,
population growth assumptions are implicitly taken account of in the projections,
since they are part of the underlying assumptions, e.g. as part of assumptions on
development of square metres in housing (i.e. more people, more square metres
for heating). Official population growth statistics are publicised by Statistics
Denmark here:
http://www.statistikbanken.dk/statbank5a/default.asp?w=1920
(ii) Sectorial changes expected to impact the energy system and GHG emissions
As the asis fo this hapte s des iptio of the p oje ted ke se to ial
changes
expected to impact the energy system and GHG emissions, is the latest energy and
GHG emission projection published in the DECO18
52
.
Some of the information is from the related GHG projection documentation report
for the DECO18
53
.
The effects of the Energy Agreement of 29 June 2018
54
and the Climate and Air
proposal of 9 October 2018
55
on GHG emissions are therefore not included is this
chapter. This information is included in Chapter 5.
The energy sector
The total renewable energy (RE) share is expected to be 39.8 per cent by 2030 in
the absence of new initiatives, giving a gap of 10.2 per cent point to the
government's target of at least 50 per cent RE in 2030. The RE share increases
until 2021, reaching 43.6 per cent with a decrease thereafter due to increasing
electricity consumption and declining domestic RE expansion. The RE share is
expected to reach 42.0 per cent by 2020, whereby the EU's commitment to a RE
share of 30 per cent by 2020 is exceeded.
In 2020, Denmark's total greenhouse gas emission is expected to be 38-39 per
cent below the UN base year 1990. The reduction continues until 2021 where it
expected to be 39 per cent below the UN base year. In the absence of new
52
https://en.efkm.dk/energy-and-raw-materials/energy-proposal/
http://envs.au.dk/videnudveksling/luft/emissioner/projection/greenhouse-gases/.
https://presse.ens.dk/news/basisfremskrivning-2018-nu-paa-engelsk-316511
https://en.efkm.dk/news/news-archive/2018/oct/together-for-a-greener-future/
75
53
54
55
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0076.png
initiatives the emissions are expected to increase thereafter. This development is
especially due to the development in energy-
elated e issio s. De a k s EU
commitment for the non-quota sectors for the period 2013-2020 is fulfilled with
an overachievement. The non-quota-related emissions for the period 2021-2030
are expected to give a gap between 32 and 37 million. tonnes of CO2 eq. with an
uncertainty of +/- 10 million. tonnes of CO2 eq.
Electricity consumption (excluding grid losses) rises from 31.3 TWh in 2017 to 42.2
TWh by 2030, which is mainly due to increasing electricity consumption by data
centers representing 65 per cent of the increase and by 2030 is expected to
amount to 16.7 per cent of electricity consumption (excluding grid losses). There is
considerable uncertainty about future electricity consumption by data centers.
Increasing electricity consumption combined with new electrical connections to
high-priced areas is expected to entail that domestic electricity production will
increase until 2023 and that Denmark is expected to become a net exporter of
electricity in the period 2020-2024. Thereafter, imports are projected to increase
due to the absence of new measures. Net imports are expected to reach 8.6 TWh
by 2030, corresponding to 19 per cent of electricity consumption (including grid
losses).
The proportion of electrified vehicles (electric cars and plug-in hybrid cars) is
expected to rise steadily and will be 7 per cent of the fleet of passenger cars and
vans in 2030 and account for 1.2 per cent of electricity consumption (excluding
grid losses). There is considerable uncertainty about the share of electrified
vehicles in new car sales by 2030. The commitment of 10 per cent RE in transport
by 2020 will not be achieved in the absence of new measures.
Consumption of bioenergy stabilize from 2021 and is expected to remain the
largest share of the RE consumption amounting to 67 per cent by 2030. The
contribution to RE consumption from large and small heat pumps, which utilizes
heat in ambient air, is projected to increase by 7.3 per cent annually and amount
to 8 per cent by 2030. Heat pumps will increasingly replace the use of wood
pellets, natural gas and oil in households. Oil for heating is expected to account for
less than 2 per cent of the households' energy consumption in 2030.
The business sector's energy consumption is projected to decreases 0.4 per cent
annually by 2020, after which it is expected to increase by 2.2 per cent annually
until 2030
–
partly due to an increase in electricity consumption from new data
centers and partly due to the cease of energy companies' energy-saving efforts
from 2021 in the absence of new initiatives.
76
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0077.png
Sensitive assumptions and uncertainties affect key results. Eg. in the energy
consuming sectors there is uncertainty associated with the projection of electricity
consumption from data centers, as well as the assumptions about the CO2 quota
price, fossil fuel prices, traffic work, the number of dairy cows, the disposal of
coal-fired power generation capacity and the distribution of vehicle types in the
sale of new cars.
The possible introduction of a number of Hyper Scale Data Centres in Denmark is a
significant sectoral change which will impact the Danish energy system. This
phenomenon is described in detail in DECO18 as well as in a special report on data
centres, s available here:
https://ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/Analyser/temaanalyse_om_store_datacentre.pdf
The consequences for the energy system, and in particular the electriciy
o su ptio of the usi ess se to , a e des i ed i DECO s p oje tio of the
future final energy consumption 2017-2030 (Figure 14 in DEO18)
Figure 2. Projections of final energy consumption
77
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0078.png
The industrial processes sector
Industrial processes and product use includes mineral industries, chemical
industries, metal industries, non-energy products from fuels and solvent use,
electronics industry, product use as substitutes for ozone depleting substances
and other product manufacturing and use.
Total greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the industrial processes sector have
decreased 9 per cent from 2344 kt CO2eq. in 1990 to 2124 kt CO2eq. in 2016.
A range of greenhouse gas emission sources are covered within each of these
categories with different characteristics influencing the projected sectorial
changes expected to impact the emission of CO2, nitrous oxide (N2O), methane
(CH4), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) and the so-called
fluorinated gases or F-gases including substitutes for ozone depleting substances
(HFCs, PFCs and SF6). The predominant sources within industrial processes and
product use are CO2 from the production of cement (these emissions are included
under EU ETS) and F-gases from their use in refrigerators and other appliances.
The emission projections are for some of the industrial sources based on projected
production values for the energy and production industries. These production
value projections are available for steel-, glass- and cement industry. For HFCs,
PFCs and SF6, also known as F-gases, emission projections are based on expert
knowledge about historic consumption and technological developments and
substitutes in the future. As none of the F-gases are produced in Denmark, the
emissions of these gases are associated only with their use. For the remaining
sources, emission projections are based on historical emissions.
Cement production is the major CO2 source within industrial processes. In-
formation on the emission of CO2 until 2016 is based on the 2017 company report
to EU ETS.
F-gases are powerful GHGs with global warming potentials (GWPs) between 124
and 22,800. F-gases therefore, receive a great deal of attention in connection with
GHG emission inventories. For many F-gas applications, the gases can be
controlled and/or replaced, which has been, and continues to be, the case in
Denmark. Data for the projections take this into consideration. EU legislations are
already covered by different existing Danish legislation. Exemptions from the
Danish bans on e.g. refrigeration equipment have been taken into account in the
projections.
Sensitive assumptions and uncertainties affect key results. Eg. also in the future
cement production will be sensitive to the general economic development as
78
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0079.png
could be seen during the economic downturn in 2008-2010 and the use and
emission of F-gases will be sensitive to the development of alternative refrigerants
and technologies.
The agricultural sector
Methane emissions (CH4) in agriculture have decreased slightly from 223 kt CH4 in
1990 to 222 kt CH4 in 2016. The projection shows an increase in methane
emission from the enteric process enteric, while the methane emission from
manure management decrease.
The historical emission related to the enteric fermentation shows a decrease,
which is due to a fixed EU milk quota. Because of higher milk yield per cow, a
lower number of dairy cattle are needed to produce the amount of milk,
corresponding to the EU milk quota. The AGMEMOD model indicates that
Denmark, in the future, can be expected to increase both the milk production and
the number of dairy cattle. A growing number of dairy cattle, a continued increase
in milk yield, followed by an increase of feed intake, all leads to an increase of the
methane emission from enteric fermentation.
The methane emission from manure management has increased from 1990 to
2016, which is a result of change in housing systems towards more slurry based
systems. In the future, the emission from manure management is expected to
decrease due to more housing systems with acidification of manure and manure
cooling, and because of more manure delivered to biogas production.
Nitrous oxide emissions (N2O) in agriculture have decreased 17 per cent from 18.8
kt N2O in 1990 to 15.6 kt N2O in 2016. The reduction is primarily driven by a
decrease in use of inorganic N-fertilisers as a consequence of improved utilization
of nitrogen in manure, forced by environmental requirements. The situation for
the projected emission is opposite. The increased emission is due to the
expectation of higher consumption of inorganic N-fertilisers caused by the political
agreement on a Food and Agricultural package, which allowed increased nitrogen
application on agricultural land. An increase of nitrous oxide emission is also
occurring from animal manure applied on soil due to the growing number of dairy
cattle.
Sensitive assumptions and uncertainties affect key results. Eg. in the agricultural
sector there is uncertainty associated with the number of dairy cows, the use of
fertilizer etc.
The LULUCF sector
79
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0080.png
The emission of GHGs from the LULUCF sector (Land Use, Land Use Change and
Forestry) primarily includes the emission of CO2 from land use, small amounts of
N2O from disturbance of soils not included in the agricultural sector and CH4
emission from Grassland, Wetlands and wild fires in the LULUCF sector. The
projections are made based on the best available knowledge of the past
development in the land use in Denmark and expectations for the future.
Total GHGs in the LULUCF sector, estimated in the format under the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), have increased 13
per cent from 4789 kt CO2eq. in 1990 to 5413 kt CO2eq. in 2016. From 2016 to
2040, the GHG emissions are expected to decrease to 3625 kt CO2eq.,
corresponding to a decrease of 33 per cent. The accounting quantities estimated
under the Kyoto Protocol and under the EU LULUCF regulation are different from
the UNFCCC estimates.
The Danish forests are expected to be a steady sink in the coming years, which is
primarily due to the expectations of an increase of forest area with the related
increase in Carbon (C) stock. No data has been projected for the Danish forest for
year 2040, hence these data should be taken with concern, as the figures are not
validated.
In total from 1990 to 2040, an afforestation of 135 309 hectares is expected (excl.
Christmas trees), while the deforestation is only expected to include 10 990
hectares (excl. Christmas trees). The total area with Christmas trees is around 35
000 hectares of which 10 000 are inside the forest and the remaining planted in
agricultural fields. The area is assumed to be fairly constant. The deforestation
area is due to conversion to settlements and new roads, or more open areas in the
forests. Forest land remaining forest land is expected to be a small sink in the near
future.
Cropland (CL) and grassland (GL) are major sources, primarily due to the large area
with cultivated organic soil in Denmark. The steady extensification of the CL area
on organic soil towards permanent GL and the conversion to wetlands leads to a
decrease in emission until 2040. Currently, the agricultural mineral soils are near a
carbon balance, but in the future the carbon stock in mineral agricultural soils is
expected to increase, as a general increase in the harvest yield of 5 % is expected,
because the Danish farmers are allowed to increase the fertilization rate from
2016 and onwards. In the projection of the emission from mineral soils is used a
dynamic temperature modelling tool (C-TOOL ver. 2.3.). The projected
temperature is based on an expected temperature increase combined with a
naturally temperature variability (observed data from 1994 to 2017) as
recommended by the Danish Meteorological Institute. The emissions from CL are
80
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0081.png
expected to decrease over time but still be a major source due to large emissions
from organic soils.
The area reported under GL is assumed stable with only minor changes.
For wetlands (WE), only emissions from managed WE are reported and not
naturally occurring moors and other wetlands. The overall trend for WE is a
decreasing emission from WE remaining WE, caused by a decreasing peat
excavation in Denmark. Peat excavation is expected to cease completely by 2029.
Land converted to WE is expected to increase due to the current ongoing program
running from 2016 to 2020, for conversion of agricultural organic soil to WE.
Settlements (SE) are expected to have increasing emissions, because of the steady
land-use change to SE and especially from CL. The increasing emissions are caused
by a loss of Soil Organic Carbon (SOC), because the default carbon stock in SE is
lower than for the land, from which it is converted.
Harvested Wood Products (HWP) is estimated to be a small sink due to an
increased logging in the Danish forests.
Sensitive assumptions and uncertainties affect key results. Eg. in the LULUCF
sector there is uncertainty associated with assumptions regarding the harvest of
crops and wood, the sample based methodology used in the National Forest
Inventory, temperature in the modelling of soil carbon etc.
The waste sector
The waste sector primarily includes methane emissions from solid waste disposal
(SWDS) at landfills and from biological treatment of solid waste (composting and
biogas plants) as well as methane and nitrous oxide emissions from waste water
treatment and discharge.
Total greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the waste sector have decreased 30 per
cent from 1816 kt CO2eq. in 1990 to 1271 kt CO2eq. in 2016.
The estimation of methane emissions from landfills are based on national statistics
and projections regarding the landfill waste categories reported in the national
waste statistics. The total amount of waste deposited at landfills are fluctuating,
while a continuous decrease in the amount of organic degradable waste reaches a
constant level in the period 2005 to 2016. The high value for total waste in 2010-
2012 is caused by changes to the data system and registration of more inert waste
than in preceding or following years. For the future, the Danish EPA projects the
total amount of primary waste to increase to 13400 kt in 2030. Of this amount, 4.4
81
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0082.png
%, i.e. 590 kt, is deposited at landfills. The projected waste amounts are excluding
sludge and stones.
In the present projection of methane emissions from SWDSs, the characteristics of
waste type distributions have been set constant throughout the projection period.
The waste type soil and stone does not influence the modelled methane emissions
as soil and stone are characterized as inert waste fractions.
The reason for the sharp decrease in historical data on deposited amounts of
organic waste in the period 1990-2009, is to be found in a combination of the
Danish waste strategies and action plans including goals for a continued
minimising of the amount of deposited waste in favor of an increased reuse and
combustion for energy production. Even though the percentage of waste being
deposited at landfills is decreasing to 4.4 % in 2030, the total amount of waste is
increasing from 10 600 kt in 2012 to 13 400 kt in 2030, which causes the absolute
amount of waste being deposited at landfills to increase slightly.
The impact of implementing the biocover instrument has also been included in the
projected methane emissions, but not in the November 2018 GHG projection
report.
Methane emissions from anaerobic treatment processes are estimated on the
basis of the historical and projected gross energy production. For the projection
results presented in this report from the DECO18, a leakage rate of 2.2 per cent in
biogas plants has been assumed.
The direct and indirect nitrous oxide emission from wastewater treatment
processes is calculated based on country specific and process specific emission
factors and the amount of nitrogen in the influent and effluent wastewater,
respectively.
For the total nitrogen content in the effluents, the contribution from separate
industries, rainwater conditioned effluents, scattered settlements and
aquaculture, a decreasing trend followed by a close to constant level is observed
and the 2016 effluent level are kept constant throughout the projection period.
The total N content in the influent and effluent from waste water treatment plants
is increasing according to population statistics for the projection period.
Sensitive assumptions and uncertainties affect key results. Eg. in the waste sector
there is uncertainty associated with the amount of biodegradable waste going to
landfills in the past (before 1997), effects of biocovers, leakage rates in biogas
pla ts i luded u de the aste se to s atego
iologi al t eat e t of aste
such as slurry, manure and other waste products used in biogas plants) etc.
82
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0083.png
(iii) Global energy trends, international fossil fuel prices, EU ETS carbon price
Danish projections in DECO18 use the scenarios of ENTSO-E as a means to include
expectations of future infrastructure, including the development of the electriciy
market in neigbouring countries. Such scenarios are described in ENTSO-E
s
socalled TYNDP plans.
Table 3. Assumptions regarding fuel prices
Industry &
Import prices (US$)
Central Power Plants
Decentral
Power Plants
Gas/
Natural
Coal Crude oil Gas Coal Fuel oil Diesel
gas
oil
2017 23,0 62,2
2018 23,9 67,6
2019 22,0 68,3
2020 20,2 69,3
2021 20,1 71,0
2022 19,9 72,8
2023 19,6 74,4
2024 19,8 76,1
2025 19,9 77,7
2026 20,2 80,4
2027 20,3 82,4
39,5 24,3 48,8
42,1 25,2 54,3
39,7 23,3 55,0
35,4 21,5 55,9
36,3 21,4 57,7
37,7 21,2 59,4
39,0 20,9 61,1
40,2 21,1 62,8
41,3 21,2 64,4
42,9 21,5 67,0
44,2 21,6 69,1
83,5
88,9
89,6
90,5
92,3
94,1
95,7
97,4
99,0
42,0
44,6
42,1
37,9
38,8
40,2
41,4
42,6
43,8
oil
95,3
100,8
101,5
102,4
104,2
105,9
107,6
109,3
110,9
113,5
115,6
113,1 111,7 111,7
118,6 117,1 117,1
119,3 117,9 117,9
120,2 118,8 118,8
122,0 120,5 120,5
123,8 122,3 122,3
125,4 124,0 124,0
127,1 125,6 125,6
128,7 127,2 127,2
131,3 129,9 129,9
133,4 132,0 132,0
81,5
86,9
87,7
88,6
90,3
92,1
93,8
95,4
97,0
99,7
101,8
Diesel
Petrol Diesel
oil
Gas/
Heating
JP1
Households
Airports
101,7 45,3
103,7 46,7
83
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0084.png
2028 20,5 84,4
2029 20,7 86,3
2030 20,8 88,2
45,5 21,8 71,1
46,8 22,0 73,0
48,0 22,1 74,8
105,7 48,0
107,6 49,2
109,4 50,5
117,6
119,5
121,3
135,4 134,0 134,0
137,3 135,8 135,8
139,1 137,7 137,7
103,7
105,6
107,5
Table 4. Assumptions, CO2 prices (in DKK):
CO2-kvotepris
2017 43,5
2018 44,7
2019 46,3
2020 48,1
2021 50,5
2022 53,0
2023 55,7
2024 58,8
2025 62,3
2026 66,1
2027 70,0
2028 74,2
2029 78,6
2030 83,3
(iv) Technology cost developments
84
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0085.png
The Danish Energy Agency and Energinet (the Danish TSO) in cooperation regularly
issue reports on the cost development of energy technologies. These reports
contain information about technological, economic and environmental factors for
a range of energy installations, and are, inter alia, used as a basis for the annual
Danish Energy and Climate Outlook (DECO) projections.
More details can be found here (in Danish)
https://ens.dk/service/fremskrivninger-analyser-modeller/teknologikataloger
Key assumptions for electricity and district heating technologies used in the most
recent report from March 2018 can be found here:
https://ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/Analyser/technology_data_for_energy_plants_el
_and_dh_2016_updated2018marts.xlsx
4.2 Dimension Decarbonisation
4.2.1 GHG emissions and removals
(i) Trends in current GHG emissions and removals in the EU ETS, Effort Sharing
Regulation and LULUCF sectors and different energy sectors
The trends in current Danish GHG emissions and removals 1990-2016 as reported
under UNFCCC in April 2018 are shown in Table 5 and Figures 3[a], -[b], -[c], -[d]
and
–(e).
The trends are shown by gas, by IPCC sectors, in the EU ETS sectors (for the period
before the EU ETS, i.e. 1990-2004, non-ETS proxy-estimates are shown) , in the
non-ETS sectors (a proxy for emissions in the ESR sectors
56
as reporting of these
emissions will not start until 2023), the LULUCF sector (as reported under the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and as the quantities to
be accounted for under the Kyoto Protocol and the EU LULUCF-regulation
57
) and
different energy sectors.
56
ESR or Effort Sharing Regulation: REGULATION (EU) 2018/842 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE
COUNCIL of 30 May 2018 on binding annual greenhouse gas emission reductions by Member States from
2021 to 2030 contributing to climate action to meet commitments under the Paris Agreement and amending
Regulation (EU) No 525/2013
LULUCF-regulation: REGULATION (EU) 2018/841 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 30
May 2018 on the inclusion of greenhouse gas emissions and removals from land use, land use change and
forestry in the 2030 climate and energy framework, and amending Regulation (EU) No 525/2013 and
Decision No 529/2013/EU
85
57
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0086.png
The latest inventory for Denmark in the EU reported in April 2018 under the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) shows a 28
per cent decrease in total Danish greenhouse gas emissions (without LULUCF, with
indirect CO2) from 70.4 MtCO2eq. in 1990 to 50.5 MtCO2eq. in 2016.
86
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0087.png
Table 5
Trends in current Danish GHG emissions and removals 1990-2016 as
reported under UNFCCC in April 2018 - by gas, by IPCC sectors, in the EU ETS, in EU
non-ETS (ESD/ESR), the LULUCF sector and different energy sectors
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
CO2 emissions w ithout net CO2 from LULUCF
CO2 emissions w ith net CO2 from LULUCF
CH4 emissions w ithout CH4 from LULUCF
CH4 emissions w ith CH4 from LULUCF
N2O emissions w ithout N2O from LULUCF
N2O emissions w ith N2O from LULUCF
HFCs
PFCs
Unspecified mix of HFCs and PFCs
SF6
NF3
Total (w ithout LULUCF)
Total (w ith LULUCF)
Total (w ithout LULUCF, w ith indirect CO2)
Total (w ith LULUCF, w ith indirect CO2)
1990
53601
58346
7629
7645
7972
8000
NO,NA
NO,NA
NO,NA
42
NO,NA
69245
74033
70408
75196
1995
61628
65064
8060
8084
7236
7263
242
1
NO,NA
102
NO,NA
77269
80756
78345
81833
2000
54308
57774
7920
7953
6976
7003
704
23
2005 2010 2015 2016
51532
56059
7683
7725
5507
5534
933
19
49292
48415
7362
7412
5223
5250
951
19
35315
39446
6907
6964
5231
5265
639
5
37117
42437
7022
7082
5346
5379
611
4
CO2 equivalent (kt)
NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA
56
20
36
103
92
NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA
69986
73512
70783
74309
65694
70290
66321
70917
62883
62083
63342
62542
48200
52421
48502
52724
50191
55605
50478
55892
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES
1. Energy (w ith indirect CO2)
2. Industrial processes and product use
3. Agriculture
4. Land use, land-use change and forestry
5. Waste
6. Other
1990
53574
2344
12673
4789
1816
NO
1995
61675
2883
12135
3487
1653
NO
2000
54341
3636
11262
3526
1543
NO
2005 2010 2015 2016
51405
2794
10818
4596
1304
NO
49679
2036
10408
-801
1218
NO
34950
1998
10392
4222
1162
NO
36549
2124
10534
5413
1271
NO
CO2 equivalent (kt)
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
in EU ETS and non-ETS SECTOR CATEGORIES
EU ETS (CO2 emissions from stationary installations also included in the inventory)
[1990-2004: PROXY estimates]
EU ETS (CO2 emissions from domestic aviation also included in the inventory)
EU ETS (Total CO2 em issions in ETS also included in the inventory)
[1990-2004: PROXY estim ates]
Non-ETS GHG em issions, w ithout LULUCF, w ith indirect CO2
(2013-2020: ESD / 2021-2030: ESR) [1990-2004: PROXY estim ates]
1990
29356
251
29607
40801
1995
36239
246
36485
41861
2000
29733
194
29927
40856
2005 2010 2015 2016
26476
177
26653
39668
25266
179
25445
37897
15796
130
15926
32576
17220
133
17354
33125
CO2 equivalent (kt)
GREENHOUSE GAS NET EMISSIONS
in the LULUCF SECTOR in the inventory under the UNFCCC
LULUCF under the UNFCCC
(net em issions from "4. Land use, land-use change and forestry")
LULUCF accounting quantities (net credits if negative):
KP1(2008-2012), KP2(2013-2020), EU/LULUCF(2021-2030)
1990
4789
NA
1995
3487
NA
2000
3526
NA
2005 2010 2015 2016
4596
NA
-801
-1405
4222
-1353
5413
-203
CO2 equivalent (kt)
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
in the different ENERGY SECTORS
1. Energy (w ith indirect CO2)
A. Fuel combustion (sectoral approach) (w ith indirect CO2)
1. Energy industries (w ith indirect CO2)
2. Manufacturing industries and construction
3. Transport
4. Other sectors
5. Other
B. Fugitive emissions from fuels
1. Solid fuels
2. Oil and natural gas and other emissions from energy production
C. CO2 transport and storage
1990
53574
53058
27414
5436
10775
9261
170
517
NO
517
NO
1995
61675
60975
33637
5924
12103
8989
323
699
NO
699
NO
2000
54341
53252
26848
5934
12491
7779
201
1090
NO
1090
NO
2005 2010 2015 2016
51405
50529
23796
5453
13619
7282
379
877
NO
877
NO
49679
49112
24539
4442
13407
6514
209
568
NO
568
NO
34950
34559
13202
3862
12696
4600
199
391
NO
391
NO
36549
36130
14335
3938
12987
4661
209
419
NO
419
NO
CO2 equivalent (kt)
NO = Not Occurring, NA = Not Applicable
87
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0088.png
CO2 emissions in the EU ETS sectors included in the Danish GHG inventory (i.e.
primarily from stationary installations) have decreased with 35 per cent from 26.7
MtCO2 in 2005 to 17.4 MtCO2 in 2016. The verified emissions from stationary
installations for 2017 show a further decrease to 15.1 MtCO2 equal to 44 per cent
decrease from 2005..
From 2005 to 2016 Danish greenhouse gas emissions in the non-ETS sectors have
been reduced by 17 percent from 39.7 MtCO2eq. in 2005 to 33.1 MtCO2eq. in
2016. Reporting of greenhouse gas emissions under the EU ESR will not start until
2023 for 2021, which is the first emission year in the ESR period 2021-2030.
In 2016 the net emissions from the LULUCF sector - as reported under the UNFCCC
- were 13 per cent above the net emissions in 1990. From the detailed LULUCF
inventory it can be seen that the most significant change in absolute net emissions
is in the category Forests Land, which has changed from a net sink of 0.553
MtCO2eq. in 1990 to a net source of 0.913 MtCO2eq. in 2016. However, this
cannot be seen as a general trend in this sector. The reporting of annual values
cannot be considered statistically significant, as the sampling error on reporting
annual changes exceeds the magnitude of the change. This goes even if the error
estimates are small compared to the total stock (1.6-1.7 %). This is due to the size
of the carbon stocks and the small changes between subsequent years. Trends
should be evaluated at larger time frames, minimum 5 year time spans. Applying
models may reduce the apparent uncertainty, but do not reflect observed values.
Increasing sample size would be highly costly and may still not provide statistically
significant change estimates on annual basis.
The LULUCF accounting quantities (negative numbers: net credits / positive
numbers: net debits) reported under the Kyoto Protocol are also shown for the
years 2008-2016 in Table 5 and Figure 3(d).
(ii) Projections of sectorial developments with existing national and Union policies
and measures at least until 2040 (including for the year 2030)
The trends in projected Danish GHG emissions and removals (without/with
LULUCF, without/with indirect CO2) 2020-2040 with the effects of existing
national and EU policies and measures as of April 2018 (i.e. the WEM-scenario) are
shown in Table 6 and Figures 3 [a], [b], [c], -[d] and
–[e].
In table 6 and Figures 3
[a], [b], [c] and [e] greenhouse gas emissions after 2030 are projected to be on the
same level as in 2030 as the April 2018 projection ends in 2030. Consolidated
projections until 2040 will be elaborated in 2019 and included in the final
integrated national energy and climate plan.
88
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0089.png
The trends are shown by gas, by IPCC sectors, in the EU ETS sectors, in the EU non-
ETS sectors (as proxy for the ESR sectors), in the LULUCF sector in the UNFCCC
format, as projected LULUCF accountin quantities to be accounted for under the
EU LULUCF-regulation (and presumably also under the Paris Agreement
58
), and
different energy sectors.
58
The so-called Paris Agreement rule-book has not yet been adopted.
89
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0090.png
Table 6
Projections of sectorial developments in Danish greenhouse gas emissions
2020-2040 with the effects of existing national and EU policies and measures as of
April 2018 (the WEM-scenario) - by gas, by IPCC sector, in the EU ETS, in EU non-
ETS (ESD/ESR), the LULUCF
59
sector and different energy
59
A minor update of the LULUCF projection, published in October 2018, has been included.
90
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0091.png
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
CO2 emissions w ithout net CO2 from LULUCF
CO2 emissions w ith net CO2 from LULUCF
CH4 emissions w ithout CH4 from LULUCF
CH4 emissions w ith CH4 from LULUCF
N2O emissions w ithout N2O from LULUCF
N2O emissions w ith N2O from LULUCF
HFCs
PFCs
Unspecified mix of HFCs and PFCs
SF6
NF3
Total (without LULUCF)
Total (with LULUCF)
Total (w ithout LULUCF, w ith indirect CO2)
Total (with LULUCF, with indirect CO2 )
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
CO2 equivalent (kt)
31218 34133 39172 39172 39172
33685 35903 40991 40991 40991
6516
6588
5340
5371
418
3
6600
6678
5393
5425
197
2
6627
6711
5464
5497
104
1
6627
6711
5464
5497
104
1
6627
6711
5464
5497
104
1
NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA
57
32
33
33
33
NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA NO,NA
43130 45968 51048 51085 51092
45694 47841 52976 53013 53021
43553 46357 51401 51401 51401
46116 48230 53329 53329 53329
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES
1. Energy (w ith indirect CO2)
2. Industrial processes and product use
3. Agriculture
4. Land use, land-use change and forestry
5. Waste
6. Other
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
CO2 equivalent (kt)
30115 32858 37793 37793 37793
2077
2038
1999
1999
1999
10383 10516 10706 10706 10706
2563
978
NO
1873
945
NO
1928
903
NO
1928
903
NO
1928
903
NO
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
in EU ETS and non-ETS SECTOR CATEGORIES
EU ETS (CO2 emissions from stationary installations also included in the inventory)
[1990-2004: PROXY estimates]
EU ETS (CO2 emissions from domestic aviation also included in the inventory)
EU ETS (Total CO2 em issions in ETS also included in the inventory)
[1990-2004: PROXY estim ates]
Non-ETS GHG em issions, w ithout LULUCF, w ith indirect CO2
(2013-2020: ESD / 2021-2030: ESR) [1990-2004: PROXY estim ates]
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
CO2 equivalent (kt)
11558 14648 20300 20300 20300
138
142
148
148
148
11696 14790 20448 20448 20448
31857 31567 30953 30953 30953
GREENHOUSE GAS NET EMISSIONS
in the LULUCF SECTOR in the inventory under the UNFCCC
LULUCF under the UNFCCC
(net em issions from "4. Land use, land-use change and forestry")
LULUCF accounting quantities (net credits if negative):
KP1(2008-2012), KP2(2013-2020), EU/LULUCF(2021-2030)
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
CO2 equivalent (kt)
2563
-3059
1873
-1378
1928
-1286
1928
NE
1928
NE
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
in the different ENERGY SECTORS
1. Energy (w ith indirect CO2)
A. Fuel combustion (sectoral approach) (w ith indirect CO2)
1. Energy industries (w ith indirect CO2)
2. Manufacturing industries and construction
3. Transport
4. Other sectors
5. Other
B. Fugitive emissions from fuels
1. Solid fuels
2. Oil and natural gas and other emissions from energy production
C. CO2 transport and storage
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
CO2 equivalent (kt)
30115 32858 37793 37793 37793
29888 32522 37546 37546 37546
9237 11609 16915 16915 16915
3493
3835
4049
4049
4049
13019 13126 12938 12938 12938
3934
205
226
NO
226
NO
3747
205
336
NO
336
NO
3439
205
247
NO
247
NO
3439
205
247
NO
247
NO
3439
205
247
NO
247
NO
NO = Not Occurring, NA = Not Applicable , NE: not estimated
The latest baseline projection with the effects of existing national and EU policies
and measures as of April 2018 (the 2018 WEM scenario) shows a 37 percent
decrease in total Danish greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 2020 (without
LULUCF, with indirect CO
2
). As new national and policies and measures with a view
to ea hi g De a k s EU ESR ta get fo
a d the edu tio path
-2029
91
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0092.png
was not yet adopted at the time of the elaboration of the 2018 baseline
projection, no further reductions until 2030. An increase at approximately 9
percent was projected from 2020 to 2030 (9.0 percent).
Regarding CO2 emissions in the EU ETS sectors included in the Danish GHG
inventory (i.e. primarily from stationary installations) a 55 per cent decrease from
26.7 MtCO2 in 2005 to 12.0 MtCO2 in 2020 was projected in April 2018. Also in
the EU ETS sectors no further reductions until 2030 were projected as the
projection was elaborated before the adoption of additional policies and
measures. On the contrary increases were projected from 2020 to 2030 (35 per
cent).
From 2005 to 2020 Danish greenhouse gas emissions in the non-EU ETS sectors
were projected in April 2018 to decrease 19 percent from 39.7 MtCO2eq. in 2005
to 32.1 MtCO2eq. in 2020. In the EU non-ETS sectors further reductions from 2020
until 2030 (0.8 percent) were projected before the adoption of additional policies
and measures.
The net emissions from the LULUCF sector
–
in the UNFCCC-format
–
are projected
to have decreased 46 percent in 2020 compared to 1990 in the updated LULUCF
projection from October 2018. A further 14 percent point decrease is projected
from 2020 to 2030. The LULUCF accounting quantity is projected to stabilize
around 1.3 MtCO2eq. in annual net credits until 2030. The accounting quantities
have not been projected beyond 2030 as future rules for the accounting of
LULUCF after 2030 is uncertain.
92
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0093.png
Figures 3 [a], [b],-[c], -[d] and -[e]]
Trends in current (1990-2016 as reported under UNFCCC in April 2018) and
projected (2017-2040 from the latest baseline projection with the effects of
existing national and EU policies and measures as of April 2018– i.e. the WEM-
scenario) - by gas [a], by IPCC sectors [b], in the EU ETS and in EU non-ETS
(ESD/ESR) sectors [c], the LULUCF sector [d] and different energy sectors [e]
[a]
Total greenhouse gas emissions
–
by gas (ktCO2eq.)
93
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0094.png
[b]
Total greenhouse gas emissions
–
by IPCC sector (ktCO2eq.)
[c]
Greenhouse gas emissions in the EU ETS and in EU non-ETS (ESD/ESR) sectors
(ktCO2eq.)
94
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0095.png
[d]
Greenhouse gas emissions and accounting quantities in the LULUCF (ktCO2eq.)
[e]
Greenhouse gas emissions in different energy sectors (ktCO2eq.)
4.2.2 Renewable energy
(i) Current share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption and in
different sectors (heating and cooling, electricity and transport) as well as per
technology in each of these sectors
95
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0096.png
(ii) Indicative projections of development with existing policies for the year 2030
(with an outlook to the year 2040)
Table 1 shows current as well as projected (I & ii) RE shares (total, electricity,
district heating, and transportation). Projections are based on the Danish Energy
and Climate Outlook 2018, DECO18, adjusted for effects of the Energy Agreement
of 29 June 2018 where policies and measures have been defined. Projections
going beyond 2030 are currently not available, but will be considered as part of
the final National Energy and Climate Plan in 2019.
Table 2 shows a breakdown of the overall RE share (RES) projection by RE source /
technology to the extent this is possible. Some of the RE deployment will take
place through technology neutral tenders, hence it is not possible to project
shares for this part. Projections for 2030-40 are currently not available.
The Danish Government has, in its Political Platform 2016, a goal of covering at
least 50 pct. of Danish energy consumption by renewable energy by 2030. The
implementation of the Energy Agreement of 29 June 2018, adopted by all Parties
of the Danish Parliament, is expected to lead to a RE deployment which will bring
the RE share to approximately 55 pct. in 2030. As shown in Table 1, some policies
and measures are still to be defined to achieve this.
Integration of renewable energy in the energy supply sector and energy efficiency
are both cornerstones in the Governments long-term target for making the Danish
energy system independent of fossil fuels by 2050 as well as the 2050 low-
emission society framework of the 29 June Energy Agreement
The Danish Energy and Climate Outlook 2018 (DECO18) shows how energy
consumption and production, as well as greenhouse gas emissions develop
to a ds
, ased o e isti g poli ies a d easu es, i.e. a f oze poli ies
approach. The renewables share is expected to be 42.0% in 2020, whereby
Denmark will have met, and exceeded, its EU obligation for a 30% renewables
share by 2020.
The new Energy Agreement of 29 June 2018 covers the period 2020-2024, but will
have sigficant effects of the development beyond this period, shown in Table 1
and Table 2 below.
96
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0097.png
Table 7. RE Shares, projections 2020-2030 (with statistics from 2016) with
existing policies and measures and effects of Energy Agreement of 29 June 2018,
except where policies and measures in the agreement which cannot be
quantified currently.
RE Share RES Electricity
(RES)
(RES-E)
2016
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
31%
42%
44%
44%
44%
44%
45%
45%
46%
46%
47%
48%
55%
80%
85%
85%
85%
85%
85%
85%
85%
85%
90%
90%
RES District Heating
(RES-DH)
54%
73%
74%
74%
74%
74%
74%
74%
74%
75%
75%
75%
RES Transport
(RES-T)
7%
9%
9%
9%
9%
10%
10%
11%
12%
12%
13%
13%
*Note:
Red data is statistics,
Black data is model projections
According to the Energy Agreement, funds are allocated that sets a course
towards a Renewable Energy share of approximately 55 pct. by 2030, and a RE
sha e i ele t i it a o e
% o su ptio . Nu e s i Ta le o l ea h
pct. and 90 pct. respectively, due to the fact that that it is currently not possible to
quantify the effects of the implementation of all Policies and Measures in the
E e g Ag ee e t, ota l the Rese e fo additio al i est e ts i RE f o
.
97
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0098.png
Table 8. RE shares (RES) projections 2017-2030 by source / technology with
existing policie and measures, including effects of Energy Agreement of 29 June
2018.
Heat pumps Tender -
&
Solid
Solar
technology
MSW
Biofuels Biogas Wind PV
to be
Biomass
heating
Geothermal decided
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
19%
20%
21%
21%
21%
21%
20%
20%
20%
19%
19%
19%
19%
19%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
8% 1%
9% 1%
10% 1%
10% 1%
12% 1%
12% 1%
12% 1%
12% 1%
12% 1%
12% 1%
13% 1%
13% 1%
14% 1%
14% 1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
4%
4%
4%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
RES
2017
35,40%
2018
38,50%
2019
40,30%
2020
42,00%
2021
43,80%
2022
44,30%
2023
44,40%
2024
44,50%
2025
44,70%
2026
45,30%
2027
46,20%
2028
46,40%
2029
47,20%
2030
47,60%
See the above
98
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0099.png
4.3 Dimension Energy efficiency
(i) Current primary and final energy consumption in the economy and per sector
(including industry, residential, service and transport)
Table 9. Primary and final energy consumption
2016
Total primary energy consumption
Total final energy consumption
1
Adjusted, PJ
Adjusted, PJ
Adjusted, PJ
PJ
Adjusted, PJ
Adjusted, PJ
770
629
86
214
196
83
Final energy consumption
–
industry
(manufacturing)
Final energy consumption
–
transport
Final energy consumption - households
Final energy consumption
–
services
These figures include 10,5 PJ non-energy use.
Source: Danish Energy Statistic 2016
(ii) Current potential for the application of high-efficiency cogeneration and
efficient district heating and cooling
60
A comprehensive assessment of the potential for the application of high efficiency
cogeneration and efficient district heating and cooling in Denmark was delivered
to the Commission in December 2015 in accordance with article 14, 1 in Directive
2012/27/EU.
(iii) Projections considering existing energy efficiency policies, measures and
programmes as described under 1.2. ii) for primary and final energy consumption
for each sector at least until 2040 (including for the year 2030)
61
It is currently not possible to report on point 4.3 (iii). We aim at reporting on this
matter in the first Danish National Energy and Climate Plan.
(iv) Cost-optimal levels of minimum energy performance requirements resulting
from national calculations, according to Article 5 of Directive 2010/31/EU
In accordance with Article 14(1) of Directive 2012/27/EU.
This reference business as usual projection shall be the basis for the 2030 final and primary energy
consumption target which is described in 2.3 and for conversion factors.
61
60
99
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0100.png
Denmark has submitted the latest cost-optimal report to the Commission on
March 23, 2018. The cost-optimal report shows the following overall conclusions:
In general, the overall level for requirements for new buildings is a little tighter
than what is required by the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD).
The weighted average for new buildings shows that the Danish requirements are
21 percent tighter than the cost-optimal level. However, there are variations
between different types of buildings.
For building elements that are subject to a renovation, the requirements are also
near the cost-optimal point. The calculations show variations for different types of
constructions depending on the starting point of the insulation levels of the
existing constructions.
For buildings undergoing major renovation, the building regulations include
renovation classes that can be used. The levels in these classes have been
evaluated in the cost-optimal report, and the report showed that the level was not
sufficiently tight. The weighted average showed that the requirement in average
was 30 percent from the cost-optimal point. After the cost-optimal report was
published, the levels of the renovation classes have been lowered. The renovation
classes, therefore, are now within the cost-optimal range.
Overall, the report shows that Denmark fulfills the requirements of cost-optimal
levels in building regulations.
4.4 Dimension Energy security
(i) Current energy mix, domestic energy resources, import dependency, including
relevant risks
Stable and reliable energy supply is considered a prerequisite for the Danish
society. The effectiveness and functioning of the economy, public organizations
and private households depend on a reliable energy supply. In Denmark the
transition forces a change in domestic energy mix towards a more flexible use of
energy sources and a increase in interconnective capacity. Different biofuels are
integrated in thermal heat and power plants while fluctuating electricity producers
are integrated in the electricity system, both in large scale as offshore wind farms
an in small scale in household solar panels. The development of interconnection
between subsectors combined with cross boarders enables an efficient use of
fluctuating energy sources. Therefore both legislative and governance measures
are being implemented in order to promote further integration international and
intra sectorial. The international dimension is vital to a small country like
Denmark, linking Scandinavia to the continent, and the North Sea to the Baltic Sea.
The geographic situation gives Denmark extraordinary conditions for import and
export of energy, whether it is fossil fuels, biomass transported by sea or
100
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0101.png
electricity. Denmark supports further international cooperation in regards to
energy supply and further development of an open market for electricity and
natural gas. Denmark is a netexporter of natural gas and oil from offshore fields in
the North Sea. The importance of natural gas in the Danish energy supply has
been decreasing in the last decade. This development is expected to continue in
the following years as natural gas is expected to cover respectively about 15 % in
2023, 14 % in 2023 and 12 % in 2030 of the total Danish energy mix. The figures
include biogas injected into the gas pipeline system.
The present Danish energy mix consists of multiple energy sources for thermal
production facilities, injection in the gas system and for integration in the
electricity system. The district heating sector is interconnected with the electricity
sector since most production plants have dual purpose in producing both heating
and electricity as well an increasing capacity to consume electricity in the district
heating sector by introducing heating boilers.
The heating is increasingly being produced by renewables primarily biomass
whereas the consumption of Coal in the heating sector is decreasing and the
consumption of natural gas is almost stable:
Figure 4. Fuel consumption for district heating production
The
production of Eletricity also has an increasing amount of biomass as is shown in
101
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0102.png
[table 2]. However thermal heat and power plants typically have the ability to shift
between different sources, so that both biomass and coal can be consumed, this
reduces the import dependency of single fuels. Since coal has to be imported and
some biofuels are domestic produced the import dependency is reduce in general.
Historically Denmark have bought coal on the international marked, which
includes import of coal from
China, India, the United States, Australia, Indonesia,
Russia and South Africa.
The powerplants have been able to produce full load
substituting coal with oil, making the dependency of coal less critical.
Figure 5. electricity production after used fuel
https://ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/Statistik/estat2016.pdf
In general the increasing diversity and the increasing flexibility of the electricity
production and heating production systems have increased energy independency.
However the interconnectors with neighbouring countries have an increasing
importance in balancing the electricity system. The balancing of the electricity
system is a delicate matter relying on digital solutions for real time data, function
markets and available control systems. Manipulation, disturbance and breakdown
in vital digital systems is an increasing risk for the security of supply as a result.
Denmark
102
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0103.png
(ii) Projections of development with existing policies and measures at least until
2040 (including for the year 2030)
Denmark does not have national objectives for reducing the energy import
dependency of third countries, since these dependencies are limited due to the
diversification of energy sources and the production of oil and gas within
Denmark. The dependency on import of coal is decreasing as result of integration
of more renewable energy, however the transition towards integration of
renewables leads to that Denmark is however increasingly dependent on
interconnectors for electricity and natural gas from neighbouring countries and
increasing dependent on a functioning market for electricity across the Nordic
region. This increased dependency is therefore a result of ongoing transformation
of the Danish energy system.
In recognition of the importance of digital solutions for ensuring the security of
supply and the risk that the vast use of digital systems pose to the system,
Denmark has developed a strategy for cybersecurity that has a specific focus on
systems in the energy sector.
4.5 Dimension Internal energy market
4.5.1 Electricity interconnectivity
(i) Current interconnection level and main interconnectors
62
The current interconnection level in Denmark is at 50,6%. The level is calculated as
a ratio between import interconnection and net generation capacities of the
country. The current interconnectors are listed below in table 10
Tabel 10. Current interconnectors
62
With reference to overviews of existing transmission infrastructure by Transmission System Operators (TSOs).
103
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0104.png
Name
Skagerrak 1-4
Konti-Skan 1-2
Kassø-Audorf
Storebælt
Øresund
Kontek
64
Price areas connected
DK1 -NO1
DK1-SE3
DK1-DE
DK2 -SE4
DK1-DK2
DK2-SE4
DK2-DE
65
63
Capacity [MW]
1700
740
2500
60
600
1300/1700
66
Bornholm-Sweden
585
Furthermore the interconnectors listed below are under construction
Tabel 11. Future interconnectors
Name
CobraCABLE
Kriegers Flak
CGS
Viking Link
Endrup-Niebüll
Price areas
connected
DK1-NL
DK2-DE
DK1-UK
DK1-DE
Capacity [MW]
700
400
1400
1000
Commissioning
year
2019
2019
2023
2023
(ii) Projections of interconnector expansion requirements (including for the year
2030)
67
Currently Energinet is undertaking an analysis on the future level of security of
supply in DK2 given that more and more thermal power plants will be closing in
the near future. In ENTSO-E
s Te
-Year Network Development plan 2016 a third
interconector (Kontek 2) between DK2 and DE is also mentioned. On the longer
horizon Energinet and TenneT along with several other project partners launched
the North Sea Energy Hub in 2017. The projects concerns the construction of
island in the North Sea which will serve as a hub for offshore wind power
production in the North Sea and the island will be connected to the Netherlands,
Denmark and Germany and possibly other countries as well. However the project
63
DK1 consists of Jutland and Funen
The present interconnector capacity is 1500 MW from Germany and 1780 MW towards Germany,
however the interconnector is currently being upgraded to a capacity 2500 MW in both
directions.
DK2 consists of Zealand, Lolland, Falster and Bornholm
1700 MW export capacity to Sweden and 1300 MW import capacity from Sweden
With reference to national network development plans and regional investment plans of TSOs.
104
64
65
66
67
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0105.png
is still in the initial stage where feasibility studies on a wide range of topics are
being conducted to determine whether or not to take the project to the next
stage. The project is part of ENTSO-E
s Te
-Year Network Development Plan 2016,
however the project will probably only be realised after 2030. On top of this a
number of interconnectors are approaching their end-of-life, and so a decision has
to be made whether or not extend the life of these or built a brand new
interconnector or whether some other solution might be more viable. However no
decision has been made in terms of realisation of the interconnectors mentioned
above.
4.5.2 Energy transmission infrastructure
(i) Key characteristics of the existing transmission infrastructure for electricity and
gas
68
Electricity
Denmark is divided into 2 price areas, Western Denmark and Eastern Denmark
separated by Storebælt. Western Denmark is connected and is operated in
synchrony with the continental European grid and Eastern Denmark runs in
synchrony with the Nordic grid. Western and Eastern Denmark are only connected
through the Storebælt-interconnector.
Table 12. Length of overhead lines and cables per voltage level
Tracé-km
132 kV
150 kV
220 kV
400 kV
Sum
Overhead
lines
753
1.216
40
946
2.956
Cables
476
605
84
114
1.279
Sum
1.228
1.822
124
1.061
4.235
Table13. Number of substations and transformers
Number
132 kV
Substations
75
Transformers
112
68
With reference to overviews of existing transmission infrastructure by TSOs.
105
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0106.png
150 kV
220 kV
400 kV
Sum
78
5
26
184
107
5
30
254
Gas
The Danish gas transmission system (80 bar) is owned and operated by Energinet,
the Danish TSO. The gas grid is connected to natural gas fields in the North Sea
and the international gas market through three entry points (Nybro, Ellund and
Dragør) where all natural gas enters Denmark. Natural gas can be supplied to
domestic consumers using the transmission and distribution grid. The transmission
tariff varies depending on where shippers book entry and/or exit capacity.
Energinet currently expects the network code on harmonised transmission tariff
structures for gas (TAR NC) to be fully implemented by june 2019.
900 km gaslines
42 M/R stations
4 metering stations
(ii) Projections of network expansion requirements at least until 2040 (including
for the year 2030)
69
Onshore wind along with solar power are constituting a more and more
substantial part of the energy mix in Denmark, hence the growing need for the
integration of these energy sources is also reflected in the need for expansion of
the transmission grid. However also the increasing electrification of the transport
sector, and the growing number of data centres across Denmark will increase the
electricity consumption in Denmark significantly over the coming decades. In
terms of domestic heating the expected large scale implementation of heat pumps
is also expected to have a major impact on the requirements of the future
transmission grid. The maps below show some of the possible future transmission
grids as imagined by Energinet, however these possible grid structures have not
received approval, only represents how the Danish TSO imagines the transmission
grid.
69
With reference to national network development plans and regional investment plans of TSOs.
106
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0107.png
Figure 6 - Possible electricity transmission grid structure by 2027 drafted by the
Danish TSO, Energinet
-
Figure 7. Possible electricity transmission grid structure by 2040 drafted by the Danish TSO,
Energinet
107
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0108.png
4.5.3 Electricity and gas markets, energy prices
(i) Current situation of electricity and gas markets, including energy prices
Electricity
Electricity wholesale markets are generally well-functioning and integrated across
borders in the Nordic region as well as towards Germany.
In the day-ahead market, the basis for wholesale prices are formed, market-
coupling is implemented in the most of Europe, including Denmark.
Denmark is split into two bidding zones, leading to potentially different prices in
DK1 (Western Denmark) and DK2 (Eastern Denmark). Prices can vary and there
can be big differences in the hourly spot prices. On average prices are relative
close to each other, with a typically higher price in DK2.
108
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0109.png
For the winter period 2017/2018 (october 2017
–
march 2018) the average price
for the whole of Denmark was 32,8 EUR/MWh, while respectively for DK1 and DK2
it was 31,4 and 34,2 EUR/MWh
70
.
Gas
The Danish gas market is based on a entry-exit model where commercial shippers
trade and move the gas in and out of Denmark. The gas market is generally
characterized by a high degree of operational reliability and security of supply, as
well as a growing share of biomethane in the pipeline network.
Gas prices for consumers averaged 37,4 EUR/MWh in 2017, while prices for
industrial users were 24,0 EUR/MWh on average during the same period.
Figure 8: Gas prices in DK, 2013-
[€/kWh].
0,0500
0,0450
0,0400
0,0350
Euro per kWh
0,0300
0,0250
0,0200
0,0150
0,0100
0,0050
0,0000
Gas prices for
household consumers
excl. taxes and levies
Gas prices for industrial
users excl. taxes and
levies
Source: Eurostat [nrg_pc_202] and [nrg_pc_203]
70
Energitilsynet - Overvågning af det danske
Engrosmarked for elektricitet
http://energitilsynet.dk/fileadmin/Filer/Information/Diverse_publikationer_og_artikler/Halvaars
rapport_for_Vinterhalvaaret_2017.pdf
109
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0110.png
(ii) Projections of development with existing policies and measures at least until
2040 (including for the year 2030)
Electricity
According to the DECO18 scenario, with existing policies and measures, the Danish
Energy Agency calculates and publishes expected future price electricity market
prices.
The calculations are based on the mid-term adequacy report 2017, the ENTSO-E
TYNDP 2018 as well as agreed national policies and measures.
Based on these assumptions, see also the paragraphs on Electricity
interconnectivity and Energy Transmission infrastructure, the Danish Energy
agency published expected developments of wholesale prices until 2030 which are
shown in the figure below. There are no published prices for the period 2030-
2040.
The futu e e pe ted ele t i it p i e fo De a k is i easi g f o
, €/MWh
i
to , €/MWh i
. This increase of 46 pct. over 13 years is mainly
due to increased interconnectivity and higher price convergence with markets
with higher prices, higher expected coal and gas prices as well as an expected
increasing CO2 price.
110
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0111.png
Figure 9: Electricity wholesale prices for DK and selected influential other market areas 2017-2030 [2018-
€/MWh].
70
60
50
2018-€/MWh
40
30
20
10
0
2017
NO
2018
2019
SE
2020
FI
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
NL
2026
GB
2027
2028
FR-BE
2029
2030
DK
DE-AT-LU
Source: Danish Energy and Climate Outlook 2018 (DECO18). Prices are modelling
results. For more info see
https://ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/Analyser/basisfremskrivning_2018.pdf
111
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0112.png
Gas
The total consumption of natural gas, biogas and biomethane (synthetic natural gas) in
Denmark is expected to fall to about 2.3 bcm in 2030 (see figure below). The natural gas
consumption is expected to fall to about 1.8 bcm in 2030. Consumption of biogas and bio
natural gas is expected to grow from the present level of approx. 0.3 bcm to approx. 0.5
bcm in 2030.
Figure 10: Forecasted demand and supply of natural gas in Denmark, 2018-2040.
6,0
5,5
5,0
4,5
4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
-
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Export NL
Export SE
The North Sea and import DE incl. BNG
The North Sea, incl. Trym
Export DE
Denmark incl. BNG-exit
The North Sea and import DE
Source: Danish Energy Agency
The Danish gas pipeline network is well developed and there are currently no plans for
further network expansion besides the ongoing Baltic Pipe Project. Baltic Pipe (BP) is a
project between the Polish TSO
–
GazSystem
–
and the Danish TSO
–
Energinet
–
with the
objective to transport gas from Norway to Poland via Denmark. In order to ensure sufficient
transport capacity, the Danish transmission system needs to be expanded as part of the
project.
Bcm
D
ENMARK S
F
IRST
D
RAFT
I
NTEGRATED
N
ATIONAL
E
NERGY AND
C
LIMATE
P
LAN
112
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0113.png
Baltic Pipe will include the following technical systems and installation:
A 105-
kilo ete lo g, e offsho e gas pipeli e f o No a s pipeli e Eu opipe II i
the North Sea to a receiving terminal located on shore in Denmark.
Expansion of the Danish transmission system with a new gas pipeline, approximately 210-
230 km long.
A compressor station in the South-eastern part of Zealand.
A 260-310 km long offshore gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea between Denmark and Poland.
The Polish TSO - GAZ-SYSTEM - is in charge of establishing and operate the gas pipeline
across the Baltic Sea between Denmark and Poland.
E pa sio s of Pola d s t a s issio s ste .
The final investment decision has been taken in 2018, and the pipeline is scheduled to
come on streamby October 2022.
Because BP would increase the overall capacity of the Danish transmission system by a
significant amount, capacity and volume tariffs are projected to fall if the project is realized,
as illustrated in the figure below.
Figure 11: Historic and expected gas transmission tariffs for DK 2006-2035 [2018-DKK/kWh].
40
Capacity tariffs, nominal prices,
DKK/kWh/h/year
0,012
0,010
0,008
0,006
0,004
0,002
0,000
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
2030
2034
Capacity (DKK/kWh/h/year)
Volume (DKK/kWh)
Capacity w. Baltic Pipe (DKK/kWh/h/year)
Volume w. Baltic Pipe (DKK/kWh)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source: Energinet.
Note: The projected tariffs are non-binding and only an indication of Energinets overall expectation
with regards to future gas transmission tariffs.
Volume tariffs, nominal prices,
DKK/kWh
D
ENMARK S
F
IRST
D
RAFT
I
NTEGRATED
N
ATIONAL
E
NERGY AND
C
LIMATE
P
LAN
113
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0114.png
4.6 Dimension Research, innovation and competitiveness
(i) Current situation of the low-carbon-technologies sector and, to the extent possible, its
position on the global market (that analysis is to be carried out at Union or global level)
The low-carbon technology sector in Denmark employs around 67.000 full-time workers.
44% of these jobs are in the industrial sector. The low-carbon industry is more active within
research and innovation, with an average of 9 out of 100 employees working in the field of
research and innovation compared to on average 5 out of 100 employees in traditional
Danish companies.
71
Denmark has in the years 2010-17 seen an increase in the export of energy technology of
31,5%, compared to an on average increase in EU15 of 9,9%
72
Denmark mainly exports to other EU countries, but export of energy technology to the US
and China are on the rising.
In 2017 Denmark developed a strategy for the export of energy technology with the aim of
strengthening its position on the global market. The export strategy is part of building a
coherent approach to the development of the low-carbon technologies sector from
research and innovation to deployment, and works closely together with the research and
innovation communities in building international relations.
(ii) Current level of public and, where available, private research and innovation spending
on low-carbon-technologies, current number of patents, and current number of researchers
Denmark has spent appr. 500 mio. Dkr. in public funding on research and development on
low-carbon technologies in 2018.
Private companies spent appr. 4 billion dkr. on research and development in low-carbon
technologies in the energy sector in 2015, which is the latest accessible figure.
It is not possible to estimate the current number of patents or researchers working with
research in low-carbon-technologies.
(iii) Breakdown of current price elements that make up the main three price components
(energy, network, taxes/levies)
See Annex 3 for further details on the price elements that make up the main price
components.
iiia. Description of energy subsidies, including for fossil fuels
71
Danmarks Statistik
Eurostat
72
D
ENMARK S
F
IRST
D
RAFT
I
NTEGRATED
N
ATIONAL
E
NERGY AND
C
LIMATE
P
LAN
114
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0115.png
Denmark provides subsidies for renewable energy technologies, e.g. onshore wind,
offshore wind, solar PV, biomass and biogas. Subsidies are given as production subsidy per
kWh, normally for a limited number of years. Subsidies for onshore renewable electricity is
normally provided as a fixed premium to the market price of electricity. The level of subsidy
for the individual technologies is determined by government. Subsidies for offshore wind is
in term of Contract for Difference, and the level of subsidy is determined through the
tendering of offshore wind parks.
The future subsidy system for new renewable energy plants in Denmark is currently being
considered. Subsidy systems for renewable energy will increasingly be market oriented and
include competition through tendering, in accordance with the EU state aid guidelines.
The 2018 energy agreement states that the more of the future renewable energy
development shall be offered through tendering procedures. As of 2018 the subsidies for
future offshore wind and solar PV will be offered through af tendering procedure, allowing
these technologies to compete against each other and provide a downward pressure on
the subsidy level. Later more technologies will be included in the tenders and allow these to
compete for support.
The costs of renewable technologies is steadily declining, and becoming competitive with
fossil fuel sources. It is a stron political objective to promote future electricity production
from renewable energy on market conditions free of subsidies.
D
ENMARK S
F
IRST
D
RAFT
I
NTEGRATED
N
ATIONAL
E
NERGY AND
C
LIMATE
P
LAN
115
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0116.png
5.
IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF PLANNED POLICIES AND MEASURES
73
5.1 Impacts of planned policies and measures described in section 3 on
energy system and greenhouse gas emissions and removals including
comparison to projections with existing policies and measures (as
described in section 4).
(i) Projections of the development of the energy system and greenhouse gas emissions and
GHG emissions and removals as well as, where relevant, of emissions of air pollutants in
accordance with Directive 2016/2284/EU under the planned policies and measures at least
until ten years after the period covered by the plan (including for the last year of the period
covered by the plan), including relevant EU policies and measures.
The projections and assumptions presented in chapter 4 were published in April 2018,
ai l as pa t of De a k s E e g a d Cli ate Outlook
DECO . Thus,
GHG
projection results in chapter 4 include existing measures as of April 2018. On June 29th
2018, the Danish Government and all parties in Parliament agreed on a new Energy
Agreement, with a new set of measures to be introduced from 2020 to 2024.
Moreover, the Government on 9 October 2018 launched its proposal for a Climate and Air
Proposal,
Togethe fo a g ee e futu e
, covering the non-ETS sectors .
Thus, in this chapter preliminary projected effects of the Energy Agreement and estimated
impacts of the policies and measures inherent in the Climate and Air Proposal are included,
bearing in mind that the former includes adopted policies and measures and the latter
includes planned policies and measures as proposed by the Government in October 2018
and of which some have been adopted for implementation with the agreement on the 2019
State Budget reached on 30 November 2018. With the agreement on the 2019 State Budget
financial support for the implementation of the following measures is provided.
C21) Improvement of biogas plants.
C31) Behavioural campaign with climate labelling.
C35) Analysis to improve the monitoring and accounting of carbon dioxide storage in
soils and forests.
An overview of the estimated effects is included in Table 14. The results of combining
DECO18 with these effects are shown Figure 12
73
Planned policies and measures are options under discussion and having a realistic chance of being adopted and
implemented after the date of submission of the national plan. The resulting projections under section 5.1.i shall therefore
include not only implemented and adopted policies and measures (projections with existing policies and measures), but also
planned policies and measures.
D
ENMARK S
F
IRST
D
RAFT
I
NTEGRATED
N
ATIONAL
E
NERGY AND
C
LIMATE
P
LAN
116
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0117.png
Full model-based projections of the development of the energy system and GHG emissions
and removals will be carried out as part of the upcoming energy and GHG projection,
De a k s E e g a d Cli ate Outlook
, s heduled to e pu li ized i the sp i g of
2019. These projections will be included in the final Danishintegrated Energy and Climate
Plan, to be sumbitted to the Commission by the end of 2019
Table 14.
Overview of estimated GHG emission reduction effects of measures adopted in the
2018 Energy Agreement and planned with the 2018 Climate and Air proposal
Notes: The impact assessments are based on an overall assessment of the individual elements and their interaction. The
partial impact assessments should therefore be taken with a reservation, especially if adjusted for the total package of
initiatives. These are corrected emissions for the EU ETS related emissions. Effects of CO2 reductions are indicated by a
negative sign. Effects of the allocated funds for green transport and the allocated funds for climate have not been taken into
account.
1) The energy agreement achieves a RE share in electricity consumption of 100 per cent, which means that sufficient green
electricity is produced to cover electricity consumption. However, electricity produced on fossil fuels will continue to exist,
which means that increased electricity consumption, as a result of a reduced electricity tax, if considered partially, could lead
to a slight increase in total CO2 emissions.
2) The effect depends on how the concrete implementation is designed.
3) Including derived effects on coal consumption estimated to give up to an additional 1 million. tonnes of CO2 reduction in
2030.
4) With the energy agreement, funding has been allocated, which indicates the way to reach a RE share of approx. 55 pct. in
2030. In this example, extra RE electricity production has been included in the estimate to reach 55 per cent RE in 2030. This
implies a RE electricity production that exceeds electricity consumption. Potential reductions in CO2 emissions in neighboring
countries from this initiative have not been taken into account here.
5) Greenhouse gas emissions from the majority of the energy sector in Denmark are covered by the EU Emission Trading
System (ETS). Denmark does not have separate reduction targets in the ETS sector. In a quota system, increased emissions
D
ENMARK S
F
IRST
D
RAFT
I
NTEGRATED
N
ATIONAL
E
NERGY AND
C
LIMATE
P
LAN
117
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0118.png
from an area will be offset by a similar lesser discharge elsewhere in the EU, which is why, in principle; there is no climate
effect of national energy policy in the quota sector. With the new agreement on the framework for the quota trading system
for 2021-30, surplus quotas in the system will be transferred to the market stabilizing quota reserve from which a portion of
the quotas will be canceled. This will lead to lower greenhouse gas emissions from the EU quota sector. When the system is in
balance again, the dynamics of the system will be the same as before the new agreement.
Figure 12
Trends in current (1990-2016 as reported under UNFCCC in April 2018) and
projected (2017-2030) total greenhouse gas emission with existing policies and measures
(as of April 2018) and with effects of the energy agreement as well as planned policies from
the Climate and Air Proposal.
(ii) Assessment of policy interactions (between existing and planned policies and measures
and planned policies and measures within a policy dimension and between existing policies
and measures and planned policies and measures of different dimensions) at least until the
last year of the period covered by the plan, in particular to establish a robust understanding
of the impact of energy efficiency/energy saving policies on the sizing of eh energy system
and to reduce the risk of stranded investment in energy supply
This will be described in the final energy and climate plan once the modelling of the energy
agreement in the Danish Energy and Climate Outlook 2019 has been completed.
(iii) Assessment of interactions between existing policies and measures and planned policies
and measures, and between those policies and measures and Union climate and energy
policy measures
D
ENMARK S
F
IRST
D
RAFT
I
NTEGRATED
N
ATIONAL
E
NERGY AND
C
LIMATE
P
LAN
118
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0119.png
Existing policies and measures and planned policies and measures interact as the latter, in
most cases, are building on the former with a view to extent or strengthen existing
measures. This is particular the case within the Decarbonisation (GHG emissions reduction
and renewable energy) and Energy efficiency dimensions, where Denmark has a long
tradition of efforts cf. Annex 1.
In Denmark both existing policies and measures and planned policies and measures interact
with Union climate and energy policy measures.
Information on the interaction between existing policies and measures and Union climate
and energy policy measures is reported biennially under the Monitoring Mechanism
Regulation (MMR, Regulation (EU) No 525/2013) and is available in the EEA database on
e isti g poli ies a d easu es i De a k u de the olu
ith the title
Union policy
which resulted in the implementation of the PaM
.
Information on the interaction between planned policies and measures and Union climate
and energy policy measures is included in Annex 1, where the tables on additional policies
a d easu es also i lude a olu
ith i fo atio o the
Union policy which resulted
in the implementation of the PaM
.
5.2 Macroeconomic, and to the extent feasible, the health, environmental,
employment and education, skills and social impacts including just
transition aspects (in terms of costs and benefits as well as cost-
effectiveness) of the planned policies and measures described in section 3
at least until the last year of the period covered by the plan, including
comparison to projections with existing policies and measures
Neither information on the macroeconomic impact nor impacts on the health,
environmental, employment, education, skills, social, transitional, costs, benefits and cost-
effectiveness until 2030 of the planned policies and measures are currently available.
5.3
Overview of investment needs
(i) existing investment flows and forward investment assumptions with regard to
the planned policies and measures
Future state budget laws that will implement the additional policies and measures adopted
with 2018 Energy Agreement is expected to follow the multi-annual budget included in the
agreement and reproduced in table 15.
Table 15.
Prioritised budgets 2018-2025 in the 2018 Energy Agreement. The agreement
prioritises approximately 0.5 billion DKK in 2019, increasing to approximately 2.8 billion DKK
in 2025.
D
ENMARK S
F
IRST
D
RAFT
I
NTEGRATED
N
ATIONAL
E
NERGY AND
C
LIMATE
P
LAN
119
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0120.png
Note: Due to rounding, there may be deviations between the sum of the components and the total sum.
The ta edu tio s a e listed i
p i es a d al ulated a o di g to e e sals a d eha io . Ta geted e e g
saving
effo t also i ludes de i ed
lower tax revenue.
D
ENMARK S
F
IRST
D
RAFT
I
NTEGRATED
N
ATIONAL
E
NERGY AND
C
LIMATE
P
LAN
120
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0121.png
As stated in the Climate and Air proposal the concrete initiatives in the proposal will be
funded through the following allocations:
•
•
•
•
•
Funds from the allocated budget for green initiatives in the proposed 2019 State
Budget Law
The Fund for Green Transport as set out in the Energy Agreement from June 2018
Remaining funds in the National Green Climate Fund from the Agreement on the
abolition of the PSO tax
Advanced biofuel allocation from the Agreement on Enterprise and
Entrepreneurship Initiatives
A minor share of the allocation for energy storage projects from the
implementation of successive funds
In addition, the government will apply reserves allocated in the Finance Act 2019 proposal
and funding allocated in the energy field.
Finally, the Government considers that necessary funding in addition to the above
mentioned can be provided by prioritizing part of the fiscal space. The government will
convene the parties to the Energy Agreement for discussions on the government's proposal
for the implementation of the Fund for Green Transport, as agreed in the Energy
Agreement from June 2018.
On 30 November 2018 an agreement on the 2019 Finance Act was reached. With the
agreement on the 2019 Finance Act financial support for the implementation of the
following measures is provided:
C21) Improvement of biogas plants: DKK 5 million annually in 2019 and 2020. In addition,
DKK 10 million annually in 2020-2022 to finance derived financial consequences of the
initiative.
C31) Behavioural campaign with climate labelling: DKK 6 million annually in the period
2019-2022.
C35) Analysis to improve the monitoring and accounting of carbon dioxide storage in
soils and forests: DKK 3 million in 2019.In addition, the government will seek support to
implement the concrete initiatives in climate and air proposal over the coming years as part
of the ordinary legislative process. The government will also seek support for financing
some of the initiatives in the annual budget negotiations for the coming fiscal year.
(ii) Sector or market risk factors or barriers in the national or regional context
Being a subsection of section 5.3 it is assumed the information to be reported here is
information on sector or market risk factors or barriers in the national or regional context in
relation to investment needs.
D
ENMARK S
F
IRST
D
RAFT
I
NTEGRATED
N
ATIONAL
E
NERGY AND
C
LIMATE
P
LAN
121
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0122.png
As mentioned in chapter 5.3(i) only information on public investments is available for this
reporting. The risk factors or barriers in the national context in relation to the investment
needs are that the budgets for achieving the objectives in the 2018 Energy Agreement and
the objectives in the 2018 Climate and Air proposal have been underestimated.
However, as announced both in the 2018 Energy Agreement and in the 2018 Climate and
Air proposal, progress with implementation of adopted measures will be closely monitored
through frequent stock-takes and follow-ups.
The risk factors or barriers in the national context in relation to the investment needs will
be minimized as any gaps in the need for additional public finance support or resources will
be identified well in advance through the frequent stock-takes and follow-ups
(iii) analysis of additional public finance support or resources to fill identified gaps
identified under point (ii)
With the Energy Agreement being adopted in 2018 and the Climate and Air proposal put
forward in 2018 analyses with a view to identify gaps in the need for additional public
finance support or resources have not yet been relevant.
It is the objective of the government that Denmark in 2050 is a low-emission society
independent of fossil fuels. A crucial prerequisite for fulfilling the ambition is that the
transport sector will be transformed well in advance. It is also the objective of the
government that Denmark in the transport sector - as in the energy sector
–
is in the front
as a green pioneer country in an economically responsible manner. The government has
therefore set an ambition for a green transition of passenger cars in Denmark while
simultaneously providing alternative sources to ensure the fiscal revenue.
Regarding the green conversion of passenger cars, it is the government's ambition that all
newly registered passenger cars by 2030 are low-emission cars and from 2035 zero-
emission cars.
A commission will be set up to deliver a concrete strategy for how the government's
objective can best be achieved and the state revenue can be maintained.
5.4 Impacts of planned policies and measures described in section 3 on
other Member States and regional cooperation at least until the last
year of the period covered by the plan, including comparison to
projections with existing policies and measures
(i) Impacts on the energy system in neighbouring and other Member States in the region to
the extent possible
D
ENMARK S
F
IRST
D
RAFT
I
NTEGRATED
N
ATIONAL
E
NERGY AND
C
LIMATE
P
LAN
122
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0123.png
As impacts of planned policies and measures described in section 3 on the energy system in
neighboring and other Member States in the region have not been analysed, it is not
possible to include information on such impacts.
(ii) Impacts on energy prices, utilities and energy market integration
As impacts of planned policies and measures described in section 3 on energy prices,
utilities and energy market integration have not been analysed, it is not possible to include
information on such impacts
(iii) Where relevant, impacts on regional cooperation
As impacts of planned policies and measures described in section 3 on regional cooperation
have not been analysed, it is not possible to include information on such impacts
D
ENMARK S
F
IRST
D
RAFT
I
NTEGRATED
N
ATIONAL
E
NERGY AND
C
LIMATE
P
LAN
123
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0124.png
Part 2: List of parameters and variables to be reported in Section B of National Plans
74, 75,
76, 77
The following parameters, variables, energy balances and indicators are to be reported in
Section B ' Analytical Basis' of the National Plans:
74
For the plan covering the period from 2021 to 2030: for each parameter/variable in the list, trends over the years 2005-
2040 (2005-2050 where appropriate) including for the year 2030 in five year intervals shall be reported both in section 4 and
5. Parameter based on exogenous assumptions vs. modelling output shall be indicated.
75
As far as possible, reported data and projections shall build on and be consistent with EUROSTAT data and methodology
used for reporting European statistics in respective sectorial legislations, as European statistics are the primary source of
statistical data used for reporting and monitoring, in accordance with Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 on European statistics.
76
Note: all projections are to be performed on the basis of constant prices (2016 prices used as base year)
77
The Commission will provide recommendations for key parameters for projections, at least covering oil, gas, and coal
import prices as well as EU ETS carbon prices.
D
ENMARK S
F
IRST
D
RAFT
I
NTEGRATED
N
ATIONAL
E
NERGY AND
C
LIMATE
P
LAN
124
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0125.png
Part 2
1. General parameters and variables
The following parameters, variables, energy balances and indicators are to be reported in
Se tio B a al ti al asis of the
National Plans, if used:
See the following parameters under Part 2,
Ge eral para eters a d aria les , E erg
ala es a d i di ators , Ele tri it a d heat , Tra sfor atio se tor , E erg
o su ptio , Pri es , I est e ts a d Re e a les
in the attached Annex 2
(1) Population [million]
See Annex 2a
(2) GDP [euro million] ]
See Annex 2a
(3) Sectorial gross value added (including main industrial, construction, services, and
agriculture sectors) [euro million]]
See Annex 2a
(4) Number of households [thousands]
See Annex 2a
(5) Household size [inhabitants/households]
See Annex 2 a
(6) Disposable income of households [euro] ]
See Annex 2a
(7) Number of passenger-kilometres: all modes, i.e. split between road (cars and buses
separated if possible), rail, aviation and domestic navigation (when relevant) [million
pkm]
See Annex 2a
(8) Freight transport tonnes-kilometres: all modes excluding international maritime, i.e.
split between road, rail, aviation, domestic navigation (inland waterways and national
maritime) [million tkm
D
ENMARK S
F
IRST
D
RAFT
I
NTEGRATED
N
ATIONAL
E
NERGY AND
C
LIMATE
P
LAN
125
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0126.png
See Annex 2a
(9) International oil, gas and coal fuel import prices [euro/GJ or euro/toe]
–
based on the
Commission's recommendations
See Annex 2a
(10) EU-ETS carbon price [euro/EUA]
–
based on the Commission's recommendations
See Annex 2a
(11) Exchange rates to euro and to US Dollar (if applicable) assumptions [euro/ currency
and USD/currency]
See Annex 2
(12) Number of Heating Degree Days (HDD)
See Annex 2a
(13) Number of Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
See Annex 2a
(14) Technology cost assumptions used in modelling for main relevant technologies
See Annex 2a
2. Energy balances and indicators
2.1 Energy supply
(1) Indigenous Production by fuel type (all energy products that are produced in
significant quantities) [ktoe]
See Annex 2a
(2) Net imports by fuel type (including electricity and split into intra- and extra EU net
imports) [ktoe]
See Annex 2a
(3) Import dependency from third countries [%]
See Annex 2a
(4) Main import sources (countries) for main energy carriers (including gas and
electricity)
See Annex 2a
D
ENMARK S
F
IRST
D
RAFT
I
NTEGRATED
N
ATIONAL
E
NERGY AND
C
LIMATE
P
LAN
126
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0127.png
(5) Gross Inland Consumption by fuel type source (including solids, all energy products:
coal, crude oil and petroleum products, natural gas, nuclear energy, electricity, derived
heat, renewables, waste) [ktoe]
See annex 2a
2.2 Electricity and heat
(1) Gross electricity generation [GWh]
See Annex 2a
(2) Gross electricity generation by fuel (all energy products) [GWh]
See Annex 2a
(3) Share of combined heat and power generation in total electricity and heat generation
[%]
See Annex 2a
(4) Capacity electricity generation by source including retirements and new investments
[MW]
See Annex 2a
(5) Heat generation from thermal power generation
See Annex 2a
(6) Heat generation from combined heat and power plants, including industrial waste
heat
See Annex 2a
(7) Cross-border interconnection capacities for gas and electricity [Definition for
electricity in line with outcome of ongoing discussions on basis for 15% interconnection
target] and their projected usage rates
See Annex 2a
2.3Transformation sector
(1) Fuel inputs to thermal power generation (including solids, oil, gas) [ktoe]
See Annex 2aa
(2) Fuel inputs to other conversion processes [ktoe]
See Annex 2a
D
ENMARK S
F
IRST
D
RAFT
I
NTEGRATED
N
ATIONAL
E
NERGY AND
C
LIMATE
P
LAN
127
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0128.png
2.4 Energy consumption
(1) Primary and final energy consumption [ktoe]
See Annex 2a
(2) Final energy consumption by sector (including industry, residential, tertiary,
agriculture and transport (including split between passenger and freight transport, when
available)) [ktoe]
See Annex 2a
(3) Final energy consumption by fuel (all energy products) [ktoe]
See Annex 2a
(4) Final non-energy consumption [ktoe]
See Annex 2a
(5) Primary energy intensity of the overall economy (primary energy consumption per
GDP [toe/euro]
See Annex 2a
(6) Final energy intensity by sector (including industry, residential, tertiary and transport
(including split between passenger and freight transport, when available))
3
See Annex 2a
2.5.
Prices
(1) Electricity prices by type of using sector (residential, industry, tertiary)
See Annex 2a
(2) National retail fuel prices (including taxes, per source and sector) [euro/ktoe
4
See Annex 2a
2.6 Investments
Investment costs in energy transformation, supply, transmission and distribution sectors.
See Annex 2a
2.7 Renewables
(1) Gross final consumption of energy from renewable sources and share of renewable
energy in gross final energy consumption and by sector (electricity, heating and cooling,
transport) and by technology
D
ENMARK S
F
IRST
D
RAFT
I
NTEGRATED
N
ATIONAL
E
NERGY AND
C
LIMATE
P
LAN
128
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0129.png
See Annex 2a
(2) Electricity and heat generation from renewable energy in buildings (as defined in
Article 2(1) of Directive 2010/31/EU); this shall include, where available, disaggregated
data on energy produced, consumed and injected into the grid by solar photovoltaic
systems, solar thermal systems, biomass, heat pumps, geothermal systems, as well as all
other decentralized renewables systems)
See Annex 2a
(3) If applicable, other national trajectories, including long-term or sectorial ones (the
share of food-based and advanced biofuels, the share of renewable energy in district
heating, as well as the renewable energy produced by cities and energy communities as
defined by Article 22 of [recast of Directive 2009/28/EC as proposed by COM(2016) 767])
See Annex 2a
3.0 GHG emissions and removals related indicators
(1) GHG emissions by policy sector (EU ETS, Effort Sharing Regulation and LULUCF)
De a k s total g ee house gas
emissions 2005-2040, including indirect CO2-emissions,
are shown in table 3.1 with and without LULUCF under the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
78
.
For the period 2005-
the esti ates sho a e f o De a k s
i e to
reporting. For the period 2017-2040 the estimates shown are from the 2018 baseline
projection (DECO18)
79
. For the period after 2030 estimates are projected to be on the
same level as in 2030 as the April 2018 projection ends in 2030. Consolidated projections
and updated GHG emissions and removals related indicators until 2040 will be elaborated
in 2019 and included in the final integrated national energy and climate plan.
Information on the split between ETS and non-ETS emissions is also included in table 3.1.
For the period 2005-2016 verified CO2 emissions from stationary installations under the EU
ETS with the addition of CO2 emissions from domestic aviation
80
are shown together with
78
LULUCF under the Kyoto Protocol differs from LULUCF under the UNFCC.
The Danish Energy and Climate Outlook 2018, April 2018 [
https://ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/Analyser/basisfremskrivning_2018.pdf
, except for LULUCF where updated estimates
published in October 2018 are shown ( http://envs.au.dk/videnudveksling/luft/emissioner/supporting-
documentation/greenhouse-gases-nir/lulucf/ ).
In addition to CO2 emissions from stationary installations also CO2 emissions from domestic aviation should be seen as
emissions under the EU ETS, although CO2 emissions from aviation verified under the EU ETS are different from the
inventory estimates for domestic and international aviation as the former is based on aviation entities registered in
Denmark and the latter is based on jet fuel sold in Denmark.
D
ENMARK S
F
IRST
D
RAFT
I
NTEGRATED
N
ATIONAL
E
NERGY AND
C
LIMATE
P
LAN
129
79
80
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0130.png
the differences between total emissions and ETS emissions as a proxy for non-ETS
greenhouse gas emissions
81
. For the period 2017-2040 the split is from the 2018 baseline
projection.
See Annex 2 (a and b) for further details.
Table 16
De ark’s gree house gas e issio s
Sharing Regulation and LULUCF)*
5-2040
- by policy sector (EU ETS, Effort
* 2005-
5: Fro
De
ark’s a
ual EU a d UNFCCC i e tor reporti g Mar h/April
8,
2020-2040: From DECO18 (April 2018) and updated LULUCF projection (October 2018) - the so-called WEM-projection scenario
with effects of existing policies and measures (existing as of April 2018).
(2) GHG emissions by IPCC sector and by gas (where relevant split into EU ETS and Effort
Sharing sectors) [tCO2eq]
De a k s total g ee house gas e issio s
-2040 by IPCC sector and by gas are shown
in table 3.2. The split into EU ETS and Effort Sharing sectors (non-ETS) are shown in table
3.1.
81
Due to improvements in methodologies, activity data, emission factors these non-ETS emissions differs slightly from non-
ETS emissions previously reported under the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) for 2013-2020.
D
ENMARK S
F
IRST
D
RAFT
I
NTEGRATED
N
ATIONAL
E
NERGY AND
C
LIMATE
P
LAN
130
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0131.png
Table 17
De
ark’s gree house gas e issio s
5-2040
- by gas and by IPCC sector*
* 2005-
5: Fro
De
ark’s a
ual EU a d UNFCCC i e tor reporti g
(March/April 2018),
2020-2040: From DECO18 and updated LULUCF projection (October 2018)
–
the WEM scenario.
(3) Carbon intensity of the overall economy [tCO2eq/GDP]
See Annex 2a
(4) CO2 emission related indicators
(a) GHG intensity of domestic power and heat generation [tCO2eq/MWh]
See Annex 2 a
(b) GHG intensity of final energy consumption by sector [tCO2eq/toe]
See annex 2a
(5) Non-CO2 emission related parameters
(a) Livestock: dairy cattle [1000 heads], non-dairy cattle [1000 heads], sheep [1000
heads], pig [1000 heads], poultry [1000 heads]
D
ENMARK S
F
IRST
D
RAFT
I
NTEGRATED
N
ATIONAL
E
NERGY AND
C
LIMATE
P
LAN
131
 EFK, Alm.del - 2018-19 (1. samling) - Bilag 146: Orientering om aflevering af Danmarks udkast til energi- og klimaplan
1999872_0132.png
See annex 2a
Further reporting on Article 7 in the Energy Efficiency Directive
Member States shall notify to the Commission their proposed detailed methodology
pursuant to Annex V(5) to Directive 2012/27/EU for the operation of the energy efficiency
obligation schemes and alternative policy measures referred to in Articles 7a and 7b and
Article 20(6) of that Directive.
It is currently only possible to report on Annex III, 1 (a), since article 7 of the revised EED is
not yet implemented.
(a) the annual final energy consumption, averaged over the most recent three year-
period prior to 1 January 2019 [in ktoe];
Based on the final energy consumption in 2016 in the official Energy Statistic and the final
energy consumption in 2017 and 2018 in the latest forecast (BF2018) is the annual end-use
saving requirements at 0,8 pct. equal to 4,94 PJ.
D
ENMARK S
F
IRST
D
RAFT
I
NTEGRATED
N
ATIONAL
E
NERGY AND
C
LIMATE
P
LAN
132