MOF, Alm.del - 2017-18 - Bilag 35: Rapporten fra det internationale ekspertpanel om evaluering af de danske marine modeller

Miljø- og Fødevareudvalget 2017-18
MOF Alm.del Bilag 35
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General response.

When studying the reactions of researchers and stakeholders, the Panel has realized that a few factual errors occurred in its report, and that furthermore the choice of wording was not

always entirely precise and consistent, with respect to the difference between water body specific, type-specific, and regionalized references, targets and MAIs. In order to avoid further

confusion with other readers of the report, the Panel has decided to slightly edit the report. The changes, compared to the version commented upon by the stakeholders and researchers, are

summarized in the table below.

Page

Original text

Target values must fall in the green (GES) range. However, the error bars of the

calculated target value should also fall in the green or blue area. Therefore, the longer

the error bars, the more the target moves to the left and is consequently more

stringent.

New text

Sentence dropped, as it gave rise to discussions that cannot be finally settled

To derive reliable regionalized MAI

when the aim is to calculate regionalised MAI.

Reference link lost

One sentence had dropped out from the text

Further, the representation of the sediments does not include redox-dependent

inorganic phosphorus (iron-oxide bound) dynamics and an empirical direct relationship

between shear stress and turbidity.

Reference link lost

Regionalized MAI (3 times)

Regionalized MAI

Regionalized MAI (5 times)

Regionalized MAI (2 times)

List of references

The fact that eelgrass depth limit (not Kd) has been intercalibrated has been added to the

text.

to derive reliable MAI for each water body.

.. when the aim is to calculate as precise and water-body specific MAI as possible

Proper reference to figure restored

Add: “Moreover, spatial displacement of problems to other systems as a consequence of

flushing winter nutrient loads has to be taken into account.”

Further, the representation of the sediments does not include explicit representation of

inorganic particles and instead an empirical direct relationship between shear stress and

turbidity is used.

Proper reference to table restored

Proper reference to figure restored

Water-body specific MAI (3 times)

Water-body specific MAI

Water-body specific MAI (5 times)

Water-body specific MAI (2 times)

One reference corrected, several missing references added

MOF, Alm.del - 2017-18 - Bilag 35: Rapporten fra det internationale ekspertpanel om evaluering af de danske marine modeller

Specific response.

In the table below we respond to the questions and comments brought forward during the hearing process.

Organization

Stakeholder

Landbrug &

Fødevarer

Ch/

sect

Gen

eral

Comments

We would like to thank the Panel for the thorough and

skilled work that has been put in this evaluation. We are

happy to note that comments from stakeholders have

generally been answered and, where necessary,

investigated further. This enquiring and persistent attitude

towards understanding the scientific matter is much

appreciated.

The importance of looking at all relevant stressors to

recover degraded marine ecosystems is supported by

overwhelming scientific evidence. Nutrients are

central,but addressing other stressors in addition to

nutrients is important, often essential, to reach the

environmental objectives. One example of successful

recovery is changing sluice practice, and thereby salinity,

of Ringkøbing Fjord. This facilitated recruitment of the

suspension-feeding soft-shell clam, Mya arenaria, resulting

in a regime shift leading to clear water (Petersen et al.

(2008)1). A negative example of ecological disturbance is

invasion by the round goby (Neogobius melanostomus)

that may disturb the ecosystem e.g. by eating benthic filter

feeders (e.g. Poos et al. (2009)2 and Kuhns & Berg

(1999)3), causing reduced water filtration. The effect of

this will be increased eutrophication signal, even though

total N load may be unchanged or even decreasing. Cloern

(2001)4 specifically notes that “Changes in coastal water

quality and living resources are the result of multiple

stressors, so a broader view of coastal eutrophication will

consider how anthropogenic nutrient enrichment interacts

with other stressors such as translocation of species,

habitat loss, fishing, inputs of toxic contaminants,

manipulation of freshwater flows, aquaculture, and

climate change.” This classic paper, thus, emphasizes the

importance of taking action against other stressors than

Question

Response to question

Thanks for the compliments

Landbrug &

Fødevarer

2.5

Does the Panel agree that other stressors

than direct nutrient load, e.g. invasive

species and increasing temperatures due

to climate change, may increase the

negative effects of eutrophication or

directly deteriorate the ecosystem? And

does the Panel agree that other actions

than reduction of nutrient load from land

may improve a degraded ecosystem?

And may even be necessary as part of a

holistic approach to obtain good

ecological status? Does the panel agree

that more stressors than nutrient load

must be addressed in order to obtain

good environmental status of Danish

coastal waters?

Several stressors may affect the same

environmental indicators. E.g.

chlorophyll a level will increase with

increased nutrient load, but also if e.g.

the population of benthic filter feeders is

strongly reduced or if temperature

increases due to climate change. Does

The Panel has primarily reflected on the Scientific

Documentation Report, which focuses on nutrients (mainly

N) and indicators of water quality (mainly Chlorophyll a

and Kd). The discussion brought forward here distracts

from that topic, and touches upon elements that are

treated by the Marine Strategy Framework Directive

rather than by the Water Framework Directive. The Panel

has not been able to fully reflect on these issues.

However, in general terms the Panel stressed the

importance of

interaction

between nutrient loads and

many other stressors in section 2.5 of its report. A

consequence of interaction is that other measures to

improve the ecological status are unlikely to be successful

if nutrient loads, as the primary factors affecting the status

of the ecosystem, are not well controlled.

Non-linearity of ecological reactions is a real possibility,

but as the Panel has stressed in some of its responses to

questions from the stakeholders, the Panel does not see

reasons to suspect that the current models

overpredict

the

required nutrient reductions as a consequence of this. In

fact, the contrary is more probable. The Panel

recommends management on the basics, i.e. the nutrient

loads, accompanied with good monitoring that can advise

on other needed measures where unexpected state

changes appear.

MOF, Alm.del - 2017-18 - Bilag 35: Rapporten fra det internationale ekspertpanel om evaluering af de danske marine modeller

Landbrug &

Fødevarer

4.1

nutrient load alone. It is supported by Andersen et al.

(2017)5, who states that nutrients (N and P together)

make up only 50 % of the total stress in the Danish WFD

areas.

The Panel notes that “other legal instruments, e.g. the

Marine Strategy Framework Directive […] include more

explicitly other stressors […]”, and only P is mentioned in

the evaluation report as an important, additional stressor

to include in the RBMP. Given the strong arguments

provided in both Cloern (2001) and references therein,

and the specific study by Andersen et al. (2017), it is

difficult to understand the logic in the Panel’s conclusion

that other stressors than nutrients can be taken care of

elsewhere. Furthermore, it is a fact that other stressors

are not addressed, or sufficiently addressed, by other legal

instruments. Examples: No action at all is taken against

invasive species in Danish marine waters, coastal or open.

Specific actions to assist in eelgrass reestablishment in

Danish fjords can hardly be done elsewhere. The situation

now is that all action to improve ecological status is taken

against nutrient loss from land. 1 Petersen et al. (2008):

Regime shift in a coastal marine ecosystem. Ecological

Applications 18:497–510 2 Poos et al. (2009): Secondary

invasion of the round goby into high diversity Great Lakes

tributaries and species at risk hotspots: potential new

concerns for endangered freshwater species. Biological

Invasions 12: 1269 3 Kuhns & Berg (1999): Benthic

Invertebrate Community Responses to Round Goby

(Neogobius melanostomus) and Zebra Mussel (Dreissena

polymorpha) Invasion in Southern Lake Michigan. Journal

of Great Lakes Research 25(4):910–917 4 Cloern (2001):

Our evolving conceptual model of the coastal

eutrophication problem. Marine Ecology Progress Series

210: 223-253 5 Andersen et al. (2017): Under the Surface.

Report by NIVA Denmark. Under preparation for

submission.

The Panel describes the feedback mechanism of eelgrass

cover on water quality and clarity and mentions other

factors of disturbance to eelgrass recovery. The Panel

clearly states that there is no strong dependence of Kd on

the Panel agree that if only one of

several stressors affecting the same

environmental indicator is addressed in

the modelling work, this stressor will

have to be reduced relatively more in

pursuance of the target? I.e. “pay” for

the damage done by other stressors?

Does the Panel agree that other

measures should be taken along with

nutrient load reductions to obtain

eelgrass reestablishment most

The Panel has extensively commented on this in its report.

It is quite well possible that additional measures will be

needed, and the Panel has recommended pursuing the

studies in these complex ecological interactions. The Panel

MOF, Alm.del - 2017-18 - Bilag 35: Rapporten fra det internationale ekspertpanel om evaluering af de danske marine modeller

Landbrug &

Fødevarer

Landbrug &

Fødevarer

6.2

nutrient loading in the selected time period (p. 17, end of

third section). We suggest adding fishery and crabs to the

list of eelgrass stressors, e.g.: Baden et al. Limnol.

Oceanogr., 55(3), 2010, 1435–1448 Relative importance of

trophic interactions and nutrient enrichment in seagrass

ecosystems: A broad-scale field experiment in the Baltic–

Skagerrak area doi:10.4319/lo.2010.55.3.1435 Baden et al,

Mar Ecol Prog Ser 451: 61–73, 2012, Shift in seagrass food

web structure over decades is linked tooverfishing. doi:

0.3354/meps09585 Moksnes et al. Oikos 117: 763777,

2008 Trophic cascades in a temperate seagrass

community. doi: 10.1111/j.2008.0030-1299.16521.x

Infantes E et al. (2016) Seed Predation by the Shore Crab

Carcinus maenas: A Positive Feedback Preventing Eelgrass

Recovery? PLoS ONE 11(12): e0168128.

oi:10.1371/journal.pone.0168128 K. Matheson et al, Mar

Ecol Prog Ser 548: 31–45, 2016. Linking eelgrass decline

and impacts on associated fish communities to European

green crab (Carcinus maenas) invasion. doi:

10.3354/meps11674 Neckles, Loss of Eelgrass in Casco

Bay, Maine, Linked to Green Crab Disturbance,

Northeastern Naturalist 2015.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1656/045.022.0305 Garbary et al.

Mar Biol (2014) 161:3–15. Drastic decline of an extensive

eelgrass bed in Nova Scotia due to the activity of the

invasive green crab (Carcinus maenas). DOI

10.1007/s00227-013-2323-4

The reference Malve & Qian (2006) is missing in the

references. We assume it is “Estimating Nutrients and

Chlorophyll a Relationships in Finnish Lakes”

No conclusions are made in chapter 6, on the statistic

models, as section 7.6 on the mechanistic models. For

further work, concluding remarks on the statistic models

to enable comparison with the conclusions regarding

mechanistic models will be necessary. We therefore

encourage the Panel to include a section 6.4 “Conclusions

on the statistic models”

efficiently?

also suspects that responses of Kd to nutrient reductions

may be substantially slower than responses of Chlorophyll

a, and recommends further study into these processes in

order to better understand the long-term processes

leading to eelgrass restoration. Note that the cited papers

on the influence of

Carcinus maenas

are from North

America, where the species is invasive and has other

ecological interactions and consequences than in Europe,

where it is native and has always lived in the same areas

where eelgrass occurred.

Apologies. The missing reference has been added to the

final version of the report

The Panel has tried to homogenize the structure of the

different chapters, but slight differences remain. However,

the Panel is of the opinion that assessment and

recommendations regarding the statistical modeling are

clear in the report.

The Panel has made slight editorial improvements in the

report, but refrains from changing any important parts

such as conclusions, in order to respect the hearing

process.

The Panel feels that the most important findings of all

Landbrug &

In the final conclusions, clear references are made to all

MOF, Alm.del - 2017-18 - Bilag 35: Rapporten fra det internationale ekspertpanel om evaluering af de danske marine modeller

Fødevarer

DHI

2.1

chapters except from chapters 6 and 9, which include

specific comments on setup and results of the statistic

modeling approach and on the fitness of MAI’s to serve as

basis for deciding measures at a regional level,

respectively. We find that the concluding chapter should

include references to all relevant chapters of the report to

ensure a full overview of findings and an appropriate

balance of the final conclusions.

p.9: Target values must fall in the green (GES) range.

However, the error bars of the calculated target value

should also fall in the green or blue area. Therefore, the

longer the error bars, the more the target moves to the

left and is consequently more stringent.

chapters are included in the overview chapter

We acknowledge the logic behind this

statement, and would like to know if any

reference to this passage can be found in

the literature?

Are the panel of the opinion that we

should always include the maximum

reduction target, and add uncertainties,

to ensure the one-out-all-out principle?

This argument was based on logic rather than on a strict

directive. If a model predicts that good environmental

status will only be reached with a probability of 50 % (as

half the uncertainty range lies above the limit), this cannot

be interpreted as ‘ensuring good ecological status’.

However, the statement has been removed from the

report as it may lead to discussion and is not strictly

necessary in this context.

The Panel acknowledges that Kd is a proxy for eelgrass

depth limit, which is an intercalibrated indicator. As such,

Kd is a supporting quality element for the Eelgrass

biological quality element, but it has not been

intercalibrated in itself. For that reason one should discuss

whether it should have equal weight as Chlorophyll a.

The intercalibrated status of eelgrass depth limit has been

added to the text of the report to clarify the point.

DHI

2.2

p.9: Kd is a measure of attenuation, hence an indirect

measure of growth conditions for benthic plants and

algae. Thus, it is not a direct indicator of aquatic flora

(eelgrass), but rather a light control on the distribution of

eelgrass. Furthermore, Kd is not independent of

Chlorophyll a, since phytoplankton cells contribute to light

attenuation and a loss in transparency. Kd has not been

intercalibrated.

p.10: Kd has not been intercalibrated (as confirmed by the

researchers from Aarhus University (DCE) and DHI and the

European Commission’s Joint Research Centre)

Kd is not intercalibrated – but is derived (including the

uncertainties mentioned by the panel) from the

intercalibrated eelgrass depth limit.

We acknowledge the uncertainties of this parameter, but

just want to state, that it is an attempt to transfer the

intercalibrated indicator to an operational model

indicator.

p.14: The typology is too simplified to reflect the specific

characteristics of the individual fjordic water bodies. The

DHI

3.3

The Panel is delighted to read this

MOF, Alm.del - 2017-18 - Bilag 35: Rapporten fra det internationale ekspertpanel om evaluering af de danske marine modeller

DHI

3.6

consequence is a large and not sufficiently justified

variation in the required load reduction for each water

body. In the understanding of the Panel, the Danish

typology does not sufficiently reflect the individual

properties of the many Danish fjords and inner coastal

waters. The solution could be either to subdivide the

typology for these systems, taking into account especially

water exchange rate and fresh water discharge, or to

develop individual Chlorophyll a target values for every

single water body.We acknowledge this comment, and are

in the process of defining a project that will assess the

typology applied for the RBMP 2015-2021. Based on

circumstances behind the project some choices were

made during development, but we agree that the typology

should have been more detailed, and the comments from

the panel will be incorporated in the project definition for

the coming project update and pros and cons evaluated.

p.15: As a consequence, specific Chlorophyll a and nutrient

reference and target values were developed for every

single water body, resulting in 35 major Chlorophyll a

reference and target values for the German Baltic waters

alone.

We do not disagree, but will like to state

that this approach requires high quality

models and observations for all water

bodies. Even in the German case, some

water bodies are covered by parts of the

model with less sufficient resolution

which, to our opinion impact the

reference and targets values. For the

Danish water bodies we have evaluated

where we have models of sufficient

quality to be used for the assessment of

reference and targets values, but for

some water bodies we do not have

models or few/no observations. What

does the panel recommend for these

water bodies?

DHI

The typology is too course, and for the work ahead we will

explore the possibilities for improving this part

The Panel is aware of this situation. We have

recommended to revise and, where necessary, extend the

monitoring and observation data base, and to extend,

where possible, the mechanistic modeling. Furthermore,

we have stressed the importance of a cross-systems

statistical approach, because we are convinced that

essential characteristics, such as slope of Chlorophyll a

versus N loading, can be predicted based on appropriate

measures of the hydrography, the local loading intensity

and other characteristics of the water body.

The German mechanistic model approach covered nearly

every water body, but because of the problems you

mentioned, the average model performance was less good

compared to the Danish approach. However, the German

scientists and the stakeholder group saw that the model

well reflected the relative changes between today and the

situation around 1880. This relative change was applied to

the concrete present monitoring data to calculate

reference conditions. This is a major difference between

the German and the Danish approach. It shows that always

different solutions are possible to reach an aim.

see 3.3

MOF, Alm.del - 2017-18 - Bilag 35: Rapporten fra det internationale ekspertpanel om evaluering af de danske marine modeller

significantly. See comment above (section 3.3)

DHI

4.1

p.18: As mentioned above, recent modelling work of

Kuusemäe et al (2016) and Flindt et al (2016) has taken a

more comprehensive view on restoration of eelgrass, and

the influence of nutrient loading on the process. This work

is actually built into the mechanistic models used in the

present study, but the results have not been directly used

in order to estimate the influence of nutrient reduction on

seagrass restoration. The Panel proposes to make better

use of these models, probably after more extensive

validation, to more directly estimate the effect of nutrient

reductions on seagrass development possibilities.

p.19: It further recommends pursuing studies attempting

to estimate conditions for seagrass restoration based on

already developed more comprehensive models.

This is of course an ideal approach, but

still we see plenty of unsuccessful

attempts to restore eelgrass meadows.

Some examples exists, but still more

failures exists. Furthermore,, we did try

to translate depth limit into a model

output, but as actual depth limit and

modelled depth limit does not

necessarily coincide this is a very

challenging task. How does the panel

suggest we proceed if the mechanistic

models does not succeed in describing

eelgrass depth limit, and should we work

with other indicators for aquatic

macrophytes and angiosperms than

depth limit? And if the panel have

suggestions, which ones?

See above

We are presently working on a project

description focusing on supporting

parameters like total N, total P and

oxygen. These should be applicable for

both statistical and mechanistic model

approaches. However, none of these will

be intercalibrated. How does the panel

suggest we introduce none-

intercalibrated indicators for setting final

reduction targets?

The panel is aware that this is not an easy task, but

appreciates the considerable efforts already put in the

cited models. As stated elsewhere, we suspect that the

time constant for adaptation of Kd to nutrient loading is

considerably longer than that of Chlorophyll a; we are of

the opinion that this aspect may be key to better

understanding (and modeling) of the relations. For this

reason, the Panel has recommended to pursue the studies,

but to reduce at present the importance of Kd in the

weighting.

DHI

4.2

p.20: The Panel recommends using the mechanistic

models to better study how the important phenomenon of

oxygen depletion can be linked directly to required

nutrient reductions before using it in practice to estimate

required nutrient reduction. If, based on these studies, it

can be decided to use these additional indicators, they

should be introduced in both statistical and mechanistic

modelling approaches for consistency of the approach.

DHI

5.1

p.21: These field studies suggest that at least in a number

of systems, regulation of annual primary production by P

load reduction could be feasible.

We fully acknowledge that regulating P

can affect e.g. yearly primary production,

but as this is not an indicator we find it

Intercalibration can only follow once the indicator is well

worked out in at least one country. The Panel feels that it

is important to continually enrich the practice of the WFD

with new knowledge and modeling tools, based on the

overall aim of the directive to reach good ecological status.

For this reason it recommends following a research line

into new, ecologically significant indicators, where the

possibilities for this exist.

The Panel acknowledges, however, that the WFD has legal

status with respect to both the goals and the ways to

reach them. The Ministry is the Competent Authority and

answerable if it does not implement measures when water

bodies fall below the G/M boundary. Therefore it is

important to maintain an operational line based on

intercalibrated indicators that can form the basis for

current management, while not arresting scientific

development into improved ways of establishing and

reaching the targets.

The Panel has also indicated that a Chlorophyll a indicator

that also covers the spring bloom would be more sensitive

to P-loading. On the other hand, P fixation and

MOF, Alm.del - 2017-18 - Bilag 35: Rapporten fra det internationale ekspertpanel om evaluering af de danske marine modeller

difficult to include P reduction targets

based on this.

However, a research project lead by AU

has been initiated focusing on P

measures (catchment scale) and initial

studies to allow for future introduction of

P sensitive targets.

We fully agree, but as no year-averaged

chlorophyll indicator has been defined

(and intercalibrated) it is difficult to

conduct any regulation based on this.

Still summer chlorophyll-a will not

disappear as it is intercalibrated with

Sweden and Germany, but could be

supplemented with P-reduction targets.

Any comments to this?

DHI

5.3

p.22: but the evidence is not strong enough to exclude

that P reductions or combined N and P reductions could be

effective in reducing year-averaged chlorophyll levels as

well as sediment oxygen demand.

p.23: The Panel recommends using basin load models in

combination with the mechanistic models used in the

Scientific Documentation Report to investigate these

possibilities.

For sure this could provide some suggestions for specific

water bodies and should be associated with an in-depth

analysis of observations at first to locate potential areas

where this could add value.

p.27: Further, the representation of the sediments does

not include redox-dependent inorganic phosphorus (iron-

oxide bound) dynamics

Small misunderstanding – iron bound P is included in the

IDW model, see page 74 in previous documentation. It’s

the adsorption to inorganic particles and potential

sedimentation/re-suspension that is not included.

p.35: The Panel is of the opinion that it would be better to

keep both methods separated up to the last stage and

then do an in-depth comparison, taking into account water

body characteristics to explain or understand any

discrepancies.

We acknowledge this opinion and try to analyze this in the

work ahead to evaluate the differences and similarities

p.35: However, such decisions could better be made on

sedimentation in spring and subsequent release in

summer may also partly explain the dominance of N

limitation in summer. This could mean that reducing P,

through reduction of the spring bloom, might also

influence summer Chlorophyll a, probably after a latency

period of a few years. The models should allow testing this

hypothesis, and subsequent action can be based on the

outcome of these tests.

There is not really a difference of opinion on this. See also

previous remarks and section 4.2 of the report.

DHI

7.1

DHI

8.2

The Panel apologizes for this misunderstanding. It was not

always easy to fill the gap between the summary

description in the Scientific Documentation Report and the

full documentation of the process formulations in the

underlying reports. The fact that iron binding was included

is positive and increases the value of the mechanistic

models for investigating hypotheses regarding P. The

Panel’s report has been corrected by changing this remark.

Nobody can guarantee the quality of a procedure that has

not yet been tested, but it is good to see that the

suggestion will be part of future investigations

MOF, Alm.del - 2017-18 - Bilag 35: Rapporten fra det internationale ekspertpanel om evaluering af de danske marine modeller

the basis of a map showing the original model results,

allowing one to judge whether a management problem is

posed or not.

Valid point – and we will take this into account ahead,

although we will not conclude if it still will be appropriate

to average or not, but the map would help in the analysis

Point taken, and we will evaluate weather this will be valid

when continuing working with the RBMPs

p.36: Summarising, the Panel recommends postponing the

averaging operations to the very last stages of the

procedure.

p.36: In the opinion of the Panel, the meta-modelling of

the North Sea water bodies is less reliable than that of the

other water bodies

This is also the opinion of the researchers and a project

has been launched focusing on developing a mechanistic

model covering the North Sea water bodies.

p.40: Taking into account all aspects and associated

problems, the Panel has the impression that the

regionalised MAI are not sufficiently reliable to serve as a

basis for decision making and planning of load reduction

measures. Further, the MAI are only addressing nitrogen

load reductions and leaving out the possibility of

potentially managing water bodies via phosphorus load

reduction. However, models, competences and data are

available in Denmark to meet the challenge to calculate

regionalised MAI. Even a modified processing of the

existing model results might lead to much more reliable

MAI.

We basically acknowledge and agree on your suggestions

for future work

First of all, we wish to acknowledge the great effort that

has gone into the International Evaluation of the Danish

Marine Models. We consider the work essential and

hopefully it will have substantial influence on the Danish

River Basin Management Plans.

DHI

8.4

Good!

DHI

Is it correctly understood, that you are

concerned by the MAIs due to the course

typology and early averaging, but that

you basically acknowledge the models

and methods, and suggest updating

according to your recommendations to

achieve a stronger basis for setting the

reduction targets?

We apologize for slightly confusing language in our report.

We have adjusted the text to better express our view,

which indeed corresponds to your interpretation

DHI

Bæredygtigt

Landbrug

Com

men

ts to

the

eval

uati

Good!

Thanks for the compliments

MOF, Alm.del - 2017-18 - Bilag 35: Rapporten fra det internationale ekspertpanel om evaluering af de danske marine modeller

Bæredygtigt

Landbrug

proc

ess

Gen

eral

Bæredygtigt

Landbrug

2.1

As we understand it, the conclusion of the Evaluation is

that on an overall level, you find that Denmark has a very

solid data basis and that the statistical and mechanistic

model approach is a conceptual example to be

followed.

Reference Year 1900 The evaluation panel states that

model calculations are better than expert opinions: ”[…

[page 9] The Danish approach relies on modelling and a

1900 baseline, since there are no pristine ystems that can

be used as a reference. This approach is appropriate, WFD

compliant and better than only using expert judgement.

[...]” Furthermore, the panel states: ”[...] [page 21]

Currently, the overall inputs of N and P re roughly about

4.2 and 3.4 times higher, respectively, than estimated

reference inputs for the year 1900 (Riemann et al, 2016).

[...]” Unfortunately, it has not been possible to find the

referral source in the List of References for us to see the

background for the numbers mentioned. In fact these

“ancient” nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations in

watercourses emptying into fjords and coastal waters are

estimated by using expert judgement. (No data exist for

year 1900). Contemporary nutrient concentrations

measured in streams draining uncultivated soil

(“naturvandløb”) are not suitable as the majority of Danish

land was cultivated, and fertilizer (manure) was used 100

years ago. Therefore, one cannot assume that conditions

in “naturvandløb” directly can represent streams draining

farmed land more than 100 years ago!

That is right, but at the same time, we think more is

possible with these models and this knowledge, and that

improvements can and should be made

Bæredygtigt

Landbrug

5.1

The Panel states that great efforts have been made in

reducing the P load from especially waste water. We agree

that this effort must be acknowledged. However, Denmark

is still a country with a very large sewerage system with

Regardless the method, we would advise

the panel to consider making a note on

the considerable uncertainty of the

termination of the reference year. In this

connection we refer to the panel’s own

point that instead of taking only a single

stress factor into consideration, it is the

combination of a number of factors that

is important. Furthermore, the panel has

stated that the Danish typology ought to

be segmented further and that the

present limit of chlorophyll a of 3.6 mg

per m3 should be determined

individually and under consideration of

for instance the influence of

phosphorous. If the typology and the

determination objective of chlorophyll a

should be individualized - should the

reference year be likewise? Summing up,

we have the following questions: 1 Has

the panel considered the uncertainty by

determination of reference year 1900,

regardless of method? 2 Should the

reference year be individual in

consistency with the typology? 3 Should

the reference year take variation

between spring and summer into

consideration?

Can the panel recommend to

regulate/evaluate the status based on

“summer loads”?

The Panel has not been presented with the full

documentation of the methods used in estimating the

1900 nutrient loadings - the details of this were not part of

the evaluation. However, we feel that it is exaggerated to

call these estimates simply 'expert judgment' as to our

knowledge qualified scientific studies have been

performed to estimate 1900 loads and that their overall

results compare well with other estimates from other

Baltic Sea catchments. The use of loadings around 1900 is

an international standard. Especially for the countryside

and agriculturally dominated areas it is justified by the

calculations showing that the N and P surplus in

agriculture (difference between nutrient extraction as

harvest and addition as manure) was close to zero or

negative at that time.

We discussed the question of specifying reference

conditions per water body in our report, but concluded

that this was not feasible. Note, however, that site specific

characteristics of the water bodies (averaged over types -

a point that we criticize) were taken into account for

setting reference values

The Panel has not excluded, in its recommendations, that

further efforts be done in removing P from urban waste

waters. However, we have acknowledged that great

efforts have already been done and that this type of

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5.4

far from sufficient capacity, causing outflows of untreated

waste water directly into the water environment. There is

insufficient control of volume and concentration of these

outflows. Therefore, we find it difficult to understand that

it is accepted without question that nothing further can be

done in connection with P loads. It must also be pointed

out that for the last 10 to 20 years, water course

management has been downprioritized, which has led to

increased water levels and phosphorus mobilization in

areas drained to the water courses. Furthermore, many

wetland sites that are established in previous agricultural

areas with phosphorus saturation will also cause a

substantial phosphorus mobilization, which has not been

taken into consideration. In our opinion, recent

measurements of resuspension/fluctuation of P loads from

the seabed are insufficient. There is a much higher

resuspension of P loads than N loads. Consequently, it is

not only the outflow but also the volume and availability

of P loads in the water environment hat should be in

focus. In this connection, perhaps, the panel should

consider specific projects such as bottom trawls that

increase the phosphorus availability. The overall picture of

phosphor is lacking, in connection with the outflow as well

as volume and availability in the water environment.

Good Ecological Status The panel suggests that the status

(Good Ecological Status) can be regulated according to

summer loads: “[...][page 23] There seems to be a

possibility to regulate Good Ecological Status by focusing

on the summer loads, rather than on the yearly integrated

loads. [...]”

The Evaluation states that: ”[...][page 42] Current scientific

insight endorses the view that the overall reductions

proposed are necessary, but cannot guarantee that they

will be sufficient. Especially for benthic ngiosperms and

macrophytes, additional measures may be needed.[...]”

Focus in the Evaluation has been the models. In the

Evaluation it has been stated that there is no direct

connection between Kd and N. The statistical model and

the mechanistic model are being mixed together in too

measures is subject to the law of diminishing returns: any

additional effort will be expensive in relation to its effect.

We therefore recommended studying also alternative and

innovative ways to further reduce P loading. We think that

sufficient expertise is available to execute these studies.

We are skeptical regarding the suggestion to dredge away

P reservoirs in coastal waters and do not recommend it as

a promising avenue for further research.

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We have recommended studying this possibility, taking

into account two important aspects: 1) the effect on the

neighboring systems must be taken into account and 2)

the effect of the residence time of the nutrients in the

water body can be much longer than the residence time of

the water. We suggested that the mechanistic models

should be good tools to investigate these aspects.

We understand that the sentence was not clear enough

and have adjusted it in the text revision. We recommend

being more specific about the MAIs and trying to base

them on a water body specific approach. We further

recommend a number of potential improvements of the

model approaches. In short, we recommend refining the

models further before actual implementation in the plans,

but we do not think that this will change the order of

magnitude of the efforts required.

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Danmarks

Naturfrednin

gsforening

Gen

eral

early stages. The P load has not been taken into

consideration. The mechanistic model has potential for

including P loads in a better way.

However, presently the latter model does not include P

loads sufficiently. Also, the N:P ratio has not been

sufficiently considered. It is stated that other indicators

than eelgrass should be taken into account, i.e. other

species of angiosperm, and that this could possibly mean

that some areas already achieved “Good Ecological

Status”. A list of improvement points has been described

and a number of other issues have been mentioned in the

Evaluation. In the analysis, the panel has dealt stringently

and in great detail with the models. The focus of the panel

has been to evaluate which bolts are included in the

models and if the bolts fit

together in their mutual dependencies according to the

scientific knowledge represented by the panel. At no time

has the analysis gone into how much N, P, or N:P 16 ratio,

temperature, etc. should be determining “Good Ecological

Status”. However, the above sentence can be understood

in such a way that the N restrictions of the present water

management plans are necessary, although not necessarily

sufficient. Such a conclusion does not fit with the analysis

and the conclusion in 9.7 ”[...][page 40] Taking into

account all aspects and associated problems, the Panel has

the impression that the regionalised MAI are not

sufficiently reliable to serve as a basis for decisionmaking

and planning of load reduction measures..[...]” We are

afraid the panel’s statement could be misunderstood to

have a different meaning than intended. We would

therefore ask for the sentence to be taken out or to be

followed up with a detailed explanation based on the

analysis.

In Denmark there are too few measuring stations to be

able to subdivide in, for example, outer and inner fjords.

Furthermore only more continuous and regular data can

disclose if the effort is sufficient.

Is the Panel in agreement with the

comments, and if so how many in

Denmark and where should they be

placed in order to subdivide the Danish

water bodies and full fill the Panel’s

recommendation on this subject?

What more data is needed according to

The Panel has stressed the importance of good data bases

for the management of nutrient loads. The Panel is unable

to make precise recommendations about numbers of

stations or number of samples per year, but in general has

expressed the view that sufficiency of the data base should

be a concern for proper management

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Danmarks

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2.5

Danmarks

Naturfrednin

gsforening

3.2

There are other stressors than N in the marine

environment and Danish coastal waters. But they are not

additive. They do not allow choosing freely in reductions

to achieve the same percentage response. With reference

to the report of NIVA, Denmark: ‘Under the surface: a

gradient study of human impacts in Danish marine waters’

(rapport l.nr. 7128-2017 DK6) and the stressor weighting in

this report does not provide vidence that one might as

well work on any other stressors instead of nutrients to

achieve a corresponding improvement in the ecological

condition. Focus on nutrients in Danish waters is fully

justified and in

strict accordance with WFD. The Panel emphasizes the

importance of this focus. It is also apparent from the

Panel´s response and comments to the stakeholders,

saying, that N and P loads are 2 of the most important

pressures. The Danish Society for Nature Conservation

would like to emphasize that MSFD takes on a different

and wider range of stressors, which may be more holistic,

but in no way undermines the control of nutrient supplies

as crucial to reach Good Ecological Status (GES) in

accordance with WRD.

The Panel refers to, that The Common Implementation

Strategy for the WFD reminds member states that, when

developing a typology, they should keep the major

objective of the Directive in mind, namely to establish a

framework for the protection of both water quality and

water resources preventing further deterioration and

protecting and enhancing ecosystems. And the Panel

refers to, that typology is a tool to assist this process, and

it is recognised that a simple typology system needs to be

complemented by more complex reference conditions that

cover ranges of biological conditions. It means that every

country has the reedom to adjust the typology to its own

needs and to refine it to the required degree.

the Panel in addition to the data already

available to determine Maximum

Allowable Inputs (MAI) over the seasons?

Is the Panel in agreement with these

comments?

That is correct

Does the Panel assess, that Denmark has

a simpler typology than other member

states? Does the Panel believe that

Denmark without violating the WFD

could set up an even more simple

typology than today? With reference to

the recommendation that Denmark

should calculate reference conditions

and targets for each 119 water bodies in

Denmark, instead of refine the existing

typology (p. 43) to what extend does the

Panel find, that efforts decided

concerning lowering N-loading to the

water bodies should be set on standby

till this calculation has been done? And

The Panel in no way recommends postponing action until

an endless series of new studies has been completed.

However, it is of the opinion that the material that is

currently available already allows estimating MAIs with

higher resolution than the relatively coarse typology.

There seems to be no reason at all to further coarsen the

typology, given the wealth of data, models and knowledge

available.

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does the Panel assess, that Denmark can

do that without violating the WFD? To

what extent does the Panel believe that

Denmark should keep the major

objective of the WFD in mind,

considering the Panel’s assessment, that

targets for lower annual load of P could

be feasible in a number of systems (p.

21)?

Danmarks

Naturfrednin

gsforening

5.1

We have noticed that the Panel reports the following:

Summer situations are basis for the calculations, why the

Panel points out that there is focus on N limitation. Due to

that the importance of P in especially the great spring

production may be underestimated. This may mean more

costly reduction scenarios than necessary, especially in

areas with large N reduction requirements. The model

period 1990-2013 excludes the time before the large

reduction in the release of P, but reflects the current

situation of P-loading, as highlighted by the Panel and

therefore the Panel endorses the choice of period.

However, the Panel acknowledges that P reductions from

point sources have yet reached cost-effective limits, but

the inclusion of diffuse sources of P can be steadily

included in the input scenarios. The Panel recommends

testing the calculations with

seasonal inputs of N and P as a contribution to a detail of

the effort.

The panel emphasizes the models' exclusive focus on

summer indicators in combination with water bodies with

a short residence times implies a direct link between

summer loads of N and the indicator. But even though a

larger proportion of the N-loading takes place during the

winter and have been abducted from high-flow water

bodies during the winter months, the Nloading ends in

other waters bodies where it then affects EC. Therefore,

the Panel's assessment that MAI may be overestimated in

certain water bodies has to be seen in that context. The

Panel emphasizes that it is difficult to assess MAI focusing

on summer discharge in high-flow water bodies, and as we

understand the Panel finds it is possible to investigate

That is correct

Danmarks

Naturfrednin

gsforening

5.4

Does the Panel assess that investigations

on scenarios with seasonal regulation of

N will lead to more expert judgment?

Does the Panel assess that there are valid

climate data (rainfall, temperature, etc)

to calculate regionalised MAI depending

on the season?

There are sufficiently detailed data of rainfall, runoff and

seasonal nutrient concentrations to allow a study within

seasons. Such study does not need to be done for all water

bodies. The mechanistic models do resolve seasonal

patterns and should be sufficient to calculate realistic

scenarios within seasons. An important question,

however, is whether agriculture can steer seasonal cycles

of nutrient runoffs and what the margin for management

is. The Panel cannot judge these aspects but is aware of

the difficulties. The option is not a panacea, but it is

interesting enough for further analysis.

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Danmarks

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Danmarks

Naturfrednin

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9.7

scenarios with seasonal regulation of N. Referring to, that

the Panel also emphasizes that it is very positive to the

near lack of expert judgment in the work, the Panel does

not indicate whether such investigations on scenarios with

seasonal regulation of N will lead to more expert

judgment.

The Panel refers to that nutrient load reductions are

associated with high costs. We understand the Panel so

that reference is made to direct economic costs and not to

costs for nature and the environment. The Panel has not

commented on whether these costs will increase or

decrease if there is a delay of achieving GES by postponing

the effort to reduce the nutrient load. And the Panel has

not commented on whether these costs will increase or

decrease in order to protect the groundwater if

postponing the effort to reduce the nutrient load to the

marine waters.

The Panel writes, that taking into account all aspects and

associated problems, the Panel has the impression that

the regionalised MAI are not sufficiently reliable to serve

as a basis for decision making and planning of load

reduction measures.

The WFD aims at restoring GES in surface waters in

Europe. Furthermore the WRD aims at protecting the

groundwater. In Denmark about 20 % of the arable land

covers N-sensitive drinking water areas.

Does the Panel believe that the costs will

increase or decrease if the result of

regionalised MAI according to the models

is not used as basis for policy and

planning of load reductions measures?

It is true that costs are associated with nutrient load

reduction (direct economic costs, especially in agriculture),

but also with a lack of nutrient reduction (loss of

ecosystem services). The Panel has not analyzed any of

these cost categories, but only made general remarks on

optimizing the efforts: one should try to make any

measures as cost effective as possible. The Panel has not

advised on postponing measures at all, and is of the

opinion that adequate plans can be made for the

projected period.

The Panel is of the opinion that the models can be

improved and be made more water body specific, and that

this does not constitute an impossible effort

Danmarks

Naturfrednin

gsforening

We hope the Panel will comment on this,

when the Panel at the same time

emphasizes that the overall reductions

proposed are necessary, but cannot

guarantee that they will be sufficient (p.

42).

Does the Panel endorse, that a less

required load reduction than decided

today for The Danish water bodies due to

it is overestimated because of less

reliable regionalised MAI can have an

negative influence on N-loading to the

groundwater?

The Panel has not considered groundwater problems at all.

This was outside of the scope of the review

Danmarks

Naturfrednin

gsforening

Based on the evaluation of the Danish marine models by

the Panel, it can be concluded that:

1) It is necessary to focus on the nutrient reductions to the

Danish marine waters in order to achieve GES in

accordance with WFD.

2) It is correct to focus on reduction of N to achieve GES in

accordance with WFD.

3) The calculated MAI to achieve GES for the Danish water

bodies is necessary, but is not necessarily sufficient.

4) The Danish marine models are appropriate, and

The Panel report contains the full summary of conclusions

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Danmarks

Naturfrednin

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University of

Aarhus

2.1

Denmark should continue to apply these models to

calculate MAI.

5) There is an excellent scientific expertise in Denmark,

which on an objective basis and the use of available data

calculate MAI.

6) The Danish marine models used to calculate MAI

exclude where ever it is possible expert judgments.

Kd is not only depending on phytoplankton in Danish

waters bodies but also on e.g. resuspension of fine

material (p. 16). The Panel does not evaluate if it could be

taken into consideration to look on material discharge

from watercourses in order to achieve GES. While

chlorophyll a as a generally accepted and intercalibrated

indicator, there should be more focus on this indicator in

order to calculate MAI. In addition to the need of focusing

on reduction of N-loading, there may also be additional

value in looking at reduction of P-loading, to the Danish

marine waters. The Panel does not comment on the

necessity to reduce

P-loading to the Danish lakes, too in order to achieve GES

in accordance with WFD for the Danish lakes. Taking this

into consideration it could be useful to look at the

connection between P-loading to lakes and to coastal

waters. It may be useful to look at seasonal N-loading. This

is especially true where there is a large N-effort

requirement. The Panel does not comment or evaluate if it

could cause an increase in N-loading to other fjord

sections and the coastal waters. And the Panel does not

comment or evaluate if it could cause an increase in N-

loading to the groundwater.

Page 9: The panel states that: “Target values must fall in

the green (GES) range. However, the error bars of the

calculated target value should also fall in the green or blue

area. Therefore, the longer the error bars, the more the

target moves to the left and is consequently more

stringent.”

The Panel report contains the full list of recommendations.

The Panel has not reviewed any work on lakes or

groundwater and cannot comment on these points. With

respect to seasonal N regulation, the Panel has clearly

pointed to possible effects on other water bodies.

We acknowledge and agree on the logic

behind this statement and w uld like to

know if there is a reference to a WFD

document stating that error bars should

fall in the green (Good ecol. status) or

blue (High ecol. status) area?

University of

Aarhus

2.3

Page 10: The panel states that: “Kd has not been

intercalibrated (as confirmed by the researchers from

This argument was based on logic rather than on a strict

directive. If a model predicts that good environmental

status will only be reached with a probability of 50 % (as

half the uncertainty range lies above the limit), this cannot

be interpreted as ‘ensuring good ecological status’.

However, the statement has been removed from the

report as it may lead to discussion and is not strictly

necessary in this context.

The Panel acknowledges that Kd is a proxy for eelgrass

depth limit, which is an intercalibrated indicator. As such,

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Aarhus University (DCE) and DHI and the European

Commission’s Joint Research Centre)”

It is correct that the Kd indicator has not been

intercalibrated but the Kd indicator is a

transformation/translation of the eelgrass depth limit

indicator which has been intercalibrated.

Page 11: The panel states that Based on the “one-out, all-

out” principle, indicators for different quality elements

should be considered individually. If one is classified as

below the G/M boundary, then management measures

must be applied. This was not applied in the Scientific

Documentation Report.

It is correct that the one-out-all-out principle was not

followed, but since indictors which are ecological better

than the good-moderate status are set to zero (page 88 in

Scientific Documentation Report) in the calculations all

water bodies which are classified below G/M (i.e. at least

one indicator is below the G/M target) will induce a

nutrient reduction requirement in the calculations.

Page 13-15: The panel finds the typology coarse and the

diversity of chlorophyll a reference values low and

suggests refinement of the typology especially related to

water exchange and fresh water discharge.

We agree that the coarse typology result in a low diversity

of especially chlorophyll a reference values and that a

refined typology and/or cross system analysis would likely

improve the estimation of chlorophyll a reference values.

An ongoing project is examining the possibilities and

strategies to refine the typology and the chlorophyll a

reference values in order to reflect the characteristics of

Danish coastal water bodies in higher details. Comments

and suggestions from the panel will be addressed in the

project.

Page 15: This is important, because only the existence of a

monitoring station and regular data collection allows

assessing whether the target is reached or not.

Kd is a supporting quality element for the Eelgrass

biological quality element, but it has not been

intercalibrated in itself. For that reason one should discuss

whether it should have equal weight as Chlorophyll a.

The intercalibrated status of eelgrass depth limit has been

added to the text of the report to clarify the point.

The Panel has further commented on this principle in

chapter 4, and has indicated nuances to its position in this

debate. From a legal perspective, it is clear that the one-

out-all-out principle across different quality elements has

to be used, as was also clarified in the European

Parliament. In practice, however, independence of the

indicators Chlorophyll a and Kd with respect to the

categories is not clear, which leaves room for

interpretation.

University of

Aarhus

2.4

University of

Aarhus

Good!

University of

Aarhus

3.4

agreed

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University of

Aarhus

3.6

We agree – and want to stress that a comprehensive

monitoring program is crucial for the assessment of the

environmental status of Danish coastal waters.

Page 15: The panel states that: “The discussion process

within the accompanying official national working group

came to the conclusion that especially the different

estuaries and lagoons have so specific properties and

behaviours, and that type-specific Chlorophyll a and

nutrient reference and target values would be too general.

As a consequence, specific Chlorophyll a and nutrient

reference and target values were developed for every

single water body, resulting in 35 major Chlorophyll a

reference and target values for the German Baltic waters

alone”

We are aware of the German approach, and we agree that

it is a useful approach although it should be acknowledged

that due to high uncertainty in simulating a year 1900

situation variations between systems might reflect model

variability/uncertainty to a higher degree than actual

system variation. This is likely also the case with some of

the German targets.

Page 17: The panel states: “Therefore, it is unlikely that Kd

as a sole indicator covers the entire range of conditions

needed for eelgrass restoration, but it is even more

unlikely that restoration will succeed without at least

restoring Kd to the levels needed for the Good-Moderate

boundary conditions.

We agree with the panel on this aspect and we have in fact

data showing the same aspects as mentioned above this

quotation. On the other hand, it can also be argued that

since Kd in Danish water is governed by DOM and POM,

and not by chlorophyll a, over time a decrease in organic

matter content both in the water and in the sediment and

the other factors like oxygen condition will improve as

well. Note that resuspension of fine particles, mainly POM,

is the most significant parameter governing Kd in Danish

waters.

It is true that the standard deviation of the mean

decreases as the number of systems that have been

averaged increases. However, if there are systematic, and

explainable, variations between the systems, then

averaging over too broad a group of systems adds this part

of the variation to the noise, whereas system-specific

targets do not. For this reason the Panel has

recommended to set up the statistical analysis as a cross-

system analysis, so that the maximum of explainable

variation between the systems is not considered as noise

but taken into account in the model.

We are well aware and indicated that mechanistic model

approaches using a historic state are subject to

uncertainties and are not the only possible solution to

derive reference conditions. The combination of

mechanistic and statistical model approaches is

appreciated and endorsed by the Panel.

University of

Aarhus

3.7

The Panel does not feel that there is a real difference of

opinion about the underlying mechanisms determining Kd.

We have suggested relative freshwater influence as a

common cause in a cross-system perspective, and left it

open whether that relates to nutrients or to direct import

of organic matter or both. We have also acknowledged the

results of the statistical analyses, but stressed that the

slopes are unexpectedly low and that most significant

relations were found when concentrating on summer

values only. We agree that most probably the time delays

in the dependence of Kd on nutrients are much longer

than for Chlorophyll a. From all this we concluded that Kd

is not very responsive in the short run to nutrient

reduction, and likely to respond in a similar way as

Chlorophyll a in the long run. Although we are fully aware

of the importance of Kd as an ecological target, we are of

the opinion that it is less suitable as an indicator to base

MAI upon than Chlorophyll a. And we recommend this

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Page 17: The panel states: “The time course of Kd in the

water bodies studied by statistical modelling is shown in

the Annexes to this evaluation report. In most cases, it is

very difficult or impossible to detect

a significant downward trend in the values”

We are not surprised that a significant downward trend in

Kd cannot be recognized, The crucial point is that a

relationship between light attenuation and nutrient

loadings can be found. The slopes are, as noted in the

scientific report and by the panel, relatively low therefore

it will either require a constant monotonous decrease in

loadings, a sharp reduction over time or very long time

series to get a significant trend in the development of Kd.

Page 17: The panel states: “In summary, none of the

within-system statistical analyses or models seem to be

able to demonstrate a strong dependence of Kd on

nutrient loading in the period 1990-2013”.

This conclusion seems somewhat misplaced. As also

mentioned in the report we do find significant

relationships for 16 out of 22 water bodies. As

documented in the report documenting the models, there

as a plausible explanation for the low coefficient. We

would also like to draw the attention to the paper in

Limnology and Oceanography by Lyngsgaard et al. (2014)

that documents such a relationship.

Page 17 The panel states: However, when viewed across

systems, the data shown in annex B of the Scientific

Documentation Report for Chlorophyll a and Kd in the

systems studied with the statistical modelling strongly

suggest a close correlation between average Chlorophyll a

concentration and average Kd over the study period (see

Error! Reference source not

found. in Chapter 8). It is likely that a common cause –

most probably the relative influence of the freshwater end

member in the water of the estuary – determines both.

It should be noticed that in Danish waters Chlorophyll a

issue as an important aspect for further study, including

better mechanistic modeling

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contributes with about 5 to 20 percent of Kd. This has

been documented in several studies. The correlation

between Kd and Chlorophyll a is therefore, as correctly

suggested by the panel, due to a common factor.

However, this common fact is not freshwater or DOM in

freshwater, but the nutrients coming with freshwater.

Please consult the reference by Markager et al. (2011)

which shows that the overwhelming source of DOM in

Danish estuaries is not from freshwater, but from in situ

production fueled by nutrients coming with freshwater. A

similar study for Roskilde Fjord showing the same is

currently under review. Based on this, and other evidence,

we find it proven beyond reasonable doubt, that the main

mechanism governing variation in Kd over time is the

accumulation of organic matter, both as DOM and as POM

in the water and on the seafloor. Hence, nutrient loadings

are the underlying cause for the low Kd and also the key to

lower Kd-values.

We fully understand that the panel might be surprised

about this, as we know the mechanism is different, e.g. in

parts of the Baltic Sea, where direct DOC loadings with

freshwater, e.g. from peatlands, is governing Kd. However,

as shown the ratio of nutrients to DOC is important, and

this ratio is much higher in Danish catchments than in

most of the Baltic Sea.

Page 18: The panel recommends: “ In further work, the

Panel recommends reviewing the approach for this WFD

indicator by starting from the basic observation that not

Kd, but survival and restoration of aquatic angiosperm

vegetation is the real criterion. In some systems, this

criterion may actually be fulfilled by other species than

eelgrass (e.g. Ruppia or Potamogeton species), in which

case the criterion could also be considered as generally

fulfilled.”

We fully agree with the panel about this in the future.

However, as a suggestion for the next one to two decades

it is not feasible. The reason is that spreading of Zostera

marina is a slow process so the approach will face the

University of

Aarhus

4.1

The Panel is unsure whether this is a real point of

discussion. If for some reason another species of

angiosperm would take over the eelgrass niche, there

would be little chance to get eelgrass back but the

ecological function would be fulfilled. If, what is more

likely, other species cannot overtake this function in most

systems, then eelgrass distribution will remain as a target.

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same problems as we see for Kd – but even more

pronounced. The reason is again the time lag. Not only

does Kd need to improve, and the other factors mentioned

by the panel, but then the populations of Zostera marina

has to respond.

Comment: We agree with the panel about including other

species than Zostera marina. However, that will require a

formal decision by the authorities about changing the

indicator or develop additional indicators for the quality

element “angiosperms”. However, in the project we were

in principle restricted to use the formally accepted

indicator, which at the moment is Zostera marina. On the

other hand, since we have used Kd as a proxy this is only

an issue if the light requirements are different for Zostera

marina and the other species.

We don’t agree that other species per se could fulfill the

“eelgrass criteria” since other species may have different

light requirements, eutrophication tolerance etc. and

therefore need to be assessed against other reference

conditions than those defined for eelgrass. At present

eelgrass is the only angiosperm in Denmark for which a

reference condition has been defined.

P18-19: The panel suggest a downweight of the Kd

indicator: “In view of the apparent difficulties in estimating

the effect of nutrient reductions on Kd at short time

scales, the insufficiency of Kd as a representation of all

factors needed for restoration of seagrass, and the high

correlation between Kd and Chlorophyll a both in 19 status

and targets at longer time scales, the Panel suggests to

relatively downweigh the importance of Kd in the final

calculations of reductions needed”

The relative weight of the indicators can of course be

discussed, however, since Kd is highly ecological relevant

and since the Kd target values are based on outstanding

historical data, the Kd indicator has several advantages.

The fact that fulfilment of the Kd target is a necessary but

not sufficient criterion for eelgrass restoration and depth

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4.1

See higher. There is a difference between the ecological

significance of water transparency or accuracy of the

historical data - these are beyond doubt - and its

usefulness as an instrument to determine MAI as

accurately as possible. The fact that very often nutrient

reductions beyond physical possibilities would be

required, casts doubts on the latter aspect.

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4.2

limit target do - in our opinion - justify not to down weight

Kd.

Page 20: The panel states that: “We note that there is

considerable disagreement in the literature on the correct

value of Km, the Monod limitation parameter, and that it

differs considerably between different phytoplankton

species and groups.

This is a minor issue since the threshold for “number of

days with nutrient limitation” is estimated based on the

correlation between the number of days and the

chlorophyll a concentration; hence higher Km would have

resulted in a larger threshold and vice versa for a lower

Km.

Page 20: The panel states that: “In summary, even though

the ancillary indicators aim at describing important

ecological phenomena, it is not easy to translate them into

required load reductions (expert judgment and look-up

tables are needed) and their added value compared to

Chlorophyll a and Kd is limited. Therefore, the Panel is of

the opinion that these indicators do not bring a substantial

improvement of the approach”

From these statements, and several other places, we get

the impression that the panel is much in favor of

Chlorophyll a as the most import indicator for

eutrophication. We fully acknowledge that Chlorophyll a is

a relevant indicator. However, in our experience the use of

Chlorophyll a as indicator is hampered by three serious

problems. One problem is to get reliable reference values

as historical Chlorophyll a data do not exists and modelled

reference conditions are subject to uncertainties. Another

disadvantage is the poor relationship between Chlorophyll

a and phytoplankton biomass due to the systematic

changes that occur in the C:Chlorophyll a ratio for

phytoplankton (see paper in Limnology and Oceanography

by Jakobsen and Markager (2016) for an analysis of this).

In essence, changes in Chlorophyll a do not necessarily

reflect changes in phytoplankton biomass. Another even

more significant problem by using Chlorophyll a as an

The Panel agrees that Km is a minor problem, and that Chl-

a is not THE ideal indicator of eutrophication. The Panel

also agrees that other indicators may have high ecological

significance. In particular oxygen depletion is probably the

most important and directly relevant indicator. For this

reason the Panel has recommended pursuing modeling

studies that will one day allow to establish reliable dose-

effect relations between nutrient loading and these direct

indicators of eutrophication. This is, however, not

presently the case and therefore, again, the Panel stresses

the difference between ecological significance and

usefulness as an indicator for the establishment of MAI at

the present moment.

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indicator for eutrophication is that phytoplankton biomass

governed by the balance between primary production and

loss where grazing is important. Thus, as decrease in

primary production, followed by a decrease in grazer

biomass (benthic or pelagic) might result in only small

changes in Chlorophyll a concentration. Thus, our thoughts

are currently to decrease the weight put on Chlorophyll a

as it is far from being the ideal indicator for

eutrophication. That said, it is still useful and an

intercalibrated indicator, but there is a need to

supplement it with other indicators.

We do agree with the panel that the translation from a

status in the ancillary indicators to a required load

reduction can be improved substantially, but we don´t

share the panel’s opinion that these indicators do not

bring substantial improvement to the approach. On the

contrary, we believe that all selected indicators are

relevant eutrophication measures and that they

complement each other well (e.g., the Chlorophyll a

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4.2

concentration may, in one place, be low due to high

grazing, here the nutrient limitation indicator will

compensate for a Chlorophyll a concentration that does

not reflect the eutrophication level).

Page 22 The panel states that: “In general, the Panel is of

the opinion that the selection of indicators only

representing summer conditions could be too restrictive.”

We highly agree. In order to assess the ecological status

and propose efficient measures a broader suite of

indicators is desirable. As stated in the scientific

documentation we also propose indicators covering the

spring period and we are currently examining potential

indicators relevant for identifying P sensitive ecosystems

allowing for a future quantification of P target loads. The

choice of e.g. May till September as the assessment period

for Chlorophyll a is in our opinion not ideal but chosen

simply because it is the WFD intercalibrated indicator for

phytoplankton.

University of

Aarhus

5.2

Does the panel have suggestions for

relevant indicators and suggestions for

how to get reliable target values without

going through the intercalibration

process which is extremely time

consuming?

1) Does the panel have experience with

year-averaged chlorophyll a

concentrations as an indicator?

2) Does the panel have suggestions for

how to include non-intercalibrated

indicators

The Panel unfortunately has no direct suggestions on how

to shortcut the intercalibration process. However, it

recommends pursuing studies into the subject with the

aim of proving clear and useful relations between nutrient

loading and ecologically significant indicators. This is likely

to facilitate the intercalibration if the studies show

promising results that may also be of use for neighboring

countries.

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Page 22: The panel states that: Based on the different

factors leading to a focus on N load reduction, the Panel

concludes that the study does not demonstrate significant

contributions from P loads on

the summer indicators, but the evidence is not strong

enough to exclude that P reductions or combined N and P

reductions could be effective in reducing year-averaged

chlorophyll levels as well as sediment oxygen demand.

We highly agree. There is a strong evidence in the

scientific literature that P is important also for coastal

marine ecosystems and even thought we could not

demonstrate strong P load effects for the intercalibrated

indicators we cannot and should not rule out P as an

important pressure for marine ecosystems.

Focus on yearly- or growth season- Chlorophyll a

concentrations should be considered as also stated in the

Scientific Documentation Report, however we face the

challenges that these indicators are nor intercalibrated

and hence from a management perspective are

“unimportant”.

Optimizing efforts in both space and time is desirable but

requires knowledge/models/data with high spatial and

temporal resolution which is often not available. With

respect to seasonal optimization it is also necessary to

include adjacent water bodies since nutrients

(conservatively) flushed out of one water body will affect

other water bodies. And as noted by the panel, the

retention time of nutrients in the system is most likely

much higher than the hydraulic residence time suggest

and in addition complicated to quantify. Hence, addressing

seasonality is a desirable but also very ambitious task.

Page 25: The panel states that: “Subsequently, for this

system, the slope will be estimated as the average type-

specific slope, almost inevitably leading to a higher slope

than shown by the data. This will then lead to a lower

reference and target value for the system than the one

suggested by the data. As these

reference values will enter into a type-specific averaging

afterwards, the final consequences of these choices

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Aarhus

5.4

We agree, and have stressed both points in our

recommendations

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Aarhus

6.2

The Panel is now confused about the method used. We

cite from page 43: "The first conclusion would lead to

omission of nitrogen loadings as a management tool for

that specific area. The other implies that nitrogen loadings

might affect the status of the ecosystem. We assumed that

the latter is the case and therefore used an average

response for nitrogen loadings versus the response

variable obtained from similar areas (the so-called meta

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become difficult to assess, but likely affect the targets for

all systems in the type”

This is based on a misunderstanding since type-specific

slopes are not used to calculate reference values.

University of

Aarhus

6.2

Page 25: The panel states that: “responses of indicators to

short term variations in nutrient loads will not necessarily

be the same as the decadal-scale responses that the study

really wants to estimate”

We agree with this point, but we are also convinced that

to solve the decadal response solidly, a more than two

decades long data series is required

Page 25: The panel states that: “For instance, high

discharge will not only increase the total load of nutrients

to a system, but simultaneously also decrease the

freshwater residence time and thus the ability of the

ecosystem to take up and use these nutrients.

We did see this in a few estuaries with very low residence

time (e.g. Randers fjord) but for the majority of the

estuaries there was no effect of high discharge.

Page 25-26: The panel states that: “The relative influence

of freshwater in the water, dependent on discharge rates,

flushing rates and exchange rates with the coastal system,

will most probably be a key parameter”

We agree on this, and this is basically what the “F-factor”

is compiled of, and this was used to categorize the water

bodies

Page. 26: First, the procedures of the statistical and

mechanistic modelling should not be unduly mixed at early

stages

We do not agree that this is the case. We “mix” the

model approach, see section 8.6)." And from section 8.6:

"As the meta model water bodies all belong to Type 2

(semi-enclosed water bodies with low freshwater

influence) or Type 3 (semi-enclosed water bodies with high

freshwater influence), type-specific cause-effect

relationships for these two categories were estimated as

an average of slopes derived from statistical models

developed for water bodies of the same type." How else

should we interpret this than that type-specific average

slopes have replaced the non-significant slopes?

We agree that data series are always too short when one

analyses them, but would you rather wait for another two

decades before doing anything about nutrient loading?

In addition, we think that cross-systems analysis will help

to resolve this issue better.

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Aarhus

6.2

We have no idea how important this might be, but it

requires attention

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Aarhus

6.2

It is our feeling that the information in the F-factor has not

been exploited to its full potential, as seen by the

relatively broad categories in the types

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Aarhus

6.2

This is a point of disagreement. We think the statistical

modeling would have a much clearer contribution to the

overall evaluation process if it is kept independent from

the mechanistic modeling approach. Besides,

inconsistency problems (unattainable targets) would be

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8.2

models with the aim to establish model independent

chlorophyll a reference values and apply these similar to

the way we use the Kd reference values (which are derived

from historical eelgrass observations). Otherwise only MAI

results are mixed (for meta-models).

Page 34: The panel staes that: In the opinion of the Panel,

the most problematic aspect of the procedure is the

averaging of Chlorophyll a reference (and GM boundary

target) values across model types and within water body

types.

Regarding “not averaging across model types”

The “true” reference (year 1900) value is independent of

the method used to determine it. In practice an estimated

reference value depends on the method but effort should

be used to come as close as possible to the true reference

value. Otherwise it will not be possible to compare a

reference value with measured data (status values). In that

respect we disagree in the suggestion about not averaging

across model types.

Averaging across model types may lead to apparent

inconsistencies when using models to calculate MAI. This is

also the case when using historical data as reference

values, however this should not be handled by using

method/model dependent reference values. Method

independent reference and target values should always be

the (ambitious) goal.

Regarding “not averaging across water body types”

For water bodies where site-specific reference values

cannot be established, type-specific reference values are

necessary and this requires averaging within water body

types (unless cross-system models are used). For water

bodies where site-specific reference values can be

established (and considered reliable) these could be used

when considered more reliable than the type-specific

value. This is how historical eelgrass data are used.

However, based on the relatively low variation in model

estimated site-specific reference values within each type

we do not expect much higher variation using site-specific

much reduced

Estimating reference values using a single modeling

approach is the default approach that most countries use.

Denmark is probably unique in developing two model lines

that can be used to investigate the robustness of the

approaches. We endorse this approach, but at the same

time feel that much of the advantage is lost when the two

model approaches are not kept independent until the

stage of comparing their final results. In addition, the

statistical model loses the ability to perform a decent

uncertainty analysis because it incorporates external

information. Compared to these disadvantages, we feel

that very little is gained by the mixing of the models at a

too early stage.

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values relative to type-specific reference values.

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Aarhus

8.2

Page 35: The panel states that “If one of the methods is

biased (e.g. is clearly unable to make reliable estimates in

particular types of systems), averaging is a worse solution

than dropping the bad prediction”.

We agree, but since we have no a priori knowledge about

potential model bias, averaging is the best solution.

Page 35: Panel suggests dropping these ancillary indicators

from the procedure. It will make the two modelling

approaches more comparable without apparent loss of

information on the ecosystem.

As argued earlier we do not agree with the panel on this

issue and we have compared the two models from various

separate perspectives including slopes, reference values

and the targets based on each approach.

Page 35 The panel states that: “Very little justification is

given for the choice to give prevalence to the mechanistic

models where both models are available. Even if the

choice could be well justified (which is questionable since

an independent comparison is impossible), it contrasts

with the meta-modelling approach where both are

averaged. Consistency in the choice would improve the

overall approach”

We agree and averaging across model types is likely a

better choice.

Page. 37: Since nutrient load management is a complex

task and nutrient load reductions are associated with high

costs, reliable overall and regionalised MAI are of

outstanding importance.

We are seriously in doubt about what the panel means by

the term ‘regionalised MAI’. Particular when we read and

compare with the sentence on p. 43 (highlighted). The

recommendation by the panel is what we have done. The

reported results do in fact have one ‘MAI’ for each of the

119 water bodies. Regional averaging/lumping has only

been performed in situations where the apparent variation

We think that comparison, and detection of possible bias,

is much better possible if the model lines are kept

separate and not averaged across types. That will be a

better basis for determining the final strategy.

University of

Aarhus

8.2

You will agree, however, that the ancillary indicators

require unclear expert judgment and in that respect

contrast with the overall evidence-based approach. The

Panel endorses further study of these indicators across the

two model lines, including dose-effect relations, before

including them

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Aarhus

8.2

Averaging across model types, or not, would ideally be

based on a critical comparison of independent results of

the two model lines

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Aarhus

We apologize for slightly confusing language in our report.

We have adjusted the text to better express our view

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could not be scientifically justified.

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Aarhus

Page. 43: Panel recommends deriving one MAI per water

body in this way and only deciding in a later phase on

regional averaging or lumping, when scientific results are

translated into management actions.

In our view, the WFD directive requires one MAI per water

body to be estimated, so we believe we are in line with the

panel in this aspect.

Page 37: Therefore, the very good agreement in the

assumed relative reduction requirements between both

countries indicates that the values meet the right order of

magnitude and seem reasonable.

However, the reliability of regionalised MAI depends on

the approach for calculating reference conditions and

subsequent target conditions, the typology and type-

specific targets, the considered indicators, the applied

weighting, the model and meta-model approach as well as

the data processing and aggregation. The major question

is if all these aspects are sufficiently taken into account

and if the application has a sufficient quality to determine

reliable regionalised MAI and mitigation needs to achieve

the GES in Danish coastal waters.

We are pleased to see that our overall estimate is in line

with German values, and acknowledge the many

similarities in landscape and land-use

As stated above, we have not estimated regionalized MAI

but one MAI pr water body. We agree with the panel

about the list of factors contributing to the uncertainties

of MAI values. Given the overall positive conclusions in the

report we find that the panel have endorsed that our

approach is sufficient, albeit not perfect.

Page 38: For the definition of reliable targets, the question

is less how did it look like in 1900, but rather how would

reference conditions in a region look like, assuming

present land-use and population pattern. This means that

targets and regionalised MAI based on historic conditions

around 1900 bear uncertainties and for some water bodies

Yes, with that nuance that the Panel also recommends to

be as specific as possible in setting reference values, and

to forego types as this leads to unnecessary coarsening

University of

Aarhus

9.1

This section is also cluttered by imprecise language in our

report. We mean a MAI per water body, based wherever

possible on a water body specific target.

University of

Aarhus

9.2

We are all aware of the problems, but seem to agree on

the conclusions

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may require a deeper analysis. This is especially true for

areas with known strong changes between 1900 and

today. However, the Panel agrees that this approach is the

best choice that still ensures full compliance with technical

WFD implementation guidelines.

We are surprised about this statement in this context. We

consider this as a political and perhaps juridical issue. Our

report was made on the clear assumption given by the

authorities that reference conditions reflect the conditions

around the year 1900. From a scientific perspective we can

share some of the concern if GES is feasible given changes

in e.g. land-use and climate, but as we see it, it requires a

political decision or a verdict from the commission to

change this.

We interpret this statement as a support to our approach.

Page 38 Climate change shows its effects only gradually on

a time horizon of decades, while the implementation of

the WFD and measures to reach GES must take place

within a decade

Good point. The time scale issue will to some extent also

apply to long term nutrient effects, e.g. regime shifts.

Page 38: The Scientific Documentation Report addresses

this topic and, in our opinion, provides sufficient evidence

and reasons why climate change has not been taken into

account in the definition of targets and in calculating MAI

in Denmark.

Comment: We are very pleased that the panel agree with

our view on this aspect.

Page 38 However, several nutrient load reduction

measures in river basins show the full effect only after

decades. Major effects of climate change on Danish

coastal waters, very likely, will result from changed

nutrient loads as a result of altered spatial and seasonal

precipitation and discharge patterns.

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Aarhus

9.3

we agree on this point

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9.4

Comment: This work is based on the loadings directly to

the recipient (not adjusted for discharge). Hence the

climate-related variation in loadings are covered in this

framework. How the climate change will affect the run-off

and how it should be handled are catchment modelling

and managing questions. The targets and the slopes will

not change due to this issue

Page 39: As indicated in Chapter 3, the Panel has the

opinion that the Danish typology used in the Scientific

Documentation Report does not sufficiently reflect the

individual properties of the many Danish fjords and inner

coastal waters. This is also true for the typology reported

in Dahl et al (2005). Type-specific targets for the

indicators, especially Chlorophyll a, that are applied to a

wide range of significantly different water bodies do not

sufficiently reflect their properties and behaviour to loads

reductions. Consequences are less reliable regionalised

MAI. This may cause an underestimation of the required

load reduction for some water bodies and an

overestimation for others.

We fully agree with the panel on this aspect. However, it is

important for us to emphasize that the typology was a

condition for the project, and not something we could

change as part of the modelling project. We are happy

with the recommendation and also that a new project has

been initialized by the Danish EPA on this aspect.

In principle, we agree with the panel about this statement.

Due to e.g. type specific Chlorophyll a and Kd reference

values the calculated MAIs for each water body may

deviate from the “true” MAI value. However, since 1) Kd

reference values are based on historical observations with

incredible spatial resolution and 2) the variance in

modelled site specific Chlorophyll a reference values

within each type is relatively small, potential under/over

estimation of water body MAI is not significant. In

addition, as mentioned before we have not calculated

regionalised MAIs but one MAI pr. water body.

See previous remarks

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9.5

Page 39: The Panel agrees that Chlorophyll a is a core

indicator, and coastal water body-specific Chlorophyll a

concentrations are a sound basis for calculating

regionalised MAI. Further, the Panel agrees that water

transparency has to be restored as one necessary

condition to enable the recovery of eelgrass in coastal

waters. Potentially, Kd can serve as an indicator for

describing suitable growing conditions for eelgrass.

Eelgrass can serve to indicate the status of macrophytes, a

biological element in the WFD. Therefore, Kd has the

potential to be an important parameter for calculating

MAI.

Further, Kd shows only a slow response to load reduction,

the data are subject to high variability, and it shows a

correlation to Chlorophyll a. Altogether, we consider Kd as

a less suitable indicator in many Danish coastal water

bodies. A strong weight of Kd in the calculation of MAI

should be avoided and would add uncertainty to

regionalised MAI.

We are pleased that the panel agree with our emphasis on

the indicators Chlorophyll a and Kd.

Comment: We are somewhat surprised about this

conclusion, as we see it the other way. Given the strong

data based evidence for the reference conditions for Kd

and the important structuring effect on coastal ecosystem

of light attenuation, we find that Kd is a very important

indicator. However, we acknowledge the problems with

time lag for Kd response.

In contrast, the use of Chlorophyll a as indicator is

hampered by the fact that we do not have strong data

supported evidence for a year 1900 reference condition.

Chlorophyll a concentrations in year 1900 can be

estimated using models, however, these estimates are

uncertain as the models are used way outside the range

for which data are available and the fact that many

drivers, e.g. loadings, and boundary conditions are highly

uncertain. Hence both indicators are associated with

• What is the reasoning behind this

statement?

In our view, based on decades of working

with these data, we can see that the Kd

has a lower variability than Chlorophyll a,

which reflect the fact that Chlorophyll a,

and phytoplankton biomass can undergo

large short term variations whereas Kd,

governed by e.g. DOM concentrations,

are quite stable.

This is a repetition of arguments. We have answered the

essence of these questions.

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uncertainties.

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Aarhus

9.5

Page 39: In the Scientific Documentation Report, other

indicators are sometimes mentioned and used in the

statistical model. We do not see a major advantage of

these indicators for the calculation of MAI, because they

do not provide significant new information or show

correlations to the exiting indicators.

We are highly surprised about this statement. We find

these indicators, in essence hypoxia and nutrient

limitation of phytoplankton, to be key indicators for the

environmental status of shallow coastal ecosystems.

Moreover, they do really add to MAI in the sense that they

decrease the weight on Kd (slow response) and

Chlorophyll a (uncertain reference values).

Page 39: In general, the mechanic model has a very good

potential for calculating regionalized MAI, but in the

present state it does not cover all water bodies. The

statistical modelling is based on real monitoring data, and

in most coastal water bodies it can serve as a valuable tool

to assess long-term trends as well as the mechanistic

model performance. As indicated in Chapter 8, the model

application and the process of calculating regionalised MAI

are complex and not entirely convincing. Most problematic

is the averaging of Chlorophyll a reference values across

both models and within coastal water types. This has

negative consequences for the meta-modelled water

bodies as well.

We are pleased that the panel support the use of both

types of models.

As stated above, we are not calculating regionalized MAI

but water body specific MAI. In principle, we agree with

the statement that averaging of reference conditions for

Chlorophyll a is undesirable. However, we do not see an

alternative and in essence this underscores the

problematic issues about a reference condition for

Chlorophyll a and hence the use of this indicator.

Page 40: The panel states that: “The calculation of

University of

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9.5

You are calculating site-specific MAI, but based on type-

specific targets, therefore your statement is too strong.

Further, where mechanistic model results are available,

your statistical model results are not used, and the

mechanistic model results are regionally averaged.

Therefore, the resulting map of required reductions is

relatively coarse, reflecting these choices.

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9.7

It is quite well possible that the use of river basin models

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Aarhus

regionalised MAI is a challenging task, but potentially has

one major advantage: It allows the development of water

body-specific management options and solutions. For this

purpose, the coastal water and sea models should be

combined with river basin models providing information

about the quantitative potential and efficiency of single (or

sets of) measures and providing load reduction scenarios

for coastal models.

As stated above, water body specific MAI were calculated

– not regionalized MAIs.

We fully agree with the desirable in this approach.

However, it is important to point out that this was beyond

the scope of the task we were given. We have treated

exactly this in several research projects over the last

decade, but the Danish EPA did not incorporate this in the

project aims. River basin models do exist and are used, but

the coupling with the marine models was the

responsibility of the Danish EPA.

Page 40: The panel states that: If river basin models are

able to provide nutrient load data on a monthly basis, this

would allow the development of scenarios that take into

account the seasonality of emissions. Assessing how

seasonally differentiated emissions affect the status of

coastal water bodies could lead to optimised, cost-

effective management.

The river basin models delivered data for loadings on a

seasonal, in fact daily basis. In the statistical models we

used monthly values, and the statistical models do in fact

take the seasonal distribution into account. This has also

been pointed out in our response to questions from the

panel.

Making scenarios addressing seasonality is however not an

easy task since adjacent water bodies have to be taken

into account and since nutrient retention in the coastal

zone is highly complex and not fully understood.

Page 40: The panel states that: “Taking into account all

was beyond the scope of the project. We have not

analyzed that aspect.

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Aarhus

9.7

Questions

• What does the panel mean by regional

MAIs?

• Is the statement related to all

estimated MAIs including MAIs for water

bodies with site-specific models and

where effects of uncertainty in

target/status values can be assessed?

And if so, would the use of site-specific

target values (if they exist) improve the

MAI results?

• Is the statement mostly related to

meta-model areas (which are not

necessarily well represented by the

typology)? and does the panel agree that

a revision of the typology/cross system

analysis would reveal if some areas are

“misplaced” and likely increase the

reliability of the MAI estimates?

We find it a political responsibility of the

Our statement is that the knowledge, data and models

seem sufficient to estimate water-body specific

references, targets and MAIs, that this is an almost unique

position and that this should be exploited to the maximum

possible extent. While it is obviously a task of politics to

decide on what basis to manage WFD, we feel that it is in

everybody's interest to maximize the use of available

knowledge and models.

MOF, Alm.del - 2017-18 - Bilag 35: Rapporten fra det internationale ekspertpanel om evaluering af de danske marine modeller

aspects and associated problems, the Panel has the

impression that the regionalised MAI are not sufficiently

reliable to serve as a basis for decision making and

planning of load reduction measures. Further, the MAI are

only addressing nitrogen load reductions and leaving out

the possibility of potentially managing water bodies via

phosphorus load reduction. However, models,

competences and data are available in Denmark to meet

the challenge to calculate regionalised MAI. Even a

modified processing of the existing model results might

lead to much more reliable MAI.”

We are somewhat surprised about this

statement/sentence since it seems very different from the

overall conclusion. We do agree that the estimates of MAI

can be improved, but we strongly disagree with a

statement saying that they cannot serve as a basis for

decision-making.

As stated we are not quite sure what is meant by

regionalised MAIs. We have estimated one MAI pr. water

body and only for open water types applied a kind of

regionalisation. For the coastal types we have applied

typology derived (might be interpreted as regionalisation)

or site specific Chlorophyll a and Kd reference values and

we have used either site-specific or typology-derived

model slopes. The use of typologies is an integrated part of

the WFD and we have used type-specific values whenever

these were considered more reliable that site-specific

values.

Although it is not within our competences to determine

the reliability criteria for decision making, the uncertainty

estimates and sensitivity tests that we have performed

indicate, that the deviations in estimated MAIs are

relatively small between model approaches and when

including variations in status and target values (whether

these are attributed to uncertainties in

measured/modelled values or to deviations from a type-

specific value)

authorities to decide if a given approach

– in this case modelling - is sufficiently

reliable to be applied in management.

Such a decision will, in the end, depend

on other available alternatives and may

also be to use mere expert judgements.

• What is the panels criteria for

sufficiently reliable?

MOF, Alm.del - 2017-18 - Bilag 35: Rapporten fra det internationale ekspertpanel om evaluering af de danske marine modeller

To illustrate the impact of using type-specific instead of

site specific Chlorophyll a targets for the MAI estimates we

have used Roskilde Fjord as an example. This estuary has a

high target Kd value (0.66) and a site-specific Chlorophyll a

target value of 3.9. Using type-specific and site-specific

target values result in MAIs of 398 Tons N/year and 412

Tons N/year, respectively –a difference of 4%.

Applying either type-specific or site-specific reference

values for Odense yderfjord (which has the largest

deviation between type and site-specific Chlorophyll a

target values) results in MAIs of

117 Tons N/year and 98 Tons N/year, respectively –a

difference of 16%.

That said is likely that some of the (meta-model) water

bodies are not well represented by the typology and for

the meta-model areas is it not possible to perform (true)

sensitivity tests/quantify the uncertainty.

Page 40: The panel states that: ….. Further, the MAI are

only addressing nitrogen load reductions and leaving out

the possibility of potentially managing water bodies via

phosphorus load reduction. However, models,

competences and data are available in Denmark to meet

the challenge to calculate regionalised MAI. Even a

modified processing of the existing model results might

lead to much more reliable MAI.”

As stated above, we support the view that phosphorus

should be addressed as well and we will follow the

suggestions made by the panel regarding re-examination

of the effects of P for the intercalibrated indicators and

include additional indicators although these most likely

have to be linked to the intercalibrated indicators.