Europaudvalget 2017-18
EUU Alm.del Bilag 285
Offentligt
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SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF BREXIT FOR
FOUR LARGER FISHING PORTS AND THEIR
COMMUNITIES
An assessment of potential consequences of Brexit for the ports and communities
of Skagen, Hirtshals, Hanstholm and Thyborøn.
A report by Eliasen, Søren Qvist; Kirkfeldt, Trine Skovgaard; Aaen, Sara and Jacobsen, Rikke Becker
IFM, Aalborg University
January 2018
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 EUU, Alm.del - 2017-18 - Bilag 285: Analyse af de mulige socioøkonomiske konsekvenser af brexit for de fire største danske fiskerihavne
Eliasen, Søren Qvist; Kirkfeldt, Trine Skovgaard; Aaen, Sara and Jacobsen, Rikke Becker 2017. Socio-
economic consequences of Brexit for four larger fishing ports and their communities. An assessment of
potential consequences of Brexit for the ports and communities of Skagen, Hirtshals, Hanstholm and
Thyborøn. Aalborg University,
ISBN nr. 978-87-91404-98-6, the serie 91404 Teknologi, Miljø og Samfund, Institut for Planlægning.
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 EUU, Alm.del - 2017-18 - Bilag 285: Analyse af de mulige socioøkonomiske konsekvenser af brexit for de fire største danske fiskerihavne
CONTENTS
1
2
3
SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................. 7
INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 11
PRESENTATIONS OF THE FOUR COMMUNITIES ...................................................................................... 14
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
4
Skagen.............................................................................................................................................. 16
Hirtshals ........................................................................................................................................... 19
Hanstholm ....................................................................................................................................... 21
Thyborøn ......................................................................................................................................... 24
THE FISHING INDUSTRY IN THE FOUR COMMUNITIES ............................................................................ 27
4.1
4.2
The fleets ......................................................................................................................................... 27
Landings ........................................................................................................................................... 30
The geographical origin ........................................................................................................... 30
Landing volumes ...................................................................................................................... 31
Landing value ........................................................................................................................... 32
Conclusions on the profiles of the ports ................................................................................. 34
The influence of other EU vessels’ landings caught in the UK EEZ .......................................... 34
4.2.1
4.2.2
4.2.3
4.2.4
4.2.5
5
ANALYSIS OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF BREXIT ......................................................... 37
5.1
Economic and employment consequences ..................................................................................... 37
Operationalisation of scenarios ............................................................................................... 37
Scenario 1 – Economic and employment effects .................................................................... 38
Scenario 2 – Economic and employment effects .................................................................... 40
Conclusions on economic and employment consequences of Brexit scenarios ..................... 42
5.1.1
5.1.2
5.1.3
5.1.4
5.2
Overall influence from decreasing fishing activities in the four communities ................................ 43
Dependency ............................................................................................................................. 43
Resilience ................................................................................................................................. 45
Conclusion on potential effects for the communities ............................................................. 46
5.2.1
5.2.2
5.2.3
6
TRENDS AND FURTHER PERSPECTIVES ON BREXIT CONSEQUENCES ...................................................... 48
6.1
6.2
Spread effects in the fishing industry .............................................................................................. 48
Counteracting activities in the industry .......................................................................................... 48
7
8
CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................................................... 50
APPENDICES ............................................................................................................................................. 53
8.1
Respondents .................................................................................................................................... 53
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8.2
Extended description of assumptions and operationalisation of scenarios and calculations ........ 54
8.2.1
Calculating the loss of landing value for the vessels and allocation to land-based sectors in
the scenarios............................................................................................................................................ 54
8.2.2
8.2.3
8.2.4
8.3
9
Allocation of lost landing value to reduced turnover for sectors at the home port ............... 55
Modelling the economic and employment consequences of the scenarios ........................... 55
Effects of loss of fish resources for processing industries (scenario 2 only) ........................... 56
Dependency model.......................................................................................................................... 58
REFERENCES............................................................................................................................................. 61
List of figures and tables
List of tables
Table 1.1:
The calculated direct loss of income (turnover) for vessels and induced loss of turnover for service
providers, regional level.
Table 1.2:
The calculated direct loss of jobs (full-time equivalents) under scenario 1 and 2 – all at the regional level.
Table 1.3:
Assessment of community dependencies on UK-EEZ landings.
Table 3.1:
Population in the communities and their municipalities, 2017. Source: Statistics Denmark, BY1.
Table 3.2:
Unemployment as a percentage of the labour force in the municipalities of the four communities, per
January. Source: Statistics Denmark, AUP02, month 1.
Table 4.1:
Volume of all (Danish and foreign) landings in the four ports, tonnes, average 2011–2015. Most important
species in the port are marked in bold. Source: Dynamic landing statistics, lbst.dk.
Table 4.2:
Landings from the UK EEZ, Danish vessels. Average 2011–2015, tonnes. Most important species in
the port marked in bold. Source: The Danish AgriFish Agency vessel register, logbook and sales notes register.
Table 4.3:
Relative importance of landing volume from the UK EEZ by Danish vessels of all landings
(Danish and foreign) in the four ports, %, average 2011–2015.
Table 4.4:
Value of all (Danish and foreign) landing in the four ports, DKK 1,000, average 2011–2015. Most important
species in the port are marked in bold. Source: Danish AgriFish Agency, Dynamic landing statistics.
Table 4.5:
Landings from the UK EEZ by Danish vessels. Average 2011–2015, value DKK 1,000. Most important
species in the port are marked in bold. Source: The Danish AgriFish Agency vessel register, logbook and sales notes
register.
Table 4.6:
Relative importance of Danish landings from the UK EEZ of all (Danish and foreign) in the four ports,
% of value, average 2011–2015.
Bold:
important species – high volume and of relative importance,
italic:
low
volume, therefore not of importance for the port and community. Source: Own calculation.
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Table 4.7:
The influence of foreign landings from the North Sea and British waters (i.e., ICES areas VI, VII, IVA-C, IVN,
IVL, IVR and mussel areas in the North Sea) in tonnes and percentage of total landings in port. Source: Danish
AgriFish Agency, Dynamic landing statistics.
Table 5.1:
Thirty-five vessels with +15% of landings value in UK EEZ: total landing value, value of UK-EEZ catches and
relative UK-EEZ share of all catches, 2016. Source: The Danish AgriFish Agency vessel register, logbook and sales
notes register.
Table 5.2:
Value of landings from the UK EEZ for vessels per home port (+ de facto home port), 2016.
Source: Own calculations based on the Danish AgriFish Agency vessel register, logbook and sales notes
register.
Table 5.3:
Loss of income/turnover in sectors under scenario 1. Based on Table 5.2 and the distribution of variable
costs for ≥40 m vessels, by home port, 2016 data, million DKK. Source: Statistics Denmark FIREGN2.
Table 5.4:
Loss of jobs in sectors under scenario 1. Based on Table 5.3 and conversion factors by sectors, 2016 data.
Million DKK and number of full-time equivalent jobs. Source: Own calculations based on Statistics Denmark REGN1
and FIREGN2.
Table 5.5:
Value of UK-EEZ landings for vessels in home ports (+ de facto home port), 2016. Source: Own calculations
based on the Danish AgriFish Agency vessel register, logbook and sales notes register. Source: Statistics Denmark
FIREGN2.
Table 5.6:
Loss of income/turnover in sectors under scenario 2. Based on Table 5.5 and the distribution of variable
costs for ≥40 m vessels, by home port, 2016, million DKK.
Table 5.7:
Loss of jobs in sectors (excl. processing) under scenario 2. Based on Table 5.6 and conversion factors by
sectors, by port, 2016, million DKK and number of full-time equivalent jobs. Source: Own calculations based on
Statistics Denmark REGN1 and FIREGN2.
Table 5.8:
The calculated direct loss of income for vessels and no. of jobs lost (full-time equivalents) under scenario 1
and 2 – all at the regional level.
Table 5.9:
The calculated elements of the equation. The results have been ranked low, medium and high based on a
comparison of the four communities and the national average for the second and third element.
Table 7.1:
The calculated direct loss of income (turnover) for vessels and induced loss of turnover for service
providers, regional level
Table 7.2:
The calculated direct loss of jobs (FTEs) under scenario 1 and 2 – all at the regional level.
Table 8.1:
Landings from the UK EEZ, Danish vessels. Average 2011–2015, tonnes. Source: The Danish AgriFish
Agency vessel register, logbook and sales notes register.
Table 8.2:
Relative importance of landing volume from the UK EEZ by Danish vessels of all landings (Danish and
foreign) in the four ports, %, average 2011–2015.
Table 8.3:
The four case communities and other Danish fishing communities and data corresponding to the equation
above. Source: Harbour assessments from Danish Harbours and Danish Statistics as well as the Agency for
Agriculture.
Table 8.4:
The three elements calculated from the data in the previous table and an average of the second and third
element.
Table 8.5:
The three elements of the four communities categorised as high, medium, and low, with
the medium category covering a third of the overall range of the communities centred around the
average.
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List of figures
Figure 2.1:
Map of the North Sea countries and UNCLOS EEZ lines. Source: Own figure. Data from: Esri,
DeLorme, GEBCO, NOAA NGDC.
Figure 3.1:
Development in number of inhabitants in the four communities. Source: Statistics Denmark
Figure 3.2:
The northern region of Jutland showing the locations of the four communities. Data from Kort10, the
Agency for Data Supply and Efficiency.
Figure 3.3:
Skagen at the northern tip of Jutland. Data from Kort10, the Agency for Data Supply and Efficiency.
Figure 3.4:
Skagen town. Data from Kort10, the Agency for Data Supply and Efficiency.
Figure 3.5:
Hirtshals and the near surroundings. Data from Kort10, the Agency for Data Supply and Efficiency.
Figure 3.6:
Hirtshals town, with ferry lines. Data from Kort10, the Agency for Data Supply and Efficiency.
Figure 3.7:
Hanstholm at “the shoulder of Jutland”. Data from Kort10, the Agency for Data Supply and Efficiency.
Figure 3.8:
Hanstholm port and town. Data from Kort10, the Agency for Data Supply and Efficiency.
Figure 3.9:
Thyborøn and the near surroundings. Data from Kort10, the Agency for Data Supply and Efficiency.
Figure 3.10:
Thyborøn town. Data from Kort10, the Agency for Data Supply and Efficiency.
Figure 4.1:
Number of vessels by home port, 2007–2017 Source: LBST 2017 dynamic tables.
Figure 4.2:
Number of vessels in length groups. Sum of vessels in the four ports divided by size category, 2007-2017.
Source: LBST 2017, dynamic vessel statistics.
Figure 4.3:
The number and size of vessels in the four ports, 2017. Source: LBST 2017. Dynamic
vessel statistics.
Figure 4.4:
Number of fishermen per home port 2007-2017. Source: LBST dynamic tables 2017.
Figure 4.5:
Total vessel tonnage per home port, 2007-2017. Tonnes. Source: LBST 2017: Dynamic vessel statistics.
Figure 4.6:
Catching area for landings in the four ports. ICES fishing areas, total 2005–2016. Other waters include:
The sound (lllb), Western English Channel (Vlle), West of Ireland (Vllb) and Kattegat lllaS. Source: The Ministry for
Environment and Food, 2017. /LBST 2017, Dynamic landing statistics.
Figure 4.7:
Map of the most important fishing areas, ICES fishing areas, important fishing grounds and national EEZ
borders. Source: Own figure. Data from: Esri, DeLorme, GEBCO, NOAA NGDC and ICES.
Figure 4.8:
Landings from non-UK EU vessels fished in the UK EEZ. In weight distribution. Source:
own model based on Napier, 2016.
Figure 5.1:
The dependency equation.
Figure 8.1:
The dependency equation.
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FOREWORD
Innovative Fisheries Management (IFM), a research centre at the Department of Planning at Aalborg
University (AAU), has undertaken an analysis of economic and employment consequences of the United
Kingdom leaving the European Union (Brexit) for four major Danish ports. The work has been conducted
based on a contract with The Danish AgriFish agency, later The Fisheries Agency, The Ministry of Foreign
Affairs Denmark. The contract entered into force 1 May 2017 and ended 1 December 2017.
The work has been conducted by Associate Professor Søren Qvist Eliasen (team leader), Research Assistant
Trine Skovgaard Kirkfeldt, Assistant Professor Sara Aaen and Assistant Professor Rikke Becker Jacobsen.
Professor Jesper Raakjær has participated in the process of quality control.
1 SUMMARY
The report focuses on the economic, employment and other socio-economic consequences of the United
Kingdom leaving the European Union (hereafter referred to as Brexit) for the four ports and communities of
Thyborøn, Hanstholm, Hirtshals and Skagen. In this regard the Brexit consequences are only the effects on
the communities from the possible loss of fishing opportunities for Danish vessels within the Exclusive
Economic Zone of UK (UK EEZ). The report is made by the research group IFM at Aalborg University through
a contract with the Danish Fisheries Agency, the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The report outlines brief profiles of the four communities: their history, infrastructure, population, the port
activities and other activities related to the fisheries in the communities. Fishing activities in the ports are
described in terms of vessels registered to the port and the pattern of landings in volume, value and
geographical origin. This also includes a brief analysis of the importance of foreign landings from the UK
EEZ.
The descriptions and profiling of the communities and fisheries activities related to the ports are the basis
for assessments of potential socio-economic consequences for the four communities of two scenarios of
Brexit, both assuming the closure of the UK EEZ for non-UK vessels. For scenario 1, the quotas are retained
and fished outside the UK EEZ, whereas scenario 2 assumes that this cannot be fished, leading to a loss of
catches currently fished in the UK EEZ.
Scenario 1
assumes that Danish fishermen are losing access to the UK EEZ and retain the quota
which will be caught elsewhere. This is not likely to happen, as some of the very good fishing
grounds are within the UK EEZ. It is therefore assumed that the vessels will lose 50% of the present
catch value from the UK EEZ, based on higher cost because of a reduced catch per unit effort
(CPUE) and/or decreasing income due to reduced quality of the fish. Although particular fuel costs
might increase, as well as the fishing pattern most likely will change, these factors are kept
constant due to uncertainty on what impact to expect.
Scenario 2
assumes that all fish previously caught in the UK EEZ cannot be fished elsewhere and are
lost for the Danish vessels, and thus all current landings from Danish vessels in Danish ports from
the area are lost for the Danish processing industry.
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The short-term consequences for the communities and the region will be analysed; however, the dynamic
effects are outside the scope of this report. The analyses consist of two parts:
1) Calculations of the economic and employment consequences for the two scenarios based on a
range of assumptions about how loss in income in the fleet will spread on land. This leads to figures
on calculated economic loss and regional job losses under the two scenarios.
2) An assessment of the broader socio-economic consequences for the communities based on a
modelled dependency on UK-EEZ landings for the communities and an interview-based assessment
of local resilience of the four communities in relation to the potential effects of Brexit. This leads to
qualitative discussions of possible effects of Brexit on the four communities.
Assessment of economic and employment consequences
Thirty-five vessels obtain more than 15% of their landing value from catches in the UK EEZ. The UK-EEZ
catches, primarily herring, mackerel and species for non-human consumption, represent a landing value of
DKK 982 million. In the two scenarios, the UK-EEZ landing value for the vessels is reduced by 50% and 100%,
respectively. The calculations are based on the assumption that loss of income in the fleet will lead to the
same reduction in the variable costs: wages, fuel, landing activities and maintenance in the home ports. In
reality, the vessels operate at a regional level rather than locally. Therefore, the calculated consequences
are regional – addressed here as the area surrounding and in-between the four towns – rather than at local
level.
The loss of landings from the UK EEZ for Danish vessels in scenario 2 primarily influences five large
processors of herring, mackerel and fishmeal, and oil. A loss of jobs is seen as directly proportional to the
loss of fish resources for processing. The real consequences may be larger if the loss of raw material
influences the overall profitability of the firms or causes an economic tipping point to be crossed.
For the two scenarios, the calculated loss of income (turnover) for the vessels, which leads to a loss of
turnover for service providers (including fishermen in the communities) is at the level of DKK 491 million
and DKK 982 million, respectively.
Table 1.1:
The calculated direct loss of income (turnover) for vessels
and induced loss of turnover for service providers, regional level.
Total loss of income (turnover) in
the fishing industry and for service
providers
(million DKK)
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
491.0
982.0
The loss of turnover for the land-based industries is assessed to lead to a direct loss of jobs of 272 jobs
under scenario 1 and 844 jobs under scenario 2. This is at regional level and distributed to sectors according
to the cost pattern of the vessels.
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Table 1.2:
The calculated direct loss of jobs (full-time equivalents) under scenario 1 and 2 – all at the regional level.
Fisher-
men
(no)
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
183
366
Oil
industry
(no)
17
33
Landing,
sale, distri-
bution
(no)
14
28
Mainte-
nance
(no)
58
117
Processing
(no)
0
300
Total loss
of jobs
(no)
272
844
The induced effects of economic and employment losses are not calculated. Using the rule of thumb that 1
job at sea generates 3 on land would lead to a loss of up to 1,500 jobs in scenario 2. Based on the
catchment analysis, calculation of direct and indirect job generation of port activities would lead to up to
2,100 jobs lost in scenario 2.
Assessment of socio-economic consequences at the community level
How the four communities might respond to potential changes that could come from Brexit, such as the
loss of jobs and income presented above, was assessed through an analysis of how the four communities
depend on the landings from the UK EEZ along with an assessment of the overall resilience of the four
communities.
The first analysis indicated that the impact on the four communities will be different, as they are
dependent on landings from the UK EEZ to varying degrees. Skagen and Thyborøn are highly dependent,
and this dependency appears to be more locally anchored than in Hirtshals and Hanstholm, where the
dependency is judged to be more regional. The regional extent of the dependency of Hirtshals and
Hanstholm is both due to the location of processing facilities, which in the case of Hirtshals is located away
from Hirtshals in the municipality of Frederikshavn. Hanstholm and Hirtshals both experience relatively high
levels of inbound commuting, which increases the regional spread of the dependency on UK-EEZ landings.
While at least three of the communities are significantly dependent on UK-EEZ landings (1), it varies
whether this dependency is primarily found within the fishing industry or whether it is due to the influence
of the fishing industry relative to the overall port activities (2), or, finally, if the high dependency is due to
the significance of the port relative to the size of the community (3).
Table 1.3:
Assessment of community dependencies on UK-EEZ landings.
Communities
Skagen
Hirtshals
Hanstholm
Thyborøn
(1) Fisheries dependency
on UK-EEZ landings
medium
high
low
medium
(2) Port dependency on
fisheries
high
low/medium
high
medium/high
(3) Community
dependency on the port
medium
high
high
high
How the impacts of Brexit can affect the four communities also depends on the conditions for resilience.
The assessment of community resilience was based on interviews with actors in the fishery sector (ports,
fishermen organisations, service providers, processors) as well as inhabitants and local historians. This
assessment showed a more similar picture for the four communities. For all four communities, it was found
that certain factors increase the communities’ resilience. These include the fact that actors within the
fishing industry are used to facing large structural changes, while their source of income sometimes
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fluctuates highly both because of the mobile and changeable nature of fish stocks but also because of
institutional changes such as the annual changes in quotas and introduction of new quota systems and
regulations. In addition, the industry on land has in many cases built a diversified catalogue of customers
and services/products. This makes them less dependent on the Danish landings from the UK EEZ and
increases the resilience.
These positive resilience factors are connected to the fishing industry, but when shifting the focus to the
rest of the communities, other factors decrease the overall resilience. The most significant of such factors is
the decreasing numbers of inhabitants, which is noteworthy for all four communities and especially in
Skagen. Also, the resilience was assessed based on the level of potential alternative employment
opportunities for inhabitants who may become unemployed because of Brexit. While all four communities
have relatively small populations, the extent of alternative employment opportunities is limited. To some
extent, tourism activities could offer alternative jobs in Skagen, where the tourism industry is growing;
however, these jobs would be far from sufficient.
The two assessments indicate that a possible recession for the fishing industry following Brexit will
influence the four communities in different ways. Based on the presented assessments, potential effects of
Brexit are expected to be locally severe in Skagen and Thyborøn, while the effects connected to the fishing
industry in Hirtshals and Hanstholm should be expected to be more geographically dispersed. For all the
communities, there are concerns that a recession within the fishing industry could influence the financial
state of the four municipalities. Cultural consequences could be expected if the financial support to local
festivals from the fishing industry is missing in the future. This could further weaken the connection to the
historical background as fishing communities for the four towns.
Trends and future changes
The interviews revealed other elements that could have a significant influence on the overall consequences
of Brexit. These include potential trends and effects that are difficult to forecast the outcome of; however,
they should be considered in the overall assessment of potential consequences of Brexit. These include:
Displacement effect:
Some interviewees predict that Danish vessels excluded from the UK EEZ will
move their activities into the Danish EEZ, leading to a displacement of activities. The increased
fishing pressure on the non-UK-EEZ fishing grounds could reduce the catch per unit effort (CPUE)
for the minor vessels fishing there at present. These would then tend to seek alternative fishing
grounds in order to keep their CPUE at a higher level. The effects of scenario 1 could therefore
spread to other vessel groups than the vessels currently active within the UK EEZ.
Breaking a trend in the demersal fisheries:
Interviews revealed that there is a recent increasing
tendency for larger and more modern demersal vessels to fish in the UK EEZ. A closing of the UK
EEZ will therefore influence such development and can be seen as a missed opportunity. It is not
possible to estimate the value for the Danish fishing industry if Brexit were not to occur, but the
likely potentials should not be neglected. However, it can be considered more as a shadow cost.
Counteracting capabilities within the Danish processing industry:
Under scenario 2, the processing
industry will lose raw material from Danish vessels. The pelagic processing sector is dynamic and
has previously proven able to attract landings from vessels from other countries, which would
compensate for the losses, and thus the impact on the processing sector may be marginal in the
short term.
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2 INTRODUCTION
On 29 March 2017, the government of the United Kingdom (UK) officially announced that it would leave
the European Union (EU) as a consequence of the referendum vote in June 2016. This process of the UK
leaving the EU is referred to as “Brexit”. According to the Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, the
process has to be concluded within two years, i.e. by 29 March 2019.
Fishery is expected to be an important part of the negotiations between the UK and the EU, where in
addition to the general economic importance it is of importance at the local and regional level for
livelihoods and jobs in coastal regions, which often have limited alternative employment opportunities.
As an input for negotiations, the Danish ministry wanted to shed light on possible consequences for ports,
local communities and processing industries influenced by Brexit due to changed fishing opportunities for
Danish vessels. The report therefore presents an assessment of economic and employment consequences
of two scenarios for the outcome of Brexit negotiations on the fisheries at the local level (Thyborøn,
Hanstholm, Hirtshals and Skagen communities) and at the regional level.
Figure 2.1:
Map of the North Sea countries and UNCLOS EEZ lines. Source: Own figure. Data from: Esri, DeLorme,
GEBCO, NOAA NGDC.
Fishery is an important industry for the Danish economy, with total annual direct landings of 900,000
tonnes with a first-hand value of more than EUR 550 million (2016). More than half of the landings come
from the North Sea alone. The four ports are not only of importance in the national economy but are also
significant in the European fishing industry. The port of Skagen is among the largest ports in Northern
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Europe in terms of landings of pelagic fish, and Hanstholm is one of the leading fishing ports in Northern
Europe in terms of fish for direct consumption. Together with Thyborøn and Hirtshals, these ports are the
largest fishing ports in Denmark.
With an exit from the EU, the UK will also withdraw from the EU territorial water. Access to UK waters is
then regulated by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). This leads to an
exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of 200 nautical miles from the coast or to the midline between the UK and
the EU. The vast areas of sea around the UK will therefore no longer be freely accessible for Danish vessels
as EU waters but could only be used for fishing depending on bilateral UK-EU negotiations.
Fishing rights are allocated to member states within the EU according to allocation keys of fixed
percentages of the total allowable catches (TAC) for each stock to the member states, the so-called relative
stability. The relative stability was established as an agreement between the member states in 1983, and
since then it has included new member states. Therefore, there is no default structure for an exit, and a
possible new key for allocation between UK and the EU member states is up for negotiation in the Brexit
process.
Based on this, in March 2017, the Danish ministry formulated two scenarios for an outcome of the
negotiations. Both scenarios are based on the assumption that the UK EEZ is closed for Danish vessels.
In scenario 1,
the quotas according to the relative stability is maintained for the Danish vessels, but
must (and will) be fished outside the UK EEZ. It is assumed that the vessels are able to fish and land the
normal volume. The landings and thereby resources for the processing industry are therefore not
changed in this scenario.
In scenario 2,
the catches so far fished in the UK EEZ cannot be fished elsewhere and are lost for the
vessels and the landings in Denmark are reduced by 100% of what has so far been caught by Danish
vessels in the UK EEZ. This is seen as a loss of raw materials for the processing industry.
Regional consequences
Of the total landings in Denmark in 2016, 90% were landed in the regions of Mid- and North Jutland. The
importance of the fisheries is therefore higher in this region than at the national level. At the local level,
fishery activities based on direct landings and import generates income and jobs in the fishing ports, in fish
processing and all the services around the fisheries.
An analysis of the catches in the UK-EEZ zone and landings from Danish vessels of fish caught in the UK EEZ
(presented in section 4) show that the landings from the UK EEZ are primarily species for non-human
consumption along with herring and mackerel. These are almost exclusively landed in four large fishing
ports on the west coast of Jutland.
The focus in this report is therefore the possible consequences of the two scenarios for the four
communities of Thyborøn, Hanstholm, Hirtshals and Skagen.
The consequences are assessed in economic and employment terms based on simple modelling. This is
supplemented by an assessment of the dependency of the four communities on Danish landings from the
UK EEZ and the resilience of the four communities.
Data, information and definitions
The analysis is based on different types of data sources.
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For the assessment of the landings from the UK EEZ, second-hand data from IFRO (in relation to
calculations for the report by Andersen et al. (2017)) and the ministry was used, as IFM/AAU does not have
access to the databases of the Danish AgriFish Agency at this level of detail.
Supplementing data on landings in ports, composition of vessel sizes etc. are public available data extracted
from the Dynamic landing statistics at the homepage of The Danish AgriFish Agency is used. Statistics of
employment, salaries, etc. are based on data from Statistics Denmark (see Appendix 8.2).
Finally, the qualitative assessment is based on a range of interviews with representatives from national and
regional organisations in the fishing industry, local companies and central observers in the local
communities (see Appendix 2). The interviews were conducted in August–October 2017, the majority being
face-to-face meetings supplemented with telephone interviews.
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3 PRESENTATIONS OF THE FOUR COMMUNITIES
The origin and initial development of the four
communities have been somewhat similar, but the
development they have taken during the last century
has varied and has emphasised their unique identities.
The four communities all have similar historical
backgrounds, having originated on the basis of fishing
activities and having undergone significant growth
when harbours were constructed. Since then, the four
communities have created unique profiles that set
them apart from the other fishing communities. These
developments were based on different strategies of the
communities and the ports.
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
One challenge that the four communities have in
2000
common is declining populations (see Figure 3.1). While
1000
Thyborøn and Hanstholm, with the smallest numbers of
0
1976
1986
1996
2006
2016
inhabitants, only experienced slight decreases during
the last decades, Skagen has seen a more serious
Thyborøn
Hanstholm
decline. Although the rate of decline is different, they
Hirtshals
Skagen
are all experiencing a net loss of inhabitants, especially
Figure 3.1:
Development in number of inhabitants
during the last two decades. The four communities have all
in the four communities, 1976-2016. Source:
been exposed to the industrial and technological
Statistics Denmark
development and globalisation, which first reduced the
demand on manual labour at processing factories. Manual labour was in many cases moved to other
countries with lower minimum wages. This decrease in the need for manual labour resulted in a change
where people to an increasing extent sought longer educations and non-manual jobs. Where it was
previously natural for children and young adults to find work in the fishing industry or within other port
activities, they now move to larger cities when they take their educations, and many never move back.
Although the meteorological conditions of the west coast have repeatedly caused great problems and loss
of lives and vessels during the development of the communities, this position at the northwesternmost
point of Denmark has proven advantageous in being positioned between the North Sea to the west and
Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic sea to the east.
The four communities are situated in the northern part of Jutland, with Thyborøn located south of the
Thyborøn channel, Hanstholm located further north, at what is called the “shoulder” of Jutland, followed by
Hirtshals further north, and Skagen at the most northern point (see Figure 3.2).
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Figure 3.2:
The northern region of Jutland showing the locations of the four communities. Data from Kort10, the Agency for Data
Supply and Efficiency.
1
In administrative terms, Skagen, Hirtshals and Hanstholm are situated within the North Denmark Region,
which is the northern part of Jutland, while Thyborøn is located just south of this, in the northern part of
the Central Denmark Region. The communities are located in four different municipalities, Lemvig in the
Central Denmark Region and Thisted, Hjørring and Frederikshavn municipalities in the North Denmark
Region. The municipalities have other, larger communities (generally inland communities) as centres for the
municipality. The port communities make up 5–13% of the total population in the municipalities.
Table 3.1:
Population in the communities and their municipalities, 2017. Source: Statistics Denmark, BY1.
Community
Thyborøn
Hanstholm
Hirtshals
Skagen
Population
2
,
069
2
,
154
5
,
880
8
,
088
Municipality
Lemvig
Thisted
Hjørring
Frederikshavn
Population (1st qtr. 2017)
20
,
291
43
,
826
65
,
307
60
,
356
No data is available on unemployment at the community level. The labour market is generally regional
rather than local. The average commuting distance in the North Denmark Region is 23 km each way (2014)
(Thisted kommune, 2016).
1
All maps in this section are made from the same data as this.
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Table 3.2:
Unemployment as a percentage of the labour force in the municipalities of the four
communities, per January. Source: Statistics Denmark, AUP02, month 1.
Municipality (town)
Lemvig (Thyborøn)
Thisted (Hanstholm)
Hjørring (Hirtshals)
Frederikshavn (Skagen)
Denmark
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
5.2
5.1
5.2
4.4
3.1
3.2
3.8
6.6
6.4
5.7
5.7
4.9
4.9
3.9
7.8
7.6
7.2
6.2
5.5
5.3
5.1
8.1
7.7
7.1
6.3
6.1
5.7
5.6
6.3
6.0
6.3
5.7
5.0
4.4
4.3
The general unemployment rate has been decreasing in recent years, both in Denmark as a whole and in
the municipalities of the four communities. Unemployment levels in the two southern communities,
Thyborøn and Hanstholm, is below the national average of 4.5%, while it is above average in Hirtshals and
Skagen. Meanwhile, Skagen has a negative commuting rate (more commuting out of the community than
into the community), while Hirtshals and Hanstholm have a positive commuting rate (a higher number of
persons commuting into the community, than out) (2013 data) (Thisted kommune, 2016).
3.1 Skagen
Skagen was established as a commercial fishing community in the beginning of the 15th century, with a
significant trade nationally and internationally. In spite of the commercial success, the community was
strongly challenged in subsequent centuries due to environmental pressures such as storms and sand drift,
which hampered both agricultural and fishing activities. The negative development was further
accentuated by the fact that Skagen was not connected to the rest of Denmark through any on-land
infrastructure. In the 1870s, Skagen began attracting artists from across the country, and this led to an
emerging tourism industry. The historical background in fishing was also captured by the painters in
paintings that are now national treasures, and thus they have created a permanent link between Skagen
and fishery. It was shortly after this influx of artists that Skagen was connected to the rest of Vendsyssel by
road and railway (Den digitale byport, 2012).
Figure 3.3:
Skagen at the northern tip of Jutland. Data from Kort10, the
Agency for Data Supply and Efficiency.
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In the late 19th century, Skagen held the largest fishing fleet in the country, employing over half of the
inhabitants. However, it was not until the beginning of the 20th century, in 1907, that Skagen harbour was
built. Until then, the fleet was pulled onshore and stayed on the sand. The harbour underwent continuous
expansion and the population of Skagen increased significantly during the century. The tourism industry
started competing with the fishing industry in being the most important industry of Skagen.
For the community of Skagen today, annual variations in landings usually spread out and affect various
parts of society both in good and bad years. One example for this is how a good season of sand eels can
affect the entire community, since not only the fishing industry is affected but also associated industries
and companies such as the local newspaper due to an increase in income from advertisements.
Infrastructure
Skagen is still connected to the rest of Denmark by railway, a local rail line to Frederikshavn that connects
to the rest of the national and international rail system. The road from Skagen is 44 km from the nearest
motorway. The previous ferry connections from Skagen have been moved to other ports (Frederikshavn or
Hirtshals).
Population
The population of Skagen stagnated in 1970 and has steadily decreased by 31% since 1976 (Den digitale
byport, 2012; Statistics Denmark, BY1). Today, Skagen has 8,088 permanent residents and approximately 2
million annual visitors (Statistics Denmark, BY1; Toppen af Danmark, n.d.).
While Skagen is already an established tourist destination for national and international tourists, there is
still considered to be a large potential for the community to develop the tourism industry further. Based on
this, Skagen was chosen by the organisation Danish Coastal and Nature Tourism for their new tourism
development project (Frederikshavn Kommune, 2017).
Figure 3.4:
Skagen town. Data from Kort10, the Agency for Data Supply and Efficiency.
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The port
The port of Skagen is the largest fishing port in Denmark and the largest pelagic port in Europe. Inland,
processing industries have generally concentrated and consolidated over the last decade. Today, two of the
largest pelagic industries in Denmark are located in the port of Skagen: the production of fishmeal and oil
and the largest herring processor. These attract Danish as well as foreign landings. In 2015, foreign landings
made up 63% of the volume and 52% of the value of the total landings in the port (Skagen Havn, 2016b;
Skagen Havn, n.d.). The geographical position of Skagen has led to the port experiencing an increasing
demand for services for fishing as well as non-fishing vessels. With an increasing demand from the
international maritime fleet that travels between the Atlantic Ocean, North Sea and the Baltic, this
continues to bring opportunities for transit and bunkering. The port of Skagen thus also provides services
for the visiting vessels, many organised in “Service Team Skagen”, which consists of 43 companies. This
covers the servicing and repair of vessels (the regionally largest shipyard, net makers, ice, oil, packaging
solutions etc.), fish auction, transportation and processing as well as financial and educational institutions.
These companies supply the local as well as the foreign fishing industry.
The goal of the port is to become the leading fishing port in Europe in terms of landed amount in 2020 and
in the top three in terms of landed value in 2030. This will be achieved through, among other means, the
third step of a large expansion plan, where the on-land capacity will be increased along with the
development of a new quay, which is expected to be finished in 2019. The focus is also based on the
continued improvement of the reception of cruise ships (Skagen Havn, 2016c).
The fishery of Skagen has been an integrated element of Skagen throughout its development, and it
continues to have a significant role in the community today. The harbour and fish auction house is a central
area where many activities take place on a daily basis, such as the fish auction in the morning, which is
open to visitors, and annually for festivals. The visitors consist of tourists living in the community or in
summer cottages in the surrounding area, as well as an increasing number of cruise ship tourists. In 2015, a
new cruise ship terminal was established with space for up to 330 m long cruise ships. Since then, the
number of cruise ship visitors has drastically increased from 11,000 in 2016 to 39,239 expected in 2017 and
59,000 so far reported for 2018 (Skagen Havn, 2016a).
A catchment analysis of the importance of the port of Skagen based on 2013 data states that port activities
in Skagen (all activities in companies dependent on the port – located in the port area or dependent on
port activities) generate 1,588 jobs (full-time equivalents) directly and 619 jobs for suppliers to the first
companies. The companies are assessed to have a turnover of DKK 3.9 billion. The employment effects
directly and indirectly are assessed to be 10% of the jobs in Frederikshavn municipality, not taking the
induced job and economy into consideration (Skagen Havn, 2015).
Other activities
Many activities in Skagen are related to the tourism industry. There are several museums dedicated to the
work and life of the painters of Skagen, and tourists are also attracted to the natural phenomena of the top
of Denmark, the wandering sand dune of Raabjerg Mile and the silted church. The community also has a
Coastal Museum of Skagen, a museum of natural history, Skagen Nature Centre and a Centre of Migratory
Birds, since the area around Skagen has a rich bird life.
The community also has an annual festival for the celebration of folk music. Skagen music festival is the
oldest music festival in Denmark, and was first held in 1971. Today, this festival attracts tourists and
inhabitants to the harbour area and is achieved through the work of approximately 650 volunteers. The
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festival originally took place in the old fish auction hall. Today, this site is occupied by the Cultural and
Recreational Centre of Skagen.
3.2 Hirtshals
The first mentioning of Hirtshals in historic papers is from 1532. It was however not until centuries later,
with the establishment of the harbour, that the community took shape and started to develop (Hirtshals
Havn, 2016; Nordsøen Forskerpark, 2017).
Figure 3.5:
Hirtshals and the near surroundings. Data from Kort10, the Agency for Data Supply and Efficiency.
The establishment of a harbour in Hirtshals was already discussed in the beginning of the 19th century. At
that time, the argument for the construction was to ease the transport of goods between Norway to
Denmark, which back then were transported via Sweden. However, it took another century before the
financial conditions were in order. Piers were then built with the purpose to protect the local fishing fleet,
and the harbour was officially operating in 1929. Immediately after its opening, one third of the landings
came with foreign fishing vessels, and with a growing demand the harbour was expanded with additional
piers and quays. In 1935, the first ferry connection to Norway was established, first to Arendal and later to
Kristiansand, whereto it is still operating, in addition to routes opened later (to Larvik, Stavanger and
Bergen). In the mid 20th century, the fishing activities had grown with several expansions and the
establishment of a new and larger fish auction house. The development continued over the next decades
with additional expansions. In the 1990s, fishing activities related to the processing industry experienced a
decline, and the five fishmeal factories were demolished in order to make room for the growing ferry
traffic. The 2000s led to new developments, some in order to maintain the pelagic fishery and others in
favour of the ferry traffic (Hirtshals Havn, 2017).
Infrastructure
In 2015, a railway terminal and a direct connection from the harbour to the E39 motorway were
established. The E39 connects to the motorway only 5 km from the port of Hirtshals, which provides a
direct link south to the rest of Denmark and Europe.
As mentioned, the port of Hirtshals today is a hub for three ferry companies transporting goods and
passengers to several locations in Norway, as well as the Faroe Islands and Iceland. The close motorway
connection also contributes to making Hirtshals attractive as the hub to Denmark and Europe for guests
from the northern parts of Europe.
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Population
The number of permanent residents stagnated in 1996 with 7,009, which was then followed by a 16%
decline leading to the 5,880 permanent residents today (Statistics Denmark, BY1). In addition to the
permanent residents, approximately 3,300 people come to Hirtshals each day to work from outside of
Hirtshals, many of whom are working in the fishing industry or in related industries. Hirtshals is visited by
many tourists each year for the larger attractions of the North Sea Oceanarium and the North Sea Science
Park. Many tourists stay in summerhouses close to Hirtshals. Visitors from Norway also play an economic
role in Hirtshals, for example as commercial tourists who come to Hirtshals from Norway only to do grocery
shopping and return to Norway the same day (Steffensen, 2017).
The port
The port of Hirtshals was established for fisheries as well as for transportation, as described above. This is
still the profile of the port, where the ferries have taken over as the most important activity in the economy
of the port, as the fisheries only provide 10% of the turnover for the port company. The full importance of
fish and fisheries is however considerably larger than this would indicate. Large landings of mackerel and
herring are mainly transported inland for processing, while a number of minor processors process demersal
species and fish landed by container ships. The fisheries have generated a range of service providers for
fisheries as well as other vessels such as cargo ships, naval vessels, ferries and supply vessels for the oil
sector. These include service as well as repairs and remodelling – a yard, ship electronics, blacksmiths,
painting and ship carpenters etc. Since 2011, Hirtshals has also managed to attract maintenance of off-
shore oil rigs.
A catchment analysis of the importance of the port of Hirtshals based on 2013 and 2016 data assesses that
activities in the port directly generate 2,245 jobs (full-time equivalents) in the municipality of Hjørring,
equal to 8% of the total employment in the municipality. The companies are assessed to produce value
added of DKK 1.5 billion in port companies. This does not include the indirect effects (Center for Regional-
og Turismeforskning and SDU, 2017a).
Figure 3.6:
Hirtshals town, with ferry lines. Data from Kort10, the Agency for Data Supply and Efficiency.
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During the last two years, the port has made its so far largest investment in a 250,000 m
2
on-land
development. Today, the port has a large capacity in the processing and handling of fish, which, along with
its geographical position and infrastructure linkages to the rest of Denmark and Northern Europe, makes it
a significant actor in the Danish fishing industry (Steffensen, 2017).
Other activities
The industry of Hirtshals is first and foremost related to the port and primarily to the fishing industry. Other
activities in Hirtshals take place at the North Sea Science Park and North Sea Oceanarium, which attract and
employ scientists related to fishery research as well as tourists, both Danish and international (Nordsøen
Forskerpark, 2017). The two centres attract 270,000 visitors a year and are well connected to the
community through activities of research and knowledge sharing. Scientists from the science park
cooperate with the fishing industry in the research of fishing methods, development of tools and fishing
methods. Also, if the fishermen of Hirtshals catch a rare fish, it is likely to end up living in the large
aquarium at the Oceanarium. The activities of the two centres are therefore also dependant on the survival
of the fishing industry in Hirtshals.
The fishing industry plays an important role in the life of the social associations in Hirtshals. They also
provide, together with the other companies in Hirtshals, an essential financial support to the annual
festivals. The fishery of Hirtshals is celebrated each year during the local Fish Festival, where around 250
volunteers from the community work together to create activities for participants with the support from
over 50 sponsors also related to Hirtshals (Hirtshals Fiskefestival, 2017). The festival spans from Thursday to
Saturday and includes different activities and themes of the day, such as a day for children and their
knowledge about fish. Many tastings are offered for both children and adults, and it is possible to visit
various activities and actors of the port. For instance, visitors can see the box terminal, where boxes are
handled and cleaned. It is also possible to meet net makers and see their work and go to the fish auction
and learn about how fish are bought and sold and who the involved actors are. All this is a way for Hirtshals
to not only celebrate the fishery of Hirtshals and to have a community festival, it is also a way to brand
Hirtshals and to brand fresh fish so that visitors learn to appreciate fresh fish and to remember Hirtshals
when they buy fish in the future.
3.3 Hanstholm
Before the 20th century, the community of Hanstholm was made up of only a small settlement of fishing
families.
When the construction of the port was initiated in the beginning of the 20th century and finalised in 1967,
Hanstholm started to grow and became a community strongly connected to the port. The construction of
the port was delayed significantly due to the Second World War, in which Hanstholm was used as a fortress
by the Germans (Thy Turistforening, n.d.). The delay made the port of Hanstholm the youngest port in the
country (Port of Hanstholm, 2017).
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Figure 3.7:
Hanstholm at “the shoulder of Jutland”. Data from Kort10, the Agency for Data Supply and
Efficiency.
Infrastructure
On the landside, Hanstholm is connected by highway route 26, which is the main entrance for fish export or
travellers for Hanstholm. The highway ends in Herning, 133 km from Hanstholm. A motorway under
construction will end in Holstebro, 100 km from Hanstholm. There is no railway connection to Hanstholm.
In the 1980s, the port of Hanstholm became a destination for ferries and had several established ferry
routes. However, the ferry activities came to an end in 2010, when large parts of the activities moved to
Hirtshals (Port of Hanstholm, 2017).
Population
Over the last seven years, Hanstholm has experienced a 10% decline in population to its current level of
2,154 residents. This further emphasises the importance of the port to the local community, taking into
account that a catchment analysis estimates that the number of jobs that are connected to the port is
estimated to be approximately 1,600 (Statistics Denmark, BY1).
The harbour
In 1977, ten years after the opening, the harbour was expanded with a new basin followed by the
construction of yet another basin in 1987. In the 1980s, Hanstholm harbour also became a destination for
ferries with several established ferry routes. The ferry activities however came to an end in 2010 (Port of
Hanstholm 2017).
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Figure 3.8:
Hanstholm port and town. Data from Kort10, the Agency for Data Supply and
Efficiency.
Hanstholm harbour is the largest fishing harbour in Denmark in terms of landings of fish for direct
consumption and therefore plays an important role in the Danish fishing industry. In 2013, the harbour
sought to expand further and formed an ambitious plan that would enhance the activities within fishing,
freight, offshore and sustainable energy. The plan was however dropped at the last second because the
costs turned out to be higher than firstly calculated. Since 2013, the harbour has sharpened its focus and is
now primarily focused on how to improve the conditions for the fishing industry, which is responsible for
75% of the harbour’s income. The new focus is evident in the newest expansion plan of the harbour, which
among others is focused on making the entrance to the harbour wider and on increasing the depth, thereby
accommodating larger fishing vessels. The plan has received support from the municipality, and the
expansion is thus expected to be initiated in 2018 and finalised in 2020/2021 (Andersen, 2017). The
expansion of the port is expected to increase the number of jobs, especially in the fishery related
industries, which increased the importance of fisheries for the community. This has given rise to new ideas
about how to revitalise Hanstholm and lead the community towards a future with growth and
developments.
A catchment analysis of the importance of the port of Hanstholm was made in 2007 based on 2006 data.
The 2006 assessment pointed to 1,700 jobs (direct and indirect) from the port and a production value of
DKK 1.6 billion. Today, the number of employees is 1,600 (Hanstholm Havn, 2007; Port of Hanstholm,
2017). The high number of jobs in the port and port-related industries indicates a high level of inwards
commuting to Hanstholm when compared to the number of inhabitants (of approx. 2,100). It also
emphasises the role of the port for the community of Hanstholm. The port celebrated its 50th anniversary
in 2017 with a big event, with different activities, visits from politicians and a joint dining event in the
evening.
The port includes a processing plant for fishmeal and fish oil and a large number of fish processors and
traders of demersal fish. The fisheries and landings in the port are supported by a range of service
companies within refrigeration, smith services, hotel accommodation, unloading and loading, oil and fuel,
net making, ship supplies, floating dock, etc. (Port of Hanstholm, 2017).
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Other activities
The port of Hanstholm is primarily occupied with fishing-related activities. Still, other sea-related activities
are based in or nearby the port.
The focus on sustainable energy can be seen in a centre for Danish wave energy in Hanstholm. Futhermore,
the port is also used as landing place for parts for the national test centre for large wind turbines, which is
located in Østerild, just 20 km from Hanstholm.
Finally, Hanstholm has developed a tourist industry related to coastal summerhouses and the natural
reserve of Thy National Park, including Cold Hawaii in Klitmøller, 12 km from Hanstholm, which has become
a national hotspot for windsurfing.
3.4 Thyborøn
The first written record of Thyborøn is from 1531 where it was used as a name for the area. In 1862, the
isthmus on which Thyborøn was situated was breached in a storm surge, which separated Thyborøn from
the area of Thy. From 1875, the new opening of the isthmus was artificially kept open through coastal
protection. The established connection between sea and fjord then opened up new opportunities for trade
and transportation. Around this time, Thyborøn consisted of nine houses but started to grow some decades
later with the construction of the harbour (Kulturstyrelsen, 2009).
Figure 3.9:
Thyborøn and the near surroundings. Data from Kort10, the Agency for Data
Supply and Efficiency.
Infrastructure
In spite of the remote location of Thyborøn, the community is connected by rail and road to the south and
by ferry to Agger, north of the fjord. The railway between Vemb and Lemvig was extended to Thyborøn in
1899 and has since then been used for passenger and goods transportation (Meesenburg, 2017).
Thyborøn is connected by route 181, the southbound highway. After 90 km, the road connects to the
motorway in Herning. From 2018, a motorway will reach Holstebro, which is 55 km from Thyborøn.
Population
The above-mentioned infrastructures connect the 2,069 residents of Thyborøn with the rest of Denmark.
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During the last three decades, the population of Thyborøn has shown a steady decline of 27%, from a
population of 2,851 in 1989 (Statistics Denmark, 2017, BY2).
Figure 3.10:
Thyborøn town. Data from Kort10, the Agency for Data Supply and
Efficiency.
The harbour
The harbour was established in 1915–1918 and was further expanded with a southern inner harbour and a
western inner harbour in 1929 and in the 1940s, respectively. The latter was expanded further with two
quays for industry and repairs in the 1960s, and in the 1970s the southern harbour was expanded with a
harbour for fish processing (Meesenburg, 2017). Plans for future developments are mainly focused on
improving the capacity and depth of the harbour in order to accommodate larger vessels (Thyborøn Havn,
2017).
At present, the port holds the second largest fishmeal and fish oil processing company in Denmark as well
as other companies within fish processing and export. There is a range of service companies supplying
support for landing (landing, ice, bunkering, etc.), as well as net makers and repair and maintenance, e.g.
shipyards, electronics, carpenter, etc.
A catchment analysis of the importance of the port of Thyborøn based on 2013 and 2016 data estimates
that activities of the port generate 1,039 jobs (full-time equivalents) in the municipality of Lemvig, equal to
10% of total employment in the municipality. The companies are assessed to produce value added of DKK
848 million in the port companies. This does not include the indirect effects (Center for Regional- og
Turismeforskning and SDU, 2017b).
Other activities
Besides jobs related to the harbour, the chemical factory of Cheminova/FMC is one of the larger employers
in the area.
Several steps have been taken during the last two years in order to develop the tourism industry in
Thyborøn (Thyborøn Guiden, 2017). Today, tourists can visit the Coastal Centre (Kystcentret), the Aquarium
of Jutland (Jyllandsakvariet) and the Sea War Museum Jutland along with other museums and exhibitions
(Meesenburg, 2017).
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In addition, the importance of the fishery to the local community is celebrated each year through the
annual Fish Days, the first weekend in August, with activities related to the fishery and the port (Thyborøn
Guiden, 2017). At this festival, the fishery is celebrated, large tents are raised on the harbour and the
inhabitants come together in a joint dinner event. At one point, this festival attracted approximately 10,000
people. This festival is Thyborøn’s community festival, since the inhabitants and local companies all
cooperate in making the festival an attraction for tourists as well as a local celebration that brings people
together. This is also why young people raised in Thyborøn return to the community for this festival like
they do on national holidays.
Also, Thyborøn is part of the “Day of the Fish” initiative, which is an annual event where representatives go
to the capital, Copenhagen, to ensure that inhabitants of the capital and politicians remember the fishing
industry and related communities.
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4 THE FISHING INDUSTRY IN THE FOUR COMMUNITIES
The fishing industry in Denmark includes all full-time
fishing vessels, vessel owners and fishermen, and the on-
land facilities of port services, maintenance, processing
facilities and sales services.
The on-land fish processing industries depend in a
variating degree on landings from the UK EEZ, while the
service industries partly service vessels fishing in the UK
EEZ. Currently, approximately 35 vessels have a
minimum of 15% of their landed value coming from the
UK EEZ. In total, these 35 vessels catch 98% of all Danish
landings from the UK EEZ. Almost all these vessels are
registered in Skagen, Hirtshals, Hanstholm and Thyborøn,
as will be expanded in section 5.
The following sections therefore present the fleet
registered in the four ports and the landings in the port.
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Hanstholm
Skagen
Hirtshals
Thyborøn
Figure 4.1:
Number of vessels by home port,
2007–2017 Source: LBST 2017 dynamic tables.
4.1 The fleets
In 2016, 337 vessels were registered as full-time occupational fishing vessels in the four ports in total. This
is 25% less than a decade ago. The fleet has undergone a structural change towards concentration of the
fishing activities at a reduced number of vessels. In the same process, the fishermen has invested in new
and larger vessels. This has been reinforced by the implementation of transferable quotas in 2007.
For the individual ports, Hanstholm has seen the largest decrease in the number of vessels registered in the
port (i.e., home port). As can be seen from Figure 4.1, Hanstholm and Hirtshals have experienced a steady
decrease in the number of vessels, while Skagen and Thyborøn have maintained their numbers with a slight
increase. Today, Thyborøn holds the largest number of vessels.
The fleets have changed significantly over time, from having been fleets of primarily smaller, wooden boats
to today, where the picture is more nuanced. Development in technology and vessel construction and
growing financial resources made it possible to build larger vessels with an increasing level of comfort to
offer the fishermen on-board. The fleets today are therefore a mix of smaller boats, medium-sized vessels
and larger vessels that can travel far and for many days in order to get the right catch.
Figure 4.2 shows the development of the number of vessels according to length distribution for the vessels
at the four ports over the last decade. The size groups of 10–20 m and 30–39.9 m has seen a decrease,
which has led to the overall decrease in the number of vessels. However, the largest size group, ≥40 m, has
seen a slight increase, and it is predominantly this category that get their landings from the UK EEZ.
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500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
>40m
30-40m
20-30m
10-20m
0-10m
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Figure 4.2:
Number of vessels in length groups. Sum of
vessels in the four ports divided by size category, 2007-
2017. Source: LBST 2017, dynamic vessel statistics.
When looking at the length of vessels in the ports, it is evident that Thyborøn holds the highest number of
the largest and smallest categories of vessels. While almost no vessels of the largest category are registered
to Hanstholm, Hanstholm holds the largest number of vessels in the 20–30 m category.
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
>40m
30-40m
20-30m
10-20m
0-10m
Hanstholm
Hirtshals
Skagen
2017
Thyborøn
Figure 4.3:
The number and size of vessels in the four ports, 2017. Source: LBST 2017.
Dynamic vessel statistics.
The number of employees on fishing vessels has decreased by approximately 25% during the last decade,
corresponding to the 25% in the overall number of vessels. The development at the harbour level can be
seen in Figure 4.4. Hirtshals and Hanstholm have seen the largest decrease in the number of fishermen,
while the number has increased in Skagen and slightly decreased in Thyborøn.
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300
250
200
Hanstholm
150
Hirtshals
Skagen
100
Thyborøn
50
0
Figure 4.4:
Number of fishermen per home port 2007-2017. Source: LBST dynamic
tables 2017.
The size and capacity of vessels can also be seen by the tonnage of the fleet. The
tonnage of the fleets has seen an overall increase of 10%, going from 107 tonnes
per vessel in 2007 to 138 tonnes in 2017. Hanstholm is the only community that has
experienced a decrease in the number of vessels, fishermen on vessels and the
tonnage of the fleet.
16.000
14.000
12.000
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Figure 4.5:
Total vessel tonnage per home port, 2007-2017. Tonnes. Source: LBST 2017: Dynamic vessel statistics.
Hanstholm
Hirtshals
Skagen
Thyborøn
The potential consequences of Brexit are most likely to affect the largest vessel group, because these
vessels are designed for longer trips, e.g. to the UK EEZ. If one vessel group is affected, it would however
most likely affect the other categories as well because of the dynamic and interlinked nature of the fishing
industry. This is discussed further in section 6. Even the smallest vessels might therefore feel the effects of
Brexit.
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4.2 Landings
While Thyborøn holds the largest fleet, this does not correspond to the distribution of landings. To some
degree, the fleet is decoupled from their home port in terms of service and processing in land, because the
vessels generally land where they obtain the highest fish price (or result) and especially for direct landings
of pelagic species, in the port of the buyer. However, the profit depends on prices, as well as costs related
to landings such as the distance to port, landing charges, etc. Finally, port facilities such as supply of
services and resources, depth of basin, etc. can influence the decision of where to land. Following this, the
processing industry depends on landings from local vessels, as well as vessels registered in other Danish or
non-Danish ports. The following sections therefore present the geographical origin of landings as well as
the volume and value of landings (both total and Danish from the UK EEZ) in the four ports. Finally, the
influence of non-Danish landings from the UK EEZ is considered.
4.2.1 The geographical origin
The most important species for the Danish fishing industry are primarily caught in the North Sea. Here,
there are important fishing grounds, where some species are geographically concentrated. One example is
the Dogger Bank, which is a shallow area approximately 100 km east of the UK stretching approximately
260 km to the east with an area of 17,600 km
2
. This location is particularly important for sand eel, cod and
herring along with other fish species. The high concentration of fish in this area can be explained by a high
primary production (Encyclopaedia Britannica, 2017).
Geographical origin of landings in the four ports
2005-2016
Central North Sea (IVb) (exl. Sprat Square)
Central North Sea (Ivb) (Sprat square)
Baltic Sea (llld)
Skagerrak Sea (lllaN)
Northern North Sea (IVa)
Porcupine Bank (Vllc)
West of Scotland (Vla)
Southwest of Irland (Vllj)
Rockall (Vlb)
South of Porcupine Bank (Vllk)
Other waters
Figure 4.6:
Catching area for landings in the four ports. ICES fishing areas, total 2005–2016. Other waters include: The sound
(lllb), Western English Channel (Vlle), West of Ireland (Vllb) and Kattegat lllaS. Source: The Ministry for Environment and Food,
2017. /LBST 2017, Dynamic landing statistics.
The fishing nations that land their fish in the four ports are primarily Denmark, The Netherlands, Norway,
Sweden and the UK. The landings in the four ports come primarily from the central part of the North Sea
(47%), followed by landings from the Baltic Sea (15%), Skagerrak (14%) and the northern part of the North
Sea (10%), as illustrated in Figure 4.6, below. The fishing areas are illustrated in Figure 4.7.
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Figure 4.7:
Map of the most important fishing areas, ICES fishing areas, important fishing grounds and national EEZ
borders. Source: Own figure. Data from: Esri, DeLorme, GEBCO, NOAA NGDC and ICES.
4.2.2 Landing volumes
On average, 703,270 tonnes of fish was landed in the four ports annually in the period 2011–2015. Skagen
received the largest amount of the landings (41%), followed by Thyborøn (31%), Hanstholm (19%) and
Hirtshals (8%). Of these amounts, landings for the production of fishmeal and fish oil are the most
dominant. This includes species of sand eel, sprat, Norwegian pout and blue whiting. Species for non-
human consumption (for the production of fishmeal and oil) make up 91% of the total landings in
Thyborøn, 71% in Hanstholm and 59% in Skagen. Species for non-human consumption are therefore
important raw material for the industries connected to these ports. Herring is also an important species for
the industry in Skagen (34%) and Hirtshals (37%). Mackerel also makes up 37% of the landings in Hirtshals,
while Hanstholm is more reliant on other species (29%).
Table 4.1:
Volume of all (Danish and foreign) landings in the four ports, tonnes, average 2011–2015. Most
important species in the port are marked in bold. Source: Dynamic landing statistics, lbst.dk.
Port
Hirtshals
Hanstholm
Thyborøn
Skagen
Non-human
Mackerel
consumption (T)
(T)
Herring (T) Other species (T) Total (T)
4,598
21,539
21,530
10,507
58,174
96,566
9
622
39,681
136,877
200,746
2
1,105
18,248
220,101
169,536
414
96,671
21,497
288,118
703,270
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Catches from the UK EEZ landed by Danish vessels in the four ports have the same overall division, primarily
mackerel, herring and species for non-human consumption, as presented in Table 4.2, below.
Table 4.2:
Landings from the UK EEZ, Danish vessels. Average 2011–2015, tonnes. Most important species in the
port marked in bold. Source: The Danish AgriFish Agency vessel register, logbook and sales notes register.
Port
Hirtshals
Hanstholm
Thyborøn
Skagen
All other ports
in Denmark
Total
Non-human
Other species
consumption (T)
Mackerel (T) Herring (T)
(T)
Total (T)
1,350
10,674
12,459
7
24,490
26,905
6
179
1,101
28,192
74,611
9*
700
399
75,719
39,020
23
29,091
8
68,142
18
141,904
0
10,712
1
42,430
75
1,590
94
196,637
*A higher UK zone landing than total landing indicates errors in reporting – as the volume is low, this can originate
from a misreported landing or discrepancies between the logbooks (the basis for calculation of the UK zone landings)
and the landing registration (the basis for all landing volumes at the Agency database). This discrepancy is seen as
insignificant in the larger volumes.
The Danish landings from the UK EEZ has the same pattern in the ports (Hirtshals, Hanstholm, Thyborøn
and Skagen) as the total landings. Species for non-human consumption are primarily landed in Skagen,
Thyborøn and Hanstholm. Herring is primarily landed in Hirtshals and Skagen, and mackerel is primarily
landed in Hirtshals. This distribution is mostly due to the proximity to processing facilities in Skagen,
Hanstholm and Thyborøn for the species for non-human consumption. For herring and mackerel, it is the
facilities in Skagen, Aalbæk and Sæby that attract landings to Skagen and Hirtshals.
Table 4.3 illustrates the importance of landings from the UK EEZ from Danish vessels compared to the total
landings in the four ports. The importance of Danish landings from the UK EEZ is highest in Hirtshals, where
42% of all landings come from the UK EEZ. For the most important landings (mackerel and herring, marked
in bold), Hirtshals is highly dependent on the UK-EEZ landings, since 50% of landed mackerel and 58% of
landed herring come from the UK EEZ.
Table 4.3:
Relative importance of landing volume from the UK EEZ by Danish vessels of all landings (Danish and
foreign) in the four ports, %, average 2011–2015.
Port
Hirtshals
Hanstholm
Thyborøn
Skagen
Non-human
Herring
Other
consumption (%) Mackerel (%) (%)
species (%) Total
29.4
49.6
57.9
0.1
42.1
27.9
-
28.8
2.8
20.6
37.2
-
63.3
2.2
34.4
23.0
10.9
30.1
0.0
23.7
4.2.3 Landing value
Looking at the value of landings shows a slightly different profile of the ports in terms of specialisation in
species – simply because the “other fish” category includes the high-value, demersal species for human
consumption. For Hirtshals and Thyborøn, “other fish” make up just over 40% of the total landing value
(average for 2011–2015). In Skagen, the number is 20%, and in Hanstholm the “other fish” category makes
up 75% (or DKK 520 million), which highlights Hanstholm’s status as the main port for fish for demersal
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species, for direct human consumption; however, 25% of the landing value still comes from species for non-
human consumption.
Landings of species for non-human consumption have high value in Thyborøn and Skagen. Despite a DKK
250 million value of other species, this makes Thyborøn the most dependent on species for non-human
consumption with DKK 343 million annually, almost 60% of the total average landing value. Skagen has a
landing value of DKK 304 million for species for non-human consumption, an important port for such
species, but the primary value comes from landings of herring, DKK 377 million. This makes Skagen the
most important port for herring. Finally, Hirtshals is the main port for mackerel landings and the second for
herring; however, “other species” still represent the highest landing value of the four categories.
Table 4.4:
Value of all (Danish and foreign) landing in the four ports, DKK 1,000, average 2011–2015. Most important species in the
port are marked in bold. Source: Danish AgriFish Agency, Dynamic landing statistics.
Port
Hirtshals
Hanstholm
Thyborøn
Skagen
Non-human
consumption Mackerel Herring
Other species
Total
8
,
137
187
,
408
96
,
966
198
,
136
490,648
173
,
310
93
1
,
668
519
,
871
694,941
343
,
419
26
2
,
797
251,044 597,287
303
,
891
1
,
352
376
,
677
157,986 839,905
Looking at the landings from the UK EEZ by Danish vessels in Denmark (Table 4.5), this is also concentrated
in the four ports when considering the value. It should be noticed that 7% of the value of demersal (other)
fish was landed in three ports not in focus here. Interviews in the ports indicate that the catches of
demersal fish in the UK EEZ and subsequent landings in Danish ports may be higher today than the 2011–
2015 average. This might be a consequence of technological development in the demersal fleet of larger
and faster vessels.
Table 4.5:
Landings from the UK EEZ by Danish vessels. Average 2011–2015, value DKK 1,000. Most important species in the port
are marked in bold. Source: The Danish AgriFish Agency vessel register, logbook and sales notes register.
Port
Hirtshals
Hanstholm
Thyborøn
Skagen
All other ports in
Denmark
Total
Non-human
consumption
Mackerel
Herring
Other species Total
2,188
98,066
48,011
199 148,465
46,613
39
565
17,348
64,564
129,820
57
2,485
6,262 138,624
68,261
311
113,773
44 182,389
38
246,920
1
98,473
5
164,839
2,031
25,885
2,075
536,117
When measured in value, the pattern of the importance of landings from the UK EEZ only changes slightly
as compared to landings in volumes. It is however noteworthy that the value of “other species” in
Hanstholm is relatively high: DKK 17 million. This is though only a marginal value (3.3%) of the total landings
of “other species” in Hanstholm (Table 4.6).
The relative importance of Danish UK-EEZ landings of all landings in the four ports points to the same
species and ports. Hirtshals’ dependency on Danish landings from the UK EEZ is 52% for mackerel and 50%
for herring. The Danish landings from the UK EEZ of species for non-human consumption are of minimal
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influence at nearly DKK 2.2 million out of the ca. 148.5 million DKK of Danish landings, however with a
relative value of 27% out of the total catches of non-human consumption species. For Hanstholm, only
landings of species for non-human consumption are significant, with ca. DKK 46.6 million corresponding to
27% of the total landing value of these species from the UK EEZ. The landing value of demersal (other)
species from the UK EEZ by Danish vessels is DKK 17 million, which is only 3.3% of the total demersal
landings and is regarded to be marginal. Thyborøn receives 38% of its species for non-human consumption
from Danish vessels caught in the UK EEZ. Finally, for Skagen, 23% of the total landings of species for non-
human consumption and 30% of herring landings come from the UK EEZ by Danish vessels.
Table 4.6:
Relative importance of Danish landings from the UK EEZ of all (Danish and foreign) in the four ports, % of value,
average 2011–2015.
Bold:
important species – high volume and of relative importance,
italic:
low volume, therefore not of
importance for the port and community. Source: Own calculation, based on Table 4.4 and Table 4.5.
Hirtshals
Hanstholm
Thyborøn
Skagen
Non-human
consumption, (%) Mackerel, % Herring, %
Other species, % Total, %
26.9
52.3
49.5
0.1
30.3
26.9
41.8
33.8
3.3
9.3
37.8
-
88.8
2.5
23.2
22.5
23.0
30.2
0.0
21.7
4.2.4 Conclusions on the profiles of the ports
Hirtshals
is specialised in herring and mackerel, with 75% of the landing volume. However, the high value of
demersal species (other species) reduces the importance of herring and mackerel to 55% of the total
landing value. When compared to the other communities, Hirtshals receives the largest proportion of the
total landings from the UK EEZ (30.3%) in value and could therefore be said to be most dependent on
landings from the UK EEZ.
Hanstholm
is specialised in species for non-human consumption and other (primarily demersal) species in
volume. In value, Hanstholm is highly specialised in other, demersal species, with 75% of the landing value,
and the importance of species for non-human consumption is 25% of the total landings value. In value,
Hanstholm receives the smallest proportion of its total landings from the UK EEZ (9.3%) in comparison to
the other communities.
Thyborøn
is specialised in the industrial species, representing 90% of the landed volume and 60% of the
value, which is also the highest among the four communities.
Finally,
Skagen
is specialised in species for non-human consumption and herring. These species represent
90% of the volume and 80% of the landing value. Skagen receives both the highest value and volume of
total landings of the four communities.
4.2.5 The influence of other EU vessels’ landings caught in the UK EEZ
One of the limitations in the scope of this report is the focus on Danish fishing vessels, with the risk of
overlooking the potential influence of other EU vessels in the two scenarios. While landings from foreign
vessels do have an influence on the economy of the four communities, the exclusion of these landings from
the scope of the assessment is justified by the proportionality between UK-EEZ landings by Danish vessels
compared to landings of other EU fishing nations, as presented below.
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Non-UK catches in UK EEZ
by volume
0%
Denmark
20%
Netherlands
40%
France
Ireland
60%
Germany
Sweden
80%
Belgium
100%
Spain
Figure 4.8:
Landings from non-UK EU vessels fished in the UK EEZ. In weight distribution. Source: own model
based on Napier, 2016.
Denmark is the largest non-UK fleet currently fishing in UK waters in terms of volume, with 34% of non-UK
catches. When divided between fishing for consumption and processing, it is however evident that
Denmark is by far the most significant player when it comes to fish for non-human consumption, with 77%
of the overall landings caught by non-UK vessels in UK waters (new economic Foundation, 2017, and
Napier, 2016).
Table 4.7:
The influence of foreign landings from the North Sea and British waters (i.e., ICES areas VI, VII, IVA-C, IVN, IVL, IVR and
mussel areas in the North Sea) in tonnes and percentage of total landings in port. Source: Danish AgriFish Agency, Dynamic landing
statistics.
Vessel nation
The Netherlands
Average
from
2005–
2017
(1,000
DKK)
% of
annual
landings
in port
Ireland
Average
from
2005–
2017
(1000
DKK)
% of
annual
landings
in port
France
Average
from
2007–
2017
(tonnes)
% of
annual
landings
in port
Sweden
Average
from
2005–
2017
(tonnes)
% of
annual
landings
in port
Germany
Average
from
2005–
2017
(tonnes)
% of
annual
landings
in port
Skagen
Hirtshals
Hanstholm
Thyborøn
Total
-
30.7
1,412
4,712
6,154.5
-
0.006
0.20
0.79
1
13,464
-
207.5
8.09
13,681
1.6
-
0.03
0.001
1.63
-
-
6,162
-
6,162
-
-
0.89
-
0.89
57,066
3,346
8,590
2,212
71,214
6.79
0.68
1.23
0.37
9
5,127
254
25,043
15,731
46,155
0.61
0.05
3.60
2.63
6.89
The second largest non-UK nation in terms of landings from the UK EEZ is the Netherlands, which, amongst
the four ports, has most landings in Thyborøn. Here, Dutch vessels land fish of an average value of ca. DKK
7.7 million/year, most probably plaice and other flatfish for export to the Netherlands. With the total value
of annual landings in Thyborøn of ca. DKK 597 million on average (Table. 4.4.), the Dutch landings only
make up 0.79% of these, and the influence of Dutch landings are therefore considered insignificant in
relation to the present assessment. Skagen has no recorded landings from Dutch vessels during the last 12
years, and Hanstholm received landings of ca. DKK 1.4 million, although only with landings in two of the last
six years (in 2014 and 2015).
France and Ireland both catch the third largest volumes of fish caught in the UK EEZ (see Figure 4.8) of
which the four ports receive landings of respectively ca. DKK 6,2 million/year (entirely to Hanstholm) and
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ca. 13.7 million/year (primarily to Skagen). These landings do not entirely come from the UK EEZ. Having in
mind the ratio to the Danish and total landings in these ports, these landings are not considered to have a
significant impact on the result of this report, which, along with the lack of data on the exact UK-EEZ
landings amount, explains the exclusion of said landings.
Sweden is a minor taker of fish from UK waters, with only 4.55% of the volume (as illustrated in Figure 4.8).
In the four Danish ports, 9% of the landed value were, over the last 12 years, landed by Swedish vessels.
During this period, Sweden has landed an average value of ca. DKK 57 million/year in Skagen, which by far
receives the highest landed value from Sweden of the four ports. However, only an unknown part of the ca.
DKK 71.2 million/year landed by Swedish vessels in the four ports came from the UK EEZ. For Hanstholm
(the second largest receiver of Swedish landings from the UK EEZ), the value of Swedish landings is an
average of ca. DKK 8.6 million/year compared to the ca. DKK 64.6 million/year of landed fish from the UK
EEZ by Danish vessels (Table 4.5.). Hanstholm received landings from German vessels of ca. DKK 25
million/year in average during the last 12 years, making up 3.6% of the total landings. Second to
Hanstholm, Thyborøn received the highest value of German landings, corresponding to 2.63% of their total
landings. The overall impact of Swedish and German landings are, based on the presented figures,
considered to be insignificant.
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5 ANALYSIS OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF BREXIT
The following two sections present the two central assessments of the report. The first assessment focuses
on the potential economic and employment consequences of the two scenarios. The second section
considers the consequences for the four communities. This is done through an evaluation of how the
communities depend on Danish landings from the UK EEZ and their resilience towards a potential
recession. The two sections are followed by an evaluation of other potential effects and trends that could
influence the outcome of Brexit for the four fishing communities.
5.1 Economic and employment consequences
This section presents the analysis of economic and employment consequences of Brexit based on two
scenarios. The methods for operationalisation of the scenarios and calculations are briefly described in the
text and further elaborated in Appendix 8.2. The operationalisation of the scenarios is firstly elaborated and
is then followed by calculations of economic and employment consequences of two scenarios.
5.1.1 Operationalisation of scenarios
As mentioned in the introduction, two scenarios were formulated by the ministry in March 2017, both
based on the assumption that the UK EEZ will be closed for Danish vessels.
Scenario 1:
Quota rights are maintained and will be caught outside the UK EEZ. No changes in landings
in Danish ports.
Scenario 2:
Catches so far fished in the UK EEZ cannot be caught elsewhere and are lost for the Danish
vessels. Landings in Denmark are reduced by 100% of what has so far been landed by Danish vessels
from the UK EEZ.
The scenarios are analytical and are not intended to be “realistic” in a way that they can be used to predict
a real outcome of the Brexit process. It is at present impossible to predict the actual outcome of the Brexit
process and the subsequent complexity in terms of direct and indirect impacts on the Danish fishing sector
and the local communities. The scenarios should rather be seen as best- and worst-case scenarios,
illustrating the width of possible consequences of Brexit for the fishing communities.
It is important to stress that the assessment is focused on the
immediate
consequences for the four main
ports in Denmark as a result of the two scenarios. This means that
dynamic effects
at sea (displacement of
fishing activities, change of flagging, etc.) or on land (alternative sourcing for the industry, alternative
employment opportunities, etc.) are NOT taken into consideration in the calculation of employment and
economic losses. The scenarios have been operationalised as follows:
Scenario 1:
The maintained volume of landings means that the processing industry in Denmark is not affected.
The vessels that have so far fished in the UK EEZ are affected by having to catch the fish outside the UK EEZ.
The specific actions taken by the vessels and the effects for the vessels are complex, as described in
Appendix 8.2, but remains otherwise outside the scope of this report. Therefore, the operationalisation and
calculation is based on simplified assumptions. It is assumed that the landing value of the current UK EEZ
catches is reduced reflecting that some species can only be caught in a lower quality and therefore lower
landing value and to a higher cost (lower CPUE). Following this, the spending for variable costs for the
catches currently fished in the UK EEZ will be reduced by 50 % of the current landing value. This will result
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in reduced turnover in the sectors providing services for the variable costs (wages for labour, fuel, landing
sale and distribution and finally maintenance) according to the cost distribution in the accounts for the
≥40 m trawlers. Calculations of employment effects (loss of jobs) in the communities are based on the
turnover/job relation in account statistics for selected sectors (Statistics Denmark REGN1 and FIREGN2). In
the allocation of the economic and job effects, the effects are allocated to the home port, although the
vessels may not necessarily use labour or services from the home port.
Scenario 2:
This scenario includes two elements: the vessels reduce spending for variable costs (as in scenario 1) and
loss of landings in the ports, and thus a loss of resources for the industry.
The first element links to scenario 1, with the difference being that the volumes so far caught in the UK EEZ
cannot be caught in the remaining EU waters. Therefore, 100% of the value of landings from the UK EEZ are
lost. This is assumed reflected in reduction in vessels investments in variable costs at the same level as the
landing value, and thereby leading to reduction in turnover for the service providers in the home port.
Likewise, the employment effects will double compared to scenario 1.
The second element is based on data on landings from UK-EEZ waters by Danish vessels. All of these
landings are lost for the processing industry. As mentioned in the previous section, the landings caught in
UK waters by other nations’ vessels are very limited. The loss of fish resources is mainly within three
species/groups: species for non-human consumption, mackerel and herring, which all are processed in
highly concentrated segments of the processing industry. In practice, the effects can almost entirely be
located in five companies, two in fishmeal and oil, two in herring and one in mackerel. The employment
effects are based on an assumption of direct proportionality between the loss in share of fish resources for
processing and share of jobs. The assumptions behind scenario 2 is further developed in Appendix 8.2
5.1.2 Scenario 1 – Economic and employment effects
In 2016, 35 vessels caught 15% or more of their total landing value in the UK EEZ, and these 35 vessels
accounted for 98% of all Danish catches in the UK EEZ. Thus, the following analysis focuses on loss of gross
profit, and the resulting reduction of variable costs for those 35 vessels. The UK-EEZ catches by vessel are
estimated based on an assumption of an average share of UK-EEZ catches for all, divided by species (Table
5.1). Based on this, the volume and value of landings from the UK EEZ for each vessel is calculated,
reflecting differences in catch composition with regard to species and catch areas.
Table 5.1:
Thirty-five vessels with +15% of landings value in UK EEZ: total landing value, value of UK-EEZ
catches and relative UK-EEZ share of all catches, 2016. Source: The Danish AgriFish Agency vessel register,
logbook and sales notes register.
Flatfish
Nephrops
Industrial species
Mackerel
Shrimp
Herring
Cod
Other species
Total
Total landing value,
UK-EEZ value, DKK
DKK 1,000
1,000
UK of total, %
17,987
5,343
29.7%
1,775
127
7.2%
413,486
145,236
35.1%
295,374
257,266
87.1%
-
-
-
624,515
494,697
79.2%
177,861
79,389
44.6%
8,368
195
2.3%
1,539,368
982,253
63.8%
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A few of the 35 vessels were registered with Christiansø and Esbjerg as home ports. Based on interviews in
the ports, it was revealed that they in fact were operating out of Thyborøn or Skagen. In the calculations,
these vessels are considered as having Thyborøn and Skagen as home ports. Based on this, the total value
of catches from the UK-EEZ area is calculated based on home port (+ de facto home ports).
Table 5.2:
Value of landings from the UK EEZ for vessels per home port (+ de facto home port), 2016. Source: Own
calculations based on the Danish AgriFish Agency vessel register, logbook and sales notes register.
UK-EEZ value total
50% of UK-EEZ
Vessels’ relative UK dependency for
Home port (million DKK)
value (million DKK) total catch value, %
Hirtshals
432.4
216.2
73.1
Hanstholm
49.1
24.6
43.1
Thyborøn
105.1
60.7
41.4
Skagen
283.0
189.6
70.1
The short-term effects of loss of gross value for the vessels are assumed to lead to reductions in the
variable costs by 50 % of the landing value of the current UK EEZ catches. The reduction in variable costs is
assumed to follow the normal allocation according to the account statistics of the ≥40 m trawlers: wages
(41%), fuel (34%), landing, sale and distribution (6%) and maintenance (19%) (Statistics Denmark FIREGN2).
This will reduce turnover in companies within the different sectors.
Table 5.3:
Loss of income/turnover in sectors under scenario 1. Based on Table 5.2 and the distribution of variable costs for ≥40 m
vessels, by home port, 2016 data, million DKK. Source: Statistics Denmark FIREGN2.
Home port
Hirtshals
Hanstholm
Thyborøn
Skagen
50% of the UK- Wages (million Fuel (million
Landing, sale,
Maintenance
EEZ value
DKK)
DKK)
distribution
(million DKK)
(million DKK)
(million DKK)
216.2
88.6
73.5
13.0
41.1
24.6
60.7
189.6
10.1
24.9
77.7
8.4
20.6
64.5
1.5
3.6
11.4
4.7
11.5
36.0
The loss in turnover for employees/companies is assumed to lead to a reduction of jobs (e.g. not
leading to an immediate reduction in accepted wage level for the fishers, or for the home port based
service providers in reduction in other costs or profit). The conversion of turnover to jobs is based on
the relation between turnover and number of employees in the relevant sectors. The conversion
rates are calculated as: wages: 1.1 million DKK/job;
2
fuel: 10 million DKK/job; landing, sale and
distribution: 1.6 million DKK/job; and maintenance: 1.8 million DKK/job (Statistics Denmark,
Accounts statistics by industry and Account statistics for fishery by vessel length) – see Appendix 8.2
for a discussion of the conditions.
2
Note the discussion in Appendix 8.2 claiming that the immediate response to less wage payment is most likely
reduction of the salary for the fishermen rather than laying them off. The number of lost jobs may therefore be
overestimated.
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Table 5.4:
Loss of jobs in sectors under scenario 1. Based on Table 5.3 and conversion factors by sectors, 2016 data. Million DKK
and number of full-time equivalent jobs. Source: Own calculations based on Statistics Denmark REGN1 and FIREGN2.
Home port
Hirtshals
Hanstholm
Thyborøn
Skagen
The region
Total
Wages, Fuel,
Landing, sale,
Maintenance, Total, (no.)
(million
(no.)
(no.)
distribution, (no.) (no.)
DKK)
216.2
81
7
6
26
120
24.6
9
1
1
3
14
60.7
23
2
2
7
34
189.6
71
6
5
23
105
491.0
183
17
14
58
272
Based on the calculation of scenario 1, losing 50% of the value of what is currently caught in the UK
EEZ would result in a loss of investment in variable costs of DKK 491 million for the whole fleet. The
largest proportion of this is for vessels with home ports in Hirtshals and Skagen (losses of DKK 216.2
million and DKK 189.6 million, respectively). A smaller amount would be lost for the vessels with
their home port in Thyborøn (DKK 60.7 million) and a relatively small amount for vessels with their
home port in Hanstholm (DKK 24.6 million).
It is assumed that reduced variable costs for the vessels will be distributed as less wages for the crew
members and reduces investment in other variable costs. This would lead to laying off crew members and
in the sectors providing services for the vessels. This is calculated to result in a loss of 272 jobs on a regional
level. Of these jobs, 67% are within the fisheries
3
and the rest are in companies providing services. The
losses of jobs are calculated at port/community level, but as the vessels are highly mobile, the local
allocation of job losses is debatable. It is more likely that the effects for the individual vessel will spread to
several ports and communities. This means that a regional estimate of employment effects better reflects
the actual consequences than estimates at a community level.
5.1.3 Scenario 2 – Economic and employment effects
Scenario 2 takes its point of departure from scenario 1. The same 35 vessels and their home ports are in
focus for the first part of the scenario – loss of turnover and gross profit for the vessels and the effects in
the home ports (or in the region). The only difference is that the loss of income is 100% of the value
currently fished in the UK EEZ. Therefore, consequences in the form of loss of turnover in land and the job
effects will double compared to scenario 1.
Table 5.5:
Value of UK-EEZ landings for vessels in home ports (+ de facto home port), 2016. Source: Own
calculations based on the Danish AgriFish Agency vessel register, logbook and sales notes register. Source:
Statistics Denmark FIREGN2.
Home port
Hirtshals
Hanstholm
Thyborøn
Skagen
3
UK EEZ value total
(million DKK)
432.4
49.1
105.1
283.0
Vessels’ relative UK dependency of total
catch value, %
73.1
43.1
41.4
70.1
Again, note that the most likely practical effect of reduced wages would be lower payment to the fishermen, rahter
than laying off the fishermen, as discussed in section 8.2
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Table 5.6:
Loss of income/turnover in sectors under scenario 2. Based on Table 5.5 and the distribution of variable costs for ≥40 m
vessels, by home port, 2016, million DKK.
UK-EEZ value
(million DKK)
Home port
Hirtshals
Hanstholm
Thyborøn
Skagen
432
49
121
379
Wages (million
DKK)
177
20
50
155
Fuel (million
DKK)
147
17
41
129
Landing, sale,
distribution
(million DKK)
26
3
7
23
Maintenance
(million DKK)
82
9
23
72
Table 5.7:
Loss of jobs in sectors (excl. processing) under scenario 2. Based on Table 5.6 and conversion factors by sectors, by port,
2016, million DKK and number of full-time equivalent jobs. Source: Own calculations based on Statistics Denmark REGN1 and
FIREGN2.
Total
Wages,
Fuel,
(million
(no.)
(no.)
Home port DKK)
Hirtshals
432.4
161
Hanstholm
49.1
18
Thyborøn
121.4
45
379.1
141
Skagen
The region
982.0
366
landing, sale,
distribution,
(no.)
15
2
4
13
33
12
1
3
11
28
Maintenance,
(no.)
51
6
14
45
117
Regional
total, (no.)
240
27
67
210
544
The second element of scenario 2 considers the consequences of the loss of fish resources for the
processing industry. In the scenario, all of the landings from the UK EEZ are lost.
According to interviews, the landings from the UK EEZ mainly go to five larger processors of herring,
mackerel and fishmeal and oil. In spite of several possible companies processing other species for human
consumption, the volume is so marginal that this is not further examined and taken into consideration
here.
The five larger companies lose considerable shares of the total fish resources for processing under scenario
2. It is assumed that the relative loss of jobs in relation to the total current jobs is proportional to the
relative loss of raw materials. Based on employment data from account registrations, the number of jobs
lost in case of scenario 2 is calculated. The specific calculations are not demonstrated due to discretion. The
method is further elaborated in Appendix 8.22.
Based on the above calculations, the direct loss of jobs in the processing industry would be approximately
300. The assumption of direct proportionality between the share of loss of fish resources and the share of
loss of jobs may not be realistic. To some degree, processing activities can be reduced proportionally, but at
some point the profitability of the remaining production might be questionable. The effects of loss of fish
resources might therefore be stronger than calculated if one or more companies are forced to take radical
steps because the remaining production is no longer profitable.
Based on the calculation for scenario 2, losing all current catches in the UK EEZ would result in losses of
income for the whole fleet of DKK 982 million. The largest loss is expected for the fleets with home ports in
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Hirtshals (DKK 432.4 million) and Skagen (DKK 379.1 million) and smaller losses are expected for the vessels
with their home port in Thyborøn (DKK 121.4 million) and Hanstholm (DKK 50 million).
It is assumed that the economic loss for the vessels will be distributed as less payment to crew members
and reduced investment in other variable costs. This would lead to layoffs of crew members and in the
sectors providing services for the vessels. This is calculated to result in a loss of 544 jobs in the region. Of
these jobs, 67% are within the fisheries, with the rest being in companies providing services. The job losses
are calculated at the community level, but as the vessels are highly mobile, the specific allocation of job loss
is debatable. It is more likely that the effects for the individual vessel will spread to several ports and
communities. This means that a regional total of the job effects better reflects the actual consequences
than data at the community level.
The loss of catches in scenario 2 leads to a loss of all landings from the UK EEZ. This will at first primarily
affect five large processing companies in northern Jutland. The loss of jobs resulting from loss of raw
materials for processing is assessed to be 300 jobs for the companies, as can be seen in the Table 5.9,
below.
In scenario 2, the total loss of jobs for the vessels, service companies, ports and processing companies
would be 844 jobs in northern Jutland. The calculations for these estimates of job losses are presented in
Appendix 8.2.
5.1.4 Conclusions on economic and employment consequences of Brexit scenarios
In conclusion to the assessment of the two scenarios presented above, the overall findings are presented
and clarified in Table 5.8.
The two scenarios both assume that the UK will close their EEZ for Danish vessels. In scenario 1, the current
quotas are maintained but the value of the landings of what is fished in the UK EEZ is only 50% because it
has to be fished elsewhere. Nevertheless, the landings are assumed not to change compared to the current
situation. In scenario 2, the Danish fleet also lose fishing rights for what has until now been fished in the UK
EEZ. This also means that all Danish landings from this area are lost for the Danish processing industry.
Based on the two scenarios, the direct effects were calculated in terms of economic losses of the value of
landings for the vessels as DKK 491 million and DKK 982 million for scenario 1 and 2, respectively. This loss
of jobs in different sectors at the regional level was assessed to be 272 and 844 jobs (full-time equivalents)
for scenario 1 and 2, respectively, as summarised in Table 5.8.
Table 5.8:
The calculated direct loss of income for vessels and no. of jobs lost (full-time equivalents) under scenario 1 and 2 – all at
the regional level.
Total loss
of income
(million
DKK)
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
491,0
982,0
Fisher-
men
(no)
Oil
industry
(no)
17
33
landing,
sale, distri-
bution
(no)
14
28
Mainte-
nance
(no)
Processing
(no)
Total
loss of
jobs
(no)
272
844
183
366
58
117
0
300
These estimates only include the direct consequences; the spread of effects in the local communities is not
taken into consideration.
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The local and regional spread of effects depends on the structure of local value chains and labour markets.
This means to which degree those laid off as a direct consequence are local or from regions, and the
secondary and tertiary effects are local, regional or broader.
In some reports, a rule of thumb mentioned is 3–4 jobs on land for every job at sea (Oceana, 2017, or
Teknologisk Institut and IFM, 2008). Based on three jobs in land per job at sea, the total loss of jobs would
be up to 1,500 under scenario 2.
The catchment area analyses (in Danish: oplandsanalyser) on the ports, based on the CTU regional
economic model (Center for Regional og Turismeforskning and SDU, 2017a, 2017b; Madsen et al., 2017),
shows that the indirect jobs generated by the ports is up to 1.5 times the jobs generated directly by the
ports. Given that all the jobs calculated here are considered as direct, port-related jobs, the total effect of
scenario 2 would be a loss of 2,100 jobs.
5.2 Overall influence from decreasing fishing activities in the four communities
The consequences of Brexit are, as indicated above, not limited to the fishing industry and related
industries. The effects of scenario 1 and 2 of this report will not only lead to consequences in terms of jobs
lost within fishing-related industries but will inevitably spread out and affect the four communities in ways
that are challenging to predict.
The history and development strategies of the four communities have over time resulted in four
communities with different capacities and opportunities to resist potential negative developments within
the fishing industry. The communities are not equally dependent on the fishing industry and there are
likewise different influential pressures in the four communities that affect their resilience. There are
however some socio-economic and socio-cultural effects that could influence all four communities. In
several interviews, concerns were raised about the influence of a potential economic loss in the fishing
industry on the overall income of the municipality and what consequences this could bring. Also, the
influence on end prices and the resulting effects on Danish food culture were raised as a potential problem.
5.2.1 Dependency
The dependency of the four communities on landings from the UK EEZ has in this report been determined
by the proportion of Danish landings from the UK EEZ out of the total landings as well as the overall
influence of landings compared to other port activities and the influence on community level. The
dependency on landings from the UK EEZ can be assessed by three different levels of dependency (i.e., the
fishing industry, the port and the community). These three levels are represented in the three elements in
the equation below. The first element (1) represents the fishing industry’s dependency on landings from
the UK EEZ. The second element (2) represents the port’s dependency on the fishing industry. The third and
final element (3) represents the community’s dependency on port activities. In combination (illustrated by
multiplication), these elements indicate the dependency of the community on landings from the UK EEZ.
For further elaboration on the application of this equation, please refer to Appendix 8.3.
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1847518_0044.png
���������������������������������������� =
�������������������������������� ���������������� �������� ������������ (��������������������ℎ)
�������������������� ��������������������������������
������������������������������������ �������� ����������������
×
×
�������������������� ��������������������������������
�������������������� �������������������� �������������������� ����������������
��������ℎ��������������������������������
(1)
(2)
(3)
Figure 5.1:
The dependency equation.
The equation has been used in a comparative analysis of the four communities. Thus, the calculated results
of the three elements in the equation have been used as a comparative measure for the four communities
and are thus not intended to be viewed in isolation. In addition, averages of other Danish fishing
communities were calculated for elements (2) and (3) in order to compare the four communities to other
Danish fishing communities. For the third element, it should be noted that the influence of commuting is
not calculated; thus, if the third element is high, this could be an indication of a high level of commuting to
this community. The results can be seen in Table 5.9, below.
Table 5.9:
The calculated elements of the equation. The results have been ranked low, medium and high based on a comparison of
the four communities within each category and the national average for the second and third element.
(1)
Fisheries dependency
Community
Skagen
Hirtshals
Hanstholm
Thyborøn
on UK-EEZ landings
medium
high
low
medium
(2)
Port dependency on
fisheries
high
low/medium
high
medium/high
(3)
Community
dependency on the port
medium
high
high
high
For
Skagen,
the landed value of fish from the UK EEZ has been medium when compared to the other
communities. The importance of the landings from the UK EEZ for the fishing activities in Skagen should
however not be neglected, since the absolute value and volume are high. Fishing is still a crucial element of
the port activities, being the largest pelagic port in the country, which can be seen by the second element
(2), which was assessed to be high. However, the growing number of activities in cruise ships does result in
a minor decrease in dependency on fishing activities. Also, related to this trend, the community in general
has an influential level of tourism activities and is the largest of the four communities in terms of numbers
of inhabitants, which is why the dependency for the third element (3) was assessed to be medium, the
lowest of the four communities. However, this should not be seen as an indication for the port not being
influential in Skagen. Respondents have indicated that the port is an integrated and paramount element of
the community, including its activities. Skagen experiences less commuting to the community than the rest
of the four communities, thus the impacts on the fishing industry and fishing-related industries should be
expected to be more local than regional. The dependency is therefore more likely to have local socio-
cultural consequences, since the effects of Brexit would be less spread out than in the case of the other
communities.
While
Hirtshals
has proportionally the highest dependency (0.30) on landings from the UK EEZ among the
four communities (1), Hirtshals receives the smallest value and volume of landings from the UK EEZ. The
dependency is also not as severe when compared to the overall economic influence of the port (2), which
was calculated to be low/medium. This is most likely because the fishing industry is only responsible for a
minor part of the income of the port, since the port of Hirtshals has many activities (e.g., ferry activities and
shipping). The dependency on the port for the community as a whole (3) was calculated to be high, which
could be an indication of a high level of inbound commuting. Also, a significant part of value creation and
jobs related to the fishing industry in Hirtshals is situated outside of Hirtshals in the processing factories in
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Sæby and Aalbæk. It should therefore be expected that socio-economic consequences of a decline in
landings due to Brexit will to some extent be shared between the communities of Hirtshals, Sæby and
Aalbæk as well as the adjoining areas. The dependency of Hirtshals on UK-EEZ landings should therefore
not be seen entirely as being locally linked to Hirtshals but rather that it is regionally spread out.
Thyborøn
has a medium dependency on fish from the UK EEZ (1) relative to the other communities;
however, it has the largest volume of landings, which is due to a high amount of landings of species for
non-human consumption. In terms of the economic influence or the port in general, the dependency was
calculated to be medium/high (2). With the exception of the nearby chemical factory, Thyborøn does not
have a substantial number of alternative jobs and sources of value creation unrelated to the port. The port
is therefore paramount to the community and the third element is thus also high (3). The overall
dependency of Thyborøn on the Danish landings from the UK EEZ is therefore considered to be high.
Hanstholm
has the lowest dependency on landings on fish from the UK EEZ of the four communities (1),
despite the actual volume of 28,192 t/year being higher than the volume landed in Hirtshals. The influence
of total landings compared to the gross value added from all port activities is seen as fairly significant and
was calculated to be high, while the Port of Hanstholm is the largest in the country in terms of landed fish
for direct human consumption (2). The dependency on the port at the community level is seen as relatively
high, since alternative working places in Hanstholm are limited. As with Hirtshals, the dependency should
be seen as regionally anchored, since Hanstholm also experiences net inbound commuting.
5.2.2 Resilience
The resilience of the communities has been assessed based on the communities’ population size, other
activities in the community that could compensate for any decline in fishing-related activities and
statements from respondents. All four of the communities are dealing with decreasing populations. This
has already challenged the resilience of the four communities. With an additional negative influence from
the fishing industry, this could put further pressure on the resilience of the four communities and lead to
further population decline.
Resilience and dependency are interlinked concepts in the way that both vary according to the variety and
extent of other non-fishing-related activities taking place in the community. Thus, if a community is highly
dependent on fishery, the community probably shows low resilience and vice versa.
The resilience of the four communities is influenced by an increasingly globalised market for the companies
that supply the fishing industry with services and ship components. These companies have increasingly
widened their markets to neighbouring countries and global markets. This increases the resilience of such
companies and might contribute to secure jobs in the four communities.
Another element that strengthens the resilience is the fact that the fishing industries of the four
communities continuously experience challenges and structural changes, which with time have resulted in
an independent, adaptable and flexible industry. This indicates a high resilience. However, when it comes
to the resilience of the communities as a whole, the resilience is also affected by other factors such as
decreasing populations.
Skagen
has the largest population of the four communities, albeit with the largest decline during recent
decades. The community has a thriving tourism industry that is still growing, and this could to some extent
compensate for loss of jobs and value creation in Skagen if the fishery sector should experience a decline.
However, it is not considered by the respondents that the increasing cruise ship activities can in any
notable way compensate for a recession in the fishing industry. It was also emphasised by the respondents
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how the fishing activities are key to attracting visitors to Skagen, and thus a recession in the fishing industry
could over time have a negative influence on the number of visitors. One view of the respondents was that
the fishing industry is paramount to the permanent residents of Skagen. If the fishing activities stopped
altogether, it was expected that Skagen would transform into being only a holiday destination and not a
place for permanent residency. Although the scenarios of this report only assume a 21.7% decline in landed
value in Skagen at worst and not a total halt, this perception of the dependency between fishing activities
and the residents of Skagen emphasises the interrelationship between the fishing activities and the
continuation of Skagen and indicates a low resilience in case of a recession. The seasonal fluctuations in
customers for the local businesses would, all things being equal, be worsened with a recession in the year-
round fishing industry. Since the tourism industry in Skagen is growing due to the increase in the number of
cruise ships, one could argue that this increase in customers could compensate for a potential decline in
jobs and reduced income in the fishing industry. However, while this to some extent could be the case, the
increased annual fluctuations and loss of income from permanent residents could challenge the
continuation of the community as it is today.
Hirtshals
also has a decreasing population, although with a lower rate than Skagen. This may influence the
resilience negatively. However, Hirtshals offers other activities not dependent on fishing activities such as
the Science Park and Oceanarium, along with the ferry activities mentioned in section 3. This makes
Hirtshals more resilient, although it is expected that the direct compensation for any loss of jobs in the
fishing sector would be low. In Hirtshals, respondents are concerned not only with the direct effects of a
recession in the fishing industry and related industries but also the effects that the reduced income could
have on the financial state of the municipality. A reduced income for the municipality would in return
spread out to areas not directly linked to the fishing activities. Another issue would be the potential impact
of a recession on investments in future developments. If plans for development in the fisheries or fishing-
related industries are dropped due to a reduction in fishing activities, this could have long-term
consequences for the sustainability of Hirtshals, economically as well as demographically, by accelerating
the declining number of inhabitants.
Due to the dependency on the fishing industry of the harbour,
Hanstholm
is considered to be relatively
fragile in relation to changes within this industry. A significant loss of jobs within the fishing industry would
spread out in society to activities related to this industry (blacksmiths, carpenters, electricians, masons,
etc.). The options for alternative jobs are considered minimal, since alternative areas for work (such as
commerce in the community and the public sector) would also experience a decline in demand and a
decreasing income for the municipality. Hanstholm also has the second smallest population, which could
indicate a lower resilience in terms of the survival of the community.
Thyborøn,
being the smallest of the four communities, is also highly dependent on alternative jobs and
activities in the event of strong consequences of Brexit as in scenario 2. Alternative working places are
however few, since many jobs are, if not directly, indirectly connected to fishing activities. One larger job
hub is the Cheminova factory, but it is not considered realistic that this company can take in all fishermen
who potentially could become unemployed due to Brexit. Other activities, such as museums and parks
mentioned in section 3.4, are mostly ocean-oriented tourist attractions, which may be negatively
influenced if the fishery of Thyborøn decreases. This, together with the population size, makes the
resilience of Thyborøn relatively low.
5.2.3 Conclusion on potential effects for the communities
Based on the assessments of the dependency and resilience of the four communities, it becomes evident
how the four communities are affected differently if Brexit leads to a recession for the Danish fishing
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industry. One example is the geographic spread of effects, where negative effects for the fishing activities,
especially connected to Hirtshals and Hanstholm, are expected to be regionally spread out. For all of the
four communities, recessions are expected to influence the municipalities economically and thereby lead to
regional effects.
From the assessment of the four communities’ dependency on landings from the UK EEZ, while they were
all judged to be medium to highly dependent for at least two of the three elements analysed, there are
differences in the pattern of dependency. For example, Hanstholm has a significant part of their landed
value coming from species for human consumption from non-UK waters, and thus the first element was
calculated to be low. The port of Hirtshals has high gross value added from other non-fishing-related
industries, such as ferries and shipping, and was therefore calculated to have low/medium dependency on
the fishery at the port level. In general, the four communities are all significantly dependent on Danish
landings from the UK EEZ, either because these landings make up a large part of the total landings or
because the fishery is highly important for the port and community, and a small change could have
significant consequences.
In terms of resilience, the fishing industry is seen as a highly resilient industry due to the experiences it has
in adapting to new structural changes, annual fluctuations in quotas, etc. The overall resilience is however
seen as being low for all four communities due to decreasing population sizes and a minimal amount of
alternative employment opportunities.
Based on the assessments presented, potential effects of Brexit are therefore expected to be locally severe
in Skagen and Thyborøn, while the effects connected to the fishing industry in Hirtshals and Hanstholm
should be expected to be more geographically spread out. Reduction of the fishing industry in the
communities would influence the identity of the fishing communities. As an example, the local fish festivals,
which can be seen as a manifestation of the identities, could be at risk, e.g. by reduced financial support
from the fishing industry. This could further weaken the four communities’ connection to their history as
fishing communities.
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6
TRENDS AND FURTHER PERSPECTIVES ON BREXIT CONSEQUENCES
The process of interviewing revealed aspects and possible consequences of Brexit outside the scope of this
analysis focussing on possible short-term consequences for the four ports and communities. These aspects
supplement the findings in the analysis. The aspects mentioned by the respondents regards risk of spread
of the consequences to other parts of the fisheries than the part deriving from the UK EEZ. Also discussed
during the interviews were potential activities of the industry that could counteract the effects of Brexit.
6.1 Spread effects in the fishing industry
The data used in the report documents that the consequences of the Brexit scenarios are almost entirely
related to the large pelagic vessels. The interviews revealed however that the consequences could also
spread to other parts of the fishing industry.
Respondents in the ports pointed to a trend in increased demersal fishing for species for human-
consumption in the UK EEZ over recent years. The total catches are at a low level, but data confirm this
increasing trend from 2011 to 2015. If this trend were to continue, the importance of “other species for
human consumption” might be underestimated in this report. The trend might partly be explained by the
technological development and investment in larger and better equipped vessels, which increases the
opportunities for the middle-sized vessels to travel further and faster in order to reach the best fishing
ground (such as the fishing ground Fladen in the UK EEZ). The effects of a closure of the UK EEZ might
therefore affect a broader range of vessels with a more mixed catch pattern. Following this, the next links
in the value chain, which includes parts of the Danish processing industry, might also be impacted to a
higher degree than what has been in focus in this report.
In a more indirect manner, exclusion of the large vessels from the UK EEZ might affect other parts of the
fishing industry, which was expressed especially by fishermen during interviews. The exclusion of the large
vessels could start a displacement process involving many other vessels. To compensate for lost fishing
opportunities in the UK EEZ, the large vessels would occupy fishing grounds until now used by the larger
demersal vessels. This process could spread even to the coastal fisheries. This could lead to instability in
existing fishing routines and preferred fishing grounds and areas, which would influence income and
landings for all Danish vessels, probably mainly in the North Sea and Skagerrak, with spread effects further
on in the value chain.
The sectors servicing the fisheries have often already managed to differentiate the markets to other sectors
in the area or to non-Danish customers in the fisheries sector, which in this report is seen as an increasing
factor for the resilience of the communities. The increased service, maintenance or constructions for
English or Scottish fishermen create a new dependency on this market. The possible change in exchange
rate following Brexit is a possible (and in this relation unexpected) negative spread effect of Brexit, which
could have severe consequences for some companies and thereby affect the communities in general.
6.2 Counteracting activities in the industry
The fishing industry is used to operate in a fluctuating environment, not least because of natural and quota-
induced fluctuations in fish resources for processing. Some counteracting activities could therefore be
foreseen. These could affect the entire fishing industry and the communities as well.
The fishermen predicted that a closure of the UK EEZ would lead to a change in the fishing areas where
they are able to catch the quota – as mentioned above. They were aware that the Brexit process could also
question or change the fishing opportunities in the Norwegian EEZ, or at least change the power relations
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in negotiations of fishing rights in the North Sea. This could limit their flexibility in compensation for lost
fishing grounds in the UK EEZ.
The processing industry, which is only affected under scenario 2, has previously proven able to attract
alternative fish resources when the traditional resource was reduced. A likely action from the processing
industry to counteract reduced landings from Danish vessels is to try to attract alternative landings. This
could be fish that are landed elsewhere today or it could be the “same” fish resources from the UK EEZ but
caught by vessels under another flag if Brexit re-allocates the rights to fish the resource to vessels under
the UK flag. In this case, the industry would try to counteract changed fishing rights by attracting the
resources by offering the best price in the market for the landings. The main concern would be whether the
catches from the UK EEZ would be restricted by landing obligations to protect or establish competing UK
industries. In the case of restrictions on where the fish is landed, a possible reaction could be investments
in processing plants within the areas where the fish can be landed (here the UK). These kinds of steps can
be seen in the EU (Denmark)–Norway relation, where Norwegian herring processors invest in processing in
Denmark to avoid the duty on processed products from Norway (an EEA country) to EU.
As alternative sourcing, aquaculture is not likely to compensate for the potentially lost landings from the UK
EEZ. This is mainly because the main part of the UK-EEZ catches are relative low-value species such as
herring and mackerel or species for non-human consumption, which are often reduced to feed for
aquaculture.
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7 CONCLUSIONS
For the two scenarios of a 50% loss in value of landings and 100% loss of landings, the potential losses of
jobs were calculated. The consequences of
scenario 1
are expected to affect the fishermen and ship owners
as well as service providers. Under the assumption that loss of landing value leads directly to job
reductions, the expected direct loss of jobs was calculated to be 272 jobs at the regional level, while the
indirect effects were not assessed. The vessels operate regionally, but based on their home ports this
would be distributed as 105 for Skagen, 120 for Hirtshals, 14 for Hanstholm and 33 for Thyborøn. These
numbers are job equivalencies and might be reduced to some extent by salary reductions. A 50% loss of
landings value in scenario 1 is also likely to have effects further down the value chain, where fish of lower
quality could result in a reduction of sales value; however, only the direct potential job losses following a
lower value of landings have been calculated in this assessment.
In
scenario 2,
the 100% loss of UK-EEZ landings is expected to affect fishermen, vessel owners and service
providers as well as the processing industry due to a loss of landings and therefore resources for
processing. The expected direct loss of jobs from a lack of income in the fishing industry was calculated to
be 544 jobs at the regional level if reduced salaries are not used to mitigate the effects. Based on the vessel
home ports, this would be distributed as 210 for Skagen, 240 for Hirtshals, 27 for Hanstholm and 67 for
Thyborøn. The calculated loss of jobs in the processing industry at the regional level would be 300, leading
to a direct loss of 844 jobs at the regional level. This does not include job losses from indirect effects on
communities, municipalities and the region, which would spread to many other sectors.
Table 7.1:
The calculated direct loss of income (turnover) for vessels
and induced loss of turnover for service providers, regional level.
Total loss of income (turnover) in the
fishing industry and for service
providers
(million DKK)
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
491,0
982,0
Table 7.2:
The calculated direct loss of income for vessels and number of jobs (FTEs) under scenario 1 and 2 – all at
the regional level.
Fishermen
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Oil
landing, sale, Maintenance
Processing Total loss
industry distribution
of jobs
183
17
14
58
0
272
366
33
28
117
300
844
Spreading effects were not included in the assessment. Using a rule of thumb of one job at sea generating
three on land would lead to a loss of up to 1,500 jobs in scenario 2. Based on the catchment area analysis
(Center for Regional- og Turismeforskning 2017a and b), calculation of direct and indirect job generation of
port activities would lead to up to 2,100 jobs lost under scenario 2.
Further potential effects on the fishing industry
The Danish catches and landings of fish from the UK EEZ mainly consist of pelagic species caught by a
limited number of vessels (35 in 2016). Over the last two years, there seems to have been a small but
growing trend for demersal vessels to fish within the UK EEZ. This trend is supported by the development of
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modern, larger demersal vessels that are equipped to be able to fish further away from landing ports. A
Brexit-related closure of the UK EEZ might therefore affect the demersal fisheries to a greater extent than
could be anticipated based on the historical data and could hamper the current trend in demersal fisheries.
The demersal fisheries and vessels are also potentially affected through the displacement of the largest
vessels (pelagic vessels primarily), especially under scenario 1. Several respondents of the demersal fleet
feared a reallocation of fishing activities from the UK EEZ to areas where other vessels usually fish. This
could start a chain reaction that could eventually affect fishing activities in coastal areas by increasing the
competition for the fish resources.
The four ports and many service industries seem to be relatively robust, as most of the ports (as economic
entities) have diversified to rely not only on fisheries-related activities but also on goods and passenger
transportation, tourism, etc. Likewise, many of the service companies are servicing foreign vessels in the
port or as operators in the larger North Sea region or globally. In spite of this, it is possible that the
diversification of activities and groups of customers is dependent on the existence of a stable “home
market”. In addition, there are indications that the uncertainty of the outcome of Brexit negotiations has
led to a cancellation or, in best case, a postponing of investments in vessels and infrastructure. It could be
considered whether a severe reduction of investments in the long term would raise questions about the
attractiveness of the ports and service companies for foreign vessels.
For the processing industry, the assumption that the activities will be reduced proportionally to the
potential reduction of fish resources for processing might not be realistic. To some degree, processing
activities can be reduced proportionally, but if the reduction in available raw materials reaches a certain
(but unknown) level, the profitability of the remaining production might be questioned. The effects of the
loss of fish resources might therefore be greater than calculated if one or more companies are forced to
take radical steps if the remaining production is no longer profitable.
Effects for the communities
How the calculated loss of jobs and value creation could affect the local communities is determined by the
dependency of the four communities on the fishing activities and the resilience of the communities. Also, it
depends on how connected the communities are to the surrounding areas in terms of the geographical
spread of effects. The assessment indicated that effects of Brexit are expected to be more locally anchored
in Skagen and Thyborøn, whereas the effects for Hirtshals and Hanstholm can be more regionally spread
out. This could mean that effects will have a greater influence on the local culture and identity of Skagen
and Thyborøn both in terms of jobs lost and loss of fishing activities (the latter in the event of scenario 2),
which could hamper the connection to, and economic support of, the fishing industry for the communities.
The effects in Hirtshals and Hanstholm should to a greater extent be seen in a regional perspective, albeit
the communities are also likely to be affected by a loss of jobs and fishing activities, which could influence
the cultural activities around the fishing industry.
Also, the resilience of the four communities is influential on the effects of Brexit. They have all experienced
a decreasing number of inhabitants over recent decades, which puts pressure on the remaining job hubs.
The resilience of the four communities is highly dependent on the variety and number of alternative
workings places for the fishermen and employees in the fishing industry who might lose their jobs as a
result of Brexit. Unfortunately, there are no industries with the same level of activities and number of jobs
as the fishing industry in the four communities, although a small number of jobs might be available. The
resilience is also influenced by alternative value creation such as an increased income from tourism or
other non-fishing-related activities at the ports. This is especially the case in Skagen, where estimates for
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cruise ship passengers are increasing. While this could increase the resilience economically, it is not
considered to be a realistic alternative for the unemployed. This could therefore sustain the community but
not necessarily its inhabitants and identity, while it would transform from being a community where people
live to a community where people primarily visit. In the other communities, ports have increasingly
diversified their activities and industries have turned more and more towards the global market. This could
help secure jobs in fishing-related industries; however, it might not offer alternative jobs for the potential
unemployed.
A loss of jobs and value creation in the fishing industry and fishing-related industries are expected to affect
the entire community both in terms of other sectors, such as commerce, and the potential impact on the
way in which everyday life is lived in the communities. A tangible symbol of the identity as fishing
communities could be the cultural activities such as the fish festivals in Hirtshals and Thyborøn, which is
supported economically and by attendance of the fishing industry. Should Brexit result in a loss of jobs and
income for the fishing industry, the effects will not only be limited to the jobs lost but will also likely be
seen through a change of community cultures and identities that are unique to other Danish communities.
The consequences of a Brexit that results in a reduction of Danish catches in the UK EEZ is therefore not
only a local and regional loss but a national loss, since Skagen, Hirtshals, Hanstholm and Thyborøn offer
unique cultures and are central representatives in the past and present connection between Denmark and
the sea.
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8 APPENDICES
8.1 Respondents
The following persons have been interviewed personally or by telephone as input for the report:
Communities Contacts
Hirtshals
Mette Jensen
Niels Kristian Nielsen (Chairman of the Board)
Jan Woller (Vice Chairman of the Board)
Jens Kirketorp Jensen (CEO)
Hanstholm
Knud Holch Andersen
Niels Clemensen (CEO)
Martin Bjerre (Head of Administration)
Rasmus Buchardt Sørensen (Business
Developer)
Hans Nielsen (Secretary)
Leif Løkke (Sales Manager)
Johannes Palsson (CEO)
Lars Leer (Head of Finance)
Jens Borup (Chairman of the Board)
Ole Holm (CEO)
Carl Jesper Hermansen (Chairman of the Board)
Christian Espersen (Export and Marketing
Director)
Heidi Ebey Grønkjær (Project Leader)
Christian Møller
Niels Olav Vinther Jensen (Owner and CEO)
Kurt Madsen (Chairman of the Board)
Institution
Hirtshals’ Fish Festival
Hirtshals Fishermen’s Association
(Hirtshals Fiskeriforening)
The Port of Hirtshals
Local History Archive for the
Municipality of Thisted
The Port of Hanstholm
Skagen
Local History Archive of Skagen
Cosmos Trawl
FF Skagen
Nielsens Fiskeeksport
Skagen Fishermen’s Association
(Skagen Fiskeriforening)
Skagerak Group Ltd.
Konsumfisk and the Fish Days in
Thyborøn
Local History Archive Thyborøn-
Harboøre-Engbjerg
Kynde & Toft
Thyborøn Havns Fishermen’s
Association (Thyborøn Havns
Fiskeriforening)
The Port of Thyborøn
TripleNine
Sæby Fiske-industri
DPPO, Danish Pelagic Producer
Organisation
HG 333 Isafold
Thyborøn
Other
Jesper Holt Jensen (CEO)
Peter Jensen (CEO)
Kurt Kiil (CFO), information about the project
Esben Sverdrup-Jensen (CEO)
Lise Jørgensen (Owner)
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8.2 Extended description of assumptions and operationalisation of scenarios and
calculations
The following explains the assumptions behind the operationalisation of the scenarios and the reservations
regarding how the scenarios and industry reaction would be in reality. Then, the assumptions behind the
calculations of impact on communities are expanded.
The basic scenarios agreed on with the AgriFish Agency were based on the assumption that the UK EEZ will
be closed for Danish vessels and were formulated as such:
Scenario 1:
Quota rights are maintained and will be caught outside the UK EEZ. No changes in
landings in Danish ports.
Scenario 2:
Fish so far caught in the UK EEZ cannot be fished elsewhere. Landings in Denmark are
reduced by 100% of what has so far been landed by Danish vessels from the UK EEZ.
This allows for operationalising different aspects of the scenarios.
- Vessels retaining the quota but losing the fishing grounds of UK-EEZ – how would they react, what
would the economic affects be, and how would this affect the communities?
- When the loss of income for the vessels is transferred to the communities, how is the loss of
income converted to loss of jobs?
- How is the loss of landings, and thereby loss of fish resources for the fish processing industry,
distributed and how will this influence the number of jobs in the processing industry?
Calculating the loss of landing value for the vessels and allocation to land-based sectors in the
scenarios
Under scenario 1, the vessels will fish their quotas outside the UK EEZ. In scenario 2, this is not possibly and
the catches are lost. Scenario 1 in particular presents relatively complex reaction processes for the vessels,
which is actually outside the scope of this report. Here, we briefly discuss the possible consequences, which
concludes that we use a set of quite simple assumptions for the further calculations of consequences for
the communities.
For vessels normally fishing within the UK EEZ, some of this catch in reality cannot be taken outside the UK
EEZ (e.g., sand eel, which is mainly fished in the UK part of Doggerbank). Other species
can
be fished
outside the UK EEZ, but at a cost. The quality of the fish might be lower (if the fish is in another stage of the
life circle, smaller or with a lower fat content), and/or the cost of catching might be higher (a lower CPUE,
catch per unit effort), because the vessel have to spend more time to find and catch the same volumes. In
reality, the vessel owner would have to give up catching parts of their quota (e.g., sand eel in the UK EEZ)
and could decide not to catch the part of the quota with a too low CPUE. The situation in scenario 1, more
or less equalises the scenario 4 in the report made by IFRO at Copenhagen University (Andersen et al 2017).
This concludes that the landing value for current UK EEZ landings is reduced by 78 % and the gross profit by
80 % compared to the 0-scenario (non or pre-Brexit scenario) (based on Andersen et al 2017, table III.5). It
is however clear, that the capacity freed by this process (days at sea) could be used for fishing alternative
species or places (e.g., non-quota species), which would counteract the effect described above.
In this context the focus is on the consequences for the communities, rather than the vessels. It is not clear
how the loss of gross profit for the vessels would be allocated between the ship owner (as reduction of
profit for the owner) and reduction in the variable costs (as the fixed costs cannot be reduced in the short
8.2.1
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term). The effect of reduced profit for the owner is out of the scope of this analysis, while the reduction in
variable costs is assumed to be transferred as reduced turnover for those providing the services behind the
variable costs. The variable costs are wages, fuel, landing services (landing, sale and distribution) and
maintenance. In the real world, the cost of fuel and maintenance depends on the number of days at sea,
while landing costs and wages depends on the turnover. This means that the variable costs for fuel and
possible maintenance would increase if more time and effort were spent on catching the quota, while
wages and landing costs would decrease with a lower turnover. Which strategy the vessels would chose is
unknown, and we therefore cannot predict how the trends in the variable costs would be.
Given the complexity of the allocation of the loss of profit (loss of turnover and higher costs), and the
complexity in the development of the variable costs the calculations for operationalisation of scenario 1 are
based on a simple operationalisation:
-
-
The reduction in gross profit leads to a 50 % reduction in the variable costs categories, though only
for cost related to the catches normally caught in the UK EEZ.
The loss of spending on variable costs are distributed with the same share of each type of variable
cost, according to the account data for the ≥40 m trawlers (Statistics Denmark FIREGN2): wages
41%, fuel 34%, landing costs (including transportation) 6% and maintenance 19%.
- This means that the owner’s share (reduction of profit) is not taken into consideration in
the calculations, as we cannot address the consequences of this in terms of jobs – either
regionally or in the communities.
Based on the discussion of the “real” effects for the vessels above, where some species cannot be fished,
while other can be fished at higher cost and/or in another quality, clearly questions the assumption of an
unchanged landing pattern. Nevertheless, this assumption is maintained in scenario 1, partly because the
vessels
can
take counteractive steps.
8.2.2 Allocation of lost landing value to reduced turnover for sectors at the home port
In both scenarios, the reduced spending on variable costs for the vessels is allocated to the home port of
the vessel, assuming that the reduced spending is allocated to the respective home port resulting in
reduced turnover in the respective industries (including fishermen in form of wages).
The allocation of reduced activities to only the home port is a rough assumption of various reasons. The
crew is not necessarily living in the home port community. The vessels land where prices are best and
where the market is (especially for direct landings). This is often not the home port. This means that
bunkering fuel, landing costs and maintenance might be in the landing port rather than the home port.
Large maintenance is also often directed to the yards with capacity for the vessel rather than the home
port. Interviews have revealed that the behaviour of the service operators is also regional, sometimes
traveling to other ports to provide services to the vessels they are used to service. They are also partly
working on a regional level rather than purely at a local level. The job effects of the two scenarios is
therefore indicative for the local community but should rather be seen aggregated as regional effects. The
effects of the loss of jobs is calculated for the region because of the low number of processing industries.
8.2.3 Modelling the economic and employment consequences of the scenarios
The economic and employment consequences of the two scenarios are based on simple modelling of the
immediate effects. This means that
no dynamic effects
are taken into consideration; the steps from the
industries and communities to counteract the immediate effects and the derived local and regional effects
of loss of income and jobs for fishermen or service providers.
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The calculations of employment effects (loss of jobs) is based on the assumption that the loss of gross profit
for the vessels is directly transferred to reduced variable costs – which is mirrored in reduced turnover in
the sectors providing services behind the variable costs.
The calculated loss of turnover for the service providers, including labour (e.g., wages), is converted to jobs
based on the turnover/employee relation in general account statistics for the selected sector in Statistics
Denmark (REGN1 and FIREGN2).
4
In reality, this would not be the immediate reaction, as the companies
might take steps to reduce payed overtime (which, according to interviews, are high at the moment) or
profit. Likewise, there would be a time shift in the reduction of labour in order to maintain the specialised
labour force. Nevertheless, in just the medium term, the companies would need to reduce labour to fit the
actual turnover.
Wages:
The loss of wage income is converted to jobs based on the average salary/working day for the
≥40 m vessels and the 24–39.9 m industry trawlers according to the vessel accounts (FIREGN2). The data is
weighted with 5 vessels in the group 24–39.9 m and 30 in the ≥40 m groups. The average annual salary is
based on the total cost of salaries divided by 180 working days/year – for 2015 this was DKK 1.1 million.
Most fishermen are payed by shares of the value of the catch. In practice, the first consequence would be
lower income shared between all crew members or more days at sea to earn the same salary rather than
laying off individuals. Still, we expect one full-time employee per loss of DKK 1.1 million in income.
Fuel:
There is no data available for the relation between turnover and number of jobs in the oil industry. It
is assumed that the main part of the cost of oil is for the commodity and taxes. The latter reduces state
income; the first influences jobs in the oil business in general. The direct number of jobs related to
bunkering of fuel is therefore assessed to be DKK 10 million/job.
Landing, sale, distribution:
This covers income for the port and transport industries. Based on accounts for
49003: Freight transport by road and via pipeline, 52000: Support activities for transportation (e.g., cooling
stores) and 82000: Other business service activities (packaging), the average turnover/job is DKK 1.6
million.
Maintenance:
This sector consists of several industries. Based on accounts for 30000: Manufacture of ships
and other transport equipment, 33000: Repair and installation of machinery and equipment and 43002:
Building completion and finishing (painters etc.), the average turnover/job is DKK 1.8 million.
8.2.4 Effects of loss of fish resources for processing industries (scenario 2 only)
The assessment of the loss of landings in the ports is based on an average of volumes of landings 2011–
2015 of fish caught in the UK EEZ by Danish vessels. The landings are grouped as species for non-human
consumption, herring, mackerel and all other species, which is the demersal species all for human
consumption.
The other species are mainly landed in Hanstholm. The volumes of these species are relatively low (less
than 3% of the total landing volume in Hanstholm). Therefore, the companies that would be affected by
losing the other species are not followed and taken into consideration.
The main landings are herring, mackerel and species for reduction (as seen in total in Table 8.1). Mackerel is
mainly landed in Hirtshals for one large processor. Herring is landed in Hirtshals and Skagen, in general for
one of the two large herring processors and, finally, species for reduction is landed in Thyborøn, Hanstholm
4
The relevant industries (of 102 industries) were identified based on the industry registration of companies in the
ports. The aggregated accounts for these branches has been used for assessing turnover/man-year.
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1847518_0057.png
and Skagen for the local fishmeal and oil processors. Based on interviews, these five companies are
identified as the companies at risk of losing fish resources in scenario 2.
Table 8.1:
Landings from the UK EEZ, Danish vessels. Average 2011–2015, tonnes. Source: The Danish AgriFish
Agency vessel register, logbook and sales notes register.
Port
Industry species Mackerel Herring
Other species Total
Hirtshals
1,350
10,674
12,459
7
24,490
Hanstholm
26,905
6
179
1,101
28,192
Thyborøn
74,611
9
700
399
75,719
Skagen
39,020
23
29,091
8
68,142
All other ports in
Denmark
18
0
1
75
94
Total
141,904
10,712
42,430
1,590 196,637
It is assumed that the loss of jobs is directly proportional to the loss of fish resources for processing. Based
on interviews, we assume that the companies (in herring and mackerel) get all their resources from Skagen
and Hirtshals. The relative loss of raw materials for processing is assessed to equalise the loss of UK-EEZ
landings in these ports. For industrial species, the same assumption is made, only with the extra loss of
trimmings from herring (50% of the volume of herring). Trimming from mackerel is not included here,
which tend to underestimate the importance of the UK-EEZ resource, which might be offset by not
including sources from other ports delivered by truck. This assumption is compared to the more precise
data on sourcing for the herring industries, which roughly confirm the assumption.
Table 8.2:
Relative importance of landing volume from the UK EEZ by Danish vessels of all
landings (Danish and foreign) in the four ports, %, average 2011–2015.
Port
Industry Mackerel Herring Other species
Hirtshals
29.4
49.6
57.9
Hanstholm
27.9
-
28.8
Thyborøn
37.2
-
63.3
Skagen
23.0
10.9
30.1
0.1
2.8
2.2
0.0
Total
42.1
20.6
34.4
23.7
The relative loss of fish resources for processing (based on Table 8.2) is expected to result in a loss of jobs
with the same relative share (direct proportionality). Based on employment data from account registrations
for the Danish Business Authority (here provided by Bisnode), the number of jobs lost in the event of a lack
of all UK-EEZ landings from Danish vessels are calculated. The specific calculations are not demonstrated
due to discretion.
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1847518_0058.png
8.3 Dependency model
For the assessment of how the four communities are dependent on the Danish landings from UK EEZ, a
model was constructed. The model is represented by the equation below, which is made of three elements:
one for the importance of Danish landings from the UK EEZ for the fishing industry, one for the importance
of the fishing industry for the general production of the harbour and one for the importance of the harbour
for the community as a whole. By combining these three elements, an indicator is created that represents
the importance of Danish UK-EEZ landings for the community, and thus the dependency of the community
on these landings.
���������������������������������������� =
�������������������������������� ���������������� �������� ������������ (��������������������ℎ)
�������������������� ��������������������������������
������������������������������������ �������� ����������������
×
×
�������������������� ��������������������������������
�������������������� �������������������� �������������������� ����������������
��������ℎ��������������������������������
(1)
(2)
(3)
Figure 8.1:
The dependency equation.
The applied data for this calculation was selected based on availability and representability. In the selection
process, it was prioritised to find data that in the best possible way represented the intended purpose,
namely that element 2 (total landings/gross value added for the port) represents the importance of the
fishery in the general economic production of the port and that element 3 (employees at port/inhabitants)
represents the importance of the port for the community in general.
The latter was particularly challenging, because employees at port are not only constituted by inhabitants
of the community in focus but also commuters from the adjoining region. This element (3) is thus also an
indicator of commuting (i.e., if the element is high, it is likely that the community attracts a high number of
employees from outside the community). One example for this is how Hanstholm has approximately 1,600
employees at the port, which is 74% of the 2,154 inhabitants of Hanstholm, indicating that Hanstholm has a
high level of inbound commuting.
Table 8.3, below, contains the data that was used to calculate the three elements for the four communities.
Other Danish fishing ports were added for the assessment of whether the calculated outcome for the four
communities was high, medium or low for elements 2 and 3. They were not included in the assessment of
the first element (1), since the other Danish fishing ports do not receive landings from the UK EEZ.
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Table 8.3:
The four case communities and other Danish fishing communities and data corresponding to the equation above. Source:
Harbour assessments from Danish Harbours and Danish Statistics as well as the Agency for Agriculture.
Skagen
Hirtshals
Thyborøn
Hanstholm
Hundested
Rønne
Nexø
Køge
Korsør
Bønnerup
Lemvig
Nykøbing Mors
DK landings
Total landings Gross value added, Employees Inhabitants
from UK EEZ
million DKK
port million DKK
port
million DKK
182
840
780
1,907
8,088
148
491
1,555
2,245
5,880
138
597
848
1,039
2,069
64
695
619.6
1,600
2,154
0
11
170
304
8,832
0
18.3
943.7
1,421
13,924
0
86.9
116.7
293
3,732
0
11
1,958.6
2,471
34,937
0
2
702
1,738
14,439
0
28
49.7
105
855
0
-
265
349
7,195
0
-
199.5
354
9,172
Based on the data above, the three elements were then calculated and an average was calculated for
elements 2 and 3. This outcome was then applied in the final distinction of whether the result, and thus the
dependency, was high, medium or low. The distinction was made comparatively by the use of the average
and an even split in three parts of the overall range of data. For the first element (1), the comparison was
done among the four case communities, whereas for elements 2 and 3 the comparison also included the
average for Danish fishing communities. The comparison is only done within each column and not in-
between columns, as the types of indicators vary from (1), (2) and (3).
Table 8.4:
The three elements calculated from the data in the previous table and an average of the second and third element.
Skagen
Hirtshals
Thyborøn
Hanstholm
Hundested
Rønne
Nexø
Køge
Korsør
Bønnerup
Lemvig
Nykøbing Mors
Average (incl. the four
ports):
(1) Fisheries
dependency on UK-
EEZ landings
0.22
0.30
0.23
0.09
0
0
0
0
0
0
-
-
(2) Port dependency
on fisheries
1.07
0.31
0.70
1.12
0.06
0.02
0.74
0.01
0.00
0.56
-
-
0.46
(3) Community
dependency on the port
0.24
0.38
0.50
0.74
0.03
0.00
0.08
0.07
0.12
0.12
0.05
0.04
0.20
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1847518_0060.png
Table 8.5:
The three elements of the four communities categorised as high, medium, and low, with the medium category
covering a third of the overall range of the communities centred around the average.
(1)
Fisheries dependency
Skagen
Hirtshals
Hanstholm
Thyborøn
on UK-EEZ landings
0.216 (medium)
0.30 (high)
0.09 (low)
0.23 (medium)
(2)
Port dependency
on fisheries
1.07 (high)
0.31 (low/medium)
1.12 (high)
0.7 (medium/high)
(3)
Community
dependency on the port
0.24 (medium)
0.38 (high)
0.74 (high)
0.5 (high)
The scale of low, medium and high is individual for each of the three elements ((1), (2) and (3)), and the
numbers of elements in different columns should therefore not be compared. The comparative nature of
the model should be taken into consideration if the results are used out of context. As an example,
compared to the other communities, Hanstholm is low in dependency of landings from UK EEZ, although it
in absolute terms might not be true and might not be felt so by the fishing industry of Hanstholm.
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