Transport-, Bygnings- og Boligudvalget 2016-17
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NCC GREEN ROAD
Development report 02/10
®
The energy-saving road
Improving socio-economic conditions
by reducing rolling resistance.
A socio-economic report
Date:
May 2010
Authors: Connie Nielsen, NIRAS,
and Trine de Fine Skibsted, NIRAS
Status:
External report
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NCC Roads A/S
Fuglesangsallé 16
DK-6600 Vejen
Denmark
Tel.: +45 79 96 23 23
Fax: +45 79 96 23 24
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.ncc.dk
NCC GREEN ROAD
®
Development report 02/10
The energy-saving road
Improving socio-economic conditions
by reducing rolling resistance.
A socio-economic report
Date:
Authors:
Working group:
May 2010
Connie Nielsen, NIRAS, and Trine de Fine Skibsted, NIRAS
Ole-Jan Nielsen, NCC Roads, Jørn Bank Andersen, NCC Roads,
Bjarne Schmidt, the Danish Road Directorate,
and Henrik Thomasen, NIRAS
External report
Development reports are numbered consecutively
and by calendar year
Status:
Numbering
External report: Extracts may be reproduced with an indication of source
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CONTENTS
PREFACE ........................................................................................................ 2
1.
2.
3.
SUMMARY .............................................................................................. 3
INTRODUCTION..................................................................................... 6
TECHNICAL PRECONDITIONS FOR ECONOMIC ANALYSIS .......... 7
3.1
Correlation between road pavement type and rolling resistance ..... 7
3.2
Correlation between rolling resistance and fuel consumption ......... 8
THE CONDITION OF THE STATE ROAD NETWORK......................... 9
4.1
Measured values for texture and roughness on the Danish State road
network ......................................................................................... 9
4.2
Calculating the fuel saving per vehicle......................................... 11
4.3
Potential fuel savings on existing Danish State road network ....... 12
4.4
Selected stretches of the Danish State road network in relation to
texture ......................................................................................... 12
4.5
Measured values for texture and roughness on the Danish State road
network divided according to motorways and main roads ............ 14
INVESTMENTS AND SCENARIOS ..................................................... 17
5.1
Investments ................................................................................. 17
5.2
Savings ........................................................................................ 19
5.3
Scenarios ..................................................................................... 19
SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS .......................................................... 20
6.1
Preconditions ............................................................................... 20
6.2
Socio-economic gains and costs................................................... 21
6.2.1 Pricing and extent of gains ............................................. 21
6.2.2 Pricing and extent of costs .............................................. 25
6.3
Results ........................................................................................ 26
6.3.1 Sensitivity analyses ........................................................ 28
6.3.2 The Danish Road Directorate’s plan for the operation and
maintenance of the road network .................................... 30
4.
5.
6.
BIBLIOGRAPHY ........................................................................................... 32
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PREFACE
NCC Roads A/S determined during the course of an earlier project that a
reduction in rolling resistance has great potential for reducing fuel consumption.
The present project should be seen as a continuation thereof. The aim is to
examine whether it will be possible to achieve any socio-economic gains by using
the energy-saving road pavement material rather than that which has been used in
the past when planned replacements are made. This, therefore, is a socio-
economic analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of a new type of road
pavement material designed to reduce rolling resistance without any
consequences for friction and, in turn, traffic safety.
The project is the work of Connie Nielsen and Trine de Fine Skibsted from
NIRAS A/S. It has been regularly discussed by a focus group comprising Jørn
Bank Andersen and Ole-Jan Nielsen (both from NCC Roads A/S), Henrik
Thomasen (NIRAS) and Bjarne Schmidt (Danish Road Directorate/Danish Road
Institute). Camilla K. Damgaard from NIRAS has verified the quality of the
socio-economic analyses. NCC Roads A/S financed the study.
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1.
SUMMARY
The aim of this analysis is to examine the socio-economic advantages of an
energy-saving road pavement material versus a traditional road pavement
material. The energy-saving road pavement reduces rolling resistance, which in
turn means that any vehicles which travel along the road can save fuel. Replacing
the road pavement on all State roads over a period of 15 years will lead to total
socio-economic savings of DKK 1.9 billion. These savings will come about as
follows:
•
The annual fuel consumption will be reduced by 48 million litres,
equivalent to a value of at least DKK 250 million.
The emission of greenhouse gases will be reduced by 45,000 tonnes of
CO
2
equivalent annually, which corresponds to DKK 30.5 million.
NO
x
and SO
2
emissions will be reduced. This corresponds to DKK 28
million.
•
•
The socio-economic calculation is based on a technical study that has analysed
the three relevant measurable parameters for a road pavement, namely the texture
(MPD), roughness (IRI) and rigidity (deflection). On the basis of the technical
study, it has been assumed in the socio-economic analysis that texture and
roughness are what affect the rolling resistance since the impact of rigidity has
proved to be marginal.
Chapter 3 examines the correlation between the MPD and IRI on the one hand,
and the rolling resistance on the other. It also looks at the relationship between
changes in rolling resistance and how these affect changes in vehicle fuel
consumption.
Chapter 4 looks at the overall potential fuel savings on the Danish State road
network if we assume that all roads have MPD and IRI values that are at least as
good as the same values for the energy-saving asphalt. On average, it would be
possible to save approximately 3.3% of the fuel used today when vehicles use the
State road network by replacing the current road pavement with energy-saving
road pavement materials. Measured in terms of fuel, this saving amounts to 47.4
million litres by scaling down the MPD to 0.6, and 6.5 million litres of fuel by
scaling down the IRI to 0.9. The maximum values for both MPD and IRI on the
entire State road network would require the replacement of 99.8% of the wearing
surface on the old roads measured in kilometres.
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Since the greatest contribution to potential savings by far comes from the road
texture (MPD), Section 4.4 looks only at those stretches of road where it is
possible to improve the texture. Splitting the chosen stretches of road into
motorways and main roads reveals a potential annual saving of approximately 28
million litres of fuel for motorways, or just under 2.7%, and some 26 million
litres on the main roads, or just under 4.6%. The reason for the potentially greater
saving in terms of percentage for main roads is that there are relatively more of
the measured IRI and MPD values at the higher end of the distribution for the
main roads compared with the motorways.
The calculations showing potential fuel savings based on the existing State road
network will appear too positive in a socio-economic analysis, since replacing the
road pavement with a traditional road pavement material would equally contribute
towards a reduction in fuel consumption. We have therefore chosen, in the socio-
economic analysis, to compare the switch to energy-saving asphalt with using a
traditional type of asphalt.
Chapter 5 sets out the investments required to switch to energy-saving asphalt on
the one hand, and to using a traditional type of asphalt on the other. Similarly, the
chapter shows the basis of calculation for the savings that may be achieved by
moving from a traditional type of asphalt to the energy-saving asphalt.
Chapter 6 sets out the actual socio-economic analysis on the basis of the
establishment costs and savings outlined in Chapter 5. The socio-economic
analysis shows the gains, expenses and costs involved in replacing a traditional
road pavement with an energy-saving road pavement material. In addition to a
reduction in fuel consumption, the use of the energy-saving road pavement
material also entails a reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases, SO
2
and
NO
x
. Both the fuel saving and the reduction in environmental impacts are
included as gains in the analysis. The following table lists the gains to be
achieved if the entire State road network were to be paved with the energy-saving
road pavement material. As may be seen, the greatest benefit to be achieved by
establishing an energy-saving road pavement stems from the reduction in fuel
consumption.
Table 1.1: Potential savings in fuel consumption and environmental impacts on existing State
road network
Value, DKK millions
Amount
Fuel saving
47.6 million litres
250–410
1
30.5
Greenhouse gases, total
44,882 tonnes CO
2
equivalent
0.01
SO
2
306 kg
28
NO
x
76,297 kg
308.51–468.51
Gains, total per year
1: The value depends on the year in question. In the table, the low value applies to 2010 while the
high value applies to 2024.
In addition to the establishment costs, the distortion loss resulting from reduced
tax proceeds leads to costs in the analysis.
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If we assume that all roads in the State road network are paved with the energy-
saving road pavement material over a 15-year period, it would result in an
economic gain of DKK 187 million per year as shown in Table 1.2. The overall
gain over the entire 15-year period is DKK 1.9 billion. The analysis includes a
number of sensitivity analyses, and we may conclude on this background that the
above-mentioned results are relatively solid.
Table 1.2: Results, DKK million per year
Scenario 1:
Motorways
Annual establishment
130.3
costs for energy-saving
road pavement
Annual establishment
142.3
costs for traditional road
pavement
Additional annual
establishment costs for
energy-saving road
-12.0
pavement versus
traditional road
pavement
Annual value of gains
Annual socio-economic
gain
107.1
119.1
Scenario 2:
Main roads
244.8
Scenario 3:
All State roads
375.1
223.0
365.4
21.8
9.8
89.4
67.6
196.5
186.7
The Danish Road Directorate has set aside an expected average of DKK 330
million per year over the next 10 years for new road pavements. This figure
corresponds to the value of the annual savings in fuel and environmental impacts
if the entire State road network were to be paved with energy-saving road
pavement material, cf. Table 1.1. This level of funding actually means that it
would be possible to repave more than 1/15 of the roads in the State road network
every year, as presumed in this report. This would mean that the potential gains
may be realised earlier, and that the overall socio-economic gain may therefore
effectively be greater than DKK 1.9 billion.
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2.
INTRODUCTION
Road surfaces affect rolling resistance and thereby fuel consumption and CO
2
emissions. NCC Roads A/S has therefore initiated a development project in
collaboration with the Danish Road Institute, the Danish Road Directorate and
Dynatest Danmark A/S in order to identify potential opportunities for reducing
energy consumption in road transport by using special types of road pavement
materials. This collaborative effort resulted in the first technical report on energy-
saving roads (Schmidt et al., 2009).
NCC Roads now aims to examine whether it would be possible to achieve any
socio-economic gains by using the energy-saving road pavement material rather
than that which has been used in the past when planned replacements are made.
This, therefore, is a socio-economic analysis of the advantages and disadvantages
of a new type of road pavement designed to reduce rolling resistance without any
consequences for friction and, in turn, traffic safety. The project is being carried
out in collaboration with the Danish Road Directorate/Danish Road Institute and
NIRAS.
The present report is well in line with the Finance Act agreement for 2010, which
provides opportunities for accelerating investments in road pavement and
construction work on the Danish State road network as a result of the plan to
boost maintenance work during the period 2010–2013. According to the
agreement, the aim is also to ensure the most favourable 10-year maintenance
strategy in order to minimise life-cycle costs for road pavement and structures.
The Danish Road Directorate has announced that some DKK 150 million were
spent on asphalt every year prior to 2009. A sum of DKK 350 million was set
aside for capital improvements in 2009, a figure that has since been increased to
DKK 650 million every year for the period 2010–2011 (Jacobsen 2010).
The analyses in this report show how investments in energy-saving road
pavement materials can achieve gains. The potential saving in energy achievable
by using an energy-saving road pavement material would also mean a reduction
in greenhouse gases, SO
2
and NO
x
. The potential CO
2
reductions are over and
above the reductions typically quoted.
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3.
TECHNICAL PRECONDITIONS FOR ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Several factors affect rolling resistance as highlighted in the first technical report
on energy-saving roads (Schmidt et al., 2010). In the present socio-economic
analysis, we will be focusing on the correlation between road pavement and
rolling resistance. The aim is to identify the amount of fuel that may be saved by
using a new energy-saving road pavement material which is designed to reduce
rolling resistance. For this purpose, we require technical data to illustrate the
correlation between road pavement and rolling resistance on the one hand, and
between rolling resistance and energy consumption on the other.
3.1
Correlation between road pavement type and rolling resistance
There are three factors in particular which may affect rolling resistance. These are
the road’s texture (Mean Profile Depth), roughness (International Roughness
Index) and rigidity (deflection). Since the most important factors as regards
rolling resistance are the road’s texture (MPD) and roughness (IRI), the socio-
economic analysis will focus on these values.
Energy Conservation in Road Pavement Design (ECRPD) has published figures
for changes in rolling resistance for speeds of 54 km/h and 90 km/h
(Hammarström et al., 2009). The published changes in rolling resistance as a
result of changes in MPD and IRI values respectively, are as follows:
Correlation between IRI and rolling resistance
The change in rolling resistance expressed as a
percentage for an increase in roughness of 1 metre
per kilometre is 1.8% at a speed of 54 km/h and 6%
at a speed of 90 km/h.
Correlation between MPD and rolling resistance
The change in rolling resistance expressed as a
percentage for an increase in macro texture of 1 mm
is 17% at a speed of 54 km/h and 30% at a speed of
90 km/h.
The correlations between IRI and rolling resistance on the one hand, and between
MPD and rolling resistance on the other, are assumed to be linear. We have
deemed these hypotheses reasonable for the interval of measured IRI and MPD
values available for the existing Danish State road network.
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According to a memo from the Danish Road Directorate (2008b), the average
speed on the trunk roads in 2005 was measured at 83 km/h in Jutland and at 80
km/h elsewhere in the country. The memo also states that the average speed on
the motorways has been measured at 115 km/h where the speed limit is 110 km/h,
and at 120 km/h on motorways where the speed limit is 130 km/h. Since the
average speeds are not far off 90 km/h, we have chosen to employ the correlation
between IRI and MPD on the one hand and rolling resistance on the other for this
speed.
3.2
Correlation between rolling resistance and fuel consumption
There are also various hypotheses regarding the correlation between rolling
resistance and fuel consumption. According to a German study, an increase in
rolling resistance of 10% leads to an increase in fuel consumption of 4%, or to an
increase of 3% according to a study from Gdansk in Poland. On the basis of the
prudence principle, we have chosen to employ the latter hypothesis, namely that
fuel consumption increases by 3% when rolling resistance increases by 10%.
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4.
THE CONDITION OF THE STATE ROAD NETWORK
We have chosen to use the existing values for MPD and IRI on the Danish State
road network as a basis for assessing the potential savings in fuel consumption.
The traffic on the State road network constitutes 45% of the total traffic in
Denmark (Danish Road Directorate, 2008). The total length of the State road
network as of 1 January 2008 has been measured at 3,817 km, or 5% of the entire
road network in Denmark. The Danish Road Directorate regularly collects a series
of data concerning the Danish State road network, and these figures have been
employed in the present study.
4.1
Measured values for texture and roughness on the Danish State road
network
The measured values for texture (MPD) and roughness (IRI) on the Danish
State road network both show a widespread distribution as illustrated in
Figures 4.1 and 4.2, respectively.
1000
920.9
900
800
Road length (km)
700
600
518.6
500
400
300
200
111.4
100
18.8
0
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Mean MPD
1.2
65.6
4.2
7.6
(km)
328.7
225.2
644.8
193.8
Note:
Source:
Figure 4.1:
The column labelled 0.5 includes values which are greater than 0.5 and
smaller than or equal to 0.6, so the interval for the measured values is
(0.5;0.6].
Danish Road Institute
Measured values for MPD (Mean Profile Depth) on the Danish State road
network
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700
593.4
600
Road length (km)
500
642.2
587.3
551.1
404.3
400
300
200
92.1
100
9.2
0
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2
2.1
2.9
26.0
1.2
3.0
0.0
81.6
7.5
1.8
0.3
276.3
247.6
191.8
Mean IRI
Note:
Source:
Figure 4.2:
The column labelled 0.8 includes values which are greater than 0.8 and
smaller than or equal to 0.9, so the interval for the measured values is
(0.8;0.9].
Danish Road Institute
Measured values for IRI (International Roughness Index) on the Danish
State road network
We can improve the current values for MPD and IRI on the Danish State
road network so that the maximum values are MPD = 0.6 and IRI = 0.9.
These values represent a reasonable level for energy-saving asphalt. This
corresponds to scaling down all MPD values that exceed 0.6 in Figure 4.1 to
being equal to maximum 0.6. As far as the current measured values for the
State road network are concerned, this condition has been met for those
values represented in the column to the left of the red line in Figure 4.1, since
this covers the interval (0.5;0.6] and therefore includes a value of 0.6.
Similarly, we can scale down all IRI values which exceed 0.9 to being equal
to 0.9 in Figure 4.2. Once all values for MPD and IRI have been set to a
maximum of 0.6 and 0.9 respectively (i.e. all the values to the right of the
vertical red lines in Figures 4.1 and 4.2 are scaled down to these values), we
can examine the amount of fuel that could be saved on the Danish State road
network.
The values of 0.6 and 0.9 for MPD and IRI respectively were selected on the
basis of an estimate of what may be achieved by renovating a stretch of road. If
the MPD value becomes too low, there is a risk that the road may no longer meet
the friction requirements stipulated by Danish road regulations. An MPD value of
0.3 is one of the critical parameters that will cause the Danish Road Institute to
earmark a stretch of road for friction measurements. By selecting an MPD value
of 0.6, it is felt that the risk of subsequent friction problems will be minimal. A
higher IRI value would mean cars would ‘bounce’ considerably, which also has a
negative impact on vehicles. The IRI value is therefore already included in a user
cost expression that forms part of the planned road pavement replacement
strategy for the Danish State road network. An IRI value of 0.9 is felt to be a
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reasonable roughness which may be achieved by means of careful levelling and
alignment when renovating existing roads. In summary, there is a limit as to how
low the MPD value may be and how high the desired IRI value may be in relation
to the necessary replacement of the road pavement for maintenance reasons.
Likewise, there is a limit as to how much the IRI value can be reduced depending
on the costs involved in renovating the road.
4.2
Calculating the fuel saving per vehicle
On the basis of the improved MPD and IRI values, an example may be used to
illustrate the principle behind the calculation to determine the fuel saving that
may be achieved when a single vehicle travels along a stretch of road.
Let us assume that a vehicle travels at 90 km/h, which results in a 30% change in
rolling resistance for an increase in the macro texture value (MPD) of 1 mm. Let
us further assume that the MPD value is 1.0, so that a reduction in the MPD value
to 0.6 contributes towards the saving in fuel as follows:
•
•
The percentage-wise change in rolling resistance = (1-0.6) * 0.30 = 0.12
The percentage-wise change in fuel consumption = 0.03*(0.12/0.10) =
0.036
The contribution made by the improvement in MPD value thus comprises 3.6% of
the vehicle’s total fuel consumption.
Let us assume that a vehicle travels at 90 km/h, which results in a 6% change in
rolling resistance for an increase in roughness (IRI value) of one metre per
kilometre. Let us further assume that the measured IRI value for the stretch of
road whereupon the vehicle is travelling is 1.00. An improvement in the road’s
IRI value to 0.9 would, given the above assumptions, allow us to calculate the
vehicle’s fuel consumption as follows:
•
The percentage-wise change in rolling resistance = (1.00-0.9) * 0.06 =
0.006
The percentage-wise change in fuel consumption = 0.03*(0.006/0.10) =
0.0018
•
The contribution made by the improvement in the IRI value thus comprises 0.2%
of the vehicle’s total fuel consumption.
The total fuel saving achieved by changing both the MPD and IRI values, as
shown in the two calculations above, is thus 3.8%.
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4.3
Potential fuel savings on existing Danish State road network
The above example involving a single vehicle may be generalised to include all
vehicles travelling on the Danish State road network. An overall assessment of
the total potential fuel saving across the entire Danish State road network shows
that it would be possible to save 3.3% of the fuel consumed today.
The saving of 3.3% is calculated by assuming that the values for texture and
roughness are improved for all stretches of the Danish State road network so that
they are max. 0.6 for MPD and 0.9 for IRI. In fact, these requirements would
involve changes to all stretches of the Danish State road network except a single
stretch of road measuring 9.2 km, for which the values of MPD and IRI are
already below the above-mentioned values. The 3.3% saving therefore
presupposes that 99.8% of the existing kilometres on the Danish State road
network be replaced.
The 3.3% saving is based on the current fuel consumption being just short of
1,620 million litres given the measured values for annual average daily
traffic (AADT), the number of kilometres that make up the Danish State road
network and an assumption that a vehicle is capable of doing 11.83 km to the
litre. By scaling down all MPD values in Figure 4.1 to a maximum value of
0.6, it would be possible to save approx. 47.4 million litres of fuel. Similarly,
it would be possible to save 6.5 million litres of fuel by scaling down the IRI
values to a maximum of 0.9 as shown in Figure 4.2.
4.4
Selected stretches of the Danish State road network in relation to texture
Since the greatest potential fuel saving lies in improving the texture of the road
pavement (MPD), this section is based on the criterion that the MPD value must
be equal to max. 0.6. This limit value alone would mean replacing large parts of
the Danish State road network, and the roads to be replaced would also see their
IRI value improved, thus bringing further gains. Figure 4.3 provides an overview
of the share of the Danish State road network that would require replacing when
the criterion is roads where MPD > 0.6.
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3900
3700
3500
3300
MPD<0.6 and IRI<=0.9
MPD<0.6 and IRI>0.9
IRI<=0.9
MPD>0.6 and IRI<=0.9
3100
MPD>0.6 and IRI>0.9
2900
2700
2500
Number of kilometres on the Danish
State road network
Figure 4.3:
The Danish State road network divided according to criteria for the
road pavement's texture (MPD) and roughness (IRI)
There are only three stretches of road where the measured MPD value is lower
than the maximum value of 0.6. These stretches measure just under 19 km in total
as shown in Figure 4.3.
Since the stretches of road which, if replaced, would contribute towards fuel
savings as a result of improvements in
both
MPD and IRI represent the greatest
potential, we have chosen to divide these still further. We have therefore taken all
those stretches of the Danish State road network where the texture may be
improved (i.e. MPD > 0.6), and divided these as shown in Table 4.1 according to
whether or not the roughness value can
also
be improved (i.e. IRI <= 0.9 or IRI >
0.9).
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Table 4.1: Annual saving in fuel consumption on the Danish State road network divided
according to motorways and main roads and the values for texture (MPD) and roughness
(IRI)
Motorways
Main roads
Saving
MPD > 0.6 and
IRI > 0.9
22.4 million litres
(2.7%)
Distance in km
829
Saving
Distance in km
26.0 million
2566
litres
(4.6%)
MPD > 0.6 and
5.3 million litres
254
0.2 million
50
IRI
≤
0.9
(2.4%)
litres
(2.3%)
Note: There are only three stretches of the Danish State road network with MPD values of less
than 0.6. The MPD values for these stretches are all greater than or equal to 0.5. The three
stretches add up to 18.8 km in total.
As shown in Table 4.1, it would be possible to optimise both the MPD and IRI
values for most stretches of the Danish State road network. This applies to 829
km of motorway and 2,566 km of main road. In these cases, a total saving of 22
million litres of fuel could be made on the motorways, along with 26 million litres
on the main roads, which corresponds, respectively, to 2.7% and 4.6% of the total
fuel consumption calculated for the stretches of road in question.
The values in Table 4.1 indicate that the total saving in fuel consumption on
the existing Danish State road network of 3.3% mentioned in Section 4.3
may be split, so that the greatest potential for saving fuel is represented by
the main roads followed by the motorways. The reason that the saving is
greater in percentage terms for the main roads seems to be that there are
relatively more of the measured values for MPD and IRI at the higher end of
the distribution as illustrated by Figure 4.1 and Figure 4.2 in the subsequent
Section 4.5.
4.5
Measured values for texture and roughness on the Danish State road
network divided according to motorways and main roads
Splitting the MPD and IRI values from the total Danish State road network into
values for motorways and main roads respectively shows that there are relatively
more of the measured values for the main roads at the higher end of the
distribution. Figure 4.4 and Figure 4.5 illustrate the distribution of measured MPD
values for the Danish State road network divided into main roads and motorways.
Similarly, Figure 4.6 and Figure 4.7 show the measured IRI values for motorways
and main roads, respectively.
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400
350
300
Road length (km)
250
200
150
371.8
321.2
271.4
112.8
100
50
10.7
0
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Mean MPD
1.2
3.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Source:
Note:
Figure 4.4:
Danish Road Institute
The column labelled 0.5 includes values which are greater than 0.5 and
smaller than or equal to 0.6, so the interval for the measured values is
(0.5;0.6].
Measured values for MPD (Mean Profile Depth) on motorways
700
599.7
600
500
Road length (km)
400
300
(km)
200
111.4
100
8.0
0
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Mean MPD
0.0
65.6
4.2
7.6
272.9
247.1
215.9
221.6
193.8
Source:
Note:
Figure 4.5:
Danish Road Institute
The column labelled 0.5 includes values which are greater than 0.5 and
smaller than or equal to 0.6, so the interval for the measured values is
(0.5;0.6].
Measured values for MPD (Mean Profile Depth) on main roads
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400
350
369.7
294.7
300
Road length (km)
250
200
150
100
50
9.2
0
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Mean IRI
1.2
26.0
1.3
66.2
22.2
0.0
65.5
10.5
226.3
Note:
Source:
Figure 4.6:
The column labelled 0.8 includes values which are greater than 0.8 and
smaller than or equal to 0.9, so the interval for the measured values is
(0.8;0.9].
Danish Road Institute
Measured values for IRI (International Roughness Index) on motorways
600
521.0
500
Road length (km)
403.0
400
300
223.7
200
100
0
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2
2.1
2.9
Mean IRI
182.2 191.8
81.7
50.0
3.0
0.0
7.5
1.8
0.3
81.6
347.5
528.9
Note:
Source:
Figure 4.7:
The column labelled 0.8 includes values which are greater than 0.8 and
smaller than or equal to 0.9, so the interval for the measured values is
(0.8;0.9].
Danish Road Institute
Measured values for IRI (International Roughness Index) on main roads
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5.
INVESTMENTS AND SCENARIOS
Considerable establishment costs are usually involved the year a stretch of road is
repaved. The new pavement, however, may bring about such advantages that it
pays for itself over the course of its lifetime, thus representing a worthwhile
investment over time.
The actual establishment costs and the resultant advantages may be subject to
selected points of reference. As the roads would also be improved by the use of a
traditional road pavement material, we have chosen to compare the energy-saving
asphalt with a traditional type of asphalt. Replacing the road surface with a
traditional road pavement material is a point of reference when examining the
benefits of replacing the surface with an energy-saving material.
5.1
Investments
We need to look at the effect of the energy-saving asphalt in relation to the type
of pavement material that would otherwise be used on the roads. Maintenance
work on the Danish State road network currently lags behind, and it appears
unrealistic to expect the existing pavement to last for another 15 years, which is
the lifetime of the new energy-saving asphalt. We therefore need to hold all
factors associated with the energy-saving asphalt (establishment costs, fuel
savings, etc.) up against a new surface layer of traditional asphalt, which, it is
assumed, would be used if the energy-saving asphalt were not to be employed.
For this reason, we need to examine the establishment costs associated with both
the energy-saving asphalt and a traditional asphalt type. The establishment costs
for 1 km of asphalt are shown in the table below. In determining the
establishment costs, it has been assumed that the load-carrying capacity of the
existing stretch of road is adequate. No reinforcement layer costs have thus been
included in any of the suggested solutions.
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Table 5.1: Establishment costs, 2010-DKK (NCC 2010)
Lifetime, years
Energy-saving
Million DKK/km
Annuity
DKK/km
3
106,362
152,895
83,240
113,677
163,410
77,459
Motorway, 4 lanes
1
15
1.10
2
Motorway, 6 lanes
15
1.59
Main road
15
0.86
Traditional
Motorway, 4 lanes
16
1.23
Motorway, 6 lanes
16
1.77
Main road
15
0.80
1
: A 4-lane motorway with two lanes in each direction.
2
: A 6-lane motorway with three lanes of 11.5 m in width in each direction.
3
: A real interest rate of 5% has been employed.
In the case of motorways, the establishment costs for traditional asphalt are higher
than those for energy-saving asphalt due to the thickness of the wearing surface.
The expected lifetime of the energy-saving road pavement, however, has been
conservatively estimated at a year less than the expected lifetime of the traditional
road pavement. If we look at lifetime versus establishment costs, however, the
establishment costs for the energy-saving road pavement are still lower than those
associated with a traditional road pavement as may be seen in the last column of
Table 5.2.
The same does not, however, apply to the main roads. Here, the traditional road
pavement is less costly than the energy-saving material, partly because the
traditional road pavement employs a more inexpensive wearing surface, and
partly because the consequential costs associated with creating a smooth road are
greater per kilometre due to the smaller width of the main roads, i.e. there are
fewer square metres across which the costs may be spread.
Table 5.2 shows the total establishment costs associated with repaving the entire
Danish State road network.
Table 5.2: Total establishment costs, 2010-DKK, factor prices
Total establishment costs,
Km road
DKK million
1,093
1,207
Energy-saving
Motorway
2,624
2,267
Main road
1,093
1,347
Traditional
Motorway
2,624
2,111
Main road
Note: All motorways are assumed to be four-laned.
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5.2
Savings
In Chapter 4, the potential fuel savings were assessed on the basis of the existing
road network. It would be a mistake, however, to employ this savings potential in
the socio-economic analysis. The reason, among others, is that the socio-
economic analysis presupposes that the road pavement will be replaced on a
successive basis over the estimated lifetime of 15 years. The current condition of
the roads, however, means that it is unrealistic to believe that the existing roads
will last for this long. The socio-economic analysis is therefore carried out as a
partial analysis, where the advantages of a new energy-saving road pavement are
assessed in relation to the roads being repaved using a traditional road pavement
material.
Table 5.3: Assumptions about IRI and MPD for energy-saving road pavement and
traditional road pavement in the socio-economic analysis
Energy-saving road pavement
Traditional road pavement
IRI
Motorways
(MW)
Main roads
(MR)
0.9
0.9
MPD
0.6
0.6
IRI
1.0
1.0
MPD
0.86
1.00
The energy-saving road pavement has an IRI value of 0.9 and an MPD value of
0.6 as described in Chapter 4. By comparison, it has been assumed that the
traditional road pavement has an IRI value of 1.0 along with an MPD value of 1.0
for main roads and 0.86 for motorways. The MPD value of 0.86 on the
motorways was chosen because it corresponds to the current average MPD value
for motorways. In Section 6.2.1 the potential for saving fuel has been calculated
for the energy-saving road pavement compared with a traditional road pavement
using the method described in Section 4.2.
5.3
Scenarios
The analysis assesses the socio-economic costs using three different scenarios.
The analysis is further supplemented by a number of sensitivity analyses.
Specifically, we examine the following scenarios:
1. Successive replacement of all motorway surfaces over a 15-year period.
2. Successive replacement of all main road surfaces over a 15-year period.
3. Successive replacement of all road surfaces across the entire Danish State
road network over a 15-year period.
The results of the analysis are further enriched by means of sensitivity analyses
that examine the discount factor, the fuel cost and the value of externalities.
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6.
SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
In the following, the total costs of paving the roads with an energy-saving asphalt
material will be examined in relation to the gains that may be achieved. We will
do so from a social perspective, i.e. the economics will be examined from the
point of view of all Danish citizens as opposed to a single driver, whose interest
lies in saving fuel.
A socio-economic approach differs from a personal finance approach in several
ways. Firstly, taxes and duties are not included as they are simply seen as the
transfer of funds between two parties. Secondly, various effects whose value is
not immediately obvious in the market are included. The reason is that certain
things, although they may not have a price, may still be of value to individual
citizens. Thirdly, prices are calculated as market prices in order to reflect the
willingness of consumers to pay. Specifically, this adjustment is calculated by
means of the net tax factor (NTF)
1
and the tax distortion loss.
6.1
Preconditions
The socio-economic analysis has been carried out in accordance with the existing
guidelines already published by the Danish Ministry of Finance (Danish Ministry
of Finance, 1999). The conditions which are expected to be recommended in the
new guidelines soon to be published by the Ministry have, however, been
employed. This means, among other things:
•
•
•
Net tax factor (NTF) of 1.35
Tax distortion factor of 0.2
Real discount rate of 5%
Using the Ministry of Finance guidelines as a basis provides a uniform frame of
reference when the results are assessed in the context of other analyses.
The expected increase in energy prices is a determining factor when it comes to
calculating the value of the fuel saving. Similarly, we need to calculate the value
of environmental effects, i.e. greenhouse gases, SO
2
and NO
x
. Prices are
1
The NTF expresses the average tax level. By adjusting a factor price (price without taxes/duties
and VAT) by the NTF we obtain a market price that reflects the willingness of consumers to pay.
The tax distortion loss is further explained in Section 6.2.2.
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determined on the basis of the conditions stipulated by the Danish Energy Agency
(Danish Energy Agency, 2009).
6.2
Socio-economic gains and costs
The table below sums up the gains and costs of the initiative. The analysis will, as
mentioned in the previous chapter, be carried out as a partial analysis in which we
examine the difference between traditional asphalt and energy-saving asphalt.
Table 6.1: Gains and costs
Gains
Reduced fuel consumption
Fewer emissions of greenhouse gases, N
2
O,
SO
2
and NO
x
Less noise
Costs
Establishment costs
Loss of taxes/duties
6.2.1
Pricing and extent of gains
The energy-saving asphalt leads to a reduction in fuel consumption. It is only the
actual price of the fuel which is included since, as mentioned earlier, duties and
taxes are seen purely as a transaction involving two parties.
Input for the analysis comprises the total fuel saving for every stretch of road. The
total fuel saving is estimated on the basis of the annual average daily traffic
(AADT) on the Danish State road network. The AADT is an average figure, and
lorries are converted to car equivalents. The fuel saving is split into petrol and
diesel based on consumption figures for 2009, with 61% of all engine fuel being
diesel and the remainder petrol.
Table 6.2 sums up the total fuel saving. As may be seen, it would be possible to
save a total of 47.6 million litres of fuel if the energy-saving pavement material
were to be used to pave the entire Danish State road network. This calculation is
based on the entire Danish State road network being repaved during the time
period in question, with the MPD value being 0.6 and the IRI value 0.9. The fuel
saving is calculated in relation to the alternative scenario wherein roads are
repaved using a traditional asphalt material. It has been assumed that the new
traditional asphalt surface has an IRI value of 1.0 for both motorways and main
roads, and an MPD value of 1.0 for main roads. The MPD value for motorways
has been set at the current average of 0.86. The values cannot, therefore, be
directly compared with the fuel savings in Table 4.1 since the savings here were
calculated in relation to actual IRI and MPD values.
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Table 6.2: Total fuel saving for energy-saving surface in relation to new traditional asphalt
surface
Total fuel
Of which petrol, Of which diesel,
Km road
saving, million
million litres
million litres
litres
1,093
25.9
10.1
15.8
Motorways
2,624
21.7
8.4
13.2
Main roads
3,717
47.6
18.5
29.1
Total
Note: Traditional asphalt has an IRI value of 1.0. The MPD value for the new traditional asphalt
surface on main roads is 1.0, and for motorways it is the current MPD average value, cf. Section
5.2.
Since the analysis is not confined to the consequences of establishing an energy-
saving road pavement over a single year, we need to take into account the fact
that fuel prices will not remain constant. The Danish Energy Agency regularly
publishes lists of anticipated future energy prices. The figure below shows the
anticipated development in the price of petrol and diesel up until 2030. The prices
are given in 2010 prices and exclude taxes and duties.
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Diesel
Petrol
2010-DKK/litre
Figure 6.1: Developments in the price of petrol and diesel
Source: Danish Energy Agency (2009)
A reduction in fuel consumption also results in a reduction in the emission of
particles and greenhouse gases. These emissions have a negative impact on health
and the environment, and a reduction is therefore a bonus for society.
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Table 6.3: Reduction in emissions
Scenario 1:
Motorways
25.9
24,273
1,197
266
24,380
166
46,218
Scenario 2:
Main roads
21.7
20,331
1,114
474
20,501
139
30,079
Scenario 3:
All state roads
47.6
44,604
2,311
740
44,882
306
76,297
Fuel saving, million litres
CO
2
, tonnes
Methane (CH
4
), kg
Laughing gas (N
2
O), kg
Greenhouse gases total, tonnes
CO
2
-equivalent
SO
2
, kg
NOx, kg
We can put a price on the value of the reduction in pollution based on official key
figures as replicated in Table 6.4. The emission of CO
2
, for instance, is
independent of fuel type. The same, however, does not apply to methane.
Table 6.4: Emission coefficients
Fuel
Category
Road type
Main road
Motorway
Main road
Motorway
CO
2
kg/GJ
73
73
74
74
CH
4
g/GJ
4.0
3.6
1.9
0.9
N
2
O SO
2
NO
x
g/GJ g/GJ g/GJ
1.7
0.5
108
0.8
0.5
139
2.2
0.5
298
2.0
0.5
320
Petrol
Cars
Petrol
Cars
Diesel
Cars
Diesel
Cars
Source: Danish Energy Agency (2009)
A price is put on the reduction in emissions using key figures from the Danish
Energy Agency as show in Table 6.5.
Table 6.5: Price of externalities
NO
x
outside town
NO
x
in town
SO
2
outside town
SO
2
in town
2010-DKK/kg
53.26
53.26
84.15
128.90
0.11
CO
2
(2010)
0.14
CO
2
(2011)
0.19
CO
2
(2012)
0.24
CO
2
(2013 onwards)
Note: N
2
O and CH
4
are converted to CO
2
-equivalents.
Source: Danish Energy Agency (2009)
On the basis of the above, we can put a price on the value of externalities from
fuel. The value, for instance, of the externalities from 1 litre of petrol is DKK
0.46 in 2010 as seen in Table 6.6. This value is significantly lower than the duty
on a litre of petrol, which currently stands at DKK 4.25 per litre. One reason for
the fact that the duty – which in reality is meant to reflect the value of the
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externalities associated with the consumption of 1 litre of fuel – is markedly
higher than the value of the externalities is that there are other externalities which
cannot be priced in addition to the emission of particles. Examples include noise
and congestion.
Table 6.6: Examples of calculations to find the value of externalities
Fuel
CO
2
CH
4
N
2
O
Greenhouse gases,
total
Emission kg/litre
73 kg/GJ x 0.033 GJ/litre =
2.409 kg/litre
4 g/GJ x 0.033 GJ/litre /1000 =
0.000132 kg/litre
1.7 g/GJ x 0.033 GJ/litre / 1000=
0.0000561 kg/litre
2.429 kg/litre
2.429 kg/litre x 0.11
DKK/kg = 0.27 DKK/litre
Value DKK/litre
SO
2
NO
x
Total
84.15 DKK/litre x
0.0000165 kg/litre = 0.001
DKK/litre
108 g/GJ x 0.033 GJ/litre /1000= 53.26 DKK/litre x 0.0036
0.0036 kg/litre
kg/litre = 0.19 DKK/litre
0.5g/GJ x 0.033 GJ/litre /1000=
0.0000165 kg/litre
0.46 DKK/litre
An increase in traffic means an increase in the total fuel consumption. This means
that the potential fuel saving resulting from the energy-saving road pavement is
also greater. The Danish Infrastructure Commission (2008) has estimated that the
traffic on the Danish State road network will increase by approximately 70% up
to 2030. This corresponds to an annual increase in traffic of 2.2%.
Conversely, there will be a tendency to overestimate the expected fuel saving
since more and more energy-efficient cars point towards a reduction in fuel
consumption. The government is working to increase the energy-efficiency of
cars through the EU. Today, new vehicles are significantly more energy-efficient
than was the case just a few years ago, as may be seen in Figure 6.2. New
vehicles, for instance, will travel 5.5% further on a litre of fuel today than just a
year ago. This, together with the current demand for lighter vehicles that use less
energy, means that the overall energy-efficiency of the fleet is improving all the
time.
For the purpose of this analysis, we have assumed that the potentially greater fuel
saving resulting from the anticipated increase in traffic makes up for the
anticipated improvements resulting from more energy-efficient vehicles. The
analysis presupposes that the current AADT level applies, and that vehicles are as
energy-efficient as they are today.
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Figure 6.2: Energy efficiency of new cars
Source: Statistics Denmark (2009)
Note: In Figure 6.2 the Danish term ‘Km/liter’ is ‘Km/litre’ in English, ‘Husholdningerne’ is
‘Households’ and ‘Erhvervene’ means the ‘Businesses’.
The energy-saving road pavement will be a modified type of the thin noise-
reducing wearing surface, so it may be assumed that the noise-reducing effect will
be considerable. It has been documented that noise has a negative influence on
house prices and on the health of the Danish population. The energy-saving road
pavement gives rise to less noise, and therefore benefits house owners as a result
of an increase in the value of their homes. The data basis in the present analysis,
however, is too shaky for us to include such gains in the calculations. The
negative health effects have been documented, among others, by the Danish
Ministry of the Environment in 2006. The Ministry found that up to 2,200 people
living in Denmark were affected by heart disease every year as a result of traffic
noise, and that up to 500 of those affected died as a result (Ohm et al. 2003).
6.2.2
Pricing and extent of costs
The actual establishment costs for the new road pavement are shown in Table 5.1.
In addition to the establishment costs, we also have to take into account the tax
distortion loss, which arises because the State incurs costs when it finances new
measures by collecting taxes and/or duties. The staff responsible for collecting
taxes and duties, for instance, must be paid. Similarly, the tax distortion loss must
be taken into account in connection with the loss of tax revenues. Since fuel is
subject to taxation, a reduction in fuel consumption will lead to a reduction in tax
revenues for the State.
There is no indication that the costs of maintenance, winter preparedness, traffic
accidents, etc. will be affected by the new type of asphalt as compared with
paving the roads using a traditional material.
It has been assumed that consumers will not change their consumption habits as a
result of a reduction in their fuel budget, so no additional effects have been taken
into account.
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6.3
Results
The two tables below show the annual investments for motorways and main roads
respectively. All costs are fixed 2010 prices and have thus been adjusted for
inflation. Since the expected lifetimes of the two types of road pavement
materials differ, it has been presupposed that 1/15 of the road pavement will be
replaced every year in the case of the energy-saving material, and 1/16 every year
in the case of the traditional material.
If the motorway surfaces were to be replaced with the new energy-saving road
pavement material, then the establishment costs may be divided by 1/15 a year.
This would mean an investment of DKK 130 million a year. Altogether, replacing
all motorway surfaces with the energy-saving road pavement would cost DKK
1,954 million. Since DKK 130 million in 15 years’ time will not correspond to
DKK 130 million in today’s figures, future amounts will be discounted. The sum
of future amounts (present value) indicates the amount to be set aside today for
establishment costs over the period in question. This figure may be converted to
an annual amount (annuity) which indicates the share of the total investment to be
paid every year.
Fuel savings increase gradually as the share of the road network that is repaved
using the energy-saving pavement material increases. Furthermore, the price of
fuel and CO
2
do not remain constant. We must therefore convert the resultant
gains into an annual value (annuity) in order to be able to compare them with the
annual establishment costs. As may be seen in the table below, the annual value
of gains (adjusted for tax losses) from the motorways increases from DKK 11.1
million in 2011 to DKK 240 million in 2025. Total gains for the entire period
amount to DKK 1,112 million. Converting this figure into an annual gain gives a
value of DKK 107 million.
Table 6.7: Establishment costs and annual costs for motorways, million 2010-DKK
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The corresponding results for main roads may be seen in Table 6.8. The total cost
of the energy-saving road pavement is DKK 3,673 million, which corresponds to
an annual value of DKK 245. The corresponding value for the traditional road
pavement is DKK 223 million. The corresponding gains achievable by using the
energy-saving road pavement material compared with the traditional material
amount to DKK 89 million per year as shown in the table below.
Table 6.8: Establishment costs and annual costs for main roads, million 2010-DKK
Since the existing road pavement has a limited lifetime, it will be necessary to
pave the roads using a traditional road pavement material unless the energy-
saving road pavement material is used. This means that the actual establishment
costs for the energy-saving road pavement comprise only the difference between
the establishment costs for the energy-saving material versus the traditional
material. Since the lifetimes of the two types of road pavement materials differ,
we need to compare the annual investments on the basis of their respective
annuities. In Table 6.7, the lifetime of the energy-saving pavement material has
been set to 15 years so that the annual establishment costs correspond to the value
of the annuity. The lifetime of the traditional road pavement material, on the other
hand, has been set to 16 years. Here, the annual establishment costs are lower
than the annuity, which runs for 15 years during the forecast period.
In order to provide an overview, Table 6.9 sums up the total costs and savings
from Table 6.7 and Table 6.8 for the forecast period of 15 years. Table 6.9 shows
that if the establishment costs alone are used as the basis for the calculation, it
would be possible to achieve an annual gain of DKK 12 million by replacing the
surface of the motorways with an energy-saving road pavement material.
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Conversely, using the material on the main roads would involve an annual cost of
DKK 22 million. If we look at the establishment costs for all roads in the Danish
State road network, then the use of the energy-saving road pavement material
would involve an annual cost of DKK 10 million. The energy-saving road
pavement, however, brings about large gains regardless of road type. These gains
will, in all cases, exceed any additional establishment costs associated with the
energy-saving material compared with the traditional material. Paving all the
roads in the Danish State road network with the energy-saving road pavement
material would result in a socio-economic gain of DKK 187 million per year. By
far the greatest share of this gain comes from a reduction in fuel consumption.
Table 6.9: Costs and savings calculated as annuities, million DKK per year
Scenario 1:
Scenario 2:
Motorways
Main roads
Annual establishment
130.3
244.8
costs for energy-saving
road pavement
Annual establishment
142.3
223.0
costs for traditional road
pavement
Additional annual
establishment costs for
energy-saving road
-12.0
21.8
pavement versus
traditional road
pavement
Annual value of gains
Annual socio-economic
gain
107.1
119.1
89.4
67.6
Scenario 3:
All State roads
375.1
365.4
9.8
196.5
186.7
For reasons of method, the above calculation has been carried out such that the
gains achieved by the measure are given as an annual value. The reason is that the
traditional and energy-saving asphalts have different lifetimes. If we disregard
this factor, we can calculate the total socio-economic gains for the entire period.
Over the 15-year period, the present value of the total gains for both motorways
and main roads would amount to DKK 2 billion. Establishing the energy-saving
road pavement as opposed to the traditional road pavement requires an additional
outlay of DKK 100 million, measured as the difference in present value for the
two different establishment costs. In total, the socio-economic gain which may be
achieved by this measure is therefore DKK 1.9 billion.
6.3.1
Sensitivity analyses
It has been assumed, in the analyses, that the price of fuel will rise over time in
accordance with the projections published by the Danish Energy Agency. The
gains to be made from the fuel saving are significant, and sensitivity analyses
have therefore been carried out to show how the result would be affected if the
price of fuel did not rise over time. The price of fuel, in other words, is assumed
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to be DKK 4.3 per litre for petrol and DKK 4.2 per litre for diesel for the entire
period.
A discount rate of 5% has been applied in the analysis. The higher the discount
rate, the less future amounts are weighted. A discount rate of 5% is the rate
currently recommended for use in socio-economic analyses
2
. A sensitivity
analysis has been carried out using a discount rate of 3% and 7% respectively in
order to see how the choice of discount rate affects the overall results.
In the analysis, the value of the reduced emissions was set using key figures from
the Danish Energy Agency. As mentioned previously, using this approach means
that the values calculated for emissions are markedly lower than the current tax
level. At present, the tax on petrol and diesel comprises a tax on CO
2
and a tax on
energy. The applicable tax rates are shown in the table below. The analysis
therefore also examines how the results would be affected if the current tax level
were to be used as an estimate when valuing externalities.
Table 6.10: Tax on energy and CO
2
(2010 level)
Energy tax (øre/litre) CO
2
tax (øre/litre)
Total tax (øre/litre)
388.1
37.3
425.4
Petrol
277.4
41.3
318.7
Diesel
Source: The Danish Ministry of Taxation (2010) and the Danish Tax Panel (2009)
The results of the above-mentioned sensitivity analyses are shown in the two
tables below. As may be seen, the annual socio-economic gains remain positive
whatever parameter is adjusted. A lower discount rate means that future effects
are weighted more heavily, with the result that the annual value increases. The
reverse is true when the discount rate increases. A constant fuel price has the
greatest effect on the results, which are more than halved. The reason is that the
gain to be made from the fuel saving decreases if the fuel price is kept constant
over time. The value of externalities increases significantly if set to be equal to
current tax levels, and this therefore has a positive effect on the results.
Table 6.11: Annual value (million DKK) for motorways when central parameters are
adjusted
Motorways
Difference in relation to reference
-
119.1
Reference
57.8
-61.3
Constant fuel price
126.0
6.8
Discount rate 3%
112.7
-6.4
Discount rate 7%
Value of externalities
161.0
41.9
corresponds to tax
The guidelines published by the Danish Ministry of Finance in 1999 recommend the use of a
discount rate of 6%. These guidelines, however, are currently being revised and a rate of 5% is
expected to be recommended in future.
2
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Table 6.12: Annual value (million DKK) for main roads when central parameters are
adjusted
Main roads
Difference in relation to reference
67.6
-
Reference
47.4
-20.2
Constant fuel price
74.1
6.5
Discount rate 3%
61.5
-6.1
Discount rate 7%
Value of externalities
103.0
35.4
corresponds to tax
In addition to the sensitivity analyses above, we have looked at the effect of a
change in establishment costs for the energy-saving road pavement on the annual
socio-economic gain. The results are shown in the figure below. It has been
assumed that the expenditure associated with the traditional road pavement
remains constant. In the case of the main roads, the cost of the energy-saving road
pavement may be increased by just below 30% before resulting in a negative
socio-economic gain. The increase required for motorways is considerably larger,
namely 120%.
200.0
Million DKK/year
150.0
Motorways
Main roads
100.0
50.0
0.0
70%
-50.0
80%
90%
1
110%
120%
130%
140%
-100.0
Figure 6.3: Significance of a change in establishment costs for annual gain
6.3.2
The Danish Road Directorate’s plan for the operation and maintenance of the
road network
When the Traffic Agreement was reached in December 2009, the parties involved
(the Liberal Party, the Conservative People’s Party, the Social Democrats, the
Danish People’s Party, the Socialist People’s Party and the Liberal Alliance)
agreed that maintenance work on the Danish State road network should be
planned so as to ensure that it will be as inexpensive and financially rewarding for
society as possible in the long term (Danish Ministry of Transport 2009). Table
6.13 shows the total expected funding levels for the operation and maintenance of
the Danish State road network, and the funding available for the paving of roads.
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Only the funding for 2010 to 2013 has been fully approved in the Traffic
Agreement, however. On average, an expected DKK 330 million has been set
aside per year for the next 10 years. The expected annual funding level therefore
corresponds to the value of the fuel savings and environmental effects if the entire
existing State road network were to be repaved using the energy-saving material
rather than the traditional road pavement material (see Table 1.1).
Table 6.13: Annual funding levels for operation and maintenance, million 2010-DKK
Historical 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
964
1,626 1,813 1,358 1,317 1,220 1,257 1,161 1,040 992
Total annual funding
163
664 664 317 298 201 237 236 235
227
Of which, road pavement
Source: Jacobsen (2010)
2019
1,006
221
The scale of the funding means that it would be possible to establish more than
1/15 of the energy-saving road pavement a year. This would mean that the
potential gains may be realised earlier, and that the overall economic gain may be
greater than DKK 1.9 billion (see Section 6.3).
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