Europaudvalget 2016-17
EUU Alm.del Bilag 849
Offentligt
1783256_0001.png
 EUU, Alm.del - 2016-17 - Bilag 849: Kopi af EFK alm. del - bilag 242: Rapport om Green Transport Roadmap 2030 fra Energifonden
1783256_0002.png
 EUU, Alm.del - 2016-17 - Bilag 849: Kopi af EFK alm. del - bilag 242: Rapport om Green Transport Roadmap 2030 fra Energifonden
1783256_0003.png
 EUU, Alm.del - 2016-17 - Bilag 849: Kopi af EFK alm. del - bilag 242: Rapport om Green Transport Roadmap 2030 fra Energifonden
1783256_0004.png
Two scenarios
The study comprises a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and a 30% CO
2
reduction scenario. The BAU scenario assumes that the abovementioned 2020
and 2021 targets are met, but that more stringent targets are not put in place
thereafter. The 30% reduction scenario is based on:
•
•
•
an accelerated phasing in of electric drive vehicles,
increased blending percentages in biofuels for all road vehicles
introduction of biogas (primarily for heavy transport)
All three of the above are relative to a situation without new initiatives.
Among other results from the scenario calculations the roadmap presents the
socioeconomic cost differences between the two scenarios.
Highlights from the analysis
•
•
•
•
Relative to 2005, the BAU scenario entails a 15% CO
2
reduction by
2030, and thus a 15% CO
2
reduction gap.
By 2030, there is an annual net benefit from pursuing a 30% CO
2
emission. That is, relative to the BAU scenario, the price of
reducing CO
2
emissions is negative.
Electrification makes up the main contribution to the CO
2
emission
reduction in the 30% scenario, and impacts the socioeconomics
positively in the later years of the analysis period.
The total amount of biofuels is doubled by 2030 compared to
today with a significant increase in the usage of advanced biofuels
Results
Despite a growing road transport demand, increased vehicle efficiencies and
greater electrification result in CO
2
emissions continuing to fall even in the
BAU scenario, with 2030 emissions being 15% lower relative to 2010.
Additional electrification, a higher degree of efficiency, and the introduction
of more biogas results in the 30% reduction target being met in 2030.
In calculating the CO
2
emissions, all gas is assumed to be biogas (i.e. via
certificates), and all biofuels and electricity are assumed to be CO
2
neutral. Ea
Energy Analysis model calculations estimate an EU average CO
2
content of
roughly 200 g/kWh in 2030, which if included would result in CO
2
emissions
being 3.6% higher.
4 | Green transport roadmap: 30% CO
2
reduction in EU road transport towards 2030
 EUU, Alm.del - 2016-17 - Bilag 849: Kopi af EFK alm. del - bilag 242: Rapport om Green Transport Roadmap 2030 fra Energifonden
1783256_0005.png
1.000
900
Projection
Million tonnes of CO
2
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Target
2015
2020
2025
2030
30% scenario
BAU scenario
Figure 1: CO
2
emissions (million tonnes) from road transport in the EU28 countries
Compared to the situation in 2011, roughly 40% of the CO
2
emission
reductions realised in the 30% scenario by 2030 are due to energy efficiency
improvements of conventional vehicles. Electrification contributes with the
second largest amount (35%), followed by increased consumption of biofuels
(21%) and biogas (3%).
Figure 2: (left) Contributions to CO
2
emission reductions in the 30% scenario by 2030 compared
to 2011 (right) Contributions to CO
2
emission reductions in the 30% scenario in 2030 compared
to the BAU scenario.
When comparing the BAU and 30% scenarios in 2030, the contribution from
electrification is more dominant, as the effect from energy efficiency
improvement is already partially included in the BAU scenario.
5 | Green transport roadmap: 30% CO
2
reduction in EU road transport towards 2030
 EUU, Alm.del - 2016-17 - Bilag 849: Kopi af EFK alm. del - bilag 242: Rapport om Green Transport Roadmap 2030 fra Energifonden
1783256_0006.png
Total energy consumption from EU road transport falls slightly in the BAU
scenario, while it declines to nearly 10 EJ in 2030 in the 30% reduction
scenario, with the sharp decline near the end of the period driven primarily by
increased electrification.
14.000
Projection
12.000
10.000
PJ/year
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
0
Diesel
Bioethanol
Total 30% scenario
Petrol
Electricity
Total BAU
Biodiesel
Biogas
Figure 3: Total energy consumption for road transport in the EU28 countries
The 30% reduction scenario relies on an increasing amount of biofuels,
particularly advanced (2
nd
generation) biodiesel and bioethanol. This leads to
a reduction in conventional (1
st
generation) biofuels over the scenario period,
but nearly a doubling in terms of total biofuel usage.
Biofuel
(mio liters)
1.g FAME
2.g FAME
1.g syndiesel/HVO
2.g syndiesel/HVO
1.g bioethanol
2.g bioethanol
Total:
2014
14,980
-
-
-
5,260
20,240
2020
17,060
1,420
-
-
6,830
580
25,890
2025
14,750
3,030
-
7,390
3,370
5,640
34,180
2030
11,590
4,190
-
13,250
560
9,740
39,330
Table 1: Consumptions of biofuels (million litres) in the 30% scenario
In terms of the cost associated with the 30% reduction scenario relative to the
BAU scenario, socioeconomic calculations were undertaken encompassing
6 | Green transport roadmap: 30% CO
2
reduction in EU road transport towards 2030
 EUU, Alm.del - 2016-17 - Bilag 849: Kopi af EFK alm. del - bilag 242: Rapport om Green Transport Roadmap 2030 fra Energifonden
1783256_0007.png
costs for vehicles, operation and maintenance (O&M), fuels, infrastructure
and distribution, and externalities.
The annual net costs associated with the 30% reduction scenario increases in
the period 2016-2025 and peaks around 2025 at roughly
€5.8
billion, largely
due to the higher upfront cost associated with electric (and to a lesser extent
gas) vehicles.
To put this figure i to perspe ti e, i the ra ge of €
illio
was spent on new passenger vehicles alone in the EU in 2015.
During the later years (2025-2030) of the scenario period, these upfront costs
become neutralised by fuel savings and a reduction in negative externality
costs. The total net present value cost associated with the 30% scenario
relative to the BAU scenario is
€
illio
. It is worth noting that if the
scenario period were extended beyond 2030, then the total net present value
would soon become positive.
250
CO
2
reduction price (Euro/tonne)
200
150
100
50
-
(50)
Figure 4: CO
2
emission reduction costs (Euro/tonne)
The resulting CO
2
shadow price, i.e. the cost of reducing 1 tonne of CO
2
in the
% s e ario relati e to BAU s e ario falls fro o er €230/tonne
today, to
slightly less than zero in 2030.
Method
The analysis involved the formation and evaluation of a 30% reduction
scenario for potential road transport development towards 2030 (with CO
2
emissions reductions relative to 2005) for the EU28. In the scenario, the CO
2
emissions from road transport are reduced by switching from fossil fuels to
renewables and due to increased vehicle energy efficiency. The scenario does
7 | Green transport roadmap: 30% CO
2
reduction in EU road transport towards 2030
 EUU, Alm.del - 2016-17 - Bilag 849: Kopi af EFK alm. del - bilag 242: Rapport om Green Transport Roadmap 2030 fra Energifonden
1783256_0008.png
not take into consideration measures aimed at reducing transport demand or
shifting transport demand from private vehicles to public transportation.
The results are obtained by modelling the EU28 stock of vehicles, energy
consumption and CO
2
emissions, and projecting the development hereof. This
involved:
•
Collecting data on the characteristics of the existing car fleet
(passenger cars, LCV, HDV, city busses and coaches) including the
stock of vehicles, new registrations, age of the existing vehicle fleet,
average weight of vehicles, distribution according to drivetrains,
motor efficiency etc.
Modelling historical energy consumption and CO
2
emissions of the
existing car fleet and calibrating this to the statistical energy
consumption of EU road transport
Projecting future road transport needs and analysing possible
developments in terms of fuel economy, light weighting,
electrification, etc.
Setting up two scenarios: A BAU scenario and 30% reduction scenario
Modelling future energy consumption, CO
2
emissions, and car fleet
compilation, including new registrations
Conducting economic consequence analysis of the two scenarios
•
•
•
•
•
Scenario parameters
The most important parameters for the scenarios were the composition of
new registrations for vehicles, and the biofuel blends. The 30% scenario saw
new registrations of passenger electric vehicles drive vehicles grow to 50% in
2030, with light commercial vehicles (LCV) (40%) and city buses (60%) also
seeing a large growth.
% of 2030 new
registrations
Pure electric
Plugin Hybrid
Gas (biogas)
Diesel
Petrol
Cars
BAU
7.5
7.5
35
50
LCV
BAU
5
5
85
5
HDV
BAU
30%
20
20
5
52
3
100
6
94
City busses
BAU
20
5
75
Coaches
BAU
30%
30%
25
25
2
20
28
30%
30%
60
5
35
0
100
6
94
Table 2: New vehicle registrations in the 30% scenario and BAU scenario (% of new
registrations)
The accelerated electrification of the transport sector in the 30% scenario
entails an increased sale of electric vehicles. By 2030 new registrations would
make up 9 million passenger cars with a total stock of 46 million including
8 | Green transport roadmap: 30% CO
2
reduction in EU road transport towards 2030
 EUU, Alm.del - 2016-17 - Bilag 849: Kopi af EFK alm. del - bilag 242: Rapport om Green Transport Roadmap 2030 fra Energifonden
1783256_0009.png
both battery electric vehicle and plug-in hybrids, thereby corresponding to
18% of the total passenger car fleet.
Electric passenger cars
(1,000 cars)
New registrations
Stock of vehicles
2015
170
360
2020
860
3,350
2025
3,330
14,650
2030
9,050
46,570
Table 3: Number of electric passenger cars (EV + PHEV) in the 30% scenario
In the analysis, biomass blends should first and foremost comply with the
proposed requirements under the EU Winter Package. In the 30% scenario,
these requirements are considered insufficient in order to obtain the overall
target of 30% CO
2
reduction by 2030, and consequently, the biofuel blends
were increased. Methodologically speaking, all other measures, such as
electrification, efficiency improvements of conventional vehicles, and
conversion to gas (biogas), contribute with what was considered to be their
maximum realistic share. Biofuels were then assumed to deliver the residual
CO
2
reduction. However, there exist several restrictions on biofuel blends:
•
•
•
1.g biofuels cannot represent more than 3.8% of total energy
consumption for road transport by 2030 due to EU requirements
The amount of FAME is limited by a blend wall of 7% by volume, i.e.
the diesel engine is not compatible with blends exceeding this
amount.
Not all petrol cars are compatible with high ethanol blends. For bio-
ethanol, it is assumed that the dominant fuel standard is E10 from
2020, while all new vehicles are compatible with an E20 standard
from 2020-2025 onwards. By 2030, all vehicles bought during 2020-
2025 and thereafter, consume E20.
It is assumed that drop-in fuels for diesel can be mixed in unlimited shares
without restricting the diesel engine. This implies that drop-in fuels are
assumed to deliver the residual CO
2
reduction once the other biofuels have
contributed with their maximum within the above-described limits.
The resulting biofuel blending percentages for the two scenarios are
presented in the table below. In the 30% scenario, the total biofuel blend in
diesel is 12.6% in 2030, comprised of 6.5% FAME/RME and 6.1% of 2.g diesel
drop ins.
9 | Green transport roadmap: 30% CO
2
reduction in EU road transport towards 2030
 EUU, Alm.del - 2016-17 - Bilag 849: Kopi af EFK alm. del - bilag 242: Rapport om Green Transport Roadmap 2030 fra Energifonden
1783256_0010.png
Biofuel blends
in 2030
FAME/RME
Diesel drop-ins
(HVO, F-T Syndiesel)
Bio-ethanol
Biogas
Food crops (1.g)
BAU
6%
Advanced (2.g)
BAU
0.5%
Total
BAU
6.5%
30%
4.7%
30%
1.7%
6.1%
30%
6.5%
6.1%
5.9%
0.6%
0.5%
100%
10.4%
100%
6.4%
100%
11%
100%
Table 4: Biofuel blends in 2030 in the BAU and 30% scenarios
10 | Green transport roadmap: 30% CO
2
reduction in EU road transport towards 2030
 EUU, Alm.del - 2016-17 - Bilag 849: Kopi af EFK alm. del - bilag 242: Rapport om Green Transport Roadmap 2030 fra Energifonden
Key References
•
•
A
harmonised Auto-Fuel
iofuel road ap for the EU to
, E TECH,
Biogas og a dre VE ræ dstoffer til tu g tra sport (Biogas a d other re e a le
fuels for heavy transport), Ea Energy Analyses and the University of Southern
Denmark, 2016
CO
2
reduction technologies for the European car and van fleet, a 2025-2030
assess e t , ICCT,
Ele tri Vehi les – Te h ology Brief , IRENA,
Ele trifyi g i sights –
How automakers can drive electrified vehicle sales and
profita ility , M Ki sey,
European
vehicle market statistics
– Po ket ook
/
, ICCT,
.
Europea
otor ehi le par , Europea Auto o ile Ma ufa turers’ Asso iatio
(ACEA), 2014
EU E ergy Bala e “heets , Eurostat, 99
-2014
EU Tra sport i figures –
Statistical pocket
ook
, Europea Co
issio ,
EU Tra sport i figures – “tatisti al po ket ook
, Europea Co
issio ,
EU Tra sport i figures – “tatisti al po ket ook
, Europea Co
issio ,
EU Tra sport i figures –
Statistical pocketbook 20
, Europea Co
issio ,
Eurostat (various databases)
EU Refere e “ e ario
, EU Co
issio ,
Fro La oratory to Road –
A 2016 update of official and real-world fuel
consumption and CO
2
alues for passe ger ars i Europe , ICCT,
Glo al EV Outlook
, IEA,
.
Gov.uk (traffic statistics)
Gree Road ap
, Ea E ergy A alyses,
Mo itori g CO
2
e issio s fro passe ger ars a d a s i
, EEA,
"Monitoring of CO
2
emissions from passenger cars - Data 2015" EEA, 2016
Qua tifyi g the i pa t of real-world
driving on total CO
2
emissions from UK cars
a d a s , Ele e t E ergy & ICCT,
Rammevilkår for gas til tung vejtransport
(Fra e ork o ditio s for gas i hea y
road transport), COWI, 2014
The potential for mass reduction of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in
relation to future CO
2
regulatory requirements
,
Ricardo-AEA, TEPR, & TU GRAZ,
2015
World E ergy Outlook
, IEA,
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
11 | Green transport roadmap: 30% CO
2
reduction in EU road transport towards 2030
 EUU, Alm.del - 2016-17 - Bilag 849: Kopi af EFK alm. del - bilag 242: Rapport om Green Transport Roadmap 2030 fra Energifonden