Forsvarsudvalget 2015-16
FOU Alm.del Bilag 138
Offentligt
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Denmark and the Nordic
Countries’ Interests and Policies in
the Arctic Region
Jon Rahbek-Clemmensen
Assistant Professor, Ph.d.
Center for War Studies, University of Southern Denmark
 FOU, Alm.del - 2015-16 - Bilag 138: Præsentationer fra udvalgets konference "Annual Security and Defence Forum 2016" (NB8+Polen), d. 22. og 23/5-16
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3 overall points
1.
Arctic politics is mainly about low politics issues (SAR,
economic development, environmental protection,
surveillance, oceans management)
2.
The Arctic has largely remained peaceful, even after the
beginning of the Ukraine crisis
3.
Nordic countries work actively to support peaceful status
quo
 FOU, Alm.del - 2015-16 - Bilag 138: Præsentationer fra udvalgets konference "Annual Security and Defence Forum 2016" (NB8+Polen), d. 22. og 23/5-16
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Regional politics focus on
Arctic oceans
Loose order of complimentary
institutions:
•
Arctic Council
•
Arctic 5
•
Euro-Barents Council
•
Etc.
No Arctic great game for
resources
 FOU, Alm.del - 2015-16 - Bilag 138: Præsentationer fra udvalgets konference "Annual Security and Defence Forum 2016" (NB8+Polen), d. 22. og 23/5-16
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Source: NSDIC
 FOU, Alm.del - 2015-16 - Bilag 138: Præsentationer fra udvalgets konference "Annual Security and Defence Forum 2016" (NB8+Polen), d. 22. og 23/5-16
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 FOU, Alm.del - 2015-16 - Bilag 138: Præsentationer fra udvalgets konference "Annual Security and Defence Forum 2016" (NB8+Polen), d. 22. og 23/5-16
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Source: US EIA, based on USGS
 FOU, Alm.del - 2015-16 - Bilag 138: Præsentationer fra udvalgets konference "Annual Security and Defence Forum 2016" (NB8+Polen), d. 22. og 23/5-16
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Source: BBC
 FOU, Alm.del - 2015-16 - Bilag 138: Præsentationer fra udvalgets konference "Annual Security and Defence Forum 2016" (NB8+Polen), d. 22. og 23/5-16
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Reserves in Russian Arctic (estimate)
Potential
reserves (boe)
Oil
Gas
48.000.000.000
258.000.000.000
Share of
potential
reserves
Years of current
annual
production
14 %
13
40 %
67
Source: IEA (2011)
 FOU, Alm.del - 2015-16 - Bilag 138: Præsentationer fra udvalgets konference "Annual Security and Defence Forum 2016" (NB8+Polen), d. 22. og 23/5-16
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Russia acts differently in the Arctic
Scrambles of Russian planes
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
The
Baltics
Norway
20
0
2011
2012
2013
Source: Lithuanian MoD, Norwegian Defense Command
2014
 FOU, Alm.del - 2015-16 - Bilag 138: Præsentationer fra udvalgets konference "Annual Security and Defence Forum 2016" (NB8+Polen), d. 22. og 23/5-16
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Nordic states’ Arctic policies
•
Variations shaped by geography, history, and political culture
•
Some disagreement about regional institutions
•
Agreement that possible to cooperate with Russia in the
Arctic
•
Policies that emphasize maintaining communication,
transparency, common diplomatic and governance activities
•
Further economic development through capacity-building
and regional cooperation
 FOU, Alm.del - 2015-16 - Bilag 138: Præsentationer fra udvalgets konference "Annual Security and Defence Forum 2016" (NB8+Polen), d. 22. og 23/5-16
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 FOU, Alm.del - 2015-16 - Bilag 138: Præsentationer fra udvalgets konference "Annual Security and Defence Forum 2016" (NB8+Polen), d. 22. og 23/5-16
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 FOU, Alm.del - 2015-16 - Bilag 138: Præsentationer fra udvalgets konference "Annual Security and Defence Forum 2016" (NB8+Polen), d. 22. og 23/5-16
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Source: Klimenko (2016)
 FOU, Alm.del - 2015-16 - Bilag 138: Præsentationer fra udvalgets konference "Annual Security and Defence Forum 2016" (NB8+Polen), d. 22. og 23/5-16
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Source: Lasserre et al (2012)
 FOU, Alm.del - 2015-16 - Bilag 138: Præsentationer fra udvalgets konference "Annual Security and Defence Forum 2016" (NB8+Polen), d. 22. og 23/5-16
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Sweden and Finland
Few security interests. Mainly
low politics interests instead:
•
Economic development
•
Environmental protection
•
Minority interests
 FOU, Alm.del - 2015-16 - Bilag 138: Præsentationer fra udvalgets konference "Annual Security and Defence Forum 2016" (NB8+Polen), d. 22. og 23/5-16
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Norway
•Avoid
territorial threat from
Russia
•Protect
economic interests
(energy, fish stocks)
•Participate
in development of
Russian Arctic
•Maintain
current Arctic order
Engaging and deterring
Russia
 FOU, Alm.del - 2015-16 - Bilag 138: Præsentationer fra udvalgets konference "Annual Security and Defence Forum 2016" (NB8+Polen), d. 22. og 23/5-16
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Denmark
•Preserve
political union with
Greenland and Faroe Islands
•Use
Greenland as leverage in
NATO
•Develop
Greenland
economically
•Maintain
current Arctic order
Engaging and deterring Russia
 FOU, Alm.del - 2015-16 - Bilag 138: Præsentationer fra udvalgets konference "Annual Security and Defence Forum 2016" (NB8+Polen), d. 22. og 23/5-16
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 FOU, Alm.del - 2015-16 - Bilag 138: Præsentationer fra udvalgets konference "Annual Security and Defence Forum 2016" (NB8+Polen), d. 22. og 23/5-16
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 FOU, Alm.del - 2015-16 - Bilag 138: Præsentationer fra udvalgets konference "Annual Security and Defence Forum 2016" (NB8+Polen), d. 22. og 23/5-16
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 FOU, Alm.del - 2015-16 - Bilag 138: Præsentationer fra udvalgets konference "Annual Security and Defence Forum 2016" (NB8+Polen), d. 22. og 23/5-16
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