URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival

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Committing to

Child Survival:

A Promise

Renewed

Progress Report 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

September 2015. Provisional version.

Permission is required to reproduce any part of this

publication. Permission will be freely granted to educational

or nonprofit organizations.

Please contact:

Division of Data, Research and Policy, UNICEF

3 United Nations Plaza, New York, NY 10017 USA

Photograph credits

Cover

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Note on maps: All maps included in this publication are

stylized and not to scale. They do not reflect a position by

UNICEF on the legal status of any country or area or the

delimitation of any frontiers. The dotted line represents

approximately the Line of Control agreed upon by India and

Pakistan. The final status of Jammu and Kashmir has not yet

been agreed upon by the Parties. The final boundary between

the Republic of the Sudan and the Republic of South Sudan

has not yet been determined. The final status of the Abyei

area has not yet been determined.

This report, additional online content and corrigenda are avail-

able at <www.apromiserenewed.org>

For the latest data, please visit <data.unicef.org>

ISBN: 978-92-806-4815-7

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Committing to

Child Survival:

A Promise

Renewed

Progress Report 2015

R e n e w i n g

t h e

p r o m i s e

—

i n

e v e r y

c o u n t r y ,

f o r

e v e r y

c h i l d

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

A c k n o w l e d g e m e n t s

This report was prepared by UNICEF’s Division of Data, Research, and Policy in collaboration with the Programme Division

and the Secretariat for

A Promise Renewed.

REPORT TEAM

Core writing team

Policy, Strategy, and Networks Section, Division of Data, Research, and Policy — Emily Garin

Data and Analytics Section, Division of Data, Research, and Policy — Priscilla Idele; Danzhen You; Lucia Hug; Agbessi

Amouzou; Liliana Carvajal Velez; Jan Beise; Simon Ejdemyr; Julia Krasevec; Tom Slaymaker

Health Section, Programme Division — Nina Schwalbe

Secretariat for

A Promise Renewed

— Guy Taylor

Consultant — Chris Brazier

Additional data and analysis support

Data & Analytics Section, Division of Data, Research, and Policy — Robert Bain; Colleen Murray; Khin Wityee Oo; Shahrouh

Sharif; Tyler Andrew Porth; Chiho Suzuki

Design and layout:

Upasana Young

Communications:

Guy Taylor

Editing:

Lois Jensen

Fact checking:

Hirut Gebre-Egziabher; Ami Pradhan

Policy and communication advice and support were provided by Geeta Rao Gupta,

Deputy Executive Director;

Yoka

Brandt,

Deputy Executive Director;

Jeffrey O'Malley,

Director,

Division of Data, Research, and Policy; Paloma Escudero,

Director,

Division of Communication; Ted Chaiban,

Director,

Programme Division; Edward Carwardine,

Deputy Director,

Division of Communication; George Laryea-Adjei,

Deputy Director,

Division of Data, Research, and Policy.

Additional support was provided by David Anthony; Maaike Arts; Yarlini Balarajan; Valentina Buj; Theresa Diaz; Kim Dickson;

Kathryn Donovan; Attila Hancioglu; Karoline Hassfurter; David Hipgrave; Henri Van Den Hombergh; Claes Johansson; Lijuan

Kang; Roland Kupka; Catherine Langevin-Falcon; Ken Legins; Vivian Lopez; Chewe Luo; Craig McClure; Najwa Mekki;

Padraic Murphy; Holly Newby; Rada Noeva; Rebecca Obstler; John Quinley; Kumanan Rasanathan; Hugh Reilly; Dolores

Rio; Katherine Rogers; Sostena Romano; Claudia Gonzalez Romo; Jim Rosenberg; Alyssa Sharkey; Werner Schultink; Tanya

Turkovich; Daniel Vadnais; Rita Ann Wallace; Tessa Wardlaw; Nabila Zaka; Flint Zulu.

Special thanks to Sherin Varkey from UNICEF Afghanistan, Alexandra Westerbeek from UNICEF Ethiopia, Victor Ngongalah from

UNICEF Ghana, Caroline Den Dulk and Gagan Gupta from UNICEF India, Kyaw Aung from UNICEF Malawi, Willibald Zeck from

UNICEF Philippines, Nathalie Lam from UNICEF Senegal, Sudha Sharma from UNICEF Tanzania, Ana Cristina Matos, Cristina

Albuquerque, Jucilene Rocha, Maria Estela Caparelli and Rogério Carlos Borges de Oliveira from UNICEF Brazil and Paulo

Cezar Galvão Pinto from Observatory of Development Indicators — SESI PR in Brazil for their assistance in providing data and

information. Thanks also go to Adrienne Clermont, Yvonne Tam and Neff Walker at the Institute for International Programs, Johns

Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health for carrying out the analyses using the Lives Saved Tool.

Special thanks to UNICEF’s core and thematic donors and to supporters of UNICEF’s data analysis work, including the United

States Agency for International Development, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Committee for UNICEF of

the Republic of Korea.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Contents

6....Foreword

8....Main Messages of the 2015 Progress Report

14....Chapter 1: The progress so far

Global progress

Regional progress

National progress

Acceleration in progress

Lives saved

League table of under-five mortality rates, 2015

26....Chapter 2: The work that remains

Where

under-five deaths are occurring

Who

is most at risk

When

under-five deaths are occurring

Why

under-five deaths are occurring

What

works to reduce under-five mortality

60....Chapter 3: The future we want

Scenarios for child mortality from 2016 to 2030

Realizing equity for child survival

76....Chapter 4:

A promise renewed

Political commitment

Accountability

Social mobilization

Turning

A Promise Renewed

into a promise fulfilled

84....References

86....Tables: Country and regional estimates of child mortality

and causes of under-five deaths

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Ending Preventable Child and Maternal Deaths:

A Promise Renewed

Background

Accelerating progress on

child survival beyond 2015

Since its initiation,

A Promise Renewed

has focused

on promoting two goals: first, keeping the promise of

Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 – to reduce the

under-five mortality rate by two thirds, between 1990 and

2015; and second, continuing the fight beyond 2015, until no

child or mother dies from preventable causes.

To achieve these goals, partners that support

A Promise

Renewed

have committed to five priority actions:

Increasing efforts in the countries facing the greatest

challenges on under-five mortality

Scaling up access to underserved populations

everywhere

Addressing the causes that account for the majority of

under-five deaths

Increasing emphasis on the underlying drivers of

child mortality, such as women’s education and

empowerment

Rallying around a shared goal and using common

metrics to track progress.

In June 2012, the Governments of Ethiopia, India and the

United States of America convened the Child Survival Call

to Action in Washington, D.C. This high-level forum brought

together over 700 representatives from government, civil

society and the private sector to rejuvenate the global child

survival movement. The forum built on the success of the

many partnerships, structures and interventions that already

existed within and beyond the field of health.

Following the Child Survival Call to Action, 178 governments

— as well as hundreds of civil society, private sector and

faith-based organizations — signed a pledge vowing to

do everything possible to stop women and children from

dying of causes that are easily avoidable. We now call this

commitment

A Promise Renewed.

Since 2012, over 30 countries have deepened their

commitments by launching sharpened country strategies for

child survival, further accelerating global progress for children.

Those national strategies are based on the core principles

advocated by

A Promise Renewed:

Fostering political commitment to end preventable child

mortality by implementing sharpened country strategies

for child survival and publicly committing to ambitious,

measurable goals

Strengthening public accountability through improved

monitoring, data and use of tools such as scorecards to

track progress and identify priorities for action

Mobilizing societies and communities to take action on

child survival and to hold governments accountable for

their commitments.

By focusing on these priority actions and core principles,

countries are already achieving progress, bending the curve

on child mortality and moving towards a world where no

mother or child dies from a preventable cause. As we begin

the work of the Sustainable Development Goals, maintaining

this momentum must be our top priority.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Foreword

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Foreword

September 2015

Twenty-five years ago this month, when the Convention on

the Rights of the Child came into force, the world made a

promise to its children. It was a promise to do everything we

could to keep them alive, to keep them healthy, and to help

them realize their full potential.

Fifteen years ago, the world extended these promises

through the Millennium Development Goals. They included

cutting the number of young children dying before their fifth

birthdays, keeping their mothers alive, and tackling diseases

and deprivations that threatened their futures.

And three years ago, we renewed those promises with the

Child Survival Call to Action, which launched the

A Promise

Renewed

movement to end preventable child deaths. Since

then, nearly 180 countries have pledged to make child survival

a priority — and 30 countries have followed this pledge with

sharpened strategies to address child mortality.

This report takes stock of our collective progress towards

fulfilling those promises. Since 1990, the world has cut both the

rate and number of under-five deaths by more than half. Since

2000, we have saved the lives of 48 million children under 5.

These results — achieved in cities and villages, in wealthy

and poor countries, in every region of the world — represent

one of the first great achievements of the new millennium.

It would be tempting to focus solely on these successes —

but they are by no means universal. For while some equity

gaps are shrinking, far too many children still face vastly

different odds of surviving their first five years because

of where they are born or their families’ economic status;

because of their race or ethnicity … their gender … or

because they have a disability.

Consider the progress we have made and the challenge

we face in 2015. We estimate that this year, nearly 3 million

fewer children under the age of 5 will die from infectious

diseases than did in 2000. But, nonetheless, 5.9 million

children under the age of 5 will still die, primarily from

preventable causes. Eleven children, every minute.

Every one of these is a child who has lost her future. Every

one a loss to grieving parents. Every one a child we failed.

To meet our promises to the children of the future, we must

learn from everything the last 25 years have taught us — our

successes and our failures.

What are those lessons?

First, we must not limit our ambitions. We can make

tremendous progress, even in places facing the most difficult

challenges. Countries that were failing to reduce child mortality

in the 1990s are now seeing some of the world’s fastest

declines. And we know that focusing on the hardest to reach

and most vulnerable children can actually be more cost-effective

over time, saving more lives for every dollar spent.

We have learned that better data can show us where those

most vulnerable children are being left behind — even in

countries that have made impressive national gains.

That scaling up simple, proven, cost-effective interventions

can prevent the vast majority of the under-five deaths.

That focusing on reaching mothers and their newborns —

who currently account for 45 per cent of all under-five deaths

— can yield huge gains.

That stronger community-based health systems — linking

critical interventions and services from antenatal care to

immunization to nutrition — can greatly increase our ability

not only to save the lives of more children but to help those

children reach their full potential.

The experience of

A Promise Renewed

has demonstrated

that if we all work together — governments, international

organizations, the private sector, civil society, communities

and families — we can save the lives of 38 million children

over the next 15 years.

As we look ahead to the promises of the Sustainable

Development Goals, the lessons of our successes and our

shortcomings send a clear message: We can shape the

future we want for the world’s children.

Will it be one in which we realize the right of every child to

survive and thrive?

A world in which we honour our promises is one in which

millions more children will live to fulfil their own promise —

to the benefit of us all.

Anthony Lake

Executive Director, UNICEF

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Main Messages of the

2015 Progress Report

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Progress and disparities in under-ﬁve mortality

2015

5.9 million under-ﬁve deaths

45%

Progress

Both the number of under-ﬁve deaths and the rate of under-ﬁve

mortality have fallen by more than half since 1990

1990

of under-ﬁve deaths occur

in the ﬁrst 28 days of life

16,000

700

per day

2015

per hour

per minute

number of under-ﬁve deaths

12.7M

5.9M

per l,000 live births

1990

per l,000 live births

2015

under-ﬁve mortality rate

More than

Progress is accelerating, especially

in sub-Saharan Africa

Annual rate of reduction in under-ﬁve mortality

Global

1.8

3.8

1990s

2000−2015

lower-income countries

have made

faster progress

since 2000

than they did in the 1990s

4 in 5

1.6

4.1%

Despite progress, disparities in child survival remain high

1990s

Sub-Saharan Africa

million children

under age 5 have been

saved since 2000

million of those lives were

saved because of accelerated

progress since 2000

2000−2015

Children from the poorest households are

Children of uneducated mothers are

Children from rural areas are

1.9x

9 out of 10

2.8x

as likely to die

before the age of ﬁve

as children whose mothers

have at least a secondary

education

1.7x

as likely to die

before the age of ﬁve

as children from

urban areas

as likely to die before

the age of ﬁve

as children from

the richest households

under-ﬁve child

Nearly

deaths still occur in low- and lower-middle-

income countries

In sub-Saharan Africa,

children dies before his or her ﬁfth birthday

1 out of 12

dies

Children under-ﬁve in fragile

contexts are nearly

In South Asia,

yet just 6 out of 10 births occur in these

countries

1 out of 19

as likely to die

as children in the

rest of the world

dies

In high-income countries,

1 out of 147

Source: UNICEF analysis based on the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME), 2015.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Main Messages of the 2015 Progress Report

Over the past 25 years, the number of children who die before reaching their fifth birthday has fallen

by more than half. While the world has not achieved the target of a two-thirds reduction in under-five

mortality set out in Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4, falling mortality has saved the lives of 48

million children under the age of 5 since 2000 — an enormous accomplishment.

The progress that has been made — especially the acceleration achieved in recent years — shows

that tremendous advances are possible, even in places with scarce resources and with substantial

burdens of child mortality. Wealth does not have to determine destiny; past performance does not

have to overshadow future potential; the child mortality curve can be bent. The results communicate a

clear message: We can choose a better future for the world’s children.

█

The progress so far

Reductions in under-five mortality have

accelerated in recent years — especially in

some of the most challenging contexts

•

The global annual rate of reduction in under-five

mortality more than doubled, from 1.8 per cent in the

1990s to 3.9 per cent during the 2000–2015 period.

More than four fifths of lower-income countries

achieved faster progress during the period 2000–2015

than in the 1990s.

Progress in reducing under-five mortality in sub-

Saharan Africa has been faster than for the world as

a whole — the annual rate of reduction in that region

increased from just 1.6 per cent in 1990–2000 to 4.1

per cent in 2000–2015.

Between 2000 and 2015, 21 sub-Saharan African

countries reversed an increasing under-five mortality

trend or at least tripled their rate of progress compared

to the 1990s.

Concerted global efforts have led to dramatic

reductions in under-five mortality over the past

25 years…

•

Since 1990, the global under-five mortality rate has

fallen by 53 per cent, from 91 deaths per 1,000 live

births in 1990 to 43 in 2015; neonatal mortality has

fallen by 47 per cent, from 36 to 19 deaths per 1,000

live births.

Over the same period, the number of under-five

deaths per year has declined from 12.7 million to

5.9 million: 16,000 children will die every day in 2015

compared to 35,000 in 1990.

Falling mortality since 2000 has saved the lives of 48

million children under the age of 5.

While the world did not meet the MDG target, every

region in the world reduced its under-five mortality rate

by at least half during the 1990–2015 period.

What is more, 24 out of 81 low- and lower-middle-

income countries achieved the MDG 4 target, reducing

under-five mortality rates by two thirds or more over

the period 1990–2015.

•

… but globally, progress has not been enough to

achieve the MDG 4 target of reducing under-five

mortality by two thirds

•

Only 62 countries have reached the MDG 4 target of a

two-thirds reduction in under-five mortality.

Only two regions — East Asia and the Pacific and Latin

America and the Caribbean — have met the MDG

target at a regional level.

If all countries had met the MDG target, 14 million

more lives could have been saved since 2000.

•

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

█

The work that remains

Despite the gains achieved during the MDG era, 16,000

children under the age of 5 still die every day — 11 every

minute. Between 1990 and the end of 2015, a total of

236 million children will have died before reaching their

fifth birthday. The remaining burden of child mortality is

not evenly shared among or within countries. Enhanced

efforts are needed to drive faster progress, particularly

within the countries, regions and populations where

serious inequities persist.

child in 12 there dies before his or her fifth birthday.

In high income countries, the ratio is 1 in 147

Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia account for more

than 80 per cent of global under-five deaths.

Low- and lower-middle-income countries account for

nearly 9 in 10 under-five deaths worldwide, although

they only account for around 60 per cent of the

world’s under-five population and live births.

Children in fragile contexts face nearly twice the risk

of dying before their fifth birthday as children in non-

fragile contexts.

•

Most under-five deaths are still caused

by diseases that are readily preventable

or treatable with proven, cost-effective

interventions

•

Globally, infectious diseases, prematurity and

complications during labour and delivery are the main

causes of death for children under age 5.

Infectious diseases account for about half of global

under-five deaths.

Forty-five per cent of global under-five deaths occur

during the neonatal period.

Higher rates of under-five mortality reflect

longstanding sources of disadvantage and

persistent inequities

•

Children from wealthier families, urban households

or mothers with at least secondary education stand

a far better chance of surviving their early years than

children from poorer families, rural households or

mothers without education.

Children from the poorest households are, on

average, 1.9 times as likely to die before the age of 5

as children from the richest households.

Children from rural areas are 1.7 times as likely to die

before the age of 5 as children from urban areas.

Children of mothers who lack education are 2.8

times as likely to die before the age of 5 as children

whose mothers have secondary or higher education.

•

While the highest-burden regions have

accelerated progress in reducing under-five

mortality, the burdens that remain are still very

unevenly distributed

•

Sub-Saharan Africa remains the region with the

highest under-five mortality rate in the world. One

•

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

█

What is working

More children are surviving their first days and years of

life thanks to the scale-up of high-impact newborn and

child survival interventions and the strengthening of the

health systems that deliver them. Those health systems

require continued investment in order to maintain and

expand provision of high-quality services to those who

need them most.

THE FIRST 28 DAYS:

The use of proven, cost-

•

Early initiation of antiretroviral medicines for the

prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV

has helped to reduce the estimated number of new

HIV infections among children by nearly 60 per cent

between 2000 and 2014; further efforts are now

needed to ensure that mothers continue to receive

antiretroviral medicines during the breastfeeding

period, where transmission is now more highly

concentrated.

effective interventions can have a major impact

on neonatal deaths, but too few mothers and

newborns are benefitting from them

Antenatal visits and skilled attendance at birth are

crucial for healthy pregnancies, safe deliveries and

neonatal survival. In 2014, 71 per cent of births had

a skilled attendant, compared to 59 per cent in 1990.

Despite this progress, in 2014 about 36 million births

in low- and middle-income countries occurred with no

skilled attendant present.

Infants who are exclusively breastfed have a

substantially lower risk of death from diarrhoea and

pneumonia, yet only two in five babies worldwide are

exclusively breastfed for the first six months of life.

Postnatal check-ups for women who have recently

given birth and their babies can effectively identify

and address many of the most dangerous postnatal

complications, provide nutritional counselling

for mother and baby, and bring about important

reductions in newborn mortality. However, less than

40 per cent of women and just a quarter of newborns

receive a health check within two days of delivery in

least developed countries.

MONTHS 1 TO 59:

Scale-up of high-impact

•

preventive and curative interventions has made

substantial contributions to falling under-five

mortality

Pneumonia-related deaths have fallen, in part thanks

to the rapid roll-out of vaccines, better nutrition and

improved care-seeking and treatment for symptoms

of pneumonia.

Diarrhoea-related deaths are declining in large part

because of improvements in drinking water, sanitation

and hygiene, the roll-out of a rotavirus vaccine and

treatment with oral rehydration salts solutions and

zinc.

Since 2001, prevention, treatment and elimination

efforts have averted an estimated 6.1 million under-

five deaths from malaria; insecticide-treated bednets

are an inexpensive, cost-effective prevention measure

and require further scaling up.

Vitamin A supplementation can reduce child mortality

by nearly a quarter, and integrated child health

events have helped expand the reach of vitamin A

supplementation efforts to roughly two thirds of

targeted children.

•

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

█

The future we want

The final results of the Sustainable Development Goal

(SDG) agenda will not be tallied for another 15 years, but the

decisions that are made now — at the outset of the SDGs —

will determine whether those results will be achieved.

children will be saved. Even more children will be

saved if countries meet the SDG target earlier, which

is possible in some countries.

Greater attention to equity can accelerate

reductions of the remaining under-five deaths

•

In a key group of high-mortality countries (which account

for almost 90 per cent of global under-five deaths), a

quarter of all such deaths in 2015 could be averted if

those countries scaled up coverage of key interventions

to the levels enjoyed by the wealthiest households.

In all countries — including low-mortality countries —

high-quality disaggregated data are key to identifying and

eliminating disparities in child survival.

Reaching the Sustainable Development Goal target

for child mortality* will require faster progress,

particularly in high-mortality countries

•

Over two thirds of low-income countries and more than

a third of lower-middle-income countries must accelerate

progress in order to meet the SDG target for under-five

mortality.

In 79 countries, under-five mortality rates are currently

higher than 25 deaths per 1,000 live births — the SDG

target rate. At current rates of progress, only 32 of

these 79 countries are set to achieve the SDG target

by 2030.

To achieve the SDG target for under-five mortality, 30

countries will need to at least double their current rate of

reduction. Of these, 11 will need to triple their current rate

of reduction.

Even greater acceleration is required to achieve the SDG

target for neonatal mortality.

The countries that need to accelerate progress can be

found in most regions of the world, although West and

Central Africa has the highest proportion of countries

requiring faster progress.

•

The differences between slowing, maintaining or

accelerating momentum on under-five mortality are

stark

•

If levels of under-five mortality for each country remain at

today’s levels, 94 million children under the age of 5 will

die between 2016 and 2030.

If countries’ 2000–2015 rates of decline in under-five

mortality are sustained, more than 25 million of these 94

million children will be saved between 2016 and 2030.

If progress is accelerated to meet the SDG target on

child mortality by 2030, 38 million of these 94 million

•

█

Global commitment, accountability and action

The past 25 years have provided ample

evidence that we can make good on the

promises we have made to children

•

Under the banner of

A Promise Renewed,

nearly

180 countries have signed a pledge committing to

take action to address child mortality; 30 countries

have carried out launches of sharpened child

survival strategies.

Countries have integrated the vision of

A Promise

Renewed

into the heart of the Sustainable

Development Goals, recognizing its essential

ambition in the SDG target on child survival and

building on existing commitments from countries.

The principles advocated by

A Promise Renewed

— political commitment, accountability and social

mobilization — have deepened the impact of efforts

to end preventable child mortality and are key to

realizing the Sustainable Development Goals.

•

The world is rallying around the commitments

set out in the UN Secretary-General’s updated

Global Strategy for Women’s, Children’s, and

Adolescents’ Health, and the Every Woman Every

Child movement, laying a foundation for accelerated

progress.

•

The world has achieved tremendous progress in

promoting child rights in the 25 years since the

ratification of the Convention on the Rights of the Child.

Addressing the sources of inequity that persist in many

contexts will be key to achieving further progress and

bending the curve on child survival. We know what

needs to be done to address under-five mortality. We

must now muster political will, engage communities to

strengthen government accountability, and build global

commitment to achieve the future we want for the

world’s children.

*By 2030, end preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5 years of age, with all countries aiming to reduce neonatal mortality to at least

as low as 12 per 1,000 live births and under-five mortality to at least as low as 25 per 1,000 live births

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

1| The progress so far

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

1 | The progress so far

In 1990, one in seven children in Bangladesh died before the age of 5. Today, that risk has

fallen by nearly three quarters.

Over the course of the past 15 years, improvements in

child survival have helped an additional 1.6 million Bangladeshi children reach their fifth

birthday. This remarkable progress is not an outlier. Bangladesh’s accomplishment is one

among many. In total, 24 low- and lower-middle-income countries including Cambodia,

El Salvador, Georgia, Malawi and Niger have all achieved similarly impressive results —

cutting mortality by two thirds or more.

12.7

mil ion

under-ﬁve deaths in 1990

These successes combine to tell a stunning global story.

In 1990, 12.7 million children around the world died before

reaching their fifth birthday; in 2015, that number has fallen

to 5.9 million children. The world as a whole has cut under-

five mortality by more than half. Since 2000, falling mortality

has saved the lives of 48 million children under the age of 5.

This progress has been achieved in a world that has

increased in population, stared down natural hazards, been

wracked by violent conflict and confronted the scourge of

epidemics. Success in the face of such challenges reflects

both changing behaviours of women and families as well

as the dedicated work of governments, health workers,

communities and their partners across the globe. The most

promising conclusion of the data is the fact that major

strides are being made in many of the places that need

progress most, including low-income countries and the

regions with the highest burdens of under-five mortality.

5.9

mil ion

under-ﬁve deaths in 2015

The remainder of this chapter provides further detail on the advances that have been made in

reducing child mortality since 1990.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Global progress: Worldwide, both the under-five mortality rate and annual

number of under-five deaths have fallen by more than half since 1990

Progress on child mortality from 1990 to 2015

In 1990, global leaders at the World Summit for Children committed

themselves to tackling the quiet catastrophe represented by the deaths

of 35,000 children under the age of 5 every day. A decade later, the world

redoubled its commitment to ending preventable child deaths when the

Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) set a target of reducing the 1990

under-five mortality rate by two thirds by 2015.

Since those promises were made, the global under-five mortality rate

has fallen by 53 per cent, from 91 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990 to

a projected 43 in 2015 (Figure 1A). The infant mortality rate has fallen by

nearly half. Neonatal mortality has declined less steeply than the other

rates, dropping 47 per cent. Over the same period, the absolute number of

child deaths per year has also fallen substantially (Figure 1B).

47%

53%

Decline in

under-ﬁve

mortality rate

(0-59 months)

58%

Decline in

neonatal

mortality rate

(0-27 days)

Decline in

post-neonatal

mortality rate

(1-59 months)

This progress, while remarkable, falls short of the MDG 4 target of a two-thirds reduction in the under-five mortality rate.

If every country had further accelerated progress in improving child survival since 2000 and achieved the MDG 4 target by

2015, an additional 14 million under-five deaths would have been averted between 2000 and 2015.

█

FIG.1

Both the under-five mortality rate and the number of under-five deaths have fallen by more than half since 1990

Global under-five, infant and neonatal mortality rates and number of deaths, 1990–2015

A. Mortality rates

100

Deaths per 1,000 live births

Deaths (in millions)

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Under-ﬁve mortality rate

Infant mortality rate

Neonatal mortality rate

8.9

5.1

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

4.3

3.9

3.4

7.5

6.9

5.9

5.1

3.0

12.7

11.0

9.8

8.3

7.0

5.9

4.5

2.7

B. Number of deaths

Under-ﬁve deaths

Infant deaths

Neonatal deaths

Note: The shaded bands in Figure 1A are the 90 per cent uncertainty intervals around the estimates of under-five mortality rates.

Source: UN IGME 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Regional progress: All regions have cut the under-five mortality rate by at least half

At a regional level, the overall trends are positive, though

progress has varied among regions. Since 1990, every

region of the world has reduced its under-five mortality rate

by at least half (Figure 2). East Asia and the Pacific and Latin

America and the Caribbean each met the MDG 4 target of a

two-thirds reduction in the under-five mortality rate.

█

FIG.2

Every region has reduced under-five mortality by at least half since 1990

Percentage decline in under-five mortality rate by region, 1990–2015

Percentage decline in under-ﬁve mortality rate (1990−2015 )

MDG 4 target: two-thirds reduction

East

Latin CEE/CIS*

Asia & America

the

& the

Paciﬁc Caribbean

South Middle East Other

Asia

& North

Africa

Sub- Eastern & West &

Saharan Southern Central

Africa

World

*Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States

Note: The blue bars show the median estimates and the yellow vertical lines represent the 90 per cent uncertainty intervals around the value. All

regional estimates refer to UNICEF’s regional classification. Sub-Saharan Africa includes West & Central Africa, Eastern & Southern Africa, Djibouti

and Sudan. For further details on this classification please refer to <http://data.unicef.org/regionalclassifications> and page 87.

Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN IGME 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

National progress: Two dozen low- and lower-middle-income countries have met the

Millennium Development Goal target for reducing under-five mortality

Sixty-two countries have met the MDG 4 target for

reducing under-five mortality by two thirds between 1990

and 2015. Among them are 12 low-income countries and

another dozen lower-middle-income countries (Figure 3).

These successes demonstrate that dramatic reductions are

possible even in resource-constrained settings.

While falling short of the MDG 4 target, another 74

countries cut their under-five mortality rates by at least

half. Combined, 70 per cent of the 195 countries with

available data reduced under-five mortality by 50 per

cent or more.

█

FIG. 3

Sixty-two countries met the MDG 4 target of reducing under-five mortality rates by two thirds from 1990 levels

Percentage decline in under-five mortality rate, 1990–2015 and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, by country, 2014

100

Nepal

Bangladesh

Liberia

Malawi

Rwanda

Ethiopia

Uganda

Cambodia United Republic of

Tanzania

Bhutan Georgia

Nicaragua

Timor-

Leste

Yemen

Egypt

El Salvador

Percentage decline in under-ﬁve mortality, 1990–2015

ger

Niger

Madagascar

Eritrea

Mozambique

Kyrgyzstan

Armenia

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

Indonesia

2/3 reduction

Twenty-four low- and lower-

middle-income countries have cut

their child mortality rates by at

least two thirds since 1990

Cambodia

Ethiopia

Eritrea

Liberia

Madagascar

Malawi

Mozambique

Nepal

Niger

Rwanda

Uganda

United Republic

of Tanzania

Armenia

Bangladesh

Bhutan

Bolivia

(Plurinational

State of)

Egypt

El Salvador

Georgia

Indonesia

Kyrgyzstan

Nicaragua

Timor-Leste

Yemen

Under-ﬁve deaths

(in millions)

Low income

Lower middle income

0.2

0.4

Upper middle income

High income

0.8

1.2

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

GDP per capita (logarithmic scale) in 2014

How to read the graph: Each bubble represents a country. The size of each bubble represents the number of estimated under-five deaths in the country in 2015.

Countries above the blue horizontal line achieved a two thirds reduction.

Note: The income classification follows the World Bank income classification, 2015. Details can be found at:

<http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-classifications/country-and-lending-groups>, accessed on 11 July 2015.

Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN IGME 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Acceleration in progress: Declines in under-five mortality rates have accelerated in

recent years — especially in many of the places most in need of progress

The overall gains in reducing under-five mortality have not

come at a consistent pace — global progress in improving

child survival has accelerated in recent years. In the

1990s, the global annual rate of reduction in the under-five

mortality rate was just 1.8 per cent; the rate in 2000–2015

was more than twice that at 3.9 per cent.

Promisingly, progress in reducing under-five mortality in

sub-Saharan Africa – the region with the highest under-five

mortality rate in the world – has been accelerating even

faster than the global average. Its annual rate of reduction

increased from just 1.6 per cent in the 1990s to 4.1 per cent

over the 2000-2015 period (Figure 4).

█

FIG. 4

Progress on reducing under-five mortality is accelerating

Annual rate of reduction in the under-five mortality rate, per cent, by region, 1990–2000 and 2000–2015

Sub-Saharan Africa

Eastern & Southern Africa

West & Central Africa

1.6

1.8

1.4

3.7

4.1

4.9

East Asia & the Paciﬁc

CEE/CIS

Latin America & the Caribbean

South Asia

Middle East & North Africa

Other

2.4

2.5

3.4

5.1

3.9

3.2

3.4

3.9

3.7

4.1

5.2

5.6

1990–2000

2000–2015

World

1.8

3.9

Annual rate of reduction (%)

Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN IGME 2015.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

All but five of the 49 sub-Saharan African countries

had higher annual rates of reduction in 2000-2015

than in the 1990s. Twenty-one sub-Saharan African

countries have at least tripled their annual rates of

reduction from the 1990s, including 10 countries

that had actually been moving backwards during that

time (primarily due to the ravaging effects of HIV and

AIDS) (Figure 5).

█

FIG. 5

Twenty-one sub-Saharan African countries made much faster progress between 2000 and 2015 than

they did in the 1990s

Annual rate of reduction in the under-five mortality rate, per cent, in sub-Saharan African countries with the greatest acceleration, 1990–2000 and 2000–2015

Somalia, 1.6

Lesotho, 1.7

Central African Republic, 2.0

Mauritania, 2.0

Angola, 2.2

Zimbabwe, 2.7

Côte d'Ivoire, 3.0

Namibia, 3.4

Gabon, 3.5

Cameroon, 3.6

Burundi, 4.1

South Africa, 4.1

Botswana, 4.3

Sierra Leone, 4.5

Burkina Faso, 4.9

Swaziland, 5.0

Kenya, 5.2

Zambia, 6.2

Congo, 6.6

Senegal, 7.0

Rwanda, 9.9

-6

-4

-2

Annual rate of reduction (%)

1990–2000

2000–2015

Note: Countries in this figure have at least tripled their rate of progress or reversed an increasing mortality trend in 2000–2015 compared to the 1990s. The increasing or

stagnation trends in1990–2000 in the under-five mortality rate observed for some countries in sub-Saharan Africa can be attributed partly to the impact of the AIDS epidemic.

Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN IGME 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Within sub-Saharan Africa and beyond it, this positive

trend has also been notable in low-income countries.

Twenty-six of the world’s 31 low-income countries have

accelerated progress in reducing under-five mortality

since 2000 (Figure 6) — an important achievement in

countries where the remaining burden of under-five

mortality continues to claim too many young lives. In

addition, two thirds of lower-middle-income countries,

half of upper-middle-income countries and a quarter of

high-income countries reduced child mortality faster in

2000–2015 than they had before.

The trend of accelerated progress in many low- and

lower-middle-income countries demonstrates that nations

are bound by neither their income status nor their past

performance in achieving progress for children.

█

FIG.

More than four in five low- and lower-middle-income countries made faster progress in 2000–2015 than in the 1990s

Annual rate of reduction in the under-five mortality rate, per cent, 1990–2000 and 2000–2015 by country

Annual rate of reduction in under−ﬁve mortality 2000−2015 (%)

ter

gre

sin

000

ce 2

Low income

Lower middle income

Upper middle income

High income

−6

−4

−6

−4

−2

Fas

ter

−2

pro

gre

ss b

efor

200

Annual rate of reduction in under−ﬁve mortality 1990−2000 (%)

Note: The income classification follows the World Bank income classification, 2015.

Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN IGME 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Lives saved: Since 2000, declines in mortality rates have saved the lives

of 48 million children under age 5

The substantial decline in under-five mortality rates since

2000 has saved the lives of 48 million children under

the age of 5. These 48 million children — more than the

current population of Spain — would not have survived

to see their fifth birthday if the under-five mortality rate

from 2000 to 2015 had remained at the 2000 level.

If child mortality had continued to fall along the modest

downward trend that it followed in the 1990s, only about 30

million of those 48 million lives would have been saved. The

other 18 million lives saved were the result of accelerated

progress since 2000 — gains that went above and beyond

those that would have occurred if the rates of decline from

the 1990s had continued from 2000 to 2015.

The vast majority of the 48 million children under age 5

saved due to falling mortality rates over these years are

located in sub-Saharan Africa (47 per cent) and South

Asia (29 per cent) (Figure 7). Of the 18 million lives saved

by accelerated progress, an even greater proportion —

70 per cent — live in sub-Saharan Africa (Figure 7).

Progress in improving child survival over the past

decades has altered the trajectories of child mortality

for dozens of countries and saved the lives of millions

of children. It is one of the most substantial outcomes

of the MDGs and should be celebrated. The lessons

of this success also provide great cause for optimism.

The MDG period has shown that tremendous advances

are possible in places with scarce resources and with

substantial burdens to overcome. These results send

a clear message as the world prepares new plans for

ending preventable maternal and child deaths: We can

choose a better future for the world’s children.

█

FIG. 7

Three quarters of the 48 million under-five lives saved since 2000 were in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia

Number of lives saved by region, 2000–2015 (in millions)

From 2000–2015, 48 million lives saved

South Asia, 14.1

West & Central Africa, 11.5

Eastern & Southern Africa, 10.9 East Asia & the Paciﬁc, 6.9

Latin America &

the Caribbean, 1.6 CEE/CIS, 1.2

Middle East &

North Africa, 2.1

Other, 0.2

18 million of those lives were saved because of acceleration since 2000

South Asia, 2.1

East Asia & the Paciﬁc, 2.4

CEE/CIS, 0.6

Other, 0.0

Latin America & the Caribbean, 0.0

West & Central Africa, 6.4

Eastern & Southern Africa, 5.9

Middle East & North Africa, 0.4

Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN IGME 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

League table of under-five mortality rates, 2015

Africa

Countries and

areas

Angola

Chad

Somalia

Central African

Republic

Sierra Leone

Mali

Nigeria

Benin

Democratic Republic

of the Congo

Niger+

Equatorial Guinea

Guinea

Côte d'Ivoire

Guinea-Bissau

South Sudan

Lesotho

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Mauritania

Burundi

Mozambique+

Togo

Comoros

Zimbabwe

Liberia+

Sudan

Gambia

Djibouti

Malawi+

Zambia

Ghana

Swaziland

Ethiopia+

Uganda+

Gabon

Madagascar+

Kenya

United Republic of

Tanzania+

Eritrea+

Sao Tome and

Principe

Senegal

Congo

Namibia

Botswana

Rwanda+

South Africa

Morocco

Algeria

Cabo Verde

Egypt+

Mauritius

Seychelles

Tunisia+

Libya+

Asia

U5MR

rank

112

120

Europe

UMR

rank

104

110

112

120

125

130

133

139

142

148

153

166

182

Under-five

mortality rate

(U5MR)

157

139

137

130

120

115

109

100

Countries and

areas

Afghanistan

Pakistan

Lao People's

Democratic Republic

Timor-Leste+

Turkmenistan

Myanmar

India

Tajikistan

Yemen+

Uzbekistan

Bangladesh+

Nepal+

Bhutan+

Azerbaijan

Iraq

Cambodia+

Philippines

Indonesia+

Democratic People's

Republic of Korea

Mongolia+

Viet Nam

Kyrgyzstan+

State of Palestine

Jordan

Iran (Islamic

Republic of)+

Saudi Arabia+

Armenia+

Kazakhstan+

Turkey+

Syrian Arab

Republic

Georgia+

Oman+

Thailand+

China+

Brunei Darussalam

Sri Lanka

Kuwait

Maldives+

Lebanon+

Qatar

Malaysia

United Arab

Emirates

Bahrain+

Israel

Cyprus+

Japan

Republic of Korea

Singapore

Under-five mortality rate

(U5MR)

Countries and

areas

Republic of Moldova

Albania

Romania+

Bulgaria

Russian Federation

Ukraine

Latvia

Serbia+

Slovakia

Hungary+

Malta

The former Yugoslav

Republic of

Macedonia+

Belarus+

Bosnia and

Herzegovina+

Greece

Lithuania+

Montenegro+

Poland+

Austria

Belgium

Croatia+

Denmark

France

Germany

Ireland

Italy

Monaco

Netherlands

Portugal+

Spain

Switzerland

United Kingdom

Andorra+

Czech Republic+

Estonia+

Norway+

San Marino+

Slovenia+

Sweden

Finland

Iceland+

Luxembourg+

Holy See

Liechtenstein

Under-five mortality rate

(U5MR)

U5MR

rank

104

112

130

133

139

142

148

153

159

166

182

193

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

League table of under-five mortality rates, 2015

Americas

Countries and areas

Under-five mortality rate

(U5MR)

Oceania

U5MR

rank

104

110

112

120

125

130

133

142

148

153

159

Countries and areas

Under-five mortality rate

(U5MR)

U5MR

rank

104

142

153

166

2525

Haiti

Guyana

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)+

Dominican Republic

Guatemala

Ecuador

Nicaragua+

Dominica

Paraguay

Suriname

Honduras

Trinidad and Tobago

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

Belize

El Salvador+

Panama

Peru+

Brazil+

Colombia

Jamaica

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

Saint Lucia

Argentina

Barbados

Mexico+

Bahamas

Grenada

Saint Kitts and Nevis

Costa Rica

Uruguay

Antigua and Barbuda+

Chile

United States

Cuba

Canada

Papua New Guinea

Kiribati

Marshall Islands

Micronesia (Federated

States of)

Nauru

Solomon Islands

Vanuatu

Tuvalu

Niue

Fiji

Samoa

Tonga

Palau

Cook Islands+

New Zealand

Australia

DEFINITIONS OF INDICATORS

Under-five mortality rate (U5MR) — Probability of dying between birth and exactly five years of age, expressed per 1,000 live births.

U5MR rank: Countries and areas are ranked in descending order of their U5MRs.

EXPLANATION OF SYMBOLS

+ Met the MDG 4 target for reducing the under-five mortality rate by two thirds between 1990 and 2015 based on the point estimate.

– Data are not available

Source: UN IGME 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

2| The work that remains

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

2 | The work that remains

As the MDG era gives way to a new global agenda and an even more ambitious target for

reducing child mortality, it is time to take stock of the work still to be done. Even with the

progress made in reducing under-five deaths during the MDG period, between 1990 and the

end of 2015, a total of 236 million children will have died before reaching their fifth birthday.

This number is staggering — more than the current population of Brazil, the world’s fifth most

populous country. About 16,000 children under the age of 5 still die every day.

The remaining burden of child mortality is not evenly shared among nations or among

communities and households. Disparate starting points and uneven progress mean that special

focus is needed in certain areas and among certain demographics. This chapter outlines the

characteristics of the under-five deaths that remain to be tackled.

Where

under-five deaths are occurring: Despite progress, sub-Saharan

Africa, South Asia, lower-income countries and fragile contexts still bear

the heaviest burdens of under-five mortality

5.9

mil ion

16,000

per day

700

per hour

per minute

under-ﬁve deaths in 2015

Over the course of 2015, an estimated 5.9 million

children will die before they reach the age of 5. These

deaths are heavily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa

and South Asia, lower-income countries and in fragile

contexts. These concentrations of high under-five

mortality underscore the stark reality that a child’s

place of birth has a profound effect on his or her

chances of survival.

Large disparities in under-five mortality rates

continue to separate countries and regions

In sub-Saharan Africa, 1 child in 12 dies before his or

her fifth birthday; in the world’s high-income countries,

that ratio is 1 in 147 A child born in the highest under-

five mortality country faces about 80 times the risk

of dying before age 5 as her or his counterpart in the

lowest mortality country.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

While the highest-burden regions have accelerated

progress in reducing under-five mortality, the burden that

remains is still very unevenly distributed (Figure 8).

Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia account for more than

80 per cent of the total under-five deaths that will occur

over the course of 2015 (Figure 9).

█

FIG. 8

Accelerated progress in reducing under-five mortality in high-burden regions has not eliminated major

regional disparities

Under-five, infant and neonatal mortality rate by region, 1990–2015

200

180

160

Under-ﬁve mortality rate

Infant mortality rate

Neonatal mortality rate

Deaths per 1,000 live births

140

120

100

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

West &

Central Africa

Eastern &

Southern Africa

South Asia

Middle East

& North Africa

East Asia

& the Paciﬁc

CEE/CIS

Latin America

& the Caribbean

Other

Source: UN IGME 2015

█

FIG. 9

Four in five deaths in children under 5 occur in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia

Under-five deaths by region, 2015, in millions (percentage share of global deaths)

South Asia

1.9, (31%)

Eastern &

Southern Africa

1.1, (18%)

Middle East

& North Africa

0.3, (5%)

CEE/CIS, 0.1, (2%)

West & Central

Africa

1.8, (30%)

East Asia

Latin

& the

America

Paciﬁc

& the

0.5,(9%) Caribbean

0.2, (3%)

Other, 0.1, (1%)

Note: Estimates are rounded and therefore may not total 100 per cent.

Source: UN IGME 2015

2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

These two regions are also home to most of the

highest-mortality countries in the world. The seven

countries with an under-five mortality rate above

100 are all located in sub-Saharan Africa, heavily

concentrated in West and Central Africa (Figure 10).

█

FIG. 10

The highest national under-five mortality rates are found in sub-Saharan Africa

Under-five mortality rate and under-five deaths by country, 2015

Ten countries with the highest under-five mortality rate in 2015

Country

Angola

Chad

Somalia

Central African Republic

Sierra Leone

Mali

Nigeria

Benin

Democratic Republic

of the Congo

Niger

Ten countries with the highest number of under-five deaths in 2015

Country

India

Nigeria

Pakistan

Democratic Republic

of the Congo

Ethiopia

China

Angola

Indonesia

Bangladesh

United Republic of

Tanzania

Under-five mortality rate

(deaths per 1,000 live births)

157

139

137

130

120

115

109

100

Under-five deaths

(in thousands)

1201

750

432

305

184

182

169

147

119

Share of global

under-five deaths

20%

13%

This map does not reflect a position by UNICEF on the legal status of any country or territory or the delimitation of any frontiers. The dotted line represents approximately the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir agreed upon by India and

Pakistan. The final status of Jammu and Kashmir has not yet been agreed upon by the parties. The final boundary between the Sudan and South Sudan has not yet been determined. The final status of the Abyei area has not yet been determined.

Note: The number of under-five deaths is affected by not only the under-five mortality rates but also the under-five population in a country.

Source: UN IGME 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Despite progress, nearly 9 out of 10 under-five

deaths still occur in low- and lower-middle-

income countries

A child born in a low-income country is, on

average, 11 times as likely to die before the age

of 5 as a child in a high-income country (Figure

11). Although two dozen low- and lower-middle-

income countries have met the MDG 4 target,

as a whole, lower-income countries still have far

higher under-five mortality rates than high-income

countries.

█

FIG. 11

Despite progress, under-five mortality rates are still far higher in low-income countries than in high-income

countries

Under-five mortality rates (vertical axis) and number of deaths (bubble size) by income level, 1990 and 2015

200

Rate: 187

Deaths: 2.6

1990

2015

Under-ﬁve deaths

(in millions)

1.0

Deaths per 1,000 live births

150

Rate: 120

Deaths: 7.2

3.0

100

Rate: 55

Deaths: 2.7

Rate: 76

Deaths: 1.7

Rate: 53

Deaths: 3.5

Rate: 16

Deaths: 0.3

Rate: 19

Deaths: 0.7

Low

income

Lower middle

income

Upper middle

income

Rate: 7

Deaths: 0.1

High

income

Note: The vertical axis refers to the under-five mortality rate and the size of the bubble is proportional to the number of under-five deaths.

Source: UN IGME 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Low- and lower-middle-income countries account for an

overwhelming and disproportionate share of the world’s

under-five deaths — 87 per cent of the 5.9 million under-five

deaths worldwide occur in these countries, yet they account

for only about 60 per cent of the world’s under-five population

and of the world’s live births (Figure 12).

█

FIG. 12

A disproportionate share of under-five deaths still occurs in low- and lower-middle-income countries

Number of under-five deaths, under-five population and live births by income level (percentage share of global total), 2015

Under-ﬁve deaths

1.7, (28%)

3.5, (59%)

0.7, (11%)

0.1, (2%)

Under-ﬁve population

101.5, (15%)

315.1, (47%)

172.6, (26%)

79.7, (12%)

Live births

22.8, (16%)

Low income

66.8, (48%)

Lower middle income

34.8, (25%)

Upper middle income

16.0, (11%)

100

High income

Note: The first number cited for each income level refers to the number of under-five deaths in 2015 (in millions), under-five population (in millions) and live births (in millions); the

second is the share by income level of under-five deaths, under-five population and live births.

Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN IGME 2015 and United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2015

Revision, United Nations, New York, 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Under-five mortality in fragile contexts

is nearly

twice as high as in the rest of the world

Reducing child mortality in fragile contexts can be especially

challenging. Violence, political instability and volatile economic

conditions can all undermine essential components of the

health systems necessary to reduce child deaths. Despite

these challenges, the group of countries that the World Bank

currently considers fragile has reduced under-five mortality by

47 per cent since 1990. This lags behind the average decline of

56 per cent in non-fragile contexts, demonstrating part of the

cost of fragility for children. This gap in progress has widened

the disparities between children in fragile versus non-fragile

contexts: Today, the risk of death for a child in a fragile context

is nearly twice as high as the risk she or he would face in a

non-fragile context (Figure 13). Among the 20 countries with

the highest under-five mortality rates in the world, 10 appear

on the World Bank’s list of fragile situations.

The regions, low-income countries and fragile contexts

highlighted in this section provide a clear map of the

places where concentrated attention will be needed

in the continuing drive to eliminate preventable child

deaths. The world’s recent experience in tackling the

Ebola crisis has shown that many of the gains that

have occurred in challenging contexts are themselves

fragile. In countries where the ratio of health workers

to the total population was already insufficient, the

epidemic took a direct toll on health workers’ lives

and disrupted both community- and facility-based

services. Supply chains were interrupted and disease

surveillance mechanisms failed.

This crisis and other

experiences have shown that to sustain the gains that

have been made, it will be essential not only to maintain

coverage of proven, high-impact interventions, but

also to strengthen the health systems and workforces

necessary to implement them.

█

FIG. 13

Children in fragile contexts face nearly twice the risk of dying before age 5 as children in non-fragile contexts

Under-five mortality rates for fragile and non-fragile countries, 1990 and 2015

160

140

120

Deaths per 1,000 live births

100

146

Fragile

Non-fragile

1990

2015

Note: Countries included in this analysis are only those in the seven geographically defined UNICEF regions listed on page 87.

Source: UNICEF analysis based on UN IGME 2015 and World Bank 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Who

is most at risk: Higher rates of under-five mortality in some groups

reflect longstanding sources of disadvantage and persistent inequities

Inequalities take their toll over the course of an entire

childhood, but they are manifest from the very beginning:

The chance that a child will survive her first days, months and

years of life is dramatically shaped by the family and situation

into which she is born.

mortality rates in the world’s rural areas. On average,

rural under-five mortality rates are 1.7 times those in

urban areas.

This gap requires ongoing policy attention.

At the same time, looking only at rural and urban

averages may inadvertently mask important disparities

found within urban areas. The rapid rise in urbanization

and, in particular, urban slums in many high-mortality

countries makes it likely that there are wide but not well

quantified gaps between the richest and the poorest

in urban areas. Improvements in disaggregated urban

data are needed to fully assess the extent of intra-urban

inequities in child mortality.

Children from the poorest households are, on

average, nearly twice as likely to die before the age

of 5 as children from the richest households

As in many other aspects of their lives, children in the poorest

households are at a significant disadvantage when it comes to

surviving their early years (Figure 14). On average, under-five

mortality rates are 1.9 times as high for the poorest households

as they are for the richest.

While the gaps between rich and

poor are still unacceptably wide, the data show that in many

regions, the poorest households have witnessed greater

declines in under-five mortality than the richest.

Children of mothers who lack education are

2.8 times as likely to die before the age of 5 as

children whose mothers have secondary or higher

education

A mother’s level of education has a powerful influence

on her children’s chances of surviving their early years.

Children born to mothers with no formal education are,

on average, 2.8 times as likely to die before their fifth

birthdays as the children of women with secondary or

higher education.

Children from rural areas are 1.7 times as likely to die

before the age of 5 as children from urban areas

The rural-urban divide in access to health facilities and many

basic health interventions is reflected by higher under-five

█

FIG. 14

Children from poor, rural or low-maternal-education households are much more likely die before their

fifth birthday

Under-five mortality rate by mother's education, wealth and residence, 2005-2010

By household wealth quintile

200

By education

200

By residence

Favouring rural

Under-ﬁve mortality rate of children born in

the richest households

(deaths per 1,000 live births)

Under-ﬁve mortality rate of children born to

mothers with secondary or higher education

(deaths per 1,000 live births)

Favouring less educated

Favouring poor

Under-ﬁve mortality rate of children

born in urban areas

(deaths per 1,000 live births)

150

100

uit

100

uit

100

uit

Favouring more educated

100

150

200

100

Favouring rich

150

200

Favouring urban

100

150

200

Under-ﬁve mortality rate of children

born to mothers with no education

(deaths per 1,000 live births)

Under-ﬁve mortality rate of children

born in the poorest households

(deaths per 1,000 live births)

Under-ﬁve mortality rate of children

born in rural areas

(deaths per 1,000 live births)

Figure 14 reflects the disadvantages faced by children from poor families, rural households or mothers without education. The line through the centre of

each figure shows what an equal distribution of under-five deaths between the two groups would look like. The further a point departs from the line, the

more unequal the distribution of risk between the two categories. The heavy grouping of nearly all the points below the diagonal line makes clear what

the data above describe: Children from wealthier families, urban households or mothers with at least secondary education stand a far better chance of

surviving their early years than children from poorer families, rural households or mothers without education.

Note: Each dot represents one country. Data from surveys with the most recent reference year since 2005 are shown for 46 countries for education, 50 for wealth and 68

countries for place of residence.

Source: UNICEF analysis based on Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) and other nationally representative sources

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

The number of countries with significant gender-

based gaps in child mortality has fallen by more

than half

Notable gender gaps in child mortality persist in some

countries — primarily located in South Asia and the Middle

East — where girls’ risk of dying before age 5 is significantly

higher than would be expected based on global patterns.

The number of countries showing these disparities fell by

more than half between 1990 and 2015, from 20 to 9. The

remaining mortality gender gaps require urgent investigation

to identify and address their causes.

Tackling the inequitable distribution of child mortality in

the coming years will require attention to issues that

go far beyond the narrow confines of technical health

solutions. The post-2015 agenda includes many of the

necessary components for addressing disparities and social

determinants of health — emphasis on poverty reduction,

sustainable urbanization and education for all — but will

require sustained investments and political commitment to

make lasting change. Continuing progress on reducing under-

five mortality will require ever-increasing focus on the most

disadvantaged children and communities — those most likely

to be missed by one-size-fits-all approaches.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

When

under-five deaths are occurring: In most regions, success in

tackling later childhood diseases means a larger share of under-five

deaths is now in the neonatal period

As global rates of under-five mortality have fallen,

neonatal deaths now account for a rising proportion

of the remaining burden of under-five deaths. In 1990,

neonatal deaths represented 40 per cent of global under-

five deaths, compared with 45 per cent today. Of the

estimated 5.9 million child deaths in 2015, almost 1 million

occur in the first day of life and close to 2 million take

place in the first week.

This shift in the concentration of deaths generally reflects

success in tackling the infectious diseases that kill children

after infancy (confirmed by the causes of mortality data

outlined in the following section) and the slower decline in

reducing neonatal mortality rates than mortality in children

aged 1–59 months. In most regions with lower under-five

mortality rates, deaths are more concentrated among

newborns. In the two regions of sub-Saharan Africa that

still have the world’s highest under-five mortality rates,

deaths in the neonatal period make up a smaller portion of

total under-five deaths (Figure 15).

South Asia is a notable exception to this pattern. It has

both the highest proportion of neonatal deaths and

one of the highest overall under-five mortality rates.

Given South Asia’s under-five mortality level, neonatal

mortality there is considerably higher than expected

relative to the global pattern. Limited availability of

high-quality data — especially around certified causes

of death — makes analysis of the underlying causes of

these disparate results challenging.

█

FIG. 15

In most regions, lower child mortality overall comes with a higher concentration of mortality in the neonatal period

Distribution of under-five deaths by age, 2015

Sub-Saharan Africa

West & Central Africa

Eastern & Southern Africa

35%

33%

38%

South Asia

East Asia & the Paciﬁc

Middle East & North Africa

Latin America & the Caribbean

CEE/CIS

Other

50%

57%

53%

52%

55%

World

45%

100

Neonatal deaths (0–27 days)

Post-neonatal under-ﬁve deaths (1–59 months)

Source: UN IGME 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Why

under-five deaths are occurring: While many leading causes of under-

five mortality remain the same, infectious diseases now account for a smaller

overall percentage of child deaths than they did 15 years ago

Renewing the promise of survival for children relies on

tracking and addressing the leading causes of death.

Understanding the causes of child mortality is key to

designing appropriate intervention strategies to save

children's lives.

meningitis, tetanus, measles, sepsis and AIDS.

Globally, the main killers of children under age 5 in

2015 were pneumonia (16 per cent), preterm birth

complications (16 per cent), neonatal intrapartum-related

complications (11 per cent), diarrhoea (9 per cent),

neonatal sepsis (7 per cent) and malaria (5 per cent)

(Figure 16).

Most deaths of children under age 5 are caused by

diseases that are readily preventable or treatable with

proven, cost-effective interventions. Children’s lives can

and must be saved through immediate action to increase

effective preventive and curative interventions.

Infectious diseases and neonatal complications

are responsible for the vast majority of under-

five deaths around the world

Of the 5.9 million under-five deaths in 2015, almost

half were caused by leading infectious diseases and

conditions such as pneumonia, diarrhoea, malaria,

LOOKING BEYOND MEDICAL CAUSES: INEQUITY AS A FACTOR IN CHILD DEATHS

While each child’s death can be attributed to a medical cause, the question of why

children are dying cannot be answered through medical explanations alone.

Many factors that increase a child’s risk of early death — including

low maternal education, early childbearing, limited access to water,

sanitation and hygiene, and undernutrition — have been discussed in

A Promise Renewed

reports. These and other factors play a

substantial role in shaping children’s chances of surviving their early days

and years.

These risk factors, like child mortality itself, do not affect all children

equally. Families in rural areas are less than half as likely to have piped

*UNICEF. 2015. A Fair Chance for Every Child

water at home as families in urban areas. Children in conflict-affected

countries are more likely to be out of school than their counterparts in

countries not affected by conflict. Children from the poorest families are

more than twice as likely to be stunted as children from the wealthiest.*

The list goes on, but the conclusion is clear: Children are dying not just

because of sepsis, malaria or other official causes of death listed here.

They are also dying because the families they are born into are poor, from

a historically marginalized group, live in a rural area, or suffer other forms

of social exclusion. Ending preventable childhood deaths will require

tackling not only the official causes of death, but also the inequities that

make some children more likely to fall victim to them.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

█

FIG. 16

Pneumonia, diarrhoea and malaria are main killers of children under age 5; preterm birth and intrapartum-

related complications are responsible for the majority of neonatal deaths

Global distribution of deaths among children under age 5 and among newborns, by cause, 2015

A. Deaths among children under age 5

Pneumonia (neonatal), 3%

Pneumonia

(post-neonatal), 13%

Preterm birth

complications, 16%

Other, 17%

Intrapartum-related

complications, 11%

45% of all

under-ﬁve deaths

occur in the

neonatal period

Measles, 1%

AIDS, 1%

Meningitis and

Pertussis, 3%

Injuries, 6%

Malaria, 5%

Diarrhoea (post-

neonatal), 9%

Diarrhoea

(neonatal), 0%

Sepsis, 7%

Tetanus, 1%

Congenital

abnormalities, 5%

Other neonatal, 3%

Nearly half of all deaths in children under age 5 are attributable to undernutrition

Deaths among newborns (0-27 days)

Sepsis

Preterm birth complications Intrapartum-related complications

Congenital abnormalities

Pneumonia Tetanus

Diarrhoea

Other

100

15%

35%

24%

11%

Note: Estimates are rounded and therefore may not sum up to 100%.

Source: WHO and Maternal and Child Epidemiology Estimation Group (MCEE) provisional estimates 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Causes of under-five deaths vary between low-

and high-mortality regions

The leading causes of under-five deaths vary between

high- and low-mortality groupings and among high-

mortality regions. In very-low-mortality countries (with

an under-five mortality less than 10 deaths per 1,000

live births in 2015), infectious diseases are not the main

causes of death for children under 5. In those countries,

pneumonia, diarrhoea, malaria, sepsis, pertussis, tetanus

and meningitis, measles and AIDS together only account

for 10 per cent of all under-five deaths (Figure 17).

In higher-mortality regions, however, these key infectious

diseases still kill many children under age 5, accounting for

39 per cent, 54 per cent and 47 per cent of all under-five

deaths in South Asia, West and Central Africa, and Eastern

and Southern Africa, respectively. Pneumonia and diarrhoea

remain leading causes of death in the three regions with the

highest under-five mortality in the world — West and Central

Africa (accounting for 17 per cent and 10 per cent of all under-

five deaths, respectively), Eastern and Southern Africa (17

per cent and 10 per cent, respectively) and South Asia (15 per

cent and 9 per cent, respectively).

Malaria remains a major killer in sub-Saharan Africa,

especially in West and Central Africa, where it accounts

for 13 per cent of under-five deaths; in Eastern and

Southern Africa, malaria accounts for 5 per cent of under-

five deaths. Malaria is also one of the most geographically

concentrated causes of child mortality — 96 per cent of

all malaria deaths occur in sub-Saharan Africa. The high

proportion of deaths from preventable and readily curable

infectious diseases suggests that there is a substantial

amount of work to be done in these regions to increase

coverage of proven interventions.

█

FIG. 17

Infectious diseases remain the main killers of children under age 5 in sub-Saharan Africa

Distribution of deaths among children under age 5 by cause, by region, 2015

West & Central Africa

17%

15%

0% 0%

10%

0.4%

13%

27%

44%

24%

22%

26%

18%

39%

Eastern & Southern Africa

South Asia

Very-low-mortality countries*

4% 1% 3%

3% 2%

0.2%

51%

Diarrhoea

Sepsis

Malaria

Pertussis,

tetanus,

meningitis

Measles

AIDS

Other causes

at neonatal age

100

Other causes

at post-neonatal age

Pneumonia

*Very-low-mortality countries are those with an under-five mortality rate of less than 10 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2015.

Note: : Estimates are rounded and therefore may not sum up to 100%.

Source: WHO and MCEE provisional estimates 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

As discussed earlier, based on global trends, South

Asia’s neonatal deaths account for a larger than

expected share of its overall under-five deaths. The

neonatal share of under-five deaths more closely

resembles the proportion in very-low-mortality

countries but has its origin in unusually high neonatal

mortality rates. Among non-neonatal deaths, South

Asia’s proportion of deaths from major killers such as

diarrhoea and pneumonia are similar to those in other

high-mortality regions, suggesting that there, too,

increased coverage of proven interventions could make

a noticeable impact on under-five deaths. The potential

impact of scaling up coverage of basic interventions is

analysed in more detail in the equity analysis provided in

Chapter 3.

Seventy per cent of the global decline in under-

five deaths since 2000 is attributable to tackling

key infectious diseases

Between 2000 and 2015, the annual number of under-five

deaths fell from almost 10 million to 5.9 million. This progress

did not come evenly across all causes of under-five death.

It was driven by steep declines in deaths from leading

infectious diseases (Figure 18).

Although infectious diseases still cause a large — and largely

preventable — portion of child mortality, the annual number of

under-five deaths from leading infectious diseases declined from

5.4 million to 2.5 million over the last 15 years. In 2015, nearly

4 million fewer children under 5 will die from all causes than

in 2000. About seventy per cent of that decline is the result of

lower death tolls from pneumonia, diarrhoea, malaria, sepsis,

pertussis, tetanus, meningitis, measles and AIDS.

█

FIG. 18

Almost 3 million fewer children under 5 died of key infectious diseases in 2015 than in 2000

Under-five deaths by leading infectious diseases, 2000 and 2015 (in millions)

2000

Pneumonia

Percentage decline

1.7

2015

0.9

0.5

Diarrhoea

1.2

0.7

0.5

0.2

Malaria

0.3

0.4

0.2

0.1

Sepsis

Pertussis, tetanus, meningitis

Measles

AIDS

Source: WHO and MCEE provisional estimates 2015

0.1

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Faster declines in under-five mortality due to leading

infectious diseases versus those from other causes

mean that leading infectious diseases now account for

a much smaller portion of the under-five deaths that

remain. In 2000, leading infectious diseases accounted

for 54 per cent of global under-five deaths; those same

diseases accounted for 43 per cent of under-five deaths

in 2015 (Figure 19).

This progress in the fight against infectious diseases

implies two important directions for future efforts to

reduce under-five mortality. First, continued efforts will

be necessary to sustain these gains. Second, the large

declines in infectious diseases signal that continued

progress in reducing under-five deaths may require greater

attention to non-infectious killers, especially during the

neonatal period.

█

FIG. 19

Leading infectious diseases now account for a smaller proportion of global under-five deaths than in 2000

Global distribution of deaths of children under age 5, by cause, 2000 and 2015

2000

17%

12%

5% 2%

29%

17%

2015

16%

3% 1% 1%

35%

23%

100

Pneumonia

Diarrhoea

Sepsis

Malaria

Pertussis, tetanus, meningitis

Measles

AIDS

Other neonatal causes

Others

Source: WHO and MCEE provisional estimates 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

What

works to reduce under-five mortality: Strengthened health

systems are delivering more, higher-quality, high-impact interventions

While global numbers tell the impressive story of recent

progress in reducing child mortality, those numbers do not

reveal the extraordinary efforts that have made progress

possible. Since 2000, 48 million more children saw their fifth

birthday because of 15 years of work in cities and in rural

villages, because of commitments from governments and

communities alike. Those children survived in part because

of the scale-up of high-impact newborn and child survival

interventions. They also survived because health systems

and health professionals were better at reaching them with

those interventions.

This section provides updated data on coverage of some

of the most effective interventions. While progress is most

often tracked at the intervention level, sustained progress

requires more than isolated interventions. Interventions

are part of larger systems of care — systems that require

continued investment and strengthening in order to maintain

and expand high-quality services to the families that need

them most.

As some lower-income countries with strong health systems

outperform some higher-income countries with weaker

systems, there is growing recognition that strong health

systems can be a more decisive factor for child mortality

than national income. These system-level dimensions are not

readily apparent in the data but play a vital role in ongoing

efforts to help children survive and thrive.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

What works to reduce under-ﬁve mortality

The ﬁrst 28 Days

59%

In 2014

In 1990

of births had

a skilled attendant

Proven cost-effective interventions can prevent most neonatal deaths,

but too few mothers and newborns are beneﬁtting from them

36 million

births occurred

in low- and

middle-income

countries

without a skilled

attendant

In 2014

Coverage of tetanus

protection increased

Early initiation of ARVs

for the prevention of

mother-to-child

transmission of HIV

reduced new HIV infections

among children by nearly

71%

from

of births did

In least developed countries,

Globally, only

between 2000 and 2014

73%

83%

60%

between 2000 and 2014

of women and

Less than

newborns receive a health check within two

days of delivery

40%

1 in 4

newborns are put to the

breast within an hour of birth

2 in 5

and

infants under 6 months of age

are exclusively breastfed

2 in 5

Months 1 to 59

Third dose of Hib vaccine

Globally

from

Increased coverage of high impact interventions and strengthened health systems

are key factors in the decline in under-ﬁve mortality

Coverage of key pneumonia-related vaccines is increasing — and progress in sub-Saharan Africa is faster than the global average

14%

2000

56%

2014

Third dose of PCV vaccine

Globally

from

Globally, just

11%

31%

2010

2014

from

77%

ORS

from

53%

sub-Saharan Africa

children with

symptoms of ARI

are taken to health providers

for appropriate care

3 in 5

sub-Saharan Africa

oday, more than

90%

2/3

Progress has been slow in treating

sick children with diarrhoea

of the world’s

population uses

improved drinking water

sources and

children who become ill

with diarrhoea receive ORS

2 in 5

Today, just

�½

Between 2012 and

2015

use improved sanitation

facilities

of children in

sub-Saharan Africa

slept under an

insecticide-treated

bednet

Sources: UNICEF global databases 2015, based on MICS, DHS, MIS, and other nationally representative sources. UNICEF analysis based on the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME), 2015.

UNICEF/WHO- Progress on sanitation and drinking water – 2015 update and MDG assessment. WHO/UNICEF estimates of national routine immunization coverage, 2014 revision (completed July 2015); WHO, Vaccine in national

immunization programs, Update July 2015. UNICEF analysis of UNAIDS 2015 HIV and AIDS estimates.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

THE FIRST 28 DAYS: A majority of newborn

deaths could be prevented with key

interventions around the time of birth and

improved care for small and sick newborns

Deaths in the first 28 days of life account for an increasing

share of under-five deaths, and they are declining at a

slower rate than child deaths overall. Research conducted

as part of the Every Newborn Action Plan and the 2014

Every Newborn Lancet series demonstrated that two key

packages of interventions could prevent the majority of

neonatal deaths.

8, 9

•

Care around the time of birth

could avert more than

40 per cent of neonatal deaths. Key interventions

include care by a skilled birth attendant, emergency

obstetric care, immediate care for every newborn

•

baby (including breastfeeding support and clean birth

practices such as cord and thermal care) and newborn

resuscitation

Care for small and sick newborns

could avert 30 per

cent of neonatal deaths. Key interventions include

kangaroo mother care, prevention or management

of neonatal sepsis, addressing neonatal jaundice and

preventing brain damage after birth-related oxygen

deprivation.

Progress on several of these interventions is described in

more detail below. A wide variety of others — including

many delivered through community-based mechanisms —

have also contributed to global progress on newborn survival.

While many aspects of care play a role in reducing neonatal

mortality, only interventions for which there are high-quality,

globally comparable national data are included here.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Seven in 10 births have a skilled attendant, but

coverage is inequitable

Quality, skilled professional support before, during and

after delivery is essential to reducing neonatal mortality.

Antenatal visits with skilled health providers (doctors,

nurses or midwives) can make sure a pregnancy gets off to

a good start. Skilled providers are also crucial for overseeing

labour and delivery and providing life-saving care or referral

in case of complications.

Globally, the majority (71 per cent) of births are delivered

with the help of skilled health personnel. Despite the value

of skilled birth attendants, progress in increasing their reach

has been slow. Between 1990 and 2014, the proportion

of births attended by skilled health personnel rose just 12

percentage points, from 59 to 71 per cent. In 2014, about 36

million births occurred in low- and middle-income countries

without a skilled attendant present. That global average

masks highly uneven distributions: in sub-Saharan Africa and

South Asia only 50 per cent of births are attended by skilled

personnel, while CEE/CIS, Latin America and the Caribbean,

and East Asia and the Pacific all have rates above 90 per

cent. The slow expansion of skilled birth attendance has also

left the poorest women behind. Around the world, women

from the top wealth quintile are nearly three times more

likely to have a skilled attendant at delivery than women

from the bottom quintile.

As coverage increases in the highest-mortality regions, it

will be essential to increase focus on the quality of both

antenatal care and skilled attendance at birth by paying

attention to the content of services provided. In general, a

strong association is found between higher proportions of

skilled birth attendance or antenatal care visits and lower

neonatal mortality rates. That association is notably weaker,

however, in countries that still have relatively high rates of

neonatal deaths (Figure 20). This suggests a straightforward

conclusion: Merely having antenatal care visits or having

a skilled health provider present during childbirth is not

enough. Skilled health providers and antenatal visits must

offer quality services to be effective.

█

FIG. 20

Higher coverage of antenatal care visits and skilled attendance at birth are associated with lower neonatal

mortality, although the association is weaker in high-mortality countries

Association between antenatal care (four or more visits), skilled attendance at birth and neonatal mortality rate

Neonatal mortality rate (NMR)

Low ≤12

Medium (13–20)

High >20

Neonatal mortality rate

(deaths per 1,000 live births)

100

% women with 4 or more antenatal care visits during last pregnancy

% births attended by skilled personnel

Source: UNICEF analysis based on IGME 2015 estimates and UNICEF global databases 2015 based on MICS, DHS and other nationally representative sources

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Vaccine protection for newborns has increased since

2000, but progress has slowed in recent years

Reducing vaccine-preventable illnesses and deaths relies

on immunization programmes that reach every mother

and child. Those programmes begin at — or even

before — birth.

Protection from tetanus can be conferred from a properly

vaccinated mother to her newborn. At birth, children can

also receive some protection against polio, tuberculosis

and hepatitis B through direct vaccination against those

diseases.

Progress in increasing coverage of vaccines for these

conditions has been positive since 2000, though it has

varied among regions and across types of vaccinations.

Globally, 9 out of 10 newborns now receive BCG, the

tuberculosis vaccine, up from 8 in 10 in 2000. Tetanus

protection has seen a similar rise and a modest narrowing

of the gaps among regions over the same period.

However, overall protection rates are lower than for

tuberculosis, and the world has yet to eliminate neonatal

deaths from this entirely preventable disease. Hepatitis B

vaccine at birth (Hep B-Birth) has only been recommended

by the World Health Organization (WHO) since 2009, and

many countries are still scaling it up.

Uptake of this

vaccine has also seen rapid progress, though at markedly

different rates among regions. Global hepatitis B vaccine

coverage at birth remains well below 50 per cent.

CEE/CIS realized remarkable gains in hepatitis B at birth

vaccine coverage between 2000 and 2005 and then in

tetanus protection between 2005 and 2010, but progress

on both vaccinations has slowed notably since then. Across

BCG, Hep B-Birth and tetanus, the regions of sub-Saharan

Africa have the lowest coverage rates (Figure 21).

While coverage for all three vaccines has increased since

2000, progress has slowed since 2010, a period when

advances in many other child survival interventions were

accelerating. This slowing suggests that the remaining

gap includes those hardest to reach and signals a need to

redouble efforts to fully vaccinate every child.

█

FIG. 21

Remarkable progress has been made in increasing vaccine protection at birth, but it varies by type of

vaccination and by region

Percentage of live births who received BCG, hepatitis B vaccines, percentage of newborns protected at birth against tetanus, by region, 2000–2014

BCG

100

Hep B at birth

Tetanus (protection at birth)

CEE/CIS

Latin America &

the Caribbean

East Asia

& the Paciﬁc

Middle East

& North Africa

South Asia

2000

2005

2010

2014

2000

2005

2010

2014

2000

2005

2010

2014

Global

Eastern &

Southern

Africa

Sub-Saharan

Africa

West &

Central

Africa

Source: WHO and UNICEF estimates of national immunization coverage (WUENIC), 2014 revision (completed July 2015)

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Two in five babies under the age of 6 months are

exclusively breastfed

Proper nutrition is crucial both for the immediate survival of

infants as well as their long-term growth and health. Ideally,

infants should be breastfed within one hour of birth and

exclusively for the first six months of life. Early and exclusive

breastfeeding supports infants’ immune systems and may

protect them later in life from chronic conditions such as

obesity and diabetes. Infants who are not exclusively breastfed

can be at substantially higher risk of death from diarrhoea,

pneumonia and other infectious diseases.

Globally, only two out of five newborns put to the breast

within an hour of birth. Only CEE/CIS and Eastern and

Southern Africa have an early initiation rate above 50 per

cent. Worldwide, only two out of every five infants under

6 months of age are exclusively breastfed, with large

disparities among regions (Figure 22). The rate in West and

Central Africa is about half that of Eastern and Southern

Africa.

A number of countries — including Burkina Faso, Guinea

Bissau, Sierra Leone and Togo — have demonstrated that

rapid gains are possible. Each made gains in excess of 20

percentage points in just five years. In contrast, a number of

countries have seen large and rapid declines over the recent

time period, meaning that consistent efforts are needed not

only to increase, but even to maintain desired rates of this

critical practice.

█

FIG. 22

Too few infants benefit from exclusive breastfeeding

Percentage of infants aged 0–5 months that are exclusively breastfed, 2008 – 2014*

India and Pakistan. The final status of Jammu and Kashmir has not yet been agreed upon by the parties. The final boundary between the Sudan and South Sudan has not yet been determined. The final status of the Abyei area has

not yet been determined.

*2008–2014; except Brazil (2006) and India (2005-06).

Source: UNICEF global databases 2015 based on MICS, DHS and other nationally representative sources

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

In least developed countries, one in four babies

receives a check-up within two days of birth

Postnatal care for mothers and babies is critical to

reducing neonatal deaths. The limited data that are

available on postnatal check-ups indicate that far

too few mothers and babies are benefitting from

these essential interventions. In the least developed

countries, less than 40 per cent of new mothers and

only a quarter of newborns receive a health check

within two days of delivery (Figure 23). The low and

divergent postnatal care rates for mothers and babies

suggest large missed opportunities for providing critical

interventions and quality care.

█

FIG. 23

Only a quarter of newborns in least developed countries benefit from a postnatal health check within two

days of birth

Percentage of mothers and newborns with a postnatal health check within two days of delivery, 2010-2015

100

N/A

Sub-

Saharan

Africa

Eastern &

Southern

Africa

N/A

West &

Central

Africa

East

Asia & the

Paciﬁc*

Least

developed

countries

Newborns receiving postnatal care

Mothers receiving postnatal care

* Excludes China.

Note: Data were insufficient to calculate regional averages for postnatal health checks for newborns for sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern and Southern Africa. Regional

estimates represent data from countries covering at least 50 per cent of regional births.

Source: UNICEF global databases 2015, based on MICS and DHS

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

HIV and AIDS: Dramatic reductions in perinatal mother-to-child transmission

of HIV create new urgency for addressing postnatal transmission

About 1.5 million girls and women were pregnant and

living with HIV in 2014 — approximately 90 per cent of

them in sub-Saharan Africa.

Without any interventions

to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV, about half

of these girls and women would pass infection on to their

children during pregnancy, at the time of delivery or during

breastfeeding.

Concerted efforts to reach and provide

these mothers with most effective antiretroviral (ARV)

medicines have yielded astounding results. Provision of

most effective ARVs to pregnant women living with HIV in

sub-Saharan Africa increased from 36 per cent in 2009 to

75 per cent in 2014.

These countries have subsequently

seen nearly 50 per cent reductions in new HIV infections

among children under the age of 15 since 2009.

Globally, nearly 60 per cent fewer children were newly

infected with HIV in 2014 than in 2000. The global

rate of decline in new HIV infections in this group of

children has accelerated in recent years, in line with

the expansion of maternal ARV coverage: between

2000 and 2009, the number of children 0-14 years old

who were newly infected with HIV declined by 24 per

cent, compared to 45 per cent between 2009 and 2014.

Fewer HIV infections among children has also meant

fewer AIDS-related child deaths. Since 2000, AIDS-

related mortality among children under 5 years has fallen

by approximately 60 per cent globally, driven partly by

reductions of 60 per cent or more in 15 of the 21 priority

countries in sub-Saharan Africa during the same period.

14, 15

█

FIG. 24

Overall mother-to-child transmission of HIV has fallen by more than half in sub-Saharan Africa — from 38 per

cent in 2000 to 15 per cent in 2014

Estimated percentage of infants born to pregnant women living with HIV who become vertically infected with HIV (mother-to-child transmission

rate), sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–2014

Perinatal HIV transmission rate (within 6 weeks of birth)

% 50

Final mother-to-child HIV transmission rate

Source: UNICEF analysis of UNAIDS 2015 HIV and AIDS estimates

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

There has been remarkable success in reducing HIV

transmission during pregnancy and delivery. The mother-

to-child transmission that is still occurring is largely

during the postnatal risk period (Figure 25). In 2000,

infections in sub-Saharan Africa occurred in the perinatal

and postnatal period in about equal measure. Though

there were markedly fewer infections overall in 2014, the

infections that are still occurring are now more heavily

concentrated in the postnatal period.

The shift in the timing of HIV transmission from mother

to child has created a new urgency for focusing on

adherence to medicines and retaining mothers and

infants in care to the end of the breastfeeding period. A

number of interventions are already working to produce

better outcomes for mothers and babies both before and

during the breastfeeding period. These include:

•

Early initiation of ARVs in the first trimester of

pregnancy and expansion of antiretroviral treatment

for all pregnant women living with HIV, using a

single fixed dose combination in a one-pill-once-daily

formulation

•

Increased HIV counselling, peer support for

adherence to ARV medicines, and improved

defaulter tracking systems using community actors

•

Regular retesting of mothers during the pregnancy

and postnatal period to identify new HIV infections

•

Strengthening of community and facility linkages.

Ultimately, integrated work to help children survive and

thrive will save more lives than vertical and disease-

specific interventions alone. A child who survives HIV

only to die of malnutrition or diarrhoea is a preventable

loss and a failure of health systems. Covering the

remaining miles to an AIDS-free generation will require

strengthening overall health and community systems for

the women and children whose lives rely on them.

█

FIG. 25

New HIV infections among children are increasingly

concentrated in the postnatal period

Estimated new HIV infections among children (aged 0–14),

sub-Saharan Africa, 2000 versus 2014

2000

new HIV

infections among

children

230,000

(49%)

250,000

(51%)

480,000

2014

new HIV

infections among

children

74,000

39%

120,000

61%

190,000

Perinatal HIV infections (within 6 weeks of birth)

Postnatal HIV infections (beyond 6 weeks of birth)

Source: UNICEF analysis of UNAIDS 2015 HIV and AIDS estimates

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

MONTHS 1 TO 59: Increased coverage of high-

impact interventions and strengthened health

systems are key factors in the decline in child

mortality

The world’s success in reducing under-five mortality

is both about increasing the coverage of high-impact

interventions and about the ways those interventions

are delivered. Fewer children are dying every year

because more of them are being reached with life-

saving interventions. More children are being reached

because the systems for delivering that care are being

strengthened.

This section outlines the available data for coverage of

key child survival interventions related to three leading

childhood killers — pneumonia, diarrhoea and malaria —

as well as undernutrition, which plays a role in nearly half

of all under-five deaths. The data provide an indication of

the progress that has been made in increasing coverage,

but cannot fully capture other vital elements — such as

rapid expansion of community-based delivery channels or

improved supply chain management — that have made

the increases possible. These and other enabling factors

such as poverty reduction and increased community

engagement will remain crucial components to tackling the

under-five deaths that remain.

Substantial progress has been made in introducing

and increasing coverage of two key pneumonia-related

vaccines; progress in care-seeking for symptoms of

pneumonia has been slower

The fight against pneumonia-related deaths in children is

being waged both preventively and through better treatment

once infections do occur. The most effective preventive

measures have included the roll-out of two recent vaccines

— the Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib) vaccine and the

pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) — as part of a wider

package of immunization services.

Since 2000, the number of countries that have introduced

the Hib vaccine has tripled, reaching 192 by the end of 2014.

While the third dose of Hib vaccine coverage is increasing

and reached 56 per cent in 2014, there is wide regional

variation in uptake. Third-dose Hib vaccination rates in Latin

America and the Caribbean reached 88 per cent; in East

Asia and the Pacific, coverage is just 23 per cent.

The roll-out of PCV has been extremely rapid. Since its

introduction to low- and middle-income countries in 2008, it

reached 31 per cent global coverage in 2014 and 124 countries

now administer it. As with the Hib vaccine, pneumococcal

vaccine rates vary widely by region and show similar disparities

between the same high- and low-coverage regions (Figure 27).

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

█

FIG. 26

Dramatic progress has been made in the introduction and coverage of key pneumonia-related vaccines

Number of countries that introduced the Hib-containing vaccine), and percentage of surviving infants who received the third dose, 2010 and 2014

Number of countries that introduced HiB 3 vaccine

by 2000

by 2014

192

100

Percentage of surviving infants who received the third dose of HiB-containing vaccine, 2000 and 2014

2000

2014

% 50

Middle East

& North

Africa

South

Asia

East

Asia & the

Paciﬁc

Latin

America

& the

Caribbean

CEE/CIS

World

Sub-

Saharan

Africa

Source: WHO and UNICEF estimates of national routine immunization coverage, 2014 revision (completed July 2015); WHO, Vaccine in national immunization programs, Update July 2015

█

FIG. 27

Number of countries that introduced the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV), and percentage of surviving infants who received the third

dose, 2010 and 2014

Number of countries that introduced PCV vaccine

by 2010 by 2014

124

100

Percentage of surviving infants who received the third dose of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine vaccine, 2000 and 2014

2010

2014

% 50

Middle East

& North

Africa

South

Asia

0 0

East

Asia & the

Paciﬁc

Latin

America

& the

Caribbean

CEE/CIS

World

Sub-

Saharan

Africa

Source: WHO and UNICEF estimates of national routine immunization coverage, 2014 revision (completed July 2015); WHO, Vaccine in national immunization programs, Update July 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

When children become ill and show signs of pneumonia,

they need to receive a prompt diagnosis and treatment

from a facility-based health provider or a qualified

community health worker. Progress in reducing

pneumonia-related deaths requires quickly seeking

care from a health care provider once children develop

symptoms of pneumonia, followed by appropriate

treatment with antibiotics for bacterial pneumonia.

Symptoms of acute respiratory infection (ARI), such as

cough and fast or difficult breathing, are used in household

surveys as a proxy for symptoms of pneumonia. These

surveys show that care-seeking for ARI symptoms has

increased slowly over the past 15 years. Globally, just

three in five children with symptoms of ARI are taken to

health providers for appropriate care. Between 2000 and

2014, this rate improved by only 7 percentage points,

rising from 55 to 62 per cent.

Large regional variations are found in care-seeking

behaviour along with large and persistent gaps between

children living in rural and urban areas. Except in East

Asia and the Pacific, where gaps have recently closed,

children in rural areas are significantly less likely to be

taken for care when they experience ARI symptoms

(Figure 28).

█

FIG. 28

Three in five children with symptoms of acute respiratory infection are taken for care, but progress has been slow

Percentage of children under five with symptoms of acute respiratory infection (ARI) taken for care, around 2000 and around 2014, by region and

for urban and rural areas.

100

% 50

Urban

Total

Rural

Sub-

Saharan

Africa

Eastern &

Southern

Africa

West &

Central

Africa

Middle East

& North

Africa

East

Asia & the

Paciﬁc*

South

Asia

Least

developed

countries

World*

*Excludes China.

Note: Estimates are based on a subset of 58 countries with available data by residence for the periods 1999-2007 and 2010-2015 covering over 50 per cent of the global

population under age 5.

Source: UNICEF global databases 2015 based on MICS, DHS and other nationally representative sources

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Improvements in drinking water, sanitation and hygiene

are reducing diarrhoeal infections, but only two in five

children receive appropriate treatment when they fall ill

As with pneumonia, decreasing deaths in children from

diarrhoea requires both prevention and appropriate

treatment. Improvements in drinking water, sanitation and

hygiene (WASH) are essential for preventing diarrhoeal

infections and other diseases. Today, more than 90 per

cent of the world’s population use improved drinking water

sources and two thirds use improved sanitation facilities

(up from 76 per cent and 54 per cent, respectively, in

1990) (Figure 29). These advances have contributed to the

substantial reduction in diarrhoeal deaths among children

under age 5 since 2000. Despite this progress, 663 million

people still lack improved drinking water sources, 2.4 billion

lack improved sanitation and nearly 1 billion still practise

open defecation. In 2012, 58 per cent of diarrhoea deaths in

children under 5 were attributed to inadequate water

and sanitation.

█

FIG. 29

The regions with the lowest coverage of improved sanitation are also those with the highest burden of

under-five deaths from diarrhoea

Percentage of the population using improved sanitation in 2015

Source: UNICEF and WHO, Progress on Sanitation and Drinking Water – 2015 update and MDG assessment, New York, 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

When children do become ill with diarrhoea, one of the

most effective treatments is both inexpensive and easy to

administer — oral rehydration salts (ORS). Evidence indicates

that ORS treatment could prevent upwards of 90 per cent

of diarrhoeal deaths.

The WHO-UNICEF recommended

combination of ORS and zinc supplementation can

reduce the severity of diarrhoea while preventing relapse

and dehydration.

Today, just two in five children who

become ill with diarrhoea receive ORS. Coverage of zinc

supplementation for diarrhoea treatment is particularly low

because introduction and scale-up in most low- and middle-

income countries has only occurred recently. The median

coverage is only 1 per cent in 49 countries with available data

in 2010-2014. Only two countries — Malawi and Zimbabwe

— have reached coverage above 20 per cent in this period.

The inequities of diarrhoea prevention and treatment are

striking. Eight out of 10 people who still lack improved

drinking water sources live in rural areas; 7 out of 10

people without improved sanitation facilities live in rural

areas.

Across most regions, children from households in the lowest

wealth quintile are significantly less likely to receive ORS

treatment when they become ill (Figure 30). In West Africa, the

richest children are about twice as likely to receive treatment

as the poorest; in Central Africa, they are three times more

likely. Further reducing diarrhoeal deaths will require a stronger

focus on increasing coverage of prevention and treatment

interventions and narrowing the equity gaps in that coverage.

In addition to increasing WASH and ORS coverage, the

recent introduction of a vaccine for rotavirus — a virus that

can cause severe diarrhoea — offers new hope for continued

progress in reducing diarrhoeal deaths. Though only recently

recommended by the WHO for global use, 79 countries have

now added the vaccine to their immunization schedules,

with four more planning to introduce it soon.

█

FIG. 30

Too few children receive appropriate diarrhoea treatment and poorer children are least likely to receive treatment

Percentage of deaths among children aged 1-59 months attributable to diarrhoea in 2015 and percentage of children under 5 with diarrhoea

given ORS, 2010-2014, by region and household wealth quintiles.

* Excludes China.

** Excludes India.

Note: Estimates of ORS coverage are based on a subset of 64 countries with available data by household wealth quintiles for the period 2010-2015 covering over 50 per cent of the global population

under 5.

Source: UNICEF analysis based on cause of deaths WHO-MCEE (provisional estimates) and UNICEF global databases 2015 based on MICS, DHS and other nationally representative sources

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Malaria control efforts have prevented more than 6

million child deaths since 2000

In malaria endemic regions, vector control is one of

the most effective interventios for prevention. To this

end, malaria prevention efforts have focused heavily on

increasing the use of insecticide-treated bednets (ITNs) to

prevent transmission – especially in sub-Saharan Africa.

Since 2004, more than 1.1 billion ITNs have been distributed

around the world; nearly 1 billion of those were in sub-Saharan

Africa (19). Between 2001 and 2015, malaria control efforts

have averted an estimated 6.1 million under-five deaths from

malaria. In that time, malaria-related death rate among children

under 5 fell by more than two thirds.

Even 1 billion insecticide-treated bednets distributed to sub-

Saharan Africa since 2004, however, have not proven sufficient

to protect the children most at risk. In addition, with a lifespan

of less than three years, not all these bednets would have

remained effective or been available by 2015. In the period

between 2012 and 2015, only 45 per cent of children in sub-

Saharan Africa slept under an insecticide-treated bednet. In

West and Central Africa — the region with the highest burden

of malaria deaths — just one third to one half of young children

are protected by ITNs (Figure 31).

█

FIG. 31

The regions in sub-Saharan Africa with the highest burden of under-five deaths from malaria also have the

lowest rates of insecticide-treated bednet use

Percentage of post−neonatal (1-59 months) deaths attributable to malaria in 2015 and percentage of children under 5 sleeping under ITNs, 2012-

2015

This map does not reflect a position by UNICEF on the legal status of any country or territory or the delimitation of any frontiers. The final boundary between the Sudan and South Sudan has not yet been determined.

The final status of the Abyei area has not yet been determined.

Note: Regional estimates on ITN use by children are based on a subset of 30 countries in sub-Saharan Africa with available data for the period 2012-2015 covering over 67 per cent

of the population under 5 in the region and at least 50 per cent of the population under 5 in each sub-region. Regions presented in the chart refer to UNICEF regions and Economic

Commission for Africa regions.

Source: UNICEF analysis based on cause of deaths WHO-MCEE (provisional estimates) and UNICEF global databases 2015 based on MICS, DHS and other nationally representative

sources

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

When children show signs of malaria, appropriate

diagnosis is necessary before administering treatment.

Until recently, many children in malaria endemic countries

who showed signs of fever were systematically treated

with an antimalarial. To prevent the development

of parasite resistance and based on evidence that

an increasing number of cases of fever were not

caused by malaria, the WHO updated its treatment

recommendations in 2010 to recommend a confirmatory

diagnostic test for young children with fevers in malaria-

endemic areas.20, 21 Uptake of the diagnostic tests has

been slow, with just one in five children with fever being

tested for malaria before receiving treatment in 2010-2014

(Figure 32). As with ITNs, the weakest areas of coverage

are the regions with the highest burden of childhood

malaria deaths.

█

FIG. 32

One in five children with fever are tested for malaria before they receive treatment

Percentage of children under 5 with fever in sub-Saharan Africa who received a diagnostic test for malaria, 2010–2014

Rural Total Urban

Did not receive a malaria diagnostic test

Received a malaria diagnostic test

100

% 50

Rural Total Urban

Central

Africa

Rural Total Urban

Eastern

Africa

Rural Total Urban

Southern

Africa

Rural Total Urban

Sub-

Saharan

Africa

Rural Total Urban

West

Africa

Note: Regional estimates are based on a subset of 32 countries, covering 82% of population under five in sub Saharan Africa in 2015. Sub-regional estimates represent data

from countries covering at least 50% of regional population under five.

Source: UNICEF global databases 2015 based on MICS, DHS and other nationally representative sources

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Undernutrition remains a factor in nearly half of all

under-five deaths

Addressing proper nutrition early on can bring a host of

benefits for children, including improved overall health,

cognitive capacity and school performance. Missing the

crucial window of opportunity for proper nutrition in the first

1,000 days of life can have lifelong repercussions, making

early action essential.

While not listed among the leading childhood killers,

nearly half of all under-five deaths are attributable to

undernutrition. Undernourishment increases the frequency

and severity of common infections, contributes to delayed

recovery and puts children at greater risk of dying from

those infections.

Nutrition interventions that can help prevent stunting and/

or reduce child mortality include the management of acute

malnutrition; protection, promotion and support of optimal

breastfeeding and complementary feeding practices; and

provision of appropriate micronutrient interventions for

mothers and children. Although coverage and quality have

improved over the years, in 2013, fewer than one in six

children needing treatment for severe acute malnutrition

were reached. As outlined earlier, too few children are

benefitting from early initiation of breastfeeding and from

exclusive breastfeeding. Data from a limited set of available

nationally representative surveys show that very few

children aged 6–23 months receive a minimum acceptable

diet in regard to food quality and frequency of feeding.

Declines in undernutrition, as measured through rates of

stunting, have occurred more slowly than declines in overall

child mortality, most notably in sub-Saharan Africa (Figure

33). Between 1990 and 2013, progress in reducing stunting

was weakest in West and Central Africa, where, due to slow

declines and a growing population, the number of children

affected by stunting has risen by 5 million since 1990. Because

of the role that undernutrition can play in child deaths from all

causes, effective strategies for tackling it will be essential to

making continued progress on overall child mortality.

█

FIG. 33

Declines in stunting have been slowest in West and Central Africa

Percentage of children under age 5 moderately or severely stunted and percentage decline, by region, 1990 to 2013

100

1990

2013

95% conﬁdence

interval

Target of 50% decline

between 1990 and 2015

Percentage

decline

Achieved at least a

50% decline in stunting

38%

26%

21%

72%

43%

52%

39%

South

Asia

Eastern &

Southern

Africa

West &

Central

Africa

East

Asia & the

Paciﬁc

Middle East

& North

Africa

Latin

America

& the

Caribbean

CEE/CIS*

World

*The baseline for CEE/CIS is 1995 and not 1990 because of a lack of any data prior to 1995. This region also excludes the Russian Federation, for which data are not available.

Source: UNICEF, WHO, World Bank Joint Malnutrition Estimates, September 2014 update. Note new stunting figures through to 2014 will be released in September 2015.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

VITAMIN A SUPPLEMENTATION CAN REDUCE ALL-CAUSE CHILD MORTALITY BY NEARLY

A QUARTER

Around the world, vitamin A deficiency affects nearly one third of

preschool-aged children. The deficiency is the leading cause of

preventable childhood blindness and increases the risk of childhood

death from illnesses such as diarrhoea. Fortunately, it is easily addressed.

Periodic high-dose vitamin A supplementation is a proven, low-cost

intervention that can reduce all-cause child mortality by 24 per cent.

Integrated child health events are helping to expand the reach of vitamin

A supplementation efforts. In 2013, roughly two thirds of targeted

children were reached with two doses of the supplement. This represents

a marked improvement throughout the MDG period — the number of

priority countries that have reached effective coverage rates has tripled

and the number of low-coverage priority countries has declined by nearly

three quarters since 2000.

In high-mortality countries, investments in vitamin A supplementation

hold great promise for preventing young child deaths from a variety of

causes.

The work that remains to eliminate preventable child deaths is

substantial, but it can be accomplished. It will require focused

attention on the places and populations that still shoulder large

burdens. It will require sustained commitment not just to

health interventions — but also to the work of other sectors

and to the systems necessary to deliver them. It will require

deciding on — and committing to — the future we want for

the world’s children.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

3| The future we want

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

3 | The future we want

The dramatic global progress in reducing child mortality over the

past 25 years provides a clear message for the next 15: With

the right commitment, bold, ambitious goals are within reach.

Despite limited resources, two dozen low- and lower-middle-

income countries from every region of the world have met the

MDG target for reducing the under-five mortality rate by two

thirds. Nearly 70 per cent of all countries have at least halved

their rates of under-five mortality. The 48 million children whose

lives have been saved since 2000 are evidence of the power of

global commitments.

In 2015, the world begins working towards a new global development

agenda, seeking to achieve, by 2030, new targets set out in the Sustainable

Development Goals. The SDG target for child mortality represents a

renewed promise to the world’s children:

children under ﬁve will die over the next

ﬁfteen years if child mortality rates

remain at 2015 levels

94 mil ion

38 mil ion

of those children could be saved

by meeting the SDG target on time

By 2030, end preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5 years of age, with all countries aiming to

reduce neonatal mortality to at least as low as 12 per 1,000 live births and under-five mortality to at least as low

as 25 per 1,000 live births.

This chapter demonstrates that meeting the SDG target will require sustained efforts and strong commitment. This

chapter also makes it clear that meeting — or failing to meet — the goal will make the difference between life and

death for millions of children. With stakes this high, the world must live up to its promises.

Scenarios for child mortality from 2016 to 2030: Choices made today can

produce dramatically different results for children in the years to come

To demonstrate the potential outcomes of different rates

of progress on child mortality, this chapter focuses on

three potential scenarios for the next 15 years:

•

The first scenario — labelled

losing momentum

— is one in which countries fail to capitalize on the

momentum of the MDGs, and levels of under-five

mortality remain at 2015 levels over the next 15 years

The second scenario — labelled

maintaining current

trends

— is one in which all countries sustain rates

of reduction of under-five mortality achieved during

the period 2000–2015, but fail to accelerate progress

further

The third scenario — labelled

meeting the SDG

target

— is one in which the world accelerates

progress in order to reach the SDG target of each

country reducing its under-five mortality rate to 25 or

fewer deaths per 1,000 live births and its neonatal

mortality rate to 12 or fewer by 2030.

These three scenarios offer vastly different glimpses

into the unwritten future of child mortality. The final

results of the SDG agenda will not be tallied for

another 15 years, but the decisions that are made

now — as the world commits to the new goals — will

determine, in large part, whether the goals will be

reached. There is ample evidence that the SDG target

is attainable; the challenge that remains is mustering

the necessary resolve and political will to achieve the

world we want for the world’s children.

•

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Losing momentum scenario:

94 million children

under the age of 5 will die between 2016 and

2030 if under-five mortality rates remain at

today’s levels

Progress in reducing child mortality has not come easily

and, without continued investment, the momentum

gained over the past 15 years will be lost. If the world

loses momentum, there will be real and irreparable

repercussions for children. If mortality rates stay at 2015

levels, 94 million children under the age of 5 will die over

the next 15 years (Figure 34).

In the coming years, the only expected under-five population

growth in the world will occur in the regions with the highest

remaining levels of child mortality — Eastern and Southern

Africa and, particularly, West and Central Africa. That means

that, even if current under-five mortality rates remain constant

in these regions, the absolute number of child deaths will

rise in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, 5.9 million children will

die before the age of 5 globally; based on current population

projections, 6.6 million children will die worldwide in 2030 if

rates remain at 2015 levels. Those deaths are not inevitable.

The vast majority can be averted if the world maintains — or

accelerates — progress against 2015 mortality rates.

█

FIG. 34

If child mortality remains at today’s levels, 94 million children under the age of 5 will die between 2016 and 2030

Projected global under-five mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) and the number of under-five deaths under various scenarios, 2015–2030

A. Under-five mortality rates

2015 baseline

Deaths per 1,000 live births

2015

2020

2025

2030

1) Losing momentum: if mortality remains at 2015 levels

2) Maintaining current trends: if the annual rate of reduction

in 2000–2015 continues to 2030

3) Meeting the SDG target: if each country’s rate drops to the

SDG target of 25 deaths per 1000 live births (or lower) in 2030

B. Number of under-five deaths

2015 baseline

1) Losing momentum: if mortality remains at 2015 levels

Deaths (in millions)

2015

2020

more than 25 million

lives saved

additional

94 million under-ﬁve deaths

2) Maintaining current trends:

compared to

losing momentum:

more than

13 million

lives saved

69 million under-ﬁve deaths

3) Meeting the SDG target:

25 million

lives saved

compared to

losing momentum:

56 million under-ﬁve deaths

2025

2030

38 million

lives saved

Note: Calculations are based on unrounded numbers and displayed rounded numbers therefore may not sum up. The rising rate and increasing number of under-five

deaths in

1) Losing momentum

are the result of the growing size of the under-five population and the shift of the population share towards high-mortality regions over the

next 15 years.

Source: UNICEF analysis based on IGME 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

THE WORLD IN 2030: POPULATION GROWTH IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA MAKES

ACCELERATED PROGRESS INCREASINGLY URGENT

The world’s population reached 7.3 billion in 2015, nearly triple its size

in 1950. Current projections estimate a global population of 8.5 billion

by 2030 and 9.7 billion by 2050.

Between 2016 and 2030, 2.1 billion children will be born around the

world – and these births will increasingly take place in sub-Saharan

Africa, which will see 620 million births over that period. Even as

fertility rates slow down, the increasing number of reproductive-

age women in sub-Saharan Africa will contribute to the rising

population.

The two sub-regions of sub-Saharan Africa – Eastern and Southern Africa and

West and Central Africa – are the only regions in the world expected to see

growth in their child populations (Figure 35). The under-five population there

is expected to rise from 163 million in 2015 to 207 million by 2030. By 2050,

sub-Saharan Africa will be home to 259 million children under the age of 5.

█

FIG. 35

Sub-Saharan Africa is the only part of the world expected to see a rising child population

Population of children under age 5 by region, 1950-2050

300

Population (in millions)

250

200

150

100

1950

2000

2050

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia

West & Central Africa

East Asia & the Paciﬁc

Eastern & Southern Africa

Others

Middle East & North Africa

Latin America & the Caribbean

CEE/CIS

Source: UNICEF

analysis based on

the United Nations,

Department of

Economic and Social

Affairs, Population

Division, World

Population Prospects:

The 2015 Revision,

United Nations, New

York, 2015

Keeping up with population growth will require more resources and faster progress

A growing child population can present great opportunities for the future

of these regions, but it will also require even more investments in the

interventions, providers and systems that help children survive and

thrive. Consider just a few examples:

•

Population growth means that, in the years to come, substantially

more work will be required just to maintain current – often inadequate

– rates of coverage for key interventions. In the case of skilled birth

attendance, an additional 34 million births will have to be attended in

sub-Saharan Africa over the next 15 years just to maintain the 2014

skilled attendance coverage level of 52 per cent. Reaching a higher

coverage rate will require even more intense efforts.

Stunting rates have been falling slowly in West and Central Africa

– from 41 per cent in 2000 to 35 per cent in 2015 – resulting in 29

million stunted children today. If this trend continues, around 30

per cent of children under age 5 in this region will be stunted in

2030. Despite this decrease in the rate of stunting, 3 million more

children will be stunted in 2030 in West and Central Africa than

there are today because progress in reducing stunting is not fast

enough to compensate for continuing population growth.

In Eastern and Southern Africa, the proportion of the population

lacking access to improved drinking water sources has

decreased from 47 per cent in 2000 to 34 per cent in 2015. If

this trend continues, the proportion will reach 24 per cent in

2030. While a smaller proportion of the population will lack

access to improved water in 2030, population growth in this

region is expected to outpace the provision of services. As a

result, the total number of people lacking access to improved

water sources will increase by almost 4 million – reaching 170

million. On the positive side, an additional 200 million people

will have gained access to improved water sources in 2030

compared to 2015 (520 million in total).

Across sub-Saharan Africa, access to improved sanitation has

increased only slightly over the last 15 years and remained at

30 per cent in 2015. If this trend continues, coverage will reach

34 per cent in 2030. During that same period, the population of

sub-Saharan Africa will grow by 450 million, meaning that in

2030 almost 1 billion people in that region will still lack access to

improved sanitation – 260 million more than in 2015.

•

Keeping pace with a growing population makes accelerated progress on

child survival essential. Pushing further ahead to reach the 2030 goals

will require even more concerted efforts in the places with increasing

numbers of children.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Maintaining current trends scenario:

If today’s

rates of decline in child mortality are maintained,

more than 25 million more children will survive

between 2016 and 2030

The differences between slowing, maintaining or accelerating

momentum on child mortality are stark. If the world sustains

the progress made during the MDGs over the course of the

next 15 years, more than 25 million more children will live to

see their fifth birthdays than would survive under the losing

momentum scenario. The maintaining current trends scenario

represents a better world for children, but one that still falls

short of the SDG target (see Figure 34). Even if current rates

of decline are sustained, 69 million children will die before the

age of 5 during the next 15 years; about half of those children

will die within their first month of life.

The current rate of progress simply is not fast enough.

Based on current trends, one quarter of countries are

off-track for meeting the SDG target. Current trends also

mean that the burden of child deaths will be distributed

very unequally. Of the 69 million under-five deaths that will

take place if current trends continue, more than half with

be in sub-Saharan Africa and nearly a third will be in South

Asia (Figure 36).

However, even those regional groupings mask the true

concentration of the projected deaths in the coming years.

If current trends continue, by 2030 just five countries will

account for more than half of all under-five deaths — India

(17 per cent), Nigeria (15 per cent), Pakistan (8 per cent),

Democratic Republic of the Congo (7 per cent) and Angola

(5 per cent).

█

FIG. 36

If current trends continue, four out of five child deaths between 2016 and 2030 will be in sub-Saharan Africa

and South Asia

Percentage distribution of projected under-five deaths in 2016–2030 by region if current trends continue in all countries

Latin America & the Caribbean, 3%

West & Central Africa, 33%

Eastern & Southern Africa, 18%

South Asia, 30%

East Asia & the Paciﬁc, 7%

CEE/CIS, 1%

Middle East & North Africa, 5%

100

Other, 1%

Source: UNICEF analysis based on IGME 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Meeting the SDG target scenario:

If progress is

accelerated to meet the SDG target, the lives of 38

million children under the age of 5 could be saved

The world can do better for children. If progress is accelerated

from 2015 levels to meet the SDG target, the lives of 38

million children could be saved compared to the first scenario

(losing momentum). Those 38 million lives include 13 million

more children under the age of 5 than would be saved if

current trends continue in each country (Figure 34).

The 13 million girls and boys whose lives depend on

accelerated progress come from the 47 countries that

will need to accelerate progress in order to reach the

SDG target. Eight in 10 of the children whose lives

would be saved come from sub-Saharan Africa

(Figure 37).

It is important to remember that even more children can

be saved if countries meet the SDG target earlier, which is

possible in some countries.

█

FIG. 37

Sub-Saharan Africa is home to 81 per cent of the 13 million children under age 5 whose lives could be saved

with accelerated progress on child mortality

Number of lives saved among children under age 5 if the SDG target is achieved compared to the continuation of current trends, by region,

2016–2030

7.7

50,000 children under age 5

2.4

2.3

0.3

0.01

0.05

0.1

West & Central Africa 7.7, (60%)

Eastern & Southern Africa 2.4, (18%)

South Asia 2.3, (18%)

Middle East & North Africa 0.3, (2%)

East Asia & the Paciﬁc 0.1, (1%)

Latin America & the Caribbean 0.1, (0%)

CEE/CIS 0, (0%)

Other 0, (0%)

Source: UNICEF analysis based on IGME 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Reaching the 2030 goal will not be easy…

Simply maintaining the levels of progress achieved during the

MDG period — let alone accelerating to reach the post-2015

goals — will require sustained and substantial efforts and

high-level political commitment. Today, 79 countries have an

under-five mortality rate that exceeds the 25 per 1,000 target

set for 2030. Thirty-two of these 79 countries will reach that

target if they can sustain their current rates of progress.

The remaining 47 countries will need to accelerate

progress in order to reach the target. The acceleration

needed to reach the goals in those countries is substantial

(Figure 38) — 30 countries must at least double their

current rate of reduction. Eleven of those 30 must at

least triple their current rate of reduction. If current trends

continue, 21 countries would achieve the target between

2031 and 2050 and another 26 would achieve the target

sometime after 2050 (Figure 39).

The countries that need to accelerate progress can be

found in most regions of the world, though West and

Central Africa has the highest proportion of countries

requiring faster progress.

█

FIG. 38

If current trends continue, dozens of countries will miss the SDG target by a wide margin

Projected under-five mortality rate in 2030 in countries that are expected to miss the SDG target of 25 deaths per 1,000 live births by more than 10

deaths per 1,000 live births, if current trends continue*

150

125

Deaths per 1,000 live births

+89

+76

100

+82

Acceleration needed to meet SDG target

Less than 2x

2-3x

3-5x

More than 5x

+72

+45

+43

+ Excess mortality

+38

+37

+36

+35

+34

+28

+27

+26

+33

+23

+22

+21

+20

+19

+17

+15

+13

SDG target

gol

lia

ntr

al A

fric

pub

Les c

oth

SDG target of an

under-ﬁve mortality rate of 25 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2030

iti

run

rkin

aso

Dji

pua

bou

w G ti

uin

Lao

opl

Nig

e's

cra

tic

pub

lic

zam a

biq

* In countries with 10,000 or more live births in 2015.

Source: UNICEF analysis based on IGME 2015

nin

Nig

Ma eria

Sie itania

rra

cra

Leo

tic

Afg

pub

han e

lic

ista

of t

ngo

Cô

te d ali

'Ivo

ire

Equ

ato akist

ria

lG n

uin

ros

ine

roo

Tog

ine

a-B o

iss

Zim

bab

uth

dan

+11

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

█

FIG. 39

Current progress must be accelerated to reach the SDG target, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa

Achievement of the SDG target on child mortality by year, by country, if current trends continue in all countries

A) Under-five mortality target

B) Neonatal mortality target

The final status of Jammu and Kashmir has not yet been agreed upon by the parties. The final boundary between the Sudan and South Sudan has not yet been determined. The final status of the Abyei area has not yet been determined.

Source: UNICEF analysis based on IGME 2015.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

As a group, low- and lower-middle-income countries have

the furthest to go to meet the SDG target. Over two thirds

of low-income countries (21 of 31) and more than a third of

lower-middle-income (19 of 50) countries must accelerate

progress if they are to meet the SDG under-five mortality

target (Figure 40).

█

FIG. 40

More than two thirds of low-income countries must accelerate progress to reach the SDG target

Required annual rate of reduction in 2015–2030 versus the historical annual rate of reduction in the under-five mortality rate

achieved during 2000–2015

Under-five mortality

Angola

Required annual rate of reduction from 2015,

to reach an under−ﬁve mortality rate of 25 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2030 (%)

Nigeria

Under−ﬁve deaths

(in millions)

0.2

0.4

0.8

1.2

Democratic

Republic

of the Congo

Pakistan

Low income

India

Lower middle income

Upper middle income

High income

Observed annual rate of reduction in under−ﬁve mortality rate during 2000−2015 (%)

Source: UNICEF analysis based on IGME 2015

About these charts: Figures 40 and 41 illustrate the mortality rate reductions needed by individual countries to achieve specific targets by 2030

• Each bubble represents a country. The size of the bubble represents the number of deaths in 2015.

• The colour of the bubble represents national income level.

• The horizontal axis shows the observed rate of reduction in the mortality rate per year over 2000–2015.

• The vertical axis shows the required rate of reduction per year from 2015 to 2030 to meet the SDG target.

• Countries above the diagonal line need faster rates of reduction (i.e., accelerated progress) to achieve the target.

• Countries below the diagonal line will be able to achieve the target at their current rates of reduction.

• Countries on the horizontal axis have already reached the target, as of 2015.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

The challenge of meeting the neonatal target are is more

substantial. Sixty-three countries — including 26 low-

income countries — will need to accelerate their current

rates of reduction in order to reach that target.

No low-income country has achieved the neonatal

mortality target yet and, given current trends, only 5 low

income countries are set to achieve it by 2030.

█

FIG. 41

More than two thirds of low-income countries must accelerate progress to reach the SDG target

Required annual rate of reduction in 2015–2030 versus the historical annual rate of reduction in the neonatal mortality rate

achieved during 2000–2015

Neonatal mortality

Angola

Pakistan

Required annual rate of reduction from 2015, to reach

a neonatal mortality rate of 12 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2030 (%)

Nigeria

India

Neontal deaths

(in millions)

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.7

Low income

Lower middle income

Upper middle income

High income

Democratic

Republic

of the Congo

Observed annual rate of reduction in neonatal mortality rate during 2000−2015 (%)

Source: UNICEF analysis based on IGME 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

… but it is achievable

The challenges that lie ahead should not be

underestimated, but they are surmountable. The

accelerated progress achieved during the past 15 years

has demonstrated the gains that can be achieved and

shown the huge potential of simple, inexpensive,

evidence-based interventions to save lives. The fact

that two dozen low- and lower-middle-income countries

achieved the child mortality MDG target demonstrates

definitively that income need not be a barrier to

accomplishment. The 21 sub-Saharan African countries

that reversed an increasing under-five mortality trend or at

least tripled their progress in 2000–2015 also demonstrate

that rapid acceleration is possible.

If the SDG target is met, the lives of 38 million children

can be saved by 2030. It is within our power to make good

on that promise.

Looking beyond the numerical SDG target, the top

performing countries in each region and around the world

provide concrete evidence of even more ambitious child

mortality rates that can be — and have been — achieved.

The projections below provide a glimpse into the potential

gains in child mortality that lie ahead:

Matching the top regional performers:

If each country

followed the trend of the best performer within its own

region, an additional 7 million lives could be saved beyond

those saved under the SDG target scenario.

Matching the high income country average:

If each

country’s under-five mortality rate reached or fell below

the current average rate in high-income countries (6.8

deaths per 1,000 live births) by 2030, an additional 21

million lives could be saved beyond those saved under

the SDG target scenario.

An analysis of 75 high-burden countries provides a

different perspective on the gains that are possible with

accelerated progress. Today, just eight of these countries

are expected to reach the SDG target on time. If each

country scaled up intervention coverage as fast as the

best performer in each intervention grouping, that number

would rise to 33 by 2030.

Under-five deaths in those

countries would fall by nearly two thirds over 15 years —

from 5.5 million in 2015 to 2.0 million in 2030.

These analyses and projections — based on rates and

trends that have already been seen in some contexts —

offer hope for future progress in eliminating preventable

child deaths.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Realizing equity for child survival: Both high- and low-mortality

countries must tackle equity gaps in child mortality

Every child deserves a fair chance in life, beginning with a fair

chance to survive his or her first days and years of life. The

preceding chapters have provided some evidence that, from

birth, certain children are at a survival disadvantage because

of their place of birth, family’s wealth or mother’s education.

This section looks in more detail at the progress that is

possible with greater equity in child health.

richest and the poorest households in most regions will

see progress over the next 15 years, no region is on

track to close its child mortality equity gaps by 2030.

Based on current trends, most regions are not likely

to achieve equity in under-five mortality rates between

the poorest and the richest households even by mid-

century.

The gaps between the richest and poorest within each

region and among the world’s regions become clear

when estimating how long it will take each population

group to reach the SDG child mortality target based on

current trends. In four regions, the wealthiest quintile

has already reached that benchmark; the poorest

quintile has achieved the target only in CEE/CIS. In

another four regions, current progress means that the

poorest households will reach the SDG target by 2030,

but in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia the poorest

will not reach this target until years after the deadline.

The gaps between the richest and poorest house-

holds are closing in some regions but not in all

Preliminary analysis indicates that, in most regions, child

mortality rates have declined substantially faster for

the poorest than for the richest households since 2000.

However, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa — the

regions with the highest under-five mortality — have not

followed this pattern.

These relative rates of decline shape the different

equity trajectories of each region. While both the

TRACKING PROGRESS AND REALIZING RIGHTS:

CIVIL REGISTRATION AND VITAL STATISTICS SYSTEMS

Around the world, the births of nearly 230 million children under the age of 5

have never been registered, and less than 3 per cent of deaths are medically

certified.* Even in low-mortality countries, serious weaknesses are evident

in systems for registering births and deaths. Just 60 countries have fully

functioning vital registration systems, while the remainder rely heavily on

periodic household surveys to estimate levels and trends in child mortality.**

Surveys provide important information in the absence of fully functioning

civil registration and vital statistics systems, but they cannot replace them.

To accurately track child births and deaths, deeper investments are needed in

such systems around the world.

Registration is key not only for understanding data and trends,

but also as a first step in securing children’s legal rights to access

services such as health care and education later in life. Birth

registration is every child’s right and the world’s responsibility to

safeguard.

* Liu, L., et al., ‘Global, Regional, and National Causes of Child Mortality in 2000–13, with Projections to Inform Post-2015 Priorities: An updated systematic

analysis’, The Lancet, vol. 2385, 2015, pp. 430–40, doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61698-6.

**UNICEF.

Committing to Child Survival: A Promise Renewed

Progress Report, 2013. UNICEF, New York, NY 2013.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

In 63 high-mortality countries, one quarter of

under-five deaths could be averted by scaling up

national intervention coverage rates to the level

of the wealthiest households

A key factor that influences the difference in mortality

rates between the richest and poorest households is the

extent to which each group benefits from essential health

interventions. In most high-mortality countries, coverage of

health interventions is notably higher among the wealthiest

families than among the poorest. This puts less privileged

children at an immediate survival disadvantage.

An analysis of 63 of the highest-mortality countries

(representing almost 90 per cent of global under-five

deaths) indicates that one in four under-five deaths in

those countries could be averted with a greater emphasis

on equity in intervention coverage. If each of the 63

countries brought its national coverage rates for essential

health interventions up to the coverage rates found in

the highest wealth quintile, 1.3 million of the group’s 5.1

million under-five deaths could be averted (Figure 42).

█

FIG. 42

One in four under-five deaths could be averted in 63 high-mortality countries by scaling up national

intervention coverage rates to the level of the wealthiest households

Number of deaths in a set of 63 countries with high under-five mortality in 2015 and the number of under-five deaths that could be averted if

national coverage of interventions was scaled up to the level of the wealthiest households

Under-ﬁve deaths (in millions)

1.3

1.3 million

of 5.1 million deaths

could be averted

if national coverage

of interventions

was scaled up

to the level of the

wealthiest households

Deaths in the

63 high-mortality countries

in 2015 (5.1 million)

Source: Lives Saved Tool (LiST) analysis by Johns Hopkins University, 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Increasing national coverage rates could decrease average

under-five mortality rates in these countries by almost 30 per

cent. The potential benefits vary across countries — with some

showing mortality gains below 10 per cent and others with

the potential to cut rates by upwards of 40 per cent (Figure

43). Three quarters of countries included in the analysis could

potentially see declines in child mortality of between 10 per cent

and 30 per cent by scaling up intervention coverage. The degree

to which a country would benefit from tackling inequities in

coverage is strongly connected with the country’s current

disease burden and the extent to which current coverage rates

are uneven across wealth quintiles.

█

FIG. 43

All 63 high-mortality countries would benefit from reducing inequities in health interventions

Impact on the under-five mortality rate of increasing national coverage to the level of the top wealth quintile

140

No change

Under-ﬁve mortality rate with scaled-up interventions

(deaths per 1,000 live births)

120

100

20%

Nigeria

Pakistan

40%

India

100

120

140

Baseline in under-ﬁve mortality rate

(deaths per 1,000 live births)

Source: Lives Saved Tool (LiST) analysis by Johns Hopkins University, 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Even in low-mortality countries, much work

remains to give every child a fair chance of

survival

By 2015, 116 countries worldwide have already met the

SDG target of an under-five mortality rate of 25 or fewer

deaths per 1,000 live births; only 67 countries had reached

that benchmark in 1990. This group of countries, generally

considered to be ‘low-mortality’ countries, nevertheless

reflects considerable variation in levels of child mortality.

With rates ranging from 2 to 25 deaths per 1,000 live

births, if current trends continue, 6 million children under 5

will die in these countries over the next 15 years.

As in high-mortality countries, the 6 million children who

will die in low-mortality countries will disproportionately

come from disadvantaged backgrounds and communities.

Tracking and, more importantly, closing these equity gaps

requires strong civil registration systems that can produce

timely, accurate and disaggregated data.

Disaggregated data from Brazil provide a striking example

of the importance of moving beyond national averages in

order to address inequities. Brazil successfully met the MDG

target of a two-thirds reduction in under-five mortality. It also

has already met the SDG target for child mortality and now

has an under-five mortality rate of 16 per 1,000 live births.

This low national rate reflects progress over the 1990 to

2015 period. During that time, some equity gaps narrowed

between the northeast and the south of the country.

An analysis of mortality at the state level in Brazil,

however, reveals that notable differences in mortality

persist. Breaking the averages down further to the

municipal level reveals even greater disparities (Figure 44).

More than 1,000 of the country’s roughly 5,500

municipalities have successfully lowered their under-five

mortality to just five deaths per 1,000 live births — among

the best rates in the world. In 32 municipalities, however,

the under-five mortality rate is a staggering 16 times

higher, at 80 deaths or more per 1,000 births. If those

municipalities were treated as a country, they would rank

in the bottom 30 globally for under-five mortality.

Strong political will and the continued production of high-

quality disaggregated data have allowed the government

to effectively target and narrow equity gaps in Brazil.

Similar disparities are found on geographic, ethnic, income

and other lines in low-mortality countries across the world.

Eliminating those disparities will require deeper levels

of political commitment and sustained investments in

reliable, timely and disaggregated data.

█

FIG. 44

High-quality disaggregated data in Brazil enable more effective programming to tackle inequities

Under-five mortality rates in Brazil, 2015

Country level

State level

Municipality level

This map does not reflect a position by UNICEF on the legal status of any country or territory or the delimitation of any frontiers.

Source: Ministry of Health — Department of Informatics — DATASUS

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

The work required to close equity gaps and reach the

SDG target is substantial. The progress of the past 25

years, however, offers promise for the SDG agenda.

It also offers evidence that, with accelerated progress

and concerted effort, the future we want for the world’s

children is within reach.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

4| A promise renewed

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

4 | A promise renewed

Since its launch in 2012,

A Promise Renewed

has brought new energy and focus to global

efforts to eliminate preventable maternal and

child mortality. One hundred and seventy-eight

national governments

countries have signed a pledge committing

have pledged to take

to take action to address maternal and child

concerted action to

mortality. Over 30 countries have taken their

prevent maternal and

child deaths

commitment a step further, carrying out

A Promise Renewed

country launches, which

frequently include announcements of new commitments and sharpened strategies for

addressing maternal and child mortality.

This chapter includes examples of the ways in which a few countries are taking action in

line with the three core principles of

A Promise Renewed:

fostering political commitment,

strengthening public accountability and promoting social mobilization for child survival.

178

Political commitment is producing meaningful action to reduce

maternal and child mortality

Political will and national commitment are important elements for accelerating country

progress on maternal and child survival.

As part of their commitment to

A Promise

Renewed,

governments have taken ownership, made public commitments and followed

through by implementing evidence-based, well-resourced, targeted programmes. Three

examples offer more detail about the ways in which political commitments have yielded

concrete results.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

REACHING THE UNIMMUNIZED AND TRANSFORMING DELIVERY ROOMS IN INDIA

As one of the co-convenors of the 2012 Call to Action Summit in

Washington, D.C.,

India

has played a key role in

A Promise Renewed

and, in recent years, has achieved substantial reductions in child

mortality. After taking action to strengthen relevant policies and

increasing budgetary allocations, India is now focusing on concrete

actions to improve maternal and child survival.

Aware that almost 8.9 million Indian children do not benefit from

all seven vaccines available in their Expanded Programme on

Immunization, the government launched Mission

Indradhanush

(Mission Rainbow) at the end of 2014 with the aim of fully immunizing

90 per cent of children by 2020.

In phase 1, Mission

Indradhanush

is targeting the 201 districts that account

for around 50 per cent of all unimmunized children in the country. Its goal

is both to strengthen the immunization systems in these districts and

to ensure that unvaccinated children are covered by special vaccination

drives. In just four rounds of such drives between April and July 2015, 2

million additional children were vaccinated, representing 22 per cent of

partially immunized or unvaccinated children.

In the province of West Bengal, meanwhile, the government launched

a pilot programme to improve the quality of care in maternity labour

rooms handling large numbers of deliveries in remote areas. The

programme provides hands-on training and support, while seeking to

make labour rooms more patient- and staff-friendly by improving their

privacy and cleanliness.

Under the pilot programme, each facility carries out an intensive three-

day exercise for its entire team to build skills and to identify ways

to improve the organization and environment of the labour room and

maternity ward. Follow-up visits are conducted, led by members of the

Society of Midwives of India.

The early results of this initiative are encouraging. In the participating

facilities, privacy measures and care practices have improved. Care

improvements include using autoclaves to sterilize equipment,

handwashing practices, refrigerated storage of oxytocin, active

management of the third stage of labour, birth doses of vaccines and

using partographs to record key data. This initiative will now be scaled

up and expanded to other districts.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

SCALING UP INTEGRATED LIFESAVING INTERVENTIONS IN ETHIOPIA

Ethiopia,

another co-convenor of the 2012 Child Survival Call to Action

Summit, also achieved impressive progress on child survival during

the MDG era. It cut under-five mortality by 71 per cent between 1990

and 2015 and met the MDG 4 target three years ahead of schedule.

Its success was underwritten by its Health Extension Programme, a

force of more than 38,000 rural and urban health extension workers

and an even greater number of community health volunteers. These

cadres offer high-impact interventions — such as integrated maternal,

newborn and child health care, community case management of

newborn sepsis, malaria, pneumonia, diarrhoea, and severe acute

malnutrition — in 95 per cent of the countries 16,000 health posts.

Efforts to strengthen the continuum of care have also focused on

improving access to, and the quality and implementation of, basic

emergency obstetric and newborn care practices.

In its newly developed National Health Service Transformation Plan

and Newborn and Child Survival Strategy for 2015-2020, Ethiopia has

prioritized interventions that focus on newborn care and improving

routine immunization. The success of this plan will also rely on

Ethiopia’s Health Extension Programme.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

OFFERING HEALTH INSURANCE TO THE POOR IN THE PHILIPPINES

Despite the fact that the

Philippines

reduced under-five mortality from

40 per 1,000 live births to just 28 between 2000 and 2015, progress

has slowed in recent years, largely due to persistently high numbers of

neonatal deaths. Responding to this challenge, the Philippines Government

launched “A

Promise Renewed

for Universal Health Care” in April 2014,

seeking to expand access to health and nutrition services for mothers and

children. In addition, the Government has significantly increased the health

sector budget, primarily directed towards universal health care, including

provision of health insurance for low-income families.

With the support of partners, PhilHealth — the government’s national

health insurance agency — has recently developed two important

evidence-based and equity-focused healthcare benefit packages. The first,

launched in February 2015, is, a Primary Health Care Package, which is

now providing coverage to 34 million beneficiaries, including 11 million

children and adolescents. The second is a Benefit Package for Premature

Newborns, which covers interventions from the early stages of pregnancy

right through to postnatal care.

PhilHealth is now working to add additional coverage in order to

scale up evidence-based, equity-focused interventions for mothers

and children. This includes reviewing and revising the existing

PhilHealth MDG programmes, including a Maternity Package and

a Benefit Package for TB, Malaria and HIV/AIDS as well as design

and implementation of a health-insurance package for children with

disabilities.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

New tools for accountability are

being adopted across the world

In line with the core principles of

A Promise Renewed,

many countries have put in place mechanisms to

strengthen accountability by monitoring progress against

national commitments. One of the most effective

approaches has been the use of scorecards — colour-

coded snapshot summaries of progress against key

commitments, tracking progress at local and national

levels. The examples that follow provide a small

sampling of the ways in which a number of countries

are improving accountability through this simple and

effective tool.

SPURRING COMMITMENT AND ACCOUNTABILITY WITH CHILD HEALTH SCORECARDS

Child health scorecards display progress against a number of indicators

from across the reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH)

spectrum, using colour-coding (red, yellow and green) to indicate levels of

progress.

RMNCH scorecards generally utilize readily available data, presented in a

clear, accessible way. This makes them powerful tools for advocacy and

accountability and can foster healthy competition for improvements at all

levels of government.

Afghanistan

carried out a country launch of

A Promise Renewed

in May

2015, issuing the Kabul Declaration for Maternal and Child Health and

introducing a national RMNCH scorecard. Afghanistan’s scorecard contains

16 provincial indicators and showcases progress in each of the country’s

34 provinces. Provincial scorecards have also been produced and now

monitor progress down to the district level. The scores are updated every

quarter, giving provincial managers benchmarks against which to measure

progress.

Ghana,

an RMNCH scorecard was introduced across the country’s 10

regions in November 2014. Following the launch of the scorecard, health

officials at all levels have been asked to commit to specific, time-bound

targets against one or more indicators. During the last quarter of 2014 and

first quarter of 2015, 95 action commitments were made by governments

at various levels. These include commitments around actions such as

distributing vitamin A supplies, providing training to vaccination personnel,

and carrying out orientations for regional and district scorecard staff,

among others. As of mid-2015, 85 of the 95 commitments had been

achieved and new commitments are now being created. Recognizing the

success of the scorecard approach, Ghana’s Ministry of Health is planning

a high-level launch of the scorecard in late 2015 to raise awareness and

build public accountability.

Malawi’s

RMNCH scorecard was first developed in 2013, but regular

updates did not begin until mid-2014. Since then, each of the country’s

26 districts conducted orientation sessions to provide guidance on using

and updating the scorecard. Civil society, faith-based organizations and

community representatives participate in district-level meetings where

scorecard results are discussed and challenges are identified. In a

number of districts, this approach has been key to building ownership and

accountability around local and national targets.

In the

United Republic of Tanzania,

the scorecard has been personally

endorsed by the country’s president, who emphasized at a meeting of

regional commissioners in the spring of 2015 that it would be used to track

their progress each quarter. This high-level political support has prompted

regional health officials to monitor progress closely and to take action to

address any bottlenecks.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Innovative approaches to social

mobilization are changing attitudes

and behaviours

Achieving progress on maternal and child survival

benefits from action and ownership by all parts of

society, including the public and private sectors, civil

society, communities, families and children. Increased

awareness about maternal and child health should

drive both demand for services as well as demands for

accountability. Social mobilization efforts have taken

many forms, including embedding important messages

in mass media productions.

USING SOAP OPERAS TO SHIFT ATTITUDES AND BEHAVIOURS ON KEY HEALTH ISSUES

The power of TV drama to explore social issues and influence behaviour —

an approach sometimes referred to as ‘edutainment’ — has already been

demonstrated in many countries, including Brazil, India, Mexico and the

Philippines, and is now playing an important role across sub-Saharan Africa.

A new soap opera, edited and produced in

Senegal,

is promoting debate

and raising awareness on issues relating to maternal and child health across

francophone Africa.

That’s Life

is the first TV drama intentionally designed to

explore issues related to child and maternal health in sub-Saharan Africa.

The first 26-episode season began in June 2015 and is available to 3

million cable subscribers in Senegal and across francophone Africa. In

September 2015,

That’s Life

will be expanded to cover 48 countries and,

from January 2016, will be available on 60 national TV channels, reaching

an estimated 150 million viewers.

The soap opera is set in an urban health centre and its dramatic intrigues

and comic moments are drawn from the challenges faced by health

professionals and patients — with a particular focus on women and

children. The main characters are midwives and the women with whom

they work. The plots developed in the series aim not just to provide

information but also to alter attitudes and behaviours related to maternal

and neonatal health, sexual and reproductive health and gender-based

violence.

That’s Life

is the result of a three-year collaboration between a

number of UN agencies, partner non-governmental organizations

and the French Government's Muskoka Fund. The soap opera is the

central element in a broader cross-media campaign that is promoting

debate on issues related to reproductive, maternal, newborn and

child health.

Turning

A Promise Renewed

into

a promise fulfilled

2015 is an important inflection point for work to end

preventable maternal and child deaths. It is a year to tally and

celebrate accomplishments; it is a year to take stock of lessons

learned; it is a year to set out a clear and bold vision for taking

on the challenges that remain.

As we move forward to a focus on the Sustainable

Development Goals and implement the UN Secretary-

General’s updated Global Strategy for Women’s, Children’s,

and Adolescents’ Health, the core principles of

A Promise

Renewed

remain central to achieving progress towards the

common goal of ending preventable maternal and child deaths.

At this inflection point, children’s chances of surviving and

thriving still vary dramatically both among and within countries.

The past 15 years of progress provide clear evidence about

what is needed to narrow those equity gaps in order to give

every child a fair chance. Efforts can and must be intensified to

reach the countries, communities and children still waiting for

the world’s promises to become reality.

The world we want is achievable. The next 15 years will be the

time to turn from renewing our promises to fulfilling them.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

References

All reasonable efforts have been made to verify the information contained in this publication. For any data updates subsequent to publication, please visit <data.

unicef.org>. Unless otherwise noted, data cited in this paper are drawn from internal analysis based on UNICEF global databases and on the United

Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME), 2015.

CHAPTER 1

United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation,

Levels and Trends in Child Mortality: Report 2015,

UNICEF, New York,

2015 (hereafter referred to as ‘UN IGME 2015’).

11 UNICEF analysis based on 2014 HIV and AIDS estimates from the

United Nations Joint Programme on HIV/ AIDS (UNAIDS).

12 De Cock, K.M., et al. ‘Prevention of Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission

in Resource-poor Countries: Translating research into policy and prac-

tice’,

JAMA,

vol. 283, no. 9, 1 March 2001, pp. 1175-1182.

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response,

UNAIDS, Geneva, 2015.

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al plan towards the elimination of new HIV infections among children by

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15 Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, World Health Organiza-

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2014 Progress Report on the Global

Plan Towards the Elimination of New HIV Infections among Children by

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16 World Health Organization,

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ter, Sanitation and Hygiene: Exposures and impacts in low- and mid-

dle-income countries,

WHO, Geneva, 2014.

17 Munos, M.K, C.L. Fischer Walker and R.E. Black, ‘The Effect of Oral

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Mortality’,

International Journal of Epidemiology,

vol. 39, pp. i75–87,

2010, doi: 10.1093/ije/dyq025.

18 World Health Organization and United Nations Children’s Fund, 'Joint

Statement: Clinical management of acute diarrhoea', WHO, Geneva,

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19 Milliner, John. AMP The Alliance for Malaria Prevention. The AMP

Net Mapping Project, 2nd quarter 2015. http://allianceformalariapre-

vention.com/working-groups-view.php?id=19, 2015.

20 D’Acremont, V., C. Lengeler and B. Genton, ‘Reduction in the Propor-

tion of Fevers Associated with Plasmodium Falciparum Parasitaemia

in Africa: A systematic review’,

Malaria Journal,

vol. 9, p. 240, 2010.

21 World Health Organization.

Guidelines for the Treatment of Malaria,

Second Edition,

WHO, Geneva, 2010, p. 194.

CHAPTER 2

There is considerable debate about what characterizes a fragile

country or context. However, for ease of comparison, this report

uses the definition and list of countries compiled by the World Bank

in its FY2016 Harmonized List of Fragile Situations. According to the

World Bank’s definition, "Fragile Situations” have either (a) a har-

monized average CPIA (country policy and institutional assessment)

country rating of 3.2 or less, or (b) the presence of a United Nations

and/or regional peacekeeping or peacebuilding mission during

the past three years. More details on the classification standards

are available at <http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/pubdocs/public-

doc/2015/7/700521437416355449/FCSlist-FY16-Final-712015.pdf>,

accessed on 5 August 2015.

Dahn, Bernice, and Judith Rodin, ‘Ebola-Free but Not Resilient’,

The New York Times, 10 May 2015.

United Nations Children’s Fund,

Progress for Children Beyond

Averages: Learning from the MDGs,

UNICEF, New York, 2015.

Ibid.

These are 2015 provisional estimates from WHO and the Child Health

Epidemiology Reference Group (hereafter referred to as ‘WHO and

CHERG provisional estimates 2015’).

United Nations Children’s Fund, World Health Organization,

Every

Newborn: An action plan to end preventable newborn deaths,

2013.

www.everynewborn.org, <www.everynewborn.org>, accessed 26 Au-

gust 2015.

Bhutta, Z.A., et al., for

The Lancet

Newborn Interventions Review

Group and The Lancet Every Newborn Study Group, ‘Can Available

Interventions End Preventable Deaths in Mothers, Newborn Babies,

and Stillbirths, and at What Cost?’, The Lancet, published online 20

May 2014,

<http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60792-3>, accessed 26

August 2015.

World Health Organization, ‘Weekly Epidemiological Record — Hep-

atitis B Vaccine’, 2 October 2009, WHO, Geneva.

Chapter 3

<https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/7891

Transforming%20Our%20World.pdf>, p. 14, accessed 18 August 2015.

Under this scenario, mortality estimates are based on each country

maintaining its 2015 under-five mortality rate throughout the 2016-

2030 period (taking into account projected population growth over

that period).

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Under this scenario, mortality estimates are based on each country

maintaining its average annual rate of reduction from 2000-2015

throughout the 2016-2030 period (taking into account projected popu-

lation growth over that period).

Under this scenario, a country’s average annual rate of reduction be-

tween 2016 and 2030 is set so that it achieves 25 under-five deaths

per 1,000 live births in 2030 (taking into account projected population

growth over that period). If a country will achieve the target before

2030 based on its current trend, the analysis uses that country’s cur-

rent trend and allows the rate to drop below 25, but not below the

minimum rate observed in the world today.

The analysis considered changes to child mortality if each high-bur-

den country scaled up coverage of a variety of child survival interven-

tions at the fastest scale-up rate that had previously been achieved

within groups of interventions with similar historic rates of coverage

change. For further details on the methodology, see: Walker, N., et

al., ‘Patterns in Coverage of Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health

Interventions: Projections of neonatal and under-5 mortality to 2035’,

The Lancet, vol. 382, no. 9897, 2013, pp. 1029-1038. The analyses

were carried out using the Lives Saved Tool by Adrienne Clermont

and Yvonne Tam with support from Neff Walker at the Institute for

International Programs, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public

Health.

Health services in the scale-up model included interventions such as

skilled birth attendance, vitamin A supplementation and vaccinations.

The 63 countries represent 88 per cent of global under-five deaths.

The analyses were carried out using the Lives Saved Tool by Adrienne

Clermont and Yvonne Tam with support from Neff Walker at the Insti-

tute for International Programs, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of

Public Health.

Chapter 4

United Nations Children’s Fund and World Health Organization,

Countdown to 2015 — Maternal, Newborn and Child Survival. Ful-

filling the health agenda for women and children — the 2014 report,

WHO, Geneva, 2014.

Ethiopia Ministry of Health, Ethiopian Public Health Institute, United

Nations Children’s Fund, Countdown to 2015:

Ethiopia's progress to-

wards reduction in under-five mortality.

UNICEF Ethiopia, Addis Aba-

ba, 2014.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Tables

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Tables

Country and regional estimates of child mortality and causes of under-five deaths

DEFINITIONS OF INDICATORS

Under-five mortality rate (U5MR)

— Probability of dying between birth and exactly 5 years of age, expressed per 1,000 live births.

Infant mortality rate (IMR)

— Probability of dying between birth and exactly 1 year of age, expressed per 1,000 live births.

Neonatal mortality rate (NMR)

— Probability of dying in the first month of life, expressed per 1,000 live births

MAIN DATA SOURCES

Mortality rates and number of deaths — UN IGME 2015.

Cause of death — WHO and Maternal and Child Epidemiology Estimation Group (MCEE) provisional estimates 2015

EXPLANATION OF SYMBOLS

– Data not available.

REGIONAL CLASSIFICATION

Sub-Saharan Africa

Eastern and Southern Africa; West and Central Africa; Djibouti; Sudan

Eastern and Southern Africa

Angola; Botswana; Burundi; Comoros; Eritrea; Ethiopia; Kenya; Lesotho; Madagascar;

Malawi; Mauritius; Mozambique; Namibia; Rwanda; Seychelles; Somalia; South Africa;

South Sudan; Swaziland; Uganda; United Republic of Tanzania; Zambia; Zimbabwe

West and Central Africa

Benin; Burkina Faso; Cabo Verde; Cameroon; Central African Republic; Chad; Congo; Côte

d’Ivoire; Democratic Republic of the Congo; Equatorial Guinea; Gabon; Gambia; Ghana;

Guinea; Guinea-Bissau; Liberia; Mali; Mauritania; Niger; Nigeria; Sao Tome and Principe;

Senegal; Sierra Leone; Togo

Middle East and North Africa

Algeria; Bahrain; Djibouti; Egypt; Iran (Islamic Republic of); Iraq; Jordan; Kuwait; Leba-

non; Libya; Morocco; Oman; Qatar; Saudi Arabia; State of Palestine; Sudan; Syrian Arab

Republic; Tunisia; United Arab Emirates; Yemen

South Asia

Afghanistan; Bangladesh; Bhutan; India; Maldives; Nepal; Pakistan; Sri Lanka

East Asia and the Pacific

Brunei Darussalam; Cambodia; China; Cook Islands; Democratic People’s Republic of

Korea; Fiji; Indonesia; Kiribati; Lao People’s Democratic Republic; Malaysia; Marshall

Islands; Micronesia (Federated States of); Mongolia; Myanmar; Nauru; Niue; Palau;

Papua New Guinea; Philippines; Republic of Korea; Samoa; Singapore; Solomon Islands;

Thailand; Timor-Leste; Tonga; Tuvalu; Vanuatu; Viet Nam

Latin America and the Caribbean

Antigua and Barbuda; Argentina; Bahamas; Barbados; Belize; Bolivia (Plurinational State

of); Brazil; Chile; Colombia; Costa Rica; Cuba; Dominica; Dominican Republic; Ecuador; El

Salvador; Grenada; Guatemala; Guyana; Haiti; Honduras; Jamaica; Mexico; Nicaragua;

Panama; Paraguay; Peru; Saint Kitts and Nevis; Saint Lucia; Saint Vincent and the

Grenadines; Suriname; Trinidad and Tobago; Uruguay; Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CEE/CIS)

Albania; Armenia; Azerbaijan; Belarus; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Bulgaria; Croatia; Geor-

gia; Kazakhstan; Kyrgyzstan; Montenegro; Republic of Moldova; Romania; Russian Fed-

eration; Serbia; Tajikistan; the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia; Turkey; Turkmen-

istan; Ukraine; Uzbekistan

Least developed countries/areas

(Classified as such by the United Nations High Representative for the Least Developed

Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States [UN-

OHRLLS]). Afghanistan; Angola; Bangladesh; Benin; Bhutan; Burkina Faso; Burundi; Cam-

bodia; Central African Republic; Chad; Comoros; Democratic Republic of the Congo; Dji-

bouti; Equatorial Guinea; Eritrea; Ethiopia; Gambia; Guinea; Guinea-Bissau; Haiti; Kiribati;

Lao People’s Democratic Republic; Lesotho; Liberia; Madagascar; Malawi; Mali; Mauri-

tania; Mozambique; Myanmar; Nepal; Niger; Rwanda; Sao Tome and Principe; Senegal;

Sierra Leone; Solomon Islands; Somalia; South Sudan; Sudan; Timor-Leste; Togo; Tuvalu;

Uganda; United Republic of Tanzania; Vanuatu; Yemen; Zambia

For details on the classification of countries by income group as defined by the World

Bank, please see: <http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-andlending-groups>.

final status of Jammu and Kashmir has not yet been agreed upon by the parties. The final boundary between the Sudan and South Sudan has not yet been determined. The final status of the Abyei area has not yet been determined.

For more information about country level source information, disaggregated data and trends on the indicators presented in this

report, as well as on additional indicators, please check UNICEF global databases available at data.unicef.org

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Country estimates of child mortality and causes of under-five deaths

Under-

five

mortality

rank

Under-five mortality rate

(deaths per 1,000 live births)

Number of

under-five

deaths

(thousands)

Infant

mortality rate

(deaths per

1,000 live

births)

Number of

infant deaths

(thousands)

Neonatal

mortality rate

(deaths per

1,000 live

births)

Number of

neonatal

deaths

(thousands)

Countries and areas

Afghanistan

Albania

Algeria

Andorra

Angola

Antigua and Barbuda

Argentina

Armenia

Australia

Austria

Azerbaijan

Bahamas

Bahrain

Bangladesh

Barbados

Belarus

Belgium

Belize

Benin

Bhutan

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Botswana

Brazil

Brunei Darussalam

Bulgaria

Burkina Faso

Burundi

Cabo Verde

Cambodia

Cameroon

Canada

Central African Republic

Chad

Chile

China

Colombia

Comoros

Congo

Cook Islands

Costa Rica

Côte d'Ivoire

Croatia

Cuba

Cyprus

Czech Republic

Democratic People's

Republic of Korea

2015

1990

2000

2015

Decline (%)

1990–2015

Annual rate of

reduction

(%)

1990–2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

112

182

142

120

112

166

125

153

120

159

166

159

104

133

159

142

130

104

142

133

166

153

182

181

226

144

180

134

124

202

172

117

138

177

215

125

153

137

217

145

186

152

108

150

175

190

101

122

146

157

100

130

139

2.7

4.3

2.4

4.4

1.5

4.6

3.2

5.0

3.5

4.0

4.4

2.7

5.2

5.4

1.3

5.1

3.6

3.5

2.4

5.6

4.7

4.9

0.9

5.2

0.7

3.0

3.3

3.0

3.8

5.6

1.8

2.1

1.2

1.7

3.4

6.5

3.2

2.1

2.9

4.4

2.2

2.0

4.4

3.5

5.7

5.8

2.2

100

122

528

219

1634

169

119

182

123

134

100

108

103

104

115

116

105

363

181

1319

104

156

234

928

Numbers and percentages are rounded and therefore may not sum to totals. All calculations are based on unrounded numbers.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Country estimates of child mortality and causes of under-five deaths

Share of

neonatal

deaths in

under-five

deaths(%)

Pneumonia

Deaths among children under 5 years of age due to:

(%) 2013

Neonatal period (0–27 days)

Post-neonatal period (1–59 months)

Intrapartum

Pneumonia

Congenital

Diarrhoea

Malaria

Measles

Preterm

Tetanus

Sepsis

Injuries

Meningitis

Other

AIDS

Other

Total

1990 2015

Countries and areas

Afghanistan

Albania

Algeria

Andorra

Angola

Antigua and Barbuda

Argentina

Armenia

Australia

Austria

Azerbaijan

Bahamas

Bahrain

Bangladesh

Barbados

Belarus

Belgium

Belize

Benin

Bhutan

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Botswana

Brazil

Brunei Darussalam

Bulgaria

Burkina Faso

Burundi

Cabo Verde

Cambodia

Cameroon

Canada

Central African Republic

Chad

Chile

China

Colombia

Comoros

Congo

Cook Islands

Costa Rica

Côte d'Ivoire

Croatia

Cuba

Cyprus

Czech Republic

Democratic People's

Republic of Korea

100

Numbers and percentages are rounded and therefore may not sum to totals. All calculations are based on unrounded numbers.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Country estimates of child mortality and causes of under-five deaths

Under-

five

mortality

rank

Under-five mortality rate

(deaths per 1,000 live births)

Number of

under-five

deaths

(thousands)

Infant

mortality rate

(deaths per

1,000 live

births)

Number of

infant deaths

(thousands)

Neonatal

mortality rate

(deaths per

1,000 live

births)

Number of

neonatal

deaths

(thousands)

Countries and areas

Democratic Republic of the

Congo

Denmark

Djibouti

Dominica

Dominican Republic

Ecuador

Egypt

El Salvador

Equatorial Guinea

Eritrea

Estonia

Ethiopia

Fiji

Finland

France

Gabon

Gambia

Georgia

Germany

Ghana

Greece

Grenada

Guatemala

Guinea

Guinea-Bissau

Guyana

Haiti

Holy See

Honduras

Hungary

Iceland

India

Indonesia

Iran (Islamic Republic of)

Iraq

Ireland

Israel

Italy

Jamaica

Japan

Jordan

Kazakhstan

Kenya

Kiribati

Kuwait

Kyrgyzstan

Lao People's Democratic

Republic

Latvia

Lebanon

Lesotho

2015

1990

2000

2015

Decline (%)

1990–2015

Annual rate of

reduction

(%)

1990–2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

166

182

193

166

125

166

159

125

153

193

104

166

104

182

112

139

142

187

119

190

151

205

170

127

238

229

146

126

102

162

161

101

152

145

119

101

170

178

105

108

118

117

-24

-2

2.6

3.7

2.4

-0.9

2.7

3.9

5.1

2.8

4.7

7.8

5.0

1.1

4.3

3.0

2.4

3.6

5.6

3.3

2.9

4.0

2.7

4.1

3.7

3.6

1.7

3.0

4.2

4.7

3.9

4.5

5.2

2.1

3.8

4.3

4.1

2.7

3.4

2.9

5.3

2.9

2.2

2.9

4.5

3.6

3.8

5.5

-0.1

294

167

446

3357

395

110

100

305

184

1201

147

120

128

122

141

136

101

111

192

123

268

2338

286

233

130

946

125

135

1537

138

696

Numbers and percentages are rounded and therefore may not sum to totals. All calculations are based on unrounded numbers.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Country estimates of child mortality and causes of under-five deaths

Share of

neonatal

deaths in

under-five

deaths(%)

Pneumonia

Deaths among children under 5 years of age due to:

(%) 2015

Neonatal period (0–27 days)

Post-neonatal period (1–59 months)

Intrapartum

Pneumonia

Congenital

Diarrhoea

Malaria

Measles

Preterm

Tetanus

Sepsis

Injuries

Meningitis

Other

AIDS

Other

Total

1990 2015

Countries and areas

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Denmark

Djibouti

Dominica

Dominican Republic

Ecuador

Egypt

El Salvador

Equatorial Guinea

Eritrea

Estonia

Ethiopia

Fiji

Finland

France

Gabon

Gambia

Georgia

Germany

Ghana

Greece

Grenada

Guatemala

Guinea

Guinea-Bissau

Guyana

Haiti

Holy See

Honduras

Hungary

Iceland

India

Indonesia

Iran (Islamic Republic of)

Iraq

Ireland

Israel

Italy

Jamaica

Japan

Jordan

Kazakhstan

Kenya

Kiribati

Kuwait

Kyrgyzstan

Lao People's Democratic

Republic

Latvia

Lebanon

Lesotho

100

Numbers and percentages are rounded and therefore may not sum to totals. All calculations are based on unrounded numbers.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Country estimates of child mortality and causes of under-five deaths

Under-

five

mortality

rank

Under-five mortality rate

(deaths per 1,000 live births)

Number of

under-five

deaths

(thousands)

Infant

mortality rate

(deaths per

1,000 live

births)

Number of

infant deaths

(thousands)

Neonatal

mortality rate

(deaths per

1,000 live

births)

Number of

neonatal

deaths

(thousands)

Countries and areas

Liberia

Libya

Liechtenstein

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Madagascar

Malawi

Malaysia

Maldives

Mali

Malta

Marshall Islands

Mauritania

Mauritius

Mexico

Micronesia (Federated States of)

Monaco

Mongolia

Montenegro

Morocco

Mozambique

Myanmar

Namibia

Nauru

Nepal

Netherlands

New Zealand

Nicaragua

Niger

Nigeria

Niue

Norway

Oman

Pakistan

Palau

Panama

Papua New Guinea

Paraguay

Peru

Philippines

Poland

Portugal

Qatar

Republic of Korea

Republic of Moldova

Romania

Russian Federation

Rwanda

Saint Kitts and Nevis

Saint Lucia

2015

1990

2000

2015

Decline (%)

1990–2015

Annual rate of

reduction

(%)

1990–2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

120

159

193

148

139

153

112

120

166

159

166

153

182

125

104

159

166

142

182

104

130

133

130

112

255

161

242

254

118

108

240

110

141

328

213

139

152

182

109

174

220

114

171

227

187

112

184

115

109

-67

5.2

4.5

4.6

6.1

4.7

5.3

3.5

9.6

3.2

2.3

1.3

2.1

5.0

1.9

3.2

6.3

5.0

4.3

4.5

3.2

1.9

5.5

3.1

2.7

4.4

4.9

2.7

-2.0

4.8

4.9

2.1

3.2

2.4

1.8

3.3

6.2

2.9

4.8

5.6

3.8

2.9

3.0

4.9

4.0

5.2

4.0

1.8

106

115

140

121

133

849

593

118

750

432

170

143

131

160

138

126

106

502

459

484

351

201

281

240

245

Numbers and percentages are rounded and therefore may not sum to totals. All calculations are based on unrounded numbers.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Country estimates of child mortality and causes of under-five deaths

Share of

neonatal

deaths in

under-five

deaths(%)

Pneumonia

Deaths among children under 5 years of age due to:

(%) 2015

Neonatal period (0–27 days)

Post-neonatal period (1–59 months)

Intrapartum

Pneumonia

Congenital

Diarrhoea

Malaria

Measles

Preterm

Tetanus

Sepsis

Injuries

Meningitis

Other

AIDS

Other

Total

1990 2015

Countries and areas

Liberia

Libya

Liechtenstein

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Madagascar

Malawi

Malaysia

Maldives

Mali

Malta

Marshall Islands

Mauritania

Mauritius

Mexico

Micronesia (Federated States of)

Monaco

Mongolia

Montenegro

Morocco

Mozambique

Myanmar

Namibia

Nauru

Nepal

Netherlands

New Zealand

Nicaragua

Niger

Nigeria

Niue

Norway

Oman

Pakistan

Palau

Panama

Papua New Guinea

Paraguay

Peru

Philippines

Poland

Portugal

Qatar

Republic of Korea

Republic of Moldova

Romania

Russian Federation

Rwanda

Saint Kitts and Nevis

Saint Lucia

100

Numbers and percentages are rounded and therefore may not sum to totals. All calculations are based on unrounded numbers.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Country estimates of child mortality and causes of under-five deaths

Under-

five

mortality

rank

Under-five mortality rate

(deaths per 1,000 live births)

Number of

under-five

deaths

(thousands)

Infant

mortality rate

(deaths per

1,000 live

births)

Number of

infant deaths

(thousands)

Neonatal

mortality rate

(deaths per

1,000 live

births)

Number of

neonatal

deaths

(thousands)

Countries and areas

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

Samoa

San Marino

Sao Tome and Principe

Saudi Arabia

Senegal

Serbia

Seychelles

Sierra Leone

Singapore

Slovakia

Slovenia

Solomon Islands

Somalia

South Africa

South Sudan

Spain

Sri Lanka

State of Palestine

Sudan

Suriname

Swaziland

Sweden

Switzerland

Syrian Arab Republic

Tajikistan

Thailand

The former Yugoslav Republic

of Macedonia

Timor-Leste

Togo

Tonga

Trinidad and Tobago

Tunisia

Turkey

Turkmenistan

Tuvalu

Uganda

Ukraine

United Arab Emirates

United Kingdom

United Republic of Tanzania

United States

Uruguay

Uzbekistan

Vanuatu

Venezuela (Bolivarian

Republic of)

Viet Nam

Yemen

Zambia

Zimbabwe

2015

1990

2000

2015

Decline (%)

1990–2015

Annual rate of

reduction

(%)

1990–2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

182

110

148

112

182

148

182

166

133

182

166

120

125

153

112

139

148

166

148

133

110

111

140

264

180

253

128

108

176

146

187

165

126

191

135

236

174

182

106

128

110

121

148

131

163

106

120

137

1.2

2.3

5.3

3.4

4.5

4.4

5.8

0.8

3.1

4.2

3.5

5.5

1.4

1.1

1.6

4.0

3.9

3.1

3.0

2.4

3.2

0.8

3.3

3.0

4.2

3.5

4.4

7.6

4.8

2.5

1.1

1.6

5.6

6.8

2.3

3.0

4.9

3.1

3.5

3.2

4.9

2.2

3.3

2.4

1.0

2.7

3.4

4.4

0.3

100

104

151

178

157

108

150

132

111

100

113

109

Numbers and percentages are rounded and therefore may not sum to totals. All calculations are based on unrounded numbers.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Country estimates of child mortality and causes of under-five deaths

Share of

neonatal

deaths in

under-five

deaths(%)

Pneumonia

Deaths among children under 5 years of age due to:

(%) 2015

Neonatal period (0–27 days)

Post-neonatal period (1–59 months)

Intrapartum

Pneumonia

Congenital

Diarrhoea

Malaria

Measles

Preterm

Tetanus

Sepsis

Injuries

Meningitis

Other

AIDS

Other

Total

1990 2015

Countries and areas

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

Samoa

San Marino

Sao Tome and Principe

Saudi Arabia

Senegal

Serbia

Seychelles

Sierra Leone

Singapore

Slovakia

Slovenia

Solomon Islands

Somalia

South Africa

South Sudan

Spain

Sri Lanka

State of Palestine

Sudan

Suriname

Swaziland

Sweden

Switzerland

Syrian Arab Republic

Tajikistan

Thailand

The former Yugoslav Republic

of Macedonia

Timor-Leste

Togo

Tonga

Trinidad and Tobago

Tunisia

Turkey

Turkmenistan

Tuvalu

Uganda

Ukraine

United Arab Emirates

United Kingdom

United Republic of Tanzania

United States

Uruguay

Uzbekistan

Vanuatu

Venezuela (Bolivarian

Republic of)

Viet Nam

Yemen

Zambia

Zimbabwe

100

Numbers and percentages are rounded and therefore may not sum to totals. All calculations are based on unrounded numbers.

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Regional

estimates of child mortality and causes of under-five deaths

Under-five mortality rate

(deaths per 1,000 live births)

Decline

(%)

1990–

2015

Annual

rate of

reduction

(%)

1990–2015

Number of

under-five

deaths

(thousands)

Infant

mortality rate

(deaths per

1,000 live

births)

Number of

infant deaths

(thousands)

Neonatal

mortality rate

(deaths per

1,000 live

births)

Number of

neonatal

deaths

(thousands)

Share of neo-

natal deaths in

under-five

deaths (%)

Region

Sub-Saharan Africa

Eastern & Southern Africa

West & Central Africa

Middle East & North Africa

South Asia

East Asia & the Pacific

Latin America & the Caribbean

CEE/CIS

World

1990

2000

2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

180

167

198

129

154

140

172

3.1

3.7

2.8

3.6

4.7

4.4

4.1

3.0

3,871 2,947

1,736 1,068

2,031 1,789

659

324

4,687 1,870

2,532

632

354

12,749

538

196

108

5,945

108

103

116

2,343 2,018

1,082

740

1,195 1,216

491

261

3,306 1,481

1,967

500

284

8,924

449

167

4,450

994 1,027

458 402

502 586

273 172

2,129 1,065

1,271 270

255 102

156

5,106 2,682

Deaths among children under 5 years of age due to:

(%) 2015

Neonatal period (0–27 days)

Pneumonia

Intrapartum

Pneumonia

Congenital

Diarrhoea

Post-neonatal period (1–59 months)

Meningitis

Preterm

Tetanus

Malaria

Measles

Sepsis

Injuries

Other

AIDS

Sub-Saharan Africa

Eastern & Southern Africa

West & Central Africa

Middle East & North Africa

South Asia

East Asia & Pacific

Latin America & Caribbean

CEE/CIS

World

Estimates of

child mortality and causes of under-five deaths

by income

Under-five mortality rate

(deaths per 1,000 live births)

Decline

(%)

1990–

2015

Annual

rate of

reduction

(%)

1990–2015

Number of

under-five

deaths

(thousands)

Infant

mortality rate

(deaths per

1,000 live

births)

Number of

infant deaths

(thousands)

Neonatal

mortality rate

(deaths per

1,000 live

births)

Number of

neonatal

deaths

(thousands)

Share of neo-

natal deaths in

under-five

deaths (%)

Income level

Low income

Middle income

Lower middle income

Upper middle income

High income

World

1990

2000

2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

1990

2015

1990

Total

Region

Other

100

2015

187

120

150

3.6

3.2

3.3

4.3

3.3

3.0

2,555 1,667

9,933 4,170

7,188 3,492

2,745

678

261

108

12,749 5,945

113

1,555 1,173

7,151 3,186

4,973 2,647

2,178

539

217

8,924 4,450

669 596

4,303 2,028

2,919 1,713

1,384 316

134

5,106 2,682

Deaths among children under 5 years of age due to:

(%) 2015

Neonatal period (0–27 days)

Pneumonia

Intrapartum

Pneumonia

Congenital

Diarrhoea

Post-neonatal period (1–59 months)

Meningitis

Preterm

Tetanus

Malaria

Measles

Sepsis

Injuries

Other

AIDS

Low income

Middle income

Lower middle income

Upper middle income

High income

World

100

Numbers and percentages are rounded and therefore may not sum to totals. All calculations are based on unrounded numbers.

Total

Income level

Other

URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (2. samling) - Bilag 41: UNICEF-rapport: Committing to Child Survival - A Promise Renewed, Progress Report 2015

Published by UNICEF

United Nations

Children’s Fund

3 UN Plaza

New York, NY 10017

www.unicef.org

For the online edition,

scan this QR code or go to

www.apromiserenewed.org

ISBN: 978-92-806-4815-7

September 2015