Klima-, Energi- og Bygningsudvalget 2014-15 (1. samling)
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London
12 November 2014
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Signs of stress in the global energy system
Current calm in markets should not disguise difficult road ahead
Turmoil in the Middle East raises doubts over future oil balance
Resurgent debate over the security of gas supply to Europe
Mixed signals in run-up to crucial climate summit in Paris in 2015
Global CO
2
emissions still rising, with most emitters on an upward path
At $550 billion, fossil fuel subsidies over four-times those to renewables
Increasing emphasis on energy efficiency starting to bring results
Will change in global energy be led by policies, or driven by events?
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Changing dynamics of global demand
Energy demand by region
Mtoe 10 000
Rest of world
8 000
6 000
4 000
OECD
OECD
China
Rest of world
2 000
China
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
1990
As China slows, then India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and parts of Africa &
Latin America take over as the engines of global energy demand growth.
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United States holds a strong position
on energy costs
Weighted average cost of energy paid by consumers
$/toe 2 000
1 500
2008
2013
1 000
2040
500
European
Union
Japan
United
States
China
India
Economies face higher costs, but the pace of change varies: China overtakes the US,
costs double in India & remain high in the European Union & Japan
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Instability in the Middle East
a major risk to oil markets
Oil production growth
in United States, Canada, Brazil & the Middle East
mb/d +15
Increase to 2040: 14 mb/d
+10
Middle East
+5
Increase to 2040:
14 mb/d
Brazil
2013 2015
-5
2013 2015
2020
2030
2040
Canada
Net decline in output from other producers
2020
2030
2040
United States
The short-term picture of a well-supplied market should not obscure future risks as
demand rises to 104 mb/d
& reliance grows on Iraq & the rest of the Middle East
Iraq & the rest of the Middle East
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Looking ahead on the oil price
Against a backdrop of weaker demand, buoyant supply in North
America has brought prices down – but can it keep them down?
Lower prices are starting to curtail upstream spending plans, with
implications for future supply
Over time, squeezed cash flow would constrain the capacity of
North America & Brazil to act as engines of global supply growth
Sustained $80/barrel oil could provide some breathing space to
major oil importers, boosting demand & GDP
It would also accelerate reliance on low-cost producers in the
Middle East, some of which face major investment challenges
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Gas on the way to become first fuel,
with role of LNG on the rise
Main sources of regional LNG supply
bcm
600
Other
West Africa
500
400
300
Other
North Africa
Australia
West Africa
North Africa
Russia
East Africa
US & Canada
Australia
200
100
Southeast Asia
Middle East
Middle East
2012
2040
Share of LNG rises in global gas trade, pushed by a near-tripling in liquefaction sites:
LNG brings more integrated & secure gas markets, but only limited relief on prices
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Global coal demand leveling off
Global coal demand by key region
Mtce 7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
1980
India: 2
nd
largest coal
2005:
peak
US coal
1987: European coal demand
consumerdemand peak
by 2020
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
India
United States
Europe
2040
India
Chinese coal demand plateau
China
World
Other
Global coal demand growth slows rapidly due to more stringent environmental
policies, underlining the importance of high-efficiency plant & CCS to coal’s future
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Retirements add to the investment
challenge in the power sector
Power capacity by source, 2013-2040
GW 12 000
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
Retirements
Additions
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Coal
2 000
2013
2040
Despite limited demand growth, OECD countries account for
one-third of capacity additions – to compensate for retirements & to decarbonise
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Renewables overtake coal to become
the leading source of power
Renewables-based power generation and subsidies
Billion dollars (2013)
TWh
7 000
210
Hydropower
Generation
Wind and solar PV
Generation
Subsidies
(right axis)
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
2013 2020 2030 2040
2013 2020 2030 2040
180
150
120
90
60
30
Renewables supply half of the growth in global power demand;
wind & solar PV
subsidies decline from 2030 as costs fall & recent higher-cost commitments expire
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Nuclear capacity grows by 60%, but no
nuclear renaissance in sight
Net capacity change in key regions, 2013-2040
China
India
Russia
United States
Japan
European Union
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
GW
By 2040, an expanded nuclear fleet has saved almost 4 years of current CO
2
emissions
& for some countries has improved energy security & balances of energy trade
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Nuclear power: public concerns
must be heard and addressed
Retirements of nuclear power capacity
1990-2040
1990
2000
2010 2013 2020
2030
2040
Spent nuclear fuel
1971-2040: 705 thousand tonnes
50
United States
European
Union
100
38% of today’s
capacity to retire
by 2040
1971-2040
1971-2012
705
350 thousand tonnes
Canada
India
Russia
Korea
Other
150
GW
China
Japan
200
European Union
United States
Japan
Others
Key public concerns include plant operation, decommissioning & waste management;
By 2040, almost 200 reactors are retired
& the amount of spent fuel doubles
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The 2 °C goal – last chance in Paris?
World CO
2
budget for 2
°C
~2300 Gt
2012-2040
Trillion dollars (2013)
100%
75%
50%
25%
1900-2012
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Average annual low-carbon
investment, 2014-2040
CCS
Nuclear
Renewables
Efficiency
Share of budget used
in Central Scenario
2013
Central
Scenario
For 2°C
target
The entire global CO
2
budget to 2100 is used up by 2040 – Paris must send a strong
The entire global CO
2
budget to 2100 is used up by 2040
signal for increasing low-carbon investment four times beyond current levels
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Navigating a stormy energy future
Geopolitical & market uncertainties are set to propel energy
security high up the global energy agenda
Volatility in the Middle East raises short-term doubts on
investment & spells trouble for future oil supply
Nuclear power can play a role in energy security & carbon
abatement – but financing & public concerns are key issues
Without clear direction from Paris in 2015, the world is set for
warming well beyond the 2 °C goal
Far-sighted government policies are essential to steer the global
energy system on to a safer course
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www.worldenergyoutlook.org
email: [email protected]
© OECD/IEA 2014