Udenrigsudvalget 2014-15 (1. samling)
URU Alm.del Bilag 162
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Debate on possible independence of
Catalonia: key issues
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SN06933
3 November 2014
Rob Page
International Affairs and Defence Section
Catalonia, a prosperous region in north-eastern Spain, has an autonomous Parliament. At
present, parties in favour of Catalan independence have a majority in this Parliament, and
earlier this year the regional administration requested Madrid’s permission to hold a binding
referendum on independence. The Parliament of Spain rejected this proposal, and the
replacement “popular consultation” which was due to take place on 9 November has been
effectively blocked by the Constitutional Court. The Catalan Government still hopes to hold
some form of vote on 9 November, but it is unclear whether this will go ahead. This note
provides an overview of recent developments and key issues in the debate.
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 URU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (1. samling) - Bilag 162: Henvendelse af 4. maj 2015 om folkeafstemning om selvstændighed i Catalonien
Contents
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Introduction
History of Catalan Parliament
Elections in 2010 and 2012: towards a secessionist majority
The view from Madrid
Proposals for referendum
Polling
The European question
3
3
3
5
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1
Introduction
Catalonia, a prosperous region in north-eastern Spain, has an autonomous Parliament. At
present, parties in favour of Catalan independence have a majority in this Parliament, and
earlier this year the regional administration requested Madrid’s permission to hold a binding
referendum on independence. The Parliament of Spain rejected this proposal, and the
replacement “popular consultation” which was due to take place on 9 November has been
effectively blocked by the Constitutional Court. The Catalan Government still hopes to hold
some form of vote on 9 November, but it is unclear whether this will go ahead. This note
provides an overview of recent developments and key issues in the debate.
2
History of Catalan Parliament
The process of devolution to Catalonia began in 1980 with the establishment of the
autonomous regional Parliament. In recent years it has been granted greater powers; Europa
World Plus provides a good overview of these developments:
In September 2005 the Catalan Parliament overwhelmingly approved the draft of a
revised Statute of Autonomy, to replace the existing document which had been in force
since 1979. The proposed statute provoked considerable controversy elsewhere in the
country over its definition of Catalonia as a ‘nation’and its provision for greater fiscal
and judicial independence. In March 2006 the Congress of Deputies approved a
revised version of the statute that significantly reduced the extent of financial
independence that would be granted to Catalonia, despite the opposition of ERC,
which favoured full independence, and the PP, which claimed that the statute violated
the Constitution. The new Statute of Autonomy was approved by 73.2% of voters in a
referendum held in Catalonia in June, and came into force in August. Meanwhile, in
July the PP submitted an appeal to the Constitutional Court alleging that a number of
the statute’s articles were unconstitutional, in particular the definition of Catalonia as a
‘nation’, the privileged status afforded to the Catalan language and the provisions for
judicial independence. In its ruling of July 2010 the Constitutional Court upheld the
majority of the statute, although it declared unconstitutional or ordered the
reinterpretation of some 41 articles; notably, it allowed the use of the term ‘nation’ to
refer to the region’s historical and cultural identity but ruled that it could have no
constitutional meaning. On the following day more than 1m. people attended a
demonstration in Barcelona in favour of Catalan autonomy and against the court’s
decision.
1
3
Elections in 2010 and 2012: towards a secessionist majority
The main political parties in Catalonia are as follows:
Parties exclusively or predominantly in favour of Catalan independence
o
Convergence and Union (coalition of the liberal Democratic Convergence of
Catalonia and the centre-right Democratic Union of Catalonia)
o
Republican Left of Catalonia (left-wing party)
o
Popular Unity Candidates
Parties exclusively or predominantly opposed to Catalan independence
o
Socialist Party of Catalonia (allied to Spain’s main centre-left party)
o
Popular Party of Catalonia (allied to Spain’s main centre-right party)
1
"The Autonomous Communities",
Europa World Plus
[accessed 10 July 2014]
3
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o
o
Initiative for Catalonia Greens – United and Alternative Left (generally
opposed to independence but in favour of a referendum on the issue, and of
further devolution)
Citizens – Party of the Citizenry (Spanish nationalist party, strongly opposed
to Catalan independence)
2
Some parties are explicitly pro-independence (such as the Republican Left of Catalonia),
some are explicitly anti-independence (such as the Citizens – Party of the Citizenry), but
many others hold a position which is more ambiguous. As an example, Artur Mas, the leader
of Convergence and Union and President of the
Generalitat
(Head of Government) of
Catalonia, is a fairly recent convert to the cause of Catalan independence. Historically he had
stopped short of supporting full independence, preferring greater devolution.
3
Elections to the Catalan Parliament were held in 2010 and 2012. In 2010, a Convergence
and Union minority administration took office, replacing the previous administration led by the
Socialist Party of Catalonia. In 2012, Convergence and Union lost seats but remained the
largest party, forming another minority administration. In addition, smaller pro-independence
parties gained seats. As a consequence the total number of seats held by pro-independence
parties increased. The table below provides an overview of 2012 the election result.
4
Change
from
Seats
2010
Parties exclusively or predominantly in favour of Catalan independence
Convergence and Union
50
-12
Republican Left of Catalonia
21
+11
Popular Unity Candidates
3
+3
Parties exclusively or predominantly opposed to Catalan independence
Socialist Party of Catalonia
20
-8
Popular Party of Catalonia
19
+1
Initiative for Catalonia Greens - United and Alternative
Left
13
+3
Citizens - Party of the Citizenry
9
+6
Source: adapted from Generalitat of Catalonia,
Eleccions al Parlament de Catalunya
2012
and
2010
In general, Catalonia has seen support for independence surge in recent years. Economic
arguments feature prominently in the pro-independence movement: as one of Spain’s
wealthiest regions, Catalonia is often seen to be “footing the bill” for the profligacy of other
regions. In 2008-09, the Spanish Government’s decision to sell Spain’s state electricity
company to an Italian corporation, rather than a rival Catalan bidder, provoked considerable
resentment in Catalonia.
5
The extent of pro-independence feeling became apparent on 11
September 2012, when a large-scale march took place on the streets of Barcelona. The
march was described as “a feel-good and positive project, purging traditional pro-
2
3
Generalitat of Catalonia,
Eleccions al Parlament de Catalunya 2012
[accessed 10 July 2014]
"Exclusive - Catalan leader says independence vote must go ahead",
Reuters,
4 June 2014.
4
"The Autonomous Communities",
Europa World Plus
[accessed 10 July 2014]
5
"The nuclear options of Catalonia",
openDemocracy,
20 September 2012.
4
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independence of its most strident anti-Spanish elements.”
6
Shortly before this march, an
opinion poll showed a majority of Catalans in favour of independence for the first time.
7
4
The view from Madrid
Both of Spain’s main parties are opposed to Catalan independence, though the opposition
Socialists are more open to further devolution than are the governing, centre-right Popular
Party. As Reuters has recently explained:
In the white paper […] last year, Socialists argued a new constitution should change
Spain's territorial model into a federal state that explicitly recognises the historical,
cultural and linguistic differences of Catalonia, the Basque country and Galicia.
The idea is to address weaknesses in the 1978 Constitution, which critics say diluted
self-rule for Catalonia and the Basques by trying to treat all 17 autonomous regions
equally, even those with no historical quest for nationhood.
It also proposes making the Senate - one of Spain's most criticized institutions - into a
body that represents the interests of 17 regions - another way to address Catalonia's
grievances.
[…]
Rajoy is resisting debate on reform. Officials close to him say his view is that a new
constitution wouldn't satisfy Catalans who want to secede.
8
5
5.1
Attempts to hold a vote on independence
Attempt to hold a binding referendum
Following the 2012 election, the Republican Left of Catalonia agreed to support the
proposals of the Convergence and Union minority administration for a referendum on
Catalan independence.
9
On 12 December 2013, Artur Mas proposed that the referendum
would take place on 9 November 2014, comprising the following two questions:
Do you want Catalonia to become a state?
[if yes] Do you want that state to be independent?
10
The Catalan Parliament duly voted in favour of Catalan self-determination on 23 January
2013.
11
However, on 26 March 2014, Spain’s constitutional court declared the proposed
referendum to be unconstitutional.
12
Subsequently, on 8 April 2014, the Spanish Parliament
voted to reject the Catalan Parliament’s petition to allow a binding referendum.
13
6
7
"Separatism in times of crisis in Spain: the search for a future",
openDemocracy,
18 September 2012.
"Homage to Catalonia (revisited)",
openDemocracy,
14 September 2012.
8
"Spain's popular prince must charm Catalonia as king",
Reuters,
18 June 2014.
9
"Catalonia referendum set for 2014",
Financial Times,
19 December 2012.
10
"Political parties announce date for vote on Catalonia independence",
CNN,
12 December 2013.
11
"Catalan parliament declaration pushes self-determination",
CNN,
23 January 2014.
12
"Spain Says Catalonia Can't Vote for Independence, But Catalans Will Go Ahead Anyway",
TIME Magazine,
26
March 2014.
13
"Spain's parliament rejects Catalan independence bid",
The Telegraph,
9 April 2014.
5
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5.2
Attempt to hold a non-binding ‘popular consultation’
Following the Spanish Parliament’s decision, Reuters reported that:
[Artur Mas] said in the coming weeks the Catalonian regional parliament would pass a
law setting rules for a popular consultation to be held instead.
This is a non-binding vote which will not lead to a unilateral declaration of
independence.
14
The ‘popular consultation’ was to go ahead on the same date as the originally-planned
referendum, and was to consist of the same two questions.
15
On 19 September 2014, the
Catalan Parliament passed a law giving President Mas the power to call this ‘popular
consultation.’
16
Mas did so on 27 September, but the Spanish Government immediately
called on the Constitutional Court to block the consultation.
17
On 29 September, the Court agreed to hear the Spanish Government’s case, meaning that
the consultation – and the law giving President Mas the power to call it – were to be
suspended for five months pending a final decision.
18
So whilst the Court has not formally
issued a decision, it has in effect – by agreeing to hear the Spanish Government’s case –
ruled that the consultation scheduled for 9 November cannot take place. On 13 October,
following these developments, President Mas officially announced that the planned
consultation would no longer take place. In doing so he incurred the wrath of Republican Left
of Catalonia, whose representatives urged the Catalan Government to press ahead with the
consultation in defiance of the Constitutional Court.
19
5.3
The third attempt
On 14 October, the day after the planned consultation was officially cancelled, Mas
announced that a form of consultation would still take place, albeit “in a different form from
what we had planned.” It was announced that the referendum would be organised by
volunteers rather than the Catalan Government’s civil servants, and that it would be
conducted without a formal electoral roll.
20
On 31 October, the Spanish Government once again called on the Constitutional Court to
block the consultation. The Court has not yet decided whether to hear the Spanish
Government’s case, but a decision is expected on 4 November. As before, if the Court
agrees to hear the case, the consultation will have to be suspended pending a final
decision.
21
14
15
"Exclusive - Catalan leader says independence vote must go ahead",
Reuters,
4 June 2014.
Ibid.
16
"Catalonia's parliament paves the way for November vote on independence",
Guardian, 19 September 2014
17
"Spanish government asks court to block Catalan referendum",
Guardian, 29 September 2014
18
"Catalonia independence referendum halted by Spain's constitutional court",
Guardian, 29 September 2014
19
"Catalonia looks for alternatives after cancelling independence referendum",
Guardian, 14 October 2014
20
"Catalonia to hold unofficial poll instead of independence referendum",
Guardian, 14 October 2014
21
"Rajoy finally takes Catalonia's alternative and non-binding vote on independence to Constitutional Court",
Catalan News Agency,
31 October 2014
6
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6
Polling
Until recently the pro-independence campaign was ahead in the polls. However, a poll
published in El Mundo in September 2014 indicated that momentum had shifted away from
the independence movement. The table below shows the results of this recent poll, together
with a poll from February 2014 (for the ‘8 al dia’ programme) which showed the pro-
independence campaign ahead:
22
Sep
2014
34.6%
4.5%
2.3%
39.5%
19.2%
Feb
2014
40.7%
3.8%
3.5%
24.4%
27.5%
Yes to statehood; yes to independence
Yes to statehood; no to independence
Yes to statehood; undecided on
independence
No to statehood
Undecided/Abstention
Various local referendums have taken place in towns and cities across Catalonia in recent
years. In one such referendum on 10 April 2011, 90% of voters in Barcelona backed
statehood – though turnout was only 21%. Other local referendums have had similar
results.
23
7
The European question
Most supporters of Catalan independence are also strongly pro-European: the September
2012 march took place under the banner: “Catalonia, a State of Europe.”
24
Underlying the
marchers’ sentiments was the fear that an independent Catalonia might not be admitted to
the EU: Catalan accession would require modification of the Lisbon Treaty, which would in
turn require unanimous approval by all member States (including Spain).
25
On 16 September
2013, the Spanish Vice-President of the European Commission, Joaquin Almunia, stated that
an independent Catalonia would not automatically become an EU member.
26
According to Reuters:
Mas said that if a large majority of Catalans show they want independence, Europe
and the euro zone have to be practical and allow them to stay in the EU and the single
currency.
[…]
"If Catalonia ended up outside the euro and the EU that would be because Spain
wanted to take revenge and block them out of everything," he said.
27
22
"Un 48% quiere que Catalunya sea un Estado y sube el número de indecisos hasta casi un tercio",
La
Vanguardia,
6 February 2014;
"La secesión divide a los catalanes...",
El Mundo,
1 September 2014
23
"Catalan independence boost after Barcelona vote",
The Guardian,
11 April 2011.
24
"The nuclear options of Catalonia",
openDemocracy,
20 September 2012.
25
"Catalonia-Spain: Deadlock",
openDemocracy,
14 September 2012.
26
"EU commission: Catalonia must leave EU if it leaves Spain",
EU Observer,
17 September 2013.
27
"Exclusive - Catalan leader says independence vote must go ahead",
Reuters,
4 June 2014.
7