Europaudvalget 2014-15 (1. samling)
EUU Alm.del Bilag 468
Offentligt
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THE EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENT
STATE AND OUTLOOK 2015
 EUU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (1. samling) - Bilag 468: Miljøagenturets præsentation af miljørapport Europas miljø - tilstand og fremtidsudsigter 2015
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SOER 2015
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
A comprehensive assessment of past trends and future outlooks and of
opportunities to recalibrate policies, knowledge, investments and
innovations in line with the long-term vision of the 7
th
EAP.
SOER 2015 Synthesis report
SOER 2015 Assessment of global megatrends
Global
megatrends
11 briefings
European
briefings
25 briefings
Cross-country
comparisons
9 briefings
Countries and
regions
39+3 briefings
 EUU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (1. samling) - Bilag 468: Miljøagenturets præsentation af miljørapport Europas miljø - tilstand og fremtidsudsigter 2015
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The policy context
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Source: EEA Multiannual Work Programme 2014–2018
 EUU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (1. samling) - Bilag 468: Miljøagenturets præsentation af miljørapport Europas miljø - tilstand og fremtidsudsigter 2015
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Vision of the 7th Environment Action Programme
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
‘In
2050, we live well, within the planet's ecological limits.
Our prosperity and healthy environment stem from an innovative,
circular economy where nothing is wasted and where natural
resources are managed sustainably, and biodiversity is protected,
valued and restored in ways that enhance our society's resilience.
Our low-carbon growth has long been decoupled from resource use,
setting the pace for a global safe and sustainable society.
’
Source: 7th EU Environment Action Programme
 EUU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (1. samling) - Bilag 468: Miljøagenturets præsentation af miljørapport Europas miljø - tilstand og fremtidsudsigter 2015
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Synthesis
report
Part 1: Setting the
scene
Sets out the evolving
context for European
environmental policy, and
the global megatrends that
directly and indirectly affect
Europe’s environment.
Part 2: Assessing
European trends
Provides summary
assessments of the trends
and outlook for 20
environmental issues,
grouped under the three
priority thematic objectives of
the 7th Environment Action
Programme.
Part 3: Looking
ahead
Reflects on the overall
picture of the European
environment’s state and
outlook. Signals
opportunities to adjust
environmental policy to
support the transition to a
more sustainable society.
 EUU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (1. samling) - Bilag 468: Miljøagenturets præsentation af miljørapport Europas miljø - tilstand og fremtidsudsigter 2015
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Key messages from SOER 2015
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
•
Policies
have delivered substantial benefits for the environment,
economy and people’s well-being;
major challenges remain
•
Europe faces persistent and emerging challenges linked to production
and consumption
systems,
and the rapidly changing
global
context
•
Achieving the 2050 vision requires system
transitions,
driven by more
ambitious actions on policy, knowledge, investments and innovation
© Daniel Danko, Environment & Me /EEA
•
Doing so presents major
opportunities
to boost
Europe’s economy and
employment and put Europe at the frontier of science and innovation
 EUU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (1. samling) - Bilag 468: Miljøagenturets præsentation af miljørapport Europas miljø - tilstand og fremtidsudsigter 2015
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Eco-industries have prospered despite the
recession in Europe
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
170
160
Eco-industry
value added
Eco-industry
employment
150
140
130
120
Total EU
GDP
Total EU
employment
110
© Daniel Danko, Environment & Me /EEA
100
90
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: Eurostat, 2014.
 EUU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (1. samling) - Bilag 468: Miljøagenturets præsentation af miljørapport Europas miljø - tilstand og fremtidsudsigter 2015
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Assessing past trends and future outlooks
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
The Synthesis report addresses the three thematic priority objectives of
the 7
th
EAP:
1.
2.
3.
Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital
Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy
Safeguarding from environmental risks to health
Two overall patterns emerge:
•
© Ana Skobe, Environment & Me /EEA
Resource efficiency improvements have been notable but have not
translated into increased ecosystem and social resilience
The long-term outlook is often less positive than recent trends
•
 EUU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (1. samling) - Bilag 468: Miljøagenturets præsentation af miljørapport Europas miljø - tilstand og fremtidsudsigter 2015
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Thematic priority objective 1:
Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Past (5–10
year) trends
20+ years outlook
Progress to
policy targets
Terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity
Land use and soil functions
Ecological status of freshwater bodies
Water quality and nutrient loading
Air pollution and its ecosystem impacts
Marine and coastal biodiversity
Climate change impacts on ecosystems
Improving trends dominate
Trends show mixed picture
Deteriorating trends dominate
No target
�½
�½
No target
Largely on track
Partially on track
Largely not on track
�½
Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.
 EUU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (1. samling) - Bilag 468: Miljøagenturets præsentation af miljørapport Europas miljø - tilstand og fremtidsudsigter 2015
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Thematic priority objective 2:
Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Past (5–10
year) trends
20+ years outlook
Progress to
policy targets
No target
Material resource efficiency and material use
Waste management
Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change mitigation
Energy consumption and fossil fuel use
Transport demand and related environmental impacts
Industrial pollution to air, soil and water
Water use and water quantity stress
Improving trends dominate
Trends show mixed picture
Deteriorating trends dominate
/
�½
�½
Largely on track
Partially on track
Largely not on track
�½
Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.
 EUU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (1. samling) - Bilag 468: Miljøagenturets præsentation af miljørapport Europas miljø - tilstand og fremtidsudsigter 2015
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Thematic priority objective 3:
Safeguarding from environmental risks to health
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Past (5–10
year) trends
20+ years outlook
Progress to
policy targets
Water pollution and related environmental health risks
/
Air pollution and related environmental health risks
Noise pollution (especially in urban areas)
Urban systems and grey infrastructure
Climate change and related environmental health risks
Chemicals and related environmental health risks
/
No target
No target
/
�½
Improving trends dominate
Trends show mixed picture
Deteriorating trends dominate
Largely on track
Partially on track
Largely not on track
�½
Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.
 EUU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (1. samling) - Bilag 468: Miljøagenturets præsentation af miljørapport Europas miljø - tilstand og fremtidsudsigter 2015
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The overall picture:
Efficiency improvements have not secured long-term resilience
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Protecting, conserving
and enhancing natural
capital
Resource efficiency
and the low-carbon
economy
Safeguarding from
environmental risks to
health
Past
(5–10)
year
trends
20+
years
outlook
/
Improving trends dominate
Trends show mixed picture
Deteriorating trends dominate
Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.
 EUU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (1. samling) - Bilag 468: Miljøagenturets præsentation af miljørapport Europas miljø - tilstand og fremtidsudsigter 2015
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Understanding past trends and future outlooks
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Two major factors explain the uneven progress and prospects:
The changing global context
•
•
•
Competition for resources
Pressures from outside Europe
Planetary boundaries
Systemic characteristics of environmental challenges
•
© Ana Skobe, Environment & Me /EEA
Complexity
Uncertainty
Environmental, social and economic interdependencies
•
•
 EUU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (1. samling) - Bilag 468: Miljøagenturets præsentation af miljørapport Europas miljø - tilstand og fremtidsudsigter 2015
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Understanding past trends and future outlooks:
Natural capital
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
•
•
•
Long time-lags between reduced pressures and positive changes
Pressures on ecosystems remain considerable
External trends can counteract the positive effects of local efforts
© Alex Dumitrescu, Environment & Me /EEA
Source: EEA, SOER 2015 Synthesis.
 EUU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (1. samling) - Bilag 468: Miljøagenturets præsentation af miljørapport Europas miljø - tilstand og fremtidsudsigter 2015
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Understanding past trends and future outlooks:
Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
•
•
•
Production-consumption systems support livelihoods, creating lock-ins
Globalisation of production and consumption constrains EU influence
More efficient production lowers costs, incentivising more consumption
© Keith Arkins, Environment & Me /EEA
Source: EEA, SOER 2015 Synthesis.
 EUU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (1. samling) - Bilag 468: Miljøagenturets præsentation af miljørapport Europas miljø - tilstand og fremtidsudsigter 2015
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Understanding past trends and future outlooks:
Safeguarding from environmental risks to health
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
•
•
•
Impacts resulting from climate change are expected to worsen
Changing exposures, urbanisation and ageing increase vulnerability
Good urban design delivers benefits to health and well-being
© Alexander Goranov, Environment & Me /EEA
Sources: Eurostat, Gisco - Urban Audit 2012; EEA, AirBase and Indicator CSI004.
 EUU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (1. samling) - Bilag 468: Miljøagenturets præsentation af miljørapport Europas miljø - tilstand og fremtidsudsigter 2015
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Looking ahead:
Systemic challenges require systemic solutions
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Not just incremental efficiency gains
Source: EEA.
but fundamental transitions in food, energy, mobility, finance and fiscal systems
through profound changes in dominant practices, policies and thinking.
 EUU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (1. samling) - Bilag 468: Miljøagenturets præsentation af miljørapport Europas miljø - tilstand og fremtidsudsigter 2015
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Looking ahead:
Building on 40 years of European and national policies
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
Reducing
environmental
pressures or offsetting
harmful effects
Precautionary principle:
avoid potential harm (or
counter-productive
actions) in highly
complex and uncertain
situations
Remediating
environmental
degradation (where
possible) or other
costs imposed on
society
Some environmental
change inevitable:
anticipate adverse effects
of specific environmental
changes
Source: EEA.
 EUU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (1. samling) - Bilag 468: Miljøagenturets præsentation af miljørapport Europas miljø - tilstand og fremtidsudsigter 2015
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Looking ahead:
Innovation
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
•
Economic, technological and social innovations can support
long-term transitions to a green economy
•
This requires upscaling niche innovations such as collaborative
consumption and prosumerism
•
Publicly funded research has fostered many of the most
important and commercially successful innovations
© Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA
 EUU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (1. samling) - Bilag 468: Miljøagenturets præsentation af miljørapport Europas miljø - tilstand og fremtidsudsigter 2015
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Looking ahead:
Investing today for the long term
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
• European investment needs are huge and today’s choices will
have long-term implications
•
Key criteria for future investments in a green economy:
- decarbonisation of society
- circular economy jobs
- ecosystem services and planetary limits
© Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA
- human health and well-being
•
Market signals distort investment and innovation. We need to
shift taxation and phase out environmentally harmful subsidies
 EUU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (1. samling) - Bilag 468: Miljøagenturets præsentation af miljørapport Europas miljø - tilstand og fremtidsudsigter 2015
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Looking ahead:
Living well within the limits of the planet by 2050
SYNTHESIS
REPORT
GLOBAL
MEGATRENDS
EUROPEAN
BRIEFINGS
COUNTRY
COMPARISONS
COUNTRIES &
REGIONS
•
Achieving the 2050 vision is
possible but it depends on our
actions and investments today.
•
Systemic change must deliver
decent employment, opportunities
and fairness, as well as respecting
environmental limits.
•
SOER 2015 illustrates the success
of European policy. We should be
confident in entering a new stage
of environmental governance.
Source: Raworth, 2012
© Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA
 EUU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (1. samling) - Bilag 468: Miljøagenturets præsentation af miljørapport Europas miljø - tilstand og fremtidsudsigter 2015
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Explore SOER 2015 online:
eea.europa.eu/soer
 EUU, Alm.del - 2014-15 (1. samling) - Bilag 468: Miljøagenturets præsentation af miljørapport Europas miljø - tilstand og fremtidsudsigter 2015
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