Transportudvalget 2012-13
TRU Alm.del Bilag 267
Offentligt
Landstrafikmodellen …"" "" " "" " "" "" " "" "" """"""" "" """ ""
Transportudvalget, 28. maj 2013
"
""""""""""""""""
"
""""""" """""""""""""""" """ """" """""""" """"""""""""" """""" """"" "" " """"""""" """ """"""" "" """" """""""" """""""""""" " """""" """"" """ """"" """" """" """" "" """" "" """"" """""""""""""" """""" " """"""""" """""""" "" """""""""""""" "" """"""""""" """"" " """"" """"""""""""""""" """"""" """ """"""""""""""" " """""""""" """""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""" """" "" """""""""""""" """"" """"" """"""""" " """ """"""" """"" "" " "" """"""""""""" " "" """"" " """"" " """" " """"" """" " """""" """"""""" """""""""""""""""" """"""" """""""" " " """""" "" """""""""""" "" " " """""""""" """""""""""" "" """" """" """" " " " "" "" """""""""""" """" """ """""""""""" " """""""""" """""""""""""" """"""""""""" "" " """"""""" """" """"" " """"""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""" """"" """""" """"""""""""" " """"" " """"" """""""""""" "" """"""" """""""" """""""" """" "" " " """ """""""""" """"""" """""""""""""" " """" """ """"""""" """" """ """"" " """" "" """ "" """""""""" """""""""""""""" """""""" " """"""""""" "" " """""""" """"""""" "" """" """" "" " """ """ " " """" "" "" """ "" " "" " " """ """""" " " "" " """"""" " "" " " """ """" """"" """""" " """""" " """"" """ " """ """ """ "" """""""" """ "" " " """ " """""""" "" " "" """ " "" """""" " " """"" """""""" """""" """"""""""" """" " " "" """" """ """" """""""""""""""" " """"" """"""""""""""""""""""""""" "" """"""""""""""""""""" """ """"""""""""""""""" """""""" "" """ " "" " " "" "" "" " """"""""" """"" "" """"" " " """""" """""""""" "" " """" """" """"""""""" " " " """"""" " """"""""" " """""" """ """""""" """ """" """ """" """""" """ """"""""""""" " """""" """"""""""""""""""""" " "" """"""""" " """""""""""""""""""""""""" """""" """"""""" """""" """"""""""""""""" """ " """"""""""""""""""" " """ "" " """""""" """""""" """"""""""""""" "" """ """"" """"" """ """ """""""""""""""""" " """"" " """"""" """""" """""""" """""""" """ """" """""""""""" "" """ "" " """""""" """ """"""" """""""" "" """""" """"""" " """ """ """ "" """""""""""" """"""" " "" """""""""""""""" """"" "" """""" """"" """" """""""""""" "" """""" " """""""" " "" """"""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""" """""" " """""""""" """"" """ """""" """"""""""""""""""""""" """" """ """" """""" """"""""""" " "" """"""""" """""""" """"""" "" """" """"""""""""" """""" " "" """"""""" """""""""""""" """"" """""" """""""""""""" """""""" " """""""""" " """ "" """"" """ """""" "" """" """""" " """"""""" "" """"""""""""""" """" "" "" """""" """ """"""" " """" """""" "" "" " """ " " """""" """ """ " """"" """"" """""""""" " """"" """"""" """ " " "" """" "" """""" """"""" """""""""""""""""" "" """ """""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""" " """" """"" """" """"""""" """"" """""" " """"""""""""" """ """""""""" " """"" "" """""""""" """"""""""" """" """" """""""" """""" " """""""""""" """""" " "" "" """ """"""""""""" "" """""""" """""" "" " """" """""" " "" "" """"" "" " """""" """"" "" """""""" " """""""""""" """"" """""""" "" """"" """" """"" "" """"""" """" """" " """""""""" """"""" """ """ " "" """""" """""""" " "" "" """"""""""" """""""""""""""""" "" """"" " " " """""" "" " """""" """"" """ " """""""" "" """""" """" """""""""""""""""""""" " """ """""""""" """ """"""""" " """"""""""" """" """ """" " "" """"" " """""""""""" " """""" """"""""""""""""" " """" "" """""""""""" "" """"" """"""" """"" """""""""""" """ """"""""""" "" """""""""""""""""""" """""" "" """"" """"""""""""""""""" """ " """"""""""""" """"""" "" "" """"""""" " " """" """" """"""""""""""""""" " """ " " """ " """"" """""" """ " """" " """"" " "" """ " "" " """""" """""""""""""""""""""""" """""""" "" "" """"""" """"""""" "" " "" """ """"" """""" " " "" """""""""" """ """"""" """"""""" " "" """"""" "" """" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """ """"""""""" " " """""""" """ """"""""" "" """""""" """ """" """"""" "" """ """ """"""" """""" """""" """ """""" """ """"" """""""" """ """""""""" """ " """""""""""""" """ " """" """"""""" """""""" """"""""""" " """"" """ """" """" """""""" """""""""""""""""""""" "" """"""""""""""" """""" " "" """"""" """" """" """"" """"""" """" "" """" """ """ """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" " """ " """""""" " """"""""" """"""""" """"" """"" "" " """"""" """"""""""" """ "" " """"" " """""" """""""""""" """" "" """""" """" """ """""" """""""" "" """"""""""""" """""" """"""""""""""""" """"" """""" """"""" " """" " """"""" " """ " " """"""" " """"" "" """"""" """""""" """"""" """"" """""""""""""""""" """"" "" " "" """""""""" "" """" """""" """"" """""""" "" "" " " """"""""""" " """ """""" " """ """ """""" "" """""" """ "" """ "" "" " "" " """""""" """"""""""""" """" "" " """" "" """" """""" """" " "" """ """"""" "" "" """""""" " """ """""""" """"""" """""""""" "" """ " """ " """" """" "" " """"""""""""""""""""""" """ " """""""""" """""""""""""" """""" """" """" """"" " "" " " "" """""" " " """"" """" """" """"""" "" """"""""" """""" """"" """"""""""" "" """""""" "" "" """ """""""""""""""""""""" " """"""""" """""""" """""" "" """ """" " """" """"""" """"""" """""""" "" """"""""""" " "" " "" " """ """"""" " """ """" "" """"" " """"" " " "" "" """" "" """"" " """""""""" """"""" """""""""""""""""""" " " "" """"" "" " """" " """ "" """"""""""" "" "" "" """""" """"""" """""""" " "" """"" """ "" """"" " "" "" "" """""""" """"""""""""""""""""" """" """"""" """ """" """" """" """""" " """"" """"""" " " " """"""""""" " """""" """" """""" """" " """ """" """" """""""""""""""""""" " """"""""""" " " " "" """" " """" " """ """"" """"""" """""""""""""""""" "" """ "" """ " """ """"""" """" """" """ " " "" "" "" " """""""" """ "" " " """""""""""""" """""""""" " """"""""" " "" """"" """ """""" " """"" """"" "" " "" """"""""""" " "" " """ """" "" " """"" " " """"""""" " " "" """"" "" "" "" """" """" "" """" "" """"" """"" "" """"" " """"""" """"""" """"""" """"""" """ " " """""""""" " """""""""""""""" " """"" " "" """ " " """" """""" """""""""""" "" "" "" " "" " """"""" " " """ "" " "" "" """""" """" """""""""""" """""""""""" """"" """""""" """ """""""" """"""" """""""""""" """""""""""""" """"" """""""""""" """"""""""""""" """ """" " "" " " """""""" """"" "" " "" """"""""""""""" """ """" " """"" " """""""""""""" """ """ """""""""""""""""" """"" """"""""" " """""""""""" "" """"" " """ "" """ "" " " """""""""" """ """ " " """"""" """""""""""""" """ """""""""""""""" """""""" """"""""" """""""""""" " """ """" """""" " """" """"""" " """ """"""""""" " " " " "" """""""" """""""""""""""""""""" """"" """ """"""""""" " """"""" " """""""""""""""" "" "" """"" """ """" """" """ """ " " "" """"""" " "" """""""" """ " """""""""""" " "" """ """"""""" " """""""""" """ """ """"""""""""""" """"""""""""""" "" """"" " """""" """ "" """""""""""""""" """"""" """"""""""""""""""" " "" """"""" "" " " """" """"" """""" "" """""""""" """"" "" """"" " """" """" """""" """""" """ """" "" " """ """""" """"""""""""""""""""" "" "" """""""""" "" """""""""""""" """""" """""" """""""" """""""""" """" " "" "" " """""""""""""""""""" """"" """"" """""""" """""""" """" """""""""""""" """"""""" """"""""""""""""""""" """""" """"""" """"""""" """ """""""" """"" """" """""" """"""""""" """" """""""" """"""""""""" " " "" """"""" """"""""""""""""""" "" " " "" " "" "" "" "" "" "" "" " """""""""" """""""""" " "" """""""""""" "" """"" """" " """"""""" """""" "" """"" """"" """""""" " """ " """""""""""""""""" """" """""" """""""""" """"" " "" """"""" "" " """""""""""""""""""" " " """""""""""""" """"""""""" """"""" " """"""""""""" "" """""" """""""""""""" """""""""""""" """""""" "" "" """ """ " " "" " """"""""" """" " """"""" "" """" """""""" "" " "" """ " """""""" """"" """""" """"" """" """" " """"""" """"""" """""""""""""" """""""""" """ " "" """" """""""""""""""" """" """" """""" """ "" """" "" """ """"" " "" " """"""" " """""" """"""" " """" " """ """"" """ "" " """ """"" """"" "" " " " """ """ """""" "" " " """" """"""""" """" """ """""""""" "" """"""" """"""""""" """ """ """" " """"" "" " """ """ "" "" """" """""""" "" """ """""" " " """" """"""" " " """""""" """ " """""""""""""" """"""""""""" " " """"" """"" " """""" """ " " """""""""" """ " """ """"" " """""""""" """ "" "" " " "" """""""" """""" "" "" " "" """ "" """" " """ """"""""""""""" """""""" """"" """""""""""""" """"""""" """ """" "" " """"" """ "" """"""""""""" """ """"""" """"""" """ " """""" """" " """"""""" """"" " """""" """"""""""""""" " """ """""""" """" """""" """ """ " """""" """ """"" " " """" "" """" "" " " "" """""" " " "" """" "" " "" """" """ """" " """"" """"" """" """" """ "" """ """""" " """ """" """"""""""" "" """"" " "" " """"""""" """""" "" """"""""""" "" "" "" """"""""""" """ " """" " " " " " """"" " """""""" " " """ """ """"""""" """ """ " """"" " """"""" "" " """""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """ " """"""""" " "" " """" """""" " " "" """" """""""""" """""""""""""""""" "" "" """""" """ "" " " "" """""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""" "" " "" """ """"""""""""""""""""" "" """"""" " " """" " "" " "" """" """ """"""""" """""" """"""""""""" """""" """" """" "" " """ "" """""""""" " " " """"""""""""""""""""""" " " " " " "" """"" " "" """""""""" """ " """"""" "" " """"" " """" " """ """ """""""""""" "" """ " """ """" """" """ " " """"""""" """ """""""""""" """ " " "" """" """""""""""""""" """"""""" """"" " "" " " """""""""" " " " " " """ " " """ """""""" """" """""" " """"""" "" """""""""""""""""" """" """"""""" """""""" """" " """" """""""" "" "" "" " """"" """ """ "" " "" """" " """"""""""""""" """"" """ " """""" "" " """"" "" """ " """"""" """"" """""" """ """"" """ "" """""""""""" """ "" """ """""" " """"" """"""""""""""""" """ " "" "" "" " """"" """"""""" """"""" """" " " " " "" """""""" """""""""""""""""""""""" """ """" """"" """"""" " " " "" "" """""""""""""" " "" """""" """""""" " "" """" """""""" " """""""""""""" """" """"""" """ "" """""" " """"" " " """"" " """"""""" """" """"" """ " "" """" "" """"""""""" """""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """ "" """ " """"""" """ "" "" """"""""""""" """ " """ " "" " """ " " "" "" """ """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" " "" "" " " """ "" """"""" " """" """"""" """""""""""" """""""""" """" """""""""""""""""""""" """""""" """"""""""""" """ "" """" """"""" """ """ """"""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""" """" " " "" """ """""""""""""" "" " "" " " """ "" """""""" """ """ " """""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""" " " "" """"" """" " """""" """"""""""" """"""" " """""" """" """"""" " """ """" """"" " " """ "" "" "" """"" """""""" " """ " " " """"" " " """"" """"""" """"" """""" """""" """""""" """"" """""""" " " " " """""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""" """" """"" """ " """"""" """"" " " """"""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""" """""" """""""""""""""""""""" " """"""""""""" """""""""" """ " """"" """""" " " " "" "" " """""""""" " """"" " " """" "" """"" """" """"" """ """"" " " """"""""""" " " " "" " " " """""" "" " " """"""" """""""""""""""" " " " "" """ "" """""""" " " " """" " " """"" " """"""" """" " "" """"""""" """ """""""""""" " """"""" """"" "" " """""" """ """" """ " """"""""" """""""" " " " " " "" " """"""" " " "" """""" """""""""""""""""" " """""" """""""""" " """"" """ " "" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" "" """"""""""""""" """"""" """" " """" """" """" " """"" " """"" """" """ """ """ " " "" " "" """" """ "" " """ " """"" """" " " """"" """" """"" """"" """" """"""""""""" """""" """ """ """""""""""""" """""" """"""" " " " " """" " " " " """ " " """""""""""" "" " " """""""" """""" """"" """"""""""" """ "" " """"""""" """"" """"" " " """" """ "" """" " """" " """""""""""""""""""""" "" " """" """" """" "" """""""""""" """"""" "" """"""" "" """"""" """ """ " """ """"" """""" """" """""" " " "" """ """""" """"""""""""""""""""""""" " """""" " " "" " "" """""""""""""""""""" """""" """""""""" """" """ """"" " """ """ " "" """" " " """"" """"""""""" """"""""""" "" """ """ """"""""""""" "" """" " " " """" """"" "" """" " " " " """"" """""" "" " """ """"" " """" " """ " "" " """ """" """" " """"" """""""" """ """ """ "" """""""" " """""""""""""""" """"""" " """" """""" " """ " " """"" """ " " " """"""""""""""""""""""" "" """ """"""" """" "" " """ """"""""" """""""""""" """"""" """"" " """""""""""" " """"" """"""" """"""""" "" """" """""""" """ " " """ " """""""""""" " """""""" " " " " """ """""""""" """"" " """ """ """ """""""""" """"" """"""""" """"" """"""""""" "" " """"" " " """""""" """ " """""" " " """""""""" "" """"""""""""""" """""""""" " " "" """""""" " "" "" """"""" """"""""""" """""" """""""" " """"""""""" """"""""""" """ """"" """""" """ """""" """ "" """"""""""""" " """" " " """" " """ """"""""""" """""" "" """""" """ """" "" "" " """ """" " """ " " """"""" """""" "" """""""""""" """""""""""" """" "" """""""""" """"" " """"" """""""""""""" """""""""" """""""""""""""" " """" """"""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""" " """""""""""""""" """""""""""""" """"" " " """"" """" """ """"""""""" "" """""""" """" """""" " " " " """ """"""""""""""" """ """ "" "" """"""""" """"""""""""" """" """ """"" """ """""""" """" """""""""""""" " """""""""" """ """ """"""""""" """"""" """"" """"""" """"""""""" """ """"""""" """""" """"" """""""""""" """" """" "" " " """""""""""""""""""""" """""" """" """""""""""""" """"" """" " "" """" " """" """" """"""""""""""""""""""" " """ " " " """""" " """""""""""""""""""" """"""" " """""""" """" """""""""" """"""""""""""""" """""""""""""""" """""" """""""""""""" " """""""" "" """"" """ "" "" """""" """"""""""" """" " " """""""""" """"" " """""" """""""""" """""" " " " " "" " "" "" " "" "" " " "" """""" """ """""""" """ """"" """"""""" """ """"""""""""""""""""" " """""""""""""""" """ " """ " " """"""""""""" """"""""" """"" "" "" """"" "" " " " " " """ """ "" """" """""""" """" " """" " """" "" " " """"""" """ """""" """"""""" " "" """ """"" " """ "" "" "" """"" """"""""" " """"""""" """ """""""" "" """""""" """""""""""""" " """"" """"""""" """ """""" " " """""""""" """"""""""""""" """""" " " """""" "" " "" """""""""""" """""" """"""" """"" """ "" "" """" "" """""""" " " "" """ """"""" "" """"""" """ """ """ " """ """ " """ "" "" " """"""" """" " """""""""" """""""" " """""""""" " """ """"""""""" " "" """ "" """" " " "" "" """"""" " """""""" "" """"" """""" """ " " "" """"""" " """ "" """"" "" """ "" " " "" """"" " "" """" " """" """"" "" """ "" """" " """"" "" """"""" " """""""" "" """ " """"" """"""""" "" " "" """""" """"""""""" """"" " """"""" """""""" """" """"""""""""""""""" "" """""""" " "" """"""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"" "" """""" "" "" """ """""" " " "" " """""""""" " " " """"" "" """" " """" "" """"" " "" """"""""" """""""""""""""""" " """ """ " """""""" "" """"""""" """ " "" """ """" """"" " """ "" """" "" """"""" "" """"" """"""""" " """""" """ """" """ " """" """""""""""""""""""" """""""" """"""" """ """"" """"" """" " """""" " " """"""" """""" """"""""" """"""" """"""""" """"" " """""" " "" """"""" """"""""" """ """ """ """ " "" "" " """""""""""" " """"""" """" """" """""" """ """" """ """" """ """ """""" """" "" " """"" """""""" "" """""" """" " """ """"""" """"""" " " """""""""""""" """" """""""" " """ " "" "" """""""""""" """"""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""" """"" """ """" " """" " " "" " " " "" """""" " """ """"" """" """""" """ """ " " """""""""""""" """""""" """""" """""" "" " """"" "" """"""""""" """" "" """ """""""" "" """"""""" """ """" """"""" " " """""""""""""" """"" """""""""" """" " """"""" """ """ " """"" " """""""""""""""" """""""" "" "" "" """" " " "" """ """ " """" """"" """"""""""""""""""" "" "" " """" "" "" """""""" """"" """"""""" """" """""""" """" "" "" """"""""" """" """""" """""""""""" """""" " """""""""""" """ """""" """"" "" """" """" """" """" """"" " """ """"""""""""" """" " """" """ " "" """ """"""""""" """" "" "" " """""""""""""""" " " " """"""""" """"""""" """"" " """"" """""" """"" """""" "" """" " "" "" " """" " """"""""" """""" """""""" " """"""""""""""" """"""" " " """"""""""" " """""" " """" """"""""""""""" """ """ " " """""""""""" """""" " "" """" """ """" """"" """ """ " """" """"""""" " """""" """""""""""""" """""""" """"""" """""" """"" "" " "" " """" """""""""" """"""" " """""" "" """" "" """""""""""" """""""""" "" "" """" """"""""" " """""""" """" """""" """" " """ "" """""""""""""""""""""""" "" """ """" "" " " " " "" "" """"""""""""""""""" " """""""" """"""""""""""""" """""" """" """"""""""""" """" """ """"""" " "" """" """""""" " """ """""" " """ """""" """"""""""""""""" """""""""""" """""" """""" "" """"" """" """""""""" "" "" " """ """"""" """"" " """" " """""""""" """"""""""""" """""""" """""""" """"""""""""" " " """ "" """" " """"""""""""""" " """""" "" """"" """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """ "" " "" " "" " " "" """"" " "" " " """"""""""""""" """" """"""""""""" " """""" " "" """"" "" " " """ """""" " """ "" " """"" """"""""" """""" " " " """""""""" """" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """ """"""""" """"" """""" """""""""" " """""" """"""" "" "" " """" "" """""" """"""""""" """" " """" """ " """"" """" """"""""""""" "" " """"""""""""" " """" """"""""""""""" """ """" """""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""" """" " """"""" """" """ " """""""""""""""""""" """ "" """"""""""" """" "" " """"""""" """" """"" " """"" """"""""""" """ " """ """""" "" "" """""" """"" """""""""""" """ " """" """" """""""""" " " " " """""" """""""""""" """" "" " """ """""""""""" """ " """""""" " " """ """""""""""""""" """" """" """ "" """"" """"" """" "" "" " """ "" """""" " """""""""""""""""" """"" """""""""""" " """ "" """"""" """ """ " """" """" " """"" "" "" """"""""" """" """""""" """ "" "" " " """ " """" """"" " """""""" """""" "" """" " """" " " "" " """" """"" """ """"" """" """"""" " """"" "" """ """""" """ " """ """"" "" " """" "" " "" """"""""" """"""""""" " """""" """" " """"""" """""""""" " " """ " "" """"""""""""" " """ " "" """"""""" """" """"""""" " "" "" """""""" " " """ "" """"""""""""""""""""""" """"""""" " " """"""" """"""""""" """" """""""""""" "" """ """""""""""" " " """ """"""" """"""""" "" " """ " "" " "" """" """" """""" " """"" """ """" """" """"""""""""""""""""""""""" " """" """""" "" """""""""" " """" """""""" "" """"""""""""""" """""""""""""""""" """" """"" """ """"""" " """"""" """" " "" """" "" "" "" "" """ """"""""" " """" """""" " """""" " " """"""""" " """""" """"""""""" " " "" "" "" """"" " " "" """ """ " "" "" " """"" """"""" "" """""" " """"""""" " " """ " """"""""""" """ """""""""" """" " """""" "" """""""""" """"" """" """""""""""""""" """"""""" """""" """" """" "" """"""" """"" """"" """"" """ """"" " """ """""""" " """"" " " """" """ "" """ "" " "" " "" "" "" "" " """ "" """"""""" "" """"""""""""""""""""" """"""" """" """" """""" """"""" "" " " "" """"""""" """""""""" """"""" """" """"" "" "" " " """""" """ """"""" """"""""""""" """" """"" """"""" """ """""""""""" " "" """"""" """""" " "" "" "" " "" """ " """ " "" """" """ """"""" """ """"""""""" " "" " """ """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""" """"""""""" """"""" """"" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""
" """"""""""" """""""""" " ""
""""""" ""
"""
""" ""
"""""""" """ "" "" " " """"""""""""""""" """"" """"""""""""""""""""""""""" """" """"""" """ """"""" """"""""" """" """"""""" """"""""""""""" """" """" """""""""""""""
""
Hvorfor en Landstrafikmodel?•Forbedret beslutningsgrundlag•Samme beslutningsgrundlag– Sammenligning af projekter– Fokus på projekterne•Understøtter beslutningsprocessen•Optimering af projekter•Løbende beredskab– Hurtigere og billigere trafikanalyser
2
DTU Transport
Ønsker/krav til LandstrafikmodellenTransportsystemet som helhed (TRM, andre ministerier)•Effektberegning af infrastrukturprojekter•Kvaliteten og tilgængeligheden i transportsystemet•Arealplanlægning
Vejtransport (VD og kommuner)•Trafikale effekter af vejinfrastrukturinvesteringer, store som små•Udformning af infrastrukturen, ITS•Mere præcis formulering af trængsel, rejsetider og rutevalg•Redskab til mere systematisk planlægning af vedligeholdKollektiv transport (TS, BDK, regioner, kommuner og operatører)•Trafikale effekter af baneinfrastrukturprojekter•Udformning af infrastrukturen, forskellige transportmidler•Udformning af trafikudbud, køreplaner
3
DTU Transport
Hvordan regner Landstrafikmodellen?En grundigbeskrivelse afudgangspunktet
Basis 2010Fremskrivningbaseret påudbud ogefterspørgsel
Basis 2030
Scenario 2030
Projektforudsætninger-> Projektvurdering4DTU Transport
Basis 2010TransportmidlerBilfører, bilpassager, kollektivpassager (6 segmenter), cykel,gang og flyVarebiler5 typer lastbiler, 2 typer banetrafikog 3 typer skibstrafik
Tidsbånd05-06, 06-07, 07-08, 08-0909-1515-16, 16-17, 17-1818-21, 21-05
Turformål for personerHverdag: Pendling, uddannelse,erhverv, indkøb og fritidInternational: Pendling, erhverv,indkøb og andetOvernatning: Pendling/erhverv ogandet5DTU Transport
Varegrupper for gods21 varegrupper, NST2007:Landbrug, kul, metal og malm,fødevarer, osv.
Datakilder for persontransport•Transportvaneundersøgelsen er klart den vigtigste datakilde– Dobbelt stikprøve medio 2009 – medio 2011– Model baseret på godt 87.000 interviews (260.000 enkeltture)– Beskriver danskernes rejsemønstre for én dag• Ture, formål, transportmiddel, tidspunkt, bilejerskab, tid,omkostninger, billettype, …•Tællinger (VD, kommuner, DSB, Arriva, Trafikselskaber)•Registeroplysninger•Specifikke dataindsamlinger: Femern, Øresund•Dannet rejsemønstre– Til/fra, formål, tidspunkt– Personbil (fører og passager), kollektiv, fly, cykel og gang
6
DTU Transport
Datakilder for godstransport•Der findes ikke en TU for gods•Indsamlet– Stopinterview med chauffører– Virksomhedsoplysninger• Register og interviews– Handelsstatistikker– Transportstatistikker– Tællinger– Synsdata– International transport• Analyser fra Sverige ogNorge• Postkort ved grænser
•Dannet rejsemønstre– Fra/til, tidspunkt, varegruppe– Lastbiler (5 typer) og varebiler
7
DTU Transport
Efterspørgsel i LandstrafikmodellenEfterspørgselBilejerskab, rejsehyppighed, destination, transportmiddel og tidspunkt
2030: Befolkningstæthedpopdens_2030_2010-23.666193 - -4.891505-4.891504 - 4.0389004.038901 - 14.64242114.642422 - 29.01380429.013805 - 66.446513
Reaktioner i modellen i dagTid og omkostningerBNP og indkomstBefolkning, beskæftigelse, alderosv.Lokalisering af bopæl ogarbejdspladser
ForbedringerBilejerskabTidspunktRegularitetBetydning af lokalisering
8
DTU Transport
Virkemidler for efterspørgsel
BilejerskabAfgifter
FrekvensTid og omkostninger
DestinationLokalisering af arbejdspladser
TransportmiddelRejsetid og forsinkelserKollektive takster
P-afgifterStrækningsafgifter
9
DTU Transport
Vejtransport i LandstrafikmodellenRutevalg for vejValg af rute baseret på rejsetid og –omkostninger, rejsetider afhænger af trængsel
Reaktioner i modellen i dagKøretid og forsinkelseTurlængderAfgifterTrængsel på lange ture (tidsbånd)
ForbedringerInddragelse af kryds og signaltiderReaktioner på afgifterUforudsigelighed af rejsetider
10
DTU Transport
Virkemidler for vejtrafik
Reducere køretidNye strækninger
Reducere forsinkelserUdbedring af flaskehalseITSBedre udformning af kryds/signaler
AfgifterPunktafgifterStrækningsafgifter
11
DTU Transport
Kollektiv trafik i LandstrafikmodellenRutevalg for kollektivValg af rute baseret på rejse- og skiftetider, køreplandata fra RejseplanenBusBus, inaktiv i L2BuslinjeS-tog
Reaktioner i modellen i dagRejsetider per transportmiddel
MetroLokalbanetogFjern- og regionaltogBane
Vente- og skiftetid, antal skift,tilbringertidPris er ikke med i rutevalg
ForbedringerMere fleksible modelprincipperbaseret på køreplan
Rejsekortet og rejsemønstreTilbringer til kollektiv trafik (TU)12DTU Transport
Virkemidler for kollektiv trafik
Reducere køretidNye baneforbindelserPrioritering af busNye buslinier
Reducere vente- ogskiftetiderBedre koordinering af køreplanerStyrke knudepunkter
Stationsudformning, gangmønstre
Reducere tilbringertidStationsudformning, parkering
13
DTU Transport
AnvendelseInfrastrukturprojekter•Konkrete projekt i Strategiske Analyser, bl.a.– Timemodel– Randers Fjord– E45– KattegatCategoryID
Description
TotalVehicleTrips
TotalVehicleKilometers
TotalVehicleMinutes
TotalVehicleMinutesFree
TotalVehicleMinutesCong
1 Commute1318224,70446840980,6246475401,0139027243,817448157,1972 Business168705,37510394777,218893129,46876135741279555,4693 Shopping664199,101317737262,7318211834,1715509695,222702138,9524 Other1170851,58840123743,4238724343,0133153015,595571327,4176 Trucks289334,05346680356,7176648222,3035960677,51687544,79327 TrucksWithHanger110435,86115735507,655071620,5714731938,205339682,365711 Commutelong8274,201321717085,711258809,7361042633,126216176,610712 Businesslong10861,571943539773,7362475025,52071892,288403133,212213 Shoppinglong3886,0828191225315,036879500,9413744052,9954135447,945914 Otherlong17809,725115248410,3893761276,9493163024,67598252,278116 TrucksLong1933,57639337164,5017276152,4522265338,044510814,4077517 TrucksWithHangerLong5126,2890911107306,084883121,6665858941,145824180,520671000 Total3769642,129140687683,8133558437,8114142026,619416411,17
14
DTU Transport
AnvendelseTilgængelighed -> TrængselskommissionenVej, off-peakVej, peak
Kollektiv, off-peak
Kollektiv, peak
15
DTU Transport
Fortsat udviklingValideringLTM 1.0nationaltLTM 1.xnationaltLTM 1.xregionalt
LTM 2.0nationalt
LTM 2.0regionalt
16
DTU Transport
Spørgsmål?
17
DTU Transport
