Det Udenrigspolitiske Nævn 2008-09
Bilag 20
Offentligt
Security Event
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KEY FINDINGS:- The overall pirate hijacking success rate for 2009 (vessel hijackings / total attacks) is currently at 23%. This is significantly lower thanthe average in 2008 of 40% and is likely due to the increased naval patrols and heightened security practices of the merchant vessels inthe Gulf of Aden.- Despite this relative decline in the pirate success rate, there is an alarming increase in the absolute number of pirate attacks and anunprecedented expansion of pirate activity in the Indian Ocean, constituting a new phase of Somali piracy.- There have been a total of 19 successful hijackings and 81 reported pirate attacks in 2009, an increase of over 650% from the sameperiod last year. If this attack rate is sustained, it will easily surpass the record number of attacks (115) in 2008 and could climb above200 attacks in 2009.750500
Eritrea
Yemen
Sudan
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,!MV Shanghai Venture attacked6 April 2009 757nm or 1,403kmfrom the coast
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750
100
0
,!,!Uganda
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,!1250
Kenya
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MV Pompei hijacked 18 April 2009655nm or 1,215km from the coast1750
The depiction and use of boundaries, geographic names and related data shown here arenot warranted to be error-free nor do they imply official endorsement or acceptance by theUnited Nations. UNOSAT is a program of the United Nations Institute for Training andResearch (UNITAR), providing satellite imagery & related geographic information, researchand analysis to UN humanitarian & development agencies & their implementing partners.
Contact Information: info@unosat.org 24/7 Hotline: +41 764 8 7 4 9 9 8 w w w. u n o s a t . o r g
150
0
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500
StandardPirateMean Deviational AttackCenter Ellipse (SDE)Gulf Attacks before MSPA Implementation (Jan-Aug08)
MSPA (Closed 1 February 09)IRTC
!A!A!A!A!A
1st Cluster of Indian Ocean attacks May-June 20082st Cluster of Indian Ocean attacks Sept-Dec 2008
(IRTC) Westbound Vessel Transit(IRTC) Eastbound Vessel Transit
3rd Cluster of Indian Ocean attacks Feb-20April 2009MSPA Period (26 Aug 08 to 1 February 09)IRTC Period (1 Feb 09 to 20 April 09)Map 1: Spatial Analysis of Attacks in the Gulf of Aden
The standard deviational ellipse (SDE) is a analysis measurement of the spatial distributionand orientation of point event datasets.
MSPA
IRTC Period: Mean center ofattacks has shifted to the south-westby approx. 40 nautical miles
IRTC
sitTransselVe
FF200nm
100 nm
SDE of Gulf attacks has shifted southward& extended further east-west, indicatingrecent attacks are more uniformly distributedalong the main east-west axis of the IRTC
FF
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nm200
See Map 1 focus
Eritrea
Yemen
Map 2: Spatial Analysis of Attacks in the Indian Ocean
Sudan
MV Shanghai Venture attacked6 April 2009 757nm or 1,403kmfrom the coast
Gulf of AdenAttacks 2008-09m
Ethiopia
200n
m
IMB-recommended 600nm minimuntransit distance in the Indian Ocean.m
100n
300n
400n
m
700n
800n
900n
1st ClusterMay - June 2008
Congo
600n
MV Pompei hijacked 18 April 2009655nm or 1,215km from the coast
UnitedRepublic ofTanzania
300 nm
2nd ClusterSept.-Dec. 2008
1000The depiction and use of boundaries, geographicnames and related data shown here are notwarranted to be error-free nor do they imply officialendorsement or acceptance by the UnitedNations. UNOSAT is a program of the UnitedNations Institute for Training and Research(UNITAR), providing satellite imagery & relatedgeographic information, research and analysis toUN humanitarian & development agencies & theirimplementing partners.
Uganda
m
m
m
m
nm
Kenya
3rd Cluster5 Feb-20 April 2009
500n
m
1 00 n m
UNITAR - UNOSAT Analysis of Pirate Attacks in 200920April2009
2009AttackSummary(1Jan‐20April)SuccessfulHijackings10919AttemptedHijackings382462NavalInterventions26531PirateArrests10414Attacks(total)483381SuccessRate20.8%27.3%23.5%
GulfofAdenIndianOceanTotals
IncreasingNavalPressureinGulfofAdenPushesPiratesintoIndianOceanTherehasbeenadeclineinthepirateattacksuccessrateintheGulfofAden(vesselhijackings/totalattacks)sincelate2008,from27%inDecember2008toonly8%inMarch2009.Thisdeclinewasduelargelytothegrowingnavalpatrolsandheightenedsecuritypracticesofthemerchantvessels.Duringthistimetherewerealsoanincreasingnumberofdirectnavalinterventionstoreportedattacks,totaling24intheGulfofAdenin2009,alongwithatleast10separatearrests/capturesofpirates.
AttackSummarybyMonth(Dec.08‐20April09)(Code:(H)=SuccessfulHijacking;(A)=AttemptedHijacking
Dec‐08GulfofAden(H)GulfofAden(A)IndianOcean(H)IndianOcean(A)41101
Jan‐0921100
Feb‐091702
Mar‐09112414
Apr‐096858
It is apparent that this growing naval pressure has been a strong factor in the recent retargeting of pirate attacks to the Indian Ocean. ToillustratethesignificanceoftheIndianOceanasaresumedareaofpirateoperationsin2009,considerthatin2008therewereatotalofonly16reportedattacksand7successfulhijackings.Asof20April2009,intheIndianOceantherehavealreadybeen33reportedattacksand9successfulhijackings.Alloftheseattackshaveoccurredsince5Feb.2009.Asaresult,theattacksuccessratein2009ismoderatelyhigherintheIndianOcean(27.3%)thanintheGulfofAden(20.8%)atpresent.OfspecialinterestisthatforthemonthofApril2009,thesuccessratehasdramaticallyriseninboththeGulf(43%‐6hijackedvesselsoutofatotalof14attacks)andtheIndianOcean(38.5%‐5hijackedvesselsoutofatotalof13attacks)(Seealsothegraphonpage5).ThespecificfactorsforthissuccessrateincreaseintheGulfofAdenduringAprilisunclear,howeverifthepirategroupsareabletosustaintwoactivezones,ithasthedistinctpotentialtostretchnavalforcesthin,thusimprovingthehijacksuccessratestillfurtherandreducingthechancesofarrest.
HijackSuccessRate(Dec.08‐20April09)(HijackSuccessRate=Successfulhijackings/TotalAttempts)
Dec‐08GulfofAdenIndianOcean27.0%0.0%
Jan‐0915.0%0.0%
Feb‐0912.5%0.0%
Mar‐098.0%22.0%
Apr‐0943.0%39.0%
ChangingSpatialDimensionsofAttacksintheGulfofAdenThe implementation of the Maritime Security Patrol Area (MSPA) in August 2008 had a dramatic influence on pirate activity in the Gulf ofAden. As the map on page 2 illustrates, the spatial distribution of reported pirate attacks contracted spatially in pursuit of transit vesselstravellingthroughMSPA.Thereareseveralmeasurementsofthischange.Themeandistancebetweenreportedattacksfellfrom30.5kmforevents before MSPA to 24.6km after (from 26 Aug.‐21Nov). The standard deviational ellipse of attacks (a measure of event distribution)beforetheMSPAnarrowedconsiderablyaftertheMSPAalongthenorth‐southaxis.Further,themeancenterofattacksshiftedtothewestbyapproximately200km.TheoverallshiftwasthusaconcentrationofactivityalongtheMSPA,towardstheYemenicoastandtothewest.The implementation of the Internationally Recommended Transit Corridor (IRTC) on 2 February 2009, a revision of the MSPA, has had anequallydramaticimpactonpirateattacklocationsintheGulfin2009.AsshowninMap1onpage4,themeancenterofattacksaftertheIRTChasshiftedtothesouth‐westbyapproximately40nauticalmilesmatchingthesouthwardlocationoftheIRTC,closertothenorthernSomali(Somaliland / Puntland) coast. The standard deviational ellipse of attacks has shifted southward and extended further east‐west, indicatingthatrecentattacksintheGulfaremoreuniformlydistributedalongthemaineast‐westaxisoftheIRTCthanpreviouslyrecordedduringtheMSPAperiod.
ChangingSpatialDimensionsofIndianOceanAttacksAsillustratedinthegraphbelow,andinMap2onpage2,atimeseriesanalysisindicatestherehavebeen3temporalclustersofpirateattacksin the Indian Ocean since January 2008, with the most recent and dramatic period occurring between March – April 2009. Not only is thenumberofattacksincreasingbycluster,butthemeandistancebetweenattackslocationsandtheSomalicoastissteadilyincreasingaswell.ThefirstclusterofattacksinIndianOceanrecorded3attacksbetweenMay‐June2008withameandistancetotheSomalicoastof186nm(344km);thesecondclusterof13attacksoccurredfromSeptembertoDecember2008,withameandistancetothecoastof291nm(540km);Themostrecentclusterof33pirateattacksstaredinFebruary2009andhascontinuedtoexpandacrosstheIndianOceanwithacurrentmeandistancetotheSomalicoastof381nm(707km).Twoofthemostextremeattackshaveoccurredwithinthelasttwoweeks.ThehijackingoftheBelgiumvesselMVPompeion18April2009occurredatarecorddistanceof655nmor1,215kmfromthecoast,whileattemptedhijackingofthevesselMVShanghaiVentureon6April2009,occurredatarecorddistanceof757nmor1,403kmfromthecoast.Further,themaximumdistancebetweenreportedattacksintheIndianOceaninApril2009currentlystandsatover1,800nauticalmiles.Thesenumbersstronglysuggestanoperationalcapacityofpiratemothershipstostrikebeyondthedistanceof600nmannouncedbytheIMBonlyaweekearlierastherecommendedminimumtransitdistanceintheIndianOcean.__________________________________________
SomaliPirateAttackSuccessRate(December2008‐ 20April2009)(Successfulhijackings/TotalAttempts)45.0%40.0%35.0%SuccessRate
43.0%39.0%
30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%
27.0%22.0%15.0%12.5%8.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
GulfofAdenIndianOcean
27.0%0.0%
15.0%0.0%
12.5%0.0%
8.0%22.0%
43.0%39.0%
Dec‐08
Jan‐09
Feb‐09
Mar‐09 April‐09
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