I.
INTRODUCTION
1.      Thirty-three
members of the NATO PA Defence and Security Committee visited the United States from 22-25 January. Led by Chairman Julio Miranda Calha (Portugal), the NATO legislators met with their colleagues from the US Senate and the House
of Representatives as well as with government officials and independent
political analysts. The Assembly delegation also visited US Central Command and
Special Operations Command headquarters in Tampa, Florida. The discussions focused on a number of key issues,
including US “grand strategyâ€, anti-terrorism, combating the proliferation of
weapons of mass destruction (WMD), the rise of China, energy security and
homeland defense.
II.
 US Foreign Policy Challenges
2.      The
Committee met with Dr Hans Binnendijk, Director of the Center for
Technology and National Security Policy, National Defence University, who
discussed the need to alter the American “Grand Strategyâ€. He asserted that the
unilateralist policy of the current administration is on the verge of failure
and would certainly be reassessed by the next administration, regardless of its
political complexity. He cited the experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan, which clearly demonstrate that merely changing a regime in a country of
concern is not enough to maintain security and stability. In addition, due to
'neo-con' foreign policy ventures, the US military is suffering from
overstretch.
3.      According to Dr Binnendijk, in
reshaping the American Grand Strategy, US policymakers can essentially choose
from three options, representing three schools of thought:
1.
traditional-conservative,
which focuses on interests rather than values and emphasises the use of force;
2.
progressive-multilateralist,
which is more value-oriented and favours international frameworks and
alliances;
3.
offshore balances, a
concept according to which the US deploys its power abroad only when there are
direct threats to vital American interests and only in a few areas of the globe
are of strategic importance to the US. Offshore balancing prefers to rely
primarily on local actors to uphold the regional balance of power, thus
preventing the rise of potential hostile powers.
4.      Dr
Binnendijk argued that the new American Grand Strategy should incorporate
elements from all three paradigms in order to effectively address the
challenges facing the US in the new security environment.
5.      During a
meeting with a group of 11 US Congressmen, led by John Tanner, head of
the Congressional delegation to the NATO PA, Mr Tanner said that the change of
the majority in the Congress would not in itself bring about immediate
revisions of foreign policy, but it would place that policy under much closer
scrutiny. He also stressed that "in no time in history has NATO been more
relevant", a view echoed by other Congressmen who underscored the need to
strengthen transatlantic co-operation. The US needed help from its partners,
because otherwise the US Armed Forces face serious overstretch issues. Together
with their European colleagues, the American legislators also discussed the
importance of new challenges facing the transatlantic community, particularly
energy, environmental security, the rise of China, and policy in the Middle East.
6.      The Committee also met with Senator
John Warner, a ranking member of the Armed Services Committee. He emphasized
the importance of NATO and admitted that his previous opposition ofNATO
enlargement had been a mistake, and that the Alliance had greatly benefited
from the addition of new members. The Senator also spoke about the Resolution
that he and two other Senators had drafted calling for a reappraisal of
President Bush's forthcoming build-up of troops in Baghdad. Senator Warner
stressed that the Resolution was not binding, but US legislators nevertheless
wished to express their belief that the situation in Iraq could be improved
without sending more American soldiers there. The Resolution stated that the
primary objective of the overall US strategy in Iraq should be to encourage
Iraqi leaders to make political compromises that would foster reconciliation and
strengthen the unity government, ultimately leading to improvements in the
security situation. The Iraqi military should be charged with the primary
mission of combating sectarian violence.
7.      Responding
to the comment from David Crausby (United Kingdom) that the "job in Iraq
has to be finished", Senator Warned emphasised that the sponsors of the
Resolution do not call for a withdrawal or reduction of the US troops in Iraq,
but the job has to be finished in a way that had the best likelihood of
succeeding and which respected the views of voters who had made a clear
statement in the recent Congressional elections.
8.      On the
issue of Afghanistan, Dan Fata, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence
for European and NATO Policy, said that the US and its allies were making
impressive progress carrying out reconstruction projects. A lot is being done
on the security side as well. Nevertheless, 2007 is expected to be a critical
year in terms of reconstruction, equipping and training the Afghan National
Army and combating the Taliban. Frank Cook (United Kingdom) asked if the NATO
PA resolution on removing national caveats had been helpful, and Mr Fata
responded that this resolution had been mentioned on a number of occasions and
indeed was instrumental in demonstrating the acuteness of the problem. He
stressed that removing all operationally-restrictive caveats would be
enormously helpful in carrying missions in Afghanistan. Asked by Mr Crausby
about the problem of stemming narcotics production, Mr Fata said that it was
difficult to overestimate the seriousness of this issue and called for both
short- and long-term strategies in this field. He also mentioned that 90% of
Afghan opium went to Europe, and therefore European countries have an enormous
stake in solving this problem.
9.      Jerry
Feierstein, Deputy Co-ordinator for Programs and Plans, Office of the
Co-ordinator for Counter-Terrorism, US Department of State, said that the key
task was to transform ISAF from a peacekeeping to a counter-insurgency mission.
Asked by Sven Mikser (Estonia) about growing Taliban support among the Afghani
population, Mr Feierstein said that it might be related to a certain
disappointment with President Karzai's policies. However, he noted, the
Taliban's extreme ideology did not appeal to a majority of Afghanis, and
therefore the Taliban could not count on genuine support in the longer run.
10.    According
to Kurt Volker, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, the
situations in Afghanistan and Kosovo were, at the moment, the top priorities
for the US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice. These would certainly feature
prominently in discussion with Allies at the ministerial meetings on 26 January
in Brussels and 8-9 February in Seville. In Afghanistan, Mr Volker said,
it is critical to be well prepared for the Taliban's annual 'spring offensive',
to continue with police and army training and to co-ordinate better civilian
projects. Mr Michael Mates (United Kingdom) asked what was being done to deny
Taliban fighters a safe haven in the bordering areas of North-Western Pakistan.
Mr Volker replied that the President Musharraf of
Pakistan is facing an extremely difficult task in imposing central governmental
control, and the US is helping him as much as possible. He noted, however, that
it would be very difficult to defeat Taliban forces in the North-Western region
without the assistance of the local population. It was therefore necessary to
show that there would be benefits from getting rid of Taliban fighters by
following military actions with development projects.
11.    With
regard to Kosovo, there had to be a prompt UN Resolution on the new status of
the province, as a delay on this issue was not healthy. The 'Final Status' was
not an objective per se: the objective was a stable and democratic
Balkans, Mr Volker stressed.
12.    Dr
Michael Haltzel, Senior Fellow, SAIS Center for Transatlantic Relations,
predicted that the "Ahtisaari Group" would recommend the status of
"supervised independence" for Kosovo. He argued that further delays
in determining the final status of the province would be counter‑productive and
lead to outbursts of violence and the rise of extremist parties. Dr Haltzel was
particularly concerned that "pro-fascist" and reactionary forces
triumphed in the recent parliamentary elections in Serbia. He found it
unacceptable that PfP membership was offered to Serbia at this particular time.
When asked by Ursula Mogg (Germany) about the implications that the new status
might bring to the KFOR military mission, Dr Haltzel said that they should
remain in the province at least for some time in order to ensure that the
rights of Kosovo Serbs are respected.
III.
 Military Transformation and the Riga Summit
13.    Dr Hans
Binnendijk noted that the ongoing US military transformation had been too
focused on introducing high-tech capabilities, such as 'network-centric'
capabilities, that increase strike precision and operational tempo. While these
were excellent tools for winning modern wars, they seemed to be less effective
when it came to stifling insurgencies and establishing law and order in towns
and cities. Dr Binnendijk underlined the need for a more comprehensive approach
to transformation, to enlarge the military's repertoire with counter-insurgency
skills, and improve the capacity for enhancing stability and reconstruction.
Such changes were in fact reflected in the 2006 Quadrennial Defence Review
(QDR) and other documents.
14.    Dr
Binnedijk also discussed the outcomes of the NATO Riga Summit, which he said,
"will not go down in history as a great summit" but did highlight
four areas where progress had been made:
1.
Operational
commitments. The key question is whether the resources and troops will be made
available to fulfil these commitments. Here the role of parliaments is
particularly important.
2.
Strengthening NATO's
partnerships and improving the interoperability of armed forces;
3.
Military transformation
of the Alliance. A dozen initiatives in this area were endorsed in Riga,
although some of these initiatives were not new.
4.
The Balkans. The 'open
door' policy was reiterated at Riga. A positive surprise decision – to grant
PfP membership to Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia.
15.    However,
no tangible progress was achieved in certain important areas such as:
1.
Energy security;
2.
Homeland defence;
3.
NATO's new Strategic
Concept.
16.    The concerns over energy and
homeland security were also shared by Mr Volker who was very positive about the
role NATO plays in today's world. He emphasised that NATO is becoming more
efficient, robust and pro-active; it has successfully engaged in new missions
such as humanitarian relief in Pakistan, Active Endeavour in the Mediterranean
and logistical assistance in Darfur. The Alliance is also expanding its
partnerships and maintaining its 'open door' policy. The NRF is also a
tremendous innovation. With respect to drafting a new NATO Strategic Concept,
Mr Volker believed that this should only take place when the current
process of transformation was finished.
17.    Mr Fata provided his assessment
of the Riga summit, singling out five major factors that reflect the American
attitude towards NATO:
1.
NATO matters. NATO is the only existing capable
military alliance. In recent years, it has been repeatedly called upon to carry
out operations. It is important to retain America's interest in NATO.
2.
NATO is transforming. The Alliance seeks to be more
expeditionary. An excellent illustration is the decision of 15 countries (14
NATO allies and Sweden) to establish a consortium to acquire strategic airlift
capabilities. Next steps might include closer co-operation in the fields of
logistics or UAVs.
3.
Afghanistan is
forcing NATO transformation.
The NATO mission in Afghanistan clearly demonstrated what capabilities need to
be enhanced.
4.
Some Allies are not
transforming fast enough.
Only seven countries out of 26 assigned 2% of their GDP to defence sector, and
two of these are essentially arming against each other.
5.
Riga is not an
end-point of transition, but just one stop. NATO transformation and enlargement must continue
and public support for these processes is vital.
18.    Dr Chantal De Jonge Oudraat,
Senior Fellow, SAIS Center for Transatlantic Relations, presented a more
academic perspective on the future of NATO, singling out four schools of
thought:
1.
The “Realist†or
"NATO will disappear" school of thought. The Realists argue that the
end of the Cold War has fundamentally changed the strategic landscape; that the
US and Europe no longer face shared threats to their survival and therefore
they no longer need to stick together.
2.
The “Minimalist†line
which believes that NATO should focus on its core functions (Article 5) and
should not get entangled in global crisis management operations outside of
Europe. Many new NATO members in particular value the collective defense aspect
of NATO. They believe in the importance of keeping the US engaged in Europe as
an offshore balancer against a possibly resurgent Russia.
3.
The “Maximalistâ€
position which maintains that NATO should remain in the centre of transatlantic
relationship, and that the Alliance should address common challenges such as
proliferation, anti-terrorism and failing states.
4.
The “Globalist†view,
or the "NATO should go global" school of thought which insists that
the challenges are global and that for NATO to continue to be relevant it needs
to respond to these challenges.
19.    Dr De Jong
Oudraat thought that all these schools were slightly off-target. The Minimalist
position was too weak a foundation to keep NATO alive, while Maximalists and
Globalists failed to admit that the particular attraction of NATO in Central
and Eastern Europe based on old 'balance of power' type of reasons and not
NATO's role in tackling new global security problems.
20.    Therefore
the speaker argued for a fifth approach: the “Instrumentalist†or "NATO as
a toolbox" approach. NATO was no longer the strategic forum where
the US and Europe decided on key strategic issues. That did not mean that NATO
would become irrelevant or had to disappear, but that the organization needed
to change and become a more technical and functional organization. NATO had
proven to be an excellent peacekeeper and a provider of stability. However, it
cannot do these types of operations alone. The speaker argued that the UN was
NATO's best partner and that there was a natural division of labour between
them. Mr Mikser and Dr Haltzel challenged this notion of "NATO as a
toolbox", noting that the United Nations is not the only source of
international legitimacy: for instance, in case of an ongoing genocide,
democratic nations had a moral right to intervene.
IV.
 Counter-terrorism and Homeland Security
21.    Echoing
what Dr Binnendijk had said about US military transformation, Mario Mancuso,
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for Special Operations and Combating
Terrorism, stated that American military forces are transforming in order to
meet new security challenges, particularly the rise of global terrorism. The
nature of the enemy - as was realised after the 9/11 attacks - has changed
dramatically. Instead of traditional states, the US is facing threats from
networks, organisations and even individuals. Before 911, Al Qaeda had been
viewed as a hierarchical organization, while it was now perceived more as a
movement with a “flatter†structure. In practice it was not a religious or cultural
movement, but it had a political agenda which included the expulsion of the US
and the West from the Middle East and the restoration of the caliphate.Â
22.    Mr Mancuso
singled out three key elements in US strategy to tackle the terrorist threat:
1.
the defensive facet,
i.e., homeland security;
2.
the offensive facet,
i.e., attacking terrorist organisations. The speaker underlined that, according
to American strategic thinking, the Global War on Terror (GWOT) is not
primarily a military struggle. While it includes an important military
dimension, GWOT also involves prosecuting the leaders of international
terrorism, cutting off its financial support, preventing the emergence of safe
havens for terrorists, etc.
3.
the ideological facet,
i.e., developing communities of interest and working with Muslims to help
counter those who seek to misrepresent Islam in order to pursue their own
political and terrorist agendas.
23.    The 2006
QDR clearly recognized the need to boost both the numbers and capabilities of
special operation forces.
24.    Mr Cook
and Mrs. Mogg questioned the effectiveness of US efforts on the ideological
front, referring to well-publicized cases of mistreatment of prisoners. Mr
Mancuso stressed that such cases certainly did not represent the policy of the
United States, and -on the contrary – were violations of US policy. Sofia
Kalantzakou (Greece), Mr Crausby and Sir John Stanley (United Kingdom)
noted that Western countries were not succeeding in winning the hearts and
minds of their own Muslim populations. Mr Mancuso partly disagreed with this
assessment, pointing out that the overwhelming majority of American Muslims
were loyal citizens of the United States, many of them serving, for
instance, in the State Department or in the US armed forces, including in Iraq.
Nevertheless, he agreed that more needed to be done to integrate Muslim
communities living in Western countries.
25.    Dr Esther Brimmer, Deputy Director &
Director of Research, SAIS Center for Transatlantic Relations, stressed that
adequate attention must be paid not only to out-of-area missions, but also to
homeland defence. Thus Ministries of Interior and first responders were
important actors in the domain of international security. She further argued
that homeland security is an important subset of the larger concept of societal
security, which should not only address issues of physical protection, but also
take account of societal cohesion. By cohesion she referred to those values and
qualities that bind a community together and are relevant to security -
democracy, the rule of law and civil liberties, education, welfare, and
pluralism. US security policies must not degrade these features, which are
central to what makes the society worth defending in the first place,
Dr Brimmer argued. As far as NATO is concerned, the notion of societal
security implies that partnership relations can be established only with those
countries that share our system of values.
V.
Public Diplomacy
26.    Colleen
Graffy, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy, addressed
an important issue of public perceptions of the Alliance’s role and missions.Â
Noting that many people think of NATO as a primarily military entity and even
as a Cold War relic, she urged parliamentarians to contribute more to raising
awareness about the Alliance and improving its profile. She also suggested
making more extensive use of new technologies such as internet and visuals, and
reinvigorating the national Atlantic Councils as important means of reaching
young people.
27.    Ms. Graffy
particularly emphasised the need to reinforce public awareness of the progress
made by coalition forces in Afghanistan. Five years on, there was a great deal
of good news – from security to education to health care. The population was
free and taking advantage of increasing political and economic opportunities.
Rights for women had been established, and women held 68 of the 188 seats in
the lower house of the parliament. In recent years, more than 500 schools,
which serve 40,000 students, had been built. At least 80% of the population had
access to at least basic health care, compared to only 8% in 2001. The value of
the country's economy had increased three-fold since 2002.
28.    Some
members doubted if the situation in Afghanistan could be depicted in such rosy
terms, while others made some practical suggestions for improving public
diplomacy, including engaging English-speaking Afghani female parliamentarians
to talk to Western audiences about progress in Afghanistan, and to win over
mullahs who were powerful influences on Afghani domestic public opinion.Â
Roland Kortenhorst (The Netherlands) pointed out that, while trying to identify
key influencers in the country, one had to be aware of vast cultural
differences between people in provinces and Afghani elite living in Kabul. Rasa
Jukneviciene (Lithuania) noted that the experience of ex-Communist countries
could be useful to encourage Afghani people in their efforts to break with the
past.
VI.
 Non-proliferation
29.    Dr
Henry D. Sokolski, Executive Director, Non-proliferation Policy Education
Center, addressed today’s most outstanding proliferation challenges - nuclear
and missile programmes in North Korea and Iran. With respect to North Korea, Dr
Sokolski was doubtful that North Korea could be persuaded to renounce its
nuclear weapons, and this could lead to various forms of instability in the
region, including war.
30.    Dr
Sokolski discussed the issue of Iran in more detail, as it directly concerned
the transatlantic community. Iran's ballistic missiles already cast a shadow
over most of Europe, and he predicted that Iran could have nuclear warheads in
up to four years. In addition to directly threatening neighbouring countries, a
nuclear Iran could become a model and an impetus for neighbouring countries:
the Gulf Co-operation Council, for instance, had declared an interest in civil
nuclear power, although there was no convincing rationale for it in the region.
31.    The
speaker suggested trying a 'cold war' against Iran in order to avoid a 'hot war'.
for example, economic sanctions would be a serious blow to Iran whose trade
with the EU topped $25 billion last year. He asserted that the West should
not be deterred by Iran's threats to use its vast oil and gas resources for
political leverage. The importance of these resources to the global economy was
overestimated. The Iranian oil sector was suffering from a lack of investment
and output was essentially flat. In addition, international strategic oil
reserves were growing, and it was by no means certain that Iran would have
access to all its foreign currency reserves. Furthermore, plans were being
developed for new pipelines that would transport Persian Gulf oil bypassing the
Strait of Hormuz, the traditional oil route that Iran threatens to take control
of in case of a conflict. The potential loss of Iranian oil would not be more
than 1% of US GDP.
32.    Dr
Sokolski therefore argued that the international community could take a firm
approach which should apply to any country which violated non-proliferation
norms. He also called for an end to state subsidies for new nuclear power
plants in the EU and the US.
33.    Sharon
Squassoni, Specialist in National Defence, Congressional Research Service,
briefed the members of the Committee on the current status of various
international agreements on non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction,
including
1.
the Proliferation
Security Initiative of 2003, designed to interdict illegal shipments of
WMD-related material;
2.
the Global Threat
Reduction Initiative of 2004, which aims
to minimize as quickly as possible the amount of nuclear material available
that could be used for nuclear weapons;
3. the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism of
2006, designed to build
the capacity of willing nations to combat nuclear terrorism;
4.
the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership of 2006, which
seeks to to form an
international partnership to reprocess spent nuclear fuel in a way that renders
the plutonium in it usable for nuclear fuel but not for nuclear weapons;
34.    Ms. Squassoni
noted that the Bush administration prefers informal or bilateral agreements to
international frameworks. For the current US government, only what states do
really matters, not the principles and norms. An excellent example of such a
policy is the US-India nuclear deal. The role of the Congress is also
important: it passes relevant legislation in the field of non-proliferation,
introducing sanctions to Iran and Syria, for example. The 110th
Congress is likely to follow developments in Iran and North Korea, and it may
also discuss ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and other
proliferation-related issues.
35.    When asked by Sir John Stanley
about the US position towards strengthening the Biological Weapons Convention,
Ms. Squassoni referred to the reluctance of the current administration to
support any intrusive international verification mechanisms. She predicted that
only with the next administration one could expect changes in the US policy in
this regard.
VII.
 Energy security
36.    Gregory
Manuel, Special Advisor to the Secretary of State and International Energy
Co‑ordinator, said that energy security was one of the top priorities for the
current administration as it has important economic, geo-political and
environmental implications. A number of US agencies deal with different aspects
of energy security. For example, even the Department of Agriculture is involved
through its biofuel projects. Thus, American energy policy is essentially an
inter-agency endeavour, involving efforts and assets of different bodies. In
addition, the academic and private sectors are being increasingly engaged in
shaping the US energy policy.
37.    Mr Manuel
described a number of projects carried out by US agencies and designed to
provide alternatives to traditional hydrocarbon fuel. He particularly
underscored the prospects of biofuels that provide incredible opportunities for
many countries. Thanks to investments in producing this type of fuel, Brazil,
for example, has become energy-independent. Nuclear energy also deserves more
attention. However, projects designed to secure supplies of conventional fossil
fuels, for instance from the Caspian Sea region, also remain a priority for the
US.
38.    Mr Kortenhorst asked whether the
quest for alternative energy sources is hampered by giant oil and gas companies
that might feel a threat to their dominance in the energy sector. Mr Manuel
replied that major oil companies, such as Shell or BP, understand new trends in
the energy domain and are trying to adapt to them and invest in R&D in new
technologies. In fact, Mr Manuel said, these companies prefer the label
"energy companies". In reply to a question from Mr Mates on the
US position on the Kyoto Protocol, the speaker replied that the Protocol was
problematic on many fronts. It was particularly disappointing that the
developing world, including China, one of the world's biggest emitter of
greenhouse gases, did not have any obligations under this agreement. Therefore,
the US believed that Kyoto should not be considered as the only format to deal
with global greenhouse gas emissions. For instance, Mr Manuel asserted, the
US-India nuclear deal would be more instrumental in reducing these emissions
than implementation of the Kyoto objectives by all European countries combined.
VIII.
 Other issues
39.    In his
presentation, Kevin Pollpeter, China Project Manager for Defence Group
Incorporated's Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis (CIRA), briefed
the committee on the modernisation of the Chinese People's Liberation Army
(PLA) and the potential security challenge that it represents to regional
stability. He said that the PLA is not yet as advanced as NATO armies, but it
is heading in that direction. The Beijing's new military doctrine focuses more
on advanced technology, precision, agility and better intelligence,
reconnaissance and command and control capabilities. Mr Pollpeter also noted
the recent news that the Chinese military had
conducted an anti-satellite (ASAT) test against an aging Chinese weather
satellite. This test calls into question its longstanding opposition to space
weapons. It also caused serious concerns in the US military which relies
heavily on reconnaissance and navigation provided by its satellites.
40.    The modernisation of Taiwan's
armed forces, on the other hand, is stagnating: it is not purchasing modern
equipment, the command structure remains archaic, and defence spending is
declining. One could even gather an impression that the US cares more about the
defence of the island than Taiwan itself does. The US wants Taipei to
contribute more: otherwise American military assistance should not be taken for
granted. Luckily, in Mr Pollpeter's view, Beijing seems to be
"risk-averse", and more focussed on socio-economic domestic issues
and reluctant to escalate tensions with Taiwan. The US has to walk a middle
road, Mr Pollpeter said, deterring Beijing on one hand and promoting closer
ties between the two Chinese countries on the other. In a long-term
perspective, the speaker believed some kind of confederation between the two
countries might be a feasible solution.
41.    Dr
Ariel Cohen, Senior Research Fellow, The Heritage Foundation, briefed the
Committee on developments in the Black Sea region. He emphasised that the
region is a patchwork of overlapping civilizations and spheres of influence.
The Black Sea basin is a strategic region bordering the Greater Middle East and
a key transit route for Caspian oil. European consumers would gain tremendously
from pipeline diversification, enhancing Europe's energy security and breaking
Russia's transit monopoly.
42.    However
energy is not the only commodity shipped through the Black Sea. The same
shipping lanes are used for traffic in narcotics, persons (including
terrorists), conventional weapons and even components for WMD. Therefore the
US, NATO and the EU have participated in a number of initiatives to improve
security in the Black Sea, such as NATO military exercises. However, there has
been regional opposition to these endeavours from regional powers, particularly
Russia, on the grounds that these are excessive “Western interferenceâ€. There
is also concern that Russia and increasingly Turkey are looking away from the
West. Russia is focused on maintaining regional hegemony and using its energy
resources to achieve its foreign policy goals. Further complicating Black Sea
regional security are the frozen conflicts in the region: South Ossetia and
Abkhazia in Georgia and Transdnistra in Moldova. Until the conflicts are
resolved, ruling elites in these “statelets†will frustrate efforts to
establish a lasting peace in the region.
43.    In his
concluding remarks, Dr Cohen suggested that the West should:
·
increase NATO's
presence in the region and strengthening co-operation with non-NATO countries,
especially Ukraine and Georgia;
·
assuage Turkey's
concerns about losing its dominant position in the Black Sea basin,
·
encourage the littoral
states, especially Bulgaria and Romania, to take the lead in multilateral
regional organisations and initiatives,
·
urge Russia to change
its stance vis-Ã -vis Georgia and push for renewed multilateral talks over the
resolution of the frozen conflicts.
44.    Anne
Richard, a Non-resident Fellow, SAIS Center for Transatlantic Relations,
discussed the problems with delivering international aid to the US after the
Hurricane Katrina disaster. Some of the contributions proved immensely helpful:
for instance, NATO organized flights of relief supplies, the Mexican Army ran a
canteen in San Antonio, Texas for relief workers and evacuees, and Unicef school
kits helped young evacuees. However, the speaker emphasised that the
responsible US entities responded to foreign offers in an often unacceptable
and embarrassing manner. The US needs to elaborate explicit mechanisms to
handle international aid in the future. The State Department should issue a
pre-approved list of useful goods and services, developed with input from other
agencies and disaster experts. In addition, rules must be developed regarding
which regulations (like those governing food inspections and use of doctors
from overseas) can be waived during an emergency.
IX.
 CENTCOM and SOCOM
45.    On January
25, the NATO PA delegation visited the MacDill Air Force Base, which is home to
the US Central Command (CENTCOM) and Special Operation Command (SOCOM). Col Michael
Greer briefed the members on the functioning of CENTCOM, which is one of the five geographically
defined unified commands within the Department of Defense. Its area of responsibility stretches from the
Horn of Africa to Central Asia, covering 27 countries with 663 million people.
This is potentially one of the most volatile regions of the world with 65% of
the world's known oil reserves, a multiplicity of ethnic and linguistic groups
and rivalries, and only 1% of the world's fresh water. Income per capita also
varies greatly. The main challenges for the US military in the region include
the training of Iraqi and Afghani security forces and increasingly engaging
them in maintaining law and order in their countries, denying Taliban and Al Qaeda
people a safe haven, tackling the problem of narcotics in Afghanistan,
preventing sectarian violence in Iraq, ensuring maritime security, deterring
Iran and further developing humanitarian relief capabilities. Asked by NATO
parliamentarians about the Taliban's "spring offensive",
Col Greer replied that the US forces are prepared for this and do not
expect many surprises.
46.    In
addition to dealing with many security concerns in the region, CENTCOM has
established extensive relations with allied and partner countries. It hosts an
impressive number of liaison officers from allied and partner counties. In
addition an integrated international staff element, the Combined Planning Group
(CPG), was established to directly advise the Combat Force Commander and on
long-term strategic military planning. Col. Georg Pazdrazki from
Germany, presenting an overview of the CPG, compared its work to that of a
think tank whose impact on the decision-making process is difficult to assess.
CPG experts from 27 countries examine various strategic developments in
CENTCOM's area of responsibility, including political, economical, cultural and
technological factors, and present their conclusions and recommendations to
American military commanders.
47.    LTG
Dell Dailey, Director, Center for Special Operations, SOCOM, introduced the
force structure and core tasks of US special operations forces (SOF) which
include land, naval, air force and marine components. After the 9/11 attacks,
SOCOM is mainly tasked with fighting international terrorism. More
specifically, these tasks can include:
·
synchronising
Department of Defence efforts in the Global War on Terror (GWOT);
·
counter-terrorism -
measures taken to prevent, deter and respond to terrorism;
·
foreign internal
defence - providing training and other assistance to foreign governments;
·
counter-proliferation
of WMD - actions taken to locate, identify, seize and destroy or capture such
weapons and related material;
·
special reconnaissance
to acquire information concerning capabilities, intentions and activities of an
enemy;
·
unconventional warfare
- actions to topple rogue regimes;
·
direct action –
short-duration strikes to seize, destroy or capture or inflict damage in denied
areas;
·
psychological
operations, designed to influence foreign audiences to regard US military
operations in a favourable light;
·
information operations,
designed to adversely affect enemy information and systems while protecting US
information and systems;
·
civil affairs
operations, designed to facilitate relations between US forces and foreign
civil authorities in areas such as infrastructure, education or health care, in
order to win the hearts and minds of civilian population.
48.    LTG Dailey
pointed out that GWOT presents a specific challenge: in traditional warfare it
is relatively easy to find and identify a target, but it rather difficult to
destroy it. In GWOT, the situation is vice versa: targets are hard to
locate but once found are relatively easy to destroy. He also stressed the
importance of psychological operations, because 21st century warfare
is more about will and perception than it is about territory taken or enemies
killed.
49.    The
presentations of LTC Rohm and Col. Smith also dealt with psychological
operations (Psyops). NATO parliamentarians were shown several samples of videos
and posters conveying anti-terrorist messages for Iraqi or Afghani populations.
Although it is difficult to assess the effectiveness of Psyops, it appears that
such messages have produced results such as increases in the number of phone
calls to authorities concerning terrorist-related information.
50.    Mr Stan
Schrager, Strategic Communication Advisor, SOCOM, spoke about a
collaborative SOCOM and STRATCOM project called "Sovereign
Challenge", designed to produce ideas for mobilizing international “soft
power†assets in order to defeat terrorism. The overall goal was to win over
public opinion to the cause of protecting their nation’s sovereignty from
terrorism, and to encourage nations to put in place policies and mechanisms to
counter terrorist activities such as transfers of funds, travel and
communications, training, recruitment, and – of course – acts of violence. Mr
Schrager highlighted the results of the two Sovereign Challenge conferences
that took place in 2005 and 2006, where military representatives from many
countries came together to discuss how all nations can address these issues and
create a political and ideological climate that is hostile to terrorism. He
stressed that terrorism was a global phenomenon, and therefore close
cooperation among sovereign nations was crucial. The "Sovereign
Challenge" project provided a tool for exchanging information through its
conferences and its website.
51.    Sir Stanley doubted if stressing
terrorism’s threat to "sovereignty" was the most effective means of
mobilizing opposition to terrorism. Many dictators often invoked sovereignty
as a shield to prevent the international community from interfering in their
"domestic affairs" and stopping violations of human rights. He
suggested using the term "freedom" instead. Mr Schrager agreed with
Sir John’s point, but explained that by "sovereignty" he meant not so
much "state sovereignty", but rather the sovereignty of the
individual, family or community, which chooses to live free from violence and
insecurity.
52.    The global
nature of contemporary terrorism was also emphasised by Col. Evelio Otero,
International Engagement Program (IEP), SOCOM. The key task of IEP is to
develop relationships with military planners in selected partner nations,
including placing American officers in partner countries' counter-terrorism
planning staffs. IEP provided SOCOM with the mechanism to identify partner
nation's planning shortfalls, to help them redress those shortfalls, and to
co-ordinate counter-terrorism operations.
