The Lancet 2006; 367:44-51
DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(06)67923-3
Mortality in the Democratic Republic of
Congo: a nationwide survey
Benjamin Coghlan a b, Richard J Brennan
c
, Pascal Ngoy d, David Dofara d, Brad Otto e,
Mark Clements b and Tony Stewart a
Summary
Background
Commencing in 1998, the war in the Democratic Republic of Congo has been a humanitarian disaster, but
has drawn little response from the international community. To document rates and trends in mortality and
provide recommendations for political and humanitarian interventions, we did a nationwide mortality survey
during AprilJuly, 2004.
Methods
We used a stratified three-stage, household-based cluster sampling technique. Of 511 health zones, 49 were
excluded because of insecurity, and four were purposely selected to allow historical comparisons. From the
remainder, probability of selection was proportional to population size. Geographical distribution and size of
cluster determined how households were selected: systematic random or classic proximity sampling. Heads
of households were asked about all deaths of household members during January, 2003, to April, 2004.
Findings
19 500 households were visited. The national crude mortality rate of 2·1 deaths per 1000 per month (95% CI
1·62·6) was 40% higher than the sub-Saharan regional level (1·5), corresponding to 600 000 more deaths
than would be expected during the recall period and 38 000 excess deaths per month. Total death toll from
the conflict (19982004) was estimated to be 3·9 million. Mortality rate was higher in unstable eastern
provinces, showing the effect of insecurity. Most deaths were from easily preventable and treatable illnesses
rather than violence. Regression analysis suggested that if the effects of violence were removed, all-cause
mortality could fall to almost normal rates.
Interpretation
The conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo remains the world's deadliest humanitarian crisis. To save
lives, improvements in security and increased humanitarian assistance are urgently needed.
Affiliations
a Centre for International Health, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia
b National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra,
Australia
c International Rescue Committee, New York, NY 10168, USA
d International Rescue Committee, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo
e Centre for International Health, Burnet Institute, Bali, Indonesia