Det Energipolitiske Udvalg 2005-06
EPU Alm.del Bilag 68
Offentligt
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WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2005
Middle East & North Africa Insights
Chief Economist Dr. Fatih Birol
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
IN N
TER ATIO AL
N
EN G AG C
ER Y EN Y
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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Global Energy
Trends: Reference
Scenario
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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International Energy Price Assumptions
The assumed oil-price path in the Reference Scenario has
been revised upwards from
WEO-2004
, in response to the
results of detailed analysis of investment prospects:
International oil prices (WTI) assumed to ease from recent
peaks to $46 in 2010 rebounding to $74 in 2030 in nominal
terms
In next few years, crude oil production capacity additions,
new refinery investments & slower demand growth is
expected to drive down prices
But limited spare refining capacity, the rising cost of non-
MENA crude projects and producer price targets/quotas
could temper that decline
Higher oil prices result in lower oil-demand, that reaches
115 mb/d in 2030 – 6 mb/d less than in
WEO-2004
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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World Primary Energy Demand
18 000
16 000
14 000
12 000
Mtoe
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
1970
1971
1980
1990
2000
Coal
Other renewables
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
2030
2010
2020
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
Oil and gas together account for more than 60% of the growth in
energy demand between now and 2030 in the Reference Scenario
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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Energy-Related CO
2
Emissions by Region
2003
Other
11%
2030
India
6%
Other
16%
M ENA
8%
India
4%
China
16%
M ENA
6%
China
19%
T ransition
economies
11%
OECD
52%
Transition
e conomie s
9%
OECD
42%
24 Gt
37 Gt
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
Global emissions grow by just over half between now and 2030, with
the bulk of the increase coming from developing countries
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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OECD Oil Demand Growth by Sector,
1999-2004
2.0
1.5
1.0
mb/d
0.5
0.0
Power
generation
Industry
Transport
Other
-0.5
-1.0
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
In the OECD, the transport sector accounted for almost all the oil
demand growth
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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World Light Oil Product Demand & Crude Oil
Quality
55.0
32.5
50.0
32.0
45.0
31.5
mb/d
40.0
31.0
35.0
30.5
30.0
30.0
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
World Light Oil Product Demand
Average Crude Oil Quality
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
Oil quality will fall while light product demand will rise -
a key challenge for the refining industry
API
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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World Oil Production Shifts Away from OECD
10.2 mb/d
2.2 mb/d
13.5 mb/d
20.2 mb/d
30.9 mb/d
OECD
MENA
Other
NCO
41.2 mb/d
50.5 mb/d
29.0 mb/d
2004
2030
Global oil production climbs from 82 mb/d in 2004 to
115 mb/d in 2030; OECD share falls from 25% to 12%
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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MENA Share in World Oil and Gas Reserves &
Production, 2004
Proven oil reserves
Oil production
Proven gas
reserves
Gas production
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
MENA share of global oil & gas reserves is much higher than its share of
current production, suggesting strong potential for growth
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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MENA Energy
Trends
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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MENA Crude Oil & NGL Production by Country
50
40
mb/d
30
20
10
0
1970
Iran
Iraq
1980
Kuwait
1990
2000
2010
Saudi Arabia
2020
UAE
2030
North Africa
Other Middle East
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
MENA’s share of world oil production rises from 35% in 2004 to 44% in
2030 in the RS, with Saudi production rising to over 18 mb/d
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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MENA Natural Gas Exports
Billion cubic metres
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
MENA becomes the world’s leading gas exporter, with most of the
increase in exports meeting surging European & US LNG demand
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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MENA Oil Exports through the “Dire Straits”
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
Much of the additional oil and LNG exports from MENA in the future will
be shipped through just three maritime routes
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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Saudi Arabia’s Oil Production by Source in the
Reference Scenario
20
16
12
mb/d
8
4
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Currently producing fields
Reserve additions and new discoveries
Fields awaiting development
Total production
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
Based on its reserves and global demand trends,
Saudi oil production is projected to reach 18 mb/d in 2030
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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Iran’s Oil Balance in the Reference Scenario
8
6
mb/d
4
2
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Net exports
Domestic demand
Iran oil production reaches 6.8 mb/d in 2030, but exports increase
less rapidly due to strong growth in domestic demand
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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Oil Production Outlook in Iraq in the Reference
Scenario
8
6
mb/d
4
2
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Currently producing fields
Reserve additions and new discoveries
Fields awaiting development
Total production
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
Oil production in Iraq is expected to reach around 3 mb/d in 2010 and
8 mb/d in 2030, provided that stability and security are restored
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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MENA Oil & Gas Export Revenues
2004
2030
Other MENA
Qatar
2%
6%
Algeria
6%
Libya
7%
Saudi
Arabia
32%
Other MENA
7%
Qatar
5%
Saudi Arabia
35%
Algeria
10%
Libya
6%
Kuwait
9%
Iran
11%
Iraq
6%
UAE
11%
Kuwait
10%
Iran
11%
Iraq
16%
UAE
10%
$313 billion (2004)
$635 billion (2004)
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
MENA hydrocarbon revenues double by 2030 - the share from gas
almost triples to 13%
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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Total MENA Energy Investment, 2004-2030
Other North Africa
Libya
Egypt
Kuwait
Iraq
Algeria
UAE
Qatar
Other Middle East
Iran
Saudi Arabia
0
50
100
150
200
billion dollars (2004)
Oil
Gas
250
300
350
Electricity
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
About $1.5 trillion, or $56 billion per year, of investment are needed to
expand capacity & replace facilities that are retired
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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Implications of
Deferred
Investment
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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Deferred Investment Scenario
How would global energy markets evolve if investment
MENA upstream oil industry grew slower than in the
Reference Scenario?
Investment is assumed to remain constant at its share of
historical GDP in each country
MENA oil production is lower compared to the Reference
Scenario, and the gap is widening over time
Oil prices are driven higher - an increase of 32% over the
Reference Scenario in 2030 - dragging up gas, coal and
electricity prices
MENA gas production is also lower compared to the
Reference Scenario due to
Reduced global gas demand & call on MENA gas
Lower associated oil/gas output
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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MENA Crude Oil Production (including NGLs)
60
50
40
mb/d
30
20
10
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Difference
Reference Scenario
Deferred Investment Scenario
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
MENA’s share of global oil production falls from 35% in 2004 to 33% in
the DIS. Saudi production reaches 14 mb/d in 2030
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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MENA Net Natural Gas Exports
500
400
206 bcm
300
bcm
116 bcm
200
24 bcm
100
0
2003
2010
2020
2030
Reference Scenario
Deferred Investment Scenario
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
MENA gas exports are much lower in the DIS, as higher gas prices &
lower GDP choke off demand in the main importing regions
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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World
Alternative
Policy Scenario
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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Oil/Gas Demand in the Reference and
Alternative Policy Scenarios
140
120
12.1 mb/d
6000
5000
500 bcm
100
mb/d
80
4000
bcm
3000
60
40
20
0
Oil
2004
2030 Reference Scenario
Gas
2030 Alternative Scenario
2000
1000
0
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
Oil & gas demand in the Alternative Scenario are both 10% lower in
2030 due to significant energy savings and a shift in the energy mix
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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Global Energy-Related CO
2
Emissions in the
Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios
40 000
35 000
million tonnes of CO
2
30 000
25 000
20 000
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Coal
Oil
Gas
Alternative Policy Scenario
Reference Scenario
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
In 2030, CO
2
emissions are 16% lower than in the Reference Scenario,
but are still more than 50% higher than 1990
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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Difference in Cost of Oil Consumption in the
Alternative and Deferred Investment vs.
Reference Scenario, 2005-2030
8 000
6 000
4 000
billion dollars (2004)
2 000
0
-2 000
-4 000
-6 000
-8 000
Deferred Investment
Alternative Scenario
Additional
investment
in energy
efficiency
Additional
oil cost
Net savings
Savings in
oil cost
In the Alternative Scenario, the cost of additional investments in energy
efficiency are more than offset by savings in fuel cost
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y
 EPU, Alm.del - 2005-06 - Bilag 68: Meddelelse vedrørende de power-point-plancher, som blev anvendt til mødet den 24/11-2005 med Det Internationale EnergiAgentur.
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Key Messages
If governments stick with current policies, global energy needs
will be more than 50% higher in 2030 than today
In any plausible scenario, MENA oil & gas resources will be
critical to meeting the world’s growing appetite for energy
Countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Qatar and Algeria will play
key roles
Further underinvestment in oil and gas would drive up prices &
depress global GDP growth, eventually harming producers too
Major importing countries are already considering more
vigorous policies to curb demand growth & reduce reliance on
oil and gas
Continued need for dialogue between producers and consumers
to find mutually beneficial outcomes
IN
TERNATIO AL
N
ENERG AG C
Y EN Y